September 26, 2007

If your town's housing market had to "mark to market", how steep of a fall from the 2005 peak would it be looking at today?


"Mark to Market" - what is the true price that a seller would expect to realize on the open market to gain a sale TODAY?


Let's hear it. Enough of the BS we hear from the MSM, US government, NAR and homedebtors.

What's the reality on main street today?

Be real.

88 comments:

Monster Rules said...

LENNAR builds defective NEW homes
http://www.news8austin.com/content/your_news_/stories/?SecID=372&ArID=192534
Neighbors blame builder for defective homes
9/25/2007 3:33 PM
By: Chelsea Hover

Imagine purchasing a brand new home, and within months of moving in it starts to fall apart.


The Raymond's home at 225 Almquist
A viewer contacted News 8 and said that's exactly what's happening to dozens of homes in the Lennar Homes neighborhood of Huttoparke in Williamson County.

"They told me when I first moved in that it was just cosmetic," homeowner Amy Orbison said.

Neighbors complained about cracked foundations, doors that don't shut, popped nails and faulty sheetrock. Orbison said at first there was mold in the house. Lennar made repairs, but the problems didn't stop.

"I complained about nail pops in ceiling, where the nails are actually coming out, gaps, windows leaking," she said. "I think they're trying to save a dollar. I think they're going to do everything they can to cut corners, cheapest labor they can find, and sell it at the highest price they can sell it. And they don't care what happens to the homeowners once they're in there, it's your problem. They don't care."

It's a similar story down the street at Eddie Raymond's house. He and his family actually moved to a motel for a month so Lennar could redo the sheetrock. There were still more problems when they returned.



Builder blunder

Homeowners say Lennar sold them defective houses and they want their money back.





"We went into the attic and there was no insulation. He told me they must have forgot. I said, 'I don't know how you can forget to put insulation in the whole house,' " Raymond said.

Raymond joined the Orbisons, the Crump family and others to protest Lennar and seek legal advice. They created a website that details the problems in the neighborhood.

Homeowners also demonstrated against a new Lennar neighborhood being built across the street. Hutto Highlands advertises homes starting around $150,000. Neighbors say they will protest again every weekend until Lennar stops construction there.

In a written response to News 8, Lennar said they have addressed the drywall nailing pattern issue in 100 homes in Huttoparke and 40 homes in Legends of Hutto, and they're determined to fix the remaining homes as soon as possible.

Residents don't want to move out while the homes are being repaired. They want Lennar to buy back their homes. Homeowners face another hurdle if they try to sell.

"I can't even put the house up for sale. Nobody's going to buy it, because you have to disclose what's wrong with it," Raymond said.

Lennar is trying to make it right and honor their commitment to homeowners.

The homeowners say they don't just want the problems fixed; they want to make sure other first-time buyers don't make the same mistake.

Anonymous said...

Nice THs in nice suburban areas in NoVA that are in & around to the beltway during the feeding frenzy of the 05 peak went for over 500k (tickled 600k in some instances).

Fast forward 2 years and the same places while still listed for just under 500k just sit. A few pre-bubble owners leverage their equity and peg the price at ~450k but they still just sit. Agent said that I could offer 420k & request payment of closing costs and I'd be successful.

However even at those prices renting is less, even after taxes. The rent indicates that these THs should sell for the low to mid 300's range at the most!!! So I'll wait a few more years and either purchase new or pick up one from a bubble buyer FB in a short sale or from a pre-bubble buyer who really understands the phrase "leverage your equity"!!!

yoski said...

In Miami brand new homes sell at a substantial discount when compared to older homes. You can get a 2800 sqft home for around $375K, brand new from DR Horton. But who wants to live in a new home anyway? If you prefer older homes that need some TLC, the same home will run you about $500-600K. Sellers are still delusional. The worst are FSBOs, their asking prices are higher than the 2005 peak.

Monster Rules said...

Based on NYT
the bubble top reading was 171;
and June'07 reading was 160;

See chart below:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/09/23/weekinreview/20070923_BAJAJ_GRAPHIC.html

The current bubble is still 60% overvalue!

Monster Rules said...

Based on NYT
the bubble top reading was 171;
and June'07 reading was 160;

See chart below:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/09/23/weekinreview/20070923_BAJAJ_GRAPHIC.html

The current bubble is still 60% overvalue!

Anonymous said...

upstate ny, down about 15%, Keith keep up the good work.... BTW do you have a paypal "tip jar"?

Marcia said...

Townhouse sellers in Contra Costa county are still trying to get 2005 peak selling prices. They have not sold all summer. The sellers can't go any lower without borrowing more money because they already spent all their equity.

Edgar said...

Some places there will be no buyers at any price. They will bulldoze formerly $500k houses soon.

keith said...

Upstate NY: no tip jar just hit a goog ad if you want to contribute towards a pint here

Everyone - don't forget to list:


* Your city
* % off from peak TODAY in your view (mark to market)

Anonymous said...

in Dublin, Ireland.
the fall from peak to market would be 50%.

example:homes around my hood are currently "worth" 1.2m euro (since they don't sell, who knows what they are worth?).
the annual rent is a 2.5% return on the price.

prices would have to come down to 50% of their current value in order to equal the return offered by a secured deposit. - well, as "secure" as can be these days.

check out http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie for some good commentary on the housing situation here....he argues the housing boom has been the worst thing to hit Ireland.

who knows said...

looked at a house this weekend that is for sale or for rent. Asking 285,000. or will rent for 1225, do these numbers jive or what, i told the listing agent lots of luck.

Anonymous said...

The Orlando area. Meritage and Toll Brothers came in too late. They are huring with excess land and some reason it appears that Toll Bro neighborhoods have more of the "Foreclosure Brown".

Market to Market is hard to tell for subdivisions. Each one is different.

20% off 2005 prices is where I think it will stablize.

The defect lawsuits are going to put these builders out of business. If that doesn't do it the class action lawsuits from all the buyers (in foreclosure)who used the builders mortgage companies. Look at Beazer now.

Anonymous said...

Ocean/Monmouth County, NJ (beach towns) are selling for @$550 and up. $550, usually being a knock down. I would think the prices need to fall about 20% to make this a reasonable market, but houses are still selling here and I can't figure out why and who would buy in this market.

Anonymous said...

About to close on a house here in FL.. I know what you're all going to say about that, but the price has already dropped almost 100k from Feb 2006 prices!

Tampa,FL (just north, called "new tampa")
Feb 2006 - 260k
Mar 2007 - 170k
drop - 65% drop!

Stats -
~$100/sq ft with lot
Low $1400/mo rent x 120 = 168k

Based on the above I think the price is good for a home my wife and I plan to have for at least 10 years. And it is exactly what we were looking for. BTW, first home, 25 years old, 30 yr fixed.

Anonymous said...

Minneapolis-

I'm renting a $390K ('nominal value') townhome for only $1500 per month.

It's been on the market over a year. It's nicer than anything I could buy for $2000 per month.

Minneapolis / St. Paul probably has another 10-15% to decline before the bottom. Our local economy is unfortunately keeping prices a little too high.

I think that our crash is coming, but we are trailing the rest of the US at the moment.

PITI is getting close to rent payments, but not close enough for me to pop for a house yet.

B

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas--Easily 20% thus far. With 28K+ Homes for sale, and another 28K+ in some state of foreclosure, I predict we will see a solid 50% drop (peak to trough).

Anonymous said...

Monument Colorado probably 30-40%.

Colorado Springs SE down 40%.
Colorado Springs SW down 10-15%.
Colorado Springs the untouchable North end Tejon down 15-20.
North East 20-25%.

Hard to say if nothing is moving but seeing a lot of price improvement signs. Short sales are also showing up. Sales were down 21.1% yoy and approximately 40% vs 2005. Forclosures and inventory through the roof.

Anonymous said...

NEW YORK CITY is about flat from the peak. There's still a lot of arrogant money chasing deals.

New construction, however, combined with lay-offs by the investment banks, will change that soon. There are a TON of new buildings going up, nearly all "luxury." The days of a $850,000 studio (500 square feet, baby!) are coming to a screeching halt. The reason: there really is no one left to buy. Kids out of college know paying that much is moronic.

It's going to get quite interesting as developers scramble to sell their new inventory. It'll also be interesting to see whether Macklowe is able to roll his loans to keep his sham "real estate empire" afloat. Commercial real estate is Macklowe's gig, and commercial real estate is fixing to take a big DIVE.

P.S. I have a friend who bot a $1.3 million 1BR in one of Trump's new buildings on the far West Side. They commited about a year ago and still have not moved in, the building is still not finished. Well, get this: tons of the same 1BRs in their building are popping up for rent, and no one is biting. The best part: rent is being offered at $3,000 and still nobody cares!!! I feel bad for my friend, but I also feel good knowing I did the right thing to wait.

The bottom line: price is what you pay, value is what you get. Thank you Warren Buffett.

Anonymous said...

Eastern Loudoun county (huge bubble) down 30% (example, 25 year old trac houses sold for $700k in 2005, now sitting at $525, true sales with real offers around $475) Newer Million $ homes, going for around $700k. Of course I'm talking from the peak. Crazy thing is that those houses that are still going for $475, were only going for $350 in 2003, so the folks with equity are still making $125,000.

D. said...

I'm in Montreal, and prices have been accelerating in my burby area. Everybody here thinks the bubble is only in the US. What they don't realize is that in Canada you can get a fixed rate for 5 years or less (7 yrs is possbile but rarely used). If rates increase, many households will get hit. A lot of them think the BOC can't raise rates because it will cause a recession... as if that stopped it in the 70s and 80s!

In the last few years, the big demand has been for new McMansions. These have doubled in price, from 300K to 600K. Taxes have gone from 4K to 8-10K on these homes and household who bought these McMansions (avg housholed income of 120K) are finding it hard to pay for the upkeep. Signs in these areas are going up like mushrooms, meanwhile in older ares nothing is for sale. In my area, an older one, house prices have shot up drastically in the last year because those who bought these McMansions at 300K are locking in their profits and moving into our neighborhood (houses from 275K-400K). Our house is up 15% this year just because of this dislocation.

Anonymous said...

Steep fall? Not for awhile yet, here in Seattle. According to Seattle Bubble blog, it's looking like Seattle is ~17 months behind LA, SD & SF... but tracking very "nicely" along the same slide down.

2005 was not peak in Seattle, else the home we bought early that year wouldn't have been said to have appreciated about 35% since then. I'm thinking it was 2006 (or even early 2007 in some areas).

RandomName said...

In the Northern Virginia area, inside the beltway, I estimate we are down 25%.

There are very few homes listed that low. In fact there are more homes listed at 20% above their county assessment than 20-25% below.

My reason for saying down 25%, is the bids on a short sale in my area.
In 2005 the 'owners' paid 2% less than the current assessment. That year, others paid more for nearly identical tract homes. The Realtor initially listed at enough to pay off the mortgage, then and back off until he got bids. There were 3 offers. One at 34% less than assessed, the next at 30% less, and one at 27% less.

The lender rejected all offers and said they would foreclose if no one bid at least 80% of the assessed value. All 3 bidders refused.

Anonymous said...

Austin. Hmm, I'm thinking about -30%.

I just have to look at all the construction trucks on the road. Then think of the multiplier effect on the economy.

The funny thing today is developers are proposing to build even more condo towers downtown. Problem is its by the river in the flood zone. Well, thats why the land is more open there in the first place.

I think we are still in denial phase here locally. Its all about the Texas local selling out his ranch to developers -- not a sustainable way of life.

Mammoth said...

Keith, I am still fixing up my Lynnwood (in the ‘burbs north of Seattle) house in preparation for putting it on the market.

Last year, the house next door – a reasonable comp – sold for $310K. (That’s the ‘06 peak, not ’05, but the slump took a bit longer to hit up here. Seattle is "different," after all...).

Now, it looks that I will be asking $290K. That’s a 6.45% hit, or $20K drop.

Or, I could ‘drama’ – price it for $280K and likely sell it fast, for a ~10% hit. Nah, fvck option 2 – I will just rent the house out again if it doesn’t sell in 2 months.

Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Kieth:

I am not sure of you have visited the site, but Harriet's NOVA Fallout blog warrants a link from HP. Her site, which includes previously sold/current listing data shows that some homes in and around DC metro are down 40% from their previous sale. But hey, things will not be as bad here because we have all that Federal government spending.

http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Isn’t it once again time for Frank@never a cold call.com to once again (hee hee) provide his daily reminder of how he (hee hee) left the pretentious town of Scottsdale and moved to oh so down-to-earth southern California?

C'mon Frank, please don't disappoint us. We're all waiting for you!

HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!

Anonymous said...

15-25% in Boise

kilgore said...

I can only speak to the condo market in Houston, but from what I've seen the prices have flattened out but they haven't fallen like I would have expected. (Right now you can buy a $200K condo and rent it out for $2,000 a month, but don't forget the 3% property tax, which distorts things a bit.)

There's still an insane amount of building of condos going on in fairly shady areas of town (directly west of downtown, which is still 50% inhabited by crack dealers, the relentless building of $400K townhomes seems to be ACCELERATING). The only thing I can guess is that the price of oil is keeping condo prices from falling - that and the fact that Houston never really had the huge run up in prices.

Michael said...

Orange County, California

1968 4 bedroom house/ 1700 sq ft.

At peak, they were selling for $715k

Now listing at $615k... and not moving

Considering the jobs of those who live here, what they could actually afford, etc... It seem to me that a realistic price would be somewhere between $500-$525k

If $450k came our way, I would not be the least bit surprised.

I paid $380k in 2002

Anonymous said...

Phoenix,

Mean income is 43K a year.

30% outlay for housing = 1075.00 a month.

Mean affordable house for average Joe Phoenix is 158K.

Current Average Home price now in Phoenix is 263K

100-(158/263)=60 or a .40 drop.

That means Mark to Market in Phoenix is a 40% drop in prices before affordability is attained for the average home buyer.

Otherwise, the household is paying more than 30% of their income for housing. Anything over that takes away from food, insurance, utilities and vehicles.

So if you want to sell your house, think about lowering your price to affordability or you could just let it rot some more.

If you are in the market to buy, offer what you can afford instead of what they are asking. Then walk away until the pricing comes down to earth.

wildhalcyon said...

Baltimore-Washington Metro:

I'd say about 20~30% from today's asking prices to go back to anything of legitimate value. My wife and I were looking at townhomes in the area several months ago before we did the research. Townhomes that sold for $190K in 2000 go for over $300K in 2006/2007. Even adjusting for inflation and a modest growth, prices need to fall back $50K~60K before they're where they ought to be.

Anonymous said...

around 15-20%

Anonymous said...

Houston, Texas here! Sales prices for real estate are stable for the time being but sales have slowed significantly for lower priced homes.

We have oil and natural gas money down here, which gives us a somewhat different economic base from the rest of the country. Also, other than a few high-priced neighborhoods that definitely have some price "froth" we did not experience the extreme run-up in housing costs and insane condo construction that some other major US cities have experienced.

Houston’s current median price of $160,000 is 28.3 percent less than the national median price, which was $223,000 in May, according to NAR statistics.

We still hsve room to go down, though.

Anonymous said...

30 - 40 year 4 bedroom Houses in Northern NJ that were selling for about $650K-700K are going for about $550 - 625K now. Need another 15 % off these prices.

Arlene said...

Common example from my last "homeowning" hood: House for sale in 2005 for $150,000, sold the year before for $110,000, but the equivalent space has always rented for about $750.

So to me that means that $150K house is only "worth" $75,000, because I think of the rest as a speculation premium. This easy "add two zeroes to the rent" calculation has served me well in TWO bubbles and saved me tons of money.

The short answer is: Yup, going down about 50%.

Anonymous said...

San Jose, CA

If you use the traditional rent-price or income-price ratios (please don't laugh, those who did laugh last year are oddly quiet now) and compare to the median you're looking at a 50% reduction.

Renter said...

North of San Francisco in Sonoma County.

Lower end has already dropped 30% on average. Middle to high has dropped about 10%-15% (this is based on recent MLS searches I've done, there was a big drop off starting about 3 months ago)

With the recent credit crunch I think across the board the actual drop is %25-%40 depending on the area.

In my neighborhood a house has been sitting empty for a year with a price of around $800k - $6k equiv rental cost/month. A few doors away I'm paying $2k. That indicates that we need 77% drop (in this example) to get back to the long held historical norm. My rent is par (a little low actually) for local income, inflation and such.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

The market will decide the price - we'll just have to wait and see.

I have family memebers with quite a bit of property down in Southern Ca., who are now trying to sell some of it - there are no buyers, and only a handfull of lookers.

This is how it will be for most sellers across the country, since many would-be buyers expect the price to drop more considerably over the next months.

Anonymous said...

Based on recent sales in my area (mid-peninsula SF bay area), we are right around dead even with peak prices, give or take 2%. But, places sit on the market for weeks/months, and many simply get taken off, so even calling it a "market" is a stretch.

Imagine you owned a stock divided into a 100 different classes of shares, where small numbers of shares randomly chosen from the classes trade every few weeks. How can you even know what your shares are worth on a daily basis? The very definition of an illiquid market.

Anonymous said...

"Foreclosure Brown" sounds so depressing.

Perhaps instead we could refer to it as "REO Mocha", or "Countrywide Sepia". Or "Mozilo Tan".

B

bearmaster said...

2005 definitely seems to be the "line in the sand" in terms of prices in Redondo Beach. A very few properties from 2004 might have ended up as short sales this year - most sales last sold in 2004 still appear to be squeaking out ahead.

Here's an example of a property that was sold in July 2005 and is now distressed - the opening bid on the foreclosure sale was about 25% less than the July 2005 sale price.

bubble pusher ensnared by the slowdown

Given that there are other (mostly older) properties with comparable square footage currently on the market at even lower prices than that opening bid, I have to wonder if there was actually a fool out there that bid this thing up. I guess I'll find out sooner or later.

Anonymous said...

South Orange County, California

Paid $350,000 for our house in 2001 - 2,000 square feet, 4 bedrooms.

At the peak, it was worth $750,000. Asking price right now on the same floorplan in our neighborhood is $685,000. Seller wont get it. It will have to go for $625,000 for a quick sale.
I would not be surprised if my home drops to the $450,000 - $500,000 range which is a realistic price for this home, IMO.

Anonymous said...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/castlekay/976605842/

Anonymous said...

stocks up huge again today

some crash losers, keep looking out for that depression everyone, it's just around the corner

dolts

Anonymous said...

San Diego, CA:

Houses down 25-30%.


Condos down 30% & more each week.

A number of new Luxury Condo Buildings in downtown area(& other good areas) are in foreclosure or in auction.

Noticed thousands of late payment notices sent out.

Noticed older houses on market on sale for several months have become rentals. Greedy seniors and boomer offspring can't cash out(they rent to too several people which then brings extra cars, noice etc. to an area)

Anonymous said...

Brandon, FL (Suburb E-SE of Tampa): 35%, more in distant subdivisions requiring longer commute on inadequate roads (cough ... Fishhawk Ranch ... cough)

Dan said...

Bel Air, CA:

Prices are down about 10% from peak in early 2006.

When we bought in 2001, homes in our HOA ranged from 650K-1.8M.
At peak they went from 1.1M-3M. and now they are at 1M-2.7M

Anonymous said...

Anon 1:21 is pretty much right about Minneapolis.

We're down 10-15 percent from the peak (with a mark to move slightly higher) with another 15-20 percent to go.

I suspect we'll bottom out somewhere around 30 percent off peak in nominal terms.

Happy Homedebtor said...

wildhalcyon said...

Baltimore-Washington Metro:

I'd say about 20~30% from today's asking prices to go back to anything of legitimate value. My wife and I were looking at townhomes in the area several months ago before we did the research. Townhomes that sold for $190K in 2000 go for over $300K in 2006/2007. Even adjusting for inflation and a modest growth, prices need to fall back $50K~60K before they're where they ought to be.

September 26, 2007 4:34 PM
------------------------------
Lets see, $190K in '00 and 300K now? Ummm...you don't realize that's already drama-priced do you? Average appreciation here from '00-'05 was over 100% even in the ghettos of PG County. So about 60% appreciation already means a 20% drop (where the hell are you looking?)

The median income in my area is $350K, median household income is 82k. So 350K - (4 x 82) = 328K. So, $22K above affordability (not your excessively dreamy levels - you want a 2-2.5 ratio, live below your means) which is another 6%. With inflation/raises coming around 3% this year, that means even in 2 years at current prices.

THANK YOU, COME AGAIN!

Anonymous said...

overall Dallas region -10%

Southlake yuppie area -25%

Anonymous said...

In Bay Area, california
All of the houses are overpriced by at least $200,000. And when you see price reduction, it would say dramatic price reduction. But the reduction is only like $10,000. $10,000 reduction on a $700,000 to $800,000 home is nothing.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Anonymous said...
Phoenix,

Mean income is 43K a year.

30% outlay for housing = 1075.00 a month.

Mean affordable house for average Joe Phoenix is 158K.


But when Joe Average marries Jill Ordinary and they move in together their household income doubles and they can afford 316K. Almost all homeowners (oops, I mean moneyrenters) I know are dual income households. Two people will need a bigger house then one person but I don't think the numbers work out as neat and clean as you suggest. Still, I think Phoenix prices have a long way to fall.

Anonymous said...

There will be a 0-5% drop in the greater Chattanooga, TN area. There was never any unjustifiable appreciation (24-26% total gain in median home value since 2000, I think?). Houses here sell for between $50 and $100 per square foot, and the median home value is about $140,000. While there isn't an abundance of high-paying jobs here, the unemployment rate is extremely low. This isn't an area of conspicuous consumption, so I doubt there have been too many homedebtors who cashed out their home equity to finance things they couldn't really afford. Home values here are lower to begin with, and without any significant appreciation, it's not like people have a ton of equity to tap into to begin with.

Anonymous said...

Happy Homedebtor said...
wildhalcyon said...

Baltimore-Washington Metro:

I'd say about 20~30% from today's asking prices to go back to anything of legitimate value. My wife and I were looking at townhomes in the area several months ago before we did the research. Townhomes that sold for $190K in 2000 go for over $300K in 2006/2007. Even adjusting for inflation and a modest growth, prices need to fall back $50K~60K before they're where they ought to be.

September 26, 2007 4:34 PM
------------------------------
Lets see, $190K in '00 and 300K now? Ummm...you don't realize that's already drama-priced do you? Average appreciation here from '00-'05 was over 100% even in the ghettos of PG County. So about 60% appreciation already means a 20% drop (where the hell are you looking?)

The median income in my area is $350K, median household income is 82k. So 350K - (4 x 82) = 328K. So, $22K above affordability (not your excessively dreamy levels - you want a 2-2.5 ratio, live below your means) which is another 6%. With inflation/raises coming around 3% this year, that means even in 2 years at current prices.

THANK YOU, COME AGAIN!

September 26, 2007 6:25 PM
--------
I think wildhalcyon is just off on his or her #s.

190k THs in NOVA in 2000 are now 1/2 a mil. One's that went for 100-150k in 2000 now go for b/t 350-400k (older, tired, no garage, not updated inside etc.)

Anonymous said...

Here in the American Riviera (Santa Barbara) median income is about 65K, median home price at peak around $1.2m, I'm guessing probably about a 50% writedown would get us back to historic norms of affordability. This will probably happen too since even 1BR sh!tbox condo conversions still require a jumbo loan.

It's fun to watch the local media have to face the fact that all of the RE cheerleading they were doing has now changed to "OMG housing prices are dropping" in a place where it's different™ and housing always goes up.

geeski said...

* phoenix
* 10% down from peak

* another 25% to go to reach historic norm

stuckinthecity said...

Chicago: 20% to nice, 50% required to get med price to line up with med income.....

Anonymous said...

Santa Fe New Mexico

The market is dead here. I just found out our local Sotheby's real estate office in Eldorado (a bedroom community for Santa Fe) is closing their doors because business is bad. This office has been at this location since the shopping center opened in 1995.

A 3/2/1 house down the street (again, in Eldorado) just lowered their price from $345,000 to $299,000 (a 13% reduction), but still no takers. It might sell at $250,000.

Still lots of denial among sellers, but I'd say the market is at least off 10% at this point.

P.S. If Dolts is so confident about the market, I'd advise him to buy up some homebuilder stocks! They are a screaming bargain right now!!!

Jymkata

Rordogma said...

Austin, TX
I'm guessing homes will drop 30% within a year.

The condo craze here is absolutely insane...atleast on the development side. there are 10+ MAJOR projects going on right now in Austin proper. Who the hell is going to buy these things for 300k+? Me? Hell no!

There was a local news report on last night interviewing realators who admitted that activity has become completely stagnant...NO ONE IS MAKING A MOVE.

There will continue to be a premium on property close to downtown to promote urban density, but the idea of buying a TEARDOWN home for 300k+ just doesn't make sense anymore.

Sales/prices have flattened, and will begin to plummit very soon...sticking with the theory that Austin is always 6-9 months behind the curve. We're in for a wild ride!!!

Oh yea, we have the worst traffic in the entire country(for mid-sized city under 1,000,000 population).

Bob Reno said...

Lansing, Michigan
Down about 20%

We didn't see a great appreciation in the past few years, so this is as much due to our sh*tty economy and loss of jobs as the market itself. Even here though, there are still new homes being built and condos coming on the market that no one wants. A lot of homes that were for sale this summer have been pulled from the market now that school has started.

ken said...

Anaheim Hills, CA

"This city needs an enema!" (Joker from Batman movie). I believe a 50% mark to market reduction is necessary. Neighbor across the street has been trying to sell for 6 months with Help-U-Sell. Finally moved out and got a realtor. House has been reduced to $745k, and Zillow puts it at $604k!! They are truly dreaming, small 4/2 house, single story, built in 1974.

Monster Rules said...

"Tampa,FL (just north, called "new tampa")
Feb 2006 - 260k
Mar 2007 - 170k
drop - 65% drop "

90k/260k ~= "only" 35% drop; not 65% yet.

Anonymous said...

1 Bed, 1 Bath, 1 car detached Garage apartment -> Condo conversion in Grand Blanc, MI. (middle floor of 3 floor building). 889 Sq foot.

Paid $87,000 in Jan 2006 (closing costs rolled into mortgage)

Breakdown:
Unit: 76,900
Garage: 6,900
Closing cost: 4200 -1000 sell consession.

(If I had it to do over I would have just got the 76,900 unit without the detached garage) :(


The unit above mine is for sale, It is superior because it has a fireplace and cathedral ceilings. Buyer added wood floors and slate floor in bathrooms as upgrade. Everything else is identical with the exception I have a garage and they only have a carport.

Guy above me reduced his price from 89,000 to 85,000 and now to 79,900.

So basically I have 87,000 invested and I could probably only get around 79,900 current market rate. Maybe even less considering unit above mine is slightly less.


I am down atleast 7000 if I were to sell right now or a net loss of 8 or 9%.



I don't feel bad though because my PITI+association is $612 a month (Thats a car note to some people on here).

And the apartments in my complex that are not converted start at $699 (without garage).

So even though I made a bad choice. I atleast feel good knowing that I am paying less than comparable rent in the area.

Anonymous said...

Cash is king in a deflationary depression-and that is where the world economy is headed. Read Ludwig Von Mises's books, he clearly explains the workings of a fiat currency.


I am expecting a 80-90% drop in housing, autos, and luxury items.


This will be rough ride. Before you discount my prediction as crazy , think backas to what happen in 2000-2001 with the Nasdaq.

Anonymous said...

bogus income numbers... thought the average househokd income was 44,000 yet required two working adukts to get it???? see the household income numbers from the fed.???

Anonymous said...

pardon the misspells as
i was lying in the dark in bed....

Stuck in So Pa said...

Southern York Co is right on the money, actually somewhat on the minus side. Paid $60,000 in 1988(at the bottom of the last housing cycle, I didn't even know it at the time, thank you HP) assessed for $90000. Assessed Nov 2006 for $131,000 (100%,) and that's after two additions. Come to think of it, the new additions were assessed for $28,000, so that means an actual increases of $13,000 (or 14.4%) in value over 19 years. I MIGHT be able to get $150,000 today, but only from a Balt/D.C. sucker. It’s a pretty dead area, nothing to do, nowhere to go. New homes are outrageous, but they are sitting and not selling. Our one development looks like a ghost town. Too bad, they are really nice houses from small respected local builders, huge places for around here, but still averaging $100/ft. It’s always, location, location, and location! Where there has been no bubble, there is usually no drop. Although our local assessor told me recently to expect a drop in my assessment. He informs me that the "credit bubble" has definitely hit the area, and foreclosures are up, as are the number of abandoned and blighted properties!
Now, all this means nothing because the "tax and spenders" have doubled my mileage rate every year for the last 3. This may be a dead area, but don't ever expect the parasites (your elected servants) to take a cut, anytime, anywhere. More than one financial expert has touched on this in the news lately. The decrease in property tax revenues are going to take a real bite out of the ass of their "taxing majesties," who have gotten used to the revenue flow that they "deserve."

Anonymous said...

what gives you the idea that its your right to recapture inflation when the lender to your mortgage as in bank depositor took years of interest payments a lot less than inflation, yet alone "true inflation" and why will he refinance your adjustable again? if then it took a return of at least 20 percent long term return on his loan just to break even or more considering your house prices not counted in the inflation numbers

Anonymous said...

and why not 1947 prices or 1962 prices the lows and the highs not includong 1935 qnd 1936 depression bottoms.

Anonymous said...

Die dollar, just die:
http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/EUR/graph120.html

Anonymous said...

baltimore washington medium income of 180,000 either govt crooks or unemployed, both not worth a tenth the price, just like housing....

Anonymous said...

6:58 speaks revolution............

Anonymous said...

pardon that was 6"25 speaks revolution

Anonymous said...

SW Washington state, Clark county is down about 3 percent so far this year. With prices having gone up by 60 percent or so in the last 4 years, I imagine we have a long way to go down. The only thing keeping us from crashing faster is Portland right across the river and all of the California Equity locusts buying "cheap" houses.

Anonymous said...

Leesburg, VA - down 30% in the last 18 mos. easy, especially new construction. Pulte is practically Shanghaing people to buy 500k townhouses during construction. Funny though - rents continue to be gouge-level for anything with over 1.5 bath - there ain't enough illegal aliens around here anymore to cough that kind of money up.

Anonymous said...

Los Angeles CA

I saw a home in Paciifc Palisades (wealthy suburb of LA) that was reduced a WHOPPING $500,000

On Help U Sell, a friend of mine said there was a great showcase home in Northridge, CA (San Fernando Valley area) that had been reduced from 740 K to 675K
and it had been fully remodeled and landscaped.
I could not find the home on the web site because there were pages and page and pages of homes
in this range, many were overinflated.

Los Angelinos are in deep denial and most won't budge on the asking price, which means a GLUT
of homes particularly in less desirable areas.

My coastal friends who live near the beach keep saying SOFT LANDING. When did you hear that term last? From David L.??

Mid Hudson Valley NY said...

Mid Hudson Valley NY

Hasnt really droped much here yet.

'mark to market' would require a 50% drop or more.

Anonymous said...

San Diego is dead, not much moving at all. Home have been up for many many months and the only thing that changes is the listing agent and the price. San Diego is dropping fast and it is going to drop from top to bottom about 35-40%. IMO
In San Diego, denial is rampant. Next month will be very interesting. Look out below!!!!

Anonymous said...

Nationwide average: 50%. West Coast and other bubble markets: 60%-70%.

Anonymous said...

Our hosehold income combined is 224K in Phoenix.

Although we paid off our Mortgage, if I were buying another residence, like the one I have, I would be paying out over 6K a month in PITI.

That is insane.

I just want to live debt free, so I won't be moving soon.

When prices drop about 40%, I will be more likely to go at it again.

Until then, I am comfortable.

Anonymous said...

Builders in Philly suburbs have pulled back new construction prices 15% add incentives and call it 20%. The builders are forced to mark to market because they have to sell units. If you want to sell a resale you must reduce your price to compete. I do notice they are selling units at the reduced prices. Right now 15% to 20% is our mark to market. If the builders cut further then resale will be forced to follow. They drove the market up and will drive the market down.
Bottom Feeder in Philly

Anonymous said...

If my town had to mark to market it would take another 15 to 20% tumble after already going down 10% from the peak ,so that equals 30 %. That is not to say that one could get a better deal on a builder close out or a foreclosure of concessions and incentives that might add another 10% to the discount from peak .

Desertpablo said...

I live in La Quinta. It's adjacent to Palm Desert and Indian Wells. Homes like mine went for near 560K for about 5 minutes. In late 05 other tried the same with no luck. Last month my exact copy went on a short sale for 360k. I'm starting to see rental signs as some sellers give up and try to rent.

Anonymous said...

Martinsville, VA

In the "old money" neighborhoods prices have dropped from $400K to $299K and falling while they sit unsold.

Agents scramble and fight like a pack of rats over any potential sales crumbs.

Until they get realistic about prices and lower their comissions, someone needs to call for pest control.

Anonymous said...

Monster Rules Said:

"They told me when I first moved in that it was just cosmetic," homeowner Amy Orbison said.

Neighbors complained about cracked foundations, doors that don't shut, popped nails and faulty sheetrock. Orbison said at first there was mold in the house. Lennar made repairs, but the problems didn't stop.

-----------------------------------

The other side of the housing bust that people have not started talking about as much as the financial. The fact that builders existing profit margins were not enough, they had to hire cheap mexican labor to build the homes so their spread was even more. Have any of you seen the type of shotty construction done on houses in Rocky Point. Well those same people crossed the border, and came to work for homebuilders here....

It's no wonder that these houses are falling apart.

Anonymous said...

indian wells at 50,000 is to much

wildhalcyon said...

Anonymous said...

Happy Homedebtor said...
wildhalcyon said...

Baltimore-Washington Metro:

I'd say about 20~30% from today's asking prices to go back to anything of legitimate value. My wife and I were looking at townhomes in the area several months ago before we did the research. Townhomes that sold for $190K in 2000 go for over $300K in 2006/2007. Even adjusting for inflation and a modest growth, prices need to fall back $50K~60K before they're where they ought to be.

September 26, 2007 4:34 PM
------------------------------
Lets see, $190K in '00 and 300K now? Ummm...you don't realize that's already drama-priced do you? Average appreciation here from '00-'05 was over 100% even in the ghettos of PG County. So about 60% appreciation already means a 20% drop (where the hell are you looking?)

The median income in my area is $350K, median household income is 82k. So 350K - (4 x 82) = 328K. So, $22K above affordability (not your excessively dreamy levels - you want a 2-2.5 ratio, live below your means) which is another 6%. With inflation/raises coming around 3% this year, that means even in 2 years at current prices.

THANK YOU, COME AGAIN!

September 26, 2007 6:25 PM
--------
I think wildhalcyon is just off on his or her #s.

190k THs in NOVA in 2000 are now 1/2 a mil. One's that went for 100-150k in 2000 now go for b/t 350-400k (older, tired, no garage, not updated inside etc.)

------------------------------

Actually, no, I wasn't off on my numbers, but I may not have accurately represented the whole DC/Baltimore metro area...

I was looking at a specific community. In Anne Arundel County. Updated, 3 br/2.5 ba, no garage. Between 1999 and 2001 they sold for around $200K. At the peak they were selling for $325K, and right now they're back down to $300K.

Sorry for any confusion.

DaveO said...

"I saw a home in Paciifc Palisades (wealthy suburb of LA) that was reduced a WHOPPING $500,000"

AFAIK, interestingly, Steve Guttenberg lives there (at 1401 Calle Del Jonella).