Is the housing crash the talk of your town?
May 12, 2007
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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31 comments:
Nope. People are still talking about the "buyers market."
Nope, no clue here. Kinda dry to plant corn though!
Housing Crash? What are you talking about? Greg Swann says everything's great here in Phoenix. Somethin about there not making more land, lots of people moving in
It's mid-afternoon, it's sunny, it's quiet, I stop back at the hotel to check my email and the drunk playing the ponies at the next terminal starts starts pontificating about the housing market.
He even got off a few HP truisms, "the harder I work (hic) the more money I make".
I don't know if this is the oft repeated equivalent of the cabbie who gave (fill in 1929 financial mogul here) a stock tip, but it certainly isn't good news when a drunk a) knows there is such a thing as a speculative housing market and b) tells you to get out before it's too late.
People talk about bits and pieces of it, and very authoritatively. Shaking their head in grim acknowledgement of the 'worst', "prices will be pretty flat this year; not a good time to sell; I guess we're going to have to wait until Q3 for things to begin to pick back up".
In short, they are talking about the housing bubble, but they are still clueless.
So they acknowledge that things are not good for housing but have no idea of the scope. They read some article that uncritically quoted the NAR and they will present that to you as fact: housing prices will decline .7% this year. They have no understanding how inaccurate the NAR's predictions have been and still are. They have no idea about all the other factors like incentives that make the median home price now completely inaccurate.
They also talk about subprime as though the impact will be limited to the uneducated, the financially unsophisticated, the poor. They have no idea that the buyers of lower priced homes are what has enabled the sellers to trade up all down the line until you are talking about multi-million-dollar homes.
So people talk about housing like they know something but are unable to think one step further and extrapolate the consequences. Anybody notice the decline in same store sales at Walmart and Target 2 of the last 3 months and 3 of the last 6? What do you suppose is going to happen at Macy's, then Saks and Neiman Marcus? That's the kind of consequence I'm talking about.
"The first rule of Fight Club is don't talk about Fight Club."
No one wants to willingly talk about housing now. It's that whole psychological thing about the downside of a bubble. Sort of like poking yourself in the eye with a stick.
What do you suppose is going to happen at Macy's, then Saks and Neiman Marcus?
--------
I think nothing. With wealth re- distribution, the rich get richer, imo.
People definately acknowledge a changing market. Everybody now knows to low ball offers. This is a huge different between know and just a year go. However, things do still sell if its priced a bit lower. THee are a bunch of properties that still have 2005 prices and don't move at all. I've seen these over and over online.
Joye in NH
Up here....people are still optimistic and/or in denial....even though inventory is 50% higher YOY.
We are sooooo special because we are the home of THE ZUNE!!!!
"Is the housing crash the talk of your town?"
Everything is quiet here in Wisconsin. If a housing crash is mentioned (rarely), it is always in some faraway locale, like Phoenix.
a piece of land i'm looking at was $650,000 a year ago. i said if it gets to $550,000 i'm going to buy. It dropped $50,000 first then 25 more then another 25 and now it's in the paper as of the other day for $499,000 and now i'm thinking i'll buy at 450,000. This is 4plus acres that can possibly be subdivide into 2. 2 years ago theses were selling for $700,000.
Not Yet, But it's in the wind.
Every radio spot is from some mortgage lender, realtor or consolidation/refi specialist!
It use to be from various sponsors, i.e. auto dealers, dentists, vitamins, vacation ads.........yadyada!
Ya think they may be telling us something?
Unfortunately it seems not. Houses are still priced too high. You'll see a price reduction ebery now and then but its a joke - $10K on a $750K home. Lots of homes for sale in my immediate neighborhood and they've been for sale for months. My area - less than 10mi from downtown Los Angeles.
Not really, although surprisingly, people here in Newport Beach congratulate me for being smart when I tell them I'm renting, and agree that now is a horrible time to buy.
This is the polar opposite of when I lived in Phoenix, where people assume you must be a common criminal crack dealer if you rent.
That town is still in major denial. I have friends there who actually still believe their houses will triple in value from today's prices.
All quite here in upstate NY, no one thinks the bubble is here.
FMW, I see the truly rich getting richer too. But Saks and Nieman rely not only on customers who are rich but also those who think they are rich and will soon realize they are not. Expect the higher end stores to experience the same slowing sales as their customers come to their senses slowly and one at a time.
seattle is still special
I used to talk about the housing doom to come. But, now that we've sold and are renting, I don't.
When somebody says they want to buy a house, I tell them why they should wait. The longer you wait, the more you save.
But, if someone says that they are buying a house, or that they just bought a house, I say "Oh, how nice!"
"Is the housing crash the talk of your town?"
No.
"Saks Same-Store sales rise 11%"
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/05/10/ap3706843.html
So far, the rich are staying rich.
I read in the NYT or WSJ (forgot) how Nieman Marcus is going to concentrate only on marketing to its top customers. They're forgetting the 'mass affluent', and just going for the super rich---apparently this group spends, on average, more than $10,000 per year at NM.
I am starting to understand the French Revolution better now.
Here in Canada (Vancouver Island) people are talking about the crash happening south of the border. It could NEVER happen here though....
wonder if that 750,000 lot pays the tax on a 750,000 assessment, as it was for sale in 2002 for 65,000, and might still pay tax on that amount, or the seller may wind up paying that 65,000 every year now in taxes
one condo on my block, out of 6 houses and 10 misc. sold last week, it was 127,000 in 2003, but associative and too much trouble as such for me, yet then the lowest price on the block
Everyone in San Diego is still happily in denial. I just had my ex girlfriend tell me it was a good time to buy a house. You'd think she'd have a better perspective being a "certified financial planner". Oh wait, they are probably the same people telling me it's a good time to buy stocks. F**king morons.
Money Magazine came in the mail today. There is a story about a couple who retired to Florida and bought houses to flip in 2006 to supplement their retirement income - WHAT WERE THEY THINKING! They said that they didn't realize the market was cooling.
I am not in real estate but I am an interested observer and I knew the moment that the whole thing came to a screeching halt - November 2005. There were signs of it before then, but this is when suddenly everything stopped cold here in SW Florida. The couples daughter, a real estate "professional" helped them find the properties to buy.
I listen to real estate shows on the radio Saturday afternoons and the realtors said that the local market will pick up later this year. I sure was glad to hear that, since there about 10,000 condos on the market.
But, as you know, EVERY baby boomer is coming to Florida and they all need someplace to live.
My boss is always telling me there is never a bad time to buy a house. He looks at benefits in the home ownership of the house. Of course he has been very fortunate and been rolling houses over to get other houses and lives on the cliffs of Newport Beach now. So,....yes if you are him and have the money and the luck involved and the timing there is no bad time. I however do not subscribe to that pov and disagree, however I nod and smile and think "no way he is right". I guess there is no bad time to buy stock since it has historically gone up and up - that would make as much sense. At least I was able to convince my Mom to sell an investment home in a crap town for way under the "appraiser" (aka shill/liar) numbers. The sad thing is the people who bought it thought they are stealing the house, and bought for $415k and have a 2k a month loan....they never learn. I told my mom to send a thank you letter to the MSM and the Realtor for roping this guy into this loser situation...if they only research a little....sad.
Perhaps Nieman Marcus and Saks have come to the same conclusion that both of us did: the rich will get richer, but there will be less of them. It makes sense to focus on the truly rich, the 'super rich', because the mistakenly rich are about to receive a wake up call. Might work. But I doubt it. Just not enough rich people. I could be wrong. Time will tell.
no - they're in denial, even if it would mean their dogs are the only ones that believes them.
ALL the pompous prognosticators are in place while the veteran realtors watch with amused skepticism as the new man whirls fat checks from his coffer.
agree. "thinking about buying yet? the market's come down..."
me..."yea maybe"
Manhattan is still in denial. Prices are silly high. But hey, Wall Street is booming, the weak dollar makes homes cheaper for foreign invertors, and let's face it - Manhattan is the center of the universe.
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