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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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38 comments:
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I rent a house for $1800 a month. Awesome house, I could say it is my dream house actually and if the landlord agrees, I can see myself here for many many years to come.
Neighbor down the road put his up for sale at $690K. These are older homes and so they are not your cookie cutter subdivision homes that look 100% the same. But approximately same size, same number of bedrooms, same lot size, etc.
At 0% down and 6.5%, that $690K would cost me $4400 a month. Property tax would be offset by the tax deduction so I'll leave that out.
I've been a regular on HP. I know the reasons why buying is a bad idea right now and all that. But it really just hit me when comparing an apples to apples choice like this.
It literally comes down to this: do I want to pay and extra $2600 a month simply for the privilege of "owning" more or less the same house that I am renting?
How can anyone with an IQ over 80 look at this proposition and say OK, where do I sign up for the mortgage?
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Thing about popcorn...it is cheap and light weight...easy to store in a oh........a bunker...and everyone likes it.
Make enough to share the zombies are gonna be hungry.
There are 1100 houses in foreclosure in the small town (50,000 people) where I live and another 1500 in pre foreclosure.
I was talking to a man yesterday and asked him if he owned a house. He said, yes, for now, but he planned on "giving it back to the bank" because he is going back to Mexico.
Think this might be a trend?
oh come on, at least give Neil some credit for that on!
I have Jiffy Pop, microwave and gourmet so far, but I'm still in the market. LOL! Buy at least a couple of cases folks because this is gonna be good.
Keith, you don't happen to know if KRAMERICA makes popcorn do you? If he doesn't manufacture, he may go direct marketing like selling on the street for instance.
GOP GREEDY OLD PARTY
THIS MAY HAVE BEEN ALREADY PUBLISHED ON HP BUT SINCE I NEVER SAW IT, PLEASE VIEW THIS HYSTERICALLY FUNNY DAILY SHOW CLIP. ESPECIALLY LOVE THE PART ABOUT "GHETTO JUDO". http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/?ml_video=90948
hey dopes, i have a couple of condo's down in miami i can sell you at a bargain. heck man, you can buy them with all the money you are going to make off of this bull market...
idiot...
Even better than butter, have S&P Sept futures short!
connect the dots...
I was in Seattle on business this week. My host who works for a computer firm said “prices are still going up here”. The front page of the Seattle paper said the market was in trouble and it would get worse. Oh, and my business is buying discounted chattel for quick resale.
My trip was successful.
Hey Keith. Put up that sine wave of housing sentiment. I think we are at fear for sure but not panic yet. Only aout 20% of the sellers in my area have dropped their prices. We aren't panicking yet. There is still too "Let's wait for next month and see what happens."
The real question I ask myself this morning is: recession or depression. . .I lean towards a bad recession (similar to 1980 with 10% unemployment). . .also, will there be anything left of the dollar after this all shakes out. . .I am a contrarian on the Fed lowering rates - at this point a 1% rate would be "pushing on a string" because mortgage companies are not going to start writing stated-income loans, sub-prime, etc. again. . .plus lower rates would kill the dollar and oil prices would go up for USA citizens. . .I say keep the 5.25% and screw the housing market - we need a 20% housing price cut across in the USA to make housing affordable for Joe-sixpack again.
---------------------------------------Glad you mention the POPCORN Kieth.
Just so happens that I had run out of Popcorn last night while the story was getting good.AH Crap!
So I made do with a little MoonShine,ana Pakka Cigs.
OhhhhhhEEEEYYeaaahh.
A few more thoughts on a Saturday morning - as I mentioned here a day ago - 40% of sales in SD County are now falling out of escrow (according to a local realtor). . this was Before the demise of a number of lenders this week. . .
Almost all lenders (today Wachovia) are pulling alt-A - (subprime is history) and almost all lenders have eliminated 100% financing - thus the pool of potential buyers has been reduce to "cash" buyers and those who can put down 20% with sterling credit. . .these people represent less than 20% of the total market (and that is a high estimate). . .so where are the buyers going to come from?? Remember - 20% down on the average 500K house here in SD/Orange County is 100K - who has that much these days??? We have a long long way to go. . .
My popcorn is in the form of cash. I do not own a single stock, never have. My 5.5% has been going La la la all the way past 7 figures. Over and Over and Over again.
That monkey on 20/20 that used to outpick the stock experts...for like 17 years in a row pretty much summed up the stock market to me.
A blind squirrel finds the occasional nut while hunting. The Myopic squirrel finds a few more while hunting. My squirrel lives in a nut [those of you who can't work a parable please know I mean money] tree and doesn't hunt at all.
So you averaged 7% in stocks or realty or whatever, good for you. I bear you no ill will. But in the short term, that's 20k yearly on $1,000,000. Got a mill in the bank? No? THEN GET A BETTER JOB AND QUIT WASTING TIME ON THE STOCK MARKET. MAKE THE 20K IN WAGES AND PUT IT IN 5.5% CD'S.
I really didn't think things could deteriorate this fast.It's a bad situation for alot Americans.But unlike the Hedgies,Builders,and Lenders......an HPer can always borrow some popcorn from his neighbor.Now that's some good credit.
Do I have popcorn? I can't even move here I have so much popcorn.
More detail about this - it's spreading like a fungus!
http://tinyurl.com/3xu4bm
**************************
......and I cut a hole in the bottom of the tub!
I don't have popcorn because the joos at the Fed and their fiat money system made the dollar worthless and now the average American cannot afford popcorn.
I can buy all of my neighbors' McMansions for pennies on the dollar (actually some of them are paying me so I will take it off their hands) but the hyper-inflation we've been experiencing has made corn too expensive.
Vote for Ron Paul. He will get rid of the Fed and bring us back to the gold standard. Only then will we be able to afford popcorn. And BTW did I mention that when Ron Paul is elected everyone gets a free pink poney?
Yahoo is still running articles on flippers what a bunch of yahooooosssss!
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/best_places_to_flip_a_home.html
I'm going to take a contrarian view and say that the foreclosures will be good for the economy. Instead of spending most of their income on paying the mortgage, people will have excess income to spend on other products and services. Perhaps there will be less debt. If a family spends $1200/mo to rent instead of $2500/mo to get pwned by the banks, shouldn't that help the overall economy? In the end, we all get lower housing prices as the cherry on top.
What is the best, safest, way to buy foreign currency?
2 experiences today:
1. Went to Home Depot this morning to buy some yard supplies. I rent but my landlord agreed to knock $125 off a month if I take care of the lawn which sounded like a better deal in March than in August and 95 degrees, but I digress.
10:30 on a Saturday and the parking lot was maybe 1/3 full. Don't think I have ever seen a Home Depot that empty on a Saturday. I know it's summer, people are on vacation, but shit, the place was dead.
And this is in suburban Atlanta, where there is no bubble, never was a bubble and of course means that housing will be up 100% next year if you listen to the "experts". Home Depot of course is also HQed in Atlanta and they are going to be laying people off in no time at this rate.
2. I have owned a Capital One credit card for about 2 years. I charge anywhere from $2K to $4K a month. Always pay full balance on time, never had a late payment. Get a letter today from Capital One saying my late payment fee is going from $15 to $45. I take this as a sign of growing desperation from Capital One as more and more people default on their loans, they need to make it up in fees.
But gee wiz what a way to say Thank You for my business as someone who has never been even a day late. Treat me like I am some deadbeat asshole. Well fuck you Capital One, this card is never to be used again. Although I will not cancel it so that they continue spending money on sending me monthly statements for $0 balance month after month.
I am buttering up the popcorn, an extra large with double butter. This show is going to be something else.
Anyone still think that one bedroom shack in SoCal gangland is worth $500,000?
One comment: Look at the abx.he on Markit. Every issue is at the floor. AAA's going off under 90 cetavoes on the dollar; triple BBB going off at 35 cents on the dollar, and everyday, they mark lower. And the credit spreads...OMG.
Dry Ramen is my snack of choice when viewing financial collapse.
I was on a chartered bus going from East Hampton to a wedding on Westhampton Beach when I realized I was sitting right near a mortgage broker. Still in his work clothes, he was exclaiming to all that the mortgage industry has been reset 10 years in terms of product offerings; 40% of the loans available to brokers have been pulled.
He explained that his brokerage works with 50 different lenders. AHM was the only lender that imploded, but then the rest of them got scared and completely yanked all of the Alt-A products and Alt-A jumbos. These are the products for people with 620-700 FICO scores, OR people with higher scores who want to do a LTV higher than 80%. The jumbo is the same, but obviously for a lot more money (up to $1M). Loans used to be rated A, B, or C for credit worthiness. Alt-A was created just this decade, and he suggested it could be a month, a year, five years, or more before those products are offered again. He hears up the grapevine that, simply, no one on Wall Street is buying a mortgage backed security with Alt-A in it.
It was so bad this week that people got written approval for loans, went to the closing, signed all of the papers, and then two days later the bank couldn't service the loan. They sold the mortgages before they had a buyer for the mortgage backed security. He estimated $900M in approved and closed mortgages were rejected because the banks simply didn't have the money after they made the commitment to fund! Of course, somewhere in the contracts they think they've allowed themselves to do this. The lenders and investment banks have been using THEIR OWN CASH TO FUND THE LOANS HOPING SOMEONE WOULD BUY THE SECURITIES EVENTUALLY. And late this week they pulled the plug - no more.
If this story is universally true, meaning if all other brokers can't get these products on the secondary market, this officially stops anyone new without $100,000 liquid (20% down in most cities) from getting on the housing ladder or into the ponzi scheme. And when the fools can't get in, the house of cards falls. I think sales of existing homes would fall 50% in one month YOY. The problem for existing home owners is that while they have their equity, they have an illiquid asset that no one can afford.
Disclosure: I own SFK Proshares UltraShort DowJones Financial Sector.
>>>> Mark in San Diego said...
The real question I ask myself this morning is: recession or depression. . .I lean towards a bad recession (similar to 1980 with 10% unemployment). . .also, will there be anything left of the dollar after this all shakes out. . .I am a contrarian on the Fed lowering rates - at this point a 1% rate would be "pushing on a string" because mortgage companies are not going to start writing stated-income loans, sub-prime, etc. again. . .plus lower rates would kill the dollar and oil prices would go up for USA citizens. . .I say keep the 5.25% and screw the housing market - we need a 20% housing price cut across in the USA to make housing affordable for Joe-sixpack again. <<<
yes but you are leaving out one minor detail in all of this. what about the wild card that has yet to be played? what about the attack on iran, the blocking of the straits and government sponsored terror in this country that lets them install martial law here? what about that scenerio? do such things tend to distort your scenerio? they can and they will. people, do not leave out the wild card....the wild card is out there. the wild card is waiting to be played. and it will be played, make no mistake about it. and then? who knows.....
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I rent a house for $1800 a month. Awesome house, I could say it is my dream house actually and if the landlord agrees, I can see myself here for many many years to come.
Neighbor down the road put his up for sale at $690K. These are older homes and so they are not your cookie cutter subdivision homes that look 100% the same. But approximately same size, same number of bedrooms, same lot size, etc.
At 0% down and 6.5%, that $690K would cost me $4400 a month. Property tax would be offset by the tax deduction so I'll leave that out.
I've been a regular on HP. I know the reasons why buying is a bad idea right now and all that. But it really just hit me when comparing an apples to apples choice like this.
It literally comes down to this: do I want to pay and extra $2600 a month simply for the privilege of "owning" more or less the same house that I am renting?
How can anyone with an IQ over 80 look at this proposition and say OK, where do I sign up for the mortgage?
August 04, 2007 1:35 PM <<<
silly me, but why are you renting a house that cost that much a month? what purpose is there in this? isn't it time to downsize and conserve? just a thought....
mark to myth said...
One comment: Look at the abx.he on Markit. Every issue is at the floor. AAA's going off under 90 cetavoes on the dollar; triple BBB going off at 35 cents on the dollar, and everyday, they mark lower. And the credit spreads...OMG.
August 04, 2007 8:37 PM <<<
maybe big mouth cramer is right. we are at armageddon....
More popcorn - read mortgage broker forums:
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/1/2.htm
The thread titles are hilarious!
"Are we walking dinosoars?"
"I quit residential lending"
"How to save the mortgage industry"
The answers are even worse. Their main suggestion is to push the conforming loan limit from $417k to $525k! Wow.
It's funny how these optimists 100% across the board don't think the fed will lower rates.
Talk Radio KOGO in SD - in Housing Panic mode - jeeze. . .was listening to the 11 a.m. moneytalk, and the host sounded like Jim Cramer . . .said "housing is falling off a cliff" and "housing will fall 20,30 or 40% in the next two years." Only a year ago, these Saturday talk shows were saying "housing slowdown. . .now is the best time to buy, etc." And the sponsors were mortgage companies. . .now the sponsors are carpet cleaning companies, and public service announcements. . . how things have changed - PANIC has set in around San Diego, and "foreclosure" signs are all over town.
Anon 9:57 is right about the wild card, and that's not even the half of it.
Musharraf is under covert attack by the Cheneyacs after not agreeing to allow the US to use Pakistan as an Iran attack staging ground; the Red Mosque incident is only the beginning of his troubles.
Barracks Obomber's talk about attacking Pakistan meshes with William the Bloody Kristol's opinion. Russia is starting to make a LOT of noise, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is no joke.
There could also be real excitement coming between Israel and Syria, among other things.
And g-d help us if there's another attack in the US. I think the coup d'etat will then be complete.
I am not looking forward to the next 2 to 5 years.
Anybody been looking at what has gone on with Floating Rate Fixed Income mutual funds the last couple weeks? Check out the charts for PFL, XOSAX, HFLAX, for example. Their nice yearly yields...poof....gone. I guess it's all contained to subprime, right?
Subprime lender First NLC lays off 645 employees
First NLC Financial Services LLC, a subprime mortgage lender being sold by Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc (FBR.N: Quote, Profile , Research), said on Friday it has laid off nearly half of its 1,350 employees as it combats a slumping housing market.
Employees learned of the layoffs on Wednesday, according to Andrew Henschel, First NLC's vice president of corporate governance. About 645 employees are being let go, including more than one-third of those at its Boca Raton, Florida headquarters.
"We have had to reduce staff to compete more effectively," Henschel said in an interview. "Market conditions and the subprime landscape have changed dramatically. We were saddened to let valued employees go, but the landscape has changed."
The layoffs were announced less than a week after FBR said it would sell an 80 percent stake in First NLC to private equity firm Sun Capital Partners Inc. First NLC is being recapitalized, with Sun Capital investing $60 million and FBR investing $15 million.
Subprime lenders make loans to people with weaker credit histories. Many have struggled with rising defaults, higher borrowing costs, stagnating home prices and an unwillingness of investors to buy riskier loans on the secondary market.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/
news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=
tnBusinessNews&storyID=
2007-08-03T202931Z_01_N03357120_
RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-SUBPRIME-
MORTGAGES-FIRSTNLC-LAYOFFS-DC.XML
westwest88:
That link is awesome! I now have it bookmarked.
everyone, here is a fragment from the first post I went to:
OK... First let me say this, I have no issue with appraiser's charging $350 to $450 for an appraisal. But I do have an issue with the appraiser when he/she charges my customer who is on a fixed income, living alone and disabled a $350 fee and then not even come close to the,,, Yes "ESTIMATED VALUE" that I came to him with. I mean we are talkin about a $27,000 difference in the Value that I was under the impression was gonna be. Obviously I was way off. And that's fine, I have no issues with that at all. I am by no means an appraiser, home inspector, nothing to do with anything like that. BUT,,, When I tell the appraiser "I need this value to be XXX amount to make this loan work to my clients benefit.
silly me, but why are you renting a house that cost that much a month? what purpose is there in this? isn't it time to downsize and conserve? just a thought....
August 04, 2007 9:59 PM
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Um because I like living in a nice house. Because I loathe the thought of living in an apartment. Because I like having over an acre of land. Because I like having a 30 yard pool. Because $1800 a month represents less than 20% of my income.
Conserve what may I ask? I didn't say how big the house was. It's only 2500 sq ft and I do not consider that a big home by any means.
And finally because it is none of you fucking business how I live my life.
OK?
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