Do you think even the realtors understand now?
August 18, 2007
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46 comments:
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Understand what? That there is a 2% decline in prices after a 200% gain? Yeah I think so.
That comment says it all. My CFC Puts are up over 600%, yup nooooo bubble. Greg Swan just had a post the other day about a great undervalued property in Phoenix. WTF Mr. Swan?
Courtesy of housing-watch:
Miami's inventory is down 3% in the month
In D.C. inventory is down 5% in the past month.
Boston's inventory is down 12% in the past 3 months and down 22% YOY.
Seattle's inventory is down 14% YOY.
Some crash.
Since when? There is no bubble - put you foil hats away - and get out of your parents basement and get some sun.
NYC realtors still think they're immune. Everything's all peachy because there's no inventory and 10-20% of buyers are foreign investors that see NYC as cheap compared to Europe. It feels like a house of cards to me. Somehow they are deluding themselves into believing that we've fixed all our problems and that they can never reoccur. It's their job to make everyone believe everythings okay.
>>>Anonymous said...
That comment says it all. My CFC Puts are up over 600%, yup nooooo bubble. Greg Swan just had a post the other day about a great undervalued property in Phoenix. WTF Mr. Swan?
August 18, 2007 1:06 PM <<<
its absolutey amazing how many people , even ones on this blog , that continue to play in that cesspool known as the american stock market. I highly suggest you get out of that situation and leave those people alone.
There were 3100 sales in SD County last month, and over 45,000 "realtors" in the county. . .do the math 3100 x 12 months (and August will likely be 2500) = 37,200 sales per year - hmmmm. . .not even one sale per Realtor (tm). . .me thinks they now understand. . ."Welcome to Walmart."
Anon's Inventory Figures are NOT TRUE - here is Seattle: From Bubblewatch and Ziprealty:
Population 2007:
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:227
05/31/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:143
01/01: 10,827
01/31: 11,888 (3,062)___01/2006: 8,425 (2,468)
02/28: 12,230 (3,022)___02/2006: 8,527 (3,391)
03/31: 13,210 (4,444)___03/2006: 8,724 (4,772)
04/30: 14,608 (4,451)___04/2006: 9,284 (4,585)
05/31: 16,295 (4,892)___05/2006: 10,018 (5,027)
06/30: 18,546 (5,052)___06/2006: 11,415 (5,597)
07/31: 19,604
08/10: 19,986
To Anon: a 2% decline in housing price IS a Disaster if you are 100% financed. . .add in 6% realtor fee, and you are 8% underwater . . .and that is in a good area - in most of SoCAl, prices are down 10 to 15% from 2005.
Anonymous said...
Courtesy of housing-watch:
Miami's inventory is down 3% in the month
In D.C. inventory is down 5% in the past month.
Boston's inventory is down 12% in the past 3 months and down 22% YOY.
Seattle's inventory is down 14% YOY.
Some crash.
August 18, 2007 1:24 PM
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Of course these select observations prove nothing. The issue is why has inventoru down and also are you talking YOY #s or MOM #s. Me thinks you're just gaming the data and focusing on MOM #s and not YOY #s. YOY inventory #s are still way up.
On the "why" in regards to this MOM inventory drop (I'm assuming your not a liar, which is a huge assumption since your obviously a realtwhore) I highly doubt it has anything to do with the homes actually selling. You just leave it open for people to make that assumption. The reality is that the inventory is dropping because the homes are going into foreclosure, they are being rented, they are just being removed from the market and left vacant, THEY ARE NOT SELLING.
GET REAL LOSER
Anonymous said...
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Understand what? That there is a 2% decline in prices after a 200% gain? Yeah I think so.
August 18, 2007 12:16 PM
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Umm housing is down 10% from peak & accelerating. Demand is cratoring due to lack of mortgage lending, pricing is out of reach of new home buyers & current sellers can't buy a new home because they can't sell their current one. A 10% drop is greater than a 10% increase and we're not even factoring in inflation for the time period. Come talk to me in 3 years after 10% annual drops + inflation. Prising will not return to pre-bubble levels but it will revert to the mean and but for all the bankruptcies and foreclosures economically it will be as if the bubble never happened.
CIAO BITCH
No, they will never understand they will continue to lie through their teeth until they are kicked out of their head.
I was thinking about an earlier comment bashing 5% investments when I remembered a friend who has 150 million in tax free 5% Muni bonds and Treasuries.
He makes big hits in bubbles then socks it away in safehavens.
I want to be stupid like him.
INFLATION COMING HARD
Arson is way up
Seattles inventory is not down 12% YOY it is up over 40%, get your facts straight.
A decrease in inventory was also observed in the 1990/91 housing bust. It didn't prevent prices from sliding further. Maybe it's due to some people removing their house from the market, because they don't have to sell. Must-sell inventory (from moving, REOs) stays and depresses prices.
If the disappearance of cheap jumbo loans from the market is a permanent phenomena, be prepared for Despair in the high-price markets THIS fall.
Is this for real? After the mortgage industry decimated the stock market, the "no crash" trolls are still at it?
What a bunch of morons. Hey, if you believe there's no crash, call me because I've got some nice bridges for sale in NYC.
The myopia of the DOPES-ites staggers me beyond all reason.
So let's take a different tack.
Is it still true that real estate never goes down?
Is it still true that cheap money abounds and liar loans are easily available? How about jumbo loans?
Is the use of the dollar as the worldwide reserve currency growing, or in decline?
Is the yen carry trade that helped fuel the boom still strong?
Do people at Luminent, NovaStar, Countrywide, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, etc still feel like this isn't serious? How about the people who showed up at Countrywide to get their money out and in hand?
If you insist on being myopic, go back to the period 1929-1932 and look at charts and cheer for any micro-ups you can find... because effectively that's what you're doing now.
Federal government apologism and the belief that the gummint (whether federal or local) would NEVER let the people feel any pain (or, indeed, die horribly) are astonishingly forgetful - indeed, in denial!
- Katrina dead, starved, battered and homeless
- Walter Reed "patients"
- radioactive veterans
- 9/11 first responders (still dying without help btw)
- eminent domain victims (Kelo, anyone?)
- overrun border communities
- pier 51 detainees
- free speech zones
You think the criminals who brought us these (and oh so much more) are really going to effectively help? Staggering.
Have you noticed that the MSM still has not woken up to the full scale of this problem..
They still blame subprime... not Alt-A (in it's various incarnations), home refinancing (even prime)..which will ultimately be the far larger problem
They still do not talk about the unrealistically inflated home prices..
They still talk about refinancing.. and going back to the conventional lending norms.. they still don't realise that most houses today in bubblicious ares require exotic or jumbo loans.. They do not mention that actual purchasing power of the american consumer has remained stagnant since the mid 70's..
They still do not talk about real inflation and real unemployment rates..
They still do not talk about loss in consumer confidence and loss in disposable income.. and it's effect on the consumer economy..
They still are trying to salvage the situation with irrational short-term sops(such as increasing freddie-fannie mae caps), they want to reduce lending rates inspite of it's effect on the dollars purchasing power..
when are they (and more importantly the public) going to come out of their cognitive dissonance.. even wiley coyote ultimately realises that he cannot run through the air. No wonder they have no credibility..
Funny picture - though I think the slur against Realtors really wasn't appropriate. While there are some markets that are soft in the US, the market in my area is actually quite decent.
Courtesy of housing tracker
Miami median price down 10.9% YOY
D.C. prices down 10% YOY
Boston down 7.9% YOY
Seattles data looks messed up jumping up and down irratically.
no, they have no clue!
I harken back to the 17 years we could not sell N.Y real estate at a quarter of its tax assessed "value" and the "glee" we felt at selling for a third of that value, to avoid the paying of 18 percent of that sale money in taxes every year
Round two of this imaginary housing bubble crash will be people walking away from their homes. But we're not experiencing a crash!!!
I'm sure that deep down inside, many of them have understood the situation for quite a while. They've just been milking the market while they can so they can try to keep livin' large. I think the question to ask is: Do the realtors understand that they can't keep the game going any more now regardless of their immoral behavior? I've seen and heard enough from realtor slime to know that even if they're stupid, they know what they're doing when they try to screw over their clients. Oh, and the same goes for all those involved on the lending side.
Unemployment up in financials. Fire Departments however are looking for new recruits.
Funny picture - though I think the slur against Realtors really wasn't appropriate.
get used to it...you're in OUR WORLD now baby!
Welcome to HousingPANIC.
realtors - you might find a decent one among a hundred if you're lucky
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OHHaH NOAHH!! Mozirra pop The BAFFOON BARROON!!!AHHEEYYYEEEEEEEAHHH!
This TESTY lil Snert must bepumping up home pricess must be lil pretend brainwashed realtor ...forgive lost puppy !!
No, they're really that dumb
No.
So now that your can't get a jumbo loan, will all real estate in California be priced below $417k?
All realtors suck. They are slime that live like parasite on the financial corpses of those around them. they don't care about people, they hate people, they just want to use them to steal their money. Every last one of them is rotton to the core. they hate people. they hate america. Every last one on them is bad. Them and stockbrokers. They live to steal money too. Bad, bad, all bad. no good ones. all bad ones.
All realtors suck. They are slime that live like parasite on the financial corpses of those around them. they don't care about people, they hate people, they just want to use them to steal their money. Every last one of them is rotton to the core. they hate people. they hate america. Every last one on them is bad. Them and stockbrokers. They live to steal money too. Bad, bad, all bad. no good ones. all bad ones.
August 19, 2007 7:09 AM
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That's why you often find "strippers" getting into real estate. Theyre "wired" perfectly for real estate sales.
On Friday, I couldnt log on to my Ameritrade account. Saturday was no problem.
I doubt Etrade would be much better if everyone was trying to sell/buy stocks all at the same time.
Lost Cause: "So now that your can't get a jumbo loan, will all real estate in California be priced below $417k"?
I'm wondering the same thing LC.
With 65% of all loans in the bay area as some form of subprime, will a buyer have a couple of hundred thou laying around in their bank accounts to put down on top of getting a jumbo mortage?
All the decent homes are way about 417K here in Alameda...
Its going to be an interesting "Fall" season.
ETrade rocks!! * * *
There was a sign on a Catholic Church the other day "The 7th Commandment says Thou Shalt Not Steal. Predatory lending is a sin against the 7th Commandment".
Yeah Catholic Church! Someone had the guts to call it like it is!
"Understand what? That there is a 2% decline in prices after a 200% gain? Yeah I think so."
Sounds like your question is answered Keith. The gibbering retardation out there is still thick enough to cut with a chainsaw.
"The 7th Commandment says Thou Shalt Not Steal. Predatory lending is a sin against the 7th Commandment."
How about predatory borrowing? How about lying about income, assets, and intent to occupy?
Instead of the 7th Commandment, let's go with "Slay them all, God will know His own."
Anonymous said...
Seattles inventory is not down 12% YOY it is up over 40%, get your facts straight.
August 18, 2007 5:51 PM
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http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=Seattle
We can all try to be positive, but the economy will over rule!
We're in a "goose" market, the way I see it. The word "down" is all I'm hearing.
Outside the old real-estate thinking box is where the new agent of today has to head to avoid Hurricane House Panic.
Now's the time to sharpen the service skills.
:-)
Late post on this stupid question of the day. About 3-4 weeks ago I called a meeting with a builder (small local boutique builder) & realtor I've been working on a teardown/rebuild project we've been designing/specifying on for the past year. The meeting was to cancel the project, citing my concerns with a pending meltdown.
The answer from both was that "commercial RE underpins retail in this area." The builder said he had no evidence of any problem. The realtor didn't know where I was coming from.
They get it only 10-20%, thinking that CNN & the stock market reflects what is going on; they fail to see what is happening under the surface. They'll never get it until some movie or large-type magazine can explain it for them.
We're seeing the credit pie eaten from the outside in, starting with the hedgies and of late, the banks. What looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and craps like a duck is actually our first major bank run. The afore-mentioned realtor might understand it when his checks won't clear or the ATM is locked up or his gas station only accepts coins with silver in them.
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