July 06, 2007

What does a housing crash look like? Just check out Phoenix Arizona

Here's Phoenix unwanted homes for sale inventory on the MLS, and as you can see minuscule sales and growing foreclosures, courtesy of bubbletracking.

Remember this doesn't include the thousands and thousands and thousands of new homes builders can't move, the thousands and thousands of FSBO's, and the thousands that Desperate Homedebtors would put on the market if they thought they'd have a snowball's chance in hell of selling.

Students will study the Great US Housing Bubble for hundreds of years. And Phoenix will have it's own special chapter.


Anonymous said...

I always thought the reason to move to the desert was that it was cheap, and you didn't suffer any allergies. The fact that Phoenix and Las Vegas participated in the housing bubble intrigues me. I attribute this fact to a Los Angeles spillover effect. But what do I know; I live in Manhattan.

armed said...

Ahh, things will be fine. It will rise up from the ashes like a great .....

Anonymous said...

But Greg Swann researched it!

EconE said...

so when do you think we'll hit 100k in inventory?

armed said...

Right after 999,999.Duhh

Anonymous said...

A perfect supply and demand snapshot showing why prices got out of hand

Compare July 2005 to today

Anonymous said...

Which aisle is the ramen?

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Yes, and add in the foreclosure auctions on the courthouse steps and you get a 100,000 up for sale. And it's not even August yet.

Anonymous said...

EconE said...
so when do you think we'll hit 100k in inventory?

July 06, 2007 6:40 AM

armed said...
Right after 999,999.Duhh

July 06, 2007 7:30 AM


Good God! One million comes after 999,999!

Man is the educational system going to hell in a handbasket.

Anonymous said...

Better buy now, right?

I wonder what a Greg Swann Dive market report looks like these days? Then again, I wonder whether Swann is wearing pants these days...

Ah! But he still has on his realtor TM R, on a big gold chain!

armed said...


Anonymous said...

I didn't know if that was a chart of Phoenix inventory or Unemployed Illegals Stuck in Phoenix

Dr Phil R Up said...

RUN FOR THE HILLS! The avalanche is coming, people don't you see it!

Sixpercenter said...

Meanwhile over at blood-letting, ah, bloodhound, it's a great time to buy!

trashwacker said...

Phoenix, the jewel of America:

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its
own level.

Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly educated
bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy
money.This souless mix of carpet-bagging transients,
budget seniors,tatooed misfits, real estate grifters,
toothless white trash
tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo
Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population
center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is
really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic
congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses
and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate
food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry,
Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator
of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living
in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the
intelligence charts. The only reason to be here,
(temporarily), is if you're making a decent income
(absolute min. 200k per yr). Anything less is not
worth it, as your health, mental well being and
personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this
genetic cesspool of half-breeds.

As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, THERE".

Anonymous said...

Prices have crashed on the outskirts (QC, maricopa etc..). Inner areas are taking longer. Still 5 years of 5% loss is a big loss at the end. We are going on our 2nd year of 5% loss in the central areas...

Anonymous said...

Oh, BTW the allergies are horrible here. Stuff seems to bloom all year round (except for when it is 100+)

Anonymous said...

I work for www.CurrentForeclosues.com and we have noticed an increase in the number of foreclosures in Phoenix. While this city is not even close as bad as many cities across the nation, it is incredible how quickly the market turned in Phoenix.

GT said...

man it looks like there are ZERO sales in the last month!

Anonymous said...

>> I work for www.CurrentForeclosues.com

www.foreclosure.com called, and they want you to stop ripping off their business idea.

Anonymous said...

Ah, just another sign of the blind leading the blind. Greed is the culprit, and we are all guilty. Hate everyone that made it happen-realtors, contractors, mortgage people, and of course the media-but remember it is YOUR greed that really produced the get rich quick movement. GREED kills..

turdly said...

Anonymous said...

July 06, 2007 8:40 AM

The Arizona Republic
Jul. 6, 2007 12:00 AM

The pair paid $597,000 for the investment home in Tatum Ranch at the height of the housing market in 2005...."I ran the numbers, and the house won't sell for more than $495,000 now," said Barry, of Realty Executives. "They didn't put any money into it. They have an interest-only loan. They could only rent it for about $1,800 and month, but their payment is $3,500...."

that's 82% of pp, minus mortgage, fees, closing, 6%in, 6%out
that's about a 33% loss all together, and that's just what they'll admit to, IF the house were to sell. Subtract another 100k just to get it to sell within the next 10 months, we're close to a 50% loss. That's all that msm can stand to say about Phoenix.

turdly said...

I think you're wrong about Phoenix, it's the second worse attractant for the jesstisined trash of society, Las Vegas is now #1.
A Nevada banking examiner once told me how he thought people got to vegas;

'Look ma! I stole a car and ah'm gonna rob liquor stores all the way to Veegas! Then ah'm gonna turn my life aroun' an be a 'chicken boy' like cousin Merle!. Hell ma, ah can pluck fasser him him all day lon.'.

Anonymous said...

I find most interesting the relation of REOs to sales. REOs are part of the must-sell inventory, together with newly built houses, inherited houses without local heirs etc. A lot of the 60k inventory might be from people who want to cash out near the top, but the must-sell inventory has the power to depress prices, see Rich Toscano's blog (piggington.com).

KaliExPat said...

One side effect of the crazy RE boom in Phoenix is a HUGE uptick in cases of Valley Fever...

So on top of being depressed about the crashing RE market, Phoenix FBs are probably feeling physically like crap as well:

"Valley Fever is a lung infection. A fungus becomes airborne when dust around construction areas and agricultural areas is transported by the wind. When spores are inhaled, Valley Fever can result."

I only know 5 people that live in AZ, but one of them has it so bad they're talking about opening her up to cut it out of her lungs!

frank abbandando said...

Let see - $600,000 to live in a particle board & stucco box in the middle of a 119 degree desert. Where do I sign up?

stuckinthecity said...


That chart is great!

Anonymous said...

yeah.. but just somewhat recently that 600,000 was 84,000 and warm and sunny all winter and filled with fruit and taxed and upkeeped at a very, very low rate, and worked supurbly as a winter retreat.. then again so was.........

Guy Daley said...

I took the time to research the Notice of Defaults and went to one of the trustee lawyers which maintains a website on completed sales in the past SEVEN days and upcoming auctions.


So I did this because I was curious because some yokels say they can't find any deals (BECAUSE YOUR HAVE TO LOOK, THAT'S WHY!!!) and others claim prices are holding steady. But as far as I'm concerned there will never be any deals in Phoenix. What if you do get a 2000 square foot house for $100K, you still have to pay $400 a month for electric and $100 a month for water, sewer and trash (during the summer which is six months long).

This demonstrates how insane prices were inflated by speculators, mortgage fraud and easy credit. Most current prices are sold price at the auction and in every single case final sale price was initial reserve. In other words NOBODY goes to these auctions and bids. NOBODY.

40832 Apollo Way
Anthem 85086

6/25/2007 $277,425
7/20/2005 330,000
11/22/2002 175,000

So that was a 16% haircut.

335 E Shawnee
Queen Creek, AZ 85242

6/22/07 $212,853
5/05/06 280,000

That was 24% haircut

6602 W. Phelps Rd
Glendale, AZ 85306

6/20/07 $171,694
5/01/06 200,000
11/13/02 109,000
6/30/95 69,900

Only 14% off from the peak.

8201 E Fairmont

6/21/07 358,773
5/31/06 419,900
5/20/05 292,500
3/15/05 250,000

14.5% off the peak, but look at the flipping that happening, woohoo!

3836 W. Bethany Home
Phoenix, 85019

6/20/07 190,679
2/09/06 230,000
10/01/04 125,000
02/28/97 97,500

17% haircut

9643 N. 10th Ave
Phoenix, 85021

6/22/07 132,606
12/21/05 304,500
6/02/00 110,000
2/22/95 82,500

This one was ugly, not sure how this occurred. That's 56%

41152 W McDowell Rd
Tonopah, 85354

6/27/07 16,930
5/17/04 115,000

I wish I was there for this one damnit!!! That's an 85% haircut

The last one is extremely valuable as its on Camelback Rd, very expensive real estate.

4503 E Camelback
Phoenix 85018

7/06/07 890,544
8/17/06 1,200,000
3/03/05 900,000
6/24/04 430,000

From the peak that's only 25.7% and a $309,456 loss.

Past sales prices are courtesy of Zillow (thankyou zillow).

I guess prices are sticky until they get foreclosed on, eh?

P.S. You only need certified funds of $10K to bid at an auction.

Can someone in Phoenix go to one of these and fill us in. Don't forget the POPCORN!!!

Interesting sidenote is that HSBC was involved in a lot of these auctions.

Now that I've provided a fascinating account of NOD auctions in Phoenix, WHO will actually go to the website for themselves?

Guy Daley said...

P.S. Here is one of the "successful" bidders at the Shapiro auctions in Phoenix.

HSBC Bank USA, N.A., as Trustee for the registered holders of Nomura Home Equity Loan, Inc., Asset-Backed Certificates, Series 2006-HE2

The HPers will notice it right away, ASSET-BACKED CERTIFICATES.

I think its time to short HSBC.

Anonymous said...

Seattle is starting to suck too

Anonymous said...

Great time to buy, selection has never been better!

Anonymous said...

yeah, but thqat 600,000 was 84,000 less than 5 years back, and the flipperrs have almost increases the property taxes by the same percent of increase, at 84,000 it was a low ante, low cost to keep, warm in winter winter house easily left behind for more pleasant climes in summer, and not realy today at 115 degrees in heat and 3 dollars a gallon..things change!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

So, I bought real estate in Phoenix starting in the early 1990's.

I thought it was expensive then, but my dad said "real estate is the pathway to becoming independently wealthy."

So I bought houses one at a time and rented them out at fair prices.

I accumulated 18 homes and had them rented out most of the time.

By 2000, I had positive cash flow on every property.

In 2002, prices started soaring and I decided to start cashing in.

By 2004, I had half of the properties sold. Then in 2005 it started getting stupid expensive.

By the end of 2005 I had all but 6 properties sold.

Now, I have sold them all and am waiting on the sidelines.

The point is, ya, its hot in Phoenix, it was like 115 today and the humidity is starting to gain speed. The monsoon will be in full bloom within a few weeks and then it really gets miserable around here.

So what? I made a fortune in Phoenix and I am not ashamed.

You idiots think Phoenix is a shithole, but it was lined with gold for me.

My dad was right.

I could care less what happens to prices now. I'm set.