Good youtube video from faux news' business gurus from 2006 on what was expected for housing prices in 2007.
Two of the guys hopefully have found new lines of work. Not only were they wrong, but they were jackasses. Must have been homedebtors themselves who were long REIC stocks.
And as always, Peter Schiff is the man.
31 comments:
Peter Schiff is the other coin of the long haired dude in the clip. Both of them at the extreme end of the spectrum with their own self interests at hand.
I think Ben Stein was more or less right. The correction will last several years but in 10 years prices will be higher.
That was like watching dumb frat guys argue with the debate club champion
The douchebag with the pretty smile needs to be "talked to" about his shitty attitude. He reminds me of a spoiled brat who's never had to work. May he be sodomized in federal prison before this thing, uh...bottoms.
I Googled Tom Adkins and Mike Norman, the two "uber" bulls in the segment.
Tom Adkins portrays himself as a real estate broker, but was more well known for writing articles with a conservative agenda. Apparently there was a conflict of interest issue on Fox, because he was married to Brenda Buttner of the "Bulls and Bears" segment. Yet they kept bringing him on in various segments, continuing to spew his blather.
Mike Norman was a former trader and broker, worked for Merrill Lynch as well as several of the exchanges. I just watched a Youtube video on the Biz Radio website on his bio page. I never watch Fox News, but apparently he is a perpetual asshole according to the video. He is a god in his own mind.
I don't know. If my job was to boldly lie to everybody and receive six figures a year, I guess I could do it. That's the thing, how much money would someone have to give me to become a whore. How does that old joke go? Its established that someone is a whore just quibbling over the dollar amount.
The one long haired guy seemed like he was on crack though. I couldn't stand listening to him.
Here's the thing, if the public is armed with the facts (which government distorts and special interests lie about), then the situation is not debatable. But rarely can the public put 2 + 2 together anyway. So they can easily be swayed by whores.
Like I said before most of the people think earth is a hollow ball full of oil. If we have shortages its only because we aren't drilling more. The sheeple NEVER take consumption into consideration. We really deserve a die off. Actually I think sheep are smarter than the general populace (especially the trolls on this blog) so until we find an appropriate substitute sheeple will have to do. I favor stumps as in tree as a better moniker.
I know Peter Schiff has got a big following around the internet, but people need to recognize that he is not a brilliant economist. He is primarily saying all this stuff to drum up business for his firm which, guess what, makes money by sending its clients assets out of US dollars.
Sure there are some problems with the US economy. We all know about the overvalued housing. We really need to do something about the national debt problem and our off balance liabilities there. Maybe is a bit higher than the government admits, maybe the economy will take a downturn, but it wont be an "Economic Collapse".
There are a lot of fundamental strengths that he completely ignores.
1) The research and development base in the US is gargantuan. Noone can hold a candle to it. Foreign engineering firms like Siemens send huge amounts of money to the US to do R&D work. Everyone from Japanese cell phone companies to European automakers sends money to the US for engineering. This base is tremendously valuable, it is much harder to get a well educated R&D base than it is to throw up a few factories.
2) Sure, foreigners own a higher percentage of stuff in our country now. But guess what, we own a higher percentage of their economy too! You know why virtually every big foreign company has an ADR on the NYSE? Its because Americans own a significant percentage of those companies.
Now lets review some of the advice he gives:
1) Buy gold. Guess what? Gold has a credit bubble as well. Central bankers loan out imaginary gold to various vaults which then sell you the imaginary gold. If peter schiff is right and its all a house of cards buying gold from these vaults wont help you.
2) (I heard this one listening to his radio show once) He says hes putting his clients in high dividend basic material producing stocks in canada. Specifically timber, natural gas, etc. Well guess who the biggest consumers of those products from canada are. How can he be saying buy Canadian timber companies and the US housing market will collapse all at the same time?
There is some truth to what this guy is saying, but he vastly overstates the problem. Its pretty obvious he is screaming it from the rooftops because he wants folks to open up brokerage accounts with him.
They were also predicting we'd be greeted as liberators
") Buy gold. Guess what? Gold has a credit bubble as well. Central bankers loan out imaginary gold to various vaults which then sell you the imaginary gold. If peter schiff is right and its all a house of cards buying gold from these vaults wont help you."
I agree entirely with what you're saying here, but there comes a time when everyone has to pay what they owe.
If they can't deliver, they have to cover their shorts.
If you buy gold, take possession of it, paper gold isn't worth a toss.
Housing prices are under attack on more than one front.
Inventory - high and as far as I can tell it continues to climb in most areas; no surprise there since there is a rather large part of the present workforce in the shelter building industry.
Tighter credit - since very few buyers buy with cash and most rely heavilly on credit, tighter standards and higher rates will make for fewer buyers - especially the higher standards. Wall Street is starting to understand the old saying "when you owe a million to the bank, you don't sleep well at night - when you owe a billion to the bank, the banker does not sleep well at night".
Fraud - large problem that has so far eluded the MSM in their coverage. Law enforcement is cracking down but guess what? For everyone of these clowns that they bust, that means one less "buyer" in the market.
Speculative buyers hitting the exit ramps - the smart money left 18 - 24 months ago and even the dim witted, glass perpetually half-full, rainbow chasing idiots are starting to get the message.
Immigration bill d.o.a. - that is going to take out a lot of potential base level buyers nevermind your views on immigration or illegals or brown people or whatever. On a strictly number of buyers basis, this is taking out potential buyers at the base of the property pyramid.
Sideline sitting tight wads who know the fat lady is singing and who frequent H.P. - those bastards squeeze the sh*t out the buffalos on their nickels and they are spreading their lies and turning people against real estate just so they can buy a shack at 2.50 times annual earnings and have a place to live without having to give blood to make ends meet. They are ruining it for everyone, damned them! ;>}
Smug Bastard
The Tin Foil Hat Wearing Fool
"There is some truth to what this guy is saying, but he vastly overstates the problem. "
Uhhhh, dude, there are about $1 TRILLION in subprime mortgages ALONE that will reset over the next year. That's not even counting all the other horrible ALT-A, Neg Am, Interest only, and other very risky prime loans that are completely untenable financially to the people who got them.
You cannot POSSIBLY overstate the gravity of the problem.
And, as he says, the only way to save the housing market's nominal prices will be to quash rates which will kill the value of the dollar. Then, as he says, inflation runs wild.
I don't think he said anything on that clip that was far fetched at all. Sadly enough, he is most likely correct.
Grandfather Bear say all white face speak with forked tongue.
Comanche scalp long hair white face very soon.
Re: Peter Schiff:
"There is some truth to what this guy is saying, but he vastly overstates the problem. Its pretty obvious he is screaming it from the rooftops because he wants folks to open up brokerage accounts with him."
Yeah, he's trying to drum up business for his company, but the least you can say for the guy is he's "right". 9 months ago people were pissing on themselves about buying homebuilder stocks, and he said they'd be disappointed. He's been suggesting gold for years, and guess what, it has risen quite substantially in that time. He's been warning for 3 years of problems in mortgage lending, and he's been right. He's been recommending non-dollar denominated assets like conservative dividend-paying companies abroad, and he's been right.
Lot more truth spewing out of Mr. Schiff than from those other clowns. Like Mike Moore when he told us before the Iraq War that the WMDs were fictional. Unpopular, yes, but right nonetheless. Credit where it's due.
Fox New is such as fukin joke.
And as always, Peter Schiff is the man.
This month I signed up for an account with Euro-Pacific Capital. In the box on the application where I heard about them, I put:
housingpanic.blogspot.com
"I think Ben Stein was more or less right. The correction will last several years but in 10 years prices will be higher. "
In the normal up/down cycles Ben is used to, 10 years would be correct, but Ben at this point, doesn't know the magnitude of this bubble, so 20 years is closer to correct
Funny....when you click on the Tom Adkins link in several news articles concerning him you redirect to a Re/Max website displaying "file not found" I then searched Re/Max for Tom Adkins and found a hit in Fairlawn, NJ. (Faux said he was a GURU from Pennsylvania.) The NJ Tom Adkins has no pic on his site! Realtwhores would put their picture on shitpaper if you let them. here is the link to his bio page
http://www.tadkins.remax-nj.com/remaxnj/modules/agent/agent.asp?p=professionalprofile.asp
Blank. I am confused, is he trying to hide or is it a different guy, and the GURU has already disappeared.
I would like his email, so I can bag on him mercilessly, as the fall guy for the fallout. Fallout Boy!
Well, on to Mike Norman
Re: Jorghis
"1) The research and development base in the US ... to get a well educated R&D base than it is to throw up a few factories."
Yeah, but US engineers are fat, lazy and week. And, honestly, not a numerous as you may think. Russia has 10 times as many trained engineers, if not more, and they're all lean and hungry. The only think preventing their engineering hegemony is the language barrier, which an American company (google) is about to remove for them. Then, floodgates open and everybody in the US is working at MickyD's.
"2) Sure, foreigners own a higher percentage ...Americans own a significant percentage of those companies."
When people talk about ownership in a geopolitical sense, pieces of paper mean nothing. Posession is 9/10ths of the law son (see next bit) and the state that has functioning industrial capacity can easily take it over as required for national interest, while a state with nothing but paper claims to the output capacity of other states cannot survive a situation which needs legislated production requirements.
"1) Buy gold....buying gold from these vaults wont help you."
Well, DUH. Paper gold is an even worse investment that a stock. Physical metal, on hand, is the only way to invest in metals. They are not a speculative play - they are a long term (>200 year) store of immutable wealth. Same thing holds true for other, industrial metals. Speculative fools cause wild day-to-day price fluctuations, and there's a lot of paper out there claiming to be backed by metal that doesn't actually exist, but a big bag of silver and gold coins at the foot of your bed is an unquestionable universal security. Trust the pirates, they knew what they were doing.
"2) (I heard this one listening to his radio show ... buy Canadian timber companies and the US housing market will collapse all at the same time?"
Speaking as a Canadian, I agree that you're right to disagree with investing your financial reserve notes in attempting to control our national resource base. When the revolution comes, those will all be given back to the native population and your wall street ticker tape sale reciepts won't be worth the paper they're printed on.
Loan officers who work for a Tacoma mortgage company that told state officials in May it was closing say they continue to go without pay.
One employee filed a lawsuit in Pierce County Superior Court on Monday, others have submitted wage claims.
All Fund Mortgage remained open Monday but company officials could not be reached for comment.
Last week, executive vice president Paula Hatton said that only company President Chris Dunn could speak to the media but that he was out of town. Dunn did not return a call Monday afternoon.
Loan officers waiting on months-delayed checks say they can’t pay their bills and are facing ruined credit and foreclosure.
California couple Lindy Pine and Devin Rusk, who’ve sold All Fund loans for more than three years, filed a $27,000 wage claim in June.
Pine and Rusk used their credit cards to make recent mortgage payments and have incurred late fees on cards they couldn’t pay on time.
They say they are owed for loans completed in April and May. All Fund, in a packet given to new hires, says it pays commission within 48 hours of a loan’s documents being complete.
“I was really hoping they would be honorable and pay us what’s due. I kind of in the back of my mind am still hoping that,” Pine said.
The Pacific Avenue company employs loan officers around the country who say All Fund holds the licensing they need to make loans. At one time, the company had more than 200 branches.
In 2005, All Fund was ranked No. 477 on a list of fastest-growing companies by Inc. magazine. Then-company president Richard E. Ardmore told the magazine the key to growth is going after top salespeople.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/
business/story/101712.html
that guy tom atkins sounds like he's retarded. he also looks like a COMPLETE tool. yet, he probably makes a lot more money than I do.
I hope this recession comes soon. not like I'm going to be spared, but in a world where guys like that get a forum to give advice I'd rather live the aftermath of the financial-holocaust.
Ben Stein is wrong dude. Prices are so far out of line FL, NY & LA is will be 10 years before we hit a bottom.
He says hes putting his clients in high dividend basic material producing stocks in canada. Specifically timber, natural gas, etc.
The fossil fuels are pretty nice -- it'll takes quite a few years for the glut of SUVs in America to work their way into the junkyard. Plus, fertilizer is made from natural gas so even if we go to bio-fuel, the grains or seeds will be grown with fosil fuel fertilizer.
Canadian Royalty fossil fuel stocks pay monthly, usualy 1 to 1.4% per month (at least the canroys I have). Of course, the share prices got hammered last fall by a deceptive Canadian govt, but the word is that when tax advantages evaporate 4 years hence, the oil/gas companies are likely to change structure and become foreign private equity targets. This has embittered more than a few of our Canadian brothers.
Of course, the share price has been on the mend recently and is about where it was before James Flahrety (minister of finance) pulled his trick. January and February were great times to pick up shares.
Anyway, kinda risky I suppose but worth looking at. And with a weakening dollar, the dividends are fatter.
I think its great that you can point out the douche-bag blow hards strictly by their sense of style. It makes for faster pick up on the BS-radar. Thanks for dressing like you think douche bags!
That's something right out of Idiocracy.
Wrong they were....but how about all your economic calls??? Dow 8,000 anyone??
"Uhhhh, dude, there are about $1 TRILLION in subprime mortgages ALONE that will reset over the next year. That's not even counting all the other horrible ALT-A, Neg Am, Interest only, and other very risky prime loans that are completely untenable financially to the people who got them.
You cannot POSSIBLY overstate the gravity of the problem.
And, as he says, the only way to save the housing market's nominal prices will be to quash rates which will kill the value of the dollar. Then, as he says, inflation runs wild.
I don't think he said anything on that clip that was far fetched at all. Sadly enough, he is most likely correct. "
1 Trillion in loans resetting is not equivalent to 1 trillion in losses. First of all when a 200k loan resets the bank doesnt lose 200k. They can sell your house. And theyve been collecting payments up until the point it gets foreclosed on so its not a total loss. Realistically they are looking at about a 30% loss on a house that gets foreclosed on including worst case depreciation and the fact that they homedebtor has been making payments. Given that most loans will not go totally bad and that those that do you only lose 70%, overall we are only talking about a 10% loss or 100 billion dollars. A problem? You bet. A complete economic meltdown? Not likely.
Quote from Ben Stein in 2006:
"Gold will NEVER hit $500 in my lifetime."
Well Ben, you're WRONG again.
NEXT...
Anonymous said...
Ben Stein is wrong dude. Prices are so far out of line FL, NY & LA is will be 10 years before we hit a bottom.
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Agree with you on Florida...but the job market & growth in LA in NY will help deflect some of the dropoff. Those areas will still correct, but nothing like Florida...just look at the vacancy rates in Fl compared to NY...then look at the number of units about to hit the market.
jorghis
Because you don't italicize or bold who you are responding too I would have to go back through the whole thread to see which are your comments, HOWEVER if you said this:
Given that most loans will not go totally bad and that those that do you only lose 70%, overall we are only talking about a 10% loss or 100 billion dollars. A problem? You bet. A complete economic meltdown? Not likely.
Then I would say, why isn't this website helping you to see the whole picture? Maybe you've already read one or two threads and that's it?
With the bulk of the ARMS adjusting coming up you think the only repercussion is a loss of 100 billion dollars and banks will simply absorb that, no problem?
Back to the end of the line for you!!! The domino effect, laundry list is as long as my arm.
Spend a little more time thinking about the results of an ARM adjusting to the common homeowner and some light bulbs might come on. Don't forget how difficult it will be to refinance because of already plummeting home prices.
Then figure on the spending habits of a consumer before, during and after an ARM adjusting/foreclosure.
As I said, a LOT of dominoes involved.
"Ben Stein is wrong dude. Prices are so far out of line FL, NY & LA is will be 10 years before we hit a bottom. "
I think Ben is wrong only on the timing issue because he underestimates the amount of time that will elapse for the riskier mortgage debtors to go into default, foreclose and then sell from the lender/owner.
Guy Daley:
From an economic point of view it doesnt matter too much if the subprime people stop their consumer spending spree. They werent spending that much to begin with relative to their upper middle class peers. It will make some difference for sure, but the lower class tightening up on spending wont trigger an "Economic Collapse".
Its kind of funny that you would tell me I dont get it. In real life I am usually the one trying to convince people that housing is way overvalued.
Great article (http://www.newshounds.us/2006/01/28/ever_wonder_why_tom_Adkins_deserves_to_be_on_bulls_and_bears.php#more) and associated video on YouTube showing the stupidity of Tom Adkins (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc) and his ridiculous assumptions on the real estate market for 2007 from last year.
I am an avid follower of Peter Schift--as well as other more clued in analysts/economists/investors such as Jim Puplava, Doug Casey, Bud Conrad, etc-- who is also a frequent Fox News, Bloomberg, CNBC, MSNBC financial commentator and is how I stumbled upon the unsavoury character of Tom Adkins.
Turns out, good ole Tom resides in my neck of the woods and I recently had the dis-pleasure of meeting the moron at a political fundraising dinner a few months back. The fact that this long-haired meat head gets airtime on Fox News further erodes the credibility of this Media Mega Monster's lack of objective reporting.
I would only add that yes his ability to get airtime on Fox News is solely the connections with his new wife. Got to wonder what the hell Brenda Buttner was thinking when she even entertained the idea of going out with this locker room bully in the first place, much less marriage?
Additionally, it should be noted that when Tom is confronted by overwhelming intellect from his opponents, he makes it up in character assault backed up with threats of violence. I would really hate to wind up on some lonely and dark back alley with this guy following a heated and lively debate? I mean the guy is nothing short of a thug.
In summary I liken his overall style with something my grandfather use to tell me years ago: "If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance then baffle them with bullshit!". Sums up Tom's intellectual capabilities in a nutshell don't ya think :-)
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