September 30, 2007

Housing Crash Poster Child Phoenix Arizona to post nearly 50% drop in home sales for September, and 18 month supply of unwanted homes


Housing Doom posts the shocking numbers for September (which really aren't so shocking, and they're gonna get worse). A 18 month (at least) supply of homes on the market, and a 46% drop in year over year sales for September.

* But what about all those people moving to Phoenix?

* But what about all those idiot Phoenix realtor bloggers who said there was no housing bubble, and people who thought there was were brown shirts and chicken littles?

* But what about the great and balanced Phoenix economy?

Folks, the housing crash underway in Phoenix and cities around the country (and world) will be the most important financial event of your lifetimes. Cities like Phoenix based their fake economies and budgets on homebuilding, home selling, home furnishing, illegal immigrant labor, property taxes, home improvement and always-increasing home prices.

And then the whole Ponzi Scheme caved in.

Phoenix may one day rise from the housing crash ashes, and rise up as a better place, but watch and bewilder as the greatest housing crash in US history unfolds in Housing-Ponzi-Scheme-Central Phoenix Arizona.

84 comments:

Anonymous said...

Alot of focus is on phoenix on this and other blogs. I have been to phoenix and I thought the town was boring. Way to hot! The grand canyon was something to see! Anyways the news update for west palm beach is there is a 39 month supply of unwanted homes on the market. That's over double the phoenix market. A report about south florida says 22% of the people working are connected to real estate. Sounds similar to phoenix economy

Anonymous said...

But Greg Swanndive said Phoenix real estate was a sure bet!


http://tinyurl.com/2vk4w5

21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market . . .
By Greg Swann

HousingPanic, a particularly vitriolic BubbleBlog — which is saying something — asks:

Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?

Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings.

Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.

In any case, here do I compile my list of 21 really good reasons to bank on the future of the Phoenix area real estate market:

Anonymous said...

More stupidity from Swanndive:

That’s all one. I don’t care. The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them.

The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish.

You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along. But as long as you don’t hold your breath waiting for that contrite admission of error, you should be fine.

Here’s where I do start to care. Whenever the subject of Phoenix comes up in a BubbleBlog, the assembled Brown Shirts pile on, for whatever reason. This is their perfect right — even though I think they’re wrong.

In any case, here do I compile my list of 21 really good reasons to bank on the future of the Phoenix area real estate market:

1. The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.
2. A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.
3. The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.
4. Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.
5. Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.
6. Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.
7. Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.
8. Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.
9. There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.
10. Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.
11. While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.
12. The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.
13. People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.
14. Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.
15. We build thousands more new homes every year.
16. The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.
17. Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.
18. Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.
19. People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.
20. A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…
21. Year-around golf.

diemos said...

Keith, you haven't updated us for a while on your favorite Phoenix luxury condo project. You know, the one under the airport approach?

Anonymous said...

ONE MORE TIME:

In case, somebody missed it or can't get it through their heads, here it is again:

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its
own level. Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly
educated bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy money.This souless mix of carpet-bagging transients, budget seniors,tatooed
misfits, real estate grifters, toothless white trash
tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population
center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic
congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses
and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate
food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry,
Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator
of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living
in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the
intelligence charts. The only reason to be here
(temporarily), is if you're making a decent income
(absolute min. 250k per yr). Anything less is not
worth it, as your health, mental well being and
personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this
genetic cesspool of half-breeds.
As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, THERE".

trailer park refugee said...

20. A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here

Yea, I am going to make my financial decision based on what an athlete decides to do, yep, sure, thanks for getting that to me, Greg Swan.

Anonymous said...

How does Swann have any clients? What a dick

Anonymous said...

50% drop in sales equals a lot of hungry realtorwhores

Anonymous said...

21. Year-around golf.


I'm sure there's droves of people on the golf courses when it's 115 degrees in the summer

lowballer said...

There are some great buys in phoenix right now.Get out of your mom's basement and buy a house and get a life you dopes.You buy when everyone else is in panic mode.Actually there are some areas in phoenix that are still way overpriced.If you do your homework you can find good buys.

bickerer said...

Wasn't it last september that kendra said bubbles are for bathtubs?

keith said...

DON'T GO TO SWANNS BLOG

That's what he wants, he baits bubble blogs to drive traffic and make himself a realtor martyr

Just ignore him. He'll be looking for new work soon anyway

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

lol @ keith. Bubble blog victim swan, boo effing hoo.
You are right Keith.
Additionally there is a victim at bloodhound and it is the Swan client readers, if he has any.

Anonymous said...

dude come on, you make it sound like Phoenix was a 1 street light town in 2001 and then real estate came to town.

The city was growing like crazy for decades and the fake economy was real or fake or whatever it is pre-bubble as well.

Obviously housing prices are and will fall some more. But the city isn't about to turn into a ghost town. As long as it is 75 in January in Phoenix and 10 below in Chicago, Phoenix will continue to grow.

As for this whole battle of the blogs between you and Sawnn, jeezuz I see more maturity in my 7 year old than you two.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

21. Year-around golf.


I'm sure there's droves of people on the golf courses when it's 115 degrees in the summer

September 30, 2007 3:49 PM

===============

I wouldn't say droves but courses are a lot busier than you think in the summer. Playing in 115 Phoenix weather is quite doable. You have a card with a roof so you are not in the sun all that much. Playing in 95 degree and humid NE or midwest is not, at least not for me. Sure it's a cliche, but dry desert heat is not that bad once you get used to it. And besides it gets to 115 maybe 10 days a year. In order to never see snow, I'll gladly put up with it.

Point is you CAN play golf year round if you want. For a lot of people that is important. I moved to the SW and while it wasn't #1 on my list of things, it was definitely check in the plus column.

keith said...

Prior to 2001 the Phoenix economy was built on service jobs and call centers

After 2001 it was the REIC that drove the bus

Now, 2008 and beyond, it'll probably be credit counseling agencies, bankruptcy laywers and foreclosure specialists who drive Phoenix jobs

But hundreds of thousands of jobs in Phoenix just went poof - mostly REIC commission jobs like mortgage broker and realtor, but also all the housing support jobs like architects and home retail, all the illegals that no longer can work and no longer have jobs to go to anyway

Phoenix is a company town (the REIC) and the company just went bust

keith said...

I actually liked to play golf in Phoenix in the summer - play great courses for 20% of the cost in the winter, plus no traffic on the course

But that wouldn't make me pay $500,000 for an apartment (worth $100,000)

Anonymous said...

1 ounce of gold will buy three houses in Phoenix!!!!!!

Jason said...

I'm working on my 15th year in Phoenix. We trade 3-4 months of hellish heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year. It's September 30th, and my windows are open and the birds are singing. I grill nearly every day of the year. I never have to worry about snow tires, and my cars don't rust.

Don't get me wrong, things are going to get very bad here. Lots of people bought here for the wrong reasons, and they're going to be very disappointed.

But if you bow to the sun rather than an H2 and 6,000 square feet under a tile roof, this town will only get better when they leave.

Anonymous said...

Keith so you are saying that all the economic activity pre-2001 went away? Come on man you are making no sense.

Call centers and tourism didn't go away. The retirees are still there. The military is still there. ASU didn't walk away in the middle of the night. Honeywell is still there. Unless I missed it, Intel is still around.

And 50% of sales means 50% of REIC activity is still taking place.

It's comments like yours why bloggers are marginalized. Nobody in their right mind would say real estate isn't tanking. But you take it to such absurd levels that it just eats your credibility.

You are Greg Swann evil twin.

Shakster said...

GREG WHO?!!

Anonymous said...

Call centers didn't go away?

Ever hear of a country called India?

DOPES said...

18 months supply in PHONY-IX.
Michigan State Government has told 25000 workers not to show up.
CountryWide is being infused with serious chunks of cash to stay afloat.
All that means is that it's a great time to buy,Michigan workers are on Vacation,and Countrywide has friends with deep pockets,and plenty of cash.SOME Crash! BiGGAWWKK!!Cocka-Doodle DOOOOOOO!!!
DOPES!

Anonymous said...

You morons can only see TODAY, not 5 years from now. Media hyped the boom, now media hypes the bubble. If you have the patience to wait out the insanity and the panic-selling (trust me, there's A LOT of this), you'll make out just fine. Not promoting BUYING, I'm promoting WAITING. This "bubble" is nationwide and not limited to Phoenix. Why do you think huge REIT's and Wall Street brokerages are snatching up land/property all around Phoenix? They have the vision to see past TODAY or see past 2008. In 5 years they're going to look like geniuses, just like those who bought up property in the early 90's around Phoenix and HELD ON to them. The 100% financing crowd is taking the brunt of this storm, and those sorry folks are a dime a dozen in every state in the US. As far as Phoenix compared to other cities- I'll take Phoenix ANY DAY over your humid east coast sorry-weather, cramped cities.

Greg Shitbird said...

Arizona Sucks pretty much.Yep

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Call centers didn't go away?

Ever hear of a country called India?

September 30, 2007 5:38 PM

=========

You are a moron and the typical moron who thinks we should close the borders and stop all trade. Please go and die.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

As for this whole battle of the blogs between you and Sawnn, jeezuz I see more maturity in my 7 year old than you two.

and

You are Greg Swann evil twin.

************************

Hi Mom.

D. said...

7. Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.

Colorado river volumes are down 50% in 8 years. Arizona will only wake up the day it has no more water.

But who cares, America will just go to war against Canada for its water. That's what it does best, bully the ROW until one day the whole world's environment will have been ransacked and there will be nothing left... just like the Easter Island story.

Anonymous said...

matbe they return to the citrus, cattle, copper. economy of yesteryear

Anonymous said...

try the cooling bills lately
??????

smitty said...

"But Greg Swanndive said Phoenix real estate was a sure bet!"

I'm surprised that he didn't mention that global warming will flood the coast and drive everyone to "ocean front property" in Arizona.

Anonymous said...

im not paying 400,000 for a 3bd, 3bth 2 car garage with pool and 12 citrus trees that was 84,000 in 2001, in this "non" inflationary world of horsesheet even if the winter is warm and paradisical... but with low tax and low antes....

Anonymous said...

cheap, well working solar power makes us rich....and driving those sh^tty electric cars..and tractors and bull dozers....

Anonymous said...

extreme heat and high electric prices make us poor...

Anonymous said...

molecular conversion electric????

Anonymous said...

A 50% paycut would be a bummer. I guess they can get part-tie jobs at The Gap or Starbucks

Anonymous said...

guy down the street from me in phx bulldozed a fine brick house and left a horse barn that was being used as a chicken coop,... i wondered if it had something to do with the downtown agracultural permits on the long held lands value....

Anonymous said...

or just a hard nosed non ass kisser..refusing to beg for new permits and political correctness from peasants with all the power,...ala theives...

zoiks said...

"Call centers and tourism..."

Wow. Call centers and tourism. Now that's what I call an advanced ecconomy! Definitely enough to justify wildly inflated housing prices surrounded by enough developable land to drown in. And air you could eat with a fork. All you'd need to add then is "would you like to Biggie-size that order?".

India, Malaysia, Philippines: you are on notice!

Anonymous said...

We trade 3-4 months of hellish heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year.

I live in San Diego. We trade 3-4 days of moderately uncomfortable heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year.

And we have some substantial real technology businesses here too.

And San Diego overpriced RE is going down down down.

But never down to Phoenix.

zoiks said...

Phoenix is California's Inland Empire without the ocean breezes.

Edgar said...

DON'T GO TO SWANNS BLOG

Hey, I go to the dump to drop off my trash and watch the bears too. Does that mean I'm feeding the bears? LMAO!

Paul E. Math said...

I wonder if Swanny will ever admit that he has been very publicly very foolish.

You have to wonder what kind of person would select such a pompous ass as his/her Realtor. Then again, why would anyone use a Realtor at all if they weren't somewhat mentally or physically compromised?

hotchkiss1@cox.net said...

Anonymous,

Can we assume you are one of the following as well, since you live in the valley?

" mediocre poorly educated bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy money, souless mix of carpet-bagging transients, budget seniors,tatooed misfits, real estate grifters,toothless white trash tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo Scottsdale millionaires..."

Or are you in a member of the "genetic cesspool of half breeds, registering at the bottom of the intelligence charts"?

Of course not, you must surely be the exception...

I'm in the odd position of defending Phoenix not from the excess's of it's "sprawl for all" mentality, but from the equally absurd rantings of individuals such as anonymous. I am a critic of many of these same issues, but the absolutism and righteousness of anonymous's rant is about as absurd as the Phoenix cheerleading that he protests.

The last story that I read on foreclosure rates (within the past two weeks) listed California and Nevada #1 and #2, followed by Arizona. That's not a defense of the housing insanity in Phoenix, but it's clearly not the front runner. It may be in due time, but save your angst 'til then. In the mean time both California and (particularly) Nevada seem like more appropriate targets for your angst.

Bad traffic? Compared to how it used to be- certainly. It has become much worse than even five years ago. I pity the folks (for numerous reasons) who live on the sprawl fringe, who commute down town.

Compared to the Bay area, LA, Orange County, Seattle, north San Diego county, Dallas, Chicago- it's a walk in the park. And no, the traffic congestion in those locales should not be something to shoot for.

Hot? Yes, and it's gotten hotter in the past 100 years. Night time temps have risen 10-15 degrees due to the eradication of farm land and it's replacement with the new cash crop- stucco.

It's insanely hot in the summer, just like Minnesota is insanely cold in the wnter. The nice thing about Phoenix is that you can drive two hours north and be in the high country. It's extreme weather just like many regions of the country have. Why single it out ? Pick your poison.

"A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather"... As mentioned it gets damn hot four and a half months, the rest of the year has pretty nice weather by most standards. Too bad you don't like the desert eco-system and landscape. For some, it's too far outside of their comfort zone to appreciate. For some, it's vast ness is intimidating and causes anxiety. . It is a sublime landscape that has tremendous beauty. Unfortunatley much more of the landscape has been covered with faux Tuscanny boxes in the past five years.

" bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses
and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate
food..."

Are you describing just Phoenix? You could be describing many regions of the southwest here, and save for the "stucco boxes" architecture, much of the country's suburbs. LA, Orange County, Riverside county, Dallas, Houston, a good part of the south and many newer regions of the north and north east. Which is it? Indeed you are describing a national phenomenon that has impacted Phoenix disproportionately due to the timing of it's growth. However, these dynamics are not unique to the valley by any stretch. heck, go to suburban Chicago for starters... not a defense of Phoenix, just some much needed context.

What was not mentioned is that Phoenix has one of the largest if not the largest urban parks systems in the world. Tremendous mountain biking and hiking is ten minutes or so from nearly all parts of Phoenix proper. For the suburbs, it's slightly further in most cases. I've not been to any other American city that has a resource even close to this, considering the size of Phoenix, it's quite impressive.

Again, I'm a harsh critic of the path that the Phoenix metropolitan area has chosen for it's economic growth. This includes all of the ancillary issues connected to it's pursuit of sprawl. I hope that this bubble serves as a wake-up call to the powers that be to finally heed the wisdom that has been spoken for some 15 years now, and diversify the economy away from sprawl.

For anonymous: get out more, expose your self to other cities, the experience would provide some much needed context for your rants. Another suggestion, move out of the suburbs down to a central city neighborhood. We live in a historic disrict, our home has appreciated %250-%300 over the past 15 years- that's appreciation that will not evaporate with the current housing bubble insanity.

Do you live in one of the stucco subdivisions per chance- just a little bitter maybe? Or are you irrationally fixated on Phoenix for some reason.

Err, maybe I've got it all wrong and I'm just one of those stoopid Phoenicians who is too dumb to know any better... good thing there's folks like you to edukate us more better.

Anonymous said...

1. The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.
2. A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.
3. The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.

Yes, yes, people have always moved here, that's not the point. 1,2,and 3 are all lumped in that veryone sooner or later considers moving to a warm place. The fact is that we do not "do" anything here. We build houses. We sell houses. We build commercial centers on every mile intersection. Now the "company" that runs this town is in big trouble. Deveplopers are the "company". No houses, no commercial. By the way, for every three people that move here, two leave. Not a picture of stability.

4. Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.

Yes, so they move here, and drove up the prices of homes to unheard of insane levels.

5. Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.

See your population solves all lunacy points 1,2,and 3.

6. Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.

Baby boomers don't die? Not in Phoenix in your scenario. What happens to all THOSE houses?

7. Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.

True. One of the most benign areas of the planet. Immune from almost all manner of catastrophe, except incredible flooding at certain times.

8. Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.

"Huunnny, lets move to Phoenix, so I can get a job that pays a fraction of my salary now, and the eductaion level is one notch below moron, the air is toxic in the winter, we will have to choose between watering the lawn and drinking reclaimed effluent, no culture, no vision, developers run amock, because I am TERRIFIED by natural disaters."

Clue...we are making one right here in the Valley, just don't rush us.

9. There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.

Again with the people and the moving and the....

10. Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.

Have you been to Phoenix's "Little Orange County?" It's FABULOUS!

11. While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.

Paradox alert...
WE USE GAS LIKE IT'S GOING OUT OF STYLE IN PHOENIX.

12. The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.

Of what? Gave you even looked at the largest employers of the state? Can you say "WAl MART?"


13. People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.

Yes, the desert air makes a rock have a baby.

14. Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.

Yes, if you do not work at WAL MART.

15. We build thousands more new homes every year.

Not this year, or next, or the year after that....it's not Dorritos.

16. The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.

Yes, our fantastically managed Phoenix is a model for mass transportation, as ADOT lays more and more freeways to connect the land tha developers want connected. Also our visionary leaders that are the remoras of the developers can't seem to grasp the concept of building a freeway then not adding a land a year, so it's always under construction. Or maybe, just maybe put rail lines in the medians instead of HOV joke lanes.

17. Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.

No as many as there used to be. Also they do tend to die, and VIOLA! A house.

18. Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.

Again with the people move...people DO move. We are a nomadic bunch.

19. People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.

Yes, so we can wait on them, and they go bak to the places where they actually make and do things other than build homes.

20. A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…
21. Year-around golf.

We also have year round astronomical crime, the wonderfull air pollution in the winter, and soon to be horror show, a water crisis that will make people's heads spin.

This from a preson who moved here in 1977. It was nice here. Now it's Riverside without the culture.

Anonymous said...

someone said something about it being too hot in phoenix...

hey buddy, its a dry heat....:)

Budvar said...

"1 ounce of gold will buy three houses in Phoenix!!!!!!"


If a Berlin city block cost 14oz of gold in Weimar Germany, what price again for a wetback built stucco shitbox in Phoenix??

Anonymous said...

Is there any water in Arizona? Is there going to be any left in Arizona in 50 years?

Anonymous said...

You could say the same about most of Kal-ee-for-nee-a. High tech is busted (outside of google), the Film insudtry is dying and very few people can afford to live there with a decent quality of life.

Tyrone said...

I added Greg to the Housing Bubble Hall of Shame®.

http://realestaterecord.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Phoenix will suffer a double whammy when the natural gas supply peaks in North America sometime in the next 8 years or so. The cost of air conditioning those McMansions (for the 4 illegal immigrant familes or meth lab workers) will be astronomical.

That is not a town in which you can just open the windows and doors to get by in the summer when money is tight.

Anonymous said...

"As long as it is 75 in January in Phoenix and 10 below in Chicago, Phoenix will continue to grow."

Okay, Let me tell you the difference between bad weather in Chicago and bad weather in Phoenix I lived in Chicago during the winter and I could get around the city without ever having to set foot outside. There are underground and above ground walkways which you can use to get to the el train, supermarket, mall, movie theater, whatever.

I lived in Phoenix one summer, and forget about going outside after 8 am. You have to drive to get anywhere and even going between buildings and your car is a miserable proposition. Forget about carrying groceries or going on a walk anywhere.

Chicago was designed to accommodate citizens in cold weather. Phoenix was just slapped together so cars could get around. No thought to the comfort of the people driving those cars.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure there's droves of people on the golf courses when it's 115 degrees in the summer

_______

I've lived here since 1990.

You know what, there are PLENTY of people on the golf courses in 115-degree heat.

Amazing, I know, but I've seen it with my own eyes.

I have never joined them on the links that time of year, though. Not for me.

Anonymous said...

I'm working on my 15th year in Phoenix. We trade 3-4 months of hellish heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year. It's September 30th, and my windows are open and the birds are singing. I grill nearly every day of the year. I never have to worry about snow tires, and my cars don't rust.

Don't get me wrong, things are going to get very bad here. Lots of people bought here for the wrong reasons, and they're going to be very disappointed.

But if you bow to the sun rather than an H2 and 6,000 square feet under a tile roof, this town will only get better when they leave.


________

I see it the same way, Jason.

I have lived and prospered here for 17 years. I would do it all over again in a heartbeat.

Those with very delicate constitutions like Keef can't take it, but for the rugged among us, it's dandy.

Arizona is the most majestic state in the contiguous 48. The immigrants, legal and illegal, don't bother me and I don't bother them.

Is the housing market crashing here? Of course it is. So what?

Get over it, get a life. Phoenix will be here, going strong, long after we're all dead.

Anonymous said...

Jason said:
I'm working on my 15th year in Phoenix. We trade 3-4 months of hellish heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year. It's September 30th, and my windows are open...

Huh...what Phoenix do you live in? Not Phoenix, AZ. Near perfect weather 8-9 months of the year? Um, no. It's still pretty hot out now...my AC is still kicking in...certainly not cool enough to have windows open during the day...unless you like to sweat.

I would reverse what you said. We have 3-4 perfect months, but the rest are hellish hot...at least during the day.

Dave in Snottsdale said...

"Lowballer" do you like to catch falling knives on the weekends? The median homeprice is down 80k from Aug 05 and shows no signs of slowing down. Have a look:

http://tinyurl.com/yvpjlx

The middle represents the median .... scroll down to aug 05.

I remember when studio condos without a bedroom, in DC Ranch (Snottsdale), sold for 310k. I recently saw a two bedroom condo (a bank short sale:) that sat on the market for 4-5 months at 260k with no takers. Its off the market now and I haven't seen it show up as sold. There is also a 2 bedroom condo at 279k that has been on the market for awhile with no takers. Everyone else trying to sell has their prices in the mid to high three hundreds. Ha! Good luck suckers! The new homes being built off of 94th st have been dropping like a rock lately. Homes that were selling for 1m+ are now in the 800k range... it seems the builders their are getting really desperate as of late.

corvinus said...

I have been to phoenix and I thought the town was boring. Way to hot! The grand canyon was something to see!

Las Vegas is much closer to the Grand Canyon than Phoenix. (Not that LV's market is any better...)

Anonymous said...

DON'T GO TO SWANNS BLOG

yeah Keith, but it has been fun knocking him off that pedestal he set himself up on last year.

I've been having a ball!

Anonymous said...

The 4 months of hell are over for now in Phoenix. We had 33 days of 110 + degree heat out of the last 85.


While you are freezing this winter, we will be wearing shorts and playing outside in the sun.

Now that homes will become affordable again, the new influx of people who want to be here will start all over again.

Growth here is amazing to watch. One day you live on the edge of town, within a few years, you are in the middle of everything.

Universities are overflowing with students. There is more retail shopping in the valley than imaginable. Major league sports mecca including Spring Training, Pro basketball, baseball, hockey and football.


Pussies like you would never make it here. Im glad you do not live here, because you would bring down the standard.

Anonymous said...

It's fun to watch denial in action. Swann's emotions are getting in the way logic.

Swann might be the perfect barometer for the real estate cycle.

Maybe his attack on this blog is symptom of denial moving to fear.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Call centers and tourism didn't go away."


....... TOURISM??? Is tourism really that big in Phoenix? I can't think of any reason to visit Phoenix on a holiday.

Anonymous said...

....... TOURISM??? Is tourism really that big in Phoenix? I can't think of any reason to visit Phoenix on a holiday.

October 01, 2007 9:57 AM


================

Great. Please encourage all your fellow wingnuts to stay away as well.

Anonymous said...

BTW in 2006 AZ had 29.1 million visitors. As a point of comparison, Florida has 75 million.

AZ'spopulation is about 1/3 of FL's, so proportionally speaking toursim is as big as it is for FL.

If any of you clowns would leave your mom's basement and travel more than 2 miles to your Wendy's job you would know why people come to AZ.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

I'm working on my 15th year in Phoenix. We trade 3-4 months of hellish heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year. It's September 30th, and my windows are open and the birds are singing. I grill nearly every day of the year. I never have to worry about snow tires, and my cars don't rust.

In my 7 years of living in Phoenix, only 2 or 3 winters lived up to the hype and myth. The rest of them were either rainy, cold and blustery, overcast, windy, or a combination of all of the above.

My girlfriend who is from NY and I both agree that in cold climates, you put on a coat and it ain't so bad. But in Phoenix, for some reason, when it's cold it's COLD.

Sorry but Phoenix winters don't live up to the hype.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Honeywell is still there. Unless I missed it, Intel is still around.

Minimum wage factory jobs. Have you even seen the neighborhood around the Intel plant? It's one of those places you just don't go at night.

Compared to the Bay area, LA, Orange County, Seattle, north San Diego county, Dallas, Chicago- it's a walk in the park.

Sorry but now you're spewing lies. I lived in Phoenix/Scottsdale for 7 years before moving to Orange County this year. The traffic here ain't half as bad as Phoenix now is. Locals here who have to go to Phoenix for business come back appalled at the traffic. I was up in the Bay Area a few weeks ago and that traffic isn't as bad either. LA, yes, but not the rest of the state. Sorry.

I live in San Diego. We trade 3-4 days of moderately uncomfortable heat for nearly perfect weather the rest of the year.

And we have some substantial real technology businesses here too.

And San Diego overpriced RE is going down down down.

But never down to Phoenix.


+1. I escaped the ignorant REIC-infested Phoenix area this year myself to move to So Cal and couldn't be happier.

I was actually apprehensive about moving because the Phoenix cheerleading machine really gets you to believe that you live in a great place, but now that I live here and had to go back to Phoenix for a meeting last month, I never realized just how bad and miserable it is. After 7 months of living here, my impression of going back to Phoenix:

- The people were horribly rude and unfriendly
- The people are slow and lazy and you can't get decent service anywhere
- The drivers are the worst on the planet, bar none.
- It's UGLY. Even areas I used to like (Paradise Valley, Gainey Ranch) were U-G-L-Y after living here.

And on and on ... the comment about "cheap banal living" is spot on because that's the only reason to live in Phx.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

....... TOURISM??? Is tourism really that big in Phoenix? I can't think of any reason to visit Phoenix on a holiday.

It's very minimal and overrated. "Tourism" mostly refers to elderly snowbirds who spend the winters in Phoenix and mostly stay at home and don't spend any money in the local economy except golf.

Phoenix and Scottsdale in particular get a fair bit of conventions and conferences but now that is dying out as they lose them all to Las Vegas. Vegas keeps building more and better incentives to get the convention business while stubborn anti-development Scottsdale continues to lose them.

In terms of real tourism - people who go to Phoenix/Scottsdale on an actual vacation - it's pretty much non-existent and a myth.

Anonymous said...

The REAL STORY from Scottsdale:

It sucks...the indians have been given all the water rights and last week the entire town of Cave Creek went without water, business' had to shut down.

It is only going to get worse...

This was the hottest summer on record...

Foreclosures are everywhere...neighbors are riping out the plumbing fixtures before they turn the homes over to the banks.

We are the lucky ones, we have sold our home, at a $100K loss, and are just happy to be getting out. We are moving to MN! Yeah!

This town sucks and I am never looking back...

-- Small Hat

Anonymous said...

and another thing...

Picking up take out last night...the guy in front of me had an order for $6.50. He wasn't sure if his credit card would be declined so they tried it...it worked, he was thrilled, he grabbed a bunch more food, then his card was declined, so he started putting food back until the amount finally cleared his card... it is getting ugly in Scottsdale... really, really ugly!

-- Small Hat

Anonymous said...

lake havasu spring break is (or was back in my day) pretty nasty...nasty in a good way

Phoenix golf is over rated and expensive. Can't beat the weather from Nov to April though

Anonymous said...

Where does all the scum and trash who settle in Arizona come from?
Are these broken vagrants the result of the disintegration of the American family?
What are the factors that exist there that attract such a vast collection of misfits and losers?
Is this the future of America?
Depressing....No wonder someone called the anus of the USA.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Picking up take out last night...the guy in front of me had an order for $6.50. He wasn't sure if his credit card would be declined so they tried it...it worked, he was thrilled, he grabbed a bunch more food, then his card was declined, so he started putting food back until the amount finally cleared his card... it is getting ugly in Scottsdale... really, really ugly!

Ha, I have one better. I was in a Starbucks in north Scottsdale and the typical fake-boobed Scottsdale girl pulled up in a BMW wearing her Juicy Couture sweatsuit and huge Chanel glasses. She ordered her drink which came to $4 and change and actually handed the cashier two credit cards and said "put half on this card and half on the other" ... UNBELIEVABLE!!!!

Anonymous said...

and more...

House burned down in DC Ranch last night, fire sprinklers never went on because the water to the house had been turned off.

What do you want to bet it was arson? Near foreclosure? I'm sure the fire insurance was paid up though.

Just amazing!

-- Small Hat

Anonymous said...

Frank --

For a good laugh you should hang out at the Bank of America on Pima/Pinnacle Peak. Last time I was in there, several people were in a panic about how they were going to not be able to pay their mortgage, car note, etc. They seemed to think the Bank should cover it for them, because they were entitle to all that stuff!

-- Small Hat

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Where does all the scum and trash who settle in Arizona come from?
Are these broken vagrants the result of the disintegration of the American family?
What are the factors that exist there that attract such a vast collection of misfits and losers?
Is this the future of America?
Depressing....No wonder someone called the anus of the USA.


My experience in 7 years of living in Phoenix and working in B2B sales is that it's the largest collection of shysters, hucksters and quick buck get-rich-quick artists I've ever seen (especially in and around the Scottsdale Airpark, an office/industrial complex which seems to house nothing but shysters).

I lived in Las Vegas for 5 years before moving to Phoenix and even Vegas didn't have as many scam artists as the Phoenix area and especially Scottsdale. I think they're drawn to the area to be around other shysters like themselves. Sort of how like Federal prison is a big networking center for white-collar criminals. (I know this as a fact from one of my former clients in Scottsdale who did time in the Fed pen for loan fraud.)

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

While you are freezing this winter, we will be wearing shorts and playing outside in the sun.

No, I'm not freezing. Actually I get very warm when I cross country ski or snowshoe so I usually just wear a sweater. A nice fire and my sweetie keep me warm at night. And if we didn't have winter we couldn't have fall which is the most glorious season of the year around northern climes. The only people who complain about winter are usually old farts who are too lazy or out of shape to enjoy winter.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

For a good laugh you should hang out at the Bank of America on Pima/Pinnacle Peak. Last time I was in there, several people were in a panic about how they were going to not be able to pay their mortgage, car note, etc. They seemed to think the Bank should cover it for them, because they were entitle to all that stuff!

I love it! I used to live up there and just about all of the people in that neighborhood can be summed up in two words:

RUDE SNOBS

I'm glad to see they got what was coming all along!! Your stories are great, I put them all up on my blog!

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

No, I'm not freezing. Actually I get very warm when I cross country ski or snowshoe so I usually just wear a sweater. A nice fire and my sweetie keep me warm at night. And if we didn't have winter we couldn't have fall which is the most glorious season of the year around northern climes. The only people who complain about winter are usually old farts who are too lazy or out of shape to enjoy winter.

Phoenix winters are way overrated. It's frequently in the 50s and windy and blustery, more often than it's in the 70s and sunny. In 7 years of living there and frequently traveling in the winter I was always surprised at how comortable I was in winter clothes in places like NYC and Chicago.

The problem with Phoenix winters is it's usually in the 50s and too cold for summer clothes but too warm for winter clothes so you wind up either sweating or freezing, especially with the cold blustery winds.

corvinus said...

Universities are overflowing with students. There is more retail shopping in the valley than imaginable. Major league sports mecca including Spring Training, Pro basketball, baseball, hockey and football.

Pussies like you would never make it here. Im glad you do not live here, because you would bring down the standard.


Y'know, you forgot to end your message with a good "DOPES!!!".

(rolls eyes)

Anonymous said...

Nice threadjacking, guys.

So I guess once evil Scottsdale / Phoenix / AZ is brought to its knees (already happening), we'll all be out of this mess.

I guess all real estate is local after all. Nice to know we're alone in our misery.

Anonymous said...

I used to work in the Airpark and it is a rundown place. Almost all of the buildings back there look like they were slapped together to mexico city standards of aesthetics and quality and I'm sure one of those buildings will just collapse on it's own some day.

Anonymous said...

anonymous said:
House burned down in DC Ranch last night, fire sprinklers never went on because the water to the house had been turned off.

What do you want to bet it was arson? Near foreclosure? I'm sure the fire insurance was paid up though.

Just amazing!
----------------------------------

HAHAHAH!!
I lived within walking distance of DC Ranch for over 10 years in the hellhole of N. Scottsdale in a large single family home.
The monthly water bill including trash pick-up came to about $60 dollars in a occupied residence of 5...these losers shut down the water account to save no more than $25 dollars a month(!) on a sprinkled home! Probably didn't even pay for homeowners insurance and even if they did the claim will most likely be denied as they failed to abide by the policy.
Just indicative of the financially overstretched low-lifes who populated Scottsdale in the past 5 years.
The scum...the horror!

Anonymous said...

housing panic people are idiots/
they do not own houses, they rent/
what they do not understand is that the give back will be about a 10% reduction in price/ a stable few years then back to slow growth/
they are to affraid to ever step up and buy/
they sit around all day trying to justify how they were so dumb to not buy in 1980, 1990 or 2000.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Pussies like you would never make it here. Im glad you do not live here, because you would bring down the standard.

That's really funny when in reality the Phoenix/Scottsdale area is a last refuge for lazy losers who couldn't hold onto a job in a real city. Anyone who has ever been there agrees it's the laziest bunch of people in the US, except maybe Hawaii.

One of the reasons I left Arizona is that my business is growing and no way in hell did I want to have to hire employees from that ignorant cesspool. Every business owner I know in Arizona has nothing but employee horror stories to tell.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Just indicative of the financially overstretched low-lifes who populated Scottsdale in the past 5 years.

I lived off Pima and Happy Valley near Mastro's back from 2000-2002 and even way back then the neighbors were constantly getting their utilities and cable shut off and the repo men were on our street at least once a week picking up the latest Lexus or BMW.

It isn't just the last 5 years. I moved to Scottsdale in 2000 and almost immediately got the sense that it was a bunch of credit-stretched phonies. The housing ATM just made it a lot worse.