Great job Phoenix! We knew you could do it!
I wonder what the real number is once you include unsold builder specs, cancellations, foreclosures and FSBO's.
100,000?
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44 comments:
I wonder what Greg Swan Dive's spin number is, now that he is miraculously gone from a 'Listing Real Estate Clerk' to 'Buyers Broker', overnight.
WOW. I remember just a few months ago when we were talking about how Phoenix was really screwed when they hit 50k. Now they are at 60k. What else can you say but, WOW.
Hey, that was my call: 100,000 for sale by August for PHX.
You wont find a peep of this on Swann's blog
Here in Seattle when Boeing went on the layoffs full force in 78,79,80 some may recall the paper had a headline 'when the last one leaves Seattle please turn out the lights'
60k yah lights out not too far from now most likely.
And San Diego is back to 20,600 this morning - up 600 from last week. . .likely will hit a new record here by summer. With sales down 20% again (month to month) and credit crunch because of sub-prime, I would say we have a little problem here.
I was just down in the Phoenix metro area, primarily Cave Creek, Scottsdale, Anthem, Carefree area and they ARE STILL BUILDING LIKE CRAZY! Oh yes, lots of whole new subdivisions. My brother lives near a whole new planned development, something like 3K houses on Lone Mountain Rd which they are just now cranking up.
If you go to the foreclosure listings, Queen Creek, Anthem, Surprise are HUGE!! They are all communities way out on the fringe, which would cost you a fortune to commute to downtown Phoenix if that's where you worked.
I predict home builder stocks are going to plummet!!! Bankruptcies are in order. Tens of thousands, YES TENS OF THOUSANDS of illegals standing on street corners for day labor while the newspapers in Phoenix report unpicked produce in Washington and California. A lot of those same illegals are going to turn to crime rather than pick produce because those are jobs that Mexicans will refuse to do after they got accustomed to making $10-$20 an hour in construction.
The upcoming crash doesn't bother me, I'm prepared. What I CANNOT prepare for is the orchestrated invasion of America by ILLEGALS!! SCREW OUR GOVERNMENT AND THE SHEEPLE THAT ALLOWED THIS TO HAPPEN!!
P.S. If you think the Tens of thousands is an exaggeration, I wish I could hire a helicopter and videotape the Phoenix metro area as I fly over all the hot day labor hang out places. Of course the media is not about to do something like that since they are promoting unlimited legal and illegal immigration.
I was 5-6 months too early on this prediction from about a year ago. But the pundits hammered the notion that 60,000 will never happen. Looks like we were both wrong.
According to the street vibe, panic hasn't set in with the regular folks who are not paying attention to the market. It's scary to think where we will be once that comes to pass.
Also it is important to put this in context. Using last month's sales of 4885, we have 12.4 months of inventory on hand.
The HUD auctions should start soon in Phoenix. In the 91 California crash you could buy a house for pennies on the dollar. California desert housing was as low as 10-20,000 at auction where it WAS 1-200,000.
Funny thing is , I don't want Phoenix houses at any price. That place is TOO HOT! Where do they get there water? What is the new median income now that real estate is dead?
Phoenix RE market
Look out BelowWWWW!!
You think it's bad now, with 40% of the Phoenix fake economy tied to homebuilding, just wait.
There's gonna be tons of mortgage brokers, realtors, title agents, homebuilders, illegal aliens, lexus salesmen, pf changs waitresses, drycleaners, home depot clerks, etc etc etc that won't be able to make their house payments soon, and will need to sell (at any price)
Nowhere in the US will see a meltdown quite like Phoenix. At least in Vegas they have gambling. Phoenix is a town of real estate.
Was, that is.
"That place is TOO HOT! Where do they get there water?"
They've been buying up land in northern AZ for the water rights.
Phoenix represents the ultimate ponzi scheme. As Keith correctly pointed out, there is no economy in Phoenix outside of real estate. It was an implosion waiting to happen. I lived there for 7 years up until a few months ago, and the only subject of conversation anywhere in Phoenix is real estate. There is nothing else.
...the ultimate Ponzi scheme.
Good on you Keith for getting out when you did.
(:
seattle is starting to tip
"That place is TOO HOT! Where do they get there water?"
Salt river project via theodore roosevelt dam and the canal they built from the colorado river.
As far as I can tell there is pleuty of water.Everyone has a pool.Tons of golf courses to water too.building like there is no tommorrow.I see people wasteing water all the time.It is hot here in the summer but AC makes it tolerable.The heat does not bother me.I see lots of fat slobs around here sweating like pigs.I would think the heat would be a good incentive to stay in shape but of course no.
As your Japan chart points out, and the Chart for Cisco and San Diego Housing from 1991-1996 - capitulation comes later than earlier in any cycle. . .Cisco had to hit 9 (from near 90) before the price went back up, and San Diego houses had to go down 20% or more from 1991 to 1996 before they started to go up again - so be patient everyone - with this much inventory, credit crunch, and slow sales, the decline is upon us.
What cracks me up are all the people I know in Phoenix who actually believe they're going to sell their houses for 3x what they paid in 2005.
No wonder why nothing is selling with all these idiots who won't drop their prices.
Desirable areas in Phx ARE selling. Prices are stable.
It's night and day between old town Scottsdale and places like Queen's Creek.
Most people in these desirable areas are still getting 2005 prices. I do believe that will eventually collapse, but they aren't even in anxiety stage yet.
Two people across the street from me are still in euphoria and are doing 70k+ renovations.
We've got a long way to go. I seem to remember that Phoenix was listed as having one of the dumbest populations in the US...
what is median sales price in PHX? Answer: what it was last year. Price are still not coming down.
Frank said...
Phoenix represents the ultimate ponzi scheme. As Keith correctly pointed out, there is no economy in Phoenix outside of real estate.
Right you are!! 5 million people and not a teacher, lawyer, doctor, dentist, fireman, truck driver, university professor, hotel worker amng them. Nope, every single person in Arizona is a mortgage broker. Nobody works for USAir or ASU or Raytheon or Intel or Honeywell. Nope, everyone is a mortgage broker.
Thanks for clearing all that up.
I'm sure Detroit is alot dumber than Phoenix.
real estate only goes up!!
can't lose in real estate!!
get in before you get priced out forever!!
the city of Chicago (not including the suburbs) have 30,497 SFR, condos and townhomes for sale right now....
As much as I would like to bekieve devestment's account of CA house selling in 1991 for pennies on the dollar, I think it won't happen. I have rented from a psychoyis whorelord in Scottsdale for what seems forever. Low end house in Gilbert with decent yards are at least 250k. In the early 90's, the banking system was at stake. With all the securitazation happening, will the "banks" be told by FDIC, HUD to sell at a loss????????
I WOULD LIKE SOME THOUGHTS FROM ANYONE OUT THERE ON THIS QUESTION. THANKS
>> Using last month's sales of 4885.
WTF?!?!
WhoTF are these 4885 idiots?
I wonder how much it will cost to reclaim suburban/exurban areas for farm use if/when an implosion back to the city happens.
I'm so proud of my city!
"Right you are!! 5 million people and not a teacher, lawyer, doctor, dentist, fireman, truck driver, university professor, hotel worker amng them."
What an idiot you are. Completely lost on you is the fact that real estate has been the primary driver of the Phoenix economy for a number of years.
"I wonder how much it will cost to reclaim suburban/exurban areas for farm use if/when an implosion back to the city happens."
May 14, 2007 12:25 AM
I've wondered that myself. I've always wanted a home with some acreage, but in Maryland, you can harldy find it unless you want to be more than an hour away from the city.
Perhaps I can buy a subdivision, plow it under, and convert it to farm/forest?
"Desirable areas in Phx ARE selling."
dirtyscottsdale.com
I love their parodies of the $30,000 a year "millionaires". Yeah, "desireable areas".
What an idiot you are. Completely lost on you is the fact that real estate has been the primary driver of the Phoenix economy for a number of years.
Completely lost on you is thet fact that you have no clue what you're talking about. Instead of buying AL-QWEEFER's bullshit hook line and sinker, do some research and you'll see.
Keith, tell that to the idiots who are still pumping out condo conversion in Phx and South Scottsdale. Evidently, they haven't received the memo yet.
Hey buddy, stop knocking this place, i gotta live in this hell hole, but one grapefruit tree can produce thousands of seedlings every year, ditto to the sweet orange and lemon..........and pigmy sweet date, and have you seen the price and tax of paradice lately??????????, im still waiting for the desert fish farms to produce mass reproducing giagantic gene spliced mass reproducing fish stocks that eat grapefruit peels..
Palo verde nuke station producing hydrogen gasolines as socialist dollars,the largest producer in the world????, but its a dry heat!!!!!!!!!!, chicken farms in the city, fed bouganvilla refuse, even if fed poisionous plants, the foods may be safer than if fed coal produced plastics ala melaminess
and cheap condo highrises from buckeye to apache junction? in the cattle, copper, citrus, and computer state with techno on a downward spiral, after a very large downward spiral???? low ante, low keep was once its greatest selling point, guess its time to move on!!, and fight another day!
hey, i live in the city center here in this 200 sq. mile desert, and im thinking of raising chickens!?, what city center, there is no there, there!!!!!!!!!, wait till its juror duty time and you got no gasoline?
hell put another 200,000 unwanted homes????/ on van buren, in sky rises, im thinking of abandoning ship, which in that 50 mile red light district might be considered a public service, gotta stop trying to bring that place downtown enough to get fair prices and affordable zonings???????, do you know the costs of renta transients?????????
time to come home keith, as its tomato seedling time everywhere else
49,608 in Baltimore Washington metroplex. Ouch that’s going hurt! What that number does not show is all the homes that are owned by the government. When you drive through the ghetto there is just block after block of long abandoned home stock that is cinder blocked shut. That is right they brick up all the doors a windows! This is done to fight crime and drug dealing. They gave up long ago!
I just made $60,000 on my house in Queen Creek. I don't know what you losers are complaining about
Prices not going down but foreclosures going up. I wonder why they didn't sell for a profit since real estate only goes up?
Completely lost on you is thet fact that you have no clue what you're talking about. Instead of buying AL-QWEEFER's bullshit hook line and sinker, do some research and you'll see.
Wow, you're still rushing to the defense of this place. After all these months. Haha.
The OP's point is still valid, as the majority of jobs in Phoenix are directly linked to housing. Do some research and you'll see.
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