No "anons" allowed. If you want your post to show up on this thread, you have to at least click "other" and call yourself something.
What's Monday gonna look like? For the Dow:
1) Up
2) Down 1 to 199
3) Down 200 to 499
4) Down 500 to 999
5) Down 1000+
Here's my take:
Too bad homedebtors and flippers can't just hit the "sell" button like stock owners, eh? And remember, stocks and bonds are not house prices. Iphones aren't house prices either FYI...
What happened last week in the debt markets, where essentially the engine froze up and exploded, is not fixable. This is the period of "discredit" from Manias, Panics and Crashes that follows all leveraged booms. It will, and it must, run its course. Watch for major LBOs to come apart now.
Since this was the mother of all booms, this period of self-feeding "discredit" will amaze.
However, that said, the impact on stocks on a day by day basis is unknown. Yes, there should be a classic rush to cash and safety, where panicked people sell everything they have to raise cash in a frenzy. But panics take time - look how long the NASDAQ bust took - not just one day.
Meanwhile, the meltdown in the debt markets, coupled with a big drop in stocks last week, means that hedge funds are failing as I type. And there will be forced selling in the market as they unwind. The only way for some funds to survive is to risk everything they've got left Monday to try to defend. We'll see if they have enough ammo.
So, my prediction for Monday is the #1 day in the history of the world for stock trading volume. Wild swings. And a big loss (700 points) at the end. But I honestly don't have confidence in this prediction - stocks can be wild. And that's why I'm happy watching from the sidelines, except for my miners, alt energy, oil and REIC shorts.
156 comments:
I believe we will see #3. I predict about 300 points down for The Dow. After that, I believe we will see The Dow move back up to 13,500 over the next month or two.
LauraVella said: I think we could see another 200+pt drop (B), but hoping it's only 150.
Would that mean if it falls 700 points would we be getting closer to the great depression drop so many people have said this looks like. And if so what about the jobs market and consumer confidence. Nothing is lining up like the great depression so what will be the inevitable impact on the everyday consumer-american. Forget the illegals they helped prop up a false economy.
That is the question that constantly leads me to this particular sight, hoping someone would answer this question.
After all I have done I would hate to think illegals and greedy businessmen would have me in a soup line and homeless, all of which I have done nothing to earn.
I say the drop will be between 200-300 and the ride will be bumpy all day. But then I predicted to my coworkers the stocks would end at least 70 points over the loss on Thursday. What do I know?
Down 200 at open, then ending the day up 35.
The spirits tell me so.
The PPT has been on the line to the Fed all weekend. The printing presses have been running flat out for 72 hours now. Pallets of crisp, new, 100 dollar bills are being trucked all over the country, to prop up investment banks and private firms nation wide. Monday at 8:01 AM any major investment firm that needs a few hundred million dollars before 9:30 will get it. Monday will become the greatest stock market recovery - bear trap - swindle - naked manipulation of any finanial system in the history of the world. If any of you are shorting now, I bet a 6-pack that you are going to get your head handed to you by 3:59 pm.
Good luck!
- Snow
I'd say down 100 points plus on mediocre financial data and the realization that the easy credit days are fin.
Then again Barrons has a report suggesting buying Home Depot as they think it will recover from it's doldrums with a new business strategy aimed at contractors and some other tweaks. So obviously those delerious Bulls still have a few rtricks up their sleeves.
The problem is I don't think there are many greater fools left :)
based on the AHM meltdown, the lenders and other financials are going get pounded once again .. happily short all the ALT-A lender and builders ..
will be shopping for puts on the investment firms ..
Volatile but neutral is where max pain lies and is where the markets will end on monday. Too much fear of the abyss, however, so if we go down "they" may panic and we go down alot.
With all the trading curbs in effect on the US markets the dow will only go down about 200 points on monday. I expect for next week to mirror this week with approx a 700 point total loss.
Seasonality (Buy at the beginning of the month, sell at the end), dictates that the market should be up on Monday and Tuesday. I am also not seeing the fear and panic that I expect. Too many people are just shrugging off. Even Bill Gross says everything is fine with stocks and their values (http://tinyurl.com/3c5o4m), though he does mention he is not buying. (Ha ha)
That said, I did not sell my CFC, MCO etc. puts yet, as I do expect to see the market down quite a bit in the coming weeks.
After the depression, when asked how he was able to earn so much money from his Wall Street investments, Bernard Baruch is reported to have said, "Because I always sold too soon".
The Dark clouds are gathering. Will it be a gulley-washer or a slow moving, long lasting storm?!!
Bernanke--I think the "Containment" is spreading!!
Remember - no anon's on this thread - gotta have a name to respond
just click "other". is that too hard to ask?
depends on how the market reacts over sea's other wise I can only see it going down...there is nothing on the books this week that could justify a rebound.
I see a quick fall - 200 to 300 points with some failed rallies during the day and afternoon but never going green. Then, huge selling from 3pm on - picking up at 3:30pm. My guess is we're down 550 to 600 points by the close.
This market has been so slow to react to the obvious, it wouldn't surprise me, if the market trades up not realizing the fiasco going on in the mbs/cdo markets where no bid seems to rule the day, and goldylox gets her reprieve from the ever on charging freddy krueger for now...
First time commenter. Always fun to read what others think on property, financial markets etc.
I'll be tuned in to CNBCW this evening to see how the Asian markets pan out. That will probably give us indication of what Monday will bring on Wall Street.
Anyway, I was watching Friday and I saw a lot of resistance agsint further falls - but then the floodgates seemed to open in the last hour - sending everyone home for a nervous weekend.
My prediction is #3.
I'll now sretreat quietly into the corner I crept out of :)
Hope you guys are having a good weekend :)
Down 200 to 499, With maybe a little "dead cat bounce" on Tuesday.
IMO, tomorrow trading in the U.S. depends heavily on what happens in Asia tonight. Paulson has been there for 48 hours and is *hopefully* earning his keep. AHM threw a monkeywrench into his efforts I'm sure.
Of this I'm sure, Maria Bartaromo will be a great barometer, and may just punch Steve Leisman in the jewels.
DOW down 165.37 tomorrow & Larry Kudlow calls the correction over. Tuesday, DOW down 458.26. Wednesday DOW up 212. Thursday DOW up 149. Friday, DOW down 85.
I could be wrong but I am looking for a 700 point drop in the opening seconds. Down 1200 overall tomorrow. Whatever it does I do not care because all my money is out of the market. Either way tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Who know I may just be a Dope.
#1
Ever the contrarian I say we rally. Here's why:
1. This is Bernanke's first big test and we all know his views when it comes to adding a little liquidity into the mix via his electronic printing press comments. Remember only fools fight the Fed.
2. August calls on the Spiders (S&P) are still fetching a pretty big premium. Even ones that are pretty far out, i.e. the 155's.
3. Given the recent relaxing of the uptick rule I have a feeling that a lotta newbie shorts have been piling on these past few sessions and could get their heads handed to them by Mr. Market by noon on Monday.
The investor blogs have been blazing hot all weekend long. One comment put it perfectly:
"Why would anyone tempt fate at a time when you're one announcement away from having your portfolio locked down on a ship with a big hole in it"?
Just like AHM, the rest could at any moment be just a heartbeat away from dividend suspension and there is tremendous anxst over this. That sentiment in itself holds the seeds of an ol' fashioned panic.
If you don't have access to earnings, you can't play the markets and that removes velocity they depends upon.
Wasnt' it a sudden loss of liquidity in the markets that was the trip hammer in 29'?
Heavy duty sell at the bell run for the exits: Down 400, recovers to down 200 mid-day, then down again last 1/2 hour, close: -300.
Only saved to that level due to massively corrupt manipulation by PPT. Market stops not likely, they won't let it get to that.
Really, noone has a clue what they are going to do on monday. Trying to pinpoint the day when a the market moves in a certain direction is virtually impossible. If you are unlike every other trader in the history of the world and you can actually do this then you should consider buying options or something and doubling your wealth every few days. While there is the outside possiblity that you will get this right just by sheer chance, the odds of it happening are low.
A 700-1000 point drop seems pretty unlikely though. I suspect it will just be like any other day with the market moving 2-3% at an absolute maximum in either direction.
It was a sharp, dramatic correction within an upward trend.
I was thinking a little more about this - here is what I think will happen. Dow plunges on opening, trading curbs kick in. This means no "program trades" unless on an up-tick. The reality of this is that the SOES, small order execution system, will freeze all the day players, ameritrade, scotts trade, ect. ect. who are doing quick time shorts. Then a very orderly afternoon of decapitations will bring the dow back to the 14,000's. A little profit taking after 3pm, and the Dow closes at 13,650. Betcha 2 6-packs.
-Snow
3
We are overdue for a correction. It should have happened already. It will happen.
But everyday I can predict that today will not be the day and almost all of the time I'll be right.
So, playing the percentages, I'm going to predict yet another sucker rally on Monday, up 130 points.
One day I'll be wrong, perhaps Monday will be the day. But I'm not betting on it.
Down 500 points at least.Bush will wheel out the arsenal to save us from tanking even more.
I cashed out in march and makeing 5% right now.Will wait for shit to hit the fan and the ease my way back in.
UP, 200 points.
UP, 200 points.
"Everyone played some role—the Street, lenders, ratings agencies, hedge funds, even homeowners. Where does responsibility lie?"
Let The Blame Begin
by Roben Farzad
Now that Businessweek has picked up on this it is guaranteed to get uglier!!! The shirking of responsibilty and the current blame game that is starting can prove to be mildly entertaining:
Ring#1: In this round we have - PENSION/EDUCATION FUNDS vs. RATING COMPANIES
Bond rating companies (moody's, fitch, standard & Poor) are taking a beating from their "grades" on these troubled securities. ex: "Without the agencies' stamp of approval, many big investors like pension funds and university endowments wouldn't be allowed to buy CDOs. The market, for all practical purposes, wouldn't exist"
Ring#2: In this corner we have - STATE ATTORNEY GENERALS vs. RATING COMPANIES
Attorney generals are starting to look into potential conflicts of interest between the rating Co's and the CDO issuers because they are being paid by bond issuers not investors. Only now the rating companies are backpedaling saying that these websites are for information only through free speech and should not be relied upon as advice.
Ring#3: Weighing in with over $27b in revenue we have a 3way- HEDGE FUNDS vs WALL STREET vs SHAREHOLDERS
Shareholders are suing hedge funds like Bear Stearns over the CDO's and hedge funds in turn are suing Wall Street which took in over $27b in revenues from trading asset-backed securities last year.
Ring#4: Undefeated champion of all time - The Investment Banks vs. The Regulators
Ring#5: Banker’s Life Insurance vs. Credit Suisse Group
Ring#6: Wall Street vs. Lenders
Big wigs Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse are suing mortgage companies for not buying back defaulted portfolios soon enough leaving them holding the bag.
Ring#7: NAACP vs. subprime lenders
NAACP is suing on behalf of African Americans being "seduced into higher-interest" subprime loans.
Ring#8: Homeowners (class action suit) vs. Mortgage Brokers and Lenders and Realtors
For fraud
Ring#9: FBI vs. anyone whom committed fraud whether (buyer, realtor, lender, broker, insurance co, title co, etc.,)
to read his article: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2007/pi20070726_003656.htm
Posted by benevolentstranger.blogspot.com at 7/29/2007 01:28:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post
Labels: BLAME, CDO, GAME, HEDGE FUNDS, HOMEOWNERS, LENDERS, RATING AGENCIES, STREET, SUBPRIME
Number 5 down 1000+
Agree with Sofia. Up.
+ stocks for the most part have low P/Es + cheap dollar appear to fuel an uptick in export of select goods (incl. GM!?!)
15000 by eoy
My 2c
TexStock
Wild Swings only to close flat on Monday.
Dollar takes greater than average daily fall....and slides for rest of the year.
By November/December, Dow back to 10,500. Dollar still trends down.
DOW up 40 Monday, up 300 next week. In between all over the place, wouldn't suprise me to see it dip below 13,000 early on Monday.
Hmm you wonder with all the Debt Markets Halting,you think the Corporations have had it with this administration? Or are they all really Leveraged to the hilt?
Monday: up 40
Next week up 300
Wild swings throughout,like 500 point swings within a couple of hours.
End of August Dow is at 14,500.
Up. I'd guess up between 100-300 and then up another 70 - 200 on Tuesday and Wednesday before some other bad news causes another big downward trend either at the end of this week or next week. Big gyrations up and down for awhile before a gradual decline...
#1 - Up. Suckers are going to see Friday's close and the ~100% chance of a rate cut the futures markets are predicting as a buying opportunity. Personally, I'm going to be shopping for puts on the big broker dealers and big liquid tech stocks. Not selling the ones I have on major investment banks (plenty of shiny piers still to hit yet), Alt-A lenders, and moneycenter banks. Also, I don't see 700 point drops coming until the margin calls really get rolling.
What will our market do on Monday?
Gee, all I have to do is call the Chairman (Mr. Hu Jintao) and ask him what does HE want our market to do on Monday.
...
Just got off the phone with the Chairman. He says starting on Monday, it's time to get a little payback for what you green eyed barbarian white devils did to us in 1901.
i think it will be flat....for about a week.....
then who knows......all depends if they are ready to bring the united states economy down yet.....
when the time is right, they will allow this meltdown to continue.....
that is unless they have somehow lost control of the situation and that maybe very well what has happened.....
in that case, as we all know, there is no honor among thieves , so it will be every man for himself....
Buy PSQ (it shorts Nasdaq)and don't sell it (cover) for at least 6 months.
I hope this is the start of a crash, societal breakdown and eventual cannibalism by the type of losers who would say the Pledge of Allegiance.
Katrina, Part 2.
However, the PPT will make of comeback next week.
I'm hoping that the rigged game that is the stock market goes dies a loud and painful death, once and for all. Wanna make money? GET A JOB AND BUILD SOMETHING!!!
That Bear trap scenario could happen.But I think this thing is blown out of control to the point that the best that Bernanke can hope for is the slow grind to the crapper.The Bull trap has alot of fat investors to snag first,so 150-200down.
Predicting stock prices on a daily or even yearly basis is a fool's game...but it is sometimes enjoyable to be a fool, so here goes:
#3) -200 to -499
That's going to be one trashed "Sell" button when the exchanges halt trading in an attempt to stop the bleeding.
If it crashes as many of you think and, it appears, hope it will do, will you cheerlead for the end to our system of capitalism? What else would be your motivation for wanting to see the system crash and burn? Why the glee then?
Me, I'd love to see the end to our system of capitalism but I fear that what would preplace it would be a modern version of the feudal system, something we're already approaching.
Interesting though, how many of you seem so hostile to a system most of you probably embrace. At least publicy. That may be the key.
up for this week. recoup most losses. we had this twicethis year already and there is just o much dinero out there.
Its going to go up. The powers that be will pump more dough into the casino and call the previous drops a "healthy correction". The market, IF it weren't a manipulated casino, would be in complete free fall.
The laws of economics appear to have been deleted...
Who cares? It's only an index!
The bust is already here. It went off in the housing market, and has moved through the sewage pipes to cause an almighty blockage.
Movement in the Shanghai exchange and the yen will show just how much this matters.
Maybe the big boys are toying with John von Neumann's MinMax game theory, by calculating their best worst outcome. (JvN was the one who tried to convince Truman to drop the bomb on the Soviets, just before they nicked the technology for themselves. And he was the inspiration for Dr Strangelove.)
It will fall as fast as the WTC towers did on 9/11 at a massive free-fall speed with no resistance - none - that turned into nothing but a pile of dust and pre-planted-charge-cut steel structural I-beams. That bin-laden guy sure knows how to control the world by death and deception.
i think this guy has it figured out
http://tinyurl.com/27lwsc
So what happens Monday?
IF one of the nuclear weapons go off over the weekend before we open, then "what's going to happen" will be obvious. We are going to crash. Period. If you wanted to get positioned, your chance was today. Monday you won't get the chance. What will kick it off? Any of the following:
* A serious unwind of the carry. Yen somewhere under 118 will set that off, but there's no way to know exactly where it happens. In short, watch the Yen Sunday evening when the FX markets open and especially when we get into the wee hours of the morning when Europe starts trading. If it roaches hard, WATCH OUT.
* If the Asian markets go completely to crap, we will likely follow them. Note that "complete to crap" is not down 1 or 2% - its a crash over there. Remember that China cannot drop more than 10% (they actually close the markets!); perspective is important. If they open severely down and followthrough occurs in Europe, look out!
* If any of the ticking nuclear weapons go off in the debt markets. This is a very serious risk - perhaps the most serious, because it is nearly impossible to quantify and could show up suddenly during the day as well. There is simply no way to put a handle on this but if it happens - you'll know it.
Note that only the second - the Asian markets going to hell, with none of the others getting in the way leaves any chance for intervention by anyone. There is no government in the world that can stop the FX markets from unwinding if they want to; they will simply piss money into a singularity. Ditto if the implosion occurs in the credit markets. The problem with the other scenario is that it is almost certain to touch off one of the other two! So forget about the "PPT" or any other such nonsense - if we get triggered there will be no rescue.
The other alternative is that none of these things happen going into Monday. In that case we will likely open down but at some point next week - perhaps Monday - the selling will abate. It could happen at the open but I'd bet against that; in all probability we will open down and either it'll wait a day or two and slowly abate or we'll reverse hard midday one of the days next week, perhaps even Monday.
At that point we will start to rally again. This rally should stall somewhere before we get to the 50DMA, likely before 1500, but we may cross it. When that rally stalls, and it should either next week or the first week in August, The Abyss will yawn wide.
Beware for there will be many Bears - and Bulls - caught in this trap on both ends. Trying to trade this in either direction carries extreme risk. If you can't be watching the market literally tick-by-tick don't even think about trying it!
If you try to front-run either of these moves play limited risk strategies that cannot be caught offsides and inflict unlimited - or nearly so - damage upon you.
Many people will see the selling exhaust and think its over, buying "the bottom". It is very likely that this will prove to be an excruciatingly bad bet; the odds of this being a "one trick pony", with the technical damage done here, are extremely small.
I rate the odds of this being over when the selling exhausts initially at less than ten percent.
...if the February levels crack in the S&P the minimum downside target is 1250 - a full 20% loss - and it only gets worse from there.
DOW Down 1k-1500. Panic on the markets as LBO deals collapse by 2:45pm, 1-2more companies withdraw from there dividend. Oh yeah, and cramer says we'll end in an UP day... LOL
hey i am ...other ....now.......
i think the market will be flat , up and down all week....
it is the age of volatility now....
they will blame it on this and that, but the real reason it is happening will continue to be covered up by the stock market cheer leaders.....
make some fast money? oh that worked for a while........but not anymore
now all of the talking heads on cnbc are seen as they really are....
insignificant.......
i think if this market goes into a certified bear market, cnbc will be laying off some babes.......
they will make excellent yard persons around new york and jersey...
My 2 cents. . .up tomorrow - remember the 2000-2003 meltdown was 200 points down, 100 points up. . .but the trend is down for the next six months. . .
We will see a 500 to 600 point drop down to around 12,700 on the dow tomorrow.
The biggest problem is that credit markets are tightening which causes revaluation of stocks (down). AHM is a perfect example of a failing credit market. As well as the cancellation of many M&A deals which no longer make sense in a slowing economy with rising interest rates.
Consumer confidence is lower than it was before the last two recessions.
FBs are having to take money out of 401ks to pay for cash flow problems as well as trembling that there only retirement asset (stocks & bonds) is now declining in value.
Homes aren't selling in July so investors know August numbers will bring more pain for the housing industry which has to cause other stock prices to revalue (autos, consumer).
August is normally a slow month for the stock market so traders probably don't won't to go on vacation with any exposure so they will sell now and buy later.
I believe the investment world has been waiting to see if the great American consumer would come out for the summer and buy homes or if they would see their shadow and crawl back in the whole. I believe the market is seeing the latter and tomorrow and this week will continue what we saw last week.
down about 300; the end of the day is in the upper 12,000 range.
You're right folks - we're so focused on the Dow - 30 manipulated stocks - that that index is a joke. Have a bad year? No worries - they yank you and put a good company in the index to replace you
More telling are the S&P, QQQQ and foreign indexes - maybe EWJ, EWZ, EWG
Away we go...
Market is just nervous.
It can go up or down.
Probably up - on short squeeze.
I'm a private hedge fund manager and have no opinion. I'm honest; I dot attempt to predict. What I'd like? Down big would be great. Last week my mechanical systems did very well on the short side. Basically they like the recent increased volatility (check out a chart of the VIX) so either direction is fine by me. But the more naive "stocks & real estate always go up" that are getting humbled, the better. BTW, to say all hedge funds are having troubles is a gross exaggeration. I'm up over 60% net year-to-date, and several of my peers are having a very solid year.
Housing will continue to drag markets down. Simple economics. US is dependent on construction and consumer spending for its growth. Less homes equals julio and maria spending less for the new car, the ARM they can't pay for anyway, less WalMart shopping, etc, etc.
I am an electrician at ground level working with moneyed folks. Less and less people are spending this year. I see the drop in business, since most people last year stated that they were using home equity to pay for home improvements. Lower home prices equals less equity equals less spending on many things.
I say we see more drops on Wall Street. Don't count on Helicopter Ben to do much since the Fed is limited in what they can do and the world is figuring out how worthless and inflated the dollar is. Gold prices are a prime indicator of how much trouble the dollar is in.
I say it drops until trading is suspended. Good thing I bought metals and don't depend on my 401K!
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22155513-5001024,00.html
10 minutes ago. Found via Googling asian markets.
8:15 AM in Sydney as I submit this. The ride ain't over yet.
My prediction is one way or another you tinfoil hat wearing tools will still be virgins this time tomorrow, whether the dow is up or down.
On ID's - just click "other" and type in "daffy duck" or "mayor mccheese" - no registration required
Just pick a name
-200 out of the gate, volatile all day, loss of 100 by close.
Over the rest of the year some sectors that desperately deserve it will be in for a pounding (builders, financial, consumer discretionary, etc). Others will do rather well, natural gas, oil/service, mining, consumer staples. Remember, the world economy is not what it used to be.
There are many new big players in today's market. As a rule of thumb, buy stocks in whatever China/India buys, (energy, raw materials), sell what China sells (manufacturing, crappy automobiles like Ford & GM, etc.). If China sells it, in the long run it will put any western competitor out of business. Asia has about 10 times as many potential consumers as North America. Their economies are expanding at a blistering pace. That's where you got to look for the next great investment opportunity...and I don't mean gambling on the Chinese stock market.
Ok, Keith, here is another one. You don't have to post me as long as you get the info and pass it on.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/latest/200707300932/investors_watching_nz_share_market
My bet is that there is still alot of cash out there and those who think the pullback is a buying opportunity. so Up 50-100 points. I overall believe the markets are peaking, and the down cycle will begin. what do you think of shorting Home Depot(HD), they are going to the bond markets to buyback shares...will they get the funding with the liquity issues in the market?.
Good link in Telegraph - nice work
More Asia and Aussie news? Post here
US slump sparks fears of freefall
THE prospect of a solid correction of Australian equities has intensified, with fresh forecasts of a share market freefall of up to 12 per cent.
This comes as investors brace for a dour session today, with the likelihood that benchmark indices will open about 70 points lower.
Analysts have started to speculate as to whether market volatility has implications for monetary policy as the Reserve Bank prepares to meet next week.
ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said yesterday the market tanking this week could be enough to persuade the bank to keep the cash rate on hold at 6.25per cent.
Bitter Renter said...
If it crashes as many of you think and, it appears, hope it will do, will you cheerlead for the end to our system of capitalism? What else would be your motivation for wanting to see the system crash and burn? Why the glee then?
Me, I'd love to see the end to our system of capitalism but I fear that what would preplace it would be a modern version of the feudal system, something we're already approaching.
Interesting though, how many of you seem so hostile to a system most of you probably embrace. At least publicy. That may be the key.
Yes I will dance on the grave of Capitalism. Capitalism has done nothing for me and I hope it dies a slow painful death just like the corrupt political system that allowed it to flourish. This is hopefully the end of the mess boomers have made for us. There are several deep schisms is this country right now and I am not sure it ends peacefully. I do not think that relations between races and generations have ever been worse as long as I have been alive. Everyone hates everyone else.
DJIA up 500 by Friday.
Drop of less than 200
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Gold and silver not up much in Asian trading but are up.
Recommended blog from someone with some economic common sense and insight into the Florida housing market.
http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/
Mortimer: "Get back in there, Beeks, and sell, Sell, SELL!"
I say down 250 or 300. I'll bet a lot of J6Ps have been moving money out of mutual funds all weekend, trying to lock up profits, just like I did (but I did it 2 months ago!).
That's a lot of money moving out of the money, more than Helicopter Ben and his PPT gangsters can reasonable pump into it.
-- Judge Smales
"You'll get nothing and like it"
burnbabyburn, if you live in Amerikwa then capitalism has done something for you. Try Zimbabwe and its rat eating world of economic bizzaro world if leftist politics are more to your liking. Or, you could try semi- commie China where this blog is most likely not available.
I don't hate capitalism for the most part but I do see the problems that it has. OTOH, everyone in the Kwa benefits from it.
As for cheerleading, I can only say that things are way overextended, the Fed is a fraud and people are living in a fantasyland of McMansions and drive thru diets. They need some lean times to give them perspective.
The whole housing thing reminds me of the SandL business back in the eighties. You may not remember that, or may not have even been born (since most anticapitalist, Che t shirt wearing types are college students regurgitating the tripe their professors stuff in their heads and constitute the religion of the left). I am assuming a lot about you but I see the kind of posts like yours all over the net from misled but well meaning college age kids who dream of the woodstock days of peace, love and dope, which they wouldn't have had without the capitalist infrastructure.
Cheapest Stocks in 16 Years Entice Investors After $2.1 Trillion Decline:
----------------
I could be wrong but with all this liquid disappearing into thin air...would this seem like a grand scheme to halt inflation..or at least assume a halt ....I don't know just a beer induced question.
My bad:...I meant to add at the end:
Ye Ole Pump & dumP
New Zealand down 0.5% so far in Monday trading
burn baby burn,
You are a true imbecile. Capitalism has done nothing for you? Who do you think produced the computer you used to type that idiotic post? Here's a hint; a PRIVATE company you fucknut. Google, another PRIVATE company hosts this blog. The electricity powering your computer is provided by a PRIVATE company. The ISP that allows you access to read this blog is provided by a PRIVATE company.
In the span of the 30 seconds it took you to badmouth capitalism, you used capitalism 4 times.
You are a retard and I hope to God you do not ever reproduce.
Financials usually lead the stock market, but it has been the opposite lately. The banks and Wall St goons are crashing while the DOW/SP500 are not that far off the highs. My guess is that energy has become a greater part of those two indices.
July 30, 2007 07:45am
THE dollar has started the week lower after continuing its rapid fall over the weekend as investors locked-in profits amid high risk conditions.
The currency tumbled more than two and a half US cents on Friday after jitters about the US mortgage sector sparked a sell-off in global equity markets, which started a flight to safe investments.
Versace-trimmed helicopters and the bubble that keeps on growing.
Matt Marks, Managing Director, Marks Strategies.
Working on Wall Street when the tech wreck happened in 2000 was a lesson in the first rule of market corrections. They just happen.
Sure the danger signs are there but all those Market Strategists who were talking new paradigm the previous week were suddenly talking an overdue correction the day after.
No-one ever gets it right; there are those who warn of excess and those who ignore it.
While the fundamentals and valuations in various global equity markets like the US are not overstretched there remain a multitude of reasons to be concerned as to where equity markets are headed.
I received an email from an Investment Bank on Friday offering me an array of new investment options including exposure to the Chinese and Indian markets. The Shanghai Index doubled in 2006 and is up over 50% in 2007 while the Indian Sensex has doubled over the past three years.
Harvard MBA grads are falling over themselves to get jobs at the world’s leading private equity funds and global hedge funds. Harvard grads are a great indicator of corrections as they all flooded into dotcoms in 1999 and Investment Banks in 1987.
In a neverending game of "mine is bigger than yours" private equity funds keep upping the size of deals they are trying to do taking on ever-increasing amounts of leverage.
Perhaps though it is when financial market excess spills over into popular culture and the fashion industry that you truly know the correction is near.
I remember once sitting on a flight in the US next to a senior executive from Neiman Marcus who recalled the Tech Boom days when dot-commers would send back $25,000 watches because they were not "big" enough. His observation was telling. When you can start telling story after story of excess in high-end retail something nasty is coming.
Versace announced in March an arrangement with the Italian company AgustaWestland to produce tailored helicopter interiors for their range of commercial and personal helicopters. The Versace CEO was quoted as saying, "Interior design for helicopters is a natural extension with the Versace world."
Oh, but things are "different" this time. There is of course no bubble.
http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?p=678514#post678514
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0416.html
From May 4, 07
It's been more than 10 years since Dallas-based investment manager David Tice launched this mutual fund to hoard gold, short the market and prepare ordinary investors for the coming economic Armageddon.
We spoke last week, just after the Dow topped 13,000.
"That's really irrelevant," Tice says of the landmark. "It's just a number." Does the market's seemingly inexorable rise shake his conviction that it's going to collapse? "It's been quite a rally," he acknowledged. "But it doesn't dissuade us in our opinion. We've never been more confident."
The Dow, he predicts, will fall "at least 50%" from these levels, and he says the market is only months away from beginning a sharp decline. "I think this is a topping pattern," he says.
"We think it's probably three to six months away from a significant decline." He calls the latest rally "a crack-up boom. At the tail end of credit excess it just gets crazier and crazier. It sucks people in, and it's an extremely dangerous scenario."
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/fundmorning/10354751.html
Utter and complete collapse of the world markets by ohhhhh....Thursday afternoon.
Bank on it.
burnbabyburn, if you live in Amerikwa then capitalism has done something for you. Try Zimbabwe and its rat eating world of economic bizzaro world if leftist politics are more to your liking. Or, you could try semi- commie China where this blog is most likely not available.
Well I was alive during the S&L mess in the 80's. Didn’t a Bush have something to do with that mess as well? Yeah that’s right thanks Neil. I do have a Che t shirt it says "Resist Oppression" I also have Malcolm X t-shirt that says “By Any Means Necessary”. As for your offer to leave no thanks I think I will stay a change this country. Remember I am on the inside of the Government. Forty years ago there would have been hearings to get people like me out of the Government but today we get promoted and get a little stronger each and every day. So to you I say your time has passed you are going the way of the Dinosaurs. See you on the other side of the barricades you will be first one in the reeducation camp. O and if you think I am going to pay for your Social Security and Medicaid you have your pills mixed up. Hope you like working till the day you die!
Hey Trader (private fund manager),
if I marked to model, i'd be up over 6 HUNDRED percent.
I think The Bear Stearns funds were up big YTD, before the bottom dropped out with their CDO's.
But the big question to you is this;
What is your leverage position? Are you maxed out? If you are, only a few bad bets will erase all the other gains, just like, er...
that Bear Stearns company (again) and Warren Buffet.
Hope you know what you are doing...
or else, it is lawsuit city for you buddy.
-------------
All finance houses are busy sending out those margin calls. Only an up market will stop the bleeding, so the PPT will (should) buy futures hard pre-open.
I see the market up early (100-200), give it back slowly throughout the day, then sell off late (like Friday).
Down 150-200 Monday.
I anticiapte #3 is the most accurate, specifically I perict that the drop will be about 250 points.
What happens over the next month or so should be very interesting.
http://tinyurl.com/2f3rsr
500+ points decline.
went to several open houses today. As usual I give people the benefit of the doubt that things are better than my pessimistic point of view. As usual, I'm wrong. Things are worst than my pessimistic view of the housing market in Montana.
I think we'll see option #1 - a huge run-up as they try to short-squeeze the folks holding puts and short positions.
That won't cure the underlying rot and I expect to be down 1000 more (at least) by mid-August.
Down significantly as part of an overall 15% slide by the end of the year.
5% drop at least. Huge vol. Homebuilders and financials will get killed. Many won't recover.
My guess is that the powers-that-be will put something together to stave off a 1929 style crash. But the hand writing is on the wall. Watch out later in the year.
BWA HA HA HA
Japan up
OZ up
Hong Kong up
You idiots calling 1000 down day on the dow...
only one word to describe this
DOPES
Since I have been asked to comment on tomorrow, and I have enjoyed this blog for quite a while, I guess I should first give kudos to the creator then rain bird poop on the parade.
I concur with the CNBsC trader on Friday night who said we have at least 400 more points of potential to the downside. This is not, I repeat NOT, the "BIG ONE". It is more than likely a warm up like the downward spikes of the market in late 1929 before the fall disaster. There are other parallels as is in 1836, 1893, and 1907, but this one is "different" for lack of a better phrase.
The "big one" comes this fall as the prime market craps out and the realization (which I've already spoken and written about) that the commercial paper is swirling down also in October.
Tomorrow? Down 200-400 probably. Tuesday, up 150 plus. Wednesday through Friday-Neutral. Just doing this on the technicals. AHM will probably start to die tomorrow and CFC will rally to kill the shorts (Thank you ML, Citi, etc.).
I'll be speaking to this further and if you wish to throw darts are just give a shout out:
john@johngaltfla.com
believer said...
Would that mean if it falls 700 points would we be getting closer to the great depression drop so many people have said this looks like. And if so what about the jobs market and consumer confidence.
==========
UGH! Great depression drop? Dude the depression was not caused by the stock market drop. Get a clue please.
DOW and S&P swing wildly all day, finish flat. PPT team helps with that. CFC , NFI , LEND, IMB, and AHM-especially- finish way down. HBs flat. Larry "Goldilocks" Kudlow will say in the PM that it's back to the "Greatest story never told." Tuesday the you know what hits the fan with the DOW down 500 plus. All indices bounce on Wed. 8/1 and then the selling resumes Thursday and Friday. Best of luck!
PPT will save the day. DOW will be up by 50 to 200 points.
Paul E. Math has it. Whatever happens, it's only partially real. So, monkeybusiness as usual and a 1% drop, how's that?
Up 150
down down 250 early on but bouncing back to a loss of only 120.
ftse down 223 (we worry about your bad news more than you do!)....
Might dip in the AM, rally 100+ points by EOD. It has the potential for being one of the biggest up days ever (nominally)
Housing has always taken the rest of the markets with it. Be it the stock market or bonds. This time it will be worse. Just wait until the huge U.K. and Western European market bust. That should be happening in 5-6 months! How do I know? Elementry, just look at the loan resets and the inventory! The U.K. market will be worse than the U.S.
Down about 120 points for a day. But will recoup most losses in 2 weeks.
It will be positive. Futures are positive and Asian Markets did not panic.
Now I am off to bed with visions of crashes dancing in my head.
It is a race to the bottom now!
Asian markets dawn in negative, extending worries of last week
Asian stocks declined in the initial sessions of trade on Monday (July 30), extending last weeks fears and worries. The Asian markets witnessed its worst closing in the last four months, on Friday (July 27).
The markets declined on speculations that the reduction in the housing growth will slow down the growth in the world`s biggest economy. On Wednesday, last week the National Association of Realtors of USA announced that sales of existing homes had dropped 3.8% in June to its lowest rate in more than 4 years.
The world`s largest automaker by market value, Toyota Motor and Hon Hai Precision Industry, the biggest contract manufacturer, led the declines. Exporters such as Canon and Nintendo also fell after the Yen strengthened against the Dollar, reducing the value of their overseas sales.
Japanese benchmark index, Nikkei, lost 172.64 points, or 1%, to trade at 17,111.17.
Hong Kong`s index Hang Seng lost 53.57 points, or 0.29%, to trade at 22,516.84.
China`s Shanghai Composite rose 47.24 points, or 1.09%, to trade at 4,392.60.
Taiwan`s index Taiex declined 94.48 points, or 1.03%, to trade at 9,067.80.
South Korea`s KOSPI gained 2.98 points, or 0.16%, to trade at 1,886.20.
Singapore`s Straits Times rose 18.22 points, or 0.52%, to trade at 3,510.92 (8.10 a.m. IST, Monday).
7/29/07, As of 8:45PM San Diego time:
NIKKEI 225 17,111.17 -172.64 -1.00% 22:30
HANG SENG INDEX 22,531.54 -38.87 -0.17% 22:36
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 6,062.20 -20.70 -0.34% 23:36
To the person who said capitalism created teh computer, the internet, etc.
The things you mentioned were offshoots of the defense indsutry, a SOCIALISTIC system whereby the GOVERNMENT using tax dollars from ALL OF US paid private industry to invent things. The resulting technologial advances were then used to create products for the non-militarty sector. The internet itself was a defense dept invention paid for BY ALL OF US in a socialistic system.
Capitalism INHIBITS innovation by causing people to guard knowledge for their own profit rather than share it to further the culture. That has been proven time and again, particularly in the field of medicine.
Capitalism is a POX on any society.
Keith,
Monday will be the day bro.
Dow Down 600-700 points.
RayNLA
I know it's looking bad but remember back in late Feb when the dow fell 400 something ? Evidence of containment breach were starting to show, but they were denied and swept under the rug. I'm sure there'll be more bad news like ahm and more carry trade unwind, however I feel like this isn't the big crash yet.
Here's the game plan for next week- all indices and commodities down another 2-5%, in the meantime Helicopter Ben and the talking heads will dismiss any and all problems and repeating over and over "the world economy will bale us out, it's all about the world economy". Major issues won't make the front page and two weeks from now the dow will begin a slow climb that will break 14750 several months from now and then maybe the market will finally crash . I believe by then it will be appearant that the recession/depression/end of the world has begun.
My forecast for tomorrow is the dow down 150-250.
Is there not a stop on how far the market can drop in one day?
Futures are up as of 11pm PST:
http://tinyurl.com/4spze
I just hope I can buy some mortgage company puts before they get too expensive, especially AHM which could sink to "delisted".
Speaking of the hang seng index;
Everybody Wang Chung tonite!
From what I've been learning, the U.S. is not nearly the largest consumer of metals and raw materials except for oil. If the oils and materials lose value, it seems like a buying opportunity to me.
All the other crap that people don't need like "iphones", I will not be risking my money on.
"Capitalism is a POX on any society."
But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao. You ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow.
Buy low, sell high. Tomorrow we will be low. What's the problem?
Up 200 points since PPT will come out bitching with money smelling fresh ink. PPT likes to hit the market between noon and 2 pm. Just watch the graph tomorrow and remember what I said. Paulson should also get a pad in China, since he lives more there than here. Either he likes the food or is probably asking the Chinese mafioso government to hold the market. Don't believe a word that come out of the White House, Fed, Paulson, MSM, Bernanke, etc. It's all a con game.
My bet is that the "plunge Protection Team (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team) worked hard over the weekend and probably hatched an "orderly dissolution" of excess speculative gains in the market.
My best guess is that the Dow will continue to decline 100-200 points over the next few days. The S&P mau decline by 10+ points on each day which will hurt more.
market SHOULD fall. everybody expects it to fall. so it will probably be up 1-2%.
I agree with bostongrrl, at this point too many people are shrugging it off and pulling out the 'ol "I've been around long enough to watch markets go up and down."
IMHO, there's been a serious crack in the foundation here, but that realization is a long way from being a part of public consciousness. No matter, the seeds of possible doubt have been planted and (in the privacy of their own minds) people have already rehearsed at least one scenario of "what do I do if it crashes."
I personally think it will be late Fall before we reach a tipping point. That should be the time when the pond of available corporate credit has become a puddle and the NODs are reaching levels (and into levels of A rated debt) that were thought unimaginable.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
bitter renter and his stupidity are back. we missed ya buddy
PPT: the new black helicopter
China up 2.2% overnight.
HK up 0.8%
Nikkei up a little
Good luck with the 1000 drop this morning.
Let's go with between 200-400.
I'm rooting for about an 800 point drop but I'll take anything negative.
S&P up 0.5%, down 0.5%, back to up slightly...all in 20 minutes, jeezuz
Well, the doom predicted doom hasn't happenned yet. 10:24 and DJIA is up 0.12%, the S&P is up 0.27%.
Remember, most of the money flowing on Wall Street is OPM, and traders make money on the churn. There is a systemic bias towards hope and the market will bounce up a lot even when the fundamentals are dragging it down.
.
.
SOME CRASH!!!!
.
.
700 POINTS!....FUNDS FAILING!!!!!
.
.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
.
.
unreal....iDIOTS!
DOW down 40 points on Monday then start to rebound the rest of the week.
Lenders and builders getting killed (again). The gift that keeps on giving
The rest of the market held up (so far). Buy on the dips? PPT? Denial?
Everything seems fine on Wall Street today. Maybe the fundamentals DON'T matter anymore.
"Buy on the dips? PPT? Denial?"
Bad prediction on your part? Occam's Magic Eight-ball says yes.
Mortgage stocks sold off again Monday after American Home Mortgage (AHM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) failed to make a dividend payment.
American Home said late Friday it was delaying paying quarterly dividends because of margin calls and writedowns. The news came just a month after American Home warned of a second-quarter loss but pledged to maintain its 70-cent common-stock dividend rate.
Shares of the Melville, N.Y.-real estate investment trust were delayed at the opening Monday after plunging 38% in pre-market trading.
The news sent down shares of other primarily Alt-A lenders, such as IndyMac (IMB - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which dropped 5%, while Impac Mortgage (IMH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) fell 12%. Countrywide Financial (CFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), the largest independent mortgage lender, dropped 2%.
If it crashes as many of you think and, it appears, hope it will do, will you cheerlead for the end to our system of capitalism?
Our system of capitalism has been subverted by a plutocracy that manipulates it to serve it's own ends. It has become a climax forest, where the old tall trees prevent anything smaller from getting enough light to survive on, much less compete. It's ripe for a forest fire.
We aren't cheering the end of capitalism...we are cheering the end of the plutocracy and the rebirth of capitalism.
Yup, bad prediction - but one I didn't have confidence in, since the market is so easily manipulated. But this debt blowup will have a major impact - only question is when and how long.
Meanwhile lenders getting killed again today. IndyMac reports tomorrow should be interesting what that have to say (or don't say)
____________________
So, my prediction for Monday is the #1 day in the history of the world for stock trading volume. Wild swings. And a big loss (700 points) at the end. But I honestly don't have confidence in this prediction - stocks can be wild
American Home Mortgage shares have not yet traded today, and investors are waiting for a heavy shoe to drop. The mortgage lender said late Friday that its banks are demanding it put up more cash after it wrote down the value of its loan and security portfolios. It also said it was suspending its quarterly dividend.
In premarket trading this morning, the company’s shares plunged 42% to $6.08. The stock has already crumbled 67% since the year began, closing at $10.47 on Friday, compared with $31.36 at the end of 2006. AHM isn’t a subprime lender, but it has been dragged down nonetheless by woes in that part of the market, and many investors are worried about what will happen to its adjustable-rate mortgages and Alt-A loans given to prime and “near-prime” borrowers.
At least three analysts have downgraded the stock this morning.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
Some crash
DOPES
Didn't I tell you that the market would be up and that PPT would come out bitching between noon and 2 pm? Look at the graphs and the time. This market is a big scam. PPT was printing money the entire weekend.
I actually was expecting a dead cat bounce today...we'll need some more bad events to cause another one day crash or sustained decline.
Patience, grasshoppers. It will come. The deterioration in the credit markets takes much longer to work its way through than something like the Nasdaq bubble popping.
depresso said...
PPT will save the day. DOW will be up by 50 to 200 points.
Correct!
ppt rally as predicted
"
Patience, grasshoppers. "
But i want it NAAAOOOOWWWWW!!!!
*Stamps foot*
I now believe in the PPT. All the moves up were by HUGE instant spikes, most of the moves down were by smaller increments.
I count 6 PPT spikes, plus some noise!
I am just a Dope. I should go buy a house tonight maybe two.
Dear Trolls,
Crash predictions were wrong, but...it remains to be seen if the fundamental argument - stocks are overvalued - proves wrong, too.
That said, the Great Depression talk is sounding a bit like the Great Pumpkin (today).
I agree that the markets will be "upheld" until some major event happens to blame for the crash like weather or another attack.
It is a get out of jail free card.
[Well I was alive during the S&L mess in the 80's. Didn’t a Bush have something to do with that mess as well? Yeah that’s right thanks Neil. ]
You leftist nuts think that anyone [opposing you is automatically an evangelical billybob Bush cheerleader. Try again.
[I do have a Che t shirt it says "Resist Oppression" I also have Malcolm X t-shirt that says “By Any Means Necessary”.]
Two fucktards that would have been the next Stalins or Pol Pots had they gotten their way. Register at vnnforum.com and I will be happy to trounce you and educate you on a number of things. I post there as deathtozog.
[As for your offer to leave no thanks I think I will stay a change this country.]
We have lived with the 'changes' fucktards like you have wrought since the fifties.
[Remember I am on the inside of the Government. Forty years ago there would have been hearings to get people like me out of the Government but today we get promoted and get a little stronger each and every day.]
LOL, I KNEW you were one of those useless governmental parasites. Only .gov and the healthcare industries are expanding. You will wear your welcome out long before you assume any real mantle of power. Tax rates assure a revolt by those of us that pay taxes.
[ So to you I say your time has passed you are going the way of the Dinosaurs.]
Gee, but I am not even forty yet, punk.
[See you on the other side of the barricades you will be first one in the reeducation camp.]
Now that is funny since I am one of the millions stockpiling beans, bullets and metals. You guys are in for a major suprise. It will be the anemic looking Che Tshirt guys that will be in the camps trying to preach their collectivism to their fellow campers.
[O and if you think I am going to pay for your Social Security and Medicaid you have your pills mixed up. Hope you like working till the day you die!]
LOL, unlike you commies, I don't ever expect anything from the .gov folks like you. gov jobs are for parasites like yourself who cannot make it in the free market.
Another poster said they hope you never reproduce. I agree, though normally idiots like you don't reproduce. Most of you like the inverse Darwinism of allowing third world muds to breed like rats.
Hope to see you on vnn.
PPT: new black helicopter
DOPES
I win...
Rally AND they called the 500+ point drop "nothing to worry about" (think I saw it on CNN or MSNBC).
Either way...the manipulation continues...LOL
To all the DOPES, DOLTS and 1000 Word Douches:
Bl*w me, I was right.
How much did you lose on your shorts? You didn't cover? OH SH*T I feel sorry for you, you'll be working at Pronto Pups for life bro.....
I want today.
I want tomorrow.
I want to lock it all up in my pocket, it's my bar of chocolate.
Give it to me nowwwwwwww.
I agree with keith; The numbers can just be fudged. The M3 numbers are no longer being published, liquidity is being pumped in, I have no idea what the plan is. If the market rises back to $14,000, I'm still going to 70% bonds and 30% stocks in my 401k though...
The plutocracy is just the latter stages of capitalism. The end game is one guy with all the money and everyone else dying in the sun building him a pyramid.
Unregulated capitalism without redistribution of wealth in some form is a bad thing.
I meant Tuesday, not Monday!
>>>Noname said...
I agree that the markets will be "upheld" until some major event happens to blame for the crash like weather or another attack.
It is a get out of jail free card.
July 30, 2007 11:03 PM <<<<
agreed..........kind of like 911.......no telling how much corrupt activity went on both before and after that event...
people think the markets are completely free and moves result from the flows of capital as stocks are bought and sold by americans and others......nothing could be further from the truth.....its all a play and the suckers are getting lined up to take the fall......
and they will ......
Once again, looks like I was a day late, (but NOT a penny short).
My guess didn't happen Monday, but it happened TUESDAY!!!
Story of my life...
I think the pull back in the dow was healthy, and will help keep the bull market sustainable for a longer period of time. The housing market is whats got me worried....
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