It's all happening now, wouldn't you say?
August 01, 2007
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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122 comments:
Not yet. What about 300 Trillion of Derivatives to unwind?
Isn't there an actual hurricane headed for Florida?
That depends if peak oil has happened or not. Right now it looks like were on a plateau.
OPEC keeps saying they'll boost output but they never get around to doing so. I've seen credible analysis on theoildrum.om saying their reserves are largely mythological and at best they have 1/3 to 1/2 of the oil they say they do.
What this means in regard to the financial markets is that a shrinking energy supply translates into a recession that becomes a depression. You cannot have GDP growth and a shrinking energy supply for an extended period of time.
The part where things will get really nasty is that unlike back when money was gold and silver, a fiat currence system depends on growth. Money is dept, and debt must be repaid with interest. But the economic growth to create the interest payments is no longer there, the result is stagflation.
What's different from the 70's this time is that OPEC cannot boost output this time to save things. As lenders realize there is not going to be any future growth it will become impossible to borrow money, and the system breaks down.
It feels like right before New Orleans got destroyed and the first waves were coming onto the beach while people were still drinking in the Latin Quarter or watching TV in their homes
"It feels like right before New Orleans got destroyed"
Exactly. HPers and others have been jumping on that friggin dam for a while and screaming to everybody to get the hell out because this sand dam is not going to withstand jackshit.
The ignorant crowd of course did not respond at all and did think us as somekind of weird cult of pessimistic rain dancers.
Well, fuck you all naive permabulls. I quit and will be heading for the hills. Here is a fucking snorkel, have a nice time drowning. Out of my way!
It's all happening now...like clockwork.
I can smell it in the air - all the birds are gone - theres a eerie sense of something about to happen.
I left Tim73's post up because it shows the anger and desperation and exasperation we HP'ers feel that we knew what was coming, years ago, and so many wouldn't listen. And now they'll drown.
Ignorance was one thing. Listening to realtors and the MSM was another. But when you're under the waters, at that point I don't think you're looking for someone to blame.
Note - the F word is spelled F*ck on HP, OK?
06:17 am : FTSE...6245.90...-114.20...-1.8%. DAX...7500.29...-83.85...-1.1%.
06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0.
06:17 am : Nikkei...16870.98...-377.91...-2.2%. Hang
The weird thing right now is the sell off in assets that should be going up. Oil continues to rise, but the oil majors fall (wtf?). The dollar is weak, the 10-yr note is sinking, and, yet, precious metals fall. Eh?
I sniff margin calls...lots of margin calls.
The much-derided 5% CDs are looking mighty good right now.
Oh by the way, Jack Bouroudjian, a trader at the Chicago Merc, was on CNBC this AM and predicted flat out that the Fed will drop interest rates.
If the Fed does, then a bunch of bankers in Asia are gonna' be mighty pissed. On the other hand, anyone who owns gold or silver will be quite pleased.
We live in interesting times.
PUMP-N-DUMP inc.
Welcome to the new world.
World Markets: RED across the board!
The Great Depression of 2006
Housing Death Knell for the Economy
Between January, 2005 and today, 16 million houses have been sold. Let's figure that the new owner probably paid double of what is was worth. So a 100k to 300k house was purchased for 200k to 600k. Figure that the new market price averages out to 300k.
Multiply 16 million homes by 300k and you end up with 4.8 trillion dollars worth of homes that have mortgages with less than desirable collateral. The owner paid too much and is struggling to hang on. So 50% of that total is about 2.4 trillion dollars. This was money added to the economy that no one had to work for, AKA bubble money.
In the past, the yearly appreciation of the home meant that the money extracted never had to be repaid. Now, the house has ceased to appreciate in value. To the over extended home owner, this change of the rules is just not logical. Everyone knows that housing always appreciates.
The US census lists the total number of housing units in the United States as 125 million as of 2005. How much equity was pulled out of all of the remaining units (125-16=109 million)? You really don’t know where to even start. We could double what was calculated for the 16 million homes purchased and call that an estimate of what the housing owners extracted from their new found equity. That would put the amount of bubble money introduced into the economy at 5 trillion dollars. This money flowing into the economy has stopped. Coincidently, the total United States budget for the last 2 & ½ years was also 5 trillion dollars.
When you realize that the last time we had something this bad in the housing market, it took 5 years to get where we are at now, and we’ve done this all in one year. Talk about over achievers, we’ve outdone ourselves!
The economy is what will be hit and hit hard. It may take time, but what is about to happen, is now more than obvious.
On the lighter side, here is some good news; Congress is going to pass a law to double the number of feet in a mile from 5,280 to 10,560. This will cut our distance to work by half thus decreasing gas consumption by 50%, God bless them!
Let's sing together and follow the bouncing ball
Come gather round people
wherever you roam
and admit that the waters
around you have grown
and accept it that soon
you'll be drenched to the bone
if your time to you
is worth savin'
then you better start swimmin
or you'll sink like a stone
for the times they are a changin
And yet Paulson is saying the economy'ssuper duper awesome.
Reminds me of the scene in Animal House where Neidermeyer is shouting remain calm, remain calm as the riot is gaining momentum.
Tha being said...
The main thesis of HP has been correct....housing downturn with most likely a stock market correction following. Tim73,the reason nobody took you seriously is because you also talk about peak oil, the PPT and other tinfoil issues. Stick to making rational economic analysis next time and people will listen. Go out into John Birch Society land and everyone will ignore you.
Come on folks this isn't rocket science here.
Since the people in here have been watching and warning for several years, has anybody come up with a GOOD PLAN, as to what to do?
Because it will blow over, and the people who will make money off it are the crooks and liers. This place seems to be populated with a lot of intelligent and creative types that could come up with ideas other then just covering their own butts.
whatever...
Guess it will be like Hurricane Katrina then, no government aid and all these houses will just sit empty while people scramble to find some kind of tent to live in. Hey, aren't all those fema trailers still empty?
Check it out: http://tinyurl.com/22qxgo
Harvard lost $350M in the meltdown of hedge fund Sowood Capital, who invested heavily in mortgage backed securities.
I wonder if that REIC bijon frise, Nicolas Retsinas, gave Harvard the green light on this one.
Britney’s [Spears] LA-area mansion, a six-bedroom house in Beverly Hills, remains on the market for just under $7.5 million.
Wall Street is now in full "HousingPANIC" mode.
The Blog title has come true.
Joe SixPack isn't there yet, but he's on his way.
"That depends if peak oil has happened or not. Right now it looks like were on a plateau."
Past in December 2005 - total liquids of 74.1 million b/d (not including non conventional).
T. Boone Pickens says we will never produce more than 85 million b/d in Mayy 2007.
OPEC CANNOT raise production...it is tapped.
Cantarell in Mexico will be COMPLETELY out in 7 years.
No folks...game over.
This IS the big one.
Hope you have spent your HELOCS on food, ammo, seeds, bunker..etc...
oh wait you bought an ATV...oh sorry.
Enjoy the die off.
And to think Keith posted me as a troll a bout a year ago for posting about this and 9-11.
He Keith - repost that thread for old time sakes before the internet goes down...I think it still holds highest posts thread on HP.
Cheers.
Making popcorn as I type. Waiting for my setups to hand someone their financial head. This week fits in nicely with Shark Week on Discovery, as there will be so much damn blood in the water it's scary.
300 trillion in derivatives? Maybe in 2005. There's much more now.
OMG World panic...look....
RED
RED
RED
RED
RED
RED
RED
RED
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, reported that Bear Stearns now faces big losses in a third fund with about $900 million in mortgage investments.
Out here in non-bubble land it's finally starting to sink in. Some locals are actually talking about the economy. Now, thet are not sure WHAT they are talking about, but even here the scent of the ill winds are starting to drift in!
Smaller, laid back areas like mine will be in total shock when the big one hits, most still don't have a clue about what the term "ripple out" means. You don't have to be in flyover states to be surrounded by hicks.
OK. FIRST OFF LET ME SAY, I WAS PULLING YOUR LEGS ALL ALONG.
.
.
I WAS PLAYING THE DEVIL'S ADVOCATE.
.
.
I WAS ACTUALLY GETTING FRUSTRATED THAT THIS PHONEY ECONOMY KEPT GOING ON AND ON AND ON.
.
.
I WISH THIS WHOLE HOUSE OF CARDS WOULD COME TUMBLING DOWN, BUT NOW THAT I SAID THAT, IT WON'T!
.
.
.
.
BY THE WAY, YOUR STILL DOPES!
Lets not pop the corks just yet. If I wanted to buy a house in my area today I would still have to pay $700,000 for anything half-way livable.
The problem we are facing is outrageous housing valuations that lead first-time home buyers and refinancers to financial ruin.
People were denying the existence of this problem for so long and now that there is some glimmer of main stream recognition of the problem of overvalued housing you are all celebrating like the problem has been solved. Well the problem has not been solved, housing prices are still outrageous.
I guess you are all feeling vindicated because people have for so long did not believe you. Sort of like that movie The Day After Tomorrow where that environmental scientist is ridiculed in Congress for his dire predictions of the imminent climate crises.
Of course we were right all along. Of course we are in the midst of the most massive housing bubble in recent times. Main stream media is waking up to this fact but what scares me is that American society will view the housing correction as the problem rather than as the natural solution to the problem of overvalued housing ruining the lives of so many young people. What I fear is that the federal government will intervene to protect these extreme valuations with government bailouts, new loan programs and additional tax breaks to home owners.
For this reason I cannot celebrate with you at this time. If the middle class is to succeed in America for a little while longer, we need reasonable housing valuations, not new loan "products." We are so far away from reasonable housing prices that I cannot even begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
dow up 50
yeah it's happening
once again you idiots are proven wrong
The futures were down hard, but the INDU opens green. I wonder who could be gaming the system? PPT anyone? What a frigging sham this all is, and it's why I wait for setups instead of just jumping into the water.
Yes, I think it just might be happening now. For example, here is my day yesterday:
I spent most of the weekend cleaning out my garage and had a load of stuff to get rid of. Yesterday, I took all of my stuff over to Goodwill. As I was helping unload the car, I noticed the realtor we used as a buyer's agent 4 years ago shopping inside the store. Sales are almost non-existant in my part of Florida. I wondered if he was shopping there out of necessity.
It got weirder when I was checking my email last night. I got a message from a realtor who hosted an open house we attended 4 years ago. I haven't heard from this guy since that day. He must have dug out a 4 year old guest book and sent us an email out of desperation. It had a bunch of his listings and he wanted to know if any met our "home search parameters at this time". Umm, nope.
I felt a twinge of sympathy for these guys for about a nanosecond and then I got over it. I'm starting to wonder if we will see realtors on the side of the road holding signs that say "Will sell your house for food".
slowly but surely.
2008 - a bona fide nationwide housing crash
2009 - lawsuits (attorney generals, class actions)
2010 - the heavy hand of regulation
2011 - uncollateralized student loans (looking at you Sallie Mae, Citigroup/Studentloan.com) go into record defaults (25%+ default rate) at an average indebtedness of $80,000 a student who went to a private lender to pay for private school
2012 - US corporate debt default hits S&P500 into the recessionary cycle (Dow 30 is safe but bleeds billions in cash off their balance sheets built on the bull market)
Who says the Russians don't have a sense of humour? Do these assholes think the West will simply hand over the North Pole? LOL!
Russia claims North Pole with Arctic flag stunt
By Matthew Moore
Last Updated: 2:08pm BST 01/08/2007
An audacious Russian mission to claim the North Pole for Moscow is due to reach its climax in the next 24 hours, after a week-long journey through thick ice-sheets.
The two Russian submarines are lowered into the Arctic Ocean
Two Russian vessels - including an atomic icebreaker - are expected to reach the Pole this afternoon.
There they will release two mini-submarines which will drop a metal tube containing a Russian flag onto the seabed. The release is likely to take place tonight or tomorrow morning, according to organisers.
The gesture, while symbolic, marks an escalation of the growing international dispute over who owns the Lomonosov Ridge, a 1,240 mile underwater mountain range that crosses the polar region. It is thought to contain rich oil and gas deposits.
Moscow believes the research mission will prove that the ridge is a geological extension of Russia, and can therefore can be claimed by Russia under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Denmark believes that the ridge is in fact an extension of the Danish territory of Greenland.
The US and Canada are also anxious to defend their Arctic territory, with both planning billion-pound investments in new patrol ships.
More than 100 Russian scientists are on the Akademik Federov, the expedition's research vessel.
While on their dive the mini-submarines are due to collect specimens of Arctic flora and fauna, as well as researching the geography of the Lomonosov Ridge.
They will reach a depth of 14,000 feet before dropping the flag cannister.
The most difficult part of the mission, scientists say, will be getting them back to their point of departure to avoid them being trapped under the ice.
The expedition comes amid an outpouring of nationalist fervour after Russian scientists claimed in May that they had evidence to back up a long-held claim to nearly one million miles of the Arctic.
If upheld, Russia could have access to oil and gas deposits potentially worth more than £1 trillion.
In a speech on a nuclear ice-breaker earlier this year, President Vladimir Putin urged greater efforts to secure Russia's "strategic, economic, scientific and defence interests" in the Arctic.
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped 5 percent to 102.4 in June.... put your foil hats away.
Where's the beef?
The deepest blows will not happen until after Labor Day. I'm sure the PPT is pissed about having to interrupt their vacations for all of this.
"one thing led to another"
No more trolls! The animals know when something is about to happen. It is like when you are scuba diving and all the fish suddenly take off because a large predator showed up and the ocean is now empty just you and what ever scared the fish away. Eerie feeling.
Nice pessimistic views of where America is headed. There are many viewpoints of how this scenario is will eventually play out.
On one hand there are the survivalists who stockpile enough weapons to wipe out everybody in a city, and who believe that this country is going to descend into an Iraq-style situation.
On the other, there are those who wear rose-colored glasses as they drive their SUV’s and buy everything on credit, who believe the worst that will come is that their 401K’s will take a beating over the short term and then recover.
My guess is that we are headed somewhere in-between these two situations. While on the way home from a hike in last Saturday, we had a lively discussion about this. The conclusion was that America will most likely descend into the situation that Russia went through in the late 1990’s, in which the value of their money (and many people’s life savings) dropped considerably. Suddenly, the masses became poor and were just barely scraping by.
Of course there were - and always will be - the very rich, who were not touched by these economic woes. It will be the same for us.
I remember when I was there in the summer of 1996, a Russian man brought me to his garage, some distance from his house, where he stored his car and had a workshop. Underneath where the car was parked there was a cylindrical room, about 15 feet down that was accessed via a ladder.
There was a circular bin, which ran the perimeter of the room at floor level, that was full of beets, carrots, and potatoes. On shelves above were large jars full of home-canned jam, pickles, and pickled tomatoes.
He told me, “this is what feeds us – what we eat in the spring, fall, and all winter long.” Luckily, this person owns a piece of land outside of town, where he and his family can grow their food. This made the difference between barely scraping by, and being able to live decently.
See, in Russia and in many other countries, food takes up a much higher proportion of a family’s income than it does here.
But if you’ve bought groceries recently, you know we are headed in that direction. Got seeds? (Oh, and having some land also helps.)
-Mammoth
hey keith,
what do you think will be the next big news?
- sub prime meltdown - check
- RMBS hedge fund meltdown - check
- alt A meltdown - check
- corporate credit meltdown - check
i think it will be one of the GSE's blowing up or benny raises the rate.
The basics are there but prices have come down maybe 5-10% in some areas and none in most.
Still 6-12 months out.
No panics yet
Marky Mark
Pending sales up 5%....oh wait no they are down 8.6% YOY. I had to get to the 7th paragraph of the story before that was mentioned.
Oh and how many of these pending sales will not get qualified for a mortgage? And how many are contingent on another sale?
Shhhh the MSM dare not ask these questions.
not sure. but it looks like it. no other time in our history have so many been keenly aware of what is happening or about to happen. we have the internet to thank for that and on the internet we have the blogs to thank for this. because the blogs and the internet cannot be stifled and cannot be controlled. the information flow goes where it may and none can stop it. (at least not yet and i am afraid this is about to change) but nevertheless, we can witness this meltdown and study it and understand it like no one has ever been able to , before.......
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/070801/1/4a9y7.html
WORLD STOCKS IN MELTDOWN OVER US ECONOMY FEARS..
must be getting pretty slippery out there.
Must be pretty bad Keith. Where are you?
Need an update.
Platinum -Limit down on Tokom
Gasoline price divergence from Crude(Cal prices lowering to under3.00/gal while cude nears a record)
Gold Volatile.
__________________________________
Platinum is an Industrial Barometer,Cars, and Gasoline production rely or use PT in great amounts relative to others.
The last time crude ,and Gasoline prices diverged the Market snapped ,and Crude corrected from it record highs down into the 60dollar area.Gasoline prices going lower are all over the MSM reports these days,but they of course ignore the reason why.No Demand,just like last time.The glut of crude is building again.
Gold is swinging up ,and down in a range.Looks like alot of strong hands are in.Italy is threatening to dump gold,the gold bugs say go for it.The Moment of truth comes.
This morning I had a heaping bowl of CREDIT CRUNCH...it has enough fiber to make me sh*t for a month straight.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2007/07/patrick_adminis.html
"..the administration is considering a foreclosure prevention initiative that calls on lenders to delay foreclosure proceedings in some cases; reduce loan amounts and waive prepayment penalties in others; and work to transfer vacant, foreclosed properties to first-time home buyers or nonprofit agencies."
This sounds like a good plan.
MSM running the ol"running outta land " crap this week.The Story is about permits needed in LA for 200sq/ft apartments.Then the hype about no land ,and then turning it into a near crisis situation.
Before the Markets did that face plant yesterday they were also telling stories about GM's incredible "comeback".Within a week no less.
Then the incredible happened-GDP comes out at 3.4%.
The Market took all the shizzle with a grain of salt,and did some DUE Dilligence,came back and sold.
The desperation is in their voices now.MSM has completely Failed their own country.
heard beazer(sp) is being probed by the SEC.....
Not yet. What about 300 Trillion of Derivatives to unwind?
August 01, 2007 10:29 AM
==============================
That's the storm to end all storms.
$300 trillion in derivatives should show us all just how crazy and insane the bankers have become.
This is like the tide rolling away before the Tsunami wave hits!
Some will drown some get washed away....others head for higher ground!!!!!!
Got Gold?
Hey, everything is fine- pending home sales are up 5% this month.
"Number of Americans Moving to Canada at 30 Year High"..on the Drudge report, but the link to ABC has been moved...will not show webpge.
Keith are you packing?
Pending home sales up? I was thinking, who the hell would buy a house now, but then thought of the friend who bought a few days ago in Hollywood for "100K off."
"It feels like right before New Orleans got destroyed"
Naw, for me it's more like the superbowl except it's going to be just as exciting for another 12-24 months. I'm just popping popcorn and watching the excitement from the sidelines (renting).
I do have plenty of stocks though, just not in the US. I do think the collapse in the US will hurt European and Asian stocks. However, I think the hurt will be minimal and by the time the dollar TANKS this fall/winter to 2:1 versus the Euro, I'll make money just in the conversion.
bwa ha ha ha ha
bwa ha ha ha ha
stocks up big
house pending sales up 5%
renters holding 5% CDs lose again
now back to the shithole 1 bed apartment morons
The next Bubble is The Energy Sector, including Grain, according to ITULIP and this.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IH01Dj01.html
The analogy to the hurricane scenario is especially appropriate. Some people won't leave no matter how bad it gets, and they'll pay the price of stupidity.
I think that Katrina hitting New Orleans also provides a valuable insight with regard to government assistance. FEMA will no doubt demonstrate their competence, such as it is, in the next disaster that America encounters.
I hate to be the spoiler here (because I also want the this decade long ponzi scheme to collapse), but all it would take is a 100 bp drop in interest rates by the Fed to get the dying patient back on the dance floor.
Sure the dollar would be trashed but they have the perfect cover -- we need a lower dollar to close the yawning trade gap. A rate cut would save all the idiots with ARMs that are facing resets in the Fall and early '08. And the private equity party would be given a shot in the arm.
Even that idiot Fed Governor Poole said yesterday that any severe spillover from this sub-prime debacle would be assuaged by Fed intervention.
"The ignorant crowd of course did not respond at all and did think us as some kind of weird cult of pessimistic rain dancers."
I suspect that I'm not the only one to say this, but many in the "ignorant crowd" are our family members and friends. I hope they still love us as we rise a toast to the end of the housing bubble at Thanksgiving. Here-Here!
Meanwhile, us bears are about to earn a massive dose of RESPECT!
......and it keeps coming. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avZr736O8xUw&refer=home
Burlington Northern profits are down 8%,Cat21%.
Have noticed the the lack of movement on RR around here,trains just sitting.No fuel being burned up here.
DuPont- slow down due to shrinking sales of kitchen counter tops carpets etc.Alot less petro needed here.
CountryWide-sets aside 292.9 mil for losses this year well above last years61.9mill.
Consumers took out 400Billion(B is for Billion)less is home equity this year.Petro/crude is surely losing sales to part of that.
Retailers will feel it most.
Gallon of Gasoline at $2.89 in some California areas,and is big news even in the Mass Media.Only one thing makes that happen-Reduced Demand. crude oil just hit a record,but will need a war to stay there,or maybe hyper inflation.
That depends if peak oil has happened or not. Right now it looks like were on a plateau.
Actually, I think that the worldwide recession that is long overdue will reduce the demand for oil to a trickle. Much of the worlds wealth, which is just paper, will evaporate. I don't think you need to worry about peak oil for a few more decades.
I'm standing in the desert, waiting for my ship to come in.
Enhh some stupid CNN report came out today or yesterday saying that more houses are being bought and more are in the pipe...bleh. The ole finger in the dam trick, more propaganda but I bet the average Joe may not be buying this anymore.
Pending home sales index shows surprising gain in June, suggesting more deals to buy houses are in pipeline to close.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
August 1 2007: 10:48 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home sales could see an increase in the coming months, as the latest reading on the state of the battered U.S. real estate market from an industry trade group showed surprising strength.
Must be about like Hell's Kitchen over at Bear Stearns right now. Wonder what's cookin'. I would say we are now most certainly in the fear stage. Stocks are boiling, credit markets are going up in smoke, and 401ks are being shredded like lettuce. Ouch! Greed is a bad, bad thing!
Yea it's happening!!!
I'm not sensing fear and concern in Orange County. I'd love to see 50% pullbacks in both real estate and equities, but I'm just not witnessing concern around here. It is big homes, expensive cars, lots of retail shopping....life as usual in Newport Beach.
This is the start... I've got the truck backed up and I'm loading on shorts... I've got a bit of gold and silver, cash and I've got a pair of .45's just in case things get really ugly.
hey what happened with indymac? werent you drooling over their results coming out the other day? what happened with them?
KEITH ARE YOU OK?
Go ahead HP fools, fight the Fed. Do you really think the guys on Wall Street are going to roll over and play dead? Hell no, they picked up the phone and now Bernanke and Paulson are busy fixing this little problem. The markets are going up again because they have to go up. If more liquidity is needed, it will magically appear.
Mouthpiece Cramer dared the Fed to drop the discount rate by one point. I guarantee if Countrywide gets into trouble, we'll see that one point drop. Elections are coming next year, so you HPers better factor in at least two more years of this crazy party before those Armageddon wet dreams come to pass.
Guys....the world is not coming to an end. I think fiscal conservatism will be the mantra for the next 10-20 years. I say....Thank God. If our standard of living goes down...I say Thank God.
BTW....did I miss the memo which said every person in a household needs a car.....every child their own bedroom? Did I miss this f*cken memo?
I embrace and look forward to the future.....why the fear?
Sorry 'bout the rant.
Just got back from a morning of SD jury duty. . .a room of 400 people - didn't know there were so many Anglos in the County . . .guess the registered voters are 90% Anglo. . .hmmm wonder if everyone else I see walking around really IS illegal. . .
Got to talk with a cross section of people while we were waiting waiting, waiting - there IS fear in the air about housing. . .I talked with 3 people who said there were foreclosed houses on their blocks. . .everyone now agrees that housing prices are going down, and probably will take a few years to reach bottom. . .kind of interesting - I told a guy I was renting, and he said, "that's really a smart thing to do!". . .how times have changed.
Peak oil production likely won't happen for another couple of years. Hopefully we get out of this recession before that happens.
As far as them lying about their reserves, that is mainly true. Kuwait already came out and stated that their largest oil field only contained 1/2 of what they "thought" it did. 0.5% of the world's oil supply basically disappeared with that admission.
Be careful of what you read on the PO sites though, a lot of it is propaganda and the world isn't going to end. What it means is that we have to suffer a lot of inconveniences (and possible resource wars like the current one) until we can get new infrastructure online. I've been reading about alternatives to oil and there's some really, REALLY cool stuff out there.
Wow, I just went waaaaay OT.
GL to everyone out there taking advantage of the credit crunch.
Hey, Keith, I can't believe you didn't pick up on this current MSM BS, which once again didn't put emphasis on YoY figures:
"Home sales may pick up
Pending home sales index shows surprising gain in June, suggesting more deals to buy houses are in pipeline to close.
(CNN) -- Home sales could see an increase in the coming months, as the latest reading on the state of the battered U.S. real estate market from an industry trade group showed surprising strength.
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index jumped 5 percent to 102.4 in June, the group announced Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the index would slip 0.6 percent after a revised 3.7 percent drop in the May report.
It was the biggest increase in the index in three years. But that is up from a May reading that matches the second lowest on record. Only September 2001, the month of the terrorist attack, had a weaker pending home sales reading than May.
And even with the increase, the June reading is 8.6 percent below the June 2006 level, showing that there is still weakness in the market.
The index was created in 2001 to be a more forward-looking reading on home sales than the group's existing home sales report, which charts sales at the time of closing. The pending home sales index tracks when a sales agreement is signed, generally a month or two ahead of closing.
Even the Realtors weren't willing to state that the housing market has turned around, although it did say the pickup in the index is good news.
hello hp
dow up 150 but you knew that
pending homes sales surged last month but you knew that
how's that end of the world doomsday thing coming these days?
losers
Hahahaha! The bell rings and the score is PPT 1, HP doomsayers 0. Do any of your still doubt the power of the Fed and the PPT?
Don't fight the Fed.
Hellooo, PPT to the rescue at the last minute today. PPT is so predictable...hey, but there are still a lot of sheeple out there blowing Karl Rove and Kudlow.
No liquidity, no way to calculate the hole from bankrupt Hedge Funds, housing market dead, mortgage companies imploding, consumer confidence down, REAL inflation skyrocketing, even Johnson & Johnson is laying off employees, dollar in the toilette, etc...
BUT HEY, CNBC, REIC, MSM, PAULSON, AND BERNANKE ARE SAYING "IT'S ALL GOOD!"
Rush rush, sheeple, go get a mortgage to buy a McMansion you can't afford, go be upside down on a Mercedes lease, run to the Wal-Mart to buy crap from China on your rip-off credit cards.
The Dow just hit 150 points in the last 15 minutes of trading...It's all good! Poof! The long term bad fundamentals just disappeared in 15 minutes...
Legalized mafia everywhere, ladies & gentlemen!
Home sales are up because banks are foreclosing on record number of homes which records as a sale. I wouldn't get too excited about the NAR numbers they have been a little wrong before.
DOW closes UP $157.
DOPES
I remember some guy told me in a chat room years ago, that the ratio of the 'something to the something' has always been the same since Jesus's time...ie if home prices fall, interest rates go up, so you still end up paying a fortune. Sorry to sound like such an idiot. Wish I could remember exactly what he said. Guess the fed will just sit it out a few years and once that $350,000 house is now $120,000, interest rates will be at 10-15%. I must sound like such a moron.
"dow up 150 but you knew that
pending homes sales surged last month but you knew that
how's that end of the world doomsday thing coming these days?"
And I'm sure it's just a coincidence the yen took a dive at the same time the Dow rose.
Try and read up on the yen carry trade.
"Who says the Russians don't have a sense of humour? Do these assholes think the West will simply hand over the North Pole?"
And what can the "West" do, fight for it... with Russia? A bunch of weak, no-natural-resources, debt-is-wealth economies sure can win against one of the coming-back superpowers. And remember, them Russians are friends with them, Chinese, who have the biggest military in the world and have been modernizing it rather swiftly over the past few years.
Brush up on your geopolitics before you post something moronic like that.
SOME ONE IS PRETENDING TO BE ME HERE.
.
.
I DON'T LIKE THAT.
.
.
ANY WAY, HOW'S THAT CRASH COMING?
.
.
OH, WAIT.
.
.
JUST WHAT I THOUGHT, ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER 100 POINTS UP.
.
.
.
TA TA........DOPES!
I was going to say be prepared for a return of the clowns (oops trolls) based upon a M-O-M # despite the Y-O-Y # still being down with the DOW's late rally adding fuel to the fire, but the trolls have been very silent and hungry lately and started feasting before I could post, demanding real professional position and all, at a distinct disadvantage relative to the faux professional REIC positions (realtwhore, what's the number you need appraiser, mortgage broke(r) you financially, etc.) who are all just sitting on their hands hoping for that next greater fool!!
Ciao Beeatches, enjoy one of the final scintillas of fading hope for your parasitic existance!!
YEAH!!
Good afternoon HPers...
As you prepare for The Crisis Point and load up on guns, ammo, gold and lawyers, don't forget the following:
1) Stored fresh water. Very important in a general collapse to have something to drink. Don't be tempted to go for the salt water if you live near the beach. Salt water will kill you quicker than thirsting to death.
2) Dogs. As in, man's best friend. They are loyal protectors, will help you hunt and are better than any commercial grade alarm system. They can be had at the local pound for $50-$150 a pop, and there are lots of large scary ones to choose from.
Cheers all...
Yes stocks up 150 points.. look at volume, this was no broad based rally.
More hedge funds halting redemptions.
At least I'm reasonably sure mortgage brokers won't agree to write me for $1,000,000+ plus anymore. I didn't take it, I knew this was a bubble when that happened.
That kid who delivered my pizza a few months ago relating the story of him buying a $200,000 house is probably toast by now.
I'm with you Keith, this won't turn out good in the end no matter how hard they try to prop things up.
BTW WTF is PPT ?
Anonymous said...
Pending sales up 5%....oh wait no they are down 8.6% YOY. I had to get to the 7th paragraph of the story before that was mentioned.
Oh and how many of these pending sales will not get qualified for a mortgage? And how many are contingent on another sale?
Shhhh the MSM dare not ask these questions.
August 01, 2007 4:15 PM
--------------------
It's not good to panic the sheeple as they are on their way to the shearing shed... or to the slaughterhouse.
hey what happened with indymac? werent you drooling over their results coming out the other day? what happened with them?
-----------------------------------
down over 20% in the last two days. Been riding this pig down since it was in the 30s, though I am starting to feel like a hog myself. Think I will sell half (will cover my costs and make a small profit) and let the other half ride!
I SAW SOMEONE TALKING ON AN IPHONE SO HOUSING PRICES ARE GOING TO SOAR
DOPES!
2) Dogs. As in, man's best friend. They are loyal protectors, will help you hunt and are better than any commercial grade alarm system. They can be had at the local pound for $50-$150 a pop, and there are lots of large scary ones to choose from.
------------------------------
plus you can eat them if things get really bad.
Tim73,the reason nobody took you seriously is because you also talk about peak oil, the PPT and other tinfoil issues
The PPT a tinfoil issue??? If you google PPT you'll find a lot of mainstream stuff written about it. Also look up the "Greenspan put". Or are you just a troll who tries to discredit people because you don't have any facts to argue with?
bobbyg said...
I hate to be the spoiler here (because I also want the this decade long ponzi scheme to collapse), but all it would take is a 100 bp drop in interest rates by the Fed to get the dying patient back on the dance floor.
Sure the dollar would be trashed but they have the perfect cover -- we need a lower dollar to close the yawning trade gap. A rate cut would save all the idiots with ARMs that are facing resets in the Fall and early '08. And the private equity party would be given a shot in the arm.
Even that idiot Fed Governor Poole said yesterday that any severe spillover from this sub-prime debacle would be assuaged by Fed intervention.
August 01, 2007 6:03 PM
--------------------
Would investors, especially foreign investors, have "diminished appetites" for US financial assets (especially bonds) if they expected the dollar to continue crapping out? A rate cut might hurt the stock market and would almost certainly lay waste to the long end of the bond market, producing HIGHER long term interest rates. Unless of course the Fed plans to just buy long term debt with newly printed dollars. Then the dollar will depreciate even faster, as in $1000 a barrel oil and $8000 for an ounce of gold.
This is the realty about pending home sales. I guess NAR is predicting all cash deals.
Mortgage applications dip to 5-month low
Wednesday August 1, 11:35 am ET
By Lynn Adler
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Demand for mortgage applications slid last week to its weakest level in more than five months, an industry group said on Wednesday, underscoring that the beleaguered U.S. housing sector has yet to bottom.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted mortgage applications index dipped 0.3 percent to 607.1 in the week ended July 27. The index sank for a third straight week, to a level just above this year's low of 606.6 in the February 16 week.
Applications to buy homes are unlikely to jump much any time soon, and loan approval could get even tougher, several analysts said.
Fears triggered by mounting subprime mortgage failures are also spilling into the broader markets, compelling lenders to make it harder for borrowers with better credit to get mortgages approved.
"A further decline in mortgage rates should enable more prospective buyers to get a mortgage, all else equal," according to Nancy Vanden Houten, analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates. "However, if declining rates are a function of credit concerns in the mortgage market, lenders may be pulling back further, offsetting some of the impact of lower rates."
The MBA's purchase index fell 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted 416.6, the lowest since it hit 411.0 in the week of April 20.
Average 30-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, fell 0.09 percentage point in the week to 6.50 percent, helping drive up loan requests for mortgage refinancing last week.
The refinancing index rose 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted 1,724.1, the MBA said.
On a four-week moving average, which smoothes out weekly volatility, the MBA said its overall applications and purchase indexes were down and the refinancing gauge was up.
Long-term borrowing costs have strayed little during the summer after rising from the 6 percent to 6.25 percent range seen the first four months of the year.
Nonetheless, home prices are still falling in many regions, and home builders are less optimistic than any time since early 1991, based on recent industry reports.
Pending sales of existing homes posted the biggest monthly gain in June in more than three years. Sales were still lower than a year ago and it is too soon to say the sector has bottomed, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday.
Defaults, foreclosures and a credit crunch led some lenders to shutter business and others to cease offering certain riskier mortgages.
"There's no question, even in the last 120 days the products are different," said Steve Jacobson, president of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp. in Madison, Wisconsin.
"There's a lot of fear out there, granted," he said. "It's a matter of how we address it as an industry, and it's all back to educating the consumer and counseling them through the process."
Part of the answer may be to advise buyers of different funding options, or even to wait longer.
"People should be challenged to have an investment in a property," Jacobson said. "Maybe the answer is don't buy today, buy a year from now, or 18 months from now. There are too many people that got into properties with no money down."
Anonymous said...
Home sales are up because banks are foreclosing on record number of homes which records as a sale. I wouldn't get too excited about the NAR numbers they have been a little wrong before.
August 01, 2007 9:20 PM
=======
Not quite. Pending sales moron as in MLS pending sales. Has nothing to do with foreclosures. But keep spinning.
Gotta love life on a day like today. All the tinfoil hat gang is busy spinning away a 150 point 30 minute rally and for extra point a true sign the housing crash is nothing more than afigment of the thinfoil hat imagination.
It's Corona time baby.
DOPES
LOSERS
IDIOTS
MORONS
take your pick HPers once again you lose
Anonymous said...
I remember some guy told me in a chat room years ago, that the ratio of the 'something to the something' has always been the same since Jesus's time...ie if home prices fall, interest rates go up, so you still end up paying a fortune. Sorry to sound like such an idiot. Wish I could remember exactly what he said. Guess the fed will just sit it out a few years and once that $350,000 house is now $120,000, interest rates will be at 10-15%. I must sound like such a moron.
August 01, 2007 9:32 PM
---------------------
The thing is, low prices and high mortgage rates reward the fiscally responsible. That's the way things are supposed to work. If you are smart and disciplined enough to SAVE to buy a house, you end up a homeowner. Bring on the 15% mortgage rates.
anon e. moose said...
"Who says the Russians don't have a sense of humour? Do these assholes think the West will simply hand over the North Pole?"
And what can the "West" do, fight for it... with Russia? A bunch of weak, no-natural-resources, debt-is-wealth economies sure can win against one of the coming-back superpowers. And remember, them Russians are friends with them, Chinese, who have the biggest military in the world and have been modernizing it rather swiftly over the past few years.
Brush up on your geopolitics before you post something moronic like that.
August 01, 2007 9:42 PM
----------------
It is twilight in the West.
Look for a 3-4% rally the rest of this week. I bought the dip this morning and glad as f**k I did. I did the same thing in Feb after the last mini-correction while HP types were predicting a 5000 point crash on the dow.
I don't know if it's this PPT you all keep refering to or the tooth fairy. I honestly don't care. One way or another this market is not crashing.
You can fight it or you can profit from it. Your choice.
Anonymous said...
Look for a 3-4% rally the rest of this week. I bought the dip this morning and glad as f**k I did. I did the same thing in Feb after the last mini-correction while HP types were predicting a 5000 point crash on the dow.
I don't know if it's this PPT you all keep refering to or the tooth fairy. I honestly don't care. One way or another this market is not crashing.
You can fight it or you can profit from it. Your choice.
August 01, 2007 11:03 PM
-----------------------
There was also a "rally" on Monday, but then the market dropped on Tuesday, taking the S&P below Friday's close. Perhaps tomorrow will bring another drop that more than cancels out today's (rather suspicious looking) advance. The economic fundamentals don't look all that good, especially not for the US economy.
I want Sharks with Laser beams and the incredibly slow dipping mechanism for all Realtors who "you just don't get it do you?"
Anon 10:46 I guess you must be an FB or you just can't handle the truth.
You must be saying that folks being foreclosed on don't list their property for sale on the MLS. Get a life. Go to any MLS listing and you will see properties marked as either foreclosre or preforeclosure or even tax lien foreclosure.
Folks being foreclosed on want to list there property as many places as possible to find a buyer. The NAR counts all sales including foreclosure sales. If someone buys a foreclosure property it is considered a sale of a property. Here is the link for you so you will understand.
http://www.mls.com/
Anonymous said...
Anon 10:46 I guess you must be an FB or you just can't handle the truth.
You must be saying that folks being foreclosed on don't list their property for sale on the MLS. Get a life. Go to any MLS listing and you will see properties marked as either foreclosre or preforeclosure or even tax lien foreclosure.
Folks being foreclosed on want to list there property as many places as possible to find a buyer. The NAR counts all sales including foreclosure sales. If someone buys a foreclosure property it is considered a sale of a property. Here is the link for you so you will understand.
http://www.mls.com/
August 01, 2007 11:36 PM
==========
What the original post said was that actual foreclosures are the reason pending sales went up. As in banks taking properties back increasing is the reason pending sales are up.
Pending sales do include sales of foreclosed homes ON THE MLS but that is entirely different than the actual foreclosure itself.
Try to keep up.
"Russia claims North Pole with Arctic flag stunt"
Gosh. Most people really don't understand why the Russians are talking about the north pole.
For those who cant remember, this story came up around the time Bush was visiting Albania and suggested that Kosovo would become independent and break from Serbia.
Thus before Putin travelled to the states this North Pole story started to circulate. The point, of course, is suggesting that one state can just redraw the map etc.
>>>so you HPers better factor in at least two more years of this crazy party before those Armageddon wet dreams come to pass.<<<<
drats....
That just means they want to buy a house. Ir does not mean that will be able to buy a house. Again grow a set a stop posting anon.
"Anonymous said...
bwa ha ha ha ha
bwa ha ha ha ha
stocks up big
house pending sales up 5%
renters holding 5% CDs lose again
now back to the shithole 1 bed apartment morons
August 01, 2007 5:50 PM"
Anonymous said...
>>> Gotta love life on a day like today. All the tinfoil hat gang is busy spinning away a 150 point 30 minute rally and for extra point a true sign the housing crash is nothing more than afigment of the thinfoil hat imagination.
It's Corona time baby.
August 01, 2007 10:48 PM <<<
the week ain't over yet buddy....
A rate cut might hurt the stock market and would almost certainly lay waste to the long end of the bond market, producing HIGHER long term interest rates.
That's true, but The Powers That Be care the most about the banking system. They care about that more than my job, your job, your house, your mortgage, or the goverment of the USA itself.
And, 90% of the banking system---is based on this one phenomon: borrow short, lend long.
As the widly misnamed $25 million yacht of that hedge fund trader says, "Positive Carry".
You see, THEY can borrow from the Fed or Fed funds (which is the same as the Fed manipulates that) at rock bottom rates. YOU, cannot. You borrow from THEM at the high rates, and THEY bank the difference.
A 2% Fed Funds rate can do wonders for profitability to make up for tons of foreclosures.
Sure, mortgage specialists will be hurt some as high rates make home sales go down even more, but the most powerful of Wall Street, the diversified Citibanks and the Goldman Sachses, will do great. 2% money is high grade crack to them.
Anonymous said...
"Russia claims North Pole with Arctic flag stunt"
Gosh. Most people really don't understand why the Russians are talking about the north pole.
For those who cant remember, this story came up around the time Bush was visiting Albania and suggested that Kosovo would become independent and break from Serbia.
Thus before Putin travelled to the states this North Pole story started to circulate. The point, of course, is suggesting that one state can just redraw the map etc.
August 02, 2007 12:09 AM
---------------
I heard they are going to contract out to several US developers to put a condo community up there!!
If the Fed cuts rates, gold, silver, and oil will be on a rocket ship to the moon.
I don't see why anyone here would fear ppt. I know its microsoft and i don't like it much either, just use it for whatever presentation you gotta do and forget about it.
To "dopes"
Too bad you don't have a monopoly on that word. No one is trying to be you jack*ff. Besides who would want to take all the flack you get? You're just as stupid as the foil hatters and wrong just as often.
DOLT
To "zoiks":
You forgot, dogs are good eatin' too.......mmmmmm
So the Dow is up 150 points today. Big deal. The housing sector continues to tank. I'm making so much freaking money shorting these undead companies (IMB, CFC, CORS, WM) it's ridiculous. My wife is already picking out a new car.
Anybody have good tips on who to short on the next leg down? I need a new car too.
And I wouldn't get excited about the Fed lowering interest rates. That might halt the broader market decline but it won't help housing. Remember what happened to mortgage rates when the Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5.25%? NOTHING. So I wouldn't expect mortgage interest rates to drop if the Fed drops the funds rate. And that's assuming buyers can even get a mortgage. Liquidity for anything other than prime loans is fast drying up.
decaffeinated said...
Oh by the way, Jack Bouroudjian, a trader at the Chicago Merc, was on CNBC this AM and predicted flat out that the Fed will drop interest rates.
If the Fed does, then a bunch of bankers in Asia are gonna' be mighty pissed. On the other hand, anyone who owns gold or silver will be quite pleased.
*************
FINALLY somebody on this board who understands basic economics! Well done.
Anonymous said...
“This is the realty about pending home sales. I guess NAR is predicting all cash deals.
-Mortgage applications dip to 5-month low-”
Yea, I noticed that too. I guess the MSM and our local trolls can’t seem to grasp the idea
I've taken the same approach to investing for the past 15years. Buy and hold for the long term and diversify. I have been through the ups and downs and yet have managed to end up with close to a $500K portfolio at 38 years old. I didn't panic in 1997, I didn't panic in 2001 and I'm not going to panic now.
All this back and forth hyperventilating because the dow is up or down 100 is ridiculous. In any market, bull or bear, you will have big up days and big down days. Anyone who points to a 1% drop or 1% gain as evidence of a bull or a bear has no idea what he or she is talking about.
"I've taken the same approach to investing for the past 15years. Buy and hold for the long term and diversify. I have been through the ups and downs and yet have managed to end up with close to a $500K portfolio at 38 years old. I didn't panic in 1997, I didn't panic in 2001 and I'm not going to panic now.
"
What a good little boy scout! You probably believe the stuff in that Econ 101 textbook and think we have free and efficient markets. The reality is you get the crumbs that fall off the table. Your "$500K" portfolio is what guys like Rubin, Paulson, and Simons spend on a Spring vacation.
These guys love in-duh-vidual investors because they create enough noise in the markets to hide what's really going on. Take a look at the DTCC, its ties to the Fed, their settlement rules, and for fun Google "naked shorts". Then come back and tell us how the little guy stands as equal to the money center banks and hedge funds in these wonderful markets.
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