June 15, 2007

Ah, ya gotta love a classic Florida property crash. 20% of all new US foreclosures last month in Florida, and it's just gonna get worse

Don't get too cocky Florida. I think Colorado, California, Arizona and Nevada will be putting on their Foreclosure Rally Hats and giving you a run for the money. Oops, I mean a run for the banks.

Can't we just fast-forward a couple of years? I think we all know how this one ends. We've seen it all before.

Mortgage breakdown in Florida - Housing news can't get any worse, right? Wrong. In May, Florida homes were 3 times as likely to enter foreclosure as those in other states.

One in five U.S. homes entering the foreclosure process last month were located in Florida. It's not the sort of ranking that makes you want to shout, "We're No. 1!"


But according to data assembled by Bargain.com, a Goleta, Calif., company that seeks to profit from homeowners' grief by selling lists of foreclosed homes that are for sale, it's the truth: Florida leads the nation in housing distress.

Is it something we said? Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp., cites two key reasons why the state stands out today:

- An abundance of properties owned by speculators.
- The relative ease and speed with which mortgage lenders can obtain a court-ordered foreclosure here.

The onetime Jacksonville resident says he was surprised to learn, after the fact, just how much speculation took place in Florida during the recent boom.

Many buyers told their lenders they planned to live in the homes they were buying.


"The truth is, people lie, " Vitner says.

29 comments:

Frank@NeverColdCall.com said...

Scottsdale will catch up to them VERY soon.

Anonymous said...

Isn't "got some land to sell you in Florida" a long standing joke in America?

Anonymous said...

Who can be surprised that there were so many speculators in Florida? Everybody and his dog (who live here) could plainly see what was going on....and the developers knew better too....but the greed kept feeding the machine. When I knew the post office guy was mortgaging his house to buy a pre-construction flipper, I knew the end was near. It was going to end badly and has yet to reach the "bottom". There were no greater fools left....the music stopped playing and there are many people standing around left paying 2 or 3 mortgages.

Anonymous said...

I've been wanting to move to Flordia for some time. Looks like in a year or two I'll be able to buy with cash.

borkafatty said...

At this stage of the game the only thing that could work in Florida's favor would be a Category 5 Hurricane that would eliminate all that over supply.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Mortgage rates leap on Treasury weakness
Biggest weekly jump in three years; 30-year hits 6.74%

As I mentioned yesterday in one of my posts. From Marketwatch this morning. I'm pretty sure it's gonna leave a mark.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

U.S. Consumer Prices Rose 0.7% in May; Core Rate Up 0.1%

This is great news. If I can just figure out how to not eat or use fuel/energy, I should be sitting pretty. Completely delusional, but the sheeple eat it up.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Keith, we need another thread now that Jorge' has been to the Hill to revive the Amnesty. He should be Impeached for dereliction of his duties! The new closure vote to take place right before the 4th of July break so that the traitors can vote and skip town. Best congress money can buy!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

New video Today! Subprimes, Foreclosures, the Fed and an Economist

http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=228

A series of segments discussing topics from the subprime meltdown on Bear Stearns latest results, the Mortgage Bankers Association record quarterly results for foreclosures and new proposals for the Federal Reserve action against subprime and predatory lending. Includes an interview with PNC Financial Services Group Economist Stuart Hoffman who sees housing as a drag on the economy for the rest of 2007 and into 2008.

Originally aired on: 6/14/2007 on Nightly Business Report

Running Time: 9 minutes 9 seconds

Anonymous said...

Townhomes a steal in Fort Myers
You're not going to believe what some brand new townhomes went for on the auction block Thursday night in Fort Myers, considering where prices have been.

http://www.winknews.com/news/local/7896352.html?video=YHI&t=a
=================

>Video: LUXURY Home Foreclosures ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ !!!

New Today! Luxury Foreclosures

http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=222

Sad CNBC segment chronicles a poor bastard in Maryland who got caught up in the mania in 2005. He bought a waterfront property in the hopes of subdividing it, creating a luxury “dream” home for himself and another to sell for profit. Unfortunately, he is stuck with a luxury vacation home no one wants and his unfinished dream home and ready for auction.

Originally aired on: 6/13/2007 on CNBC

Running Time: 2 minutes 30 seconds

Anonymous said...

Now watch the ads for Florida tourism to be vast and numerous this winter. They're going to raise hotel, motel and car rental taxes to try to cover their budget shortfalls. Word will get out and tourism will really slow = time to short Disney.

Stuck in So Pa said...

"The truth is, people lie, " Vitner says.

OMG. You are kidding,Right?
Say it isn't so!

buzz saw said...

California is the root of all evil. Many of those locusts heloced their houses to buy elsewhere on credit after they drove up prices there. When they lose "home base" that will be "sweet revenge".

David said...

Watch for a huge spike in foreclosures this fall and winter on a nationwide basis as the ARMS reset and the economy heads south.

Anonymous said...

Swampland in Florida is the joke. Of course most of Florida is swampland

Julie said...

I'm not seeing that collapse in the bay area of California. Many 'sold' signs on houses going for $700k and up. Why is that? The Realtor's spin -- "its a desireable area" -- maybe so, but its unaffordable. So who is buying these houses? "Not much land" doesn't really apply, not like Manhattan, it is 50 miles from San Jose to San Francisco, after all. Someone enlighten me please.

Anonymous said...

> Isn't "got some land to sell you in Florida" a long standing joke in America?

I think it goes like this: If you believe that, I've got some swampland in Florida to sell to you.

Louisville Real Estate said...

What a shame. Only a couple years ago Florida was experience extreme success in real estate and now the picture pretty much says it all. Lets hope it isn't too much longer before things get back on track.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Yep, Swamp land.
People bought it too. Now, the Fla Government is buying it from the FB to 'preserve' it.
Seven million dollars worth.
Headlines in today's Orlando paper.
I laughed out loud. Dumb Yankees.
Good thing the FL Government places value on the property.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

happy2rent said...

Don't forget Utah and Idaho...

yuccatree3 said...

At this stage of the game the only thing that could work in Florida's favor would be a Category 5 Hurricane that would eliminate all that over supply.
____________________

Be careful what you wish for....

Anonymous said...

"So who is buying these houses? "Not much land" doesn't really apply, not like Manhattan, it is 50 miles from San Jose to San Francisco, after all. Someone enlighten me please. "

People are buying houses because people have money. Despite what you read on blogs like these, jobs are plentiful and there is a tremendous amount of wealth out there. Only ones complainig are society's losers, many of whom spend their days blogging.

borkafatty said...

People are buying houses because people have money. Despite what you read on blogs like these, jobs are plentiful and there is a tremendous amount of wealth out there. Only ones complainig are society's losers, many of whom spend their days blogging.

-----------

And your doing what Mr.Wealth / Working Guy / shit for brains? Welcome to the Losers club..Fun Taint it, Pull up a chair at the bar and hey this is my friend Troll I mean Realtor...I mean...what was your name again.

Anonymous said...

Julie said...
I'm not seeing that collapse in the bay area of California. Many 'sold' signs on houses going for $700k and up. Why is that? The Realtor's spin -- "its a desireable area" -- maybe so, but its unaffordable. So who is buying these houses? "Not much land" doesn't really apply, not like Manhattan, it is 50 miles from San Jose to San Francisco, after all. Someone enlighten me please.

June 15, 2007 4:22 PM

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

I lived in the Bay Area for 14 years. It has some unique real estate dynamics that make it probably the most resistant to downturns:

1) Extremely strong immigrant influx.
People from Hong Kong or England think 800k for a 1920s Sears craftsman kit house in Berkeley is normal. Weird huh?

2) Extremely strong, religous like culture base for the region.
It's almost like a cult. People in the Bay Area think it's the only livable area on the planet. You know, the Ubber Liberal crowd like paying unthinkable amounts for a little piece of the commune.

3) Diverse base of Financial, High Tech, Bio Medical, Tourist Industries.
True, High Tech swings wildly in its cycles but theres always a some other sector taking up the slack, keeping real estate relatively strong.

4) Half of America moves there at some point.
Like me, I did my stint in Silicon Valley for 14 years, made a tiddy little bit of money and moved back to New England. Lots of transients in the Bay Area. Not many really stay. Career people from 24 - 40 work their tails off. Then leave for the next batch of workaholics.


Of course prices are insane. And if you're waiting for a correction in the Bay Area, you could be waiting a long, long time. Do what most do. 75% rent a modest place, live in Pacific Heights or Cow Hollow, rake in the bucks and cash out your stock options and leave and buy a great home for cash. I did.

BTW... New England is better than the Bay Area. Bay Area = the land of the most smug and self absorbed people you will ever find.

Matthew said...

At this stage of the game the only thing that could work in Florida's favor would be a Category 5 Hurricane that would eliminate all that over supply.

Actually, the hurricane would destroy only a fraction of the dead inventory.

But it would tweak up the risk models of the insurers so high that ALL of Florida would be financially uninhabitable.

ditch digger said...

I have a different evaluation

People are buying houses because people have credit.

there is a tremendous amount of debt out there.

Big difference.

Anonymous said...

Keith...


When are you going to start looking at the vacation home markets?

2 GREAT ones that are now flopping are Sandpoint, Idaho (Lake Pend Oreille) and Mammoth Lakes Ca.

kitchenstove said...

Julie said...
I'm not seeing that collapse in the bay area of California. Many 'sold' signs on houses going for $700k and up. Why is that? The Realtor's spin -- "its a desireable area" -- maybe so, but its unaffordable. So who is buying these houses? "Not much land" doesn't really apply, not like Manhattan, it is 50 miles from San Jose to San Francisco, after all. Someone enlighten me please.

--------

Seeing sold signs isn't an indication of anything these days. Houses are not moving much where I live, but I see sold signs all the time.

There are two types of empty houses in my neighborhood: those that just sit abandoned, and those that sit but are actually on the market. As far as those houses on the market are concerned, every so often, a sold sign will magically appear in front of one of them. Then months pass and no one ever moves into the house, the grass gets wild, and cats start walking in and out of the place. Then the process begins all over again when someone is paid to finally come cut the grass and some phantom no one ever sees puts up a new sold sign.

Of course there could be benign reasons for all this odd activity. Maybe the houses did sell, but each and every time the Buyer didn't qualify for the loan. Maybe the houses sold and the owners are just waiting months to move into them or rent them out. Maybe they were bought by investors who all managed to successfully flip them every few months this past year despite there being a Bust. Naturally, I don't see anything benign here. Since most of these homes are empty because of foreclosure, I tend to think the banks put these signs up to keep people out of the property. I also believe that in some cases, desperate Re@ltors are putting these signs up to drum up business and give the appearance of a sound market. Re@ltors are capable of anything when it comes to housing, and I wouldn't put it past the ones who work around here.

Whatever the case may be, my point is only that seeing a sold sign is not evidence enough of anything anymore in this kooky market. If the homes you see are actually selling, then find out who purchased them in the city records or something and hopefully you'll get answers to your questions.

Anonymous said...

Stock market is garbage at this point, I have been shorting every time the market rallies, then selling when the market sells off, positioning myself for 1929 style crash this year. SRS, QID are my weapons of choice, and hunting is great right now.