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39 comments:
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Yes, its already happening. The home price maybe acceptable in an exburb but with huge energy costs, wear & tear on cars (causing the need for quicker replacement) the toll on commuter health, pollution etc make the exburb concept dead in the water. The solution is telecommuting, smaller economic/job center hubs spread evenly across the country. The current model is just unsustainable
NEWS FLASH
Richard is BACK!!!
Peak Oil is here.
This will be our summer of discontent.
Best get to www.dieoff.org and brush up on a few terms like:
overshoot
carry capacity
thermo geno collison
peak oil
*********************************
GOT BUNKER??
I finf it Incredible that NCB aired this.
Global warming went from "crack-pot" to mainstream in a matter of years
"Peak oil" is up next
60 years ago, travel to the moon and nuclear power probably were 'crack pot' ideas too
""Peak oil" is up next"
Keith - it is more than "up next"
This concept and its implications to the survival of the human species had soley driven our government's (read criminal cabal) foreign policy on agression.
From 9-11 (the trigger event) to what is now termed the "oil grab" that will climax in a nuclear exchange at some point.
Peak Oil is a game named LAST MAN STANDING...
EVERYTHING we see, use, eat, wear...comes from oil [.]
There is no "alternative replacement"...there is no solution (other than a massive die off of the human species).
As I posted almost two years ago here on this blog...
Housing is not even a blip on the radar screen when compared to Peak Oil.
Cheers
Between now and 33 years from now something may or may not happen and even if it does happen we won't know that it has happened.
Yeah let's all plan our lives around this.
keith said...
Global warming went from "crack-pot" to mainstream in a matter of years
---
Yeah thanks to MSM and gullible fools like you. 1975 Newsweek says a new ice age is coming. 1985 all of a sudden global warming is coming. 2007 global warming is now causing global cooling. Maybe global warming will cause oil peak next.
Will all those new houses in the far-flung suburbs be bulldozed one day soon?
Nope, no fuel for the bulldozers
Gas here in Wisconsin is $3.39 a gallon. I can see the economy rolling over and playing dead already. I think the crash so many have been expecting will be here shortly.
Well, plenty of office parks are located in the exurbs. It's not exactly going to be efficient to live in the city if your job is in the exurbs. A lot of commuting is exurb-to-exurb, these days.
Yeah thanks to MSM and gullible fools like you. 1975 Newsweek says a new ice age is coming. 1985 all of a sudden global warming is coming. 2007 global warming is now causing global cooling. Maybe global warming will cause oil peak next.
Don't you just love anonymous posters? Kind of like internet circus clowns.
Well Mr. Anonymous, why not be smug with your determination and buy land in New Orleans or southern Florida. Put your money where your mouth is. There is no global warming and real estate prices always go up. Embrace those sage adages and in 20 years you can say, "I told you so." But until then allow us our folly. We enjoy our delusions. We'll allow you to enjoy yours.
NEWS FLASH
Richard is BACK!!!
--------------------------------
Oh God, where is my Prozac?
Dude, nobody missed you.
JAFO
Ice age........global warming?
Ice age.........global warming?
Ice age.........global warming?
Pick one and stick with it, Morons!
As a carbon 'sink,' Southern Ocean may be plugged
A study suggests it is losing its ability to drain the heat-trapping gas from the atmosphere.
By Alan Zarembo, Times Staff Writer
May 18, 2007
The Southern Ocean, a massive storehouse for carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, is slowly losing its capacity to buffer the world from rising concentrations of the greenhouse gas, researchers reported Thursday.
As a result, the study said, carbon dioxide could accumulate in the atmosphere faster than expected over the coming decades.
The ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, accounts for about a third of all carbon stored in the world's five oceans.
The researchers described a vicious cycle in which global warming reduced the ocean's ability to absorb the heat-trapping gas. That would then accelerate the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, triggering more warming.
"The buffer doesn't seem to be kicking in as one might expect," said Ralph Keeling, a geochemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, who was not involved in the study.
Hi There Richard!
Well, All I know is I live in Florida and have my whole life.
This is supposed to be a sub-tropical climate. Today, May 19th, is just a few days before the first day of summer and it is 1:24 in the afternoon. I just came in from walking my dogs and it is sweater weather!
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, mates.
I just decided something is really up with the climate........It is just not right. Way not right.
carbon dioxide is what humans exhale while breathing. are they planing to tax the air i breathe? sounds like depopulation measures and profiteering from it, im so glad govt has gotten its nose in that business, not.....................
"Oh God, where is my Prozac?
Dude, nobody missed you."
Ummmmmmmmmmmmmm....so
Peak oil does not care...and my posts here from two years ago are playing out.
And your point was?
The point is...
I have known people like you all my adult life. I used to be quite similiar in my outlook as you. I am a naturally pessimistic person. That being said, don't believe everything you hear and don't belive everything you read. The truth is usually found somewhere in the middle. For instance, HP tends to assume the absolute worst about housing/economy. The government and press tell you all is well, no worries. We all know that all is NOT well. But we should also realize that we are likely not going to revert to a "Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome" society either. We are surely going to see a harsh recession. We are also dealing with energy shortages. It is times like these that society evolves. We will have to change many things about the way we live. I am certain of that. But I do not believe that we are looking at a 90% mortality rate. And anyhow, what makes you believe that you have any chance at all of being one of the lucky 10% who live? I believe you once posted that you live in the Phoenix area. The Sonoran desert, and Phoenix in particular, is a peculiar choice for a survival retreat. Nevermind the harsh climate. There are 3.5 million people living in and around Phoenix. In the event of sudden disruption of energy or food supplies you are going to have a huge number of hungry, desperate refugees wandering around. Store shelves would be stripped bare in hours. Gas stations would sell out in hours as well. Phoenix is in the middle of nowhere with limited escape routes which would quickly become a traffic nightmare. I dare say you would burn through a tank of gas long before finding sanctuary.
Ease up on the apocalyptic thoughts. Life is too short as it is.
JAFO
Jafo...thanks for the lengthy response.
The human species is in what is called overshoot. That means the human species has exceeded the carrying capacity of the earth to sustain it by 5-6 Billion people.
Cheap oil IS THE OIL REASON there are 6.7 billion people on this planet. Were it not for oil...our numbers would be closer to 1 billion (with fertile soils and unpolluted water).
Read W. Catton's Overshoot for more detail on this.
In terms of "pessimistic" thinking...not so...it is called realism...you may do well reading Twilight in The Desert by Matt Simmons related to the realities of oil and oil decline.
Speaking of desert...u r correct ...Phoenix will burn and millions will perish...that said I have set up a compound (with bunker, underground water, fertile soil) a gas tanks drive from here...I have already established likeminded thinking in this small community...will I be in the 10%...I may get run over tonight by a drunk.
You seem like a smart guy...don't let MSM hype cloud your intelligence...this issue is unprecedented in human history...is happening NOW...and will have devastating effects on our food sources...civil fabrics...economies...
The likely hood of a 90% die off of the human species is a 100% certainty.
Humans are no different than other animal species.
Overshoot has occurred and now a die off is assured.
Got to:
www.peakoil.com
www.theoildrum.com
If you care.
>>>There is no "alternative replacement"...there is no solution (other than a massive die off of the human species).<<<
Technology will deliver a solution. Fisrt off, there is nuclear power, which should be embraced more. Then there are other alternative fuels: Ethanol, bio-diesel, fuel cells, not to mention solar, wind, tidal. There is no one solution, but there are many aletrnatives that, along with better consumption habits, can replace oil when it runs out. But we have to make the effort as a nation and as a world to make this happen; it will not occur on its own.
Fred Flintstone caused global warming during the Jurassic and Triassic period. It wasn't volcanic activity. Martians are causing global warming and melting polar ice caps on Mars. Amazing.
I find it interesting that people cannot grasp the concept of peak oil. Next time you are trapped in gridlock, close your eyes and imagine every major city (and every minor city for that matter.)Ask yourself if this is sustainable???
It's good to hear from you Richard. YOU GET IT!!! I stumbled upon this blog when I had 2 rental properties for sale. I got in under the wire. But the big picture is peak oil. I am amazed that CNBC aired this piece. This summer is going to the the Summer of Our Discontent.
"Technology will deliver a solution."
Not so Pete ...we have used oil to stave off the four horsemen...now that oil is becoming scarce the horseman are on the march.
Don't believe me? Look at Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Darfur, the Congo...countries on the margins will perish first and the circle will get smaller and smaller at an exponential rate as the hardest oil to get and hardest oil to refine is fought over with increasing agression in this game called "THE OIL GRAB".
Nuclear...let's talk nuclear...first it is not a transportation fuel...so you say let's power electric cars with nuclear plants...well we would need some 10,000 plants built within the next 2 years and convert a fleet of nearly 700 million cars to electric (at a oil cost of 100 barrels per car.)
Now let's just say we could pull this off in two years...currently the world has remaining some 5 million tons of uranium and we use currently 66,000 tons per year that works out to be about a 70 year supply of yellow cake...AT CURRENT RATES OF CONSUMPTION.
Now back to our 10,000 new nuclear plants...we would have at best 6 months of yellow cake supply with 10,000 new plants.
Bio fuel is heavily subsidized and will only every amount to less tha 5% of daily transportation fuel requirements...AND IS 30% LESS efficient than gas. Not to mention growing food to drive the escalade seems wrong.
When the rationing starts this summer (and it will)...the panic will set in and we will not pull out of it.
Wait what was that I heard??
...sounds like hooves.
Ability to see into the future:
Average Realtor - Can see as far as next victim
Average American - Can see as far as next paycheck
Average Illegal - Can see as far as next border crossing
Average Politician - Can see as far as next election
Average HPer - Can forecast the next five domestic and global catastrophes.
Richard,
OK, I withdraw the comment. HPer on HPer violence is not productive. You have my apology. I still respectfully disagree with some of your analysis. I will check out dieoff.org if you will check out a dude named Lyndsey Williams. There is a link to him on allamericangold.com. He claims to be an eyewitness to discovery of giant oil reserves in the seventies up in Prudhoe Bay that were subsequently kept quiet for nefarious purposes. Enough oil there to keep America energy independent for two centuries. Allegedly, the whole peak oil is a scam that is going to be used to gain control of us peons by the elites. Just what he claims, not my words. There is so much debate about this subject on both sides that I do not believe the layman can ever know the truth of it.
JAFO
Ok Jafo
I have posted a question about L. Williams here:
http://www.peakoil.com/post465067.html#465067
But this is my short response.
I will, for sake of this discussion, say that we have all the oil, yellow cake, coal, nat gas we could ever want.
Heck I will go one further and say we have access to a free energy source...no pollution...and unlimited as a renewable.
Here is the trick JAFO...this planet is finite in its limits to support populations that require its resources.
The hard cold truth is we have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet to support us by several BILLION.
My question to you JAFO...at what size should the population of the planet be limited...
10 Billion
100 Billion
500 Billion
1 Trillion
500 Trillion
Then JAFO - how do we manage to that number?
See it really is not about the oil per se, but about our uncontrolled population growth.
The human race is at a tipping point...exceeding carrying capacity leads to overshoot that in turn leads to die off.
Were it not for a deposit of oil we exploited we would never have been able to sustain food production and food distribution networks to support 7 Billion people.
Our leaders have known about exploding population growth for 4 decades. Kissinger is an advocate of culling the worlds population.
Check out the messages on the Georgia Guidestones (limit population to 1/2 Billion).
BTW - JAFO - no need for an apology...I don't give them nor expect them.
Keith has banned me before from this site and even posted a thread dedicated solely to me as a Troll...it was a while ago, but I think I have brought Keith around to connecting a few more dots then he already had connected...eh Keith?
Jafo, What's the difference with the oil we can't use,
with the oil we don't have?
Speaking of desert...u r correct ...Phoenix will burn and millions will perish...that said I have set up a compound (with bunker, underground water, fertile soil) a gas tanks drive from here...
Was that bought second hand from a Y2K crackpot by chance?
So when peak oil comes will gold still be $4000 like you loons predict?
"So when peak oil comes will gold still be $4000 like you loons predict? "
Translation..."I took out a HELOC should I buy gold over a waverunner?"
if there is ever another unabomber the fbi should start its investigation on this blog
Yeah thanks to MSM and gullible fools like you. 1975 Newsweek says a new ice age is coming. 1985 all of a sudden global warming is coming. 2007 global warming is now causing global cooling. Maybe global warming will cause oil peak next.
Yeah, mainstream MEDIA.
Real life?
Scientists have been consistent. 1975: maybe cooling, maybe warming there are two competing physical mechanisms, we don't know which is stronger in the short run.
1985: looks like warming
1995: it's definitely warming
2005: it's definitely warming, you morons.
1957: M. King Hubbert (Shell geologist guru) predicts peak of lower-48 US oil prediction in early 70's.
1971-1972: Continental US oil production hits peak. Peak oil theory dismissed as crackpottery.
1973: Oil production slightly down. "Texan oil production will quickly rise again due to price increases. Don't believe those anti-capitalist peak oil crackpots"
1971-1981: US oil prices rise 1000%. Despite this, US oil production goes down 30%.
2005-2006: Saudi Arabia and all of world reaches peak oil (crude+condensate) production.
2007: People dismiss "peak oil" theory from "anti-capitalist crackpots".
It's the end of the world as we know it
I agree with richard except that nuclear power fuel is much more abundant than he intimates, and we'd have enough for a very long time.
Same reason as why peak oil is real and will fcuk us up: laws of physics and geology.
Peak oil means peak of production, not the end. It doesn't mean "none", it means "ever more expensive every damn year forever."
Tinker Alert... superheated fuel burns 5 times more efficiently, or something about coiled radiator pipes into combustion chambers, as a method to return to 80 cent gasoline equivalency??? and buy some time!!??
but rather feed the car food, and starve????????????
"I agree with richard except that nuclear power fuel is much more abundant than he intimates, and we'd have enough for a very long time."
Uh, dude - how are you going to fly an airplane with nuclear energy? Drive the millions of cars in America? Transport all those Walmart goods from China? Produce fertilizer?
None of those can use nuclear energy. Nuclear energy will allow us to keep the lights in our homes on a bit longer, but it will not do a thing for our transportation. And anyway, we would need to build nuclear plants on a such a massive scale that it's basically impossible. So scratch that idea. Sorry.
Between now and 33 years from now? How about: 2005 was the peak? Adding all known alternative sources to conservation won't keep up with anticipated demand. We needed to do more research, which the conservative republicans, starting with the great Ronald Reagan CUT. Flag burning! Gays that want church weddings! Good thing we put a stop to that.
Hydrogen isn't going to work - too hard to break the water molecule efficiently, and H is very harsh on the upper atmosphere.
There is a way out, but we don't have all the pieces yet and time is running short.
If we could just build cars that run on real estate purchase agreements and good faith estimates!
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