July 12, 2007

FLASH: Foreclosures soar a shocking 87% vs. last year. But of course REIC-advertising-supported MSM will report drop in foreclosures today

Here's Yahoo's spin via Reuters (gotta take care of REIC advertisers like LendingTree) and homepage headline:

Home foreclosures fall seven percent

And here's the SF Examiner doing their job, unlike their corrupted peers:

Foreclosure activity rises dramatically - Bay Area defaults, auctions, repossessions nearly triple; nationwide notices are up 87%

And here's some of the lowlights from the actual RealtyTrac report:

RealtyTrac today released its June 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 164,644 foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- were reported during the month, down 7 percent from the previous month but still up 87 percent from June 2006

Nevada, California, Colorado post top foreclosure rates
. With one foreclosure filing for every 175 households in June, Nevada documented a foreclosure rate more than four times the national average and highest among the states for the sixth month in a row.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation's 10 highest in June were Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Connecticut and Indiana.

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

realtytrac has been disproven enough times. It cannot be taken as a reliable source when they double and even triple count some homes in the numbers.

I think it's obvious to anyone with a pulse that foreclosures are rising fast, but I simply can't believe anything realytrac says.

Anonymous said...

Keith, all the articles had the important information. While the titles used seemed misleading, the articles had enough content for all but the most ADD-afflicted readers to see what you've been saying for years. That the real estate slowdown is hitting its stride. Late 2007 through 2008 will be very challenging for the REIC, to put it mildly.

Anonymous said...

Just wait until Washington Mutual comes clean. They were the bubble realty bank. It's a $2 stock waiting to happen.

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith,

Still sitting in cash waiting for your price on gold??

-MC

Anonymous said...

What's the deal with CO?

Cali, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona all make sense because of the bubble. Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana make sense because of auto manufacturing. Georgia has always been populated with idiots. Connecticut - bubbly? Don't understand that one either.

Anonymous said...

WOW, LOOK AT THIS CRASH!
WHAT A BUNCH OF DOPES!

Anonymous said...

The DOW has nothing to do with home prices crashing dummy

Anonymous said...

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Fresh troubles in the subprime segment of the US housing market have reignited fears of contagion that could affect the broad financial sector and possibly the broader economy, analysts say.

Those fears were fanned this week as rating agencies Standard Poor's and Moody's both warned of potential credit downgrades for bonds backed by subprime mortgages, which could affect investors and banks that issued the obligations.

"New data reveals that delinquencies and foreclosures continue to accumulate at an increasing rate," SP said.

"We see poor performance of loans, early payment defaults, and increasing levels of delinquencies and losses."

The news triggered a slide in the US dollar and Wall Street shares on Tuesday as investors reassessed their exposure to risky assets like mortgage-backed securities.

Subprime loans that flourished during the last part of the housing boom provided mortgages to people with poor credit histories, often allowing them to buy homes beyond their means through low "teaser" rates.

wine country dude said...

Not interested here in niggling changes, but FYI: the SF Examiner no longer exists as a serious newspaper (some question whether it was ever a serious newspaper). Seriously, bought by the Fang family 5-6 years ago, (it became, in the parlance, the "Fangxaminer") and has, I believe, disappeared. The article you mention was in the SF Chronicle.

Dazed and Confused said...

Dollar hits lifetime low vs euro on subprime jitters.

Yet the stock market hits a record high. What am I missing?

Here's the link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN2943463220070712

imanidiot said...

The housing crash is well underway. We all know how it will end folks. I think it's time to move on to analysis of this insane stock market...talk about fear of buying at the peak. Or will inflation also catch up to current stock valuations? Or is it a function of the low US$? Is Dow 14000+ a new reality? Were all these calls to move into cash (as I did) just a way to make me lose out on these historical gains? Boy, talk about feeling like an idiot.

Anonymous said...

1929 ALL OVER AGAIN

Anonymous said...

>> WOW, LOOK AT THIS CRASH!
WHAT A BUNCH OF DOPES!

Stop with the name calling, you moron!

Anonymous said...

Dow is up - so there!

eekamous said...

imanidiot said... Were all these calls to move into cash (as I did) just a way to make me lose out on these historical gains? Boy, talk about feeling like an idiot.

July 12, 2007 4:00 PM

I'm in 5.5%cd's exclusively, always have been. My dad is in stocks exclusively. I am up 5.5%, he is down 25.5%.

I'm always plodding along, I'm always ahead.

borkafatty said...

Dow is up - so there!

----------

Man the PPT is working overtime on this speculative gain...but it is pure fairy tail to think that these are real gains...Must be the work of Al-Qaeda.

bickerer said...

Well, the yahoo thing is a nice little article. And you have an ad for some Simon Cowell misadventure on the same page.

I can't figure out why we can't fleece these sheep for everything they're worth tomorrow.

showmenouns said...

Dollar hits lifetime low vs euro on subprime jitters.

Yet the stock market hits a record high. What am I missing?



Could we be seeing stocks going up as a reflection of the reduced value of the dollar ie. inflation? This is confusing.

Anonymous said...

You mean that Albany/Berkeley/Alameda 800 sq foot 1920's craftsman, filled with wood rot and orignal heating systems, on a postage size city lot isnt worth $750K???

DAMN!! I know a lot of bag holders about to be ruined for life!

Anonymous said...

Interesting article on the effects of deadbeat developers in South Hillsborough County. Great photos.

http://www.observernews.net/artman/publish/article_002288.shtml

Marky Mark

Anonymous said...

The housing market is fine. I haven't seen any foreclosures here in Williston, North Dakota. A few of my friends bought iPhones, so that is proof that everything is fine

AuAgPb said...

>> WOW, LOOK AT THIS CRASH!
WHAT A BUNCH OF DOPES!

Stop with the name calling, you moron!


Oh the irony !! Calling us DOPES all this time then doesn't like name calling. I needed that laugh. Thank you.

gordon gekko said...

Dollar hits lifetime low vs euro on subprime jitters.

Yet the stock market hits a record high. What am I missing?

Here's the link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN2943463220070712

July 12, 2007 3:50 PM


i think the euro has been around for what, 5 years now?
it's similar to hearing something like a windows vista pc is cheaper than ever now!

Anonymous said...

Whats the story, the stock market is a rocket! Is this housing crash going to effect the SM. I starting to have second thoughts about this housing crash. Any answers out there why the markets are setting records.

borkafatty said...

The housing market is fine. I haven't seen any foreclosures here in Williston, North Dakota.

-----------

No one who's anyone lives in Williston, North Dakota.

Anonymous said...

"WOW, LOOK AT THIS CRASH!
WHAT A BUNCH OF DOPES!"

Duh. Foreclosures up 87% over same time last year. Attention to detail obviously isn't a 'strength' of yours.

Anonymous said...

>> Oh the irony !! Calling us DOPES all this time then doesn't like name calling. I needed that laugh. Thank you.

You're welcome! And I'm SO glad you responded to my post the way you did! You actually ARE a moron since you can't comprehend the simple irony of my post. Were you born stupid, or did you just become that way?

Anonymous said...

Ok, so here's my take on stock market vs housing market.

Hundreds of thousands of mortgages have defaulted and will default. Most of this mortgage money came from, at the end of the day, Wall Street (CDO's, Bonds, etc.). Now Wall Street knows it's only a matter of time before the bond market takes it in shorts. How do they get their money back?

Simple, pump up the stock market.

Joe six-pack buys an overvalued house and defaults on his mortgage. The seller of the house, if he was smart, didn't put the money back into real estate. It ends up in his investment account (Wall Street knows this is where semi-smart money always ends up).

The bond market is currently taking a hit (sub-prime, alt-a, interest rates, LBO's), and so cash is moving from bonds to stocks. That's why you're seeing the stock market move so high (bond market is easily 10x the stock market).

When the hedgies and institutionals have sufficiently pumped up the stock market where they can recover their bond/cdo/etc. losses, look out.

For now, the stock market is attracting as much cash as it can. Does the Dow seem irrational? That's because IT IS!

If you're all in cash and are comfortable with what you have, stay where you are and buy some popcorn, the show will only get better from here. If you have some extra cash and it doesn't matter if it turns to dust, then you can still make some $$ on the stock market, but by all means, cash investments ONLY (no margin) and roll with the trend (don't bet against the market). Remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

My belief is that this pumped-up market is the only method Wall Street has of getting its money back. And the only way they have of transferring their bond losses to someone else (you!!!!).

Shakster said...

I sais Dow up 100,it gets 200,ok I got the up part right.Thats a rolling transfer of wealth for sure.

Anonymous said...

Hey, the Nas made new highs everyday as it squeezed higher on the shorts. Then the mo-mo ran out and look out below! The same scenario is playing out now.

Anonymous said...

"Markets can remain irrational longer than a trader can remain solvent".

The same bad news overlooked today will be cited for a selloff tomorrow or the next day.

Guy Daley said...

Stick with what you know. And what is it that HPers know? Where the damage is happening. So DOW which is a list of 30 stocks was up 283 points today. But since HPers know the economy is collapsing in areas like Florida, CA, etc, etc we can extrapolate from that. The DOW are mostly international stocks that benefit from a devalued dollar and stock pumping because its the most widely known indice.

HOWEVER PFF Bankcorp, PFB is the stock symbol was down 18.56% today. As of March 31, 2007, it operated 32 full service banking branch offices in eastern Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and northern Orange counties. Here are a list of other banks that didn't feel so well today.

Laggards in Price Performance (Intraday)
PFF BANCORP INC [pfb] -18.56%
COMMUNTY FIRS BCP MD [cfbc.ob] -7.05%
WAKE FOREST BANCSHARES INC [wake.ob] -5.13%
ALLEGIANCE BANK (PA) [abpa.ob] -4.00%
BCSB BANKCORP [bcsb] -3.14%
HORIZON FIN SVCS DEL [hzfs.ob] -2.86%
EQUITABLE FINANCIAL [eqfc.ob] -2.63%
ROMA FINANCIAL CORPO [roma] -2.61%
NORTH CENTRAL BCSH [fffd] -2.57%
PARK BANCORP INC [pfed] -2.42%

Its quite simple, lots of foreclosures = bad local economy except for the stumps that see a silver lining on every foreclosure.

Ruby Tuesdays' down 4.84% today. If you go into a retail on what should be a busy day and its empty, the DOW is unrelated to its profitability. You can probably safely short it and make money.

Keith - Can't you screen the stumps? For gods sake, its like Chinese water torture. You know damn well its the same 16 year old posting over and over again. Screen that assholes posts!!!!

Anonymous said...

Dazed and Confused said...
Dollar hits lifetime low vs euro on subprime jitters.

Yet the stock market hits a record high. What am I missing?

Here's the link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN2943463220070712

July 12, 2007 3:50 PM

------------------

If dollars are worth less, it takes more of them to buy the same number of shares of stock. It makes a certain amount of sense. During the Weimar hyperinflation, stocks sure did a lot better than cash. They still lost ground in terms of gold, but stocks retained some value as long the underlying companies managed to stay in business.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
You mean that Albany/Berkeley/Alameda 800 sq foot 1920's craftsman, filled with wood rot and orignal heating systems, on a postage size city lot isnt worth $750K???

DAMN!! I know a lot of bag holders about to be ruined for life!

July 12, 2007 5:04 PM

-------------------

I think I would have to be PAID (and paid well) to live in the Jerkeley area.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
Ok, so here's my take on stock market vs housing market......"
July 12, 2007 8:24 PM

thanks for posting this analysis. sounds fairly plausible to me and a good warning for folks not to chase after a sucker's rally.

Macaca

Anonymous said...

Mosquitoes move in
Disease-prone pests thrive in the stagnant pool water of empty homes in Fresno-Clovis area.

"It's a nice neighborhood. You would never guess a pool like this would be here."

A proliferation of unsold houses in a tight real-estate market is giving mosquitoes a bonanza of breeding opportunities -- even during an exceptionally dry year, officials say.

That has elevated concerns about the West Nile virus, a mosquito-borne disease that can be fatal.

Real-estate agents estimate that 4,000 to 6,000 unsold Fresno and Clovis homes are on the market. On average, it's taking 77 days to sell a house here, according to a report from the Fresno Association of Realtors.

Last summer, homes stayed on the market for about 48 days before being sold. In 2005, they were sold in less than a month, the report said.

Home foreclosures have been on the rise in the Fresno and Clovis area. The number of foreclosure notices sent to homeowners in Fresno County has more than doubled between the first quarter of 2006 and this year's first quarter -- from 540 to 1,116 -- according to DataQuick Information Systems, a private company that tracks home sales.

http://www.fresnobee.com/
263/story/82640.html

Anonymous said...

Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in June with one filing for every 175 households, more than four times the national average of one per 704, RealtyTrac said. Nevada had 4,722 foreclosure filings, more than three times its total a year ago.

California Soars

California had the second-highest rate, with one filing per 315 households, and the most filings overall, 38,801, for the sixth month in a row. Foreclosures in California, the most populous state, increased almost three-fold over a year ago.

Colorado had the third-highest rate with one foreclosure per 317 households. Florida was fourth with one per 347, followed by Arizona with one per 383, Ohio with one per 403 and Michigan with one per 420.

Six of the top 10 U.S. foreclosure rates for metropolitan areas were in California. Stockton, Merced, Modesto and Riverside- San Bernardino occupied the top four spots. Vallejo-Fairfield was seventh and Sacramento eighth.

Las Vegas had the fifth-highest foreclosure rate, Greeley, Colorado was sixth, Detroit was ninth and Miami was 10th.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
adIQXu4IeMsA&refer=home

Anonymous said...

The current median is nearly $50,000 more than it was a year ago, but that doesn't mean Silicon Valley is enjoying a boom market.

Far from it.

The higher median price has been boosted by home sales this year concentrated in the more expensive housing submarkets where mortgage money remains more readily available. Buyers looking for homes in less expensive areas are getting stung by stiffer controls placed on underwriting, especially riskier subprime and nontraditional home loans.

The controls are fallout from the force of foreclosures sweeping the nation. In May, foreclosures were up 90 percent nationwide, compared to the number in May 2006, according to RealtyTrac.

Along with those losing homes to foreclosure, more are finding it difficult to buy a home today which they perhaps could have found financing for a year ago.

It's not certain how much additional pressure recent federal rules -- effective immediately -- will have on the market but federal monetary regulators' "Statement on Subprime Mortgage Lending" codified what many lenders had already been doing -- tightening the purse strings of risky loans.

Subprime loans didn't take off in California like they did in some other states but within some California regions there are pockets where subprime loans, combined with the also risky "Alt-A" or nontraditional mortgages, were the financial tools of choice for the vast majority of home buyers.

"On the East Side, I would say 80 percent, at least," used riskier mortgages to buy homes said Robert Aldana, a real estate agent with LetsTalkRealEstate.com in San Jose who works the market.

"It's killing the market on the East Side. It's having a worse effect than people think. A home that was worth $625,000 last year, right now you are lucky if you can get $575,000. In three or four months it will be worth $520,000, in some East San Jose, Blossom Valley and downtown San Jose areas," Aldana added.

http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/
20070712_inversemark.htm

Anonymous said...

For the first half of the year, the seven-county Denver area logged more than 12,000 foreclosures, a 25 percent increase over the first six months of 2006.

And expect them to keep piling up for several more years.

In certain neighborhoods, the current foreclosure problem is worse than it was in the late 1980s, said real estate broker Beverly Meade.

"Some whole areas are being turned into ghost towns," she said.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/
drmn/real_estate/article/
0,1299,DRMN_414_5625016,00.html

Anonymous said...

Foreclosure filings in Delaware rocketed to a record high over the past year, up 29.5 percent from the previous year, court records show.

Delaware recorded 2,962 mortgage foreclosure filings in fiscal year 2007, which ended June 30, up 20 percent from the state's previous record in 2003. Delaware filings for the month of June were higher than any month of the year in all three counties.

http://www.dailytimesonline.com/
apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
20070711/NEWS01/70711002/1002/
NEWS01

Anonymous said...

Top 10 Foreclosure ZIP Codes
Zip City State Total Filings
44105 Cleveland OH 783
30310 Atlanta GA 709
80219 Denver CO 705
48228 Detroit MI 679
95823 Sacramento CA 634
48205 Detroit MI 634
48224 Detroit MI 583
89031 N. Las Vegas NV 575
80239 Denver CO 553
48219 Detroit MI 549

http://forums.craigslist.org/
?ID=67691734

Anonymous said...

Chalk one up for one MSM outlet at least. Tonight, NBC Nightly News accurately reported the foreclosure number: 87% and clearly tagged it YOY (2006/2007).

And to put icing on the cake, they followed up directly with a feature piece focusing on Temecula, California, arguably ground zero for the meltdown.

Lot's of imagery of house ofter house with 'Bank Owned' for sale signs in front vacant sh*tboxes galore with ample dead lawns and landscape.

Even the most brain-dead could not miss the message in the news story.

A real final nail in coffin of buyer sentiment.

As for another canary in the coalmine, I dropped by a condo complex where I sold at the peak in early 2006.

I do it about every 90 days to see how things compare with the last visit.

Previously visits saw lots and lots and lots of for-sale signs, sitting month after month after month. No sales, no real changes in scenery per se. Status quo.

This time, it's suddenly starting to look markedly worse. The condos that were previously for sale are now virtually all vacant. Signs 'For Rent' now sitting in the windows.

On top of that, an entirely new crop of 'For Sale' condos adding to the existing vacant for-rent units.

Many of the newer for-sale signs now are displayed by a well known nationwide foreclosure specialty Real Estate company.

The place is starting to resemble a ghost-town. Something i'd never thought could ever happen there. This, in a place that for 20 years never had a vacancy factor whatsoever. Always a wait to find a rental and top dollar to buy-in.

To me, the housing crash is clearly entering a new phase. The downward spiral increasing in velocity. Judging from the tempo of things, the fall/holiday season, IMHO, should start to see some of the more serious fallout starting to occur. (i.e.) Key banking institution failures, etc.

Real trouble is not far off at all.

Anonymous said...

dow goes up HP says that is proof of housing crash

dow goes down HP says that is proof of housing crash

I see you all take a page out of the Al Gore playbook: too much snow means proof of global warming, too little snow means proof of global warming

wells fargo wagon said...

Wells Fargo is really the one that's going to get hammered. Countrywide too. Way worse than wamu. They were handing out subprime loans like selling crack to hos the past couple years.

Anonymous said...

Fresno-area foreclosure rate triple the national average in June

The number of Fresno-area properties headed into foreclosure climbed 24% in June, as the moribund real estate market showed no signs of perking up.

Fresno's foreclosure rate was 13th among 229 metropolitan regions -- and triple the national average -- according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for troubled properties. About 1,188 foreclosure filings were reported in June in Fresno County.

California has been particularly hard hit, with the second-highest foreclosure rate in the nation -- one filing for every 315 households, RealtyTrac reported. Stockton, Merced, Modesto and Riverside/San Bernardino counties held the top four spots, with rates that were more than five times the national average.

Other California metropolitan areas in the Top 10 were Vallejo/Fairfield at No. 7 and Sacramento at No. 8.

Tulare County finished at No. 33 in the country.

California foreclosure rates have soared as home sales and values fell after a five-year run-up came to a halt -- and hammered homeowners who were not able to refinance unfavorable loans, or couldn't sell their houses.

"We're not seeing any recovery," said Ken Neufeld, a veteran real estate agent at London Properties.

Since January, an average of about 350 houses have been sold each month.

That compares with 735 transactions in June 2005, when the market was at its peak, Neufeld said.

Meanwhile, listings stay on the market an average of 77 days, up from 22 in June 2005.

The median price has fallen from $290,000 in 2005 to $281,000, although appraisers say the actual decline is higher.

That's because sellers often give money to the buyers as a condition of sale. Neufeld said the concessions average $5,000 to $6,000, although some are higher.

Nationally, signs were encouraging. Foreclosure filings fell 7% in June from May, although they were up 87% from a year earlier.

"Foreclosure activity subsided somewhat in June after hitting a 30-month high in May. And the drop in activity was fairly broad, with 33 states reporting month-over-month decreases," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

http://www.fresnobee.com/
170/story/84692.html

Anonymous said...

Florida had the second highest total of foreclosure filings in June, according to RealtyTrac Inc.'s June 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.

Florida reported 21,035 foreclosure filings during the month, a 3 percent decrease from the previous month but more than double the number reported in June 2006. The state's rate of one foreclosure filing for every 347 households was more than twice the national average and ranked fourth highest among all the states.

http://www.bizjournals.com/
jacksonville/stories/2007/07/
09/daily27.html?from_rss=1

Anonymous said...

North Las Vegas Zip Code 1 of 10 Worst For Foreclosures

A zip code-by-zip code analysis found that an area of North Las Vegas has one of the nation's 10 worst rates of home foreclosure. Our area has 8 in the top 100, and according to the numbers from Realty Trac, we also have 24 zip codes in the top 500.

The largest number of foreclosures in our area have occurred in the North Las Vegas zip code 89031 -- the 8th worst in the nation. 89131, 89148, and 89129 also ranked in the top 50.

Eric Banks moved to Las Vegas from California a few years ago. Work was steady, it was a buyer's market, so he bought a home in Summerlin. Today, he is close to losing his home to foreclosure, because he can't make the mortgage payments.

"The only option is to sell or foreclose," said Banks. He lives in a neighborhood he loves, but the home he lives in won't be his for much longer.

"I'm unable to make the payments. I'm watching the value of my house drop," he said. He's missed his mortgage payment twice and says there is nothing he can do about it.

http://www.lasvegasnow.com/
global/story.asp?s=6770879

Anonymous said...

Foreclosures' furious pace
San Joaquin Valley is 1st, Merced 2nd, Stanislaus 4th in nation's mortgage defaults

About $925 million worth of mortgages have been foreclosed on since January in the Northern San Joaquin Valley, and 2,575 homes have been auctioned off on courthouse steps in Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Merced counties.

During June alone, there were 203 home foreclosure auctions in Modesto at which lenders tried to recover what they could from $66 million in delinquent loans, according to the ForeclosureRadar research firm.

http://www.modbee.com/local/
v-rssxml/
story/13780317p-14360827c.html

Anonymous said...

In the Bay Area, the number of foreclosure notices has nearly tripled since last year.

California has the second highest foreclosure rate in the country, behind Nevada and real estate experts believe the situation is only going to get worse before it gets better.

The state's top foreclosure cities -- Vallejo, Fairfield, Stockton, Modesto, Merced, Riverside and San Bernardino.

Broken down by zip code in the Bay Area, neighborhoods in Pittsburg, Antioch and Brentwood had the highest number of foreclosure filings for the month of June.

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/
story?section=business&id=5477156

Anonymous said...

Alabama foreclosure epidemic

Nearly 700 homes in state are in foreclosure proceedings in the Birmingham area.

http://birmingham.bizjournals.com/
birmingham/stories/2007/07/16/
story10.html

Anonymous said...

Foreclosures spike to new heights
Fast-growing Antioch leads the way with highest number of defaults in April, followed by Madison area

Tennessee has one of the 10 worst foreclosure rates in the nation and local real estate experts say the situation is likely to worsen.

http://nashville.bizjournals.com/
nashville/stories/2007/07/16/
story1.html

Anonymous said...

Los Angeles County ranked second in total volume, but dropped to the 34th spot when REO auction figures were weighed against county populations. Meanwhile, the counties of Yuba, Sacramento and San Joaquin rounded out the top four spots on ForeclosureRadar's list of counties with the most foreclosure auction sales.

http://www.dsnews.com/
view_story.cfm?id=1320