We're coming up on that moment in time.
Who will it be?
August 03, 2007
What's the one housing or mortgage related company that when it fails, everyone around the world will finally come to understand?
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78 comments:
FDIC
Fannie
Washington Mutual WAMU
countrywide
I second countrywide!!
RMS Carpathia has received the distress signal once again but unfortunately this time will not be steaming to the rescue, and many people will drown in these rough, and extremely frigid waters. Dot Dot Dot Dash Dash Dash Dot Dot Dot
FDIC!!!!
imagine that one!
Fannie and Freddie are going to be OK.
Why? That horrible thing known as "government regulation" which prevented them from going crazy with LiarLoans, 100%, silent seconds, massive cash back yadda yadda.
During the boom the right wingers were whining over and over about "systemic risk" from F&F and how evil big government this is and blah blah blah.
And now they are pleading for help from F&F to "pppplease buy our syndicated MBSes and CDO's otherwise we're gonna die!"
In reality, as we see and as was completely predictable, the systemic risk came 100% from the free-market unregulated side. They are the ones who thought up and pushed all the crap in order to make ginormous profits. They just coveted Fannie & Freddie's profits as well, and wanted it for themselves. There was no ethical principle there.
The right wing talibanists think that people in "government" suddently turn into evil zombies and people in free markets always are virtuous and make right decisions all the time. Uhmmmmm, no. They're just people. Generally sorts of doltish, and mostly pretty greedy.
It's only that F&F had more people inspecting them and preventing them from doing really stupid things to themselves.
I seem to remember a similar phenomenon with electricity deregulation. Remember California? Well, Los Angeles 'opted-out' of the electricity deregulatoin and kept its city-county owned utility (i.e. *SOCIALISM*). All the noise about free markets this and that was just BS. LA never had a blackout and kept low power rates continuously and even made money selling power to its neighbors.
Yeah, communism sure sucks and I don't want to eat at a socialized restaurant, but at some point people will realize that traditional prudent government regulation in selected areas was there for a good reason----learned by bad experience in generations past.
Good judgment comes from experience.
Experience comes from bad judgment. -- Mark Twain.
Oh yeah---my vote: gotta be Countrywide.
WAMU has access to the Fed depository system and can borrow at rock bottom rates.
countrywide
Troll Brothers
an you say illiquid, quite the read here.
http://theimbreport.com/?p=46
Down the stretch we go, and Countrywide is leading by a nose, into the far turn with a 1/4 mile to go the jockey Angelo has gone to the whip, and he is all over this animal I have never seen anything like it in my 30 years of calling races, it is going down to the wire this one will be a record setter, and its Countrywide in a photo, and we are trying to get to Angelo now to ask him how he did this but he is surrounded by the family of this great horse, and we can see why, thank you countrywide this is one for the records.
I don't know... a German bank just collapsed and is blaming it on US subprime.
The whole global economy will have collapsed and people will still be in denial.
Everything is slo-mo, it's BORING. I've been expecting all of this since 2003 (I was managing a financials mutual fund and could see the excess on the banks balance sheets). It's been a long wait.
The only thing I haven't figured out yet is who will be blamed ultimately!
Bank of America.
Too much cdo exposure.
Prompts the Fed to come to the rescue, sending the dollar into the abyss.
Got gold?
IndyMac will be the uh-oh moment for financial professionals.
I'll take Countrywide or, somehown, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to collapse to drive it home to the media folks, in my opinion.
Countrywide is supposedly the nation's largest mortgage company, and lets face it, the explosion of easy housing money has come largely from the mortgage companies and not from the banks (although some has come from there too).
It is the mortgage companies that have lead the "race to the bottom" for lending standards and it is the mortgage companies that have thus supplied the fuel to the housing boom's fire.
As Nationwide goes, so does the housing bubble.
Quicken Loans
YEAH.
.
.
KEEP DREAMING!
.
.
DOPES!
well, this question is immaterial now. marke haines said this morning on cnbc that the sub prime mortgage mess is over (in its affect on the markets) so we can go back to what we were doing now. there is nothing to see here folks....move along please...
Please, please can someone help me? I own US Bankcorp stock (ticker USB) and I am trying to find out how exposed they are to the home mortgage slime to see whether I have anything to worry about-- I want to find out both what is on their books and what will be coming back on their books if the people they sold paper to go under. Is there any websites out their that can give me an honest report on how much banks are exposed?
serendippity - Amen Brotha! I agree w/ 100% of your comment.
Countrywide is my pick too...though they hold my 10 year...wonder who'll be picking up the servicing on AHM's products...PHH?
If PHH went under...wow...
WAMU, ABN AMNRO, CHASE MANHATTAN, OPTION ONE.
If any of these went down it would be big news. You'd know that there was actually a problem that could'nt be contained. All these little fly-by-night, piss-ant lenders closing down really means nothing. They were'nt here before the boom, they should'nt be here after it either.
countrywide
Bear Stearns
Bear Sterns
Citigroup
BOA
Lenders builders and financials getting destroyed today blood is now in the streets BIG TIME
My Guess:CitiBANK and WaMu are the only ones not to get crushed...everyone else S&L Bailout redux
You truly have the curse of Cassandra – endowed with the gift of prophecy but fated to never to be believed. These bank and mortgage company failures are hitting the news now. Since I’ve been reading this blog for two years (while I worked at a Mortgage Bank – Alliance they are gone) everything is like been there got the t-shirt et al. You’ve really done a super job – one question who’s going to win next years Kentucky Derby?
fnm
I win the prize!
Bear Sterns for sure. . .but WAMU might be a good second. . .
I thought I read somewhere that Wells Fargo held the most subprime in the US, or was it that they held the most home mortages?
countrywide
Wells fargo
+1 countrywide just because everone has seen their ad.
Countrywide?
But Tangelo says that they have "access to nearly $50 billion of "highly-reliable" short-term funding."
The market gaming crooked PPT allstars I'd like to go down are Goldman-Sachs but I know that is an impossible fantasy.
Never say never, Goldman is down 20% already
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GS&t=3m
My top five canaries in the coal mine:
1) Fannie
2) Freddie
3) Goldman
4) Countrywide
5) Krispy Kreme
Ok, made that #5 up
5) KB Home
It has to be a bank to get people to really notice, not some lender or builder. Lenders and homebuilder come and go. A bank failure causes real panic, remember the S&L failures of the late 80's.
The ones in worst shape are CountryWide and IndyMac.
You guys all shorting IndyMac are p*ssing off the long term stock holders. It's hilarious reading them vent on some of the message boards that their bank is being treated like a mere slimeball lender company. Too bad...IndyMac wanted to roll in the mud and you can't except to not get dirty.
And to the guy that mentioned Wells Fargo...c'mon get real. Well Fargo is an old school bank, despite foolishly testing the waters Alt-A, there is virtually no chance of them failing.
Can't say for sure, but ufortunately, it won't be WaMu or B of A. They've long since sold off their toxic waste, and their fee-based income has been astronomical in these last 6 years. They probably collect enough overdrafting fees in one week to cover whatever subprime portfolio they're stuck with.
If Cramer's prediction "there will be no distinction between prime and subprime," comes to pass, then Countrywide will be your winner.
I'm a real estate agent. In the last 6 weeks I've had 3 closing delayed due to funding issues at CLOSING. That means the mortgage was approved, finalized and the lender didn't have the money!
The beginning of the end has already started. AHM (10th largest lender in the US) folding was end.
Some of you guys are getting kinda silly now...Bank of America?! Aren't they the largest bank in the US now?
We all hate BOA, especially after their credit cards for illegals scheme, but really, if they were to fail that would be global nuclear meltdown.
These large banks like BOA, CitiGroup, and Chase have signficant assets in property, gold, silver, and many global currencies. They are not dependant on home mortgages to survive.
5) Krispy Kreme
------------------------
ha ha, an implosion from the past.
Rapidly expanding restaurant businesses are another favorite stock category to short. There is great temptation to help fund the expansion via creative accounting techniques between the parent company and the franchisee.
Lehman
They were supposed to be the conservative one.
The Fed will protect the money center banks at all costs. Citi, JPMC, and BoA are failure proof, and guys at the top know it. You HPers can speculate about the smaller outfits, but the big boyz are beyond the realm of mere mortals.
I think Countrywide will become the Enron of the housing collapse. The parallels are interesting, especially when you view the insider sales transactions. The CEO is dumping shares as fast as he can whilst at the same time telling everyone that things are a-ok. Ken Lay anyone?
At this moment:
CFC is the most active share on the NYSE. Down -5.45%. Over 35 million shares being dumped!
AHM -51.01% @ .72 a share
Panic anyone?
Whose CEO will go to jail first Countrywide, KBHome, Toll Brothers or IndyMac?
Freddie.
Oh yea, I forgot:
Bear Sterns
but then again, maybe not. Bear Sterns, for most of the population, is kind of like the monolith in 2001. A curiosity that eventually gets ignored because they can't comprehend it.
I think it will take having unfinished construction sitting around for years. Something that is painfully obvious.
There's only three safe bets in banking - JPM, C, BAC. Those are the money center banks. MCB's are about as good as a Fannie or Ginnie Mae because they're "too big to fail." Not saying it's right, just telling it like it is.
I think a major credit card company imploding would be the black horseman for the US economy. Imagine it - let's say people knew they were going to default on secured loans (mortgages, car loans) and completely maxed out their unsecured loans (credit cards) knowing they were going bankrupt. In the age where an 18 year old can get $20k in credit and a homeowner can easily get $100k in unsecured credit on multiple cards, how far off are we from this scenario.
If Capital One explodes, it'll be a 6 on the richter scale.
If American Express exploded, it'd be a 9.
Ditech/GMAC
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07272007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/americas_moral_paralysis_opedcolumnists_thomas_sowell.htm
Anyone...anyone....anyone... ?
You truly have the curse of Cassandra – endowed with the gift of prophecy but fated to never to be believed
Big Time Funny!
Keith I have believed you all along. when I saw prices go up 300% at my former local in CA, I knew two things.
That I was going to cash out by mid 2005 and that we were headed for financial chaos.
It's going to be a large European bank or maybe an Asian bank, that send shock waves around the world. And it will happen in the next 5 months. GOT GOLD
Washington Mutual
or
Wells Fargo
I'm sorry to be the one to break the chain of silence, but just couldn't help noticing "dopes" is being completely ignored today.
That must really get under her skin.
Countrywide.
Its feeling like the year 2001 again. The country was obsessed with Al Queda and Osama. Then, overnight, America's attention was diverted to Enron and Ken Lay.
This time, it will be Mozillo that takes our attention away from W.
FoMoCo
They will be bought out at bottom basement price.
I thought I read somewhere that Wells Fargo held the most subprime in the US, or was it that they held the most home mortages?
*******************
The President of Wells Fargo. I read somewhere, was on the bridge that fell into the Mississippi River. He climed out of the rubble alive.
Maybe American express. Today I read that AHC started to allow people to make their mortgage payments with their American express card last April.
Bank of Kazakhstan. My sister, number one prostitute in all of Kazakhstan has account there.
Retired Banker said: "but the big boyz are beyond the realm of mere mortals".
LauraVella said: But wasnt Bear Stearns one of the big boys too?
RMBS chop-hack and glue back together iton different CDOs. Spreading far and wide from Shanghai to teacher pension funds, I think the sh*t spreads too thin for most to smell. May not be as bad as people think here. Okay fine!
After seeing Maxed Out last night. My pick is
1. Countrywide
2. Capital One
3. WAMU
4. Bank of America
You guys remember the last scene of Fight Club"..all those explosion!
My vote is BSC - big enough to not ignore and small enough not to cause lasting damage.
Coutrywide passsed out those 2 year ARM pick a pay loans like they were shiney pennies. They gotta go down. Then everything wil be ok with the world and all of you doubters will be eating crow.
HA HA
Bear Stearns may be the company.
And oh, that will be big.
When Indy goes there'll be MASS sell offs of all real estate related stocks by anyone who holds any knowledge of economics at all. For mainstream fools it will be Countrywide.
i say countrywide...
when they die, they will know that there is a serious problem...
they will go first before people like bear stearns....
but i ask........where is the money going ? who has it....?
this is a scam......just like the savings and loan scam....
Wal-Mart
IndyMac will be bankrupt if this Alt-A lockup lasts 2 months. I can't see the GSE's buy Alt-A loans, although it could happen.
The failure that will get the ball rolling downhill is.....Bear Stearns.
Countrywide
Countrywide then BOA
Bring on the hyperinflation, I'll pay back my mortgage with my lunch money, I can't wait. It doesn't matter anyway these Rothschild bloodsucking power freaks are going kill half of mankind and enslave the United States anyway. They deserve it for their undbridled immorality, especially abortion the past 40 years. The whole country has been turned into savages anyway so who cares. Wait until the shiite hit the fan, this horde of illegals will loot Lost Angeles and New Yourke.
GOP
Countrywide yeah because Fannie will not be allowed to fail.
The free market has to be allowed to deliver the rewards AND PENALTIES for decisions. Otherwise you get what we've have here. A bunch of airheaded citizens who always think mom and pop government is going to come to their rescue so they have no problem making bad decisions. They don't even think them through. What we need is a real depression to wake people up. I asked a guy from India, "Why did you become a software engineer?". He said, "One day my father took me out and showed me all the people living in poverty, in the street and asked me if I wanted to end up like that".
That's why we are going to get creamed by India and China in the next decade.
CFC
pwnd
Countrywide -> Wells Fargo -> Fannie Mae -> AmEx -> US Dollar
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