September 25, 2007

Bubble blogs getting a bit of attention now that the market has crashed. Here's two quotes, try to pick which one is from the idiot

A) "Bubble bloggers weren't taken seriously until six months ago, and now everyone's taking them seriously, which is fantastic," said Brad Inman, founder and publisher of Inman News, a wide-ranging real estate Web site. "They really served a purpose when they were a voice in the wilderness."


B) "I laugh at bubble bloggers," said Matt Lanning, a Realtor with Zephyr Real Estate in San Francisco, whose sfhomeblog.com takes a considerably more upbeat view of the market. "I don't claim the world is always going to be stable, but there is no way the San Francisco market will collapse. It's a lot like the sensational journalism we're seeing with subprime mortgages which are far less of an issue than the media is making them out to be."


OK, which one is from the idiot?

38 comments:

Econ_E said...

We're kind of like smokers at an Herbalife convention!

Mike said...

So true.

Mark in San Diego said...

So Keith, would you have wanted the captain of the Titanic to have cried and screamed and told the truth, or did he do the right thing by opening the best liquor and making the last hours more pleasant for everyone?. . .realtors know the score, but they don't want to yell FIRE in a crowded theater. . .if they truely don't know the score, then it is time to feel sorry for them. . .

Anonymous said...

Umm, Hmmm tough call Keith but I think its mmmm. . . B?

Just not which one has a vested interest in the RE bubble and which one is neutral. Get it?!

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/25ssbk

Lennar QTRly loss 1/2 a billion!!!

Mark in San Diego said...

More on feeling sorry. . .Guess I am in a nice mood today - it is raining here in Zuri, and I am catching up on things. . .Realtors - when I moved to SD, every third person I met was a "Realtor". . .now, most have left the field, and the few that remain drank their own Koolaid. One guy took most of his commissions, etc. and bought a million dollar condo (with a small mortgage). . .he is now trying to unload it, and watches the developers lower their prices all around him. If that isn't enough, there are four or five REO's in his building, and the bank is dumping them. He can walk, take a big hit, or try to live the life he wanted to live but now can't afford. . .essentially finding honest work to pay his huge expenses. . .btw, he isn't talking with me anymore, because I suggested he should walk, because it will be 5-10 years (inflation adjusted) for the market to recover.

Anonymous said...

San Francisco is a clue. They're out of touch with reality in general.

GT said...

Lennar posted a third-quarter loss of $513.9 million, or $3.25 a share,

Analysts, on average, had expected the company to post a loss of 55 cents a chare



slightly off there guys, geez
are these only analysts now, i guess it would look foolish if they were 'experts' and that far off

Anonymous said...

mark in san diego,

the difference is the realtors are trying to get people to buy real estate (so they can have their commission). The captain of the Titanic was not trying to get more people to come aboard.

As for yelling FIRE in a crowded theater, when there is in fact a fire that becomes not such an issue...

Anonymous said...

look people... .

RON PAUL has won nearly every GOP debate.

RON PAUL has "RON PAUL REVOLUTION" signs all over the nations freeways and roads.

RON PAUL is the only candidate to even quote the Constitution.

RON PAUL is the polar opposite of hillary and Bush.

RON PAUL wants to save the dollar.

RON PAUL is NOT part of the CFR

RON PAUL is a medical doctor.

VOTE RON PAUL.

DON"T beleive the mainstream media scum trying to hide him.

The Mainstream Media is treating RON PAUL like they treated the HOUSING BUBBLE.

RON PAUL could smoke Hillary, if only the GOP will let them.

BUSH is voting for Hillary.

GOOD ARTICLE FOR DUMBED DOWN BUSHBOTS:

http://www.nationalexpositor.com/News/404.html

LauraVella said...

It's number 2....

Giving up caviar for ramen, but doesnt know it yet.

Anonymous said...

I find this a rather double-edged compliment: "(The bubble blogs) really served a purpose when they were a voice in the wilderness." Does he mean that the blogs have no purpose anymore now when the housing bubble has obviously busted and the media have to report bad news from the real estate market, to not lose their credibility?

keith said...

My favorite part of the article was Patrick saying how ironic it is that the goog ads on his site and mine (which we don't control - goog determines based on content) are REIC, so essentially we rip on the REIC all day and then get paid beer money by them

I hope Angelo's Countrywide is showing up as an ad in the states! Take the orange man's money!

Man, that's pretty cool by me. Especially with $10 pints here

Anonymous said...

Home Prices Post Biggest Drop in 16 Years- AP

The decline in U.S. home prices accelerated nationwide in July, posting the steepest drop in 16 years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070925/home_price_index.html?.v=6

Anonymous said...

Lennar Reports Biggest Loss in Its 53-Year History (Update3)

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder, reported the biggest quarterly loss in its 53-year history after $848 million of costs to write down the value of real estate. The shares fell as much as 6.5 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSApeaZv.Hk8&refer=home

Michael said...

I think what the SF realtor meant was that "crash" is no politically correct. There is no way SF will "crash."

It may become "financially challenged"...
or begin a "different direction of growth"...
or acknowledge that "declines are the new black"...


or...

Anonymous said...

the difference is the realtors are trying to get people to buy real estate (so they can have their commission). The captain of the Titanic was not trying to get more people to come aboard.
------------------------------

And the captain couldn't have possibly thought that the sinking would experience a turn-around in the next quarter and start floating or at least level out!

Anonymous said...

S.F. really is different but that doesn't mean they won't experience the crash.

NOVA said...

Yep, everything A-OK in San Francisco :

Quarterly Affordability Ratios for San Francisco, CA from HPI Fit to Recent Realtor Prices

Year-Quarter Percent Income
2007-2Q 51.8%
2007-1Q 51.2%
2006-4Q 48.6%
2006-3Q 50.6%
2006-2Q 50.6%
2006-1Q 48.4%
2005-4Q 49.4%
2005-3Q 45.9%
2005-2Q 45.0%
2005-1Q 43.7%
2004-4Q 42.9%
2004-3Q 42.9%
2004-2Q 42.4%
2004-1Q 39.2%
2003-4Q 38.3%
2003-3Q 37.5%
2003-2Q 35.1%
2003-1Q 36.3%
2002-4Q 39.2%
2002-3Q 39.7%
2002-2Q 40.9%
2002-1Q 40.7%
2001-4Q 42.3%
2001-3Q 43.6%
2001-2Q 44.0%
2001-1Q 42.7%
2000-4Q 46.9%
2000-2Q 46.3%
2000-1Q 43.3%
1999-4Q 40.6%
1999-3Q 38.4%
1999-2Q 34.6%
1999-1Q 32.3%
1998-4Q 32.9%
1998-3Q 32.7%
1998-2Q 32.3%
1998-1Q 31.2%
1997-4Q 32.9%
1997-3Q 32.9%
1997-2Q 33.5%
1997-1Q 32.2%

Source - http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/california/san-francisco

(view source of HTML if link is too long to see)

Anonymous said...

Home prices have fallen by more every month since the beginning of the year.

Lisa said...

What that SF realtor doesn't get is that the local market doesn't have to "crash" for a lot of folks to be underwater on their mortgages. 10%, 15%, 20% declines would effectively render the "no downpayment" crowd BK.

Heck, even flat prices would ruin a lot of people, anyone who is IO or NEG AM is up the proverbial creek without appreciation.

And at some point, when it really becomes obvious to ANYONE that home prices are not going up, there's no way to tap "equity", etc., I think the willingness to pay these prices will start to evaporate. Why pay 2x, 3x what it would cost to rent, for a non-performing asset?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Home prices have fallen by more every month since the beginning of the year.

September 25, 2007 4:07 PM
---------
Hence the term "Death Spiral" where the descent accelerates hurling one toward the earth at even greater speeds making it less likely you'll be able to pull out of it or live once your crash.

Anonymous said...

RON PAUL WILL GET 0.1% of the vote

When will you loons figure this out already?

Anonymous said...

Oh wow, what an article. Patrick's life and mine sounds 90% identical.

Until I moved back to Mass. in late 05, I did the same, lived the same. I know high tech business is better in Silicon valley, but I have 1 suggestion for him.

Move out of the Bay Area. Real Estate is less weird most other places.

Christopher said...

To equate San Franciscan's understanding of the real estate market with a particular real estate agent blogger (Matt Lanning) is not even in the ballpark. San Franciscans are among the wealthiest and best educated folks in this country and they are hardly naive about the character of markets. We suffered mightily in the aftermath of the stock market correction in 2001; we know what can happen. So, to the mean fella who thinks we are 'clueless', I would politely suggest that you kiss our rich, happy, and contented ass.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

To equate San Franciscan's understanding of the real estate market with a particular real estate agent blogger (Matt Lanning) is not even in the ballpark. San Franciscans are among the wealthiest and best educated folks in this country and they are hardly naive about the character of markets. We suffered mightily in the aftermath of the stock market correction in 2001; we know what can happen. So, to the mean fella who thinks we are 'clueless', I would politely suggest that you kiss our rich, happy, and contented ass.

Is this a serious post? I was just in SF a couple of week's ago and came away with the impression that it's a bunch of buffoon extreme leftist wackos who despise the rich and are working paycheck to paycheck to make the rent/mortgage. I'm happy here in Orange County full of real entrepreneurs and business owners, thank you.

Anonymous said...

Matt, Matt, Matt,

Get a clue! The market is crashing, call it whatever you want...pricing is falling...I have been watching/shopping/waiting for 3 years...for past 3 years nothing under $500k for studios/ 1bdr..now tons, $300-$417 range...sub $1m market is soft, financing is hard to come by...went to Open House Sunday in the Marina - $875 2 br, 2ba, prev, listed about $950k, financing so tight right now 30% required for downpayment.. not everyone has $263k lying around.

Matt if your market is multi million $ props, you may be right, however less than $1m prop's pricing is very soft...and getting softer...no need to hurry into this market..even if they raise the jumbo for this area, buyers will still have to contend with 20-30% downpayments...deal stopper for many.

Don't forget, I/O / ARM resets peaking next July. Still a way to go. There will be a massive build up of unsold properties in SF at asking prices, how long can a seller hold on...max a few months....expect some really good pricing next spring...

Anonymous said...

Matt Lanning has a new job showing off the full monty on Castro St. these days.

Anonymous said...

RON PAUL could smoke Hillary, if only the GOP will let them.

It's not about the Dems vs. Repubs. Those 2 sleep on different sides of the same bed.

It's about the Establishment vs. the Masses. It's about the Haves (or Have Mores) vs. the Have Nots.

Hillary IS an Establishment candidate. She will keep the status quo + enact more Statist legislation. They love her. Hell would freeze over before they would let someone with integrity [i.e., a bitch they cannot own] into office.

Anonymous said...

I agree w/ you frank. San Francisco is the asshole of America. I love the city, the surrounding areas, but the people there live in fantasy land.

I hate to generalize, and I'm sure there are some reasonable people there, but I've never known a place more out of touch with reality.

It is a hippies dream. "Let's all get along and be happy and gay together. Fuck the Man! The man just tries to control us! Bush is after our money!"

SF real estate will crash and crash hard. Hey what do they care, the homeless people get paychecks anywyas, and it'e legal to walk around naked to, so you can sell all of your clothes on eBay

k.w. - southern ca. said...

It's unfortunate that so many of the postings here which described the housing crisis for what it is *months ago*, never got a single mention on the major media sites.

Now, we're put in a position of being reactive to the housing crisis, when we had months to be proactive and start righting the wrongs within the industry.

A large portion of ARMS (approx. 50bil worth) will be resetting in the next few weeks.

And people must remember, it's just not subprime borrowers who took out these loans, but also those whose intention was to live in the house for only 2-3 years, sell it, and move onto another debt trap.

ARMs made sense *only* as housing prices kept appreciating as they had, but now that this wild appreciation has stopped, they will become a viscous cancer which will now eat up finances at an astounding rate.

Those with well paying jobs who also took out these loans will be able to absorb the loss and most likely weather the storm, but the emotional stress and toll this will take on them as well is another matter, not to mention having to admit to making a mistake with their finances.

There are some posters here who still use the phrase "doom and gloom" to describe what many HP blogger's have known to be true all along - it's pure bullox.

The truth will be slamming in the faces of those still in denial more and more as housing prices continue to crash significantly across the country.

Anonymous said...

christopher,

San Mateo has smart and wealthy people. Santa Clara has smart and wealthy people. San Jose has smart and walthy people.

SF has bums, purple haired militant lesbians and other pieces of human filth like that.

Folks, please never ever confuse San Francisco with the "bay area". Worlds apart.

Anonymous said...

So Keith, would you have wanted the captain of the Titanic to have cried and screamed and told the truth, or did he do the right thing by opening the best liquor and making the last hours more pleasant for everyone?. . .realtors know the score, but they don't want to yell FIRE in a crowded theater.

If the Captain of the Titanic had opted to not placate to the owner of Whitestar lines and slowed the ship down during its move through the Atlantic, it probably wouldn't have hit the iceberg in the first place.

Concurrently, if realtors had not been blind and moronic cheerleaders during this housing runup, perhaps it wouldn't have reached the precipace it finally reached before this debacle began to unfold.

And like the Titanic, housing doesn't appear to be "unsinkable". Another factor the realtors were more than willing to gloss over.

Anonymous said...

She is going down by the head

Anonymous said...

to those of you who are not old enough to really know California. I am a third generation San Franciscian, with a lot of my family history firmly there. I bet some of you have been to some of my family buildings that were built by my grandfather. I have also lived on the Penisular and remember when Foster city was Brewers Island. I think that gives me the right to speak out for California and the San Francisco Bay Area.

But with that said I had to escape to another state to get a real life, because all of you phony,moaners and groaners who really screwed up the quality of life. I've seen the market up and the market down in California, but it always comes back and the next down turn is just a little higher at the bottom than the last.

remember the rule of scarcity, when there isn't anymore the price goes up and stays there. Such is the case of a lot of California. There is no more room to build. It is just a matter of time and it will stabilize. This is not for the faint of heart, or those of you that were willing to get into a home at ANY cost, and allowed yourself to be put in such a dumb position. Yes, some of it was the lenders that also created (don't blame the realtor) this mess. The yahoos that touted mortgage backed funds created a food chain for it.
then there were the people that had to have the biggest and best that their plastic could buy. You fed the market, not only in California, but in Washington, Oregon, Montana and elswhere Never Moderation and common economic sense.

Now, we're all experiencing a correction in lending practices that should have been in place a from the beginning. In fact it was there all along but got mutated very quickly.

To the San Francisco Realtor, take care of my city.

Anonymous said...

Both.

Anonymous said...

I agree we're in a bubble, but here's the dilemma that a lot of people are in, including myself. We took on large loans in 2003 and 2004, but many of us were smart and locked in fixed rates - mine is 4.875% on a 30-yr fixed rate. This is the main reason the bubble took hold - people could afford so much more house. So although I borrowed $320,000, my payment is only $1694/month - not bad! So let the damn thing crash - it still beats paying rent. I get the tax writeoff, and in 26 years, it's paid for. Should I move or panic because I think the value will crash? Now, if someone blew it and took out an adjustable loan when they could have gotten under 5% on a 30-yr fixed (no points, by the way), then they were SPECULATORS, assuming that rates would stay low forever and that an adjustable was still a better bet. No doubt, they're about to go through hell. I still think in 10, 20 years, when Sacramento population doubles, my $1,694 per month is gonna look mighty good!

Elena said...

I certainly hope that SF/Bay Area market will adjust itself, but I doubt it. Homes are still selling and anything under 1 mill gets taken as soon as it hits the market.