September 18, 2007

Gold?

58 comments:

LauraVella said...

Sold most of my gold stocks four months ago.

Only buy gold stocks after the stock market makes the correction.

3deep said...

A very good question. Steady sell offs by investors looking to shore-up their positions on riskier stocks have kept gold stable most of the year - despite the falling value of the dollar. I suspect we'll see gold moving increasing upward as the recession deepens.

Chris said...

Shorted Canadian gold stocks today...strength in gold offset by rising Canadian dollar. Looking for weakness in Canadian dollar gold stock values. Gold mines run on oil. So does the Canadian dollar. This is bad for Canadian gold stocks.

Anonymous said...

I work for a gold mining comany as a mining engineer. (Yes, there is such a profession!) I have accumulated physical gold since 1978. It accumulates in my floor safe with my guns. I know its worth more dollars than I invested in it, though the majority of it is from my profit certificates that I redeem at the smelter each quarter, its tough to cash out of, and I treat it the same way as my old whole life policy, and thats the tendancy to just keep it till things get very, very bad. When things are that bad, I wonder what I will want first from my safe, the gold or the guns?

Anonymous said...

The guns

Anonymous said...

What is pissing me off is that all these big banks and brokerages have these SPVs that have huge losses that they are hiding. This is just like Enron and our financial community still pushes the envelope. Only this time it's bigger than Enron.

Homeowner/debtors (not us at HP) are the only ones who can put a stop to this nonsense. We have to get out of debt and stop giving the stock market gurus more fuel for their computer trading model nonsense gimmicks.

America stop borrowing and spending!!! If you can't afford it , don't buy it!!!

Stop the consumption nonsense!!! And that includes Mcmansions!!!

Anonymous said...

to anno 5:45pm

I say you get some gold plated guns, then its a win win when you need to go for them.

Anonymous said...

I buy periodically via GLD shares and the physical (coins). GLD shares offer the advantage that wild, negative swings in the POG (price of gold) are discounted 90% by GLD's pricing scheme. That said, unless I buy a hell of a lot of GLD, I can't take physical possession of my GLD holdings. This is an undeniable drawback for any number of tinfoil hat reasons.

So today I bought a maple leaf for $736. That's the highest price I've ever paid for a coin. Sad to say, but each time I lay out cash for an all-time (personal) high purchase, the POG corrects violently DOWN.

FYI.

SimiSteve said...

Anon 18, 2007 5:45 AM

Nuff said. But Hey, we get to watch it! Don't forget about food and water...

Anonymous said...

I was buying little here and there. But the price jacked ~$50+. Waiting to see what happens with the Fed tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

I have a few Pamp Suisse Bars. Not many...I just wanted to put a little money where my mouth has been for over 2 years now.

I'd rather have the bullion than some paper/online account IMO.

Anonymous said...

If sh!t hits the fan, gold will be good to have. If sh!t really hits the fan, people will sell their gold to raise cash, and the price of gold will drop.

Anonymous said...

stock up on guns, ammo, food and energy.........people will pay you in gold if it gets that bad.

Anonymous said...

I am proud to anounce that I now have in my possession:

Krugerrands
Credit Suisse bars
Euro Gold Coins(Austrian Philharmonics)
.99999 Canadian Triple Maple Leafs
Swiss 20 Franc coins

The following funds that I own are heavily invested in gold,Swiss bonds,Euros,Norwegian Kronas,and Singapore bonds:

The Prudent Bear Global Income and Safe Harbor Fund

The Permanent Portfolio Fund

Peter and the Wolf said...

Comments made RE Peter Schiff's gold bug advice:

I agree, Peter is the Sh!t!

However, I would caution HPers about taking all of Peter's advice, and making a contradistinction between Schiff and Nouriel Roubini.

Foreign stocks? Some exposure certainly, but the recent turmoil shows how tightly coupled the foreign markets are to the S&P and American economy. If there's a recession, these risk taking a beating every bit as bad as the U.S.

Metals? 5-10% of total assets a good idea. Commodities are also susceptible to a recession -- big buyers include jewelry makers and electronics. In contrast to Peter, NR asserts that these are in a bubble that will also correct.

Finally, Schiff comes to his views through clear thinking and a complicated personal history. His father Irwin Schiff is an outspoken and recently imprisoned (2006) opponent to U.S. Federal Income Tax.

I wonder what fraction of Peter's views are his undeniable sagacity, and what fraction are colored by his unique family experience? I want to trade on the former, but not the later.

Anonymous said...

Did you have gold in 1981? If so your gold would be worth less today.

cobra2411 said...

Watch out for margin calls...

I do have a little gold and silver (my core position) but I'm waiting to buy more.

Magon said...

It can't happen here.

By virtue Of the authority vested in me by Section 5 (b) of the Act of October 6, 2007, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 2008, entitled "An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes," in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists, I, George W. Bush, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin and gold bullion, within the United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of this order:

http://tinyurl.com/2aqduy

Anonymous said...

Did you have gold in 1981? If so your gold would be worth less today.

No, but thanks for asking. Have some now.

Watch out for margin calls...

Don't buy on margin. Zero down on a house is the ultimate in margin buying. Didn't do that either.

By virtue Of the authority vested in me by Section 5 (b) of the Act of October 6, 2007, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 2008, entitled "An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes," in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists, I, George W. Bush, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin and gold bullion, within the United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of this order:

Roosevelt's ILLEGAL proclamation only consfiscated about 20% of the gold in the sheeple's hands at the time. They can't confiscate what they don't know about.

Anonymous said...

I bought some GLD after the run up. The price of gold depends exclusively on supply and demand for dollars. Even as the Fed has cut back on the supply recently, demand for money and credit has dropped faster. There is therefore an oversupply of dollars even in a deflationary credit bust. Gold will do well as the economic contraction gains strength. That's my bet.

Batman said...

I'd say gold is on a short term overbought condition but will eventually go for 800.

Like many, I'm a bit pissed the gold miner stocks are underperforming. If there is a Fed induced reflation and crack up boom, I'd want to hold oil and PM stocks, they'll do well.

Better than holding bank stocks...

Part of what looks like a spike is the drop in the USD. The Canadian dollar is looking really close to par... last time this happened Nixon was being impeached and OPEC was squeezing the West's balls.

fish said...

Better to throw your gold in the ocean than turn it in to Uncle Scumbag! Fuck Roosevelt.....may he roast in hell forever!

Anonymous said...

Anon said:"I say you get some gold plated guns, then its a win win when you need to go for them".



LOL!

Mammoth said...

"Stop the consumption nonsense!!!"
---------
Ding!

We have a winner! Someone here gets it.

devestment said...

Gold is completely unpredictable. I bought in 1973 and won in 80. I expected a run during desert storm and lost. I expected the 1980 boom to never end. I expect high inflation to bolster gold now. I bought in September 1999 at $250 and have sold enough of my position to be in the balance zero dollars. Looking at the volatility of gold long term on kitko charts http://www.kitco.com/charts/ I notice that all historic spikes are short lived. Gold is a financial instrument in today’s world the same as many other tangible assets as a hedge against the dollar. Gold is not a strategic industrial metal. Right now gold is in line with real inflation. I expect gold to loose its luster as we enter recession. We could however see a mania bubble in gold over $1000 first, after that I guess we will return to the mean via over adjustment at about $350.00. Follow the crowds for the answer. THERE IS ALWAYS A FLOOD OF SHEEPLE THAT BUY AT THE TOP. Same as real estate, When the bartender and shoe shine man buy gold its time to sell.

A side note... As a clearing house, I bought a whole lot of gold and silver as the 1991 California HOUSING bubble popped. Big supply, low demand. PEOPLE NEED MONEY. During the housing boom much less came in.

Anonymous said...

Gold is in as big of a bubble as real estate. Oh but they can't make any more of the stuff, I forgot. Amazing how the same people freaking out about one bubble blindly buy into another at the same time. Human nature is so freaking amazing sometimes.

Anonymous said...

Did you have gold in 1981? If so your gold would be worth less today.

If you subscribe to the reserve currency 20 yr supercycle you would have sold off much of your gold in 1980. At the top! And bought U.S. stocks. At their bottom!!

Done the reverse 20 years later (2000).

Anonymous said...

.7:40am


"people will sell their gold to raise cash, and the price of gold will drop".

That's true, but....'most' people don't own any gold at all or very little. Some own a few coins for what peace of mind it gives them.

The current price or even anything over $300 oz. is out of reach of most people. They have other things to worry about paying for.

Gold throughout history was money or a hedge. But as far as an investment, the 1990's really gave gold investors a feeling of hopelessness. It languished, it floundered it did nothing.
So to current mindset the shine of gold was not all to attractive. A generation has grown up with a so so attitude towards the metal.

But because of this don't get discouraged gold has performed well in the past, it just doesn't happen overnight.......but sometimes it does!

Historically, gold served a purpose for thousands of years, so in our lifetime time frame of roughly 80 yrs., don't expect Bull-runs every week or year or even decade.

Buy what you feel comfortable with and sit on it! Don't panic every time it moves up or down $1

Just watch and wait,

Gold glimmers and shines for a reason.



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Anonymous said...

.


With the actual amount of 'available' gold, if every person bought just one oz.......?


What would that do to the price?


.

Anonymous said...

Gold is money. It is the only honest money. It has been money for 5,000 years. It will be money after we're all dead. It will be money long after the dollar is forgotten. No fiat currency has ever lasted. The dollar will not last. We can disagree on timing. It could be 5 years. It could be 100 years. I don't know. But when the dollar is no more, the idea that gold is in any kind of bubble will be laughable.

Anonymous said...

Only people who buy gold are wakcjobs and people who listen to talk radio....but I repeat myself.

airsanford said...

the day is coming, probably sooner rather than later, when an operational firearm and ammunition will be literally worth its weight in gold.

let's say you have a sack of gold coins. Your neighbor down the street has an AK.

at the end of the day, one of you is going to have the gold AND the AK.

Guess who?

Budvar said...

"hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin and gold bullion, within the United States by...."

Then don't hold PMs within the USofA, or if you must, have it in the form of rings, niggaz gryls, Mr T chains etc.

Anonymous said...

Some math...

Total amount of gold (mined so far):

A cube which measure 23m x 23m x 23m

1 m cubed = 1,000,000 ml

Gold's density is 19.3g/ml

Therfore, 1m cubed = 19,300,000g

1 ounce = 28.3495 grams

Therefore, 1m cubed = 680788.021 Oz

23x23x23 = 12167 cubic meters
= 8283147850.9321 ounces

Assuming a population of 6.5 billion people on the planet =

1.2743 Ounces

for every man woman and child.

Total value of all gold on the planet (at 730 USD per ounce)=

6.047 trillion US dollars

OR

4.358 trillion Euro


IB

Illegals Everywhere said...

"America stop borrowing and spending!!! If you can't afford it , don't buy it!!!"

I tell friends & family this all the damn time. They look at me like I have a purple head or something.

Our society is a lost cause! They truly believe that OJ should be the lead story on every news channel.

Budvar said...

"With the actual amount of 'available' gold, if every person bought just one oz.......?


What would that do to the price?

There's a tad less than 5 billion oz of gold ever mined on the earth, with a world population of 6 billion you couldn't do it as there isn't enough to go around at 1oz per person.

Anonymous said...

1977, My dad was approached by a company I worked for that did gold plating. The owner believed his company was awarded the electro-less nickel and gold plating job for the ultra large array of radio telescopes in Socorro New Mexico.

My dad agreed and purchased 650 oz of potassium cyanide (gold) at $42 an oz. He took possession of the gold while the contract was being finalized.

The job fell through and my dad was stuck with all that gold. He was pissed off having put up close to 28K.

About 18 months later, gold shot up over 700 dollars an oz.

My dad discounted what he had off the market price by 5% and sold it all to one gold vendor in India.

He made close to 450K.

He wasn't pissed off anymore.

Sometimes things work out ok.

Anonymous said...

Ah Gold.

The ultimate in inflation protection - but that is it.

As I am sure you all have heard:

Is the 1600's an ounce of gold would by a nice gentleman's suit.

Same for the 1700s. 1800s and 1900s (with some ups and downs).

Today - that would be what - $600/oz?

So - I find it amazing that the HP's who find housing out of whack with historical norms fail to see when gold (bubble) gets out of whack.

I guess we see what we want to see...

Marky Mark

westwest888 said...

If you're crapping your pants about the dollar, just keep Euros, Sterling, Yen in the house. It will be a lot easier to tender than $700 of gold or whatever that would go for on the black market in doomsday.

Anonymous said...

What is pissing me off is that all these big banks and brokerages have these SPVs that have huge losses that they are hiding.

*cough* Lehman *cough*

Anonymous said...

INFLATATION BACKKKK RATE CUT EQUALS BUY GOLD AND SILVER

Anonymous said...

just wait until asia and europe open trading. the dollar is going to be passed around like a $2 whore.

Anonymous said...

Peter and the Wolf said...

...

----------------------

Just because some "economist" says that precious metals are in a bubble doesn't make it so.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Gold is in as big of a bubble as real estate. Oh but they can't make any more of the stuff, I forgot. ...

September 18, 2007 4:20 PM

-------------------

Got analysis to back that up? Or just suffering from oral-rectal inversion?

Anonymous said...

airsanford said...
the day is coming, probably sooner rather than later, when an operational firearm and ammunition will be literally worth its weight in gold.

let's say you have a sack of gold coins. Your neighbor down the street has an AK.

at the end of the day, one of you is going to have the gold AND the AK.

Guess who?

September 18, 2007 5:20 PM

--------------

Sounds like it's time to buy firepower before we're priced out forever.

Anonymous said...

" westwest888 said...
If you're crapping your pants about the dollar, just keep Euros, Sterling, Yen in the house. It will be a lot easier to tender than $700 of gold or whatever that would go for on the black market in doomsday."

Suuuure. America has a knack for dragging everyone down with it. Let's see what the Euro/Yen is worth when all those worthless USD loans go tits up.

I recall the Japanese taking America over in the 1980s. They sold back Rockefeler Center for pennies on the dollar, much like MB sold Chrysler out for likewise.

America's main export is scheisty scams for foreigners to invest in. Let's see the all powerful Chinese economy deal with that when we flatline.

Budvar said...

"let's say you have a sack of gold coins. Your neighbor down the street has an AK."

The only time I'll be walking down the road with a sack of gold will be if I'm wearing a mask, stripey jumper and the sack has the word "Swag" written on it!!

Anonymous said...

.


1.27 oz per person

That's just my point,

ain't much to go around!


.

Anonymous said...

.


On average, people who hold gold bullion,

how many oz or lbs. do they have?

5oz? 20 oz? 5 lbs? 20lbs?



.

Anonymous said...

John Sez:

For those who say "Gold is in a bubble just like housing" it seems to me that you're missing the obvious here: oil is going away. The Gwhar field in Saudi is rumored to be drying up and Cantarel is know to be, with 15% decllines annual -- and that's one of our top three sources for the stuff. To simply assume that this run-up in gold is just the product of mania you'd have to overlook the gathering oil crisis, one that will spur gold to heights unimagined as the dollar collapses.

Anonymous said...

.


Oil, the last great battle will be over oil.

With China's emerging market....like gold, there won't be enough to go around!


.

Budvar said...

"Is the 1600's an ounce of gold would by a nice gentleman's suit."

So how much do you think a tailor made, hand embroidered, silver buttoned, real pearl accented suit made from hand woven cloth would set you back then today?

Anonymous said...

.

You guys crack me up!

Some guy has a pile of gold, another has an AK.

Now one guy has both the gold and the AK,

Do you really think for a minute that if I had a pile of gold I wouldn't also have heavy weaponry??

Not only is the gold well hidden, I would be armed to the gills!

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Anonymous said...

Budvar said...
"Is the 1600's an ounce of gold would by a nice gentleman's suit."

So how much do you think a tailor made, hand embroidered, silver buttoned, real pearl accented suit made from hand woven cloth would set you back then today?

September 19, 2007 4:42 PM

-------------------

Yeah, that puts it in a different perspective, doesn't it? Good quality clothing used to be a work of art meant to last a lifetime. We're not talking about a suit from WalMart or even Sears.

Budvar said...

I'll say "a different perspective", how much would a run of the mill suit with a "Versace" label sewn in it? Not much change out of $5k I bet.

Wheat in 1897 was 40 pennies a ton.
1 penny was 1/2 a gram of silver, so 40 pennies is equivalent to 20 grams of silver, (32grams to 1 troy oz)

Current wheat price per ton is $263, so back then 1 troy oz of silver had the buying power of about $350.

Silver trading at about $13, I think silver has a bit of upside to go yet.

Anonymous said...

.

What is happening or is possibly going to happen is when gold shines!

Be patient!

Anonymous said...

When China and OPEC member nations start dumping their USdollars.....

YOU BETTER HAVE SOME GOLD!!

Anonymous said...

.





Look at me Now!





gold









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