July 25, 2007

This quote pretty much speaks for itself

"We are experiencing home price depreciation almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression"

-Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide Mortgage CEO, July 2007

61 comments:

Anonymous said...

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It is silliness. Home prices "crashed" in the early 1990s - a 50% haircut in some NE cities was not uncommon. Same with the "oil patch" S&L mess...stop with the drama...

Marky Mark

Anonymous said...

.
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Not anywhere near me there isn't.

Anonymous said...

Marky Mark:

Shhhhh. You are violating HP Commandment #1 and #3:

#1: Never let facts get in the way of a good story

#3: Always compare everything to the Great Depression

Shakster said...

.... but Lindsey Lohan is drunk again ,and Paris is really a virgin.Lets roll the tape of Britneys response.MSM will be hard at work today to bring the Idiots of America news they can use.
Figures.Nobody in America had any money to lose in the first place.
On a lighter note the Titanic is taking on a little water.
Now Back to Clark Kent with our top story,Britney stubs her toe,and she's depressed because her baby is fat.
Tune in to our next series of reports,When Babies go Supersize,and what you can do to avoid it.
This just in-the titanic has sunk,and ......whatever.
Back to our Top Breaking news --Britney is in jail,and Lindsey has some coke.Ooh,hold the phones,we have a police pursuit in Santa Monica!We will stay with this story to it's conclusion,don't touch that dial!

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

the median price of a home sold in the month edged up 0.3 percent compared to a year ago to $230,100. It was the first time since July 2006 that there has been a gain in that closely-watched price measure. The June price jumped 3.3 percent compared to May.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

You were saying something about a housing crash.

DOPES

Anonymous said...

It seems like true enough statements, since houses have overall appreciated steadily since WWII. It does seem like there is a big change afoot.

The Thinker said...

Agreed, these clowns keep yapping about the great depression to cover their tracks for all the times they said housing values haven't gone down since the great depression. They are wrong, speculative booms and busts happen all the time, and have happened in housing many times since the great depression. These guys are just a bunch of fools.

Throw Mozilo in jail said...

Orange face is such a slimely jacka$$. The guy will do anything and say anything to deflect attention away from his insider stock sales.

borkafatty said...

Hey Anonopuss look at page 13
Line Item #34 Securitized real estate loans 12

1,214.6

yes that number is Trillions with a T.

That Drama you speak of so eloquently about is REALITY!

And for your info Housing in the 90's a 50% haircut was really no big deal house values were still within a working persons reach $200,000 give or take a few dollars...now with values up 300% in various area's and the toxic loans that were pushed onto stupid people how can you say this is drama. Way bigger than S&L And much bigger than The so called Oil Crises of the 70's.

borkafatty said...

My bad

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/Current/

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Well, you've heard it from one of the largest mortgage lenders in the country - how dire the situation is - yet some of you posting here still do not believe, or choose to accept the situation.

Please continue to visit this blog, as we approach 2008.

If seeing is believing for you, then you'll definitely get an eye full.

Anonymous said...

You know? That's a good point. Can we stop pretending that housing "only goes UP" now?

Perhaps we can provide Uncle Angelo with a copy of "Never Saw It Coming" (by Karen Cerulo)?

It's all about "the power of negative thinking" and exposes how Americans are blindly optimistic even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary!

DinOR

Anonymous said...

Well then, I guess it finally has arrived!

Speculation at whether or not were gonna have a burst of the bubble !

Let the carnage begin!!!!!!!!!

Keyser Soze said...

Indeed guys, nothing new here....I was the head of RE @ a bank in the early 90s and we had took over 2 failed S&Ls. I remember selling a 3000-4000 sq foot brick house for $94k in Houston. It needed some repairs but it was a beautiful house. I think this was a combo of S&L crisis & oil patch debacle( which included that OK City bank failure, and oil prices).

Anonymous said...

MOZILO IS THE HOUSINGPANIC TROLL!!!!!

Anonymous said...

The current housing drop, was always all about affordability. Always was, always will be. Price to rents-price to averege income...

In our current supply-side system, as the credit availability shrivels up tighter than a frogs arse, do to defaults and such, It would be stupid and foolish to Not suggest this problem is systemic and contagious.

Anonymous said...

DOPES said
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

the median price of a home sold in the month edged up 0.3 percent compared to a year ago to $230,100. It was the first time since July 2006 that there has been a gain in that closely-watched price measure. The June price jumped 3.3 percent compared to May.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

You were saying something about a housing crash.

DOPES
___________________________________

Here's the whole article

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. sales of existing homes fell 3.8% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million, the lowest rate since November 2002, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Sales in June were down 11.4% from June 2006. Inventories of unsold homes on the market fell by 180,000, or 4.2%, to 4.20 million, representing a 8.8-month supply at the June sales rate. The months’ supply was also 8.8 months in May, the highest since 1992. The median sales price was $230,100, up 0.3% since June 2006. It’s the first time in 11 months that median sales prices did not fall compared with a year earlier.

So let me get this straight

Home supply went down but so did sales, so the months supply of homes stayed the same as compared to may.

Median price is up, but sales are down 11.1%. I'm pretty sure the drop in sales was from the bottom part of the market - thereby causing the median price to move up.

We are at the absolute busiest time of the year for real estate. This is as good as it's going to get for 2007. Seasonally, things start to move down from here, so no more masking year over year declines by the month over month increases.

I love ya, DOPES. You make me laugh all the way to the bank!

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

"...the head of RE @ a bank in the early 90s and we had took over 2 failed S&Ls. I remember selling a 3000-4000 sq foot brick house for $94k in Houston. It needed some repairs but it was a beautiful house..."

Keyser, my brother bought one of these places on the total cheap about that time. Three bedrooms, two baths, brick, in ground swimming pool, established 'hood for lovely price of $88,000.

Anonymous said...

Well I don't know about the rest of the country, but I can tell you that in Northern Baltimore county the prices have come down 10-20% from last year, and those are just the ones selling. Inventory is rising fast as well. I watch the local real estate very carefully, and have noticed the shift in prices over the past several months especially. In Ocean City, Maryland, the condo market is abysmal, with a local realtor saying it is the worst he has ever seen. I would not buy anything now, as I think the next year will get even worse.

Anonymous said...

Got Milk?





Maybe it will turn his face white since he obviously ate too many oranges.

anagama said...

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

the median price of a home sold in the month edged up 0.3 percent compared to a year ago to $230,100.


Are you sure it is home "sale price" that increased, or is it actually "for sale price" that increased?

see: http://tinyurl.com/2lq2ta

The article states:

Existing home sales fell 3.8 pct in June to a 5.75 mln unit annual pace, much lower than the expected pace of 5.85 mln units. That puts June existing home sales at the lowest pace since November 2002, when the annual pace was 5.73 mln units. ... Despite the continuing drop in existing home sales, the median existing home price in June increased 0.3 pct from June 2006 to 230,100 usd.

What this sounds like to me is a bunch of new sellers optimistically pricing their houses as they flood the market with inventory.

I've just started scraping the MLS site for data to graph and play with. In my area, on July 8, there were 100 condos listed, 260 on July 22. Indeed, the asking price was up a bit. Same story for houses, 7/8=424, 7/22=793, price up slightly.

What is interesting is that in the same time period, a significant number (67) of houses dropped in price (this would be the people with experience of what the market is like perhaps). 16% of the 7/8 homes dropped their prices (largest drop = 11.2% , most desperate: 89.9k -> 79.9k (2nd highest %age drop)).

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how newly listed houses fare in the coming months.

Anonymous said...

In another year there will be more and more defaults and people trying to jump ship to get away from a resetting arm.

This is the beginning, next year it gets worse.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

the median price of a home sold in the month edged up 0.3 percent compared to a year ago to $230,100. It was the first time since July 2006 that there has been a gain in that closely-watched price measure. The June price jumped 3.3 percent compared to May.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

You were saying something about a housing crash.

DOPES

July 25, 2007 2:29 PM
-----------
On my lunch break and I just read on CNN that YOY (yes OMG MSM does point to YOY numbers sometimes) national housing price # was up ever so slightly by 0.3%. USAToday pegged the YOY price increase at 0.1%. Both mentioned that sales volume was down HUGE YOY and that is was also WAY under analysts predictions of a further drop in sales volume which currentl sits at 5.75 million annual pace.

I said hey I beter post the broader context of the miniscule YOY # before some realtwhore troll starts crowing that everything is rosy, but the trolls beat me to it. True to form the trolls are alreayd out pointing to the slightest nanogram of a scintilla of evidence that things are fine. Right after one of their brethren members and leaders of their REIC cult has come clean after chasing out his stock options!!

PATHETIC

MBWatcher said...

It's getting desperate even in tony Manhattan Beach, CA.

New tactic: Would you believe, FREE LUXURY CAR WITH PURCHASE:

http://mbcon.blogspot.com/2007/07/take-house-take-car.html

J-Dog said...

That stat about median price rising may be accurate however it fails to take into account at least three significant factors.

#1) Inflation is clearly higher than .3%

#2) Increased incentives and cash back at close inflate the reported sales prices pushing the median higher.

#3) More significantly, sales have been noticeably schewed to the higher end as many first time buyers of lower end product simply can't get financed the way they could last year when companies like New Century were in their prime. People with money down, better credit, or move-up homeowners are the ones purchasing (albeit at a slower rate), and they are purchasing in the middle to higher end of the market. Anyone who actually understands median price can clearly understand the effect this has on reported median price.

A good way to truly assess value changes would be $/sq.ft. which by all accounts is headed downward.

A better way to assess value change is to look at foreclosure rates. Our economy is still healthy, and unemployment is still low, thus people are losing their houses to the banks for more reasons than they just can't afford to make the payments. A possible explanation is that they can't sell the house for what they bought it for. They would rather stop making payments and have their credit ruined than sell at market value and bring money to close. I know people personally who bought in the last two years who have done this.

Perhaps the best way to assess value is to look at same unit sales. We are starting to see some of this in Ventura where I live, and I can assure you that same unit values are down 20+% over the last 18 months. I could provide several examples of this if challenged.

Its never different this time!!!

Anonymous said...

I love HP

median price goes up: evidence of a crash

median goes down: evidence of a crash

median stays flat: evidence of a crash

dow goes up: evidence of a crash

dow goes down: evidence of a crash

(yawn) said...

As with any financial asset, there are winners and losers, and varying degrees in there.

The latest report is showing that essentially, homes had a small adjustment down, and will now most likely stagnate for a long time. That stagnation, while inflation is 2-4%, will cause housing to effectively drop 10-20% in the next 5 years effectively. So yeah, ultimately - since blogs/whiners like this love to spin each report negatively as the REIC spins it positively - inflation-adjustment graphs will show a nuclear-bomb-type of pricing situation.

In reality, some people will just have to stay put for 5-10 years in order to see any gains (non-inflation-adjusted). They got 5-10 years of peace of mind living in/owning their own home. Bitterness is not good for you, nor is jealousy. Work smarter, earn/save more, and stop hatin'. :)

Anonymous said...

MBWatcher said...

It's getting desperate even in tony Manhattan Beach, CA.

New tactic: Would you believe, FREE LUXURY CAR WITH PURCHASE:

http://mbcon.blogspot.com/2007/07/take-house-take-car.html

July 25, 2007 4:29 PM

======================

Nothing new. This have been standard practice for over a year with luxury homes.

The $8 an hour HP set wouldn't know about it, I guess they don't give too many luxury cars away at Chez Ghetto Apartments.

borkafatty said...

The June price jumped 3.3 percent
----------

Sweet!!! Values are up!! please anyone any loaner troll or
mortgage whore please Refinance me but here is the catch:

I want a no Doc-Interest only loan ARM (Of Course) with a teaser rate of 1% I need just $100,000 for the loan but F@ck it Ill take and extra $100,000 for some Hookers and Cocaine.
I want a Pre-Payment penalty say! 5 years I want L.I.B.O.R + 8% with a 5% cap..oh and if you could, a balloon payment after the Initial 5 years that would be convenient also.
CALL ME!! I NEED TO CASH OUT!!! WALMART IS LOWERING THEIR PRICES AND I NEED TO SHOPPPPPPP!!!!

Anonymous said...

NOT according to reports from NAR today. They say prices are still going up.

WTF?!

However, the report had one spot of strength. The median sales price was $230,100, up 0.3 percent since June 2006, marking the first time in 11 months that median sales prices did not fall from year-earlier levels. Earlier the Mortgage Bankers Association said its index fell 3.6 percent for the week ended July 20 in data released earlier, along with a 5.0 percent drop in the purchase index and a 1.4 percent decline in the refinancing index. The bond market's mood was cautious Wednesday, following recent gains.

coffee is for closers still lending said...

And here I thought it was always sunny for orange man in the financial tanning booth...

iwannabeemer said...

It's getting desperate even in tony Manhattan Beach, CA.

New tactic: Would you believe, FREE LUXURY CAR WITH PURCHASE:


Wow, you can pay property taxes on your Beemer! And you have 30 years to pay for it - uh, Beemers do last 30 years, don't they?

Anonymous said...

Hey AnonyPuss 2:20 PM

" BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!

the median price of a home sold in the month edged up 0.3 percent compared to a year ago to $230,100. It was the first time since July 2006 that there has been a gain in that closely-watched price measure. The June price jumped 3.3 percent compared to May.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

You were saying something about a housing crash.

DOPES

July 25, 2007 2:29 PM"

Here's a wish that Keith will throw you lying/half-truth a$$ outta here. But then again, he can't since you're such a big puss you won't register. I'll register when a realtor puss like you registers.

HAHAHA Puss!

Anonymous said...

NAR:

Prices going up, UP, UP!!!

roflmfao!!!

Anonymous said...

Wow, you can pay property taxes on your Beemer! And you have 30 years to pay for it - uh, Beemers do last 30 years, don't they?

July 25, 2007 5:32 PM

========

Newsflash moron. Most states require you pay property tax on cars already.

Anonymous said...

0.3% YOY price gains does not a housing crash make.

Let's review shall we class:

2001-2005 prices doubled.

2005-2006 prices fell 2%

2006-2007 prices gained 0.3%

And you fools think you did the right thing by renting all along. Sure thing.

No_worries said...

There can never be another depression, there are safeguards in place.

Anonymous said...

It's Bimmer, not Beemer. Dope!

Anonymous said...

"The latest report is showing that essentially, homes had a small adjustment down, and will now most likely stagnate for a long time."

I hope for your spouse's sake you're not this premature in everything you do.

Anonymous said...

<-------------------------------->
Anonymous said...
Wow, you can pay property taxes on your Beemer! And you have 30 years to pay for it - uh, Beemers do last 30 years, don't they?

July 25, 2007 5:32 PM

========

Newsflash moron. Most states require you pay property tax on cars already.
<-------------------------------->

I've only lived in one state (among four in the past eight years) that collected an annual property tax on vehicles. Sales tax gets paid once, when you purchase the car. Property taxes are paid annually.

So, by paying an inflated price for the house in Manhattan Beach, you are in essence, paying an unnecessary property tax on your car every year that you own the house. Even after you sell the car, you're still paying property tax on the car. California is so screwed up in so many ways, maybe that kind of reasoning is considered normal there. Where I live, we don't pay taxes on our vehicles every year, and we certainly wouldn't think it wise to pay taxes on our car years AFTER we sell it.

Anonymous said...

If I were Angelo, I would wait until I cashed in before I made a comment like that. Only common sense. Very nice otherwise.

Anonymous said...

Newsflash moron. Most states require you pay property tax on cars already.
---------------------------------

only in the socialist states, like CA, which means you will be paying it twice.

EW-was-right said...

"We are experiencing home price depreciation almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression"
-Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide Mortgage CEO, July 2007
-----------------------------------Robert Prechter over at Elliot Wave predicted it all years ago.

Anonymous said...

I enjoy listening to those who are so sure about predicting the future. Homes will do this and that will do that. Enough already. We'll see what happens when we get there.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Newsflash moron. Most states require you pay property tax on cars already.
---------------------------------

only in the socialist states, like CA, which means you will be paying it twice.

July 25, 2007 7:09 PM


=============

Massachusetts, Nevada and Georgia make you pay a form of property tax on cars. I've lived in all 3 states. It's not called property tax but it is essentially the same thing, a tax paid based on the value of the car. More expensive the car, the higher the tax, ie a new BMW = $500 a year, a 20 year old Honda = $20 a year.

Anonymous said...

1929 PARTY ON

Anonymous said...

Hey anon beeatch:

Anonymous said...
0.3% YOY price gains does not a housing crash make.

Let's review shall we class:

2001-2005 prices doubled.

2005-2006 prices fell 2%

2006-2007 prices gained 0.3%

And you fools think you did the right thing by renting all along. Sure thing.

July 25, 2007 6:08 PM
------------------
0.3% YOY minus inflation is a PRICE DROP!! After double digit gains YOY beyond inflation we're just in the deceleration phase, note that this price increase came at a very reduced volume, e.g. its like a "light trading day" once sellers are forced/decide to sell at the new price point and volume stabilizes even before inflation you'll have depreciation. This is all just part of the reversion to the mean!!

FYI -here is my post in another thread. I think its more accurate and unbiased than your realtwhore version.

Ciao B!tch

Anonymous said...
Anonymous said...
1999: Y2K

2007: Housing Crash

July 25, 2007 4:50 PM
------------
Correction:

1999: Y2K--fizzled

2000: DOT BOMB--Exploded

2001: 9/11--Massive deficit spending, recession

2002-2005: Insanely low Fed overnight funds rate inflates the largest asset/credit bubble in human history

2006: Rate increases to create Soft Landing

2007 & Beyond: Lord knows but it does not look pretty despite all the willfully blind anon trolls who are tapping their ruby slippers together.

July 25, 2007 5:19 PM

james dean said...

HousingPanic mentioned in article at http://www.cnbc.com/id/19956948

BTW - Troll, medians go up because subprime is the first segment to tighten. Low end borrowers can no longer buy low end homes. It's not rocket science. Do you really believe prices nationally are rising? No, I knew you didn't.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Newsflash moron. Most states require you pay property tax on cars already.
---------------------------------

only in the socialist states, like CA, which means you will be paying it twice.

July 25, 2007 7:09 PM


=============

Massachusetts, Nevada and Georgia make you pay a form of property tax on cars. I've lived in all 3 states. It's not called property tax but it is essentially the same thing, a tax paid based on the value of the car. More expensive the car, the higher the tax, ie a new BMW = $500 a year, a 20 year old Honda = $20 a year.

___________________________________

So, what you are saying is that you get to pay double taxation on your vehicle. One tax is tied up in your property value (which was artificially inflated by including the value of the luxury car) which you will pay for as long as you own the house. Then you get to pay a SECOND tax to register same said Luxury Vehicle with the MVD.

Sounds like a great deal, where do I sign up?

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

no really how many of you HP regulats bouught Y2K bomb shelters? be honest now.

Airsanford said...

I'll echo the Anon from Baltimore, except from Arlington, Va. Things are off a solid 20% in the 22204 zip code. I would have gotten 650k for my house 2 years ago. I will take 525K and run like hell if it sells this fall. Stuff has really slowed down in the last month.

Bitter Renter said...

I'll bet in year one of their 13 year real estate price decline the Japanese real estate cheerleaders were chiding those who spoke of a bubble correction.

james said...

Airsanford: Down 20%?? Whuhu!!! I'm hoping to buy in that area when the dust settles. I'm hoping for a 2br condo for under 150k. Way under.

deepcgi said...

This is definitely a slow motion train wreck. It's like watching the Titanic sink. I actually can't imagine that we are not approaching some rapid monthly declines.

Anyone care to guess when we will see big number drops in the stats?

I'm going to guess January's numbers (reported in mid-February) will show the post-holiday hangover wearing-off.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

No need for predictions, it is an
absolute certainty - given the current facts about this nation-wide housing crisis - that economic conditions in this country will get much worse as we approach 2008.

~~~

Anonymous said...
I enjoy listening to those who are so sure about predicting the future. Homes will do this and that will do that. Enough already. We'll see what happens when we get there.

Anonymous said...

So the trolls have given up on insisting that it's a great time to buy. They even admit that the 2005-2006 FB's are screwed. As we all know, the lenders are screwed. 99% of flippers doubled down and lost it all back. HELOCs have to be repaid. If Bronzillo and the HB CEO's can stay out of prison, then they are the winners while the taxpayers all lose due to higher taxes and inflation to bail out some of the lenders and FB's.

Anonymous said...

There are different investments that do good at different phases in any economic cycle. Real Estate had its turn and now its over for a lonnnnnnng. I bought in 1999 and sold last October. I now rent and shall till prices return to the mean minus 20%. They will most likely over correct on the way down like they did going up. Currently where I live in Colorado it cost roughly half as much to rent as own. There is a rent ceiling of approximately 2000 dollars a month. For this you get a house that used to cost 600-700000 and is 3500 to 5000 sqft. Mine is almost 5500 with a 6 car garage, not exactly a small ghetto apartment troll. Where is the motivation to buy when the cost of owning is double that of renting. The other advantage of renting is if I lose my job or take a pay cut I have enough saved to ride out a year lease. I don't have enough to ride out a 30 year mortgage or 10 year stagnant market.

Sequoia512.

edd said...

Countryfried Loans
http://tinyurl.com/2g2nxf
Letter from :
Countrywide, Mary Jane Seebach
Managing Director Public Affairs
March 27. 2006
To: Jennifer Johnson, Secretary
Board of Governors, Federal Reserve

'Collateral-Dependent Loans'
"Countrywide agrees that
underwriting an individual
borrower's loans, relying solely
on the borrower's ability to sell
or refinance the transaction once
the amortization period commences
is not prudent.

However, given the realities of
the consumer mortgage market in
which borrowers no longer retain
their loans for extended periods,
such assumptions are appropriate
in designing loan programs when
counterbalanced by other mitigating factors.

We also note that the use of
multivariate scoring models in the
underwriting process further
lessens collateral dependence."

Anonymous said...

Deepcgi said:"Anyone care to guess when we will see big number drops in the stats"?

LauraVella said: I'll make a guess and say Sept. of this year because summer housing season will be over and the "new loan standards" will be adopted by banks. This is when the fun will begin...and the real fireworks starting at the end of this year with job layoffs and property tax increases.

I'm just glad we rent! If our rent goes up next year (don't think it will) we will move somewhere else. It's so nice not to pay high closing costs when you want to move!

Anonymous said...

"Nothing new. This have been standard practice for over a year with luxury homes.

The $8 an hour HP set wouldn't know about it, I guess they don't give too many luxury cars away at Chez Ghetto Apartments".

LauraVella said: Answer me this riddler troll- why would anyone have to entice a buyer with a new car if home prices always go up? And... why put "reduced", or "new low price" signs on a home? Doesnt RE always just always go up??

Riddle that in your head for awhile troll!

Anonymous said...

every month the tinfoilhat gang predicts next month the crash starts. In April the crash was supposed to start in May. In may it got moved up to June. Now lauravella moves it up to Sept.

Prediction: In Sept the new crash start date will be October.

Keep dreaming idiots. You will be renting the 1 bed shithole for the rest of you unholy lives.

Now dont you have a Ron Paul banner to sew?