May 21, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

I'm going to Vegas this fall. If I don't win should the government bail me out?


You know, I would have been taken advantage of by those deceptive casino owners. I would have signed a marker from the casino not knowing I had to pay it back. I wouldn't have known what I was getting into on that craps table. It's all so unfair! I will have been so taken advantage of!

Oh mighty taxpayer, save me!

41 comments:

Mort said...

Your analogy is wrong. The casino gives you a marker, which you lose at the craps table. The thugs who own the casino steal money from everyone who else who watched, but didn't gamble, to make up for the loss. Meanwhile you walk away whistling zippedy do dah.

Anonymous said...

Well, if you're going to Vegas make sure to take along your camera to photograph the sights, etc. HP'ers want to see showgirls, realtors, the Vegas housing crash up close, the UFC gym/headquarters (afterall, cagefightings the future after the crash!), pictures from the foreclosure auction(s) on the Clark County courthouse steps, etc. Get some snippets from the ad sections on the Vegas real estate market as well (what are the current incentives at that time to move houses?) Have a sit down with a sales rep from the Trump Tower Las Vegas development. Find out how 'fantastic' sales are going. Walk the florrs at the casinos: how's business? Are they packed? Signs of a spending slowdown? Stop by The Palms to check how many Playboy bunnies are hanging out by the pool... get some free photos! Palms and Playboy have an affiliation to promote each other, so you might score some easy bonus material for the blog. How many bunnies have their real estate license? How's the water supply there? Are there lots of unmaintained spec house developments? What's the rental price on one? Not what's published in the paper, but what they're willing to negotiate to? Stop by a bank and find out what the current LTV percent they're willing to write for a home loan now. See if they're willing to do a stated income, no doc loan. And ride that roller coaster atop the space needle!

tmaioli said...

Keith it's not your fault you were the victim of Predatory gaming.

Anonymous said...

oh nooooo, it's happening... connect the dots,, just like 3rd grade:

Housing slump hammers Lowe's
Building retailer also lowers forecast, blaming slowing real estate market and and tough comparison strong sales last year.
May 21 2007: 8:08 AM EDT


ATLANTA (Reuters) -- Retailer Lowe's Cos. reported a lower-than-expected first-quarter profit on Monday as the slower U.S. housing market pressured sales and cut its full-year earnings forecast.

Earnings came to $739 million, or 48 cents a share, for the first quarter that ended May 4, down 12 percent from $841 million, or 53 cents share, a year earlier.

Analysts on average expected 49 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Total sales rose 2 percent to $12.2 billion, helped by 15 store openings, but shy of the $12.5 billion expected by analysts. Sales at stores open at least a year, an important retail measure, fell 6.3 percent.

In a statement, Lowe's (Charts, Fortune 500) said a difficult U.S. housing market, tough comparisons to hurricane rebuilding efforts and falling lumber prices pressured results. It also said cold and wet weather in April contributed to lower-than-planned sales.

Last week, industry leader Home Depot Inc. (Charts, Fortune 500) posted a 30 percent decline in first-quarter profit as its retail store sales fell 4.3 percent.

Lowe's forecast full-year profit of $1.99 to $2.03 a share, down from the $2.02 to $2.09 a share it said it expected in February. Full-year sales are now expected to rise about 7 percent, down from a 10 percent increase previously forecast.

For the second quarter, the company expects earnings of 62 cents to 64 cents a share.

Analysts currently expect profit of 60 cents a share for the second quarter and $2.01 a share for the year, according to Reuters Estimates.

RJ said...

We, the taxpayers, will be happy to bail you out. But only if you were convinced to shoot craps because a mortgage broker and a real estate agent told you it made good financial sense. Oh, they did?
Well then ...

Anonymous said...

oopsie al-qweefer will be taxed so the fb can keep his winnings. boo hoo for al-weefie

sucker

Anonymous said...

PKK here

I think we need to look at the lending criteria of lenders. That
group used to be the one who said
NO.The lender told you if you
qualified. They were protecting
their own institutions.

What the H*** happened? Hmm:
less reserves required,new lenders,
bundling and shoving off responsi-
bility to the next institution.

Finance and household math in
school is taught by the old rules.
IF THEY QUALIFY YOU, YOU MUST BE
ABLE TO AFFORD IT. And if they've
found a new way to qualify you,
it must be based on sound reasoning. After all, why would a
lender loan money to someone who
couldn't pay it back????

Because they aren't the one stuck
at the end of the day..

All told, I think the major respon-
sibility rests with the lenders,
maybe 70/30, 60/40. Not totally,
but more than half.

Fiduciary responsibility.....
That concept went out the window.

We won't even talk about common
sense, an outdated concept...
if we live by money I suppose we'll
fall by money. Oh well....

DaveO said...

They most absolutely should bail you out. Otherwise, your loss could drag down the whole economy.

Anonymous said...

.
.
.
.
.
If you have the time please do some scouting around and post a first hand knowledge report to confirm/deny/clarify what is happening there in terms of RE. Thanks.

Mammoth said...

“What were they smoking?” is one line we keep hearing again and again, in trying to explain why so many people have committed financial suicide in housing. And who now expect to be bailed out.

Last weekend, the Mammoth had a few tokes (four, to be exact) of ‘hootch.’ It was the first time in 10 years that he’s imbibed. All I can say is: WOW! It was like being shot out of a cannon, man! Fun experience. But it’ll likely be another long while ‘til I do it again.

I must say, though, that even while feeling extremely high on “evil weed,” I thought about this whole housing thing and it still didn’t make any sense to take out an unaffordable mortgage.

So here’s the question – just what were all those people smoking?

-Mammoth

jymkata said...

You do realize the IRS allows you to write off your gambling losses.

Tanya Roberts said...

You know, there was a dark comedy released about 20 years ago called "Lost in America" (starring Albert Brooks) that featured a sceene with that very premise.

The couple sold their house and cashed out of their life savings, bought a Winnebago, and headed to live the lives of free spirits. After arriving in Vegas, the wife (Julie Hagarty) promptly lost all their savings in a casino.

So Albert Brooks' character goes to the casino manager to demand that he be given "their" money back, as it was all so unfair! The begging/rationalization scene is really a classic, hilariously funny. Needless to say, they end S.O.L. No doubt American homedebtors who don't know how to manage money will fare better, as Americans are financial idiots who are encouraged to act recklessly as greedy consumers....

The movie is required viewing for HP'ers everywhere.

http://www.albertbrooks.com/lost.html

Anonymous said...

Do you say I'm going to Angeles or Francisco or York? City's called Las Vegas Mr. Smooth. You can tell the wannabees in the crowd who call it Vegas. Is it also Vegas baby Mr. Smoove G?

Anonymous said...

another great Ron Paul vid for ya keith:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UydCZJeQPPQ

Anonymous said...

mort the dolt as usual has no clue what he's talking about. Morty old boy you're about 30 years out of date with the "thug" reference. Casinos are publicly owned corporations, get with the times grandpa.

Casinos don't care if you win or lose any one hand. All they care about is that you play since the odds are in the long run the more you play the more you'll lose.

Anonymous said...

Here's my stupid question.

What does FP mean?

I'm coming up with financial planner, fallout prediction, first person, fixed point........

I need a course in acronyms.

Anonymous said...

jymkata said...
You do realize the IRS allows you to write off your gambling losses.


Only from winnings, ie if you win $10,000 one day and lose $2000 the next day, you deduct $2000 from $10,000 and only pay tax on $8000. But if you just lose $2000 without winning anything, you can't take a $2000 deduction.

Also casinos will only report winnings over $1200 to the IRS.

Anonymous said...

Ho hum another day another Dow record.

Still happy with your 5% savings accounts everyone? How about those CFC puts at 34?

Anonymous said...

everyone asking keith to do recon on the lv market, here's the readers digest version: nothing. nothing is selling. prices aren't dropping either though. it's like someone hit the pause button.

Anonymous said...

You can only write off gambling losses against gambling winnings and you must have proff of the losses.

Ruined Invegas said...

Definitely. The government should bail you out. You just didn't understand the risks involved in playing blackjack.

Enjoy your trip to Vegas....

abb said...

Keith might be going a little overboard on asking us to bail out his gambling losses, but...

I do think we need a Federal Department of Underwriting, providing oversight for all our loans (and possibly insurance too). This will ensure every consumer is treated fairly and a this real estate debacle will never happen again.

Frank said...

Oh No! The poor gambling losers are VICTIMS! Let's sue the casinos! Steal tax money from the rich to bail the gamblers out!

I have only one thing to say: Who is John Galt?

Anonymous said...

Rudy may well be the 1st Pres wo be his own 1st lady:

http://tinyurl.com/ywvwao

The Thinker said...

Remember, housing wasn't supposed to be a gable, it was supposed to be a sure thing. Housing only goes up, they aren't making any more land, why through money away renting, bla bla bla bla bla...

Anonymous said...

Rudy is scaring me!!!

http://tinyurl.com/yvuatt

Anonymous said...

Between Obama, Billary, McCain and Rudy I pick Rudy.

Yeah yeah yeah I know Ron Paul...whatever.

Anonymous said...

"Oh No! The poor gambling losers are VICTIMS! Let's sue the casinos! Steal tax money from the rich to bail the gamblers out!"


Don't laugh. Here in Oregon there recently was a city "accountant" type (city near portland) who embezzled hundreds of thousands of dollars and blew it at the indian casinos. City and state officials spoke publically that there ought to be a law to force the casino to give the money back!

I had a better idea. How about firing the accountant's superiors for allowing a flawed system that enabled her to do this over a period of several years. Of course that was never considered.

Anonymous said...

That is a great analogy! People love capitalism so long as they make money, but when they lose they want the government to bail them out. Any fool could have seen this housing bubble coming! I don't feel a bit sorry for them. Let them eat it!

Paul E. Math said...

Did the dealer explain to you all the probabilities and complexities involved in blackjack? No? Sounds like your wholesome American ignorance was used against you. But don't try to get your money back from the dealer - he contributed heavily to our campaign fund and, besides, he's a buddy of ours. The guy you want to go after is the renters and taxpayers - they are politically disorganized and vulnerable.

I recommend you go to the statehouse and just start crying on the front steps. Weep openly. Sob. Some news cameras will arrive shortly. When they put a microphone in front of you it doesn't matter what jibberish you spew on either side of the soundbite but make sure you get the soundbite right: "I'm losing MY HOME!". Works like a frosted lucky f-ing charm.

Anonymous said...

Hey all you real men wanna bees,

Just got back from Vegas, stood at the crap table at Hooters wednesday night the 16th

I stood there holding my wife's purse, I drank a beer and she won $360 bucks ........i am truly a HP man!

Anonymous said...

Keith, check this link.
http://tinyurl.com/36vr3m

Anonymous said...

I'll take the hard eight, give me 12 condos in Phoenix.

Anonymous said...

and the Captain of the USS America said

"Stay the course!!!"

as the ship headed towards the iceberg

Anonymous said...

Captain of the Titanic,

" Just get a mop and let me sleep"!

Anonymous said...

At least at a Black Jack table you can use your brain to beat the house...now in real estate...

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith, bet all on the 13 red..."this time will be different".

Anonymous said...

Man, this NSA is a pain in the butt, intercepting our Tor proxies, don't you guys think?

Let it go again, the 127.0.0.1 IP from Washington...you NSA guys are so inconspicuous! Bravo! ooooo-hoooo, great national threat here, we are talking about real estate...danger, danger...No wonder this country is a mess.

Anonymous said...

"Between Obama, Billary, McCain and Rudy I pick Rudy."

I just threw up inside my mouth.

Some people never learn or are shameless of kissing Republican arse to make a buck. Like Tony Snow does in a daily basis...no wonder his cancer came back.

Anonymous said...

I think the government should just cancel out all personal and government debt once every 10 years. We can become the next Argentina.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
At least at a Black Jack table you can use your brain to beat the house...now in real estate...

May 22, 2007 8:57 PM



If you're a member of an MIT ring that works together and wins millions of dollars...yes. For th 99.999% of the population, no you cannot beat the house, unless you cheat in which case you're no better than a real estate type.