July 23, 2007

Think that house 20 miles away from everything is depreciating fast today? Just wait. Welcome to a world with not enough oil to meet demand.

Get beyond the "peak oil" argument and freak show, and just look (again, and as always) to basic supply and demand. Long term we know we'll move off of oil and into renewable energy resources, but short term, we're screwed. There isn't enough production capacity to meet demand over the next decade or more, with China, India and the developing world heating up, and the US addicted to the black stuff with absolutely no conservation plan or renewables push.

We're simply gonna run short. And how does the market deal with shortages? You got it - prices will go through the roof. The only way to lower demand, and it will be painful (for consumers) yet oh, so profitable (for oil companies and refiners and alternative fuel producers).

Get ready. And if you haven't already, sell that house out in the exurbs as fast as you can. And the stupid Hummer H2 too.

Oil companies see profits soar … but warn production cannot meet demand

OIL GIANTS BP, Shell and Exxon will heighten fears that petrol prices are set to jump the £1-a-litre barrel barrier this week when they are all expected to admit that their production is failing to keep pace with surging global demand.

Their message will reinforce the recent stark warning from the International Energy Agency that there could be oil industry shortages stretching up to 2012 despite the vast sums now being spent on exploration and development.

For once the disappointing news on output could overshadow the level of profits the companies are earning even though Exxon, for example, is expected to announce second quarter earnings of approaching $11 billion (£5.5bn) which is the highest ever earned by a single company in such a short period.

The oil companies are expected to blame various outside factors for the disappointing production levels, including falling output from the North Sea, terrorism in Nigeria and Iraq and political interference in Venezuela, as well as restrictions by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

92 comments:

Mark in San Diego said...

Renting downtown saved me $$$ on gas and insurance. . .

Last year I drove 5000 miles. . .period. Since moving into a nice RENTAL in downtown SD, I walk almost everyplace (ok, a weekly trip to Trader Joe's). . .my AAA insurance was reduced, and I don't care if gas costs $5 a gallon. . .people think I am crazy because I actually walk 5 blocks to the supermarket . . .this is California you know - a place where they drive down to the end of their driveways to get the mail!

What is amazing, is that they are still building houses out in places like Lathrop, CA (don't bother to Google - it's 70 miles from SF). . .these "towns" will just dry up and blow away like the old western ghost towns.

keith said...

Homebuilder stocks = way down

Oil company stocks = way up

Far-flung exurb house values = crashed

City center home values = holding up better

Go figure

Anonymous said...

The technology to overcome the "dependence" is, and has been, available for almost 100 years.

http://tinyurl.com/l4nd9

Wake up

Anonymous said...

I make my own ethanol. It's easy. It's fun. It tastes good. It even makes me forget things like peak oil, for awhile.

Anonymous said...

The oil companies are expected to blame various outside factors for the disappointing production levels, including falling output from the North Sea, terrorism in Nigeria and Iraq and political interference in Venezuela, as well as restrictions by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

And…democrats preventing domestic drilling in Alaska, Florida, California, etc. Democrat opposition to building new oil refineries. Democrat opposition to building nuclear power plants...hmmmm...seems to be a pattern.

Marky Mark

RJ said...

I see more and more condo developments being built near downtown centers of smaller cities around Los Angeles. This is the trend of the future,ie, walkable communities. What is extremely worrying is what I don't see happening and that is the expansion or development of urban light rail systems. Out of necessity we will turn to alternative transportation fuels, but none exist with the energy density of petroleum. Like biodeisel, the alternatives are expensive (in terms of the ratio of energy invested to energy returned) and less efficient. Without vastly expanded rail service, outlying suburbs are going to become isolated, abandoned, ghost towns in twenty years.
The government does know the score on energy. I believe much of the power that is congealing around the executive branch through presidential executive orders has more to do with controlling possible chaos caused by future catastrophic energy shortages or outages rather than terrorist threats.

Anonymous said...

RAPE of the middle class continues. In America's version of communism, the middle class pay for the poor. The rich get a free ride.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070723/bs_nm/subprime_states_dc_1;_ylt=Au9.jx1KjCjn3dBvZ98JIqiz1g4B

Sun Jul 22, 11:26 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A number of U.S. states are setting up funds to help homeowners with risky subprime mortgages refinance to more affordable loans in a bid to slow the rate of home foreclosures, The Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site.


The states -- which include Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- are expected to invest a total of more than $500 million in the effort, the newspaper said.

State officials hope this will be enough to keep some vulnerable low and moderate income neighborhoods from sliding into decline.

The Journal said some of the programs will be similar to existing government-lending programs, in which the state extends mortgages to homeowners and then sells those home loans, in some cases to companies such as mortgage and finance giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - FRE - news).

The state then recycles the proceeds from the sales to make additional loans, the newspaper said.

Anonymous said...

2004: We're running out of land, buy real estate or be priced out forever

2007: We're running out of oil, buy a Prius now or you'll be priced out forever

Same lies, different liars, same gullible fools buying the snakeoil

Anonymous said...

It's a consitutional right to own a huge gas guzzling road hog.

It's also a constitutional right to be an asshole.

You don't have to choose any of the above.

Anonymous said...

Yes unless we redo our infrastructure to put the jobs in the exburbs then, the exburb concept is toast. Telecommuting/work at home in conjunction w/ electric cars/hybrids would be the only thing to give them a lifeline.

I plan on moving in close enough to my work place and RENT so I capture that 1-2 hours a day dealing with commuting (private and/or public transportation). The cost savings in fuel & time will significantly offset the higher rent & it would still be much less than the cost of ownership under current market conditions!!

Ethanol is not the answer as its raping the land of valuable food resources and boasting energy consumption and pollution!! (farm equipment, fertilizer etc).

keith said...

Marky Mark - agree, the Dems screwed the pooch on the supply side by not allowing new refineries and drilling. The Republicans screwed the pooch on the demand side by not allowing fuel economy standards nor encouraging conservation and renewable energies.

Result? America is screwed.

I hate all politicians and all Democrats and Republicans, except for the very few free thinkers like Ron Paul. The two parties have destroyed America.

Anonymous said...

I disagree. Not everyone works downtown. I'd guess there is more suburb to suburb commuting these days than suburb to downtown. Building commuter trains into downtown or downtown condos won't do much.

Anonymous said...

Selling an exurban home and moving downtown doesn't seem like a good plan, either. Everything is more expensive in a city, not just housing. Groceries, clothes, electronics. Most things are at a premium.

Cars can be made more fuel efficient. If we run out of oil, I'd rather be close to arable land and away from the masses. A small house in the exurbs would be much easier to retrofit for solar or wind than a condo building, too.

keith said...

I'll clarify - 20 miles away from jobs

Think Maricopa, Arizona

Anonymous said...

To Keith:

Marky Mark - agree, the Dems screwed the pooch on the supply side by not allowing new refineries and drilling. The Republicans screwed the pooch on the demand side by not allowing fuel economy standards nor encouraging conservation and renewable energies.

The BIG difference is that the market will correct what you see as the Republican problem. When the level of "pain" hits the tipping point (I would say at $5/gallon) - people will dump the SUVs and buy little 3 cylinder 50 mph cars (kinda what happened in the 1970s). The market will react in the most efficient way if left alone by government.

Same with "renewable energies" - when they make economic sense, the market will promote it and people with use it. Right now, even with oil at $75/gallon – they are still not economically viable – but they are getting close (and this actual worries OPEC).

Forcing people into products they don't want or subsiding or forcing energy products that don't work is doomed to failure (remember Jimmy Carter's energy policy?)

The world has plenty of oil and energy. And we all know how the energy crisis of the 1970s ended - with a glut of oil for the next 20 years as people and companies (on their own) got more efficient.

Marky Mark

Anonymous said...

who works 20 miles away from home? I don't, can't think of anyone I know who does. This commuter who spends hours upon hours in the car every day is a myth

Anonymous said...

No house is 20 miles away from "everything". One man's everything is another man's nothing. I could care less about being close to nightclubs or overpriced "trendy" restaurants. But being close to a lake for me is fantastic.

Stop with the one size fits all mentality.

keith said...

I know many people that live 1 to 2 HOURS away from their work

Anonymous said...

And…democrats preventing domestic drilling in Alaska, Florida, California, etc. Democrat opposition to building new oil refineries. Democrat opposition to building nuclear power plants...hmmmm...seems to be a pattern.

And what of failure to tighten CAFE standards? I guess that was a Democrat failure, huh?

Why do you people always politicize things as democratic or republican. Yeah, like there aren't any Republicans that are environmentalists. Teddy Roosevelt was a staunch conservationist for Christ's sake- and he was a fu*king trust buster who would shit fire were he here today.

Get a fu*king clue.

Anonymous said...

"This commuter who spends hours upon hours in the car every day is a myth"

Come to DC my friend- there are people living in Pennsylvania who commute everyday. A co-worker of mine commutes from Fredricksburg, Va everyday. He gets here before 7:00AM and does not leave until well after 7:00PM.

Anonymous said...

"I could care less about being close to nightclubs or overpriced "trendy" restaurants. But being close to a lake for me is fantastic."

I would agree, but that lake and/or country home is 1-2 hours from work for many of us.

Anonymous said...

Best bet will be in the not so distant furture old, currently washed up downtowns. Most cities, certainly in the northeast and upper midwest, were logistically smart places to build, and will really become so again. Think sails, railroad infrastucture, etc. Despite technological advances, there will have to be a downward pressure on Americans to consume less, and in some ways we will go back in time.

Anonymous said...

I moved closer in 3 years ago in order to keep commute times down and to be able to bike to work. Heck, I could walk to work if push came to shove.

I put 3000 miles on my car last year, about 80% were commute miles.

Anonymous said...

The BIG difference is that the market will correct what you see as the Republican problem.
-----------------------------------

I think the market will correct the democrat problem too. Eventually the price of oil will hit a point where people will say, screw the caribou.

Anonymous said...

who works 20 miles away from home? I don't, can't think of anyone I know who does. This commuter who spends hours upon hours in the car every day is a myth
----------------------------------

you are trying to be funny, right?

Anonymous said...

It's the master bush plan: we wind up riding the bicycles China has left behind.

Anonymous said...

20 miles each way = 40 miles a day. 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year is 10,000 miles a year. At $3 a gallon and 20 MPG that's a cost of $1500 a year.

Let's say Keith is right and gas doubles in price. An extra $1500 a year in commuting costs will not be the end of the world for the majority of people. Do you really think Mr. and Mrs. Suburban will pack up and move into the city to save $1500 a year? Gee honey let's send the kids to Ghetto High so we save $4 a day.

Yea right.

justice said...

Looks like at least one H2 a-hole got what was coming to him...

Vandals attack man's Hummer, leave note
Wed Jul 18, 11:03 PM ET

When Gareth Groves brought home his massive new Hummer, he knew his environmentally friendly neighbors disapproved. But he didn't expect what happened next. The sport utility vehicle was parked for five days on the street before two masked men smashed the windows, slashed the tires and scratched into the body: "FOR THE ENVIRON."

"The thought of somebody vandalizing it never crossed my mind," said Gareth Groves, who lives near American University in Northwest Washington. "I've kind of been in shock."

Police said they see small acts of vandalism in the area from time to time, but they have not seen anything so severe, or with such a clear political message, in recent years.

"This seems to be an isolated event," Cmdr. Andy Solberg said.

Investigators said they are searching for the vandals but don't have many leads. Witnesses said they saw two men smash up the seven-foot-tall SUV early Monday and then run off.

Now, as Groves contemplates what to do with the remains of his $38,000 Hummer, he has had to deal with a number of people who have driven by the crime scene and glared at him in smug satisfaction.

"I'd say one in five people who come by have that 'you-got-what-you-deserve' look," said his friend Andy Sexton.

Neighbor Lucille Liem, who owns a Prius hybrid, said that a common sentiment in the neighborhood is that large vehicles such as the Hummer are impractical and a strain on the Earth.

"The neighborhood in general is very concerned with the environment," said Liem, whose Prius gets about 48 miles a gallon compared with the Hummer's 14 miles a gallon. "It's more liberal leaning. It's ridiculous to be driving a Hummer."

Liem quickly added that she does not condone violence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070719/ap_on_fe_st/odd_hummer_vandalized

JohnDiddler said...

oh THAT's where the bubble's imploding! cuz my in-city lot is appreciating. praise oil!

Anonymous said...

"Come to DC my friend- there are people living in Pennsylvania who commute everyday"

PA to DC can be as little as 40 miles.

bubbleglum said...

The couple who bought my acreage and house next to me are remodeling a huge old house they moved onto the land and dumping never ending bucks into it. Husband doesn't have a job; he's supposed to be remodeling house.

Meanwhile, the wife drives 200 MILES to her job. She lives in the city during the week and drives her big SUV home to the country on weekends. Gas bill just to come home and go back per month: about $500. They have a large balloon payment to me coming due in less than 3 years.

They don't know it yet but they're headed for financial disaster.

Anonymous said...

ALLAH AQBAR AL_QWEEFER.

Death to the infidel H2

Death to capitalism

Long live communism and bycicles

Anonymous said...

I stopped driving at $1.65 a gallon for everything but grocery shopping once a week, and that as a way to keep the battery charged, its only about two miles a week, guess i should complain to the auto insurer also...

Anonymous said...

Beazer Homes Says SEC Conducting Probe

ATLANTA -- Beazer Homes USA Inc. has received a notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission that the agency is conducting an informal inquiry to determine if any person or entity related to the company has violated securities laws, the homebuilder said Thursday, The Associated Press reported.

The Thinker said...

The suburbs (why are we calling them exurbs now?) are not going to become less desirable as cheap oil disappears because the cities are already quite crowded and expensive and any desire to move closer to the city to save money on gas will be quickly offset by all of the many extra costs that are involved with living in a city.

Moreover, employers do no and cannot bring salaries up to levels necessary to support city living. The reason people moved out to the burbs in the first place is to save money and enjoy a higher quality of life. Expensive oil will translate into inflation and if anything, more people will move out of expensive cities to find a cheaper and higher quality of life.

If the price of gas moves to, say $10 a gallon, I think we will see a lot more local businesses popping up in the suburbs as people abandon the car trips to the large meglomarts.

We will also see an increase in small cars, carpooling and telecommuting. People may turn in their Explorers for Yarises.

bickerer said...

Yup, NOTHING is beyond business as usual and the money game for our bought and paid for politicians.

Like this for instance - Corn based ethanol is infeasible because corn just don't got enough energy in it. Sugar based corn is what's feasible. But the Agriculture/Farm Lobby pushes corn ethanol because we would have to import the sugar.

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/3/28/16510/3803

Nice!

mrmx said...

the Dems screwed the pooch on the supply side

based on America's consumption rate, the amount of recoverable oil in these areas ranges from several months to a few years so the projects are simply pork projects.

IMO, some of the more interesting supply side work centers around battery storage which stores unused electricity at night and releases it during the day during peak usage.

Magoo said...

http://www.teslamotors.com/

300 miles on a charge and <$100K isn't unreasonable when you have reserves on tap to out accelerate all but million dollar supercars. And the Lithium technology that makes this possible, could pale by comparison to Chromium and other atoms in development. Anyone in the RC aviation hobby knows how far batteries have come in the last decade - $25 electric RC helicopters in the grocery store anyone?

The question I have is what % of crude oil is refined and cracked to fuel consumer cars? I'm guessing it's around 50%. Oil supply is certainly going to pinch consumers something fierce, but don't expect an end to individual transportation anytime soon.

And another thing, not all jobs are in the city. Especially not those jobs that have a physical output and wouldn't be eliminated by overdue tax or legal code restructuring.

hates to starve said...

I can appreciate the desire to move back to the city to cut commuting expenses but where will you put the garden when food becomes prohibitively expensive? Will you be willing to pay $20 for a tomato? The US can not sustain a system where food travels an average of 1500 miles from grower to the ultimate consumer.

There must be a happy medium like a home 5 miles from work on the edge of a very small city. The big cities are toast due to the impossibility of feeding and providing power to these energy gluttons.

Anonymous said...

I just purchased a 27 panel solar sytem that has just under a 10 year payback at todays energy prices. It is large enough provide over 85% of my energy usage. It can readily be expanded once electic cars become more mainstream and cheaper to purchase. I also live only 7 miles from my work so my need for fuel is not all that great. I live in San Diego so 7 miles is nothing compared to the average. It also takes me 10-15 minutes to get to and from work so I spend more time with my family which was the original reason I paid extra to live closer.

mrmx said...

"who works 20 miles away from home?"

I work just about 20 miles exactly from home.

Pete said...

If shipping gets real expensive, maybe we can start making things here again.

Erick said...

All things are connected into some grand human ecosystem. Welcome to peak oil. Getting from bad to worse.....

Erick said...

Oil demand is inelastic. living 20 miles or more makes the oil purchase choice a must. Don't like the peak oil argument?

Lets just skip the loaded phrase and call it opposite of the housing market.....

long on demand short on supply.

Values of houses will drop even more once the commuting ability becomes less affordable.

Anonymous said...

People drive from Sacramento to San Jose every day.

No kidding.

(They got a great price on a house in Sacramento 3 years ago. LOL!)

Anonymous said...

The cities will be in riots, PANIC and looting when all the US banks fold and close their doors and everything stops. Thats when bush will take over America by force, implement martial law and begin mass murder operations - just like in Iraq - control the oil, the people and the banks. He is the best President ever - just look at all his supporters that got paid - in some fashion - to help him with the destruction of America as we know it.

Bye my fellow friends, the American Dream didnt last long...

1776 - 2007 The rise and fall of America.

2008 - The United PNAC Regime of America with King GW Bush in charge (Bush will continue to be president because of the loosing war on terror. Watch.) These guys are ruthless killers, liars, paranoid and mentally ill...just for starters.

MOBIL 1 said...

Peak oil or not its just like what the realtor told me about house prices in 2004: "Its Supply and Demand."
There are too many reasons to list as to why WE should not pump out OUR oil at such low prices. In the end a country's true wealth is its natural resources.
We can only hope that Dick Bush and their ilk are not around to enjoy the profits.

Anonymous said...

I Just saw a NEW 2007 Caddilac Esplenade parked inside the local mall. You know what the MPG sticker was? 13MPG CITY and 17MPG HWY!!

This was a 2007!

Maybe that's why GM is $8 billion in the red.

Anonymous said...

Average US daily commute of 32 miles

Life for commuters can be heaven or hell. They report an average one-way commute time of 26 minutes (over an average distance of 16 miles)

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Traffic/story?id=485098&page=1

Adelaide said...

Why do Americans think they need such huge vehicles? I've never understood why you need a SUV if you live in a suburb? In Australia, many people drive these vehicles too, but nowadays they are considered idiots and posers, as the price of oil here has gone up significantly.

Anonymous said...

DAMN! "bycicles"?!? WTF???


Anonymous said...
ALLAH AQBAR AL_QWEEFER.

Death to the infidel H2

Death to capitalism

Long live communism and bycicles

July 23, 2007 7:57 PM

Anonymous said...

The cost of rising gas prices does not just effect the cost of a commute, but the cost to keep a big house and maybe with a big lot that will need care. And whether some people continue to live in their
big houses far from work, some will want to save the energy cost and move to something smaller closer to work, That makes people's houses that living further away for work (and shopping and families, etc) less valuable. I believe that is what we are discussing. I have seen estimates where the price of gas will go up a dollar a gallon for the next several years. If that is the case, people will live noticeably differently than now.

Anonymous said...

great hp story!

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12176803

burn baby burn!

anagama said...

2007: We're running out of oil, buy a Prius now or you'll be priced out forever

Same lies, different liars, same gullible fools buying the snakeoil


Peak Oil is not about running out of oil, it is about attaining the peak amount of production, i.e., the point at which production no longer increases. After the peak, there is still oil.

There would be no issue if peak demand happened at the same time as peak oil. That won't happen of course, and increased production will not be available to offset increased demand. Then you get a rise in prices. Anyway, Peak Oil should not be confused with "running out". Running out comes long after the peak.

As for those who believe we should drill ANWAR and poof, problem solved, everyone knows the entire amount of oil contained there is but a drop in the bucket to our demand. Why not bank that for the time oil is $300/bbl or more? Why waste it now while oil is still so cheap?

Anonymous said...

I don't care how you look at it!

This country and the world run on oil...as of now, and until we find something else readily available and affordable shut the 'F' up drive what 'you' want and leave the rest alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Un-intended Consequence of Peak Oil.
******************************


First food prices climb, now, beer?

The trade-offs will be many when it comes to increasing ethanol production.

Corn production is being grown at warp speed these days to catch up with the demand for biofuels and keep up with the expectations for food.

Because of that, worry is brewing in Saint Paul.

The bulk of those concerns lie on the shoulders of Summit Brewing Co. President Mark Stutrud.

"Of course we are affected by the focus on ethanol production," Stutrud said.

Fields of hops and barley, the spice and soul of beer, are getting replaced with rows and rows of corn.

"We have a shortage in terms of total acreage that is put in for barley production," Stutrud said.

With more breweries and less barley, that can only mean one thing.

"Obviously the price has really driven up due to demand and that all really goes back to that supply and demand curve we learned in high school," Stutrud points out.

In just a couple of years, Stutrud says the price of hops jumped 40 percent, the price of barley malt 30 percent and even the cost of the keg, made of stainless steel, has gone up 40 percent.

Stutrud says the steel hike has a lot to due with ethanol as well since local steel manufacturers are getting incredible demand for their product to build new ethanol plants.

"Being in the brewing industry is becoming a little more expensive than what we thought of three years ago," Stutrud said.

And that expense has to go somewhere.

"In anticipation of what would be happening this year we brought up our pricing to the beer distributor about two and a half percent," Stutrud admits.

It certainly isn't as big a hit as we've seen at the gas pumps but it's another increase for another product that many people would rather not live without.

anagama said...

The question I have is what % of crude oil is refined and cracked to fuel consumer cars? I'm guessing it's around 50%.

It depends on the grade of oil/sulfur content. Light sweet crude might yeild 70%. Heavy sour crude is in the 50% neighborhood and some refineries can't handle the sulfur content.

Anonymous said...

When I last lived in an apartment, the cars in my complex were for the most part new, and flashy, BMW 5 series, Escalades, Hummers, a Porsche or 2. Then I bought a home and my neighbors drove Honda Accords and Toyota Camrys.

This notion of the Yaris driving renter and H2 driving home owner is the exact opposite of my experience.

area 51 said...

Read "Economics for Dummies", OPEC has little power to enforce reductions in output. Besides, today they announced an INCREASE. Where have you been? Sucking lattes in some Euro cafe?

PS, Don't think I could haul my trailer to Area 51 using a Prius, so I'll keep my gas guzzler....

Anonymous said...

A great solution to this would be if companies would give up their paranoid stranglehold demands to see their employee in the flesh at 8:00 every morning, and instead actually start investigating and implementing computer program networks that allow employees to work from home on their computers. A friend of mine is doing just that in her drafting job and is saving $100+ a week in gas and food. Seems like so many companies and people would benefit...

Anonymous said...

"I have seen estimates where the price of gas will go up a dollar a gallon for the next several years. If that is the case, people will live noticeably differently than now."

No they won't. The same end of the world scenarios were predicted for $2 and $3 gas. And holy shit what do you know, $3 came and went without anyone flinching. Oh sure people bitch and moan, but nobody is trading the Yukon in for the Civic and I doubt $4 or $5 gas will be any different.

High gas price hysteria was and is an MSM made event. Eventually expensive gas will simply be the norm and the story will go away. $4 gas will be here eventually and it will be as eventful as a rainy day in Seattle.

John S said...

"2008 - The United PNAC Regime of America with King GW Bush in charge"

Anon:
Please give us all a toke of what ever you're smoking. If you're fearful of an U.S. president seizing dictatorial power, I'd be a lot more worried about the Clintons getting back in. Or have you already forgotten the illegal "Big Brother" database that Hillary kept in the White House?

As for the rest of this drivel, I live 7 miles from work, well within bicycle range. But I bought a 300 hp two-seater sports car this summer. I figure it's my last chance to drive 175 mph before the gas is gone.

Anonymous said...

I'm going to begin carpooling next week... I'm currently renting in Mesa, AZ --- it's about 20 miles one way to work. It's pretty easy to figure that if even half the people car-pooled, we would lower consumption, but I still think prices would stay about the same. Do we really think that big oil works on the supply/demand principle. They would simply match supply to demand by adjusting output...

Roccman said...

Class your attention please...today we are gonna learn three words...the homework is to google them.

1) Carrying Capcity

2) Overshoot

3) Dieoff

For the "front rowers"...

Buy "Overshoot" by Catton...then read it..and read it again because when you are done the first time you will not want to accept the truth.

For you "back rowers"...look up the word "useless eater".

Cheers

Anonymous said...

"
And…democrats preventing domestic drilling in Alaska, Florida, California, etc. Democrat opposition to building new oil refineries. Democrat opposition to building nuclear power plants...hmmmm...seems to be a pattern."

...and that would help us exactly how??? So we can drive our SUVs maybe for another 1-2 years? Push off the inevitable just a bit longer? Get a clue. The oil age is coming to an end, you not gonna drill your way out of that one.

burn baby burn said...

Anonymous said...
"Come to DC my friend- there are people living in Pennsylvania who commute everyday"

PA to DC can be as little as 40 miles.

That is only 40 miles but it would take at least 90 mins to do it anytime of the day or week. If Maryland has a Footbal Basketball game and it could be 2 hours plus.
Enjoy.

Me 4 mins to the light rail by car. I get to ride for free. Saves about $6 in gas 20 miles each way 20 mpg and $3/gallon gas. Saves $4 dollars a day parking. Total saving $10 a day X 20 days =$200 dollars a month. It takes less time to get to work on the light rail I can do work or look out the window. The Parking lot is 4 blocks from office; light rail picks up drops off 4 blocks from office. For several miles the rail line runs parallel to the highway and I like looking out and seeing the people in their cars stuck in traffic. On the rare days traffic is flowing the train over takes the fastest cars. The speed is really deceptive. To be fair I do not think I would like it as much if I did not have a car and did not have the option drive. I would say I take the train 4out of 5 days. But when it is too hot or cold I drive.

Anonymous said...

==
The world has plenty of oil and energy. And we all know how the energy crisis of the 1970s ended - with a glut of oil for the next 20 years as people and companies (on their own) got more efficient.
==

Keep dreaming. The oil embargo ending made the energy crisis of the 1970s go away. This time around there IS NO END. That's why they call it peak oil. We're in the plataeu now and then it's all downhill from here.

Sure, people will economize. Then oil will get even more scarce. Driving a subcompact won't cut it anymore. People will move to hybrids. Then oil will get even more scarce. People will switch to plugins like the Volt. Then oil will get more scarce. Then people will yank the ICE out of their Volts or buy straight EVs. And I'm not even taking all the other effects of oil scarcity into account. Everyone has waited too long to prepare. Government will have failed us. Industry will have failed us. It's going to be up to individuals to jerry-rig and improvise their own survival.

Roccman said...

Keith said, "Long term we know we'll move off of oil and into renewable energy resources, but short term, we're screwed."

You are on crack.

Anonymous said...

Who want's to live in the City, especially in the Terrorist Target Cess Pool that is DC...EEEEE Gadddds....

I just want my McMansion, Bed-full of Dogs, Pool, yard, Vodka Tonic, and bunny slippers and I will die with a smile, while the world blows....Cheers!!

Anonymous said...

In Australia, many people drive these vehicles too, but nowadays they are considered idiots and posers, as the price of oil here has gone up significantly.
-----------------------------

they are thought of as idiots and posers here too.

TM said...

I think we'll see more of what is currently happening in Southern California. The outlying suburbs are rebuilding their old cores (or creating new ones) with mixed-use development and a walkable layout.

Increasingly, people drive to the train station (Metrolink in SoCal) then ride that to work. When at home, they drive to the above mentioned town center to do all in one shopping.

If this trend continues here and nationwide, I guess we'll see people still driving a lot, but not all that far, if that makes sense.

RJ said...

Many good points here! When I talk about urban condo developments, I'm not talking about downtown L.A. which would be the center of Dante's hell in a major collapse, but places like Brea in Orange County. Furthermore, I didn't say the burbs were irrevocably doomed. I said that without light rail they would become more isolated and would not be able to support themselves. Without the support of trucking, most places have a very limited supply of necessities.
Moving to the country is an option, but how long will those solar panels last without replacement? Are you going to be completely self-sustaining? I know very few people who even remotely approach the skill set necessary to live an 18th century frontier lifestyle.
Good link to the DVD "Who Killed the Electric Car." I believed the technology was limited because of the limited charge. A new technology coming on line might change this:
http://tinyurl.com/32jy8p

The problem is the electrical generation required. The energy demand of millions of these vehicles on our current grids would be unsustainable. We would also need to dramatically expand our use of nuclear energy. Put it all together:
1. walkable communities
2. drastically expand light rail
3. massive investment in nuclear energy
4. massive investment in electrical generation infrustructure
5. build demand for quick charge electric vehicles

The country would have to gear up for a WWII scale economic effort. I am skeptical that the political will exists or will exist before it's too late.

zoiks said...

True facts:

My daily commute is 4 miles, and for the last 5 1/2 years I've been going by bicycle. (Southern Cal.) It's all along a bike trail. I can afford to do this because I rent, and do so in the same city in which I work. Saves a lot of money in gas, car maintenance, etc., and gives me some exercise, lowers stress, etc. etc.

That said, I have two cars, a higher efficiency car and an SUV. The SUV is useful for certain things, and is better for road trips.

I may make a snide remark or two occasionally to those I know about the average American's inefficiency, long commute, etc. But at least they know I put my money where my mouth is.

Sad thing is my high federal and California income taxes go to pay for others' use of the freeway system. I get on the freeway perhaps 2 times a month.

Anonymous said...

==
1. walkable communities
2. drastically expand light rail
3. massive investment in nuclear energy
4. massive investment in electrical generation infrustructure
5. build demand for quick charge electric vehicles
==

And none of this will be addressed by the Bush administration while we await the end of his term. 18 months of wasted time to look forward to.

serindippity said...

Marky Mark - agree, the Dems screwed the pooch on the supply side by not allowing new refineries and drilling. The Republicans screwed the pooch on the demand side by not allowing fuel economy standards nor encouraging conservation and renewable energies.

It is the oil industry which hasn't wanted new refineries. Too expensive and risky---and if there is going to be real peak oil (the oil companies know it), why bother?

They HAVE increased existing refinery capacity the equivalent of 10 entirely new refineries over the last 10 years or so.

The restrictions on drilling offshore in Florida and California will turn out to be the greatest unintentional decision ever made. We need to save this oil (and there's really not that much of it when you look at global demand) for our true Strategic Petroleum Reserve, that little bit that we still have in the ground.

If we had listened to the Republicans this oil would have been burnt up in some yahoo's pickup truck just to get 1.39 a gallon instead of 1.49. Big whoop.



It's better to use up the Saudi's & Venezuelan's and Mexican's and Canadian's oil first. I feel sorry for the Canadians a bit, but they'll come out fine. With peak oil and global warming and a low population, they'll soon become the wealthiest significant nation on Earth. Russia could be too if they didn't have a near fascist dictatorship. Venezuela too.

Re fuel efficiency? A catastrophe.

No, they're not making any more land, and they're not making any more oil.

But the land, and the McMansion, will still be there tomorrow.

Oil's gone.

serindippity said...

Read "Economics for Dummies", OPEC has little power to enforce reductions in output. Besides, today they announced an INCREASE. Where have you been? Sucking lattes in some Euro cafe?

Read Oil Facts for Not Dummies, aka www.theoildrum.com

Look at the high prices over the last 2 years.

Guess what was the all-time peak in crude+condensate (what is known as oil and not something else) production:

May 2005.

Until then, with much lower price, the oil production had been increasing quite steadily.

We're more than 2 years past peak production of oil, and prices have stayed extremely high persistently, and yet a large amount of new supply hasn't come on line.

All the right winger pish posh yammer about Economics 101.

Geology 101 beats Economics 101. Oil takes graduate Geology 517.

They said the same shit about Texas too. Oil price increased 1000% from 1971 to 1980. Oil production decreased 30%. There were no significant restrictions against drilling in Texas and they drilled Texas like crazy. Decline would be worse if they hadn't.

M King Hubbert predicted Peak Oil in Texas/lower 48 USA back in 1956.

Peak Oilists aren't drinking latte's---they're taking shots of the hard stuff.

Vladimir Putin toasts his fortune being the dictator of the #1 oil producer (Saudi Arabia is in decline) with nuclear weapons in the era of peak oil.

The USA was once the planet's #1 oil producer with nuclear weapons from 1945 to the 70's.

(Eurofags don't drink latte's either, they drink proper coffee. Latte's are a weak morning drink for children; they sneer, as they should, at the fat American mall mommies sucking down their 600 calorie lattes)

Anonymous said...

That is only 40 miles but it would take at least 90 mins to do it anytime of the day or week. If Maryland has a Footbal Basketball game and it could be 2 hours plus.
Enjoy.

============

Oh yeah MD football games on Saturday really affect M-F commutes. Moron.

Anonymous said...

1990s hoax: Y2K

2000s hoax : Peak Oil

Same liars, different lies, same gullible fools falling for the lies.

Anonymous said...

The technology to overcome the "dependence" is, and has been, available for almost 100 years.

http://tinyurl.com/l4nd9

Wake up

------------

LOL. Hey stupid. It's not just vehicles that use oil....just about EVERYTHING nneds it. Look around you moron. The fact is when the oil runs out, we are going to have to trim the humanoid population by about 80%. That's right 80%. You won't have a choice either. Think there is enough land mass to extract ethanol from crops...think again. I could go on all day with data but it's no use for 99% of you sub-humans. You can't comprehend what is coming.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
who works 20 miles away from home? I don't, can't think of anyone I know who does. This commuter who spends hours upon hours in the car every day is a myth

-------------------

It's amazing how stupid you are.

Keyser Soze said...

Peak Oil - I can't wait.

1) Americans could cut down their energy usage by 75% and barely notice.
2) Automakers will produce 100mpg vehicles
3) renewable energy infrastructure will be built... in earnest
4) public transport...ditto
5) no more easy money for the terrorists(this includes Bush)
6) less fat-assed Americans

Peak Oil - I can't wait

Anonymous said...

What requires oil? Here are some of them.

http://www.scansystems.com/downloads/oilfacts_rgb.pdf

When the price goes up, everything else will also. Have fun now because the next 25-50 years are going to totally suck. Unless we can eliminate 80% of you.

james dean said...

Just got done talking to 2 boomers in my office.

First, the lady princess who drives (barely) this big SUV by herself to work everyday and clogs the underground parking garage with her overly large monstrosity was talking about how great her ride is. I thought - hmmm, no shame at all.

Minutes later, we were discussing vacation rentals in mid-September and how expensive they were.

I joked 'But wait, GW told me illegals keeps the price of hospitality services low.'

I got no smile, no empathy, no giggle. I got the cold sholder. I guess I was 'being negative' even though I was attempting to arouse laughter (and MAYBE some free thinking about the lies associated with the amnesty agenda.)

Typical boomers. No shame, no responsibility, just 'be positive', think good thoughts, enjoy the bounty of their own excesses with no consideration of the affects on anyone else.


I am ready to work somewhere else. I will gladly watch them starve when our generation takes power.

Anonymous said...

Did you happen to notice how many of the democratic candidates at the debate on monday raised their hands when they were asked "How many came on private jets"?

The Hypocracy of these 'cut your carbon footprint' bunch!

You are going to tell me to cut my driving, while your flying around in the most inefficient way!

Anonymous said...

The world has plenty of oil and energy. And we all know how the energy crisis of the 1970s ended - with a glut of oil for the next 20 years as people and companies (on their own) got more efficient.

Marky Mark


On their own? I guess you weren't around back then. There was a %55 tax credit for any conservation improvements you made. I put in solar hot water and heat with the help of those credits. Nixon enacted those credits. Nixon had his faults but compared to Bush he's a saint. I also remember Carter's failed policy. At least he TRIED to do something. Bush has done absolutely nothing that might reduce profits for big oil.

Mammoth said...

Keith said, “I know many people that live 1 to 2 HOURS away from their work.”
--------------------------
And I am one of them – living on the west side of Puget Sound and commuting via PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION via bus, ferry, and vanpool. When Peak Oil hits, public transportation will be how everyone will move from point A to point B.

Yes the long commute sucks but the pay scale difference between jobs in Seattle vs. what is available locally means the difference between just scraping by and being able to feel secure by socking away a lot of $$$ for the future.

Somebody on this thread already pointed out that it is more practical to live near arable land than to live near a city’s many amenities.

Living on 2½ acres with a couple of ponds & a stream running through it, with a very productive garden and some fruit trees outweighs the negative effect of having the long commute. In a few years, after the house is paid off there won’t be a need for the above-mentioned difference in pay, so the commute will go away.

And if the sh!t ever really hits the fan, the moat (i.e. Puget Sound) will keep most of the desperate masses on the Seattle-side of the water.

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

used to live in the us and pretty much had to drive. now i live in the uk and work from home. i use public transport (usually to get to the mountains for hiking) and it isn't cheap but i save a bundle on not running a car. not nearly enough to make up the difference in housing costs mind.....

Anon E. Moose said...

Keith;

The guy in the picture isn't the "dick+head", he's working for a living pumping gas. Notice the "Mobil on the Run" uniform and the name badge on his shirt. Also the Hummer pictured has NY dealer plates; which I suppose is why the dealer is filling it up with regular unleaded, not super (green pump, not blue). If the dealer was really being that cheap, they wouldn't pay extra for full serve, so they were probably buying gas in New Jersey, where self serve is illegal. The price for mid-grade being $3.42 seems like Jersey too; in New York City it would be higher. Putting regular in the tank for test drives seems counter-productive, so this was most likely the "free fill up" the dealer gave when delivering the car, which was stored across the river on a lot Jersey City. The environs of the picture resemble the depressed area surrounding the entrance to the Holland Tunnel between Jersey City and lower Manhattan. That's just my guess, I could be wrong.

Anonymous said...

You think the 'boomers' are bad at running things?

Just wait til the Xer's take the helm. This is without a doubt the laziest, most arrogant,
self-centered, self-serving bunch to come down the pike!

ME ME ME ME ME ME!!!!!!!

Boomers built most of what you bitch about!

Greed knows no bounds! They'll have it too!

burn baby burn said...

Oh yeah MD football games on Saturday really affect M-F commutes. Moron.

Grow a set and stop posting anon you little bitch. Also check out my blog and then you will think twice before you call people names. I am the last person you want to piss off.

Anonymous said...

Peak oil will result in the absurd 19th century work hours and arrangements we have finally going into the scrap heap.

We live in a knowledge economy, but still have long commutes from affordable places to live to absurdly overpriced central cities (or cheaper remote office parks). 9/10ths of the work people do can be done in a home office, with flex time, and commutes eliminated entirely.

For situations where face-to-face is necessary, why not rent out office space by the day and save the cash (and commuting time and energy bills)?

Oh, of course, it's because many employers are interested in being dictators who monopolize the time of their employees and don't trust them to do decent work without some silly glass palace and regimented hours with a boss breathing down their necks. Well, those companies are going to have trouble attracting and maintaining employees to fill those fancy glass office towers, since it's not viable to pay employees less than a decent wage in an expensive area where housing is in short supply and costly, the only option to get around is dangerous and infrequent "public transit," and employees spend time commuting equivalent to 33% of their actual productive hours on a daily basis.

Things will definitely change.

Anonymous said...

You think the 'boomers' are bad at running things?

Just wait til the Xer's take the helm. This is without a doubt the laziest, most arrogant,
self-centered, self-serving bunch to come down the pike!

ME ME ME ME ME ME!!!!!!!

Boomers built most of what you bitch about!

Greed knows no bounds! They'll have it too!

**************

What can we say, we learned from the masters. In all seriousness, I recognize the efforts previous generations have gone through to get us where we're at, but times are changing, and a new generation needs to step up and lead that change, just like the boomers improved on things developed during the Industrial Revolution.

The world is going to belong to us at some point, so better to share your knowledge the best you can, then enjoy the ride. And better hope none of us figure out how to run cars off Soylent Green, padre... ;)