July 26, 2007

It's almost sad to read REALTROLL(TM) and Desperate Homedebtor comments. Sad that there are some people who still just don't get it, and never will.

You know HP'ers, there are some people who either don't want help, who don't want to listen and learn, and who are simply lost. There is nothing we can say or do to help them, they're just going to play out their roles as lambs to the slaughter.

Hey, we tried.

But I sometimes try to delve into their minds, to try to understand how they could be so ignorant and stubborn, ignoring mountains of evidence, and having no desire to understand economics or human behavior.

* Who do they think are going to buy all these unwanted and unneeded houses and condos, at prices detached from the fundamentals?

* Why do they think people would pay significantly more to own than rent, given that the promise of future appreciation is now dead?

* Who do they think will make up the slack, now that the speculators have fled, and new loans are tougher and tougher to get with the subprime and mortgage meltdown?

* Why can't they see that the Late Great Housing Bubble was built on the back of fraud, lies, spin, speculation and greed, and that those days are long over?

* And bottom line, why are they so blind?

Amazing. But hey, iPhones are selling! So home prices should be fine!

39 comments:

Patiot said...

But this is a Government "of the people for the people". So why would they lie?

Anonymous said...

Well, when I got out of my deal with Countrywide, I asked the realtor the same question, who is going to buy these houses, the mexicans? And she was quick to reply, practically salivating as she said, 'yes, but they won't be eligible until they have lived here for two years'..I think they are all counting the days on their calendars.

Anonymous said...

So you're telling me iphone sales don't determine housing prices?

Youre nuts!

Budvar said...

Yes but the dow is up, so the economy must be booming!!

I read this on the Mogambo site the other day, " "Specifically, under Basel II, a broker-dealer must set aside just 56 cents in capital to hold US$100 of triple-A-rated securitizations." Yow! Fifty-six lousy cents?"

Full article here under "Road kill"
http://feeds.feedburner.com/TheMogamboGuru

So let me get this straight, the dow is leveraged at a ratio of about 200:1, so the Pompous Prognosticator "Dopes" here thinks the reason it's rising in price is because of excellent fundementals, and these companies are making money hand over fist? Right!!

Dopes, might I suggest you invest every last dime you can get your greasy little hands on, and get yourself a shitload of dow shares, the way I see it, you can't lose!!

For further "Pompous Prognosticator" quotes see here.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

Anonymous said...

LET ME SEE.....

YUP!

JUST WHAT I THOUGHT.

NOTHING!!!! ANOTHER DAY AND NOTHING!!!

SOME CRASH!


DOPES!

Anonymous said...

GREED & IGNORANCE

The Thinker said...

Keith, what makes you think we have seen the end of greed, lies, fraud, easy credit and speculation? I still see Countrywide commercials on TV advertising zero down and interest only loans.

Stringer said...

But but... I just took out a HELOC to buy a boat....

Anonymous said...

Anom said:'yes, but they won't be eligible until they have lived here for two years'

LauraVella said: Is this new news We're hearing? and what's this two year thing all about?

borkafatty said...

With bond prices moving down and the market moving up (well up and down)
Anyone else get the feeling we are 20 years in reverse IE: 1987...

If bonds turn lower (as they very well could because of the weak Dollar) I would take that as the first sign of caution. If bonds break below their June lows I would take it as a MASSIVE warning.

westwest888 said...

Last night a REALTOR who showed me some houses in Georgetown a year ago called me, as a follow up. He sounded defeated. I said that I was passively looking. He acknowledged that "a lot of people are waiting to see what happens with subprime and stuff." I agreed and thanked him for staying in touch. Sad, really. He was a nice guy about my age.

Anonymous said...

I just got a raise for my min wage job - so life is good.

NO SH*T sherlock said...

"In his first network interview since leaving the Republican Party in June, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg told ABC's Robin Roberts that America is in a dire state."

-- NO SH*T sherlock

Ron said...

Listening to Bill Handle on KFI this morning and you would think he walked right off the forums of HP, Housing Bubble, etc. I was shocked that he was just pointing out the obvious and how much trouble we are really in. It is officially game on time now, and this will be ugly as ugly gets, it will be only worse now from the lack of attention this needed not unlike Iraq facts and other important news stories like the lies of Bush and his treason against the Constitution and his oath. I mean you got people pushing off the dock in their dingy looking at the perfect storm coming in, who are just oblivious to the facts and the basic economics of it all....who say it will correct 20% max...with no reason other than this is what they "feel". I love these morons, they use "feel" for everything Iraq, candidates, economy, etc...no facts no history just their gut instincts like the Coward in Chief. They get everything they deserve, they get their political facts from know nothing propagandists who over simplify major problems into sound bites that they can parrot by the water cooler. They listen to RE agents to get their housing information, and when you call them on either you are the fool for believing the facts. They are ass clown followers with out a clue about history, or basic logic, just knee jerk morons who blindly follow and make decisions from conjecture and speculation.

Done...let the bodies hit the floor.

Kenduffelsniffenspotzen said...

Everyone should be so fortunate as to have read "Conquer The Crash" by Robert Prechter.

I think that every generation has to make the same mistakes as their grandparents.

Mark in San Diego said...

Actually Iphones aren't selling as well as expected, but since United Airlines had a good quarter, the housing market must be in great shape. . .

During the 1930's depression

- Movie industry did very well
- Radio networks/stations did well
- Aircraft manufacturing actually did pretty well (the new DC3)
- Airlines made money (protected by airmail subsidies and introduction of new DC3)
- Bevery Hills did well selling movie star houses

Bet if HPer's ask their grandparents, we could come up with a longer list. . .

BUT - unemployment was 25%. . .The bottom line - there are always bright spots in a depression, so don't get excited about Iphones, UAL, etc.

Anonymous said...

The painful part of this story is that it was all predictable and preventable.

Girl Guide said...

I own a store. An elderly customer came in today and told me she was trying to make enough money to make her house payments by selling yard sale items on EBay. She is trying to make ends meet on just social security.

She said, "NO ONE WILL BUY MY HOUSE. LAST YEAR I COULD HAVE GOTTEN $180,000 FOR IT. I HAVE IT LISTED AT $150,000 BUT I BET I CAN'T GET $100,000."

She is most likely right. A realtor came in yesterday and told me that there are 1100 houses in foreclosure in this small town of 50,000 outside of Ft Myers. She said," Business sucks."

Yep. That about sums it up.

westchester chick said...

There is one troll that's been hanging around lately that seems slightly more educated than the others - I've often wondered if it was Keith just playing Devil's advocate - though I think even he would make up a handle. Some people have really made out in this deal so they don't see how any of this is bad or how their children or grandchildren may never be able to afford to buy unless they die and leave them an inheritance. It seems obvious that they don't live like 80% of this country that can't afford to buy a home that costs 8-10 times their annual income or that there are people that need to sell their homes to pay for catastrophic events. But what surprises me is that there are still a lot of people that buy into the whole concept of having to own. It's kind of like the whole having to get married thing. Last Sunday the NYT RE section had a little blurb about 3 couples looking for their perfect places - One of them had been married 2 years living in NYC in a 2,700/mo rental - Get this - the realtor (apparently a family friend) asks them if they're sure they want to buy something since they have rent "that cheap" - but they feel they really want to own that $700K 1 bdrm with monthly cc probably close to their original rent - go figure! It's true this will be bad for all of us - but I think a fair number of people come to this board for info and really just want an affordable place to live not necessarily a way to generate income. I try not to even respond to the trolls - my feeling is what comes around goes around.

Batman said...

Maybe they should look at this week's ticker. I know what little I have still in equities is getting pummelled. No investment class seems safe this week except cashola.

Sh1t, the US dollar even went UP. I guess that shows how crowded the doorway is under the EXIT sign.

Trevor Cordes said...

Perhaps worth its own topic:

I thought of a neat little game to play with the latest homebuilder earnings reports. Want to *prove* that new home prices will be lower in the next 1-3 months? Take an individual builder's HOMES CLOSED $/house ratio and compare to their NEW ORDERS $/house ratio. This gives you a perfect picture of how the mean price will be affected in the next few months new home sales data, assuming most/all of the builders numbers head the same way.

Case in point, D R Horton (DHI):

CLOSED 9643 for $2470.5M = $256k /home
ORDERS 8559 for $2028.8M = $237k /home

So in DHI's immediate future, mean home price will drop 7-8%, virtually guaranteed!

Anyone care to dig out the numbers for the other builders and make come up with some aggregate number? My guess is DHI is indicative of the whole industry.

And as all HP'ers know, existing home prices must eventually follow. Watch the panic when existing mean Y/Y goes down 8%!

Anonymous said...

Ignorance is truly Bliss!

Anonymous said...

"Amazing. But hey, iPhones are selling! So home prices should be fine!"

I remember that post. Now that was funny!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

you guys are such losers.

people are still making money.

the end is not here.

so sad that you sit there getting off on doom and gloom.

L O S E R S

Anonymous said...

Answer to all of the above:

They read Forbes so they're up on the latest mind fuck pr spin.

Anonymous said...

I like to watch CNBC on days like today......Midday and the market is down about 300 points. Ah the wonder of it all. You look at the boob toob and what do you see? The talking heads talking and trying to explain it to us. The one common thing you notice is the sour pusses on all these commentators. These chear leaders for this lie known as the markets look like someone has pissed in their cornflakes....Ah too bad....

Anonymous said...

Dont worry Karl Rove, that great american patriot will save us

borkafatty said...

you guys are such losers.

people are still making money.

the end is not here.

so sad that you sit there getting off on doom and gloom.

L O S E R S

---------------

Welcome to the L O S E R S club
D I N K! We may be losers for seeing the writing on the wall but rest assure most who seen this coming are ready for the great contraction that is upon us....then and only then will we see who the real loser is...HAHAH! L O S E R!!

sam said...

[i]you guys are such losers.

people are still making money.[i]

No doubt. And trust me that I'm making more money than you are, bitchboy.

RJ said...

Is it just me, or have the number of Trolls on this blog declined?

Anonymous said...

>>>you guys are such losers.

people are still making money.

the end is not here.

so sad that you sit there getting off on doom and gloom.

L O S E R S<<<<

hey pal, i got your loser....

Anonymous said...

wow! black friday on thursday.....if this keeps up it will be more fun than october 1987......

Anonymous said...

I'm the one who got out of the deal wiht Countrywide. One more thing, my realtor was bragging about how she had $47,000 on 6 credit cards. All 'investment properties'.HAHAHAHAHAAHAHHA...........actually felt so bad for her I prayed.

Anonymous said...

They might get it after today's spanking

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Based on the massive market selloff that is DIRECTLY related to the housing crash, you would have to be totally, completely stupid to not realize what's happening.

On the bright side, some realtors I know back in Scottsdale are finally waking up and changing careers, although in the Phoenix area there aren't many career opportunities outside of real estate. I'm guessing a lot of people will be moving out of there to different cities just to get a decent sales job.

www.scottsdale-sucks.com

TM said...

LET ME SEE.....

YUP!

JUST WHAT I THOUGHT.

NOTHING!!!! ANOTHER DAY AND NOTHING!!!

SOME CRASH!

----------------------

You were saying?

Shakster said...

Trolls seem to have missed a very important point about HP,and blogs like it.
Nobody in the mass media pounded home the Idea that a bubble could exist.The government didn't,the banks didn't,and realtors didn't.
The proof is in the pudding so to speak.The blogs were the place to come to to find out if buying a home in the last 3 years was wise.
Not only did they get the correct information about the bubble,but bloggers dug up the ugly truth about R/E,brokers,and banks.(thanks to dedicated economists around the globe)
These blogs are winning.Not just winning.They are rolling over trolls,shills,the MSM,and any other ignorant group of Market spinsters.
The satisfaction is in the gratitude from would be homebuyers,and FBs that have minimized the damage,or sold their home before it was too late.
On a side note,Any crashes on wall street are frosting on the cake.

graphrix said...

"you guys are such losers.

people are still making money.

the end is not here.

so sad that you sit there getting off on doom and gloom.

L O S E R S"

Yup my HOV puts are up 567% since I bought them and up 30% today. My VIX calls are up 350% and I had to take some profit on them today. If that makes me a loser then I am a profitable loser. How much did your house go up this year?

Anonymous said...

People shorting the market are still making money. Check out HRB. The deal for Option One will fall flat on its face. Cerberus couldn't even get the Chrysler deal through the debt markets. Who would want to hold the Option One bag knowing what's inside?