A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
First rule about HP is...
It's like Fight Club. If people found out the truth from you, they become scared because you're not one of the sheeple.
Its difficult to get people to listen when they are so emotionaly invested in the market. I find it interesting, while they use their house as an investment tool or cash cow, they cant seperate from the attacment that comes with "owning" a home.
We'll HP is kinda like a religion, you only let those who deserve the knowledge get it. It's a club for those of us who foretold this massacre. By the way where is CRAZY RICHARD these days?
Great movie, lots of people have never seen it or seen it over and over. The best part was the homework " pick a fight with someone and lose " no one could get any sissy guys to fight back. Yes, you know quickly in a conversation if the person knows the true housing problems.
Most people sleepwalk through life. Why bother waking them up? Seriously. Try to point out objective reality to one of the zombies. It's like dropping a BOMB on their happy dreamworld. They ARE NOT appreciative. It's not worth the trouble.I'd rather just sell them the useless, escapist crap they crave...
I freely pass on what I learn but normaly do not in a conversation "cite" the source. Occasionally someone will ask how I know what I know and I say I gleaned it from the internet to include blogs. If the conversation develops to the point they want to know the sites specifically I pass it on.
Fight ClubWe don't want stupid people to find out
"Never EVER talk about Fight Club!"At least until buildings start to collapse like so many dominoes. Then uh... the "secret" is kind of out now isn't it?"I'm going through a really weird phase in my life right now".DinOR
Devestment...Dealer in useless escapist crap since 1974
I tried but to tell a chosen few...but the sad part is the chosen few ended up just like the rest....DENIAL! of the facts.
I told everyone I knew and they though I was crazy. Now they all act like they knew the market was going to melt down all along.
I tell people about HP. I think we should, that it's really important to get the message out. But I think it's important how you tell them.HP pulls no punches and it so conflicts with many people's existing mindset that they dismiss HP outright as a bunch of crazies - they'll think I'm crazy too. So I ease them into it. If someone asks me to send them some links then I always include HP but I do so among patrickKililea and bostonbubble. I'll send them papermoney too since it's all videos and that's a more beginner-friendly format.It's kinda like when someone first goes skiing. You need to take a beginner to the blues and greens first. HP is more like a double-black diamond or the terrain park.
Anonymous hat gesagt... Most people sleepwalk through life:The ONLY people who were not sleepwalking are my friends here in Zurich who all RENT!. . .the Swiss are too smart to buy (except a few who's family has owned since 1700). . .my apartment here in Zurich cost less than it did a year ago, because the Kanton of Zurich owns it, and the rent depends on interest rates, not inflation (go figure, but we had a rent reduction last year). . .in any event there is no social status to owning. . .unlike San Diego where everyone just HAS to own. . .I told a few people there not to buy, but they didn't pay attention, and now they are crying. . .my Swiss friends are off on vacation with money in the bank.
I dunno 'bout fights clubbs butz of thes im sure: doppes is gettin' fangered todays!
Anonymous hat gesagt... Most people sleepwalk through life. . .I agree with that statement (strange, I am on a .ch (Swiss Link) and HP comes up in Deutch . . .hmmm . . .anyway - I told a few people, they didn't pay attention, and now they are crying. . .what can I say. . .all my Swiss friends rent, and put their money in the bank - they have real money in a real currency. . .they are on holiday in exotic ports, while I am apartment sitting for a month. . .San Diego people just HAD to buy. . .sad.
Probably my favorite movie! Must have watched the movie at least 100 times! It's all about hitting bottom. I miss Marla! She was spectatular in bed! She knew how to hit bottom. Some of the people I try to tell need to be shot like Robert Paulson or beat up like the blonde dude! I want to through myself down a flight of stairs now! Can we blow up the credit agencies and start over?
It's tough for me. I am a home owner who NEVER use my home as a cash cow ATM even though it tripled in value. I try to preach my findings here on HP to close friends and family, only to be received with taunts of 'chicken little' and 'the negative asshole'. I think now they are finally coming around and some have asked , how did you know? I said I owed it to all those blogs 'that had their own agenda'.
It's very difficult to get past the idea that the 'value' of their home may go down.Even if they concede that home prices in the area have declined, they are 'smart' and bought a special home with special features like the super-kitchen or the spa tub that means their home is magically protected from price decline.People either already get it or they won't.
If you tell someone that they are underwater on their 4000 sq foot mcmansion they will become Jack's raging bile duct.Great movie.
The two people I told over a year ago did not listen and they both are hurting now big time. I guess people only hear what they want to hear and need to learn things the hard way.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street plunged while bonds surged higher Friday after the government reported payrolls in August fell for the first time in four years rather than rising as had been expected. The Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 250 points.
Some people are beyond our help. I give up, but I'm sitting in the life raft thanks to HP
I tried to tell them but they wouldn't listen
I don't tell people about HP because you have too many socialist wackjobs here. I don't want people to think I'm a kook
I did my best to warn a few friends starting in 2005 that housing was headed for a big correction at some point in the near term. I also told them that housing led recessions were usually deep and painful given the emotional investment that many have in their homes - nevermind just the money part. It is as if they see themselves in the houses that they live within. To me, that is the really "weirdo crap" - not all the tin foil hat wearers that come to HP (yours truly included). Anyway, most people did not want to hear anything more from me so I just shut up and watched. Read the story of Cassandra if you want some history behind "killing the messenger".Smug Bastard
Beazer Homes USA Inc. Friday said it has received purported default notices from U.S. Bank National Association, the trustee under the indentures governing several outstanding senior note issues.Beazer, an Atlanta home builder, said Friday that the notices allege the company is in default because it hasn't yet filed its 10-Q report with regulators for its fiscal third quarter ended June 30.pwnd
Remember the troll the other day blabbing about how Harley Davidson was doing fine?A Downshift for Harley-DavidsonThe motorcycle maker cuts estimates for sales and earnings, citing "difficult" times for consumers http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2007/pi2007097_253268.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_investing
HP has almost become a 'secret society' of sorts;it's becoming more and more dangerous to reveal the horrible truth about housing in particular and 'realeconomik' in general to 'outsiders'.Remember, 49% of the voting public in 2000 chose to trash a budget surplus, a strong dollar, and a coherent/stable foreign policy by voting for the most ghastly incompetent presidential administration in history! I have actually spoken to people who blatantly confessed that they chose Bush over Gore because (are you ready for this) they did'nt like Gore because they thought "he was too smart."Why a cloud of severe mental retardation swept over America in the fall of 2000, I have no idea,but common sense dictates that if a huge proportion of the electorate CHOOSES STUPIDITY, then the smart thing to do is to GET RICH off of their stupidity!:1.Dont go into debt2.Rent3.Buy gold4.Purchase T-bill or T-bill money market funds.5.Invest in Swiss,Norwegian,Eurozone,and Singapore bonds.
"Do you tell people about HP and what you know, or is this kinda like Fight Club?"No, but I smile at them with my mouth/teeth full of blood.
Funny you mentioned that because I've been short HOG, since it was a favorite toy for home gamblers and FBs alike.Remember the troll the other day blabbing about how Harley Davidson was doing fine?
There are just so many Bullish, BlueSky, Unrealistic attitutes that came with this bubble, its a tough pill for sheeple to swallow. I only offer short, warrented knowlege and advice, if THEY ask for it. That way I feel I've made an effort at least.
"They thought he was too smart"That's great, but I can beat it."I voted for the cute one."
yea, what ever happened to Richard? did his mom take away his computer?
I am in the business and told friends and investors to watch their steps a year and a half ago. They accused me of being too negative. Some I have not seen in a while. They couldn't handle the truth. Now they are upside down on multiple mortgages with no way out. Sometimes its best just to keep your mouth shut.
Ahhhh, at last, we may have our "greatest generation" moment coming up, pulling out of a nasty depression with basically no industrial capabilities left. (try telling that anywhere but here)
I talk about it. The people who listen benefit from it, and those who don't go on their way with their heads in the sand.
Today's society is all about immediate gratification, taking the easy road and above all else, buying crap whether needed or not. We are not a nation of truth seekers and to reveal the truth HP professes makes people think you are negitive, crazy, or just a kook. So I allow people to see what they want to see. If they want to know the truth, I try to enlighten them. And if they don't, well education IS expensive. In life lessons are repeated until learned. Didn't learn from the .com bubble, didn't learn from the housing bubble, well maybe next time you will pay attention. If not lesson will be repeated until learned...-SRI
homedebtors just glaze over and don't get it. real home owners don't care, may actually get them a tax break.methinks there is a lot of quiet desperation going on out there in homedebtor land.pretty much only talk about HP with renters and family.
I told everyone I knew and they though I was crazy. Now they all act like they knew the market was going to melt down all along.THAT'S why we call them sheeple!
Anonymous said... NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street plunged while bonds surged higher Friday after the government reported payrolls in August fell for the first time in four years rather than rising as had been expected. The Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 250 points. September 07, 2007 9:25 PM -----------------------Good day for gold today. $700+$800+ is very likely within the next few months.
at least the housing market is trying to hit bottom.
I've given up on my friends. They know, but no longer want to hear. They don't seem to get it that just because I was crowing about this in 2003, and the bubble peaked in 2005, that it doesn't mean I was wrong. Only with put options does "early" make you "wrong" (lesson duly learned). I don't care any more about convincing them of the bubble now. When the SHTF though, they will all come out of the woodwork asking, "OMG, how did you know?" like I was John the Baptist in the wilderness.I'm too busy these days minding my puts to bother convincing anyone of the bubble. I just want to maximize my personal profits in the carnage to come. The funny thing, too, so many Seattleites I know are liberals, I'm a Goldwater Republican, and I'm a hundred times more negative on the economy than they are. And I don't post here under any handle, I'm just who I am.
I don't say anything bad, unless it looks like the other person knows what's going on.If someone says they are looking to buy, I ask how they decided it's a good time to buy. I suggest it could be a better time to buy in the future.If someone says they have just biught a house, I say "Ohm good!" and I'm (sort of) happy for them.I think people either have some idea that things are in the process of changing, or they're clueless.
Fight Club, i'm proud but viciously protective... to my own detriment.
Game's over kidshttp://tinyurl.com/2cqoc6Unemployment held at 4.6%.Needless to say, the futures tanked.Lest you think Bernanke has a "green light" to cut rates with wild abandon without consequence to the dollar, you'd be wrong. "European Central Bank policy makers signaled the bank is ready to raise interest rates further to curb inflation once financial-market turbulence has abated. The ECB has a 'determination to act in the future whenever it is necessary,' ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a conference in Frankfurt today. He called monetary policy 'still on the accommodative side.'"I see.... About that "rate cut"....... well, with the economy going in the shitter, yeah, we might get rate cuts. Will it matter? Oh fuck no.Guys, that jobs print is a recessionary number. Game's over kids.Yes, my "rate cut" odds just changed big. 80/20 in favor of one initially, but here's the ugly part - into a recession it doesn't matter a bit, equities still go down the toilet, and so does the economy.Oh, and the Dollar goes down the toilet too unless the other Central Banks follow suit. It dipped under the magic 80 number this morning and worse, closed there.As soon as the dollar tanked, my rate cut odds went hard the other way - now I'm 75/25 AGAINST.Bernanke has no room here to maneuver - all his available choices are bad.
Keith,It's like passing out calenders on death row. You can tell how bad it is because instead of blabbing some nonsense now people just get quiet and thoughtful when real estate is brought up.
Time for project mayhem!
Remember, 49% of the voting public in 2000 chose to trash a budget surplus.Yeah, Al Gore would have magically kept the Nasdaq from deflating. Brilliant.
there are some places where declining house values would bring joy to me as an owner, just not the one I live in today
I told very few. Most people I told looked at me like I was telling them I saw Bigfoot in my back yard last week. Everyone I tried to help did what they were going to do anyway. The only one who seemed to get it was a guy who I told to sell his SD condo in 2005 and rent. He said he mentioned it to his wife and she thought he was crazy.His $565,000 condo is now on market for $400,000 due to forced relocation.You can't help sheeple-that's why they're sheeple.
Anon said:"Ahhhh, at last, we may have our "greatest generation" moment coming up, pulling out of a nasty depression with basically no industrial capabilities left. (try telling that anywhere but here)"Agree, it is going to be a rough one, especially for those with debt.At least, back in the 1970's, the computer age was gearing up....what do we have now to replace that industry of production?This is almost like sitting in a roller coaster at the top of the run and looking straight down...Except this time, we are not having fun.
Anon said:"I told very few. Most people I told looked at me like I was telling them I saw Bigfoot in my back yard last week". I know what you mean....happened with my friends too - if I were to say I saw a UFO, they would believe that before realizing this historic housing bubble.
The only one who did belive me WAS bigfoot.But he just got off a flying saucer and was a little lost.I think he was just trying to be nice cause he needed accurate directions to Phoenix.Say's he and his buddies were going to hang out in all them empty houses.He said they were a little low on fuel and Phoenix was a little nicer than the moon, and at least they have a roof over their heads1
All of the people I know who have not bought homes because they won't take an ARM and won't pay $3000.00 a mo for a house love to hear about it. The friends who bught in the last 3 years look at me like I am satan when I talk about housing values.
"HP is more like a double-black diamond or the terrain park."In that case, Nouriel's blog is like Para Skiing.HP is great fun and all, but NR really dishes up some serious sh*t. Don't look down.
yea, what ever happened to Richard? did his mom take away his computer?What most people here don't realize is that Richard talked about how EVERYTHING was going to blow up in a few years just like the housing market is blowing up now.He's right of course. Within 10 years, most people won't even be able to feed themselves.But what I found sad/hilarious was how quite a few HPers attacked the trolls for being bullish on housing, and then IMMEDIATELY turned around and started spitting on Richard for trying to warn of an even bigger impending disaster.Talk about living in LA-LA land.A few years from now, most people will WISH that their only problem is to be jobless, broke and having an $800K HELOC.If you want to see some real fight clubs - start looking at peak oil.OOPS... I'm wondering how ticked people are now going to be that I woke them from their dream world?This housing/economic collapse is just to soften us up. We're about to get the real beating very soon.
Richard is a kook and so are you. Maybe you are both the same person along with the other kook bitter renter and the kook who said we should give Marxism/Communism a chance since it hasn't been tried yet.
Remember, 49% of the voting public in 2000 chose to trash a budget surplus.Yeah, Al Gore would have magically kept the Nasdaq from deflating. Brilliant. It's funny how these left wing idiots still claim that the dotcom ponzi scheme was a good thing while the housing ponzi scheme was a bad thing. Talk about brainwashed sheep.
Richard is a kook and so are you. Maybe you are both the same person along with the other kook bitter renter and the kook who said we should give Marxism/Communism a chance since it hasn't been tried yet.Richard isn't the anonymous coward that you and I are. Even if someone is wrong I respect their oppinions enough to research it myslef. Especially since it's a warning - not a conversion of my political or religious beliefs.Many on HP were just trying to warn people of the bubble - to not over extend themselves. Instead, what they got was an earful of tripe from greedy, scum sucking, anti-intellectuals like yourself who feed off the misery of others.HP tried to help people - save them from a lifetime of debt and servitude. What did you do?Unfortunately, morons such as yourself still don't get it. It's because people didn't listen that it's most likely for Marxism/Communism to get a chance.What do you think the coming government bailout is all about? Doesn't that smack of Communism? Where a central government is going to dictate to the rest of the population how they will live, where they will live, how much they owe, etc.Take a good look buddy - you're the kook and you sold your freedom for a fistful of dollars.IB
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