July 18, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Simple question really...

Are people REALLY this dumb?

Why?

How?

Is there anything we can do to help?

63 comments:

Anonymous said...

Germany tried it and the world rebelled, so we just must use dumb people for slave labor.

anonymous wimp said...

Of course they're that stupid.

Home values? Hell, half or a third of Americans can't name the vice president.

westwest888 said...

I've got a good quote from my coworker, who is a recent homeowner, in response to something I cited:

"What's Toll Brothers? You mean the people who make cookies?"

I don't think we're at "denial" yet, because to deny something you have to be aware it's happening. Denial might end up being VERY short for this country, like a week.

Anonymous said...

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article2.aspx?
cp-documentid=5124742

Las Vegas up 1% Q1 2007

Los Angeles up 4% Q1 2007

Miami up 11% Q1 2007

What a crash!! Oh I know it's all lies. PMI is part of the MSM/Bush/Greenspan/Bernake/Fox/Walmart conspiracy

DOPES!

Anonymous said...

This is from a month ago.

james dean said...

Yes, they are. I am amazed at the masses of financially unsaavy people, about to make the biggest purchase of their life, with seemingly no regard for what is happening in the housing market.

A fool is born every minute. To quote Men in Black: "A person is smart; people are dumb panicky dangerous animals and you know it."

Anonymous said...

>> Is there anything we can do to help?

2 words: bumper stickers

Like "Only a moron would buy a house today" or "Got Rent?"

Anonymous said...

housing starts up 2.3%....you idiots were saying

Anonymous said...


July 18 2007: 7:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. mortgage applications rose last week.The Mortgage Bankers Association's home loan application index climbed 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted 631.6 in the week ended July 13.


Yep nobody's buying homes anymore.

Anonymous said...

Hey, that must be the HP troll!

Anonymous said...

I know Keith, you put up this thread because Ben Bernanke is due to speak today. Bernanke is going to look into his fogged up crystal ball and say the sub-prime problem is contained. The markets then rise 300 points to a new all-time high.

But the truth is, Bernanke has no idea where the sub-prime meltdown is going. This will become obvious to everyone in due time...

Anonymous said...

NO, BUT YOU ARE!
SOME CRASH!
HERE IN THE NORTHEAST THINGS ARE STILL THE SAME, AND PRICES ARE STILL GOING UP!

ECONOMIC COLLAPSE!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

DOPES!

Anonymous said...

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From USA Today 7-18 Housing construction up 2.3% but permits fall to a 10 year low.

This is exactly the kind of news HP'ers should want to hear. Sounds stupid - builders adding product a an already large inventory??? WTF????

They are liquidating their positions on land they already hold by sticking a "home" on it and then placing same for sale. As more of these shacks come up for sale, prices will move lower because the builders are going to discount the crap out of these places in order to move same. As they scale back their permit activity (sign of future construction), land prices will come down. The demand is drying up (as well as the cheap and easy financing) and they know same. Builders rode this coaster up and they are going to be a major force in bringing the coaster down the slope. IMHO - note, do NOT buy any shack constructed this year or during the past 18 months. IMHO, the odds are high that these shacks have been put together quickly and with the least amount of care so that the builder can save time (and money).

Housing was not much more than a baby boomer led craze (Greatest Generation [yeah right - my ass] spawned the Dumbest Generation). Not much more than a glorified Hula Hoops craze and the builders were a modern day version of Whamo! toys.

I wonder what "thing" the Dumbest, Groupthink Embracing, Jackass Degenerate, Least Self-Sufficient, Generation will go for next? They remind me of a damned bait ball in the ocean.

Smug Bastard

Vantucky Cajun said...

NO! Ditech tells me that people are smart!

Anonymous said...

borka!

Anonymous said...

No. As this blog has shown, they are being fed bad data, so make bad decisions. Emotions and groupthink play into it. People are dumb, but they are not that dumb.


"Yes, fish think...but not fast enough!" - Severn Darden.

The Thinker said...

I think there is a large minority of people who are ill equipped to avoid the trappings of our modern capitalist society. Giving them access to credit cards and interest only zero down mortgages amounts to giving them rope to hang themselves with.

I still believe that the majority of people know how to function properly, but the majority is certainly narrower than it should be.

Anonymous said...

simple answer- NO, just greedy! Root of all evil my friends.

Anonymous said...

That post isn't about Jim Cramer is it? The picture a bit like him!

Anonymous said...

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hey, half the population is below average intelligence. Unfortunately it seems like the below half is who we have as elected officials.

mrmx said...

no, people aren't dumb, they just thrive on stimulation. i.e. while being in debt sucks, it helps people stay focused-- unless they're casey. fortunately, I don't need debt to structure and give meaning to my life!

Vectorz said...

Yes, sheeple are really that dumb. I used to have the mentality of never over-estimating the general population, but now I realize that was my flaw. Never OVER-estimate the general popluation.

Anonymous said...

Help?

Help by taking their $$$$.

Just like P.T. Barnum advised.

Shakster said...

Another important reason that "AAA" will crash.
The cons that shuffled these investments to obscure there true ratings also Rated most of the AAA tooo high.SP,and Moodys did their part on the investments as packages,but Lenders did their part on the Individual loans that make them up.Some guy with a BK 3 years before cleans up his credit rating,and although he is the same guy(prone to finacial trouble),lousy job(can't really afford it),his credit is AA or better.So what we maybe looking at in reality is that all of these investments are only true bbb rated.So AAA is sunk,it didn't exist in the first place.Inventory is gonna double again.

Anonymous said...

They all have their heads in the sand . The best thing to do is to call them out on it- I do it whenever I get a chance.

Stephen said...

People were smart enough to conduct their own financial affairs unitl two things happened:

(1) Our currency became bastardized to the extent that simple investments like savings accounts could no longer keep up with infation, and

(2) People started routinely living into their 80s and 90s, and having 30 year retirements that they had to fund.

It takes some measure of sophistication and commitment to stay in front of manipulated markets and currencies. Unfortunately, an IQ of 100, and a proclivity for reality television is not a boon for those who are now required do it.

Anonymous said...

People live a finite amount of time. They were never taught, or they didn`t listen that houses(or cars or whatever) would not bring them happiness. So they continue onward, trying to fill the empty space inside them. What to do about it; Have them look back at their great grandparents and see what they did to find fulfillment. I bet it wasn`t buying a bunch of crap all the time.

RJ said...

Yes.

Don't read. Don't stay informed. Don't have an economic clue.

Can't help 'em. People learn through experience.

Anonymous said...

They are even dumber

Anonymous said...

Simple question really...

Are people REALLY this dumb?

Why?

How?

Is there anything we can do to help?


Nope. Unless we start genetically engineering ourselves to get rid of the chlorine in ye old gene pool, get ready for several thousand more years of moronic decisions and poor judgement.

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Judging by the trolls who post here, yes, they really are that dumb.

Johnathan said...

The low standards of the educational system. The romoval of Civics being taught in school. AND, the era of "no responsibility" for ones actions. So the answer is NO! there is nothing that can be done.

~J

p.s. please forgive the suspension of the do not start with AND, BUT, or SO...

Anonymous said...

What's stupid is the assumption by HPers that the Fed and politicians will let this whole thing unravel, and bubblesitters will be proved "right" in their avoidance of mortgage debt.

The USD is on the verge of falling 20%, perhaps even 30%. That is in the cards and IMO it's already been approved in negotiations between the major central banks. With that in mind let me outline a scenario that would make most Americans happy.

Step 1) Emergency wage and price controls are enacted under some guise of national security. This will be especially easy if we have a sudden dollar collapse or a serious terrorist attack.

Step 2) A new currency is issued where one New Dollar = three old dollars AND, all old debts are fixed and payable only with New Dollars. People would be tripping over themselves to turn in their old currency or convert their holdings. Foreign bag holders will be screwed, but the biggest ones already know that.

Step 3) Prices for existing, unsold inventory are allowed to adjust upward upward by some formula that doesn't screw too many businesses. This is where banks and businesses will see a return on their campaign contributions.

Yes, this would cause turmoil and pain, and many foreign goods would triple in price. But in one fell swoop the government would cut its debt burden by 2/3, and most FBs will be able to struggle through their bad decisions without facing the poorhouse.

Anonymous said...

Go all cash now. Before u get the surprise of your life.


THE RATINGS GAME
Punk Ziegel analyst says sell the brokers now
Dick Bove sees hedge fund meltdown at Bear Stearns as a systemic problem
By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:06 ET Jul 18, 2007


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dick Bove, an analyst at Punk Ziegel, cut his ratings Wednesday on the five top U.S. brokerage firms to sell, and said the apparent meltdown of two hedge funds run by Bear Stearns is likely an industry-wide problem.
"I do not view this as a Bear Stearns problem, but a systemic one," Bove said. "This opens investors to sizable losses which, at this moment, simply cannot be calculated."
Bove downgraded the following stocks to sell from market perform: Bear Stearns (BSC : The Bear Stearns Companies Inc
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 139.91-0.40-0.29%

8LEH73.06, +0.26, +0.4%) and Merrill Lynch (MER : Merrill C52.46, +0.27, +0.5%) to market perform from buy.
"My favorite stock has been Citigroup, but even this issue is vulnerable if the financial shock I see coming happens. Investors should continue to hold the universal bank stocks and buy them at later points. The brokers should be sold at once," Bove wrote.

Anonymous said...

'The Mortgage Bankers Association's home loan application index climbed 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted 631.6 in the week ended July 13.'

If you would have bothered to read the entire article you would have seen that those applications are for REFINANCING not for buying. The applications for buying were actually down. That doesn't even include people turning in multiple applications these days in hope to find a sucker somewhere.

Anonymous said...

"Miami up 11% Q1 2007"

???
Not sure where you get your numbers from but the Miami figure is definitely wrong. Maybe the median went up 'cos nobody is buying $300K slums around here anymore. Only in the upper market segment is still some activity, the lower end is completely dead.

Anonymous said...

9:24....WOW....you must be a lot of fun at parties.

Hey don't insult the Monkeys said...

Yes Keith they are that stupid. Consider this Annon:Anonymous

Las Vegas up 1% Q1 2007

Los Angeles up 4% Q1 2007

Miami up 11% Q1 2007

What a crash!! Oh I know it's all lies. PMI is part of the MSM/Bush/Greenspan/Bernake/Fox/Walmart conspiracy

DOPES!

Miami up 11% Q1? What sales, volume from one month to the nest what are you talking about Annon? Really if MSN has it must be true? there is no data to support this for example. Nor do people get that if a 11 million mansion (formerly listed at 15 million) is sold to a rapper in miami beach it drives up the mean for the entire areas price for the area..... Median since 2005 in say Miami has dropped 13% and is dropping more. Plust you consider these are nominal non-inlfation adjuted prices... Does the annon know this? Of course not. Clearly has not read a paper or know about CDOS, sub-prime mess, end of easy credit and continued declines admitted by all major investment bankers, story of HUD begging chinese to bail sub prime out, yep they are that stupid........

Its complicated and the schools are bad.... said...

Left Atlanta and moved to Melbourne Australia. Have a pal in Ft Laud. He is so happy to have lost only 10% from his house. He is so happy he still has "value" in it and goes on about the 300k eequity he has maintained. Course he has no job as its Florida and he was let go of his 60k job. He thinks it all going to be fine and he can refinance. Now I have tried to no avail to explain, hey man Aussie Dollar and all other currencies have climbed against the dollar. I am up 18% in just 6 months! Sooo, dollar declining, wages constant and even if you only lose 10% of the nominal value of your house you are hosed in 5 years. Will he get it? No. He is one of millions. Nice guy but likes the easy life and the self delusion associated with it.

sam said...

"HERE IN THE NORTHEAST THINGS ARE STILL THE SAME, AND PRICES ARE STILL GOING UP!"

Hey, you must be the dude who bought my house out for a 700% profit loan after my 6 years of happy ownership.

How's it going? How's that 80/20 loan working for ya, anyway? Still paying 10%? You know what's funny- even though I'm a renter, it's almost like you're renting from me! We're kind of connected like that. I know it may be difficult to understand, but where do you think the interest on that $450k note goes every month? Thanks for that.

Take care of the place, will ya. And, keep livin' the good debtor lifestyle. Make sure to drop me a line in 30 years telling me how it went (or sooner, if you need some quick pre-foreclosure cash).

PS. You actually got deal compared to the crap some of your fool neighbors bought. Trust me- I saw the Mexican's slapping the crap together in the dark. They are dumber than you.

RJ said...

There are two types of trolls on this blog.

The first constantly makes the mistake that every little uptick in housing starts or mortgage apps nullifies the overwhelming data that the housing industry is in a massive downturn. When orders are down 30% yoy for Lennar and DH Horton (which has suffered a 25% drop in share price this year) times are bad. However, there are going to be buyers all the way down the slope because someone will always think the market has bottomed long before it actually bottoms.

The second type of troll really believes that the global financial powers that be can prevent a major global economic collapse when that collapse will be due to global energy shortages, not incompetent management of the financial markets.

FYI, Goldman Sachs reported that global oil production is down 1 million bpd while global demand has increased by 1 million bpd.
Switching to a new currency, which is nothing more than a form of refinancing, will not create oil rigs, drill wells and transport and refine crude or natural gas.

Anonymous said...

The human brain has not evolved since the Stone Age. Most people are at least trainable, but the PTB (corporations, robber barons, their politician lackeys, the MSM) are quite adept at keeping the general populace ignorant, brainwashed, and addicted to vacuous pop culture and consumerism. Stupid people tend to have lots of kids, while smart people tend to have few (or none), so things are only going to continue to get worse as the negative selection kicks in for future generations.

robert said...

Anonymous said...

“July 18 2007: 7:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. mortgage applications rose last week.The Mortgage Bankers Association's home loan application index climbed 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted 631.6 in the week ended July 13.

Yep nobody's buying homes anymore.

July 18, 2007 12:42 PM



Mortgage applications climb
July 18 2007: 7:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. mortgage applications rose slightly last week as a jump in refinancing demand overshadowed a drop in demand for loans to buy houses, an industry group said Wednesday.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/18/
real_estate/
bc.usa.economy.mortgages.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007071807

robert said...

Anonymous said...
housing starts up 2.3%....you idiots were saying

-Woes deepen for home builders
Housing starts unexpectedly rise in June, but applications for new projects slump to lowest level in 10 years; outlook grows more bleak.
By Grace Wong, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 18 2007: 11:04 AM EDT


LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- The outlook for the housing sector has grown bleaker after a key measure of builder confidence fell to its lowest level in 10 years, according to a government report released Wednesday.-

- The housing slump has dragged on as home builders have battled a decline in housing sales and prices while dealing with a glut of supply. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group, said its home builder sentiment index fell in July to its lowest level since 1991-

Kenduffelsniffenspotzen said...

westwest888 said...
I don't think we're at "denial" yet, because to deny something you have to be aware it's happening. Denial might end up being VERY short for this country, like a week....
------------------------------------
Here in Green Bay the only people who are aware of any sort of problem are those trying to sell or rent a house.
So, yeah, we aren't even in denial yet.

Anonymous said...

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson declares: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."

Anonymous said...

>> But the truth is, Bernanke has no idea where the sub-prime meltdown is going. This will become obvious to everyone in due time...

That must be YOUR truth. And you are so naive to think that this is all happening by accident, carelessness or stupidity. Bernanke, just like Bush & Co., are all pawns. They're being told exactly what to do, because it's ALL planned out, to the smallest detail.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Vote for FMW!

Just one click away from
The "6 Degrees of Casey Serin to Jason Voorhees Winner" Vote Link,

Here !


Yes, FB's GF's and Fliptards are even more stupid than monkeys.

Don't insult the monkeys, Keith.

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA HA!!

IBM sales up up up

Dow over 14K

OC median prices at new all time high.

When do you all just throw in the towel and admit you were wrong? Come on, you whine like little girls that Bush doesn't admit mistakes, yet you keep living a mistake every day renting and investing in 5% cds.

Anonymous said...

Someone was saying something about recessions and depressions....


July 19 2007: 9:09 AM EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The number of new claims filed for U.S. jobless benefits fell unexpectedly in the latest week, dropping by 8,000 to the lowest level in two months, the government said Thursday.

Initial jobless claims for state unemployment benefits fell for the second straight week, dropping to 301,000 for the week ended July 14 from an upwardly revised 309,000 claims the prior week and to the lowest level since May 12, the Labor Department said.

Anonymous said...

Bernanke just said that home appreciation is equal to savings.

Anonymous said...

rj, you are a damn genius, I don`t know why anybody else even bothers to post. You make the complicated understandable (except for trolls)and you should be commended. My hat is off to you and many thanks. P.S. To the other posters, I enjoy the funny ones, but when it`s time to shuck the corn to the cob, it`s rj`s posts that I look for.

Anonymous said...

anon said
BWA HA HA HA!!

IBM sales up up up

Dow over 14K

OC median prices at new all time high.

When do you all just throw in the towel and admit you were wrong? Come on, you whine like little girls that Bush doesn't admit mistakes, yet you keep living a mistake every day renting and investing in 5% cds.
___________________________________

Let's see

GDP is growing at 0.7%

Housing in a massive downturn (16% of the economy)

Auto industry in a recession

Milk at $4/gallon

Gas at $3+/gallon, Oil at $75/barrel

US Government has $60 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities!

Debt service payments by consumers at record levels (as a percent of income).

Hedge funds and sub prime lenders failing left and right

The Dollar tanking massively against all foreign currencies (except the Yen).

Yup, everything is going great! I'm going to buy some Wal Mart stock!!!!!

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

blah blah blah

milk $4, blah blah blah

gas $3 blah blah blah

I see black helicopters in my backyard

blah blah blah

Anonymous said...

PS: milk at Sam's Club is $3.19. Stop shopping at Whole Foods and you won't be raped when buying groceries

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
anon said
blah blah blah

milk $4, blah blah blah

gas $3 blah blah blah

I see black helicopters in my backyard

blah blah blah

___________________________________

I guess you're right, after ignoring all the bad news - everything looks really good!

I'm going to go out and buy one of the 4.4 million homes for sale in the USA right now!

George Bush is the Greatest President in the history of this country!

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

"OC median prices at new all time high."

------------------

>> Umm... sure... let's see:

http://www.ocregister.com/money/median-sales-price-1770547-homes-market

Home price hits record
But the median of $645,000 in June may be distorted by slow sales and by a lack of buyers for lower-cost homes.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register

The median price for an Orange County home returned to record territory last month, but experts warned home sellers against popping champagne corks.

Sales were way down, making the month the slowest-selling June in two decades. Some said the record median home price likely is a distortion caused by the decline in sales and a lack of buyers for lower-priced homes.

June's median price for all residences was $645,000, or 0.4 percent above a year ago...

>> OK, so the distorted median sales price rose 0.4% in one year, below even the "official" rate of inflation. Sounds like OC home prices are falling, even if you take this median at face value. Oh, I get it, you sheeple don't understand inflation adjustment. Too "Baaad" for you.

the oc register article said...

http://www.ocregister.com/money/median-sales-price-1770547-homes-market

A couple of interesting facts:

* Sales are cratering:

"...Sales, however, fell to 2,641 homes sold, or 31.6 percent below a year ago. It was the slowest June in the 20 years DataQuick has tracked the market, and it follows the worst May on their books as well. The old bottom was 3,364 in June 1995...."

* Price per square foot is in freefall.

"...The median price per square foot fell by more than 5 percent for both resale condos and houses last month...."

Five freaking percent! Add in inflation (at least 6% per year if reckoned honestly) and you're talking about an 11% caning in one year. But Suzanne told us that real estate never goes down!! Hahahaha!!!

Frankly, I am surprised the OC Register is actually reporting this stuff. Though they did go with the misleading headline "Home price hits record." I guess that shows what the MSM think of their average reader.

Anonymous said...

anon said
http://www.ocregister.com/money/median-sales-price-1770547-homes-market

Home price hits record
But the median of $645,000 in June may be distorted by slow sales and by a lack of buyers for lower-cost homes.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
___________________________________

I saw an article just like this in our paper yesterday for the Santa Fe, NM market.

It basically said the same thing, median price up to a record high (nearly half a million in the county), but sales volume way down!

Again, only the high priced real estate is moving, everything else is just sitting there and the inventory continues to build.

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

...

I saw an article just like this in our paper yesterday for the Santa Fe, NM market.

It basically said the same thing, median price up to a record high (nearly half a million in the county), but sales volume way down!

Again, only the high priced real estate is moving, everything else is just sitting there and the inventory continues to build.

Jymkata

July 19, 2007 8:51 PM

-------------------

The Case-Shiller index tracks repeat sales of the same units and correctly shows home prices to be in decline. Add in inflation and the declines are getting pretty significant, especially places like San Diego... and San Diego is a pretty good forecast to what will happen in LA/OC in a year.

Anonymous said...

So according to HP median price going up in 2003, 2004, 2005 was a sign that the market was about to crash since there were too many sales. Median price up in 2006 meant market was about to crash because not enough sales.Median up in 2007 means market really is crashing because, well hell who knows why.

Prediction: 2008 median price will be higher than 2007 and Keith and Co will still be renting and spinning why they are better off instead of owning.

RJ said...

anon said
So according to HP median price going up in 2003, 2004, 2005 was a sign that the market was about to crash since there were too many sales.

----------------------------------

No, median price rising at a double digit rate per year was a sign that the market was unsustainable.

Thanks to the other anon poster for the support.
And good summary of the current situation Jymkata from NM.

One anon posted that milk at Sam's Club is $3.19/gal. The stock market rally was attributed, in part, to the robust retail sector. It's interesting that the portion of the sector that did well consisted of drug stores, discount stores and wholesale clubs. Everything else was in the negative. In other words, the U.S. consumer is economically stressed.

http://tinyurl.com/bsbcz

Anonymous said...

well, at lat, housing popped...

pumping large liquidity in to market - how much is enough to avoid credit crunch??

a lot, i think.

so world economic dive in to boom to ressetion?

credit crunch can hit housing 1st then to asset usually but this case hit same time?

how much was the over lending????