July 17, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Gotta be entering fear by now, eh?

Come on folks, work with me here!

93 comments:

Anonymous said...

Still in full denial mode. A friend just told me that his family took out an equity loan against their house in Sacramento. The bank thinks that the house went up in value again!

Anonymous said...

San Diego,

I see No Fear..................
....but plenty of denial to go around still!

Anonymous said...

The more the
so-called 'professionals' talk about finding the bottom, I realize how far we actually are from it!

We have a long way to go folks!

It's gonna get ugly!

bitterLArenter said...

well a friend of mine that bought in HB a few years ago has started to enter the fear stage, thinking that he may be lucky to get what he paid for it. I spoke to a contractor that does foundation work and he really thinks early 2008 things will pick up again in Texas(denial if you ask me) and I know a few people that just bought houses and think prices will keep rising(Austin, TX)- more denial. I think fear is just beginning.

Anonymous said...

We've got such a long way to go

Anonymous said...

I'm starting to see a little fear here and there by the smarter folks.

But Phoenix as a whole? They're way too dumb to be afraid yet. I'm not even sure if they're smart enough to be in denial yet.

Anonymous said...

Euphoria?

What people who bought at the top originally thought they were feeling.

Then when prices began deflating, they realized it was not euphoria at all, but rather really ignorance combined with greed.

Anonymous said...

case by case basis. It will deflate in the strangest of ways.

Anonymous said...

FB's = denial

realtrolls = desperation

lenders = panic

Anonymous said...

euphoria: greg swann

denial: home owners

fear: realtors, builders

desperation: lenders

panic: hedge funds

David in JAX said...

I believe we moved into fear in March 07 when the MSM started to report (finally) that there were problems in the housing market. If not, we will be there by September when the summer sales numbers are a flop.

tim73 said...

ARM resets will provide constant barrage of fire at prices well into 2008. Dollar is also very near of collapse. If that happens, living costs will kill the US consumer. Already consumer credit is increasing rapidly even when retail chains are reporting declining sales. Consumers are now spending more to MAINTAIN their standard of living.

Another thing to consider: Oil exporting countries have deposited about 750 billion dollars out of 1000 billion to EUROPEAN banks, according to Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Americans have no control over these dollars. So it is not only Chinese and Japanese awash with dollars...

Brian said...

Still in full denial mode. A friend just told me that...

These are the most entertaining posts, and usually on the 'cycle' threads.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

If they don't have fear, they haven't looked at the ABX. Off a cliff yesterday on AAA and AA on 2006 and 2007 vintages.The lower tranches are headed to zero on a rocket.FUGLY

Anonymous said...

100% in denial mode.

Anonymous said...

Why would anyone be in the fear stage? MSM keeps reporting about 2% price drops. Even if you bought at 2005 peak prices and the MSM says 2% loss and a turnaround is coming next month, there is no reason to have fear.

Long long way to go, I'm thinking laye 2008 maybe 2009 before the real fire sales even begin.

Anonymous said...

Seriously, I've started to see fear.

Most are in denial still, be were are quickly approaching the inflection point to fear.

Keyser Soze said...

Call me crazy....but those folks in Florida who bought townhouses for $300k, only to have the builder sell the same model for $145k, at a later date, didn't seem like they were in denial on that youtube bit. Is there a 'pissed off' point in that wave?

Anonymous said...

My old 'hood in Las Vegas:

House 1: Sold for $465K in 2005. Foreclosed in 2006. Just sold this week by bank for $371K.

House 2: Sold for $405K in 2005. Foreclosed January of this year. Bank listed it on MLS for $389K in March. Asking price is now down to $342K, if they get more than $300K I will be surprised.

This is real, on the ground stuff. Yet ask 100 people in Las Vegas about housing and 98 will say prices are holding steady and should start going up again soon.

D-E-N-I-A-L

Flagg707 said...

Still denial. Maybe a few pockets of actual fear in Florida or Denver, but denial abounds. Remember, HP is much closer to the facts and the research that shows just how rotten the foundation of this housing boom has become.

Folks won't enter fear until a full-blown 'mark-to-market' event happens where a bunch of folks start lowballing their prices and selling them for even less - and they watch as comp sales in their neighborhoods plunge and their loan goes underwater. Add that on top of the next wave of ARM resets and, well...

Until then, real estate always goes up and is the best investment ever.

Anonymous said...

JUST WATCHED YOUR YOUTUBE VIDEO FROM AUSTRALIA BELOW...

WOW, 4 BILLION DOLLARS IN TOXIC DEBT!!!

YEAH, THAT IS GONNA BRING DOWN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS!!!!

SOME CRASH!!!!

DOPES!!!!

sam said...

Baltimore still between anxiety and denial.

I can see close to 2000 units under construction from my office window. Checked the property tax records for the most recent condo- 99% flippers, defined by LLC's and people with multiple units. I assume the same thing for the 2000 under construction. It's so obvious.

Anonymous said...

Just wait until the Wall St. debt market seizes up. Then the stock market will drop like a rock, and no one will be able to get approved for a mortgage without a 20% down payment, proof of income, etc. Then people who need to sell will positively freak.

The Thinker said...

Keith, you keep asking this question, month after month, but the answers are always the same. We are squarely in DENIAL mode, at least nationally. The California/Florida/Arizona/Las Vegas markets may be in worse shape than the rest of the country, but at least here in the North-East it's denial, denial, denial.

We don't have any half-off auctions around these parts, if you want a crappy condo, you will have to pay pretty much what people payed back in 2005, although they may through in an elevator for your 2-story townhouse.

Perhaps when the selling season of '08 turns out to be another bust people will start to worry. Or maybe when interest rates start to climb again, lending standards begin to tighten in earnest, or more interest rates reset, maybe then we will begin to see some panic, but at least for now, perhaps you should rename the blog "HOUSING DENIAL"

Anonymous said...

Word is hedge funds are PANICKING!

Anonymous said...

We just hired someone to become a director and the person first accepted the job and then refused to start when he found out he could not sell his house to move here. He had a nice $100,000 equity in his stucko box that got wiped out by the crash. Fear is creeping in at last. The wall of worry is caving in.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Still no place on that chart here, YET! If you are not in a bubble area, there is no concern. Try to talk to locals about the national economy, their eyes glaze over. The ripple out effects will affect everyone, buts it's gonna be damn slow!

Peahippo said...

Honestly, Keither, your standard "denial" graph doesn't account for the False Recovery, a.k.a. the Reflation Effort.

Neither does the graph account for regional differences. Real estate really IS different, depending on which region ... but I mean they're different in which part of the bubble they're in. For example, the Carolinas are still peaking, and may yet have a good selling season next Spring (which should then be the end of the national bubble's peak).

So, if you're in the Carolinas, you're somewhere before "Euphoria". If you're in Detroit, you've reached "Capitulation". If California, you're between "Anxiety" and "Desperation". If the Midwest, you're only at "Anxiety". Florida, "Fear". Etc.

The False Recovery is still running its course in many areas. From the news reports, Countrywide's loans took a significant uptick. I'm sure that mortgage fraud is also spiking.

I can't wait for the ARM resets to start hammering more millions of moronic Americans until the Spring selling season in 2008. If you think that there was a lot of inventory in Spring of 2007, just wait until the horde of f*cked buyers HAS TO SELL by Spring 2008. Remember also, that we have a lot (and a growing number of) fence sitters now, and they will NOT run down the inventory sufficiently until Spring.

What I can't predict is how many of the fence sitters will bite on the hook in the Spring despite clear evidence that prices will continue falling.

P.S. I just checked your newslink, and the LA Times blogger clearly pointed out the False Recovery peak.

Tom Cruise (and Katie) said...

Dow hits 14,000
Blue-chip average strikes milestone as a generally tame inflation report drives gains.

**dancing** I'm in the money, I'm in the money ***dancing***

SHOW ME THE MONEY! Hellya!

Anonymous said...

Laura Vella said: Believe it or not, some are still in Euphoria! Prices drop alittle bit, think it's a good deal!

Others know prices are down, but don't think anything bad is going to happen.

Seattle is not SF said...

Seattle is still in euphoria stage. Realtors claiming that Seattle's market is "bulletproof" and will never go down.
Only problem is that Seattle doesn't have California salaries. Salaries have stagnated here for years. Price of homes here are now easily 30% overpriced v.s. the economy. Thousands of new condos will be flooding the market here in the next 2 years. All of them starting at 400K for a shoebox sized studio.

Anonymous said...

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Explore, Create & Share Intelligent Maps and Geographic Data

Anonymous said...

I think we are between denial and fear stages.

Anonymous said...

Here in Tampa most folks still think that denial is a river in Egypt, and those bush/Chaney bumper stickers are the most cherished items that they own! No kidding, this area has the biggest pile of sheeple brainwashed dumbasses that has ever been assembled anywhere which makes me believe that there must be a government sponsored goebbels like study going on down here... ROTFLMFAO, I met this character the other day telling me realestate is hot and he is selling houses like hotcakes right now... So many gomers, so little time...

westwest888 said...

"More than 700 homes were in foreclosure in Montgomery County between April and June of this year, up from 49 during the same period last year"

Nothing to see in Washington, DC, area. Move along.

Anonymous said...

I've asked thisquestion many times and none ofyou liberals ever answer:

how is Bush at fault for this bubble, yet Clinton in praised for the "great economy" of the 90s which was built on the .com bubble.

Anonymous said...

For the vast majority of people that purchased since 2003, I would say somewhere between Anxiety and Denial. Of course, if you owe a lot and need to sell, Fear.

Arnold said...

California is home to the most winning towns on Money Magazine's Best Places to Live list this year.

www.cnnfn.com

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
euphoria: greg swann

denial: home owners

fear: realtors, builders

desperation: lenders

panic: hedge funds

July 17, 2007 8:55 AM

Anonymous said...
FB's = denial

realtrolls = desperation

lenders = panic

July 17, 2007 8:00 AM

The Thinker said...
Keith, you keep asking this question, month after month, but the answers are always the same. We are squarely in DENIAL mode, at least nationally. The California/Florida/Arizona/Las Vegas markets may be in worse shape than the rest of the country, but at least here in the North-East it's denial, denial, denial.

We don't have any half-off auctions around these parts, if you want a crappy condo, you will have to pay pretty much what people payed back in 2005, although they may through in an elevator for your 2-story townhouse.

Perhaps when the selling season of '08 turns out to be another bust people will start to worry. Or maybe when interest rates start to climb again, lending standards begin to tighten in earnest, or more interest rates reset, maybe then we will begin to see some panic, but at least for now, perhaps you should rename the blog "HOUSING DENIAL"

July 17, 2007 1:28 PM

Thinker, I disagree and point to the market player approach some posters have taken to highlight where each currently sits. It looks like there is consensus that no player has yet capitulated sans those who've just walked away from it all, sub-prime lenders and possibly the MSM. Here is my take on it:

Capitulation: Sub-prime lenders & the MSM which is now reporting the truth is spades.

Panic: Hedge funds and CDO/MBS investors who are now firing up their lawsuits against the hedge funds. Alt-A lenders and some prime banks/lenders & some homebuilders are also here.

Desparation: Prime banks/lenders and most homebuilders, some realtwhores and other RE transaction parasites (appraisers, title companies home inspectors etc.)

Fear: Realtwhores and those retailers and manufacturers and companies that feed off of homeowner consumption in some way, e.g. Home Depot/Lowes, lumber companies, appliance retailers and mfgers, furniture makers and retailers etc.

I'd also put sub-prime borrowers who are already suffering from rate resets who've been attempting to sell there homes for the last six months. The Silent Spring Selling season pulled the wool off their eyes in conjunction with their monthly payments doubling and finding out that the could not refi either due to bad credit or the huge penalties they would incur.

Denial: The majority of home owners. Many of whom this may not impact upon directly, but all of whom will be affected by it indirectly via drops in value due to sub-prime borrowers and ATM HELOC neighbors who cannot keep up, cannot sell for a profit and cannot refi so either massive foreclosure motivated price cuts or blighted property will hit everyone in some form to pull them out of denial.

Note that the stage the players are at are a function of how the slowdown ripples through the market hitting different players at different times due to the way the RE market is structured and entwined into the greater economy.

Good Luck!!

Anonymous said...

BWA HA HA!!

14K DOW

Yep the world is ending. Depression is coming.

Enjoy the 5% CD losers.

Anonymous said...

re: best places to live

look at median incomes of the top 25 highest income cities....$150K and up. You ask who can afford expensive homes, there is your answer.

Denverguy said...

I am not a liberal by any means but I'll take a shot at answering this. The reason is because Bush was on the watch when Greenspan droped the rate to such low levels and kept them there for too long. Bush also was pushing homeownership at a time when he should have been talking to Greenspan about raising rates as prices were running out of control. It is on record the number of visits that Greenspan had to the whitehouse for both Clinton and Bush and he talks with our current president alot more then the last one.

On the flip side Clinton was just lucky to catch all of the upside of the tech bubble and only catch the tail of the downside so it's not much better there.

Ben Dover said...

we will be there by September when the summer sales numbers are a flop.

Here in NorCal summer almost is over. Two new price reduced signs up this morning on the street I drive going to work. MANY houses for sale here. MANY for rent signs as well. All the FBs from SoCal that thought the houses up here were such a good deal are finding out the hard way this is just a backwater town with few jobs... and no money.

Anonymous said...

The two developers I have been working with here in California hit the fear stage over 6 months ago. They wouldn't say it outright but I could see it in their eyes and their actions.

They are now entering the next stage. Desperation I believe it is called?

As for the thousands of recently layed-off management personnel, I would say they simply blew right throught both of these stages.

Ron said...

What the public doesn't know makes them the public.

I agree with the others that there are different stages happening in different places. Brokers and builders are definitely aware, and some in the know, are well aware of the storm on the horizon....the public are clueless until the butter meets the bread and reality hits home in real dollars.

Anonymous said...

Bankers love the sweet, sweet taste of your tears. They sip them from champagne flutes while cruising down the main street of your little town in their Bentleys. They also eat babies whenever they can get away with it!

Ron said...

Ohh..."us liberals"....so typical the ole label ploy. Give it up fuk tard we conservatives who understand real economics and what a traitor Bush is to flag and country, aint going to bite on that tired and played out stupid neo-con ploy.

Coward in Chief Bush is an utter failure and moron, so put that in your pipe and smoke it traitor lover.

Now back to the conversation at hand, begone traitor loving troll.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
BWA HA HA!!

14K DOW

Yep the world is ending. Depression is coming.

Enjoy the 5% CD losers.

July 17, 2007 3:39 PM
--------------
I'm getting 6% from FNBO on 100k from the profit of my overpriced condo sale (purchased pre-bubble). I'm getting 5.5% from a CD offered by 1st Horizon for the balance of the proceeds from the sale and I've paid off all my debts and own a new car outright with all the bells and whistles. The interest income I make EXCEEDS the rent profit I would have made if I continued to own, after tax matters are factored in.

So basically I'd like to thank naysayers like you for helping me hit the lottery by buying my condo, which when I bought it, it was considered a ball-n-chain bad investment and which now just a few years later is again a ball-n-chain that will not sell!! I think the GF that bought off of me must be a friend of yours because he's saying the same thing!!

Anonymous said...

The San Francisco Bay Area is still firmly in denial. People seem to have realized that prices have stopped going up at 20% per year, but they firmly believe that prices could never, ever go down. We're toooo special for price declines I guess.

Pleiotropik said...

i would like to humbly point out that since this is a psychological index it will be very hard to sit straight at the fear stage since MSM media still controls the emotional intensity of the "message". it will oscillate in and around denial for a long time and suddenly they will try to switch the message to the "hope" stage as peope finally abandon the denial stage.
The only way you'll see "panic" and "capitulation" in MSM is if the TV station, or Radio station, or newspaper building is bombed directly by the USAF at the same time a quake is happening and there's an active SARS-Osama epidemic.

Anonymous said...

After reading this article below, it appears desperation is in full swing inside the corridors of Wells Fargo.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/16/wells-fargo-bank-has-a-good-sense-of-humor/

The stock market continually rising without valuations to back it up is getting really scary. The higher this market goes, the more painful the fall is going to be, and it looks like it's going to be really painful.

leggo

Anonymous said...

The stage of the wave will differ from area to area. IMHO

When an airplane wing stalls, it does so from different places. That is to say, the whole wing doesn't stall all at once. It varies from one place to another and works over the course of time.

As each day goes by and there are fewer and fewer "qualified" borrower/buyers (a.k.a. chumps), and fewer and fewer places offering cheap and easy-to-qualify-for mortgage credit, this noose gets a little tighter.

As builders add to inventory (and that will vary from one place to another), the noose gets a little tighter. My personal theory is that towns that don't recognize what is happening early on (last year) and continue to issue building permits as if it is business as usual (present day) will suffer more than other areas that trim back on the building permits issued - but that idea and 50 cents will get you a cup of coffee.

Each time a lenders "gets the keys back" from their borrowers who are throwing in the towel on their debts and those lenders are forced to sell a foreclosure (a.k.a. "fixer upper") into a market that is weak as it is, this noose will get a little tighter.

IMHO, this will be like a frog in a kettle of water that is slowly brought to a boil over a somewhat lengthy period of time. The frog will just sit tight until it is too late. I do believe it will unravel faster than previous bubbles because things move faster today than in decades past.

Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

"look at median incomes of the top 25 highest income cities....$150K and up. You ask who can afford expensive homes, there is your answer."

Too bad those making the median cannot afford to buy in their own towns anymore. For example, Great Falls, Va Median household income: $181,318; Median home price: $1,419,278

Quite a far cry from the 2.5 to 3X income.

Anonymous said...

"They also eat babies whenever they can get away with it!"

LOL

cobra2411 said...

Nope... I smell it, but haven't seen it yet... It's getting closer but there is still alot of cranial rectal inversion

Anonymous said...

Clinton bubble: good

Bush bubble: bad

Reason: Clinton is a communist, Bush isn't, therefore the libs love Clinton and hate Bush.

Jerj said...

First MSM story on ripple effects yesterday in the San Diego Union Tribune - saying how the housing slump is killing the local economy. I think the fear stage is finally beginning.

borkafatty said...

I remember this one time in Band Camp we were all sitting around masturbating to the thought of a DOW 14,000 and actually thinking we were making money.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
JUST WATCHED YOUR YOUTUBE VIDEO FROM AUSTRALIA BELOW...

WOW, 4 BILLION DOLLARS IN TOXIC DEBT!!!

YEAH, THAT IS GONNA BRING DOWN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS!!!!

SOME CRASH!!!!

DOPES!!!!

Obviously you didn't watch the full video or you just don't get it. The 4 billion was just held by the two hedge funds that got in trouble. there's trillions more held by other funds. but that's OK, you still serve a useful purpose in showing how much denial is still out there.

Anonymous said...

previous post - "cranial rectal inversion"

I like it.

james dean said...

look at median incomes of the top 25 highest income cities....$150K and up. You ask who can afford expensive homes, there is your answer.

Ba ha. Dude, hard to respect your post...these are not cities by any stretch, they are mostly communities or areas of communities.

By the way, there are some 5 million dollar homes on a street near me (DC area), the median income of these 12 houses is likely around 500K each. Ergo, the DC area median income must be 500K. Ba ha ha.

Anonymous said...

"look at median incomes of the top 25 highest income cities....$150K and up. You ask who can afford expensive homes, there is your answer."

Huh, where? I don't see any answer. In the real world $150K will qualify you for a $450K house. In which one of those cities can you get a decent house for $450K? And please, don't say it's different now and you don't need as much income as you needed pre bubble to qualify for a mortgage. Teaser rates may still be around but they're only for idiots.

Colonel Angus said...

Denverguy said...
I am not a liberal by any means but I'll take a shot at answering this. The reason is because Bush was on the watch when Greenspan droped the rate to such low levels and kept them there for too long. Bush also was pushing homeownership at a time when he should have been talking to Greenspan about raising rates as prices were running out of control. It is on record the number of visits that Greenspan had to the whitehouse for both Clinton and Bush and he talks with our current president alot more then the last one.

On the flip side Clinton was just lucky to catch all of the upside of the tech bubble and only catch the tail of the downside so it's not much better there.

July 17, 2007 3:46 PM

Dot com bubble was made worse by changing regulations allowing Venture capital funds to pump and dump IPOs. Under previous rules Venture capitalists could not sell nearly as many shares after the IPO. Previously there was a longer holding period. This encouraged IPOs for every Dot com scam Wall Street could dream up. Clinton does not get much credit for this.

Anonymous said...

2.5 to 3X income is a fantasy. Never was never will be in coastal areas. Maybe in flyover country that is the case. In DC, LA, NY, SF, Boston...not gonna happen, never did happen.

I lived in NYC from 1997 to 1999 right after college. My rent in '97 for a marginally OK 1 bedroom on W 34th was $1400,which everyone I knew thought was the deal of a lifetime. $1400 today - 10 years and a housing boom later - will rent you a 3 bedroom home in Dallas or Phoenix or Denver or pretty much anywhere 100 miles or more away from an ocean.

Yes it **IS** different in some places, always has been, always will be. NYC r/e will never see 3X median income levels and neither will DC, Boston, etc. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming.

sinis said...

It seems everyone I am talking to has either recently filed or is getting ready to file Bankruptcy! Alot of it has to do with CC. They ask me if I will be filing Bankruptcy, and I'm like no, I have no CC bills - they look at me shocked, but then again my house is simple and I don't have the newest car, nor the latest gadget.

Shakster said...

Kieth - this is eerily like the months before 911.
We had a stock market crash,and recession looming large,Congress went on Vacation ,as did the Bush.
To keep in perspective realize that all the rising prices of anything are a function of devaluing USdollars.Iraq was getting out of dollars,and Saudi Arabia was in line too.
Nasdaq was absorbing alot of excess,as was the SP,with hollow companies,and a scapegoat called Enron.
The MSM has always pushed the "Lack of Supply",or some sort of turmoil for the cause of rising prices.This is total diversion.
If Joe Six Packer realizes that prices are a function of devaluing USDollars,even the unsophisticated masses would stert to save ,or convert to hard assets.Joe must consume in the dollar scheme.
Their is no lack of oil,water,food without a manmade scheme or catastrophe.Prices of everything began rising faster in 2001,and now are accellerating out of control.To remain stable,the Dollar requires redemption in hard assets<------Remember that. Gold dumping by central banks is the Hard asset function that stabilizes currencies best.Then giving away resources,land,and now infrastructure to foreign holders of us dollars.
We have no gold to give anymore,and have handed over valauble resources,and strategic property to various countries.
Iran is starting a panic(GOOD For Them)They are getting the hell out of dollars.We have warships building up off the coast of Iran,and no valid reason to attack.
GulF of Tonkin part2?
Us/Isreali Backed Kurds attacking Iran in the north,and this Morning the MSM in Los Angeles is running the boogie man AlQaida,and terrorist scare tactics like crazy.
To stabilize the dollar the CBs need war now.China has resrvations about purchasing anymore worthless USPaper,and Retsinas is trying to prepare Americans for a mass immigration event from Mexico.
Watch for an ugly falseflag event by US/Isreal to be blamed on Iran.The Mexicans will be absorbing excess dollars,and the Draft is on.The Mexicans will be sacrificed.

Anonymous said...

In Phoenix, title companies are laying off or firing en-masse.

Houses on my street have been for sale for over a year now.

New arrivals to Phoenix is still 103 thousand a month.

go figure.

sinis said...

How will housing accelrate down if the US is hit by another terrorist strike like the news keeps saying? Or is this a government red herring to divert attention away from what is or about to happen in the financial world?

anon e. moose said...

Seattle area is in cautious denial. The prices are still up, but the sales have slowed down a bit. I have a condo for sale, but had to drop the price almost 20K against a comp for somebody to bite. Hoping it will sell.

Anonymous said...

Some buyers are still in a combination ' denial/excitment' mode!
I am trying to unload my primary home at the drop (now) and I held an open house Sunday. I had 7 families drop by and 3 were interested, 1 saying as soon as they get approval from the lender this week, they wanted to make an offer. God damn, its amazing. Still a shit load of misinformed douche bags. Message to all the realtwhores: keep lying to them and keep them coming!

Girl Guide said...

I have a store in a strip mall in the Ft Myers area where there is an Exit Realty Co. Yesterday, the agents came to work to find the door to the Real Estate Office locked. Everything had been moved out on Sunday. Apparently, they were three months behind in their rent.

They owe me money too. I was stupid enough to carry an account for them. What was I thinking? Oh well, I will just tell the world not to do business with them.

Anonymous said...

In the words of Greenday "WAKE me up when September ends!" We are at the cusp of denial and moving toward fear (local fear in a few areas is spreading) After the summer selling season ends and the foreclosures keep climbing, coupled with even more lending standards being tightened we will be in the fear stage by October and will continue to mid summer of 08 at the mid to end of the summer is when panic shall start and creep across America-leaving 09-10 the bottom except in the areas where such an oversupply will take longer to work off (south Florida / Las Vegas condo igh rise.

Anonymous said...

Nothing but denial.

I happened to over-hear two people talking at my gym about their desire to get into the "house flipping" game. So ignorance still abounds and this will take a lot longer than most people think to fully unwind.

Ron said...

Clinton bubble: good

Bush bubble: bad

Reason: Clinton is a communist, Bush isn't, therefore the libs love Clinton and hate Bush.

Brilliant observation! Bravo....yes BRAVO! Now why don't we save a small golf clap for you, as you ride out the room on a cloud of fairy dust. You sir are as smart as a bag of hammers, and as enjoyable to read as a stomach pump.

It is sad there is no upgrade for stupidity like a program...imagine what we could do....*sigh*

Mike said...

I believe we have entered Fear. My freinds who bought 600-700K dollar homes this summer can not unload their existing 300-350K homes and their moving date is in August. I am renting a nice house and 2 friends last month contacted me asking how did I go about renting and how they can find renters for their 300-350K homes.We have 1 -2 more years to go before things stop deteriorating.

westchester chick said...

I still think most people are in denial since the prices aren't dropping off a cliff. But it makes my heart all warm and fuzzy every time I hear a bubble story on the news - where you used to hear outrage at the mere mention of a housing bubble - there are more and more stories about trouble in the housing segment - they try to spin it positively saying the worst is over or that it's limited to subprime - but I don't think any amount of positive spin will prevent the sh*t from hitting the fan.

Anonymous said...

Way to go there borka!

BN in AZ said...

(From Keyser):

Call me crazy....but those folks in Florida who bought townhouses for $300k, only to have the builder sell the same model for $145k, at a later date, didn't seem like they were in denial on that youtube bit. Is there a 'pissed off' point in that wave?


These people that have the f*&king nerve to be "pissed" when their neighbor sells for less should be shot. These twisted imbeciles actually believe they have the "right" to the price they paid (or more!). All this means is that these people are distinct enemies of a free market system, and are simply upset that others will not straight out collude with them to cheat others. It is THEY who have the criminal and selfish motivations, not the sellers.

If they want to be pissed, then they should be pissed at THEMSELVES for being ignorant, greedy, and just downright stupid. (And for CAUSING the problem to begin with.)

These same shitheads lived in better places than they deserved for the last several years while smarter and more selfless people lived within their means and worth. They have some nerve to be resentful - they've taken from society and are now indebted to it.

Basically, "STFU".

Anonymous said...

Colorado Springs has a big river running through it. However I think Fall will be interesting. Seeing a lot of 500k up houses in a 39000 average income city sitting on market for months. Also we are on pace for a record number of forclosures.

To the ignorent troll 3 questions.

If housing is such a good investment why are people choosing to go into forclosure? Why not sell for a huge profit, maybe they have to much money?

Also give one reason for the DOW to go up. Show me one fundamental for DOW 14000.

Also if we are dumb asses sorry Keith why are the home builders so pessimistic?

Waiting patiently for your answers idiot,

Sequoia512

Anonymous said...

"I've asked thisquestion many times and none of you liberals ever answer:

how is Bush at fault for this bubble, yet Clinton ..."

Simple: Clinton/Gore were fiscal conservatives and social liberals. Remember "smaller, cheaper, better"? During the Clinton era, Democrats went well beyond centrism and became barely distinguishable from mainstream Republicans, something difficult for right-wing extremists such as yourself to comprehend. There was a balanced budget - a surplus - that had little to do with the stock market. It was quaintly referred to as "the peace dividend". Guess we won't be seeing any of the fruits of that labor for a looooooong time, thanks to Shrub.

a.creampuff said...

I like this one: "despondency".

Tee-hee.

Anonymous said...

Stop repeat offenders.
Don't re-elect them!

Anonymous said...

still in denial.

Anonymous said...

how is Bush at fault for this bubble, yet Clinton in praised for the "great economy" of the 90s which was built on the .com bubble.
--------------------------------

that is an easy one, bush screwed up what clinton handed him on a silver platter. ;)

Anonymous said...

The only people affected are the ones that have to sell, like the friend of mine who bought last year in Blowmont, California and now has to move. Realtor is telling them a 7% (30k) loss at least. He has no equity because he was taking out "Free Money" loans (his words). The mood quickly goes from anxiety to fear, to shock, to disbelief, to depression when you have to sell. His relatives (who got him to buy) are all like, "How can you possibly lose money on a house? That never happens!" the wife can't believe it because she's been watching all the "Pimp your Flip" shows on TV.

james dean said...

Yes it **IS** different in some places, always has been, always will be. NYC r/e will never see 3X median income levels and neither will DC, Boston, etc. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming.

You, my friend, don't know what you are talking about. Stick to discussing Manhattan where (supposedly) you have some experience.

Up until 5 years ago, DC was running at 2-3x income; just 10 years ago in close-in DC burbs, you could buy nice houses for under 165K. Back in 1965-1970, you could get the same home for 25K. Oh, and by the way, the average salary for entry level government engineers was around 8K at that time. My dad raised six kids on one government salary and retired after 30 years. And the Bush administration doesn't understand why Americans don't feel connected to the great economy?!? Outside of the investor class, this country has been heading to hell in a handbasket since the day I was born.

There is no historical evidence of crazy multiples outside of Manhattan and Nob Hill; there is likewise no evidence of anything other than 30 year fixed loans, with either 20% down or mortgage insurance.

Stephen said...

Anonypussy 5:16 said . . .

"that is an easy one, bush screwed up what clinton handed him on a silver platter. ;)"

--------------------

Um, wasn't the economy already in recession before Bush took office?

Bush's tax and spend policies, and the abhorrable acts that the Fed committed under his watchful eye (actually, he probably doesn't what the Fed does), are not my favorite either.

However, I really don't think that Clinton handed Bush anything on a silver platter, except for maybe a steaming pile of shit, which Bush then proceeded to play around in like a mentally challenged kindergartner.

DaveO said...

Anonymous 7/17 17:11 said:
"2.5 to 3X income is a fantasy. Never was never will be in coastal areas. Maybe in flyover country that is the case. In DC, LA, NY, SF, Boston...not gonna happen, never did happen.
...
Yes it **IS** different in some places, always has been, always will be. NYC r/e will never see 3X median income levels and neither will DC, Boston, etc. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming."

You're wrong, at least about DC. My grandparents bought a new no-frills 2-story house (about 1900 sq ft) in Potomac, MD (a nice DC suburb) in 1966 for $25,000. My grandfather (they were 1-income as most people those days) was quite middle class and made about 10,000/year (which was typical then). He was by no means rich; they had 1 car and hardly ever went shopping. It was a similar situation for all of their neighbors. Let's see 25,000 / 10,000 = 2.5X income.

Anonymous said...


There was a balanced budget - a surplus - that had little to do with the stock market.


You have a tiny brain.

1. The budget wasn't balanced until the Republicans took over the House and Senate in 1996. All spending bills come from Congress, not the White House. If you can name some spending cut initiatives that were pushed by Clinton, then you can say he helped with the budget surplus.

2. The stock market has everything to do with a balanced budget. People making money on stocks pay lots of taxes. People losing money on stocks get tax deductions.

If you are so stupid, why do you have to advertise it by posting online?

BN in AZ said...

that is an easy one, bush screwed up what clinton handed him on a silver platter. ;)

This is funny. Though many people at this site have a fair understanding of economics, it's amazing how many believe that the U.S. President is the main driver of the U.S. economy.

The economic burst of the '90's had almost NOTHING at all to do with Bill Clinton (e.g.: what else would you expect with the incredible boom in the tech industry [this was Clinton?], or with the inevitable downsizing of the military after the end of the cold war [this was Clinton?], etc.?). And this phase had begun during the previous president's administration.

Although I personally sit far more "right" than "left" politically,I will admit that about the only exception I see to this are the most extreme conditions, such as when a nation is engaged in an expensive war that a president may (or may not) have been the main force behind. However, there are several points to be made on this, as well:
a) the decision to enter Iraq was American policy before Bush was in office.
b) one can argue at long length the overall effect of war on an economy. True, the budget deficit has grown ridiculously, but history has shown that this is in fact the fastest fix for an economy that is due for a massive deflation and is running out of superficial and speculative quick fixes (ref: the Great Depression).

In short, the man who sits in the Oval Office tends to take credit or blame for a whole host of things that in reality he has very little to do with.

BN in AZ said...

The only people affected are the ones that have to sell...

Wrong.

I get tired of hearing this. So you're trying to say that if person (a) has $500,000 debt and person (b) has no debt, that person (a) is "not affected", and they are each in the same position?

Which person is more able to buy more goods at this point (translation: which person is "wealthier"?). Who has a higher net worth?

True, person (a) may not be affected - if where he is in life at that moment is exactly where he wants to remain for the rest of his life.

Really, this isn't complicated. Usually, though, I hear it from those that are in this undesirable position and are looking to console themselves. It's all about relativity. That's really the essence of "wealth", right?

Anonymous said...

In short, the man who sits in the Oval Office tends to take credit or blame for a whole host of things that in reality he has very little to do with.

July 18, 2007 8:50 PM

====

I agree. Except that in the liberal media, history books written by far left "historians" and socialist blogs like HP, Clinton gave us prosperity and Bush stole it from us. Just like FDR was a great President for ending the depression. Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.

Anonymous said...

"Watch for an ugly falseflag event by US/Isreal to be blamed on Iran."

Hey Shakster, you moron -- for such an authority on the US/Israel plan, you might want to learn how to spell their names correctly.

Nice babble, though.