A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
enjoy shopping this labor day at wal-mart for chinese crap,
how 'bout those home prices now,
I think the Chinese still make things,
what do we do when we no longer make things
I'm wondering if this is the Shiller paper the article mentions.http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/ab/a16/a1610.htmGotta love Shiller. Genius, not a bought and paid for mouthpiece.
It's not considered polite to talk about real estate anymore. Right up there on the list with colostomy bags, brain cancer and the lastest Herpes outbreak.
None of the Above.I am working today, to make a little OT while it is there for the taking...
I swear if anyone today talks about real estate I will take my BBQ fork and put it right threw their heart! As they lay dieing on my patio I will take the sausage I'm cooking and stuff it in their dirty mouth!
...but more importantly: where is honica jewinsky? HP without honica is like the A Team without Mr. T.
Only in regard to how its now going down and among pre-bubble owners and/or renters (I fall into both catagories). A year ago a friend of mine in Metro DC said to look for all these THs & condos to go down 100k. I said no way, just 10% (30-50k). But some of the places I'd like to buy are down 70k and still no bites!! So I am going to just move and rent a bigger place and sit this out for another year. Floplords are very entertaining listing rent & then wanting me to pay their condo and/or HOA fee. I just say thats a contract b/t you and the association I don't think you want a renter being responsible to you as it does not discharge the floplords responsibility to the association. I then just walk away and go to the pre-bubble unit next door that lists the same rent w/ the fees inclusive and does not break them out as something I must pay in addition to the rent.
We're having friends over. My wife swears that she will have me face down on the grill if I even open my mouth. Not a bubble area, so I've become "boring."
I work with two other guys who are still are in the "real estate can never go down" mentality.When I said to them the party is over (about real estate) it was like I was talking about religion or something. Dead quite.The taboo dies hard. Reality will teach them the hard way.
I mentioned to our neighbors last night (at a cheap pizza dinner) that we looked at a foreclosed unit here in the building where I rent and they own. . .the foreclosed place a 2/2 is listed only slightly above what they paid (and still owe) for their small ONE bedroom place two years ago. . .wife says without thinking. . ."gee, that is a good price - not much higher than we paid for our place.". . .then the husband and wife looked at each other, and there was dead silence. . .I said - "gee I'm getting hungry, let's go get a pizza". . .the worst. . .they want to sell in the next year and take a job out of California. . .nice people - just bought at the wrong time because "they just had to buy before prices went up more."
In our family get togethers its O.K to talk about RE because we're all safe. Both parents paid off houses long ago, and never re-fi'ed. My sister & brother in law are now renters after selling their home too. We just talk about all the open houses we vist for fun...
Real estate conversation banned.Memory of my bubble prediction banned.Discussion shifts to "will you buy my unwanted chattel"???I suddenly realize I can afford all their chattel, a place at the beach, and a country house.My teeth sink into the flesh from their grill as I pretend to be civilized...
I notice the Shiller paper uses the key words "Regime change". I remember in the Calif. bust of 91, we hit a real bottom about a year after the "Regime change". Then we had several years of recession.
"I told you we couldn't afford this damn home""What do you mean you told me? I told you you stupid _____"!"I hate you!""I never should have married you"!"Suzanne!!!!"
Hey! Maybe if we don't talk about it, it will go away!
California is finished.And Arnold was doing so well in his progress toward President.Oh well, he's finished too.
Clownifornia had better hope for an influx of rich Asians. Florida had better hope for an influx of rich South Americans and Euros. That is the only thing that can save this country from a long painful enema of a recession.
I guess we must have better friends.None of them ever said anything about getting rich off real estate. At most it was something like, "I'm glad I bought N years ago and not now", for those (like me) who owned back at normal prices.PS: HP without honica is like the KKK without Young Republicans.
Just wait until the revenue intake in CA drops off a cliff. Ahnold will have a serious problem paying off all of those bonds he floated...
this place I live in that more than tripled in "value" over the last few years in the property tax, tax scheme is at a price that is unafordable to me at 70 percent down
And Arnold was doing so well in his progress toward President.Dammit. I was SO looking forward to living in a futuristic science fiction dystopia, too. He does have the first signature on my Computer Engineering degree, so at least I get a little bit of surreal.Back on topic:Talked to a friend about local prices.Him: Prices won't go down here...it's a nice place.Me: Any nicer than it was 5 years ago before this began? And prices are already down.Him: Yes, but only 8%.Me: 8% of $650k is somewhere around 50k. Him: You're a socialist.Me: Yes, and at night I shed my human skin and breathe dryer lint.I shouldn't hang out with stupid people, but they make me feel so damn smart.
I can honestly say the conversations about RE have not changed much with my wife's family (or where we live, Newport Beach). Her sister and husband bought a way overpriced 50 year old home last fall up in the Bay Area for just under $1 million -- interest only!! And now her sister in L.A. is about to buy a $600k condo with her boyfriend. We overheard her Mom tell the L.A. sister "I put 80% of my income toward our house...and look how great it paid off for me." Granted, her home has gone from $450k to $1.6 million, but the bad habits (gambling with real estate) are being passed down to the next generation. They have absolutely no fear of it tanking. "You have to get in now"..."or you'll miss getting in entirely." Our Thanksgiving weekend up there will be three fulls days of that! And I'm not sensing any fear here in Newport Beach, either. It is business as usual, it seems, for most.
"...but more importantly: where is honica jewinsky? HP without honica is like the A Team without Mr. T."Or Adolph without Eva.
Picture looks like a typical Thanksgiving day meal with all the (dysfunctional) relatives when I was a kid.Have avoided large gathers with relatives/extended-family ever since.
You can always allude to the Nasdaq, before you go into the topic of real estate prices always bouncing back.
Ahnold will have a serious problem paying off all of those bonds he floated...Ahnold: Sorry Kallleefornya, I won't be back. We're moving to a low tax place. Hasta la vista, baybee!
I have a coworker who bought last year with a 20% down fixed rate 30 yr loan. Now, his house is DOWN 24%, and poof went his down payment, and so called "equity".He doesnt talk about his house anymore... I wonder why? Whoever bought within that last 2 years with 30 year fixed loans, and 20% are the BIGGER DOPES!! SUCKERS!!!!! Damn straight Im laughing at ya!!!!
"What do we do when we no longer make things"?Answer:We slide into a 3rd-world economy, dependent on the rest of the worldto sustain our economic growth.
Anyone noticed that A&E ran an entire marathon of "Flip This House" this past weekend? Were they trying to be ironic? Was that just a bad joke? Or is A&E that clueless? Seems like sort of bad taste to run that show ad nauseum these days.
The only actor, who I want to be President these days is Harrison Ford.All the rest can't play the role, they only look like fools i.e. Bill Pullman or Jerry Springer in their respective B-films. Remember, a Prez is a sock puppet for those around him.
Ahnold will have a serious problem paying off all of those bonds he floated...Ahnold was against most of those bonds. It was the good people of Kaleeforniya who voted for those bonds. Most other states are able to budget within their means while Kaleeforniyans think they are entitled to live like royalty. They hire illegal immigrants to mow their lawns and take care of their children then turn around and complain about the social costs of having so many illegals around. What a bunch of morons.
I was going to have a BBQ for all the unemployed realty clerks here in Californication but I then realized Ramon doesn't do well on the BBQ. So I cancelled and left some potted meat out on the door step with some bread. I hope they liked it.
Actually while drinking margarita's, boating and wave running on the Cheasapeake Bay inlet, the talk was very much Real Estate related. We Fantasized of the possibility of someone excepting a 250k offer on a 500k waterfront home with a boat slip. We can afford to burn an extra 20k a year of debt, and drop down a nice chunk of change upfront, to have a place to hide and play. At todays ridiculous prices there isn't anything nice for 1650 per month. Hopefully we may find something affordable in a few years if prices truly do pullback 20 to 25% or more. I could get used to the lifestyle of having a piece of paradise 90 minutes from home. Long term waterfront property does well, because they can't make anymore of it. This could be a great time to buy during the crash. Nice to know there is about to be a big clearance sale going on soon.If I buy right, I can enjoy the property for 20 years, and make a killing when I cash out at the top of the next silly RE cycle. If you travel in a Savvy crowd, Real Estate should be the major topic of discussion. There will be a great wealth building opportunity in a few years, and a chance to buy that little piece of paradise on sale.Bottom Feeder in Philly
its not the end of the world as we know it. California is not gonna close. There is opportunity everywhere, even in flipping houses. Can you say "foreclosure"?
I would take P Diddy for Prez
FYI: I believe Shiller is referencing his "History of Home Values" when he speaks of a 50% price drop. We're at 200 now, 50% takes us back to 100, or slightly below the long term trend in appreciation.Google up Shiller and a History of Home Values and you should see the graph.
My neighbor paid $110,000 for his house last spring. Now a newer house down the street sold for $80,000. No wonder he was in such a cranky mood yesterday. My house is paid off. I don't even want to think about the paper loss I may have taken---we all need some place to live.
The one thing I noticed is that most of my friends have LIVES! Real Estate is just not a topic of conversation, and was not before. Believe it or not, some people actually like their homes and schools, and just go about their lives. They don't worry about all of this nonsense. They watch the news, then turn it off an go on with life. This will correct, be bad for some, good for others, and most of us will just go about our business. The tech bubble was mostly a non event for everyone that was not employed by Enron, or any other of those crooks. We have issues in this country, and have had them for many years, they correct, life goes on....Too much time and effort being spent on this....80% of the population just does not give a rip. Got it....
Been watching this unfold for a few years now.Thanks to HP and others. I was able to convince a few relatives not to purchase a house last year. Other relatives thought I was a tin foil hat type.At the BBQ this weekend, everyone wanted to wear my tin foil hat.Thanks HP.
Cheasapeake Bay inlet area of Virginia beach and Norfolk area is just booming. I've been here a couple of years and it is amazing. Lots of money in these two towns and people are moving here for the lower prices and cost of living and milder weather in both seasons. I too was out in the bay fishing yesterday it was very nice, and the talkon the boat was we are making too much money (over 160k, way over ) and looking for some writeoffs and a beach house would help.
PS: HP without honica is like the KKK without Young Republicans. September 03, 2007 5:38 PM ==========You mean like Senator Byrd (D-WV),former grand wizard of the KKK? Oops wrong party, never mind.Moron.
"..where is honica jewinsky?"-------------Didn't he post a while back, that he sold his house and was becoming frustrated waiting for prices to drop so that he could buy for 'pennies on the dollar?'Ha ha - taking actions which can seriously affect your happiness, based upon WHAT YOU READ ON THE INTERNET!His wife probably knifed him in his sleep.
I was scorned and looked down upon as well as questioned incessantly as to why I would rent at this stage of my life. The horror.
For heavens sake, will all the Yankees please stay North? I am so sick an tired of the carpetbaggers coming down from New York to buy in the Chesapeake Bay area. Then they want to implement the left wing stupidity that made their home such a n overpriced dump! Stay in New York/New Jersey - it's really wonderful there.
I thought Honica was a she, not a he.
Man, I've been living in a resort area for a decade and I haven't seen the beach so empty in a labor day. It was dead!
For heavens sake, will all the Yankees please stay North? I am so sick an tired of the carpetbaggers coming down from New York to buy in the Chesapeake Bay area. Then they want to implement the left wing stupidity that made their home such a n overpriced dump! Stay in New York/New Jersey - it's really wonderful there. Read the post. I am from Philly you Jerk off. If your so sick and tired, why don't you sell me your house at a nice discount and move somewhere else. It's because of the big city money that things are so overpriced. You should be thankful that the demand has increased your property value. Please tell me which inlet you live on so I don't buy a house next to such a rude neighbor.Bottom Feeder In Philly
Here's the difference: Byrd was a kid who went to a KKK meeting when it was culturally acceptable to do so.Young republicans join the KKK in modern day America because they still believe in the organization.You republicans are evil.
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