September 25, 2007

Las Vegas Housing Crash Update: August cancellation rate hits unbelievable 53% in August. Wow.

As in wow, I can't believe 47% of the fools who had new home contracts actually went ahead and CLOSED!

Also note in the article that Vegas is the #1 most overbuilt housing market in America. Uh, ya think? HP poster children Phoenix, Miami and Orlando and West Palm are also up there.

Bottom line - there are millions of homes out there that we simply don't need. And even with new home builders going to fire sale prices, the units still aren't moving, since people can no longer get a mortgage.
Classic end to a classic mania. Why are some idiots still debating us? It's over. O-V-E-R. The sheeple don't believe the lies anymore.

Home Builders Research released its stats Monday that show the cancellation rate on purchases of new homes in the valley jumped to 53 percent in August.

The rate had been closer to 30 percent two months ago before lenders starting tightening credit. Lenders are requiring higher credit scores, and those who don't have good credit are required to put down a greater down payment or pay higher interest rates.

Even people with good credit are finding it harder to get jumbo loans of $417,000 and above. Those who can't document their income are also having difficulty getting loans.

"Buyers are certainly not canceling because they are changing their minds," said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research. "They are canceling because something has changed in their monthly payments."

The cancellation rates have been evident in homebuilders drastically dropping their prices in the last two to three months.


Anonymous said...

53% cancels equals 53% of deals REALTORS thought they were going to get paid didn't get paid!

Anonymous said...

wow, should be 99 percent, if people were smart - but as we know they are not.

Stuck in So Pa said...

"They are canceling because something has changed in their monthly payments."

Looks like even the "smart" ones are being smart for the wrong reasons. It's the total price DAMNIT!, not the month-to-month payment!

GT said...

"Buyers are certainly not canceling because they are changing their minds,"
"The sheeple don't believe the lies anymore."

the sheeple still believe it, they're just not being qualified

planobcl said...

@Stuck in so pa

"They are canceling because something has changed in their monthly payments."

We are volunteering to be the new serf class of the modern age. A life of servitude to the upper class, not by force but tragically by choice.

Anonymous said...

And that's the average for the valley region of Las Vegas. The "South Valley" region had a 77% cancellation rate!!! WOW!!

Anonymous said...

In Bakersfield these guys were building like there's no tomorrow,while the KB's and Pulte's were all pulling back. What were they thinking?
Lennar reports big loss
Home builder Lennar (LEN, news, msgs) had some more bad news today: It reported a fiscal third-quarter loss of $513.9 million, or $3.25 per share, down from a profit of $206.7 million, or $1.30 per share, in the same period a year ago. The loss included a charge of $3.33 related to valuation adjustments and land write-offs.

Revenue plummeted 44% to $2.34 billion. Deliveries for the quarter also dropped 41% to 7,636 homes.

"It is already well documented that the housing market has continued to deteriorate throughout our third quarter," CEO Stuart Miller acknowledged in a press release. "Heavy discounting by builders, and now the existing-home market as well, has continued to drive pricing downward. Consumer confidence in housing has remained low, while the mortgage market has continued to redefine itself, creating higher cancellation rates."

Shares of Lennar fell $1.18, or 4.9%, to $23.00 in morning trading.

The news comes before Wednesday's report on existing-home sales and Thursday's report on new-home sales; investors will look at the inventory rates, as well as the sales numbers themselves.

Lennar was expected to report a fiscal-third-quarter loss of 55 cents per share.

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas most overbuilt? I think Miami is worse!

Anonymous said...

The other 47% are totally clueless watching reality TV shows and CNN

Anonymous said...

Just wait till the bailout is in full gear. GSE limits up to $730K will make a lot of loans available again.

Anonymous said...

Collapse comments

Anonymous said...

53% cancels equals 53% of deals REALTORS thought they were going to get paid didn't get paid!

September 25, 2007 10:31 AM


Most new home purchases don't have a realtor.

Anonymous said...

Not surprised Las Vegas is #1. As a former LV resident, you have to understand the mentaility of those people. The city is a magnet for hucksters, grifters, etc. many of which abhor hard work and are attracted by the lure of "easy money".

This adverse selection problem leads to LV having a higher percentage of speculators and flippers than the average city. As such, there will be more inventory to work through and an even bigger crash than just about anywhwere else in the US.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

When people have to put down their own money, they all start getting smart ... Really Fast

Anonymous said...

hi morons.
so you think there won't be new household creations in the future? just because you geeks can't get a date, some people will get married, divorced, etc and need homes. how about the guys in Iraq that are waiting to come home to buy a home? A GI bill with new housing benefits would sure move a lot of homes fast and price you guys out forever, wouldn't it?

vegas crash watcher said...

Vegas won't crash until SoCal crashes, as most of the flippers came from there.
Then the meth-head zombies take over.

Anonymous said...

9/23 Las Vegas Sun: "the Sun analysis found that 38 percent of all single-family homes in Southern Nevada were still owned by investors." Thirty. Eight. Percent. Three. Eight.

Anonymous said...

I wish there was some way to short the entire city of Las Vegas.

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas August cancellation rate hits unbelievable 53% in August?Wow. I don't believe it. ;)
But I really do believe it.
I wonder how may of those would-be buyers cancelled on heir own, and how many had loan problems.