Anyone want to predict how far Phoenix median asking price will fall before we see bottom?
But real estate never goes down! It's always a good time to buy! It's different this time! So many people are moving to Phoenix! Phoenix has a great robust diverse economy!
Guess not.
For city by city graphs go to housing-watch.com
June 04, 2007
Phoenix housing crash underway - follow the little blue line... where will it stop?
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If you go to the main page:
http://housing-watch.com/home.aspx
52 Week Highs:
Louisville, KY
Nashville, TN
Philadelphia, PA
52 Week Lows:
Orlando, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
Marky Mark
dude $25K out of $350K is 7%. Had you sold and rented then you'd be barely bteaking even given the costs of selling.
Wake me up when it's 20%.
btw on housing-watch.com you can see that about 1/2 the country's median price is still increasing.
IMHO 55% overall haircut by the time the dust settles
That line is still at 325K. it should be at 150K. Wake me up when its getting serious. This movie is as boring as a soppy love affair before the real war starts.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
You forgot:
They're not making any more land in Phoenix.
Interest rates are at historic lows, the job market is strong.
"Sage (Ben Sage of Metrostudy)thinks the resale market is approaching the bottom and will improve slowly through the rest of the year. As evidence, he said the rate of the decline in sales is slowing."
Chandler "impact fees" up $6000 per house. (That means the local govt. is optimistic)
"Some real estate experts argue that metropolitan Phoenix prices are still attractive compared with California." (HA Take THAT California!)
"Butler is among the optimistic analysts. He thinks the market is in pretty good shape.
"I think we're where we should be," he said. "I don't think there's a big turn where we go back to the hyper market or we fall off the edge."
"New-home analyst RL Brown says 2007 should be the low point and expects gradual recovery to start next year as builders jettison inventory."
"A wave of mid-rise condominiums is spreading across the Valley, with prices for luxury units soaring."
"Narrowing gap between list price and sale price seen as a potentially good sign that things could be improving in the Phoenix housing market
http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?
"
"Countrywide goes on hiring binge to pick up market share."
Don't know where you get your data, but the Phoenix market is in great shape. I'm gonna invest in some pre-construction units near the Scottsdale waterfront. (While we're at the bottom)I'll cash out and watch you bubble sitters sweat in your 1 BR apts..
If you turn the chart upside down, it's doing great!
Anonymous said...
dude $25K out of $350K is 7%. Had you sold and rented then you'd be barely bteaking even given the costs of selling.
Wake me up when it's 20%.
btw on housing-watch.com you can see that about 1/2 the country's median price is still increasing.
_____
I've been watching the Phoenix housing market up close and personal, and the drop from 2005 highs is already well past 20%.
You must be a realt-whore.
Don't know where you get your data, but the Phoenix market is in great shape. I'm gonna invest in some pre-construction units near the Scottsdale waterfront. (While we're at the bottom)I'll cash out and watch you bubble sitters sweat in your 1 BR apts...
===
If the Phoenix market is in "great shape", then please explain why Phoenix housing inventories are soaring.
http://tinyurl.com/pj2kh
Where are YOU getting YOUR data, you ramen-eating realt-whore?
You must be desperate to post such an idiotic bunch of drivel.
Lots of exotic loans are about to reset.
The real carnage hasn't even gotten started, so buckle your seat belts, you fools who say it's boring...
I'm laughing my a$$ off at you guys who are desperately trying to claim all is well!!!
It's hilarious how you people have your heads in the sand!
I've been watching the Phoenix housing market up close and personal, and the drop from 2005 highs is already well past 20%.
You must be a realt-whore.
-----------------------------------
Are you retared? Look at the graph dickhead, it's 7% down ON THE GRAPH.
God almighty has publik education become this bad?
I've been watching the Phoenix housing market up close and personal, and the drop from 2005 highs is already well past 20%.
You must be a realt-whore.
-----------------------------------
Any proof on this up close and personal 20%? Any actual data? Median price? Average price? Price per sq ft? Any piece of data? Anything at all that says 20% price drops? Oh no but you've been watching up close and personal, 'nuff said.
You must be a cretin.
52 Week Highs:
Louisville, KY
Nashville, TN
Philadelphia, PA
52 Week Lows:
Orlando, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
Marky Mark
--------------------------------
You must be a realt-whore too. Anyone who doesn't believe a 90% crash is under way is real-whore.
If the movie is long and boring, why stay in the theater? Go out and buy up those houses 'at the bottom'.
dude $25K out of $350K is 7%. Had you sold and rented then you'd be barely bteaking even given the costs of selling.
So the fliptard sells and loses 7% plus realtors commission plus the closing costs when he first bought the crapbox. Now he's looking at a 15% loss on a $350K house. That comes out to $52,500.
This is the part they don't tell you: Many houses were sold above asking price at the height of the housing ponzi scheme. Today, many of the sellers are selling below asking plus incentives.
FLASH: US dollar is where it was in 2005!!
Oh no the sky is fallig.
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=63213
Couuntrywide goes on hiring binge...
Hmmm I wonder why a mortgage company would go on a hiring binge. Must be all those people NOT buying homes I suppose.
Game over renters. You lose yet again.
Stock markets are hitting new highs and the homedebtors have no money to invest. HAHAHAHAHA
More Countrywide:
The Calabasas-based company said Wednesday that it funded $40 billion in loans in April, up 11% from a year earlier.
Hmmm an 11% increase in mortgage financing...I wonder if that means people are buying more homes. Nahhh, that's just crazy talk.
Conspiracy theory of the day:
Alan Greenspan created the housing bubble to save Social Security and Medicare. ..
- Housing is the largest "asset" for the majority of Americans
- Greenspan lowered interest rates after 9/11 to keep the economy from going into recession
- Greenspan encouraged people to take out ARMS, HELOCS, etc.
- Millions of Americans bought, refinanced, HELOCed, etc. . .
- Housing prices soar on demand
- Fed starts raising interest rates
- Cheap money over, housing prices fall
- Baby Boomers now have huge debt, and can't retire till they are 70 (will die at 77) - they continue to pay into Social Security and Medicare beyond 65.
- Social Security Saved!. . .
SO - the housing panic is good for the overall economy. . .crazy???
think about it. . .
And so ... it's increasing ... so what does that tell you what will eventually happen with these over-inflated prices?
"Anonymous said...
btw on housing-watch.com you can see that about 1/2 the country's median price is still increasing."
These realty "experts" have no choice to speak great about the market even when it's falling apart as it is - their income is dependent on it.
I love Kiyosaki said...
You forgot:
They're not making any more land in Phoenix.
Interest rates are at historic lows, the job market is strong.
"Sage (Ben Sage of Metrostudy)thinks the resale market is approaching the bottom and will improve slowly through the rest of the year. As evidence, he said the rate of the decline in sales is slowing."
Chandler "impact fees" up $6000 per house. (That means the local govt. is optimistic)
"Some real estate experts argue that metropolitan Phoenix prices are still attractive compared with California." (HA Take THAT California!)
"Butler is among the optimistic analysts. He thinks the market is in pretty good shape.
"I think we're where we should be," he said. "I don't think there's a big turn where we go back to the hyper market or we fall off the edge."
"New-home analyst RL Brown says 2007 should be the low point and expects gradual recovery to start next year as builders jettison inventory."
"A wave of mid-rise condominiums is spreading across the Valley, with prices for luxury units soaring."
"Narrowing gap between list price and sale price seen as a potentially good sign that things could be improving in the Phoenix housing market
http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?
"
"Countrywide goes on hiring binge to pick up market share."
Don't know where you get your data, but the Phoenix market is in great shape. I'm gonna invest in some pre-construction units near the Scottsdale waterfront. (While we're at the bottom)I'll cash out and watch you bubble sitters sweat in your 1 BR apts..
If you turm the graph upside down then everything is fine.
As always name calling does nothing to inform or gauge where this crappy bubble is going. I've been back in Phoenix for almost five months and I see no bargains. Yes, I see some significant discounts...in Queen Creek or Maricopa or such where the sterility of the neighborhoods will kill you if not your neighors!
The rest of the market is as unpredictable as Bush and company. I looked at a nice home yesterday in Encanto Palmcroft listed at $618,000. Very nice neighborhood, very nice house with great updates. The house is only 1782 sqft. The sellers bought it in 2005 at the peak of the bubble for $417,500...they have a long way to come down before they loose money even buying at the peak.
I actually would buy the house for what they'd paid for it with all the wondeful upgrades they've done to the house and location but not $618,000. Another I looked at in the WIllo they reduced $100,000....to what they consider a steal at $859,000....NOT. They paid $110,000 for it five years ago. Yes, they added on to it, gutted it and did a two year renovation but it should only be worth maybe $450,000 with what they've done.
And homes are selling...which pisses me off. Prices can't/won't drop fast enough if people keep buying!!!!! My friends got transfered to Houston and paid $500,000 for a house there...they'll be shocked when they get next years property tax bill...however, they did sell their Phoenix home in Estrella ranch they bought in 2004 and moved into in 2005 for full asking price in one week. They didn't loose money and I was shocked they sold let alone sold so fast.
I keep seeing sold signs but the market is quirkey. One house can sit for 7 or 8 months and not sell and the house next door will sell in week.
Trust me, I do think prices here in Phoenix need/must come down 40% but will they? Not if the Real estate establishment that has ruled Phoenix for 50 years has anything to say about it. And the last three land auctions out by Desert Ridge sold for record prices so there has to be some kind of belief the market can support those ridiculous prices.
Any thoughts/
this has been a good one to keep tabs on as well. the numbers posted go back two years to 2005. who knows if any of this stuff is factual - web based stuff is a dime a dozen, but it does dove tail with what I've seen in person, lots of for sale signs.
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/
check out those inventory numbers! that is where the story is at.
Smug Bastard
"While we're at the bottom)I'll cash out and watch you bubble sitters sweat in your 1 BR apts.. "
Knock yourself out. You're a better man than I, Gunga Din!
52 Week Highs:
Louisville, KY
Nashville, TN
Philadelphia, PA
52 Week Lows:
Orlando, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
4:3 ratio of new lows to new highs does not a housing crash make.
Hey HPers,
Are you happy in your 1BR apts, getting 5%?
"Study says home prices not falling"
http://tinyurl.com/26bgxv
Where do I get my data? From the Office of Federal Housing Oversight.
HA, GOTCHA!
Oh and BTW I am not a Realtor(R), who I have utmost respect for, I am a real estate investor....while you are real-estate-o-phobes. Get over it sister!
HOW DARE YOU INSULT MY PROFESSION!!!
Realtors have been around since the dawn of time. In every ancient tale of creation, there are stories of realtors being created before average men, because someone had to sell them the land to farm.
It’s true. In the middle ages, we sold castles with moat upgrades and helped serfs get into starter farms. Without farms, no one would have survived the black plague. That’s right, realtors actually stopped the black plague. And don’t you forget about it.
Watch out when you’re in Phoenix, because I read in Realtor Monthly Magazine that your “no-realtor-flipping-transactions” are actually illegal. Check the books. Only realtor-negotiated transactions in the state of Arizona. It’s a fact. That’s why Phoenix is growing so quickly. It’s posted the highest rate of growth since the years following the Louisiana Purchase.
If you’re not careful, you could get yourself on the Nation Realtor’s blacklist.
Sincerely,
Carmen Sandoval
Greg Swine told me to buy last August. I paid full price and now am 3 weeks away from forclosure. I should have listened.
I am going to rent a house down the street for 40% of my existing mortgage. I actually had to check the credit of the landlord to make sure he wasn't going to get forclosed on. What a difference a year makes.
This market is ugly. Thanks for the advice Greg.
Phoenix:
A legendary bird said to periodically burn itself to death and emerge from the ashes as a new phoenix; according to most versions only one phoenix lived at a time and it renewed itself every 500 years.
There's your a
Okay, this debate can be resolved by data if everyone would submit the numbers. This is what I've got from John Burns Real Estate Consulting:
1. Data compiled on actual home closings across U.S.: sales down 22% year over year
2. MBA Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Application Index: loan applications down 18%
3. Builder Date: D.R. Horton and Lennar - orders have declined 27% to 37% year over year.
4. NAR state by state data: Arizona down 28% year over year.
John Burns data: Arizona down as low as 38% year over year.
In Phoenix:
Housing Watch charts prices in the 75th, median, and 25th percentiles.
In the 75th percentile housing prices have only dropped 1% year over year. But at the low end 25th percentile they've dropped 10% year over year.
Is that significant? I don't know.
But I think prices are a lagging market indicator. The John Burns data is more significant.
Just re-posted this to Bloodhoud table waiting ah, realty. I give it ten minute to live. Nothing else to do in PHX for realtwhores these days.
OK you're right everyone homes in Scottsdale will soon be selling for $125K, San Diego beachfront estates will be had for $175K and in Seattle condos will be going for $45K.
And while I'm in fantasy world Anna Kournikova will be coming over tonight.
It's rather sad to see you renters grasp at these straws. Might as well face facts kidz, you will be living in the 1 bed forever. Maybe one day you'll get promoted to assstant mgr and maybe just maybe afford a 2 bedroom. Dare to dream
I haven't seen much of a crash in Phoenix/Scottsdale either. The model homes in my community have a steady stream of buyers coming in. I got a $375K spec home at $305 just two months ago. Say what you want, but a 5br 3 bath fully upgraded 2300 sq. ft. home is never going to $275k in this area. Never.
Are you retared? Look at the graph dickhead, it's 7% down ON THE GRAPH.
God almighty has publik education become this bad?
-----
No, and I know how to spell "retard" and "public". AND, not being a retard, I look at a lot more than that graph.
I look at reality. You should try it, f00l.
I love Kiyosaki said...
Hey HPers,
Are you happy in your 1BR apts, getting 5%?
"Study says home prices not falling"
http://tinyurl.com/26bgxv
Where do I get my data? From the Office of Federal Housing Oversight.
HA, GOTCHA!
Oh and BTW I am not a Realtor(R), who I have utmost respect for, I am a real estate investor....while you are real-estate-o-phobes. Get over it sister!
======
Since you're a self-described real estate investor, obviously you are desperate to convince yourself that all is well in this critically sick housing market, much like people who held onto NASDAQ stocks from 1999 to 2003.
So you trust in this Office of Federal Housing Oversight to give you the accurate picture, do you?
You are a fool of unforgivably monumental proportions...mainly because you have the utmost respect for realt-whores...well, everything else you've said is idiotic, too...
I pity you to no end.
Anonymous said...
“Hmmm an 11% increase in mortgage financing...I wonder if that means people are buying more homes. Nahhh, that's just crazy talk.”
Wow anon, prices drop, mortgages (i.e. sales) increase, what a concept! Hear that home sellers? Want to sell? Drop the price.
NEW Bubble about to BURST:
Major Retailers announced a huge drop off in winter coat sales. This CRASH is expected to continue well into November, 2007.
Coat-whores are forecasting the declines to bottom out by September. Hah! who are they kidding? They're just in it to make a fast buck!!
I hate coat-whores so I never bought a coat. (Ok, I used to own a coat, but sold it back in 1999 cause coat prices were so high that I knew they would come down and I can buy two coats later). Now I rent my coat from some selfish coat owner and save so much money by paying less money to him that I can eat at BK twice a month! Hah!
Anyway, time for us to fight back against those evil money hungry, people hating, children eating coat-whores by flooding yahoo messanger boards with our "inside knowledge" of the Huge Coat Crash of 2007. Remember this folks, you will be telling your children about the huge coat crash of 2007!
Gotta go now. It's a bit cold in here.
Phoenix and Las Vegas are a mess with supply outpacing demand by a wide margin.
However, Phoenix and Las Veagas will always be premium places to live due to the climate. Florida had a real estate crash in 1926, but that was a temporary blip-up and dramatic sell-off; then soon forgotten. The real aftermath to speculative fever was the 1929 stock market crash.
Eventually the snowbirds and the gamblers will eat away the excess inventory in the desert.
What's coming is either a massive real estate correction globally, or a stock market crash in the face of a global recession and weak dollar (or potentially both). Phoenix and Las Vegas could actually be recovering in the face of a stock market crash; boomers will keep retiring to better climates.
Those that stay tuned too long to the Florida real estate crash of 1926 would've missed the bigger event.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.
Mark Rhymes
www.marketrhymes.com
LA median drops $50k? Yes! I like the smell of equity vaporizing in the morning!
In reality, have renters ever won?
I'd pay 120K for the standard 4 bed / 2 bath place in Phoenix.
Add a good Scottsdale address plus a nice pool and nieghbors without a criminal record and that are not illegal Mexicans then I'd go up to around 180K.
I'd better buy ten houses now. Real estate only goes up, forever. Within 10 years all homes in the Phoenix area will be worth $10,000,000. The nicer ones, $30,000,000.
I'm glad I listened to my local Realtor. They are only looking out for my best interests. That's what they told me.
I love Kiyosaki said...
Hey HPers,
Are you happy in your 1BR apts, getting 5%?
"Study says home prices not falling"
http://tinyurl.com/26bgxv
Where do I get my data? From the Office of Federal Housing Oversight.
HA, GOTCHA!
Oh and BTW I am not a Realtor(R), who I have utmost respect for, I am a real estate investor....while you are real-estate-o-phobes. Get over it sister!
June 04, 2007 8:02 PM
----------
Hey Kiyosuckmeoff:
Here's another report that you overlooked from the same website/news source. Home prices are appreciating but at a rate less than inflation. Guess what that means realtwhore, it means the asset is depreciating!!
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/04/real_estate/bc.usa.housing.freddie.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007060415
Also note the study predicts price appreciation will be slowing even further!!
I can't believe the median asking price in Phoenix is so high compared to places like Dallas and Chicago that have much higher paying jobs. There is no doubt the run up was caused by Califlippians who are now losing thousands of dollars a month per crapbox. Those houses were built for flipping, not habitation. They will be collapsing in 5-10 years, much like the dotcom companies.
Scientists predict Southwest Mega Drought
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17967097/
It won't be long and they'll have to fill in those pools and get rid of those damn grass lawns. It'll be real interesting to see what happens when Lake Powell and Lake Mead are empty. Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tucson DEPEND on the Colorado for a major % of its water supply. (Ground water too but the wells are drying up, hehe)
Hey trolls don't worry, prices WILL be coming down for the Phoenix area.
Suddenly the dollar is looking sweet...
I'm dumping chattel for U$D.
The yellow metal goes too.
-7.1% + 6.0% lost interest, is -13.1% in a year. Not an insignificant drop.
Also April and May are the good times for prices. Just wait until September.
Also wait until the economy slows down. Right now almost everyone has a job. This thing is just getting started.
"Phoenix has a great robust diverse economy!"
That's my favorite line of BS! NO IT DOESN'T!!!!!
The Phoenix area "economy" is almost entirely based on real estate. 1 out of 20 people or something like that in Phoenix is a realtwhore. Take away the real estate "profession" - and it's going away fast - and the entire metro area sinks into a depression.
www.scottsdale-sucks.com
Anonymous said...
In reality, have renters ever won?
June 05, 2007 1:16 AM
--------------
Since when are the different consumer options for obtaining shelter viewed as creating a form of competition? Oh that's right to instigate income for the REIC realtwhores and trolls.
Anonymous said...
NEW Bubble about to BURST:
Major Retailers announced a huge drop off in winter coat sales. This CRASH is expected to continue well into November, 2007.
Coat-whores are forecasting the declines to bottom out by September. Hah! who are they kidding? They're just in it to make a fast buck!!
I hate coat-whores so I never bought a coat. (Ok, I used to own a coat, but sold it back in 1999 cause coat prices were so high that I knew they would come down and I can buy two coats later). Now I rent my coat from some selfish coat owner and save so much money by paying less money to him that I can eat at BK twice a month! Hah!
Anyway, time for us to fight back against those evil money hungry, people hating, children eating coat-whores by flooding yahoo messanger boards with our "inside knowledge" of the Huge Coat Crash of 2007. Remember this folks, you will be telling your children about the huge coat crash of 2007!
Gotta go now. It's a bit cold in here.
June 05, 2007 12:00 AM
------------
OMG how pathetic, get a life realtwhore REIC trolls. Oh that's right you have no income now and only have time to try in vain to goad people into destroying their finances just so you can make a commission to keep up with your lexus payments!! FYI/NEWSFLASH, YOU'RE A LOOOOOSSSSERRRR!!! Go start doing something productive for society by flipping some burgers!!
devestment said...
Suddenly the dollar is looking sweet...
I'm dumping chattel for U$D.
The yellow metal goes too.
June 05, 2007 5:08 AM
=================================
HUH? I thought gold was supposed to hit $1000 as hyperinflation was coming.
Damn you tinfoilhatters change your mind quickly.
flip that turd said...
I can't believe the median asking price in Phoenix is so high compared to places like Dallas and Chicago that have much higher paying jobs.
==================================
This is why you renters will never get ahead, you are simply ignorant of basic facts. Or can't do basic math. Or both.
Chicago's median household income is $38.6K, Dallas is $43.3K and $41.2K in Phoenix. I suppose in renterland $38.6 is MUCH HIGHER than $41.2K.
And hmm you think the fact that Phoenix has a shitload of retirees with low incomes but high net worth might skew the numbers just a wee bit?
Get a clue and then try again.
12:00 AM LOL. That's great dude. coat-whore, coat crash of 2007, I love it. You forgot to mention the CIC (Coat Industrial Complex).
Phoenix bottoms at $99,000.
devestment said...
Suddenly the dollar is looking sweet...
I'm dumping chattel for U$D.
The yellow metal goes too.
June 05, 2007 5:08 AM
=================================
HUH? I thought gold was supposed to hit $1000 as hyperinflation was coming.
Damn you tinfoilhatters change your mind quickly.
I am willing to change with the climate and admit that I was wrong in my over optimistic prediction. This tinfoiler will take profit and wait for the desperate chattel. I feel that the market forces of exploding inventory along with lost REIC jobs will slowly drive metals and chattel down from here. That is my play.
I love this blog. One day it's hyperinflation and buy gold. The next it's deflation, sell gold.
One day Hillary's the greatest thing since slice bread. The next day she's to be feared.
Liberalism is indeed a disease.
There is a phenomenal number of people, mostly trolltards that think the housing market should act like the stock market. The housing market is an illiquid asset and the stock market is a liquid asset. Nuff time spent educating the trolltards.
I'm selecting two zip codes from Phoenix, not random. One zip code I grew up in and the other a friend lives in. Average, middle income neighborhoods and thanks to whoever it was that posted that wonderful website, Melissa.com I give you this:
85020 where I lived for a couple of decades:
05-2007 66 $248,000.00
04-2007 65 $339,000.00
03-2007 49 $308,000.00
02-2007 37 $261,000.00
01-2007 44 $414,000.00
12-2006 59 $283,000.00
11-2006 50 $338,000.00
10-2006 77 $244,000.00
09-2006 63 $301,000.00
08-2006 55 $300,000.00
07-2006 61 $295,000.00
06-2006 64 $360,000.00
Check out Mays average sale price.
85029
05-2007 50 $198,000.00
04-2007 42 $219,000.00
03-2007 44 $231,000.00
02-2007 45 $218,000.00
01-2007 53 $226,000.00
12-2006 47 $204,000.00
11-2006 56 $209,000.00
10-2006 74 $219,000.00
09-2006 74 $213,000.00
08-2006 75 $217,000.00
07-2006 70 $230,000.00
06-2006 70 $226,000.00
05-2006 98 $222,000.00
Sure one month does not make a trend. Go www.melissadata.com and find out what is happening in YOUR neighborhood. Oh and trolltards, find the one neighborhood in America that is still appreciating and post it here as proof that there is no housing crash. Don't forget the anonymous name too.
We're not all renters here. Mortgages must be 2.5 times income or the mortgage will fail. Period. Therefore mortgages for any neighborhood must be 2.5 times income for that neighborhood. If you want more house, you have to put more down. There is no logical question to dispute this other than maybe 3 times income if you just love the ramen. Yes, I know some make big bucks and can afford a larger debt ratio, but let's keep the discussion to the real 97% of the people and not the select few.
I am one of those 5%CD people that are thought disparingly of. I've been doing it for years. I do not own a single stock and never have. I do not believe in 401ks because I plan on being in a higher income bracket at retirment so they do not work for me. I own two houses, side by side, free and clear. It costs me $3600 per month to own these homes free and clear because I don't have that money in the bank earning that 5%. I can afford the loss. Because of the 5% I've been doing for years, I have an ungodly crapload of cash in the bank. Make the arguement of deflation, make any arguement you want, it boils down to; I still have a crap load of cash in the bank, and your little flip friends have renters and a scheme.
Here's the key; I live a modest life. I drive a 4 year old car and a 3 year old car, both bought used at about 10k miles. I assume they were owned by someone who was working the pyramid and lost. They replaced our 11 year old car and 13 year old car. I live in one of the homes and the other is a guest home only. Other than that I lead an unremarkable life. Recently we did not buy foam noodles for the pool because we knew they were on sale for half at another store. Did we drive there to save the $6?, no we went there when there was greater purpose. Let the stock monkeys try to explain their losses, they choke. Let the RE monkeys try to expalin that they 'didn't know' that prices and sales are the way they are because FORECLOSURES AT FULL VALUE ARE COUNTED AS SALES [EVEN IN THAT GRAPH]. They'll squirm. I've seen so many thousands of their 1003's and if it weren't for the unbelievably inflated 401k values [you have to deduct about 40% because of the deferred tax load] and the false real estate values, I've found few [1 in 300] that weren't pyramid scheming themselves. Go ahead bag on my punctuation and spelling. It's the last resort of a coward with no retort to an argument.
As an aside, any of you been to St Louis? Have you seen that ghetto that is composed of many square miles of the very coolest giant old victorian homes? Tha'ts what the acres of mcMansions will become. Flops for the tired, morally unable, downtrodden and loving it, that live in that current ghetto. Just like the very poorest that can afford a car drive whoopty old cadillacs and other budget breakers, so shall this return for hummers and the ilk.
Some illusidation for the math challenged flippers who think they succeeding;
$500,000CD at 5%apr is a savings account progrm that makes $2500 per month, forever. You can own a $500k home free and clear for the LOSS of this $2500 per month, and add another $1000 per month in taxes and upkeep, or you can rent the same house for $1500, maximum, [$1100 in my area] and have beautifull liquidity. As interest rates go up it costs me even more to own these homes free and clear. Dispute this if you're feeling exceptionally stupid.
Even free and clear, renting puts you $2500+ ahead per month. I'm living the prior, take my word for it, the American Dream is quite costly right now. I don't care enough about exact numbers to make it fit, but I can tell you everytime I look at the guest house I twitch. It costs me $1600+ per month to own it free and clear. But, I love it and won't get rid of it. I could be on heroin cheaper!
05-2007 66 $248,000.00
04-2007 65 $339,000.00
03-2007 49 $308,000.00
02-2007 37 $261,000.00
01-2007 44 $414,000.00
12-2006 59 $283,000.00
11-2006 50 $338,000.00
10-2006 77 $244,000.00
09-2006 63 $301,000.00
08-2006 55 $300,000.00
07-2006 61 $295,000.00
06-2006 64 $360,000.00
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All this tell me is that the zip code is all over the place. You can't seriously think this data is at all meaningfull.
Unless you look at the number of sales which look very steady.
What the hell was your point again?
renting chumps, your $2500 a month is only worth $1250 after the government is doen stealing. $1000 a month in taxes on a $500K home is yet another fantasy of yours. $200 is more like it, which is only $100 given the government doesn't steal the other $100.
So even assuming your numbers are right the net is only $1350.
Oh and with that $500K home free and clear I live in it. You pay $1500 in rent, wiping out your $1350 and then some.
You renting idiots constantly amaze me with your new math. I fear for the future if this is what publik skools are teaching.
Learn some basic math skills and try again.
Anonymous said...
NEW Bubble about to BURST:
Major Retailers announced a huge drop off in winter coat sales. This CRASH is expected to continue well into November, 2007.
Coat-whores are forecasting the declines to bottom out by September. Hah! who are they kidding? They're just in it to make a fast buck!!
I hate coat-whores so I never bought a coat. (Ok, I used to own a coat, but sold it back in 1999 cause coat prices were so high that I knew they would come down and I can buy two coats later). Now I rent my coat from some selfish coat owner and save so much money by paying less money to him that I can eat at BK twice a month! Hah!
Anyway, time for us to fight back against those evil money hungry, people hating, children eating coat-whores by flooding yahoo messanger boards with our "inside knowledge" of the Huge Coat Crash of 2007. Remember this folks, you will be telling your children about the huge coat crash of 2007!
Gotta go now. It's a bit cold in here.
June 05, 2007 12:00 AM
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OMG how pathetic, get a life realtwhore REIC trolls. Oh that's right you have no income now and only have time to try in vain to goad people into destroying their finances just so you can make a commission to keep up with your lexus payments!! FYI/NEWSFLASH, YOU'RE A LOOOOOSSSSERRRR!!! Go start doing something productive for society by flipping some burgers!!
By Anonymous, at June 05, 2007 10:43 AM
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LOL
Aw come-on, ya gotta find that funny. Unless you are renting and can't afford BK. Sorry man.
Anyway, I am a Realtor. Since I am successful I guess you would call me a REIC troll. I'm making more income this year than I did the last two years. I own a 7 year old car free and clear. I have 72% equity in my house, I should have it paid off in the next few years, then I'll be paying rent to myself.
I have a 98% client satisfaction rate, no client of mine has ever lost money on the sale of the house I helped them buy. I have lots of client testimonial letters thanking me for helping them through their transaction. Senior citizens needing to move out of a home they have loved and lived in for 40 years. Divorced mom's with handicapped kids who told me that they could not have sold their home without my help. First time home buyers hugging me for helping them into their first home that they never thought they could find (not at a teaser rate arm btw). Those are the clients that make me feel good about what I do.
I believe that every profession has good and bad. Even 10% of cops are probably bad. I've worked with bad realtors before, we probably got more than our 10% when the "rush" to buy real estate was on. I look forward to those people being out of the business in the next couple of years because they give it a bad light.
So, sorry to you realtor hating folks out there. Good realtors have got plenty of happy, satisfied, and thankful clients to make us happy with what we do.
The bad realtors - make them walk the plank !
Where will Phoenix stop?
My sense is that everything is about 30-40% overvalued in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Southern California (call it the Greater SoCal market, since so much of the money in Nevada and Arizona is actually California money).
I wouldn't call a bottom (meaning not the point of lowest price and greatest opportunity, but the point where buying makes sense again) until prices are down at least another 20%.
The first wave of Alt-A and prime ARMs are just starting to re-set. Look for prices to move 6 months from now as the first wave of foreclosures hits the market.
Anonymous said...
In reality, have renters ever won?
_____
Define "won".
To anonymous 5:37 PM
To anyone of average intelligence or better, they would have FIRST taken the time to read my whole post. Then they would know the point.
anon 5;43;
can you even begin to read and retain long enough to type a retort? We're talking gross not net as net is based on too many variables but the gross is always the same, and if you think a grand a month is enough to cover insurance taxes, sewer [sewer is $71 monthly in my town], upkeep, paint, water, a/c, you're just plain ass goofy.
You use net as an arguement on one side and gross on the other as it's the only way it can even sound as foolish as it does.
Tell us how you're doing fool, I dare you. I double dog dare you to prove that owning a home free and clear is cheaper than renting if the interest rates are at 5%. So the best you can come up with is that if I rent and keep the money in the bank that I'll net Zero? Beats the hell out of the 6%loss I'll take on just paying the realtor....
So let's say you live there with no maintanence at all, no sewer, no water, I'm sure it's a lovely home because of it. Tell me again how it would be bad to pay rent from your eternal $2500 per month and still have 500k in the bank. Nice try goof. We're ALL laughing at you. Now please, to make the picture we have of you complete, can you please address my grammar ans spelling? It's the last vestige [look it up] of a coward with no arguement. I hate people who spout. Live it, learn it, or shut up. And yes, it's ok to hate as long as it's well directed. I am not saying this to be combative, rude, disparaging, just want you to work it out and then check back in with us. I'll respect whatever you come up with if it concludes in fact. I can present the facts as I'm living it.
As a resident of Phoenix, I can tell you that there isn't 1 house that costs less than 1m that is worth living in out here. Not one I'd want to live in.
The 'nice' 5-600k new construction is packed tighter than sardines and the 3-400l 'not so good' areas are like ghettos.
I rent a 1m+ values 4 bedroom with a pool and large lot for 2.5k per month. (not a 1 bedroom)
To buy this house on a 30yr fixed would cost me 200k + 800k @6-7% - so i lose 1k a month in interest on the return id get off the down payment, 1 k a month in taxes + yard and pool & maintenance costs 500 a month + insurance 500 a month + 4.5k a month on the loan. Total cost to 'own' around 7500pcm.
So... I am up 5k a month if the market stays level and that will increase as the market goes down.
i.e. If it goes down by another 10% in the next year thats another 100k lost. So I'd be down a total of around 13k a month for the year.
I am not saying it always bad to buy a house, but that its a safer bet to rent at the moment as the trend is down so renting minimises your risk vs. buyng now.
Anonymous said...
I love this blog. One day it's hyperinflation and buy gold. The next it's deflation, sell gold.
One day Hillary's the greatest thing since slice bread. The next day she's to be feared.
Liberalism is indeed a disease.
Is market fluctuation and taking profit liberal?
Thanks.
Can we have another real life example from someone? Counting mine, that's two true stories so far. Please, no pyramid schemes, no 'on paper' schemes, let's just keep it to what really happened. Even flip stories. If you TRULY flipped and won, and then reinvest until you lost it all, tell us. If you flipped until you're losing, tell us. No one knows you. It was nice to be able to think through my situation, maybe you'll find it pleasant also. [I wish I hadn't thought so hard, it's disappointing to find what I found] Maybe a mortgage holder will be truthfull and give us the details of why they think paying $1500 more than you can rent the same place for makes sense. It will in a lot of cases, we'd just like to see those cases. Things will swing to the other side of the fence when prices adjust and homeownership will again make more sense. We're interested in what's now and previous, not speculation.
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