August 24, 2007

Ask yourselves America why the MSM would report new home sales falling 10% and prices falling as "Home Sales Up!"


Ya wonder if the MSM misses the REIC ads. Or if they're really that dumb.

Or both.

Chart courtesy of Doom. Spin courtesy of the MSM.

Home Sales Rise
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new homes perked up, while factory orders took off in July, raising hopes that the economy can safely weather financial turmoil that has shaken Wall Street.

63 comments:

Mark in San Diego said...

Why you ask?? Because MSM reporters are in panic that their little dream home in Nassau County just lost 10% in value in one week. . .there is NOTHING the Fed or anyone else can do to stop this train wreck. . .1% interest rates (means 4% prime on ARMS) would not help people who make 50K and bought a 600K home. . .

I PREDICT - Bernake is more like Volker than Greenspan, and will hold rates. . .he is NOT going to bail out Countrywide.

Anonymous said...

I'm calling the next bubble right here, right now.

It's the "Emerging Markets" bubble. You know, BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India, China.

It's what CNBC hypes every day. That miracle "Global Economy". ROW - rest of world crap.

This "theme" has been so over played, so over developed, it has to end in a crash.

Keith, I'll go 50/50 in with you on the next blog site... BRIC-PANIC.COM

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA HA HA

BWA HA HA HA HA

BWA HA HA HA HA

It is so over losers. Admit it, you will never own a home.

Sales up and you morons are talking about crashes.

What dopes.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

MSM has a vested interest to
still cheerlead residential
housing.

As we approach 2008, it will get
very interesting to see what more
bullox this "talking head" spews
out to the public.

rcochran said...

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”
Joseph Goebbels, Third Reich Propaganda Minister

The Thinker said...

I, being in the Northeast where home prices are way out of control, love the part where it says, "Sales, however, tumbled 24.3 percent in the Northeast."

I also like the part where it says year-over-year sales are down 10%.

Obviously its year-over-year statistics that matter most, however, I think the MSM's point is that housing was better than expected, and this in and of its self is a positive, a positive that I myself have a bit of trouble explaining.

Anonymous said...

I am a RealtorWhore in Southwest Bubble Florida and new home and condo sales here are strong. The reason is because Centex, Lennar, Beazer, Pulte, etc. have drastically reduced their prices on many inventory units and they are selling. 30% to 50% off. Look for July to be EVEN STRONGER!!

Anonymous said...

Because they're reporting on the margin. That sales are down year over year is not news, the new month relative to the prior is the news. If the Fed raises rates 25 basis points, the headline shouldn't read "Rates down 2% over one year ago" or something to that effect, it should read, "Rates up 25 bps".
Investors react on the margin, the 10% drop has already been reported over time by the MSM and incorporated into the public consciousness.

anonymous wimp said...

I'm glad that they're reporting the sales and prices as up this month.

When the August data comes out, it'll be all the more fuel for the fire. Better to show that massive drop from a higher high.

On the other hand of course, they'll revise July down next month, so that the drop off doesn't seem so extreme.

Anonymous said...

on the back of a 30% decline in july 2006, the 2-year decline is 38%.

ain't your bitch said...

What a bunch of bullshit as usual.Here at hp we demand the truth.

Wait till existing numbers come out and fall off a cliff an well see how rosy things are.\

Did anyone catch rick santelli with the housing bubble tshirt in the pits this morning?I immediately thought of this blog.Keith did you have anything to do with that.It is the same logo as you have used on your site, mr housing bubble.

Yogsoggoth said...

I was wondering the same thing. How stupid are the folks working for the MSM and on Wall Street. Mortgage companies are closing, Realtors are being laid off, banks are borrowing billions to stay afloat and yet some small up-tick in housing numbers (sure to be revised downwards later) sends the market higher. Reality has truly left the room

other said...

up compared to what? the biggest leg down last year. July 06 was so bad that even a not so bad july 07 look "up", at least to MSM fools

Anonymous said...

The new mortgage rules didn't hit till the first weeks of August. lol In July you still could get a zero down liar loan at the drop of a hat. (My brother got one in July).

Next month's new homes report will be in the toilet.

gardener said...

Because sales are up? In our area the delta between asking prices and sales prices is around -10%, and most houses sell in 3-4 months. High end homes (over $2M) are moving slowly, but everything else seems to be selling again after a noticeable slowdown this Spring.

The wife and I were out this morning and drove by several new developments breaking ground for "patio" homes.

Sorry Keith, no doom and gloom here.

marinite2 said...

You would think someone with Twist's smarts and energy level that she would get the labels on the axes right. But yeah, it is amazing how the MSM can spin and how (wilfully) dumb Wall Street can be.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

How can they sell all their shit to the sheeple if the market isn't going up, and the govt. numbers aren't rigged on employment, GDP, Durable Goods and other the other GOLDILOCK numbers? Hopefully the American people learned something since the last time the pump and dumpers rigged the market and then proceeded to vaporize $5 Trillon Dollars.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

While the market has a party, the dollar is getting ass whipped once again. A retest of 80 is coming, and I think this time we break down because the smart money sees that the FED is in the process of monetizing the debt. Had they have let the chips fall where they may, we would still be looking at a strengthening dollar, but as soon as they started doing Repos like crazy on shit for paper, the fat lady sang.

Anonymous said...

I think it may well be because a lot of these reporters are vested in the real-estate boom, at least in relation to their own homes, they really don't want prices to crash, ethics be damned. It is obvious to anyone that the YOY figure is the one that really matters, if you look at home sales through the year July always sells more then June, so you could have this headline even in the worst market ever. I guess winter, when home sales slow down normally they find it hard to spin it this way. I wish they would just report the truth and let this crash proceed as fast as possible so we can get back to normal ASAP.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Another interesting point about the sales figure, which isn't really a sales figure since %37 of those so-called sales will be cancelled before closing, is that new houses were selling at an annual rate of 870,000. last month, new home starts were going at an annual rate of 1,380,000 starts. Does anybody else see a problem here? They're building at an annual rate of 1,380,000 and selling at an annual rate of 870,000. They're going to build 510,000 more houses then they can sell. Amazing how the MSM overlooks these little details.

borkafatty said...

I say bull shit!!

Anonymous said...

Sales of new homes perked? WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!111!!!!1!!111!11!

Time to go out and buy ten houses on no money down teaser mortgages! I'm going to be rich, RICH!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!1!!!!!!1111!!!

Anonymous said...

The only folks buying these new home sale numbers are the stock gurus doing the pump and dump thing. Watch the stock market when the reality hits. Most of the mortgage cancellations for July came in August when rates and new lending rules started.

Does anyone think the NAR would caution folks about this? No way!!! That is how corrupt these folks really are! They don't care about the American homeowner! They only care about their corrupt industry!

Anyone who is now up-side-down on their mortgage should walk away as fast as possible. You will be better off buying in 3 to 4 years when prices are at rock bottom. You will then be able to get a loan you will be able to pay off and a property that will have real value, not these pie in the sky values.

Anonymous said...

.
.
.
what's that I hear? dow up 145 today

up 700 since last Thursday's lows

up 8% so far this year

keep investing in those CDs boneheads

oh and as an added bonus home sales were up as were durable goods. durable goods which are things like stoves, fridges, TVs....you know things people buy when they BUY A HOUSE.

Yeah but nobody is buying homes anymore and nobody is spending money anymore. Recession and depression is on the way.

Sure thing renters, sure thing.

Anonymous said...

"Due to massive incentives, which mask the drop in median/average new home sale price, the YOY decline in home sales rate/volume slightly decelerated when compared to June's steep YOY drop"

GT said...

well last july was the worst so this one is better, i guess that is their reasoning? who cares, they just put lipstick on the pig.

Anonymous said...

US credit turmoil hits London property
By Jim Pickard and Chris Giles in London

Published: August 24 2007 21:53 | Last updated: August 24 2007 21:53

Fears are growing that the fallout from the US subprime mortgage meltdown will hit house prices in central London, one of the world’s hottest high-end property markets.

Prices for “prime” homes in the most expensive streets of the capital have risen about 50 per cent in the past two years as a financial services boom has enriched bankers and other professionals in the City of London.

But the global market turmoil unleashed by the US subprime collapse is threatening activity levels at banks in the City, and London property agents are warning that high-end residential prices could suffer as result.

pwnd

Anonymous said...

ESPECIALLY given their slant toward,"If it bleeds, it leads!"
LOTTA money in that RE advertising...

the other trader said...

a friend told me today that home sales rose.
I was away from the desk today, so I did not hear the numbers. I asked her if it was year over year or from last month, she did not know. I told her how they massage the number and she just laughed at me.
I just saw the numbers.
I live in the Northeast, so even OUR numbers were HORRIBLE (yearly and monthly!!!).
Shows us what "the spin" can accomplish.
According to her, the bottom was in.

Wonder where she gets her news.
Can anyone guess???

ha, ha.


Looks like a bust to me...


http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/homebuildersconstruction/10376242.html

Anonymous said...

remember, these numbers indicate CONTRACTS, and not closings. So a lot of these numbers can disappear, or be manipulated.

Remember also that since ALOT of people are being turned away at closing, todays buyers are applying at 5 or 6 different banks, just in case one pulls the money out between approval and closing, like has been happening.
So applications are now a worthless barometer too.
Seems we have ALOT of worthless indicators now a days.

other trader, you are right,
spin, spin, spin.

Spin Doc said...

Looks like the same old thing -- YOY vs. MOM. Pick your statistics and spin baby spin.

Anonymous said...

This absolutely boggles my mind! I am just really wondering how they came across their statistics. It doesn't jive at all with what we are all experiencing in the real world.

BlueEventHorizon said...

Keith,

Can you give us some "color" (how I hate that phrase) on the UK market?

I have friends who own in London (one has a house overlooking Regents Park). I also have a buddy who owns about 10 rental properties in SE, and has been complaining that he hasn't seen a place worth buying in 3 years 'cos yields are too low (he has sold a few, though).

my left foot said...

This is an online petition to stop the bailout of Wall Street, lenders, gamblers, speculators, liars, realtors, mortgage brokers, homebuilders and other criminals that aided and abetted in the greatest ponzi scheme in the history of mankind. We need 5 million signatures before sending it to the bootlicks in Congress. Get every responsible person you know to sign this.

http://tinyurl.com/ywkfvj

Anonymous said...

---
---
---
from cnn:

“Builders, worried about a big glut of unsold homes on the market, cut price. The average price of a new home sold in the period fell to $300,400, down 3.4 percent from a year ago.”

WOW!! 3.4% drop in prices. After prices rose 100% 2000 to 2006. My goodness what a crash. Run for the hills.

Shakster said...

I noticed that too.Been going on since Adam and Eve though.They can also change the rules mid stream ,enforce the rules selectively against the sheep,or competing business,and others.Be careful with your short positions,these guys run a rigged casino,and can squeeze longs ,and shorts no matter the trend.Limit your activities in the Stock markets,or bonds to gambling fun,and hide the lion's share of your hard work in assets,gold ,silver,and some cash.

Anonymous said...

So a lot of you apparently have sold your houses at the top of the bubble (according to the debt poll). Why do you care if the housing market goes to hell? You already cashed out and, truthfully, you participated in and are one of the causes of it going to hell.

Why didn't you sell your house for less to keep prices down?

I can appreciate the Schadenfreude aspect of it, but really you guys mostly come off as hypocrite and/or liars.

Cheers!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
.
.
.
what's that I hear? dow up 145 today

up 700 since last Thursday's lows

up 8% so far this year

keep investing in those CDs boneheads

oh and as an added bonus home sales were up as were durable goods. durable goods which are things like stoves, fridges, TVs....you know things people buy when they BUY A HOUSE.

Yeah but nobody is buying homes anymore and nobody is spending money anymore. Recession and depression is on the way.

Sure thing renters, sure thing.

August 24, 2007 9:58 PM
----------------
Histroy has shown that organized support has never been successful in the long term when confronted with the overwhelming drive of market forces put into place logn ago. The market trend will overwhelm the hasty financial levee currently being fashioned in the form of "liquidity injections" "discount rate" reductions and the relaxing of lending rules b/t brokerage and depository branches of financial houses (The last one is a biggy and opens the US depository banking system up to a vulnerability closed off from the bank runs of the depression era.)

Good luck dumb@$$ your going to need it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
BWA HA HA HA HA

BWA HA HA HA HA

BWA HA HA HA HA

It is so over losers. Admit it, you will never own a home.

Sales up and you morons are talking about crashes.

What dopes.

August 24, 2007 6:22 PM
--------------
New home sales are down 10% YOY dumb@$$

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
---
---
---
from cnn:

“Builders, worried about a big glut of unsold homes on the market, cut price. The average price of a new home sold in the period fell to $300,400, down 3.4 percent from a year ago.”

WOW!! 3.4% drop in prices. After prices rose 100% 2000 to 2006. My goodness what a crash. Run for the hills.

August 25, 2007 12:40 AM
---------------
Thats just the "price term" comparison and is not including the 10-20% value to price of the incentives being tossed in. So the true price drop is double digit east of the decimal point and in the order of 15-25% dumb@$$

Paul E. Math said...

Love it. I'm glad to see so many people thought the exact same thing I did, which was: I can't wait to see those August numbers.

As someone else said, and I have come to believe myself, this was a credit bubble manifesting itself as a housing bubble. Now that credit markets are in a death-spiral, there is no more mortgage money.

When the August numbers come out, Keith will finally get his 'fear' stage.

CNK said...

These numbers are irrelevant. Even the sales of existing homes data that is soon forthcoming will be irrelevant. I say irrelevant because the sales numbers are too premature to show the effects of the recent contraction of credit.

July sales involve borrowers that were pre-approved a month or two earlier. Many of these borrowers already submitted their loans to underwriting back in June and May. Often, it takes a month to a month and a half to get final loan approval.

What has happened since July and June? Lenders have restricted their guidelines tremendously (I know, I'm a loan officer) You can't submit at least half of the loans you used to - the lenders are no longer accepting many loan products that they had available just a month ago.

So when will the REAL sales figures come in? Look out for September - the drop will be catastrophic. That's when the sales results will be impacted by the tightening lending guidelines.

I can't believe Wall Street and the MSM cheered these numbers. Don't they know that the sales in July were not affected as much by the credit crunch. The sales cycle for real estate is at least 30-45 days.

September and October's numbers will show the effects of the credit crunch that began in August.

Anonymous said...

We've hit bottom ! OK I'll grab my 10 ft ladder.....but it's a 20 ft hole. Looks good but it won't get you out.

Anonymous said...

Someone please explain this to me:

It used to be when you looked at the multiple listings that if a house was described as "gorgeous" or "stunning", it was a truly a spectacular house. I have noticed for the last few years that every single cookie-cutter, vinyl-sided house is decribed this way. Not that I am knocking these homes--but please, "stunning" to describe a house that looks like every other house?? And what about the "gleaming" hardwood floors? Honetly, do they coach them on how to describe homes in the listings and tell them what words to use?

bubbleyum said...

hopefully this positive spin will dampen calls for sheeple bailouts.

meanwhile the fed is already busy bailing out wall st by making our dollars worth less and waiving regulations for "special" banks. guess their huge christmas bonuses weren't enough. why do you guys even invest in the rigged market that transfers your wealth to these scum?

"If the Federal Reserve is waiving a fundamental principle in banking regulation, the credit crunch must still be sapping the strength of America's biggest banks."
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/24/magazines/fortune/eavis_citigroup.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007082417

"Wall Street loves to talk about letting financial markets weed out the weak. But when the Street itself gets in trouble, it sticks out its little tin cup, asking for help. And gets it."
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/22/magazines/fortune/sloan_enablers.fortune/

Anonymous said...

I bought a house to live in back in 2000. I sold it for 50% profit in 2006 due to a divorce. I looked at the market at the time and decided it was to bubbly for my tastes. I now rent an equivalent McMansion for half my old payment. I didn't buy in 2000 for profit I bought a home what a novel concept.

yoski said...

New home sales strong in Miami.
In January I looked at a new development here in Miami "Coconut Cay" by D.R. Horton. The price for the "Golden Sands" model was $477K. Nice 2600sqft 2-story with 2 car garage, huge open to below area and above average equipment. I went back in April and they were offering a $50K incentive. Went back 2 weeks ago and they were offering a $100K incentive. So that's $377K for a fairly nice home. Keep in mind that homes in Florida are very expensive to build, concrete block and plenty of rebar 'cos of the hurricane codes. Really, that's not a bad price for what you're getting.
Funny thing is that most delusional sellers are still asking in the $250 - $400K range for a 1930's 1300sqft piece of crap that hasn't been update since the Nixon administration. I can see that those new homes are selling like hotcake. The remainder of the market is completely dead...go figure.
Brand new, nice 2600sqft home or crappy old 1300 sqft home for the same price. Which one would you buy? Hmmm...let's see...
I am sure that will work wonders for the comps/appraisals of the old crappy homes. For those that never been in Miami, most old homes here are pretty substandard/slummy accomodations. Once in a while you have a nice Spanish style or Art Decco gem but they are far and few between. Most old homes are slums.

brewcrew said...

To My Left Foot...

A petition will not stop our corrupt government from bailing out the crooks and liars. A well-armed citizenry will.

Oh, and no pun intended on the ARM thing...

Anonymous said...

Maybe we should take our CFC PUT money and buy before the prices fall further and we are to embarrassed to make an offer.

Anonymous said...

For all you Democrat dopes who want a bailout of FB's and lenders, it will only keep the ponzi scheme going for a bit longer and make the explosion even worse. Get your heads out of your rear ends. Let the FB's go back to renting so home prices can go back to normal. Stop telling Hitlary Clinton to bail out your dopey FB's subprime buddies.

Lost Cause said...

The same media which literally got into bed with the military industrial complex, and daily reports falsehoods regading an entire nation which we are killing at the moment, and you wonder why they would spin this? They have not reported on the serious decline of prestige and financial leadership in the past 7 years either. People will be shocked and surprised when the truth can no longer be hidden.

Kenduffelsniffenspotzen said...

Ask yourselves America why the MSM would report new home sales falling 10% and prices falling as "Home Sales Up!"
==================================
Because a few corporations own all the MSM, and they do what their owner tells them too.

Anonymous said...

The ONLY reason for the sales being up is that PRICES ARE DOWN!
And prices will KEEP COMMING DOWN, so expect more sales...

More sheeple catching FALLING KNIVES...

snicker

Anonymous said...

"Wonder where she gets her news.
Can anyone guess???
"

From Suzanne ?

snicker

Anonymous said...

There's a simple medical explanation for the cognitive problems of MSM "professionals". It's similiar to the problems experienced by those in the worlds oldest profession. You see, in the long run venereal diseases will, among other things, destroy the ability to discern reality. All who stay in the MSM are eventually ruined by this affliction hence the disconnect you are seeing now. I would suggest wearing a spacesuit when watching tv or reading any of the rags, you never know what you might catch.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Please post this. Thank you.

http://www.libertypost.org/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=198153

edd said...

Lost another home to Ditech.

Anonymous said...

Another reason why the latest new home sales numbers don't make sense.
From the Wall Street Journal

DEFAULT LINES
Condo Troubles
Further Squeeze
Property Lenders
Full Force of Glut Is Felt
As Buyers Back Out;
'More of the Iceberg'
By ALEX FRANGOS
August 25, 2007

For the nation's real-estate lenders, the other shoe may be about to drop: condominiums.

Already plagued by rising home-loan defaults and foreclosures among overstretched consumers, major markets across the country -- including parts of Florida, California and Washington, D.C. -- are seeing rising foreclosures and bankruptcies of entire condo projects.

Anonymous said...

CountryNarrow...

Anonymous said...

Lost Brain,

Who is this "we" that is killing an entire nation? If "we" really wanted to wipe out Iraq, it would have been done back in 2003 with B-52's and not troops on the ground.

Try finding your little brain before posting more stupidity

Anonymous said...

Lost Brain,

Who is this "we" that is killing an entire nation? If "we" really wanted to wipe out Iraq, it would have been done back in 2003 with B-52's and not troops on the ground.

Try finding your little brain before posting more stupidity

August 25, 2007 7:07 AM

Actually you make a goodpoint, but you also miss the real intent of the Iraq war-- "it's intended to destroy the United States".

Anonymous said...

They have lied about everything for the past 100 yrs, this is nothing new.

webcosmo said...

This whole things just seems to be a drama. Lets wait and see how far this can drag down the economy.