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July 19, 2007
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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44 comments:
I've been getting ready but I need more time!
Beware the Black Swan!
Jymkata
YES, I am ready!
.........for what?
Just remember, bring a clean pair of underwear with you when it happens!
When it happens, you'll know why!
im in CD's. 0% stocks. liquidated 401k to cash last week.
as long as only RE/stocks tank and the dollar is 'ok' im ok.
i do need to fill the garage with TP though as a backup to my dollars.
I'm ready for another round of stock market records.
I'm ready with funds available for housing prices to fall another 33% so I can flip some more houses.
I'm well stocked with Top Raman and duct tape.
I'm ready for the new illegal criminal border crosser employer sanctions to take effect in Arizona on Jan 1st.
Im ready.
I just want it to start full tilt, I got enough popcorn for years!
Phuk no,I'm never ready.I adjust on the fly.
Finally! Dow finishes above 14,000
5:47pm: Investors cheer IBM, other upbeat earnings news
Nah, cause most of the $ that I have is stuck in 401K's where no matter the fund(s) that is chosen, they all do the same thing. And, it is not a simple matter of just moving it somewhere else, I have to get forms and send them to the administrators- complete bullshit! It's my fu*king money and I want it now god damn it. Any suggestions on where to move it- I was actually thinking that if I withdraw now and wait 60 days to re-deposit into an IRA, well, I just might miss a crash.
August rate increase by BOJ seems likely. Ouch! This could be a tipping point.
USD CHF JPY
Thu, Jul 19 2007, 14:06 GMT
by Erste Bank Bond Research Team
USD hits new low
Swiss franc firmer than expected
Yen remains weak against EUR
US dollar
Bad news from the US mortgage market (downgradings by rating agencies) had the EUR/USD rate soar above 1.368, hitting new all-time highs. Technicals have thus deteriorated for the dollar and the US mortgage market still bears risks. We have therefore revised our forecast and expect EUR/USD to climb as high as 1.4 in the course of the 3rd quarter.
We consider any rise above that mark unlikely, however, and expect to see some consolidation at this level. For the time being, worries about the mortgage sector and mortgage-related securities are certainly a major factor contributing to the dollar’s weakness. At the same time, it also reflects downside risks for the economy including interest rate cuts, which should gain further momentum and thus continue to weigh on the dollar. We expect the Fed to take action in 4th quarter. Recent labour market data have made a rate cut before the end of the 3rd quarter appear unlikely. With only two more sets of monthly data due for release before the quarter’s last interest rate decision, an about turn in monetary policies has become unlikely during this period. Speculations about some loosening of monetary policy should intensify during the coming months, however. EUR/USD should surpass the level of 1.4 only if investors pull out of US securities (mortgage loans) on a massive scale.
Swiss franc
The Swiss franc appears to have lost some of its appeal to borrowers. Statements made by representatives of the Swiss National Bank following the last rate decision and on later occasions clearly suggest that the current EUR/CHF rate of about 1.66 is felt to be too low. And there is indeed nothing in the fundamental situation that would qualify as grounds for such weakness. All segments of demand report high growth rates. Domestic demand is supported by a steady decline in unemployment and continuing high propensity to invest. Exports are also recording healthy growth rates against the backdrop of the strong expansion in international trade.
If the franc fails to stabilise and, in due course, to recover, the National Bank is clearly threatening to implement further rate hikes. A rate hike in September appears to be as good as certain. Some are even forecasting a 50bp rise at this date, which we would consider exaggerated, however. What we do anticipate is a narrowing of the spread to the euro if the franc fails to embark on a slow recovery. Short-term, the franc should therefore settle within a range of 1.64 to 1.66. In the medium run, we expect it to return to a band width of EUR/CHF 1.50 to 1.59.
Yen
During the past two weeks the yen has gained some ground against the US dollar. It firmed from USD/JPY 124 to currently below USD/JPY 122. This movement is attributable primarily to the softening of the USD versus the major currencies. Against the EUR, the yen has kept weakening, approaching EUR/JPY 169 a few days ago. It is currently again trading at around EUR/JPY 168. As had been expected, the Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its July meeting. This time around, the decision was not taken unanimously, though, but was passed by a majority vote of 8 to 1. Meanwhile, the BoJ is working on the assumption that until March 2008 producer price inflation should come in higher than projected in the semi-annual economic outlook published in April. The Bank has reiterated its forecast for consumer prices, however.
We expect the next raise of the overnight lending rate by 25bp to 0.75% for August, which is now in line with the market consensus. Based on price trends alone, there is at least currently no immediate need for the BoJ to carry out further rate hikes. Comments made by representatives of the BoJ indicate, however, that there is a readiness, in principle, to raise rates further. We still do not see any fundamental reasons for the weakening of the yen against the euro. As before, the predominating factors appear to be speculative financing schemes, the volumes of which are closely linked to uptrends in other markets – as, for example, equity markets – as well as yen interest rates. As it is difficult to project when the carry trades will finally stop, any further weakening of the yen cannot be ruled out. The more yen loans are outstanding, the more pressure is building up which, if sentiment changes, will strengthen the yen. We expect that in the medium run the yen will be able to hold its own against the euro.
Freddy.
like Mercury.
We'll be six feet under.
In debt.
Anonymous Trolls should find this funny------------ More financial trouble for the former, high profile Bakersfield real estate duo, "Crisp and Cole."
29 Eyewitness News has learned the primary residence of realtor David Crisp is in default. Public records show Crisp's Seven Oaks home on New Quay Court" is $52,000 behind in payments. The two-story, 30,000 square foot, Southwest Bakersfield home was purchased by Crisp for more than $1.7 million in March 2006.
Meantime, we have learned, Crisp's former partner, Carl Cole, took a big loss on a home he purchased in January of last year. The home, on Durand Oak Court in the Oaks, was bought for $620,000. Just last month, it sold as a short sale, for just $405,000 meaning the lender took a loss of $215,000.
This news just one month after word of an audit investigation by the state of the former real estate duo crisp and cole.
Story Created: Jul 18, 2007 at 8:13 PM CDT
Story Updated: Jul 18, 2007 at 8:20 PM CDT
-----------------------------------
34.6% splatter .I know ,it's the only shortsale in Amerka so who cares.Wonder who the Idiot was that bought it at 405,000bucks.Getting closer to that 45% crumple zone.
I need more lube!!
Yes I am read,y vote for Hitlery Clint"lock"tondown nation for the next president of the United states of stupidity.
Ron Paul 2008
I don't know if you can get ready for this one. That being said I am glad my father was a gun collector.
Sequoia512
Ready for what?
Rent is keep going up, and house price does not come down. Specially here in OC where the latest report says the median price is in the record territory again.
CASEY HEADING TOWARDS DIVORCE
I didn't know where else to post this. I got this first-hand from a family law attorney's secretary, Casey's loving wife is pricing divorce, and her boyfriend (yes, she's been cheating on Casey, can you blame her) may let her move in with him. Whew.
You heard it here first.
i couldn't be more ready, but getting tired of waiting. The markets can move sideways longer than I can stay solvant. Get on with it already. I'm right!, now give me my fucking money, then all you piece of shit free loadin Baby Boomers and your worthless Latch Key kids can go get a real job for once in your pathetic Googlin lives.
Almost.
I bought a sailboat in May and am refitting it. It will be done in the fall:Solar and wind electric generation, fresh water maker,MRE's, fishng capability, mobile, totally offgrid living. I'll keep my job for now, computers, but I'm upgraiding my skills to fit a downgraded society.
debt + debt = liquidity(wealth)?
peak oil!
These guys have screwed the pooch for all of us.
good luck all.
Ready for what?
Keith,
Really good video from Bloomberg called "Subprime Shockwave".
A must see.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v0OR3iFv14lg.asf
let's see here:
wood screws, putty knife, bucket of spackling compound, flesh tone paint, and six, angry feral cats.
yep, I've got everything I need
I was just reading "Rick's Picks". He uses a hidden pivot method to initiate buys and sells, and says it's possible the Dow could go as high as 17,300, but that it's not likely. Rick forsees a major stoppage in consumer spending because a homeowner with a 6% mortgage who's house has fallen 3% in value (70% of the U.S.) is now facing a 9% payment (read his commentary for the exact wording).
17,300 sounds possible because the U.S. needs to attract foreign investment. What better headline grabber than record Dow close after close? Of course to feed the market Bernanke will continue his neglect of the dollar. And with real estate prices falling that provides deflationary pressure to counter the inflationary pressure occurring in oil, food prices, etc.
Grey swan:
Hezbollah is itching for a rematch, this time with Syria to recapture the Golan. Syria has bigger missiles than Hezbollah.
Black swan:
Musharraf is getting closer to being overthrown by crazy fundamentalists.
I'm getting heavier in oil stocks every day.
Looksee, china has 11.6% fucking growth. Love that eliteocrats rsansferring all our technology and production to benefit them.
And just look how much democracy all that capitalism has made! Now your family can pay for your execution bullet on credit cards!
Peak Oil == Peak Western Civilization.
The central banks can keep printing money for a lot longer than you HPers can hold your collective breath waiting for "the big one". Don't you realize the system is totally rigged? In-duh-vidual investors are the canon fodder for this crowd. Your pathetic E-Trade accounts and 401Ks will be washed away like dried piss off a tile floor.
When the time comes they will fob off their bad paper on the taxpayers, and Bernanke will dutifully print whatever is needed to cover the shortfall. They will continue to live, play, and retire in style, while Joe Average pays $6 for gasoline and $5 for a loaf of bread.
You are fools if you think they haven't already war-gamed and compensated for your bear market mutual funds and bullion purchases. They make the money and the rules suckers.
Time to buy AA and AAA rated MBS. I hear they aren't making any more of those.
Hahahahahahaha.
Seems as though the banksters and all their henchmen have all taken Viagra, now its time to pay the piper. How the hell am I ever going to be ready for this. Hey Gentle Ben take it easy with me. Anybody have an ass size bandage I can borrow?
ready for the new Harry Potter???
anon said
"And just look how much democracy all that capitalism has made! Now your family can pay for your execution bullet on credit cards!
Peak Oil == Peak Western Civilization."
-----------------------------------
Good point. China is transforming from a communist to a fascist state. And they are scrambling for every drop of energy they can exchange for weapons, infrastructure development and financial support of dictators. They're outplaying us at our own game using our own money.
I'm not ready yet. I'm almost completely out of debt and need to purchase emergency supplies but can do that in a reasonably short amount of time.
I'm out of stocks completely. Too many variables. Too many things can go wrong very quickly. And it's way too dangerous to try and short the market. Yes, the markets can be pumped for a long time, expecially with foreign dollar reserves. But all that paper profit has to be sold/dumped to cash in. As one anon put it,"Don't you realize the system is totally rigged? In-duh-vidual investors are the canon fodder for this crowd." What's coming is a pump-and-dump on a grand scale. A massive wealth transferance that will drain what little is left of the assets of the middle class.
I start my new recession/
depression-proof federal job in two weeks.
Still need to liquidate my IRA. Think I should hold out on that for another month?
no, no house but still too much debt from school...trying to pay it down as fast as possible...
Damn right I'm ready! Last season's American Idol sucked BIG time! I'm ready for the new season!
I've moved 90% of my retirement assets to stable value and I've dropped my retirement contributions through the floor to 2% my earnings. Right now it makes more sense to pay down debt than it does to take long positions in stocks - because it's an outright gamble subject to a 25-50% correction. The writing is on the wall - GOOG profit growth slows and it loses 8%. Caterpillar gets hit by rising commodity prices and a huge drop in North American sales (who saw that one coming HP), loses 8% in a day. It's coming everyone. These stocks are overvalued and even good news (but less good than last time's news) sends them plummeting.
And where we're really going to fall over the edge is when companies start defaulting on their debt. Remember when Sam Zell bought Tribune at the beginning of the "flip-this-corporation" mania? Well now the company has $13,000,000,000 in debt and the credit markets are giving it 50-50 odds of EVER being able to pay it back as a going concern. That would be fun. Break it up and fire sale off all of the TV stations, sports franchises, etc.
Since everyone hates the Dollar so much...As a stand up citizen in these United States I would be more than happy to take the burden and remove all those nasty dollars from your person...mailing address will follow .
Finally! Dow finishes above 14,000
5:47pm: Investors cheer IBM, other upbeat earnings news ****
Listen Ass clown as I try to explain this to you. Stocks are just like anything else. They increase in value because of a little thing called "inflation". So, if the price of stocks increase because of inflation then why wouldn't the stock market break 14,000? There is too much being read into the Dow numbers. The Dow is only an indicator of a few blue chip companies. Standard and Poor is a much better indicator as it represents a bigger pool of companies. Having said that, keep in mind that Standard and Poor is down at least 10% from its peak in 2000.
A million dollars on black.
Bulls and bears eventually win, but scared money never does.
Yes I am ready...
I got an iPhone
RayNLA
Locked and Loaded
http://tinyurl.com/yo7rr4
Article ends w/ "Its a building boom in the middle of a housing bust"!! No one can truely be ready for this as it unwinds!!
"Since everyone hates the Dollar so much...As a stand up citizen in these United States I would be more than happy to take the burden and remove all those nasty dollars from your person."
Hey Borkfatty, wait 12 months and visit an EU country - they'll have rolls of Benjamins for you in the restrooms. Be courteous and wipe with Franklin's face on the hand side.
Various homebuilder and WaMu puts. Cash is for sissies. Considering some JPM and C puts.
Perfect setup today for Black Monday next week
Its time to crash
And your absolutely right it is not Sub-prime it is the fucking ARMS that are killing people.
My local county just updated their Foreclosure list every single foreclosure was a TOXIC ARM some of the paper that the shepple put their John Hancock on is beyond comprehension.
Non the less everyone was an ARM! and everyone was originated between 04/05...as far as I can see the fun is just beginning for some.
TO:
"the other guy said"
Good for you, you get a C- for lesson 1 in Econ 101. Stock prices (indexes) rise partly due to not BECAUSE (yes you said 2x it was the cause) of inflation. Even if you're right, then the DOW sounds like the perfect hedge against inflation. International stocks would protect you against dollar weakness as well.
And WTF is wrong with the DOW? It's outperformed the S&P for a while now.
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