June 17, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

How screwed is your town:

1) Even firesales aren't moving the dead wood - all sellers, no buyers

2) Drama pricing, foreclosures, panic

3) Slight discounting, worry

4) Flat at best - but it's always a great time to buy or sell a home!

5) Bubble? What housing bubble? We're A-OK! Party on! The fundamentals don't matter!


Anonymous said...

Actually Buffalo is doing okay. I just listed my house, its a double. The asking price is reasonable considering the rents on the street. There is nothing else available in the very choice neighborhood, the grade school around the corner gets good marks and I should have multiple offers.

I am happy.

UrbanMan said...

The real deal in South Florida..The flippers are Screwed..There are so many condos on the market that many are asking below what they paid for in 2004-05 when they stood in line and camped out to buy a condo...(LOL) not to mention the losses from closing costs and or realtors fees.Its amazing to see that in a few of the newer buildings that have just closed in the past year that some are willing to take a total loss. Other flippers still must be sipping the dark stuff as they are priced way high..Nothing seems to be moving the market..

Most single family homes are still priced outrageous.Sellers are holding on to the real estate prices(dreams) they had in 2005...However, Fear is moving into the market quickly....

Inventories are busting at the seems..A realtor friend said that in one area she works in there is a ten year suppy of condos at this sales pace..

Florida is headed for a Real Estate Crash and it aint gonna be pretty for banks.

Anonymous said...

Metro DC appears to be #3 for now, but I think its just due to denial.


Anonymous said...

Northern VA is off 10% from the peak and has stabilised. W has made lots of your tax $s available to support the DC area bubble.

WC said...

Between slight discount and flat at best. No one seems to be panicking around here. There are still too many people making so much money - it is hard to believe so many people can afford $600K+ homes. But the income gap is growing wider and wider - there are a lot of people with stagnating wages facing ever increasing gasoline and health care/insurance costs. There is no room for a middle class here anymore. When just the have and the have nots remain - I think there will be a return to crime like we haven't seen since the 80s. Despair in society at large can have pretty severe consequences - and ultimately that will be the great equalizer. Westchester County, NY.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

41 year supply of new condos over the $500,000.oo range, under $250,000.oo still selling, but slow.
They are still building high rise luxury condos downtown Orlando, FL.
Some people are still getting into the REIC business, with no compunction.

W.C. Varones said...

5. San Francisco. The burbs are starting to slow but the city is bubbling on.

Guy Daley said...

Rawlins, WY - Freakish exception to the rule but that's due to the energy boom. Unlike the vast majority on this board, few make six figures here so homes that sell for $400K do not sell even though they are few in number. Homes in the $100-$200K range sell like hotcakes. Funny thing is, 3-5 years ago, homes were selling for $40K here. This is one of the armpits of America, infested with illegals but all making VERY good money working in the oil industry (the slave wages wasted minds keep talking about). Since home prices have gone up, there are for sale signs everywhere. People want to cash out and get out of this pit while the demand is here. Same here and I'm confident of selling easily WITHOUT a realtor.

Conversely there is scads of empty commercial property everywhere. A very strange dichotomy in this mini energy epicenter.

P.S. Keith, non-residential property is never mentioned on your blog although it deserves some attention. Over the course of time landlords have jacked up there rents and as business slows tenants are stuck paying titanic leases on there space in strip centers. In Craigslist there are tons of these businesses for sale. Every bit as bad as homedebtors except they work just to pay there lease payment with aftertax dollars not to mention skyrocketing utility payments, etc, etc. They can't sell and they can't walk away because landlord will pursue them for balance of lease. Thousands of small business people in that situation across the country.

Anonymous said...

In Colorado Springs I would say it is starting to become obvious. The for sale sign is about to be nominated as the new State tree. You can't go into hardly any neighborhood without being able to see one at all times or withen a few seconds of seeing the last one. Sales are down 13%yoy so far this year and were down 14% in March, 15% in April, and 18% in May. With the increase in rates as of late I can only imagine June.

When I was looking for a RENTAL last month I could tell there was a lot of fear out there. I imagine its only gonna get worse I rented a 600000 house for 1900 a month. So most of the rentals I looked at were 400000 and above. The owner of the last one I looked at before taking the one I live in told me there is a 2 year supply of over 400000 homes here!!!

As far as prices I have seen many price improvements but usually only 5-10%. Catch a clue sheeple if your house has been on the market for over 6 months 10% ain't gonna getter done. The ones that do 20% off ain't doing much better. Me thinks Fall may take on a whole new meaning next year.


Anonymous said...

for years in my state of california the prices were always ridiculous. the reason i bought an older home because they were cheaper and as long as you know the neighborhood you knew where to move and not to move. the people who live in my neighborhood have been in one owner homes for years and have no plans to go. none of the houses go up for sale unless someone dies. but the newer subdivision just around the corner they go quite frequently. but for the most part the people pretty much stay here although there is a high number of foreclosures within the area. the newer homes. years ago i sorta blamed the new housing subdivision craze on the filipino's they do not believe in living in a used home. real showy people. whole subdivisions were completely controlled by filipino's every 10th house was some other race. they would live together and then one family would move out and then the next family would move out so on and so forth. and to this day i believe alot of what is going on in my town excessive building and a town that is showing it's age by older to new subdivisions everywhere was caused by a glut of filipino's. not racist per se because this was before subic bay was shut down, now filipino's can not come to the states as freely as they did before. now no one will buy their homes because they won't buy yours if it's not new and fancy and i won't buy theirs' because their fake wealth prompted builders to think they could build endlessly and the supply of filipino's would follow. now it's hispanics. trust me i love my house and neighborhood and don't plan to go. 2500 sq, enormous lot huge bedrooms i have never seen what i have in a standard track home (new ones.)but my town is being decimated by the foreclosures #1 in the county. so sad but i blame it on the people who would plunk down any amount of money no questions asked with being so gullible that they could believe that this ballon was going to keep rising. even the stratophere has it's limit before that ballon burns up and crashes down to earth
it appears that homes in foreclosure are those fancy houses i told you about and quiet as it is kept they are losing those whole subdivisions.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

"There is no room for a middle class here any longer"

This is a sign of worst things to come.

WC said...
Between slight discount and flat at best. No one seems to be panicking around here. There are still too many people making so much money - it is hard to believe so many people can afford $600K+ homes. But the income gap is growing wider and wider - there are a lot of people with stagnating wages facing ever increasing gasoline and health care/insurance costs. There is no room for a middle class here anymore. When just the have and the have nots remain - I think there will be a return to crime like we haven't seen since the 80s. Despair in society at large can have pretty severe consequences - and ultimately that will be the great equalizer. Westchester County, NY.

Beltway Bandit said...

Sellers are still stubborn in DC area/Northern VA. Townhouses are still listed in the $400,000 dollar range which is around $3,000 for a 30 year fixed mortgage. Still way overpriced. Single family homes still in the $500,000-$600,000 range--ridiculous as people would be paying $5,000 on a 30 year mortgage per month. Inventory is not moving though so by fall/winter they'll hopefully start discouting.

Anonymous said...

They're still building in my neck of the woods (financing was arranged awhile ago...) but the market is stagnant and trending down in price. Foreclosures rising.

youngexec2b said...

Ottawa is between 5 and 4 right now. But the Canadian MSM is forecasting a "soft landing" to our housing market (we've heard that one before). Personally, I'm wondering what will happen when the Americans stop building completely when the recession is at its worst, and stop buying our lumber, copper, nickel, oil, gas, car parts, cars, pulp products, etc.

Or if our dollar is at par or higher in value than the American dollar, and companies move to the States to cut costs.

I don't think our housing market will be hit as hard, but there will definitely be an impact, especially in cities propped up by exports.

In addition, inflation is a huge problem, since we're basically at par with the American dollar (93 cents or so), but we still pay on average about 20% more for a basket of goods and services. So interest rates will certainly rise.

We're not seeing as many option ARMs in Canada, but last week I read in the paper "a 35-year mortgage term is the new 25-year term". And "looking at new products to attract first-time home buyers".

I say that in five years, we are we're you're at now.

GreenBayite said...

Seems like there are more homes for sale in the Green Bay area. Have not heard of any fire sales. But buyers can be very, very picky. No one seems to be in any rush to buy.

Two years back several large builders collapsed. Some homes are sitting empty.

They are still building more strip malls. No idea why. There is a lot of empty retail space. Some of it has never had a tennant.

stuckinthecity said...

5) Bubble? What housing bubble? We're A-OK! Party on! The fundamentals don't matter!

Chicago all the way.

Shakster said...

Must be pretty phukt.Yesterday I saw a sign spinner on the corner of 35th and Rosamond Blvd giving advice to one of the suit-n-ties of Havnonian.

Anonymous said...

I notice a definate lackluster in the used chattel trade here in Los Angeles the past few weeks.

edd said...

My bit of heresy ....
I have no reason to doubt the basic
truth of the facts and policies
expressed my Mr. K, despite the
theatrics and admitted attitudes.

But I am looking to buy the right
deal at the right time. Renting
is subjugation to landlords.
And I have had two landlords who
became evil incarnate, and who have
suffered legal consequences in my
pyrrhic victories.

Some local courts are "landlord"
courts, and you won't win unless
you have an independent lawyer and a court reporter.

Anonymous said...

There was an article yesterday in the Dallas Morning News about a 1,000 home subdivision where nearly 10% of the houses went into foreclosure in the first six months of this year. There are also several burned down and half-built houses just sitting there.

Anonymous said...

Well no firesales are moving inventory. Remember the 16% jump in sales? No of course you don't.

Anonymous said...

The bubble is alive and well in Bethesda and downtown DC (for SFHs, not for condos). My wife and I, against our better judgment, have been looking to buy something since we're getting tired of renting (the non-cash cost of which is having to live with someone else design sensibilities) but every house we wanted has had 5 or 6 bids and gone for $100K+ over asking!

Anonymous said...

Scottsdale, AZ

No one is buying. The market has 2+ years of inventory and the builders are still building. Seems like everyone I know has a second (investment) home they are trying to sell. Prices are dropping $100K and still no one is interested. Right now you couldn't give a house away here. The recession is coming. A lot of empty business space. The demand hasn't kept up with the supply. Some people still have their head in the sand and are in denial. Some people would like to trade up, but can't sell the house they are in, so are stuck. There are several foreclosure in our neighborhood. Seems like a ghost town. People in rental homes not maintaining their yards, using newspaper/tin foil for window coverings. And this in on homes that sold for $800K+. Very sad. It is going to get alot worse before it gets better.

Small Hat

Anonymous said...

South Florida is the midst of the feel fall as we speak.We are off the cliff.That much is obvious.How far we fall is the question but it will be far from here.Todays real estate section was filled with ad after ad of reduced,drastically reduced,pre-foreclosure,etc.A shocking amount to be honest.People are either stepping aside or not getting approved or both.I saw some attractive deals but to rent is still much cheaper.But this fall was predictable after witnessing the stock crash of 2000.Speculators once again and this will happen again and again.Its human nature.Understand and prosper.

Anonymous said...

Fresno, CA is about a 2 or 3. Unlike the rest of california where the residents make money and the weather is nice, Fresno is a total armpit and the median income is something like $32k...but that didn't stop our home prices from tripling in three years!!! "Remember, all you got to do is get into the house then you got it made." Lots of people are learning what "Adjustable Rate" means. List prices are staying high, people refuse to believe they could actually lose money on their "investments". rollin through zillow i see the actual sales pries are few, and at okay prices. The builders are slashing and burning prices, but also offering the "every single possible upgrade including a pool" pricing, so who knows what that has done to the price calculation...people were buying total strippo houses for more.

Anonymous said...

"Remember the 16% jump in sales?"

Ever heard of the phrase: "Calling a falling knife "

Try pulling your head out of your ass, and THINK beyond the end of your nose for once in your life...

Anonymous said...

Beaverton, OR 3

Anonymous said...

Wise men say, only fools rush in...
But I can't help, buying a house or two

Anonymous said...

Mid Hudson Valley NY.
Market totally dead, no buyers.
tons of for-sale signs.
Prices still at 05 levels.

waiting to see how long builders and FBers can hold out before lowering the price or begin selling a loss.

90% of locals cannot afford a home here, inventory wont move unless we get a 50% price drop

vegas crash watcher said...

The DC area is like ancient Rome; it's a parasite sucking in resources from the rest of the empire.
Where are the Goths when we need them most?
Hopefully these DC area buyers will be ruined shortly; I won't hold my breath.

Anonymous said...

I always read how home owners say,"well you are just a renter and you missed out",to renters on this blog.It is very funny to me because they dont realize that if you were a homeowner and sold the interest off your equity is paying your rent.I am in this situation and I have always owned until now and I keep thinking I may never buy again.I most likely will,(at a steal only) but I am in a very comfortable position as are many others on here.I dont know anybody in my personal life who DOESNT think renting is smart right now.

Girl Guide said...

Renters live high in falling condo market
By Dick Hogan
Taken from Article in the Ft Myers News Press June 17, 2007

Lee County’s burgeoning skyscraper condominium market is a renter’s paradise — but a landlord’s hell.

Experts say as increasing numbers of condo units pour into an already overflowing supply of residential real estate, renters can almost name their price for even the costliest luxury units.

Jim Simon, for example, recently moved into a condo in the 32-story High Point Place in downtown Fort Myers, where the owners of its 105 units typically paid as much as $600,000 for the convenient riverfront location.

But Simon, a commercial real estate broker, is paying only $1,350 a month: barely enough to cover the taxes and condo association fees.

“It’s like living in the Ritz-Carlton,” Simon said. “It’s got great amenities, it’s clean, it’s safe, it’s got a beautiful view.”

With only about 20 people living there, he’s practically got the place to himself and with a number of similar projects under construction around downtown he expects the good times for renters to last for awhile. “It wouldn’t surprise me to see people get in for a little less than I’m paying.”

The median condo resale price maxed out in February 2006 at $353,900 but by April 2007 the price had fallen to $244,100, down 31 percent, according to Florida Association of Realtors statistics.

As prices have fallen, so have rents. In late 2006 the average rent for a two-bedroom house was $940, down from an all-time high of $1,041 a year earlier, according to rental information service RealFacts.

Rents have continued to fall in recent months as well while inventory of dwellings for sale stays at an all-time high of about 15,000, experts say.

Non-beachfront condos have been coming on line at an accelerating rate as well in a trend fueled by speculators who bought pre-construction hoping to sell them quickly for a profit.

As a result, 829 new condos units in that category have been completed in the past 2 1/2 years with another 1,769 under construction.

Owners are feeling the pinch on prices as renters have more to choose from.

A lot of people who bought condos as investments want to rent them out now because the market’s slow, said Joe Crimaldi of Rent SWFL in Fort Myers, who handles RENTALS leasing for condo owners throughout the area.

But not all skyscrapers are created equal, Crimaldi said.

For example, he handles leases in Riva Del Lago next to Lakes Park and Mastique on Bunche Beach Road, both in south Fort Myers, which he said are relatively easy to rent out. Riva Del Lago, which had three-bedroom units selling for more than $650,000, now has rentals around $1,500 a month. A three-bedroom condo in Mastique that sold for about $750,000 can be had for $1,750 a month.....

...Simon said it will be a long time before the owners make back their money, while those who borrowed heavily to buy are in trouble.

Anonymous said...

Small university town in the NW--prices remain steady as do buyers. Most houses don't last more than a month on the market (though you have to have them on the market in Mar-August).

Very few of our buyers (according to local mortgage folks I know) tend to be ARMs, and even fewer are no-doc or alt-a folks. It's a weird--at least in terms of the national housing market--little place.

What I'm hoping is that rising interest rates and media concern over housing limits new construction. Sort of a pre-emptive strike against bubble conditions occuring here.

Natural Eyebrows said...

Saw article in NY Times a few days ago about rise in T-bill rates affecting ARM's as they re-set. Emailed it to a broker friend of mine. She emailed me back: looking for a house under $200K in central Tucson. MLS search gave her 200 listings in this category. Said last year there would have been none.


burn baby burn said...

I am not sure what you would call this http://www.tiny.cc/nV0sS. /I just ran across this listing on zip here is the description.

3 WARREN LODGE CT #C, Cockeysville, MD 21030**
Nice condo in great area at great price...Some recent updates, fireplace, cozy lower level 3 bdrm! Seller wants to sell it! Check out value pricing: price will drop every 10 days: 5/20-$189,900; 5/30-$187,700; 6/9-$185,500; 6/19-$183,300; 6/29-$181,100; 7/9-$181,100; 7/19-$178,900; 7/29-$176,700; 8/7-$174,500; 8/17-$172,300...Don't miss this great buy...Someone else will beat you to it!

Anonymous said...

Hillsboro, OR -- somewhere between 4 and 5.

Centex is still building subdivisions out here and cowboy contractors are buying adjacent lots and putting 10 townhomes on same. That's 10 homes sited on less than 1 acre. Pure shitboxes. Do you think the Hillsboro planning commission gives a damn? Hell no. All they want is the property tax income.

In the Portland metro area, no one worries much about housing (yet).

Anonymous said...

Rochester NY, Stable - no price movement up or down, sales are happening, no jobs though. Prices are reasonable, good supply to choose from.

Quentin Daniels said...

I don't know what's wrong with my town, but prices are not falling and when a house goes up for sale in my neighborhood, its only a few days before the sold sticker is slapped over the for sale sign. I live in north Fulton County Georgia. Why aren't prices going down here? Why aren't houses staying on the market long? How come there is a shortage of rental homes? A friend looked recently for a rental because he was afraid of buying in this market (I made him read HP) but he couldn't find anything to rent. He ended up buying a condo (and his house - he was downsizing - sold in 4 days for $50,000 more than he'd paid a year earlier). Why is my area not participating in the housing bust??

JerseyGirl said...

Here in Northern NJ I've been looking for a house for about 2 years now and the prices have not come down much if at all. Same fixer-uppers with no land and where taxes (on average) around $7,000/yr, going for around 400k. I'm not entirely convinced this crash will affect my area much although I wish it would. A much needed correction is needed in these perceived housing prices.

Anonymous said...

Report from Santa Fe, NM

Prices are down maybe 5-10% from last year. I actually saw some discounted prices on ads for apartment conversion condos this past weekend (only about 5%, though). Inventory is high, but things are moving. I know several people who have sold their home in the past few months (I must ad that the homes that have sold are higher end and have some very nice features).

I also saw an ad for a lease/purchase option on 4 acres of land with a fruit tree grove and a 2000 square foot home. You could either rent it for $1300/month or you could buy it for $425,000. Hmm, which would you do?

There's definitely more room to drop.


Tri-Stater said...

Cincinnati - somewhere between 3 and 4. Inventories are up, prices haven't moved much. While nobody would be eager to put their home on the market right now, we never had the huge ramp-up in prices to begin with. But worry? Oh yes.

Foreclosures were a problem in Ohio before they hit the news. We're at the leading edge, and there's a probability of real blight and stiff price competition as that runs its course. Hitting some neighborhoods harder than other. Those are your 3's.

For those of us who paid attention to the fundamentals and never saw the whole thing as get-rich-quick, there isn't much to worry about. So those are your 4's.

westwest888 said...

I haven't seen "asking prices" move in Northern Virginia - Washington DC. But I also follow the Washington Post Recent Sales database (http://tinyurl.com/6dlq5) and I only see two sales recorded for 2007 in my zip code (of tens of thousands of people). So I'd say things are at a standstill, waiting to go over the edge. People are getting nervous about their jobs on the heels of the 2008 elections. And no one under the age of 30 has home equity (or enough of it) to buy anything resembling a respectable home with a traditional mortgage product. The only people buying are those duped by the homebuilders (locked in with a contract) 40 miles out from the city.

Anonymous said...

good to see ya, again W.C missed ya, guess you been busy and could not write probably due to the tax and spenders trying to loot the lands of the peasants, by making you the peasants..,sad comentary for the former lands of the Rockerfellers, Roosevelts, Astors, Vanderbilts,...ect

Anonymous said...

Re: westwest888 said...

Actually 27.5 miles out. If getting duped means good schools, good location, not having to lock your doors at night, and about as much as a townhouse in Fairfax for over 3K sq ft along with all closing and points paid by seller, at a 13% discount, then sure, we got duped. :P Last I checked, rents were rising...alot...fast...around here, since we used to rent. Granted, we're also @ about 3x income for our house, instead of 5-10x like alot of people, with a fixed rate product/etc. It's all about the research/timing - got my wife a car that gets 36mpg highway for $200 under invoice this weekend, even though they're flying off the lots faster than they can get them in. L2Play, kthxbuhbye. :) (World of Warcraft ownz j00!)

Anonymous said...

Anyone know what the conditions are like in Little Rock, AR?

Lizzie said...

I'm from the suburbs of Rochester, NY (Fairport) and I've been really puzzled as I've heard so many reports that everything is stable and "there's no bubble here," yet all I see are For Sale signs (Hurry! Price Reduced!). So I graphed the sales data for Fairport and Pittsford (NY) to see for myself (nothing fancy). The number of houses sold appeared to decrease about 10% from 2005 to 2006 (11% in Pittsford and 12% in Fairport).

When comparing the partial data from this year the number of houses sold is up a little (comparing January to June sales). However, I don't know how useful it is to compare this data due to other variables (like early spring snow storms, etc...).

One interesting thing is that, although the number of houses sold decreased between 2005 and 2006, the average price did not - they remained flat.