May 02, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Does it smell like housing crash fear yet in your town?

106 comments:

Anonymous said...

NO NO!!!! Price are so high in los angeles area that the only way to get into a house is to lie. My grandma's house is an area that you would not walk at night and these hose are selling to hispanic families for $550,000 to $650,000. These houses were selling for 160,000 in 98 to 00 and at 160,000 i thought that was too high. These prices are so overvalued that most honest people cannot afford for along time. And rents are way to high and going up in los angeles. anyone who says rents are going down are being dishonest. rents may be cheaper than a mortgage but still to high.

Anonymous said...

No housing crash here (Calgary, Alberta, Canada), this is because of the very high price for oil.

I paid $183,000 for a 1400 sq. foot "starter home" in late 2003. I can sell it now for about $380,000 if I wanted to.

A bunch of sheeple-ish people are asking me why I don't treat my new-found equity like an ATM or why I don't upgrade to a bigger house. What for? In the 1950s, whole families were raised in 1000 sq. ft homes.

I might be making 50% more money now than I did in 2003, but I'm using the extra $$$ to prepay my mortgage at an even more accelerated pace. I plan to semi-retire by the time I am 40.

Anonymous said...

I'll tell you after my house sells in L.A.

if and when.

michael said...

not in northern VA.

Anonymous said...

Just wait when due to budget cuts and rising costs, municipalities have to cut garbage pickup to twice a month.

Anonymous said...

That's the future home American's can hope for now that Bush has unleashed the inflation monster. Stagflation will cut stock prices in half while gas goes to $5, then $6, then $7 before Bush's term ends. Think he's unpopular now? Just wait.

Einzige said...

Here is a graph of Metro Phoenix area Notices of Trustee's Sales over the past 11 years.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Another reality check for downtown condo market
Posted on Apr 30, 2007 10:17:50 AM


New York prices won't fly in Orlando

This comes from an insider in the downtown condo market:

"The downtown market is "immature" and is only receptive to products in the mid to high $200K. Past that threshold, there are very few buyers. This is not Manhattan after all.’’

I couldn’t get a breakdown of just downtown condos, but I did go to the Orlando Regional Realtors Association site and added up all the listed condos in the Orange-Seminole area on the market for more than $300,000. I counted 758 of them.

Then I added up March sales of condos costing more than $300,000.

I counted 20 of them.

Ouch.

Here are a couple tidbits from the Wall Street Journal Online...The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of residential real estate in major metropolitan areas -- drawn from a wide range of sources in 28 major markets -- found particularly large jumps from a year ago in listings of homes in Florida. Orlando and Tampa were both up 62%, closely followed by Miami (58%) and Jacksonville (49%).
…Using nationwide data, Moody's Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa., found that Miami, Houston and Orlando all had big jumps in the proportion of borrowers who were behind on loan payments in the first quarter.

I did a check on foreclosures by area codes and, sure enough, a lot of the lower-income neighborhoods are affected the most. These are where buyers got in over their heads with exotic loan schemes. There are predators active in these areas, scam artists who scour foreclosure lists and go around offering to help people out, when in fact they are trying to rip off any equity they might have in their homes.

One would hope the State Attorney’s Office and Attorney General’s Office is keeping an eye on this.

Anonymous said...

No... it will happen when gas hits 4/gal then the choice - pay for the house or pay for the car.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Here is More Fliptard News from Orlando Florida:
-----------------

Hey it could be worse for you real estate agents and condo flippers. You could be in newspapers! More condo info inside.
Posted on May 2, 2007 6:52:20 AM

Here are some excerpts from mail I’ve received…and by the way, I’m not being negative. I’m just writing what is going on. It’s the whole messenger gig. What I say, what anybody says really doesn’t matter. To paraphrase a famous line: It’s the market, stupid… PS: excuse how some of my postings look. Figuring out this format is maddening.

Well hello there mr. negativity.
I guess you are probably investigating the whole "flipping" issue that you have written about ad nauseum (albeit correctly, just a little early) in the sentinel for the last few years. You were especially dead on with the Baldwin Park situation. Regarding the condo, I am likely going to walk on it and just chalk up the minor loss.

I appreciate your realism, I think the whole mania was a bunch of BS where the lenders really stoked the fire with all of the loan programs >(note from mike....the heydays of baldwin park certainly are over and I've actually seen a few sales for what look to be losses. But the place is holding up well, particularly the detatched homes) ..............................
Ok, I know some of us Realtor types have been pretty upset by your recent condo blogs, but I'm actually finding them all pretty amusing. True, I'm broke and life sucks, but hey, it's hardly your fault for pointing out the truth. .................... Many of the condo buyers are in even deeper trouble than you think. These speculators put large, non-refundable deposits down on multiple units back in '05 when everything was turning to gold. These buyers' plans were to sell the pre-construction contracts for a fat profit prior to closing. Most of these contracts have an "assignability" clause that the buyers think allows them to sell the contracts without actually closing on the units. The problem is that, even if they had buyers (which they don't), they still could not assign the contracts. The assignment clause requires the builder/developer's approval. As you may imagine, so long as the builder/developer has at least one unit remaining to be sold, he or she is not about to allow an assignment of an "already sold" unit. Many of these people are discovering that they must close on the units before they can even attempt to sell them. And for many of them, this carries a double whammy. First, they discover that interest rates on investor properties are higher, as are the down payments required. Second, they are discovering that obtaining loan approval on investment properties is more difficult than obtaining the same approval on primary residences. They are learning that real estate investment is not as easy as they had supposed. So, what do we have? Investors who have no buyers in sight. Investors who cannot assign the contracts even if they had a buyer. Investors who cannot qualify for loans on these properties. Investors who probably do not have the cash-to-close even if they can get approved for the mortgage payment. Investors who have non-refundable deposits. Is any this sounding positive to you? Me neither. .............. You have been quite accurate in your predictions about the real estate market, and you are probably right this time about the time it will take for the condo market to stabilize. From what I hear, Miami is even worse. In early 2006, a friend of mine who lives there told me that he was taking a cab ride from the airport and the driver mentioned that he had deposits on two condos. That, my friend thought, was a sure signal of imminent collapse. Regarding Solaire, you probably know this, but (another problem is) residents must park on the seventh floor or above of the parking garage. The lower floors are reserved for the commercial space in Premier Plaza

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_columnist_mikethomas/

Anonymous said...

That must be a Phoenix lawn around 2010.

Anonymous said...

due to global warming of course!!!!

Anonymous said...

In the Philadelphia region. Prices down 5-10% from the peak. No panics, houses still selling.

Marky Mark

David said...

San Deigo: Still in denial everywhere I look. In many decent neighborhoods there are mountains of for sale signs. Some streets have three to five within sight of each other across the whole block.

Still, everyone talks about how housing is slowing...but it might go up in spring. ACT NOW!!! Its a buyers market!

I think a portion of the problem is that so many people here in SD made SO SO SO much money as brokers, realtwhores, or off their housing ATM that they are unwilling to believe it was based on a farce. If you could make $10k/month working 10 hours per week would you believe it wasn't real appreciation? I think your mind would be so in tune to what it wanted to believe...ie that you could be a part time realtor forever and live like a king.

Stuck in So Pa said...

No fear in my area where there was no bubble originally. Most construction workers that I know are back to full time work, with mandatory overtime, because their companies are building like crazy! Construction jobs in all fields are going begging! The local (and only,) housing development is going full speed ahead. I am retired from construction almost 7 years, and I have had two cold calls already from former employers wanting to know if I might be available for work. One was in housing, the other in commercial work! Prices in Home Depot have skyrocketed, overnight!
Unbelievable!!!

That said, however, driving through our small town and area, even my "head in the sand" dear wife is starting to notice things are amiss. The "For SALE" signs on existing homes are popping up everywhere, many more than normal (in a small community, you notice.) A LOT of burned out homes this spring. Never seen this before (again, small town, you notice!) What few spec homes that were built in this area last year are constantly sold, then "For Sale," then mysteriously sold again, then "For Sale" again, etc., etc., but nobody actually moves in, EVER. Our big, and only, development is going like gangbusters, building very large pricey homes, for this area, all of them “SOLD” before construction starts, but NOBODY’S living in them (I have seen some “For Rent” signs in the vacant windows.)

Locals don’t seem to notice anything unusual, so no fear here. To a loyal HP’er however, the signs are easy to read, unfortunately!

Anonymous said...

Oh, yeah...

A neighbor is offering 10% to the co-broker.

Another neighbor (with two mortgages) has droped their price $75K.

Smell the flames burning in Scottsdale.

Small Hat

Anonymous said...

It's more like: 'What is happening? Why are so many houses for sale and why won't anyone look at mine.' People are so clueless.

Anonymous said...

"My grandma's house is an area that you would not walk at night and these hose are selling to hispanic families for $550,000 to $650,000."

And that's what you get for your money. A graffiti-laden, crime-ridden, Spanish-speaking Tijuana Norte where the Mexican flag flies and the American flag isn't anywhere to be found. All for the low, low price of $600,000 in Los Angeles (or San Diego, or San Jose, etc).

Who could think of a better way to spend over half a million dollars?

Anonymous said...

is it different in calgary ?
what an idiot you are

eternitus said...

I live in Philadelphia... No comparison to L.A., but when I speak in a public place about declining prices, I get fretful looks from everyone in earshot.

If you really want to start a true Housing Panic, I suggest talking openly about it to your friends on the train / in restaurants / at bars, etc.

To the person in LA - MOVE OUT OF LA!!!! There are plenty of places where shelter won't come at the expense of other necessities, like food and water.

Anonymous said...

Nope, but it smells like opportunity. We buy almost every week, are fully rented and all cash flow positive.

Of course, you have to know what you are doing. :wink:wink: :nudge:nudge:

Anonymous said...

I hate to say this, but on Cape Cod, where foreclosures are skyrocketing, and people claim that price drops will happen, where little cottages (the ones not near the ocean either) go for $450,000, let alone a nice house in a nice neighborhood, where horrible weather(sorry, not this year though Mr. Lereah)causes premature aging of homes, prices have basically remained untouched.

One should never, ever, ever doubt the tiny state of Massachusetts, and Cape Cod in particular, when it comes to raping people of their money.

...despite a little trend downward, it's business as usual here.

...EXPENSIVE!

Anonymous said...

Austin TX...I overheard some co-workers in the hall yesterday


"I put in a bid for a foreclosure and got it...I was the only bid...I'm so excited!!!"

Austin is FAR from a crash (we're typically 6-9 months behind any national curve), but it concerns me that a house of any sort would receive only ONE bid...that doesn't sound like a BOOM to me...just a farty fizzle.

~Poot

Anonymous said...

One would imagine that Las Vegas would be in the depths of panic by now, but it has not really begun yet. The homes here are so overvalued, that a recent new report stated that without sub-prime, fewer than 15 percent of workers can afford to purchase. This in a city where maids and casino porters are touted as RE mouguls. Should be an interesting next 18 months. While many resellers are hopeful and refusing to lower prices at least one homebuilder has decided to get agressive. On a radio spot that ran two weeks ago, a builder at the Mountains Edge development advertised "buy a home, get a car free!" No catch apparently. You buy the home at the asking price and the builder would park a new Dodge sedan of some sort in the garage for you. Of course the houses are small, crammed together and already priced too high, but what the heck.

Anonymous said...

no housing always goes up

Anonymous said...

Pasadena California- demand still outpaces supply. Lots of apartments being built. DORN PLATZ approved to convert old Ambassador College campus to up scale mini city housing complex. The market is still expanding and while real estate has softened , inflation is still strong in energy, consumer goods, and other assets. Business is brisk in my retail store.

Clint8200 said...

Things are starting to heat up in Portland Oregon now
http://www.portlandhousing.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

No problem here in Norfolk/Virginia beach places are selling. Four new houses down the street have all sold very fast. Go out most nights and you have to wait for a table. New cars, trucks and a few boats. I'm not seeing it here.

Anonymous said...

There won't be any "housing bubble" or burst in Portland, OR!

Homes here are MUCH more "affordable" than anywhere else on the west coast! CA's (flush with cash) keep swarming us and bidding wars are alive and well I assure you! Bend, OR especially, where everyone is either a "builder" realtwhore or pedophile mortgage broker. The rest of the damned country may slide further into some sort of housing debacle but NOT Oregon! We will flush nuts with GONZO bubble bucks coming out our ying-yang! BUY in Oregon NOW or be priced out forever!

DinOR

frankfirth said...

Nope. I live in the Pittsburgh area. Most livable city in the US. If you don't mind a little bit of air pollution.

sunnyclime said...

Here in western Colorado the bloom is definitely off the rose. Houses in our town average $250K, and anything less that $200K sells in a week. Houses over $500K are taking 6-9 months now, compared to 2-3 months last year. It looks like the smaller builders have stopped construction on spec homes over $300K and are leaving the lots empty, hoping for a contract. A house nearby went on the market last November for $620K, and it's now listed at $570K.

Anonymous said...

I sense no fear around here in Orange County (Newport Beach). Sure, some less desirable areas in SoCal are beginning to loosen up, but I'm not seeing anything substantial happen on the downside in any of the nicer zip codes.

Anonymous said...

No crash here yet..still waiting. Hawaii is behind the crash curve? Not sure if anyone is buying but 500k houses are all over the place.

Anonymous said...

This blog(bostonreb.com/blog)needs a little panic action.

Anonymous said...

Northern NJ, almost all listing I see have a price reduction. One OLP was $449 down 80K and finally sold after about 140 days. (Who knows what the sale price was) House looked like it was in good shape; not a dump. Also DOM seem to be increasing.

Mark said...

No, I live the the "Sill-con" Valley (Sunnyvale, Santa Clara area), where multiple bids are still common. Prop 13 and lack of new building have so far kept the median prices sky high (avg. starter home is 700-800K)

JAFO said...

I hear far more negatives than positives regarding housing here in AZ. For the most part though, I don't really see outright fear or panic yet. EZ money is still flowing as I have not seen much of the anticipated tightening in the lending standards just yet. Local governments claim people are still moving here in droves and that good paying jobs are plentiful. I'm curious where these figures come from as I don't see that either. Plenty of retail being built around here. I guess if $9 per hour as a cashier qualifies as a good paying job than they are right. Most of the commercial development recently completed seems to sit largely vacant for long periods of time. One place I recently drove by had 1 space rented out for every 13 available. That is about an 8-9% occupancy rate. Wonder who holds the note on that one.

JAFO

Kenduffelsniffenspotzen said...

Two years ago there were people having trouble selling their homes here in northeast Wisconsin. But there is no fear from what I can see.

We did have a tiny article in the Green Bay Press Gazette recently. It had some coded words. A realtor was quoted as saying the volume of sales had "returned to pre-boom levels". Some builders went bankrupt. Developers keep anouncing new condo developments, but nothing seems to get built.

Crime does seem to be on the rise. Recently four policemen pulled over an unarmed motorist. They fired off twenty-five rounds, killing the motorist and wounding a bystander in a nearby building. So the police are jumpy. If you get pulled over for any reason in Wisconsin I suggest you keep your hands on top of the steering wheel, and don't make any sudden moves.

Also the city of De Pere is taking under consideration an ordinance that would fine absentee owners who rent "problem properties". The idea is to punish landlords who have bad tenants and don't maintain their property.

Kids have been calling in bomb scares to their schools. Parents are upset, and people who work in malls are on edge. But there is nothing in the newspaper or msm about a local housing crash.

Anonymous said...

Not at all in Atlanta. Lots of homes for sale but lots of sales too. Everywhere I drive there are "under contract" signs on top of the "for sale" signs. No crash or panic going on here.

Anonymous said...

In the TH development I am in, that same homes have been up for sale for quite some time now. A few more being rented out. When compared with last year, it appears that the populace is a bit more in the know.

Batman said...

Calgary guy: I'm in Edmonton, same thing. Crash will take 3 years to hit us. When the last oilsands projects turn out to a bust (not enough people, gas, water, steel, you name it, to go around), it will have to start cycling down. My house tripled in value in 7 years and is still going up. Right now they can't fly the workers in fast enough.

The melt will hit us last, but it's coming.

Our "no plan" government will try to blame it on somebody in Ottawa when this happens.

If you want to retire, be sure to buy something that will hold value through the shakedown.

Anonymous said...

There's no mystery about the slump in pickups. Many are used commercially and the collapse of new construction has decimated the market. Trucks are the favored vehicles of everyone on the job site - contractors, carpenters, plumbers and electricians - and a lot of them are out of work. Furthermore, $3-a-gallon gasoline has taken the steam out of personal use of trucks. It's getting expensive to hop into a V-8-powered crew-cab four-by-four for a trip to Starbucks.

Anonymous said...

The human race, without realizing it, expends literally its entire efforts and the fruitage of its talents, inventions and progressive developments, merely adding to the wealth and strangle-hold over human life already possessed by those who control the moneys and mediums of exchange required by men in their business transactions with one another. For centuries men have worked, not for themselves and their families, but for the world's "Money Changers,"—its "Hidden" though "Actual" Rulers.

qwerty said...

Baton Rouge business rags, local realtors, builders, and economic developers claim that Baton Rouge is exempt from the housing fallout. Katrina changed everything, the rules no longer apply, sales tax revenues are up, and a Republican will soon be governor. Never mind that of the 50K to 100K projected population increases, only 19K were recorded by the official census.(All lies, claim the establishment) Nobody really knows how many, in the mini boom right after the storm (an admitted feeding frenzy of speculation), bought houses on pure credit with no job, no assets, and their futures caught up in insurance claims and federal assistance. There is nothing but applause as home prices go up and up, yet there is much frustration among first time buyers and hopeful upgraders being slowly priced out. Just waiting for the other shoe to drop one way or the other.

Bob Reno said...

Here in Mid-Michigan many houses for sale, some have actually sold. More and more show up FSBO, indicating to me they have no equity in the house.
Hard to separate the housing panic here from the general panic about our bad economy. Even though home prices didn't spike here like other metro areas, the threat of foreclosure still looms.
I'm currently renting a nearly new house for about 30% less than what the mortage would be.

Anonymous said...

how should i know as the only information i receive is from media people who stand to lose the millions in unrealized profits if prices go down, or from borrowers who thought cheap money in slavery was cheap profits, or from the lunatic fringe who banked assets in cash and lost purchace power to and for borrowers profits!!!!

Anonymous said...

Here in Los Angeles mum is the word. The news is just starting to raise questions. I expect to see more reaction when the July 07 numbers are reported in August. Everyone here is ignoring the news and assuming it won't affect them. They are hoping for spring selling to pick up.

Downtown O-Town said...

As set out above, local columnist Mike Thomas has been predicting a glut of condos -- and is being proven right. Se, he deserves credit for that.

But, In Orlando, I feel like that there is a general whole mis-direction going on with the real estate industry . . . they quickly point to condos as the weak link that is about to take a fall. (Which is true.)

But, this points all eyes away from falling prices in houses -- and rising inventory. I have a friend with a SFH for sale -- and prices are defintely falling, with buyers scarce.

My theory -- talking about price drops in condos does not threathen very many people as (wild guess) 98% of homeowners "own" -- or rather have their ATM mortgages on single family homes. When I mention to colleagues that all homes in Orlando are falling in price . . . they look at me like an alien.

The media has them believing that only those decadent urban condo dwellers and flippers are in for a rough ride. Not solid people with real homes -- houses.

So, there is very little, or no, fear or panic in O-town.

Orlando, Florida

Hayley said...

No housing panic here, but no housing mania either.

Did ya notice that mastercards profit was up by 70%. I think this thing is unwinding fairly predictably as people who were using HELOC's are now switching to the thousands in unsecured credit lines they have open.

I figure we'll have another 12 months of this before we hit a wall. Even with all the pain, up until that time the housing crash will feel like someone else's problem for most middle class people.

Anonymous said...

New York City still hasn't budged. People here are in TOTAL denial about the housing bubble. They say New York is different. So far they've been right. Its very discouraging.

Anonymous said...

St. Louis area "asking" prices are actually climbing since the spring thaw. By comparison to other areas of the country, prices here are reasonable but, in my opinion, the town is not so great that it deserves a big stretch on making mortgage payments in order to live here. Rent is samo, samo for the past several years. My down payment remains the bank being paid 5% or greater via short term certificates renewing and compounding monthly. Still waiting. Have resolved that if prices continue to climb during the upcoming year, I might well say adios to the St. Louie-Louie. I think this recent asking price escalation is just a dead cat bounce but you never know.

Anonymous said...

Whats amazing to me after reading these posts from across the country is that I really dont hear most people saying that they see/feel a lack of confidence in their local RE market... I keep reading... Well, no bubble here but we are behind the national curve.. Do we have a deflating bubble or not?? Im in Silicon Valley and it seems to be a story of hot or cold. My area is cold ( a bunch of listings, asking high bubble prices, not moving at all ), but then in a nicer neibhorhood a few blocks away, things are going quite nicely (Willow Glen).
Im trying to figure out who will win the tug-of-war. Will the lower priced areas where it is a cold market pull down the nicer, pricier areas or will the pricier areas start to drive demand up in lower priced areas..

Anonymous said...

Northern California, Sonoma county (north of SF).

Not going down too much yet, but the signs are there if you look. Nearby town had signs up "buy a house, get a free BMW!". There's many more for-sale signs up. Driving across town (standard suburban area), and there was at least one open house sign -every block-. Drove through a really expensive area (million dollar homes on top of the hill) and we counted 11 for sale in a 3 block area. A couple of building projects have stalled. One sat half complete, the units facing the street unpainted, for months, no work being done.

It's starting...

Anonymous said...

Getting ...tired.... of waiting.....for prices to drop. I will tell you about my EDEN after I've moved there.

Anonymous said...

In my neck of the woods--literally a beautiful forested area of CT-- it has become a renter's paradise. The prices are finally coming down at a fairly good pace but there is so much inventory and desperation that I am now paying 1991 studio apartment prices for a waterfront colonial. It doesn't suck...

Frank said...

Not fear as much as acceptance.

In Scottsdale, Arizona, I was treated like a common criminal and 2nd-class citizen for renting.

Here in Newport Beach, California, people actually agree with me that I'm smart for renting and now is not the time to buy.

I think Arizona is still in the denial stage while Orange County is on to acceptance.

Anonymous said...

las vegas, phoenix and miami are a hurtin'. that's about as far as this supposed mega housing crash goes. sorry renters, you aren't getting a cheap house in LA or SD anytime soon.

area 51 said...

No Panic in Portland OR.
There are PILES of For Sale signs everywhere and buildings and condos *still* going up at a feverish pace.
Oh, man it's gonna be badddd....

Anonymous said...

So I just closed escrow last week. I sold my home after 8 months. Walked away with $176,000 after all was said and done. Woo Hoo!! I actually stared at my computer screem for 5 minute looking at that deposit amount, damn near cried.

Moved into a rental home. About the same size but with twice the yard and a bigger pool. Rent is $600 less than PITI for old place. Add the 5% I'm earning on the $176K and I'm up about $1350 a month and living in more of a home. Woo Hoo!!

And this the best part. Today all of a sudden the hot water heater in the rental concks out. For a second my reaction was oh shit this is going to cost me. Then a calming soothing feeling came over me....no it won't, I don't own it. Quick call to Mr. Landlord, he calls a repair guy, repair guy comes and does his thing, I have hot water again, and all for the low low low cost to me of $0.00.

Life is GOOOOOD.

Anonymous said...

Read this great commentary posted by Dobbs. The man is one Grade A Smarty-Pants.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/05/01/Dobbs.May2/index.html

DisgruntledGrisly said...

LA,CA is behind san deigo 12-18 months. Actual selling prices are down probably 10% from peak 2005 prices.

Subprime only hit 1 month ago so the next 12 months will take los angeles to the cleaners.

Anything I see actually selling is either very competively priced OR its spectacular (for example a 200k remodel will get you 100k extra in selling price now)

FYI: I have mls access and check the listing regualrly. You don't have a clue what is happening if you dont have access to the mafia/cartel's database.

Anonymous said...

Not much fear in MD, though the condos are starting to pile up in baltimore and high end sales are definitely slow/ sitting. Prices off 5-10% after a 130% run-up.

Most people here, including our legislature, believe they will continue be on the teet of an ever-expanding federal govt, w/ new gov't jobs forecast at 40k. If job growth drives RE, housing for gubmint workers/ hangers on will never decline, just like NAR says! Big wet kiss to CA & the northeast from Md homedebtors!

Of course the bureaucrats who populate this state will be hard strapped to pay $500k+ and another $10k in property taxes to their state/ county level sucklings for a exurban dc crapbox.

But definitely no fear, yet.

PDX Renter said...

Here are the facts about Portland OR:

= Inventory is up 72.4% compared to last year.
= Prices have risen 1.3% at best
= Californians need jobs up here to move here and good paying jobs are very hard to come by in PDX and it is getting worse
= An average income (42K!) will not buy an average priced home here. Funny money loans are not an option.

Prices may be going up in the short term, but just wait until 2008 when all the lousy loans made in the past two years come home to roost. You will then have your pick of homes in PDX at 20% below asking price.

hamsterhouse said...

Yes and No in NE Portland. I've been looking for almost a year now. Houses that start out really high, in the $700k+ range seem to go very slowly. There are 3-4 over a million that just sit and sit. And true dumps, that should be condemed, whose owners slap a price up of $350-$450k, sit and sit. But a good home, that doesn't have a fatal layout, and on a great street and is priced between $450-550 get snapped up, often with multiple biddings in the first day. So it depends on what house a person is going to look at before they think about a panic. The word on the street is that its a buyers market. Portland is not the caffine blitzed, microsoft, tinsel town of Seattle, LA or San Fran. Prices here, still look "cheap" to the people coming in from outside. Perhaps we are a little behind the times, housing crash and all.

Anonymous said...

No! That smell is just from the democrats after their convention here!

San Diego

Anonymous said...

I'm in LA -- the nice & costly Silver Lake area -- and I would say it IS starting to smell like a crisis. We were recently relocated back to LA so were provided with a realtor, etc., and we looked at a few houses out of curiosity (even though we had already leased a nice home for half the monthly cost of mortgage/taxes). Things were still very pricey but we were told things had "stabilized."

EVERY ONE of those houses is still on the market, six months later. Several have had $100K+ price cuts.

The house I'm renting is now (according to Zillow) worth a QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS less than the asking price before it was taken off the market, and at the rate it's losing value it will soon be worth half of the asking price just six months ago. I know dozens of other recent renters (who sold recently or stayed out of the market altogether) in the neighborhood and we are all very grateful to be out.

Oh, and just this Monday -- a regular old Monday workday -- there were a dozen or more open houses in my neighborhood. What???

Westchester Chick said...

Westchester County, NY - no crash. Prices still high. There is more inventory -- taking longer to sell. Family friend had house on for $850 for a year - lowered to $789 and got a buyer for $750. Rents seem to be on the rise too making it near impossible to live in this area without great wealth. I'm tired of everyone from NYC selling their million dollar apts and moving to Westchester. Please move to Long Island or Jersey instead. We don't want you!

Anonymous said...

I haven't read this blog in a few weeks. Nice to know that the same paranoid, delusional bullshit spewed hasn't changed much.

$7 gas....ohhhh kayyy.

speedingpullet said...

Anonymous - I'm seeing the same lack of fear here in Westside L.A - lots of places coming on the MLS - all over $1 million.
Rather than reduce prices, they just take the property off the market for a few weeks and then relist it at the same, or a slightly higher price.

Doesn't seem to be working too well, though - I keep seeing the same houses listed as 'new', when I know for a fact that they were on the market last summer.

No, still in denial here, no fear, move along, nothing to see.. ;-)

Anonymous said...

I don't think there is any fear in Minneapolis/St. Paul yet. Wishing prices are down about 10% from last year. Houses I would actually want to live in are now $270k, down from $300k last summer. Looks like I'll have to live in my 1100sq ft. crap shack for another year or so before I start lowballing.

The MSM has had stories about foreclosures and condo projects being canceled. Inventory is up, sales are down, median price is down a bit.

Still in the Denial faze.

Stephen said...

"It's more like: 'What is happening? Why are so many houses for sale and why won't anyone look at mine.' People are so clueless."

May 02, 2007 1:33 PM

Great way to put it. That's also the way things seem to be around MD/DC/Northern VA.

My wife's cousin and her husband bought their house new in 2004 for I don't know what. It's probably about 3,500 sq.ft. on a postage stamp lot, per the preferred construction method of the sh!%%y, greedy developer they bought it from.

They are trying to sell it now for about $570K. Already price reduced twice, been on the market about 5 months. Mortgage alone is costing them nearly $3,500 per month. A couple of days ago, the property was taken off, then re-listed with a new MLS # to make it not look so old.

I check out the listing every now and again when I need a good laugh.

Anonymous said...

Here in Nashville sales have slowed and inventories are on the rise, but there's really no sign of panic yet. Lots of new jobs in the area and a briskly growing population, but there is new construction going up EVERYWHERE on the outskirts of town. Still though, you can find really nice houses in good neighborhoods for 150-200.

beebs said...

There are 5 [FIVE! - dagnabit!] houses for sale along a short street where I walk our dog. Two of them are left-overs from last year.

The prices are still high, with only one house stating "price reduced". I guess that one family has to move.

Anonymous said...

here in chicago the real estate add funded news papers have little negative to say but i can clearly see the 8 for sale signs in the 6000 blk of northwest hwy.

Hate Kalifornians said...

The Socialist Republic of Seattle just gained another 10% over the past 12 months. This cities real estate market is an absolute mess right now. A$$holes from california and northeast flush with cash from their ponzi scheme real estate markets are up here buying like crazy and continuing to run up prices because Seattle is one of the last major cities in the US with prices still moving upward. Local buyers have been priced out of the market. Entry level home buyers better be able to afford a 400K "fixer-upper" as their first. Rents are increasing as well. Salaries are not increasing. Home values are now easily 25% to 30% overvalued v.s. the economy of this city. But the out of state real estate investors and those desperate to buy a home (families moving from out of state) just keep buying and driving up the prices.
Wamu which is based up here just annouced a new type of loan called "Mortgage Plus". It lets you switch from a fixed rate mortage to an adjustable rate, twice a year with a 250.00 charge each time you switch. The idea is that you don't have to go through the refinance process of getting new loans. THis allows you to anytime you want to use your house as an ATM since you can withdrawl any equity you build up, anytime you want.

Anonymous said...

South Scottsdale: sales volume is double from last year. Price is the same.

Selling like hotcakes around here.

Geeeee said...

Still happy denial here in SoCal! My mom (who lives in santa barbara) just had the nerve to tell me it was a good time for me to buy a place (in san diego). I nearly went nuts.

Anonymous said...

To batman (edmonton guy): I'm quite aware that this recent growth in Alberta could crash at any time. Although I don't work in the energy sector (I'm in IT), but my wages have gone up indrectly because of the so-called "labor shortage".

One thing that gives Alberta a huge advantage is the fact that world oil production is peaking and about to decline (reference: www.peakoil.com). Alberta production of conventional energy supply may decline, but if the price for it triples, then it makes up more than the difference.

The period between 1983-2003 saw a huge depression in oil prices. Look up "The Great Commodities Depression". At one point, oil was selling at $11 a barrel (1998), now it sits comfortably at $65 and shows no sign of going down.

Notice how whenever the oil price is down, the US economy booms? That's because the US has to import 65% of it's oil consumption. THAT IS THE REAL REASON WHY the US economy is tanking right now. Alberta and Canada is rich in natural resources (relative to their small population) and will benefit tremendously.

So yeah, maybe the housing market will crash in Alberta, but not necessarily the energy sector. If the "housing bubble" bursts here in Alberta 5 years from now but my house is paid off--who cares?

The key to benefitting from the bubble is to buy your house at the right time. Buying your house post-crash is okay, as long as you still have a job. But if you bought the house well before the runup in prices is even better, because you are YEARS ahead of everyone else who waited for the bubble to burst.

Anonymous said...

nope. prices are still crazy where I live and it doesn't seem that will go down soon. I'm still waiting for this big collapse that never happens...stock market keeps beating records here and all over the world, too.

Anonymous said...

I do not think this meltdown is happening fast enough. And if it does not happen fast enough it might not even happen at all.

bitterLArenter said...

No fear in Los Angeles. Denial is strong. My boss still thinks the house he paid 200k for in the area formerly known as south central is worth a cool million. You wouldn't *dream* of walking outside your house at night in that area.

devestment said...

Stuff still selling in LA.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, this magical housing bust ain't here yet. Everthought ofa gradual decline or plateau? I like this blog but there isn't this crazzy fall anywhere(except for a few places). Houses have gone down but if you price it well they are snapped up. I keep waiting but I have to give up at some point and just buy a damn place.

Joey in NH

Anonymous said...

DEPRESSION COMING 2009 OR 2010

Anonymous said...

St Louis is a crap-hole, GET out now, dont wait.

when PEAK OIL hits,prices will drop over 75% and the riots will be like never before.

Anonymous said...

I keep waiting but I have to give up at some point and just buy a damn place.


Why is that? I rent a great place for 1/3 the cost of buying it. It gives me an extra $3000/month in cashflow, which I invest. The sheeple have turned into fools. Lose the 'must own' mentality man. It will cost you!

Anonymous said...

http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/

This is a pretty good website for getting some numbers on different markets. Inventories continue to go up and up in most areas - that's what I focus on at this point since prices probably won't go through and out and out crash.

PDX Renter said...

I hear a lot of talk here about prices not coming down fast enough or at all. Please remember that real estate prices are sticky on the way down and it can take several years for things to work themselves out. Housing crashes happen in slow motion so looking for huge changes month over month or even a year is futile.

Arlene said...

We just got an e-mail from a realtor about a Louisville condo we were seriously interested in about six months ago.

HP helped talk us out of the whole thing, and life has taken a whole different direction anyway, so we didn't do it.

The price has now dropped--twice. (That's why she's writing.) The condo is in great shape, is nearly new construction, and in a terrific and usually hot neighborhood.

If that unit needs price cuts to sell, the sound we're hearing may not count as a "crash" yet but it's definitely a "thud".

Anonymous said...

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is conducting a phone poll -- the number is 1-202-225-0100. Just call in and say something to the effect of "I'd like to register my support for the impeachment of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney." If you're tired of the way things are going, take 45 seconds out of your day to make some change.

Anonymous said...

All i see around me are homes going up for sale, sitting then going off the market. Not much selling, but the little that is selling, is still selling for 2005ish prices, maybe 2, 3% lower.

Anonymous said...

To 2009/20 PKK (63yr old grandma here)

I believe we will be in one in 2009.
This is based on a lifelong series
of dreams of something we called
The Greater Depression. I was feeding
lines of people of all backgrounds,
outside. I've been "told" to learn
very basic skills since the winter
of 1947, which I have done. I am a
voracious reader, and love nothing
more than learning something new.

I had elderly grandparents who were
from a do-it-yourself sustainable
lifestyle going back to the 1880's,
and then, most kids born in the
1940's were around technology and
thrift attitudes dating from the
1920's and back, because no one
had money to buy things during the
depression and war. I think it's a
gift.

Most books on coming recessions or
depression are about saving your
financial skin...I sincerely believe it's going to be far more
fundamental than that. Sorry.

Impeach the chimp! said...

Gas just hit $3.26 a gallon today in West Michigan and I still earn 2001 wages!! Remember the good old days?... When gas was $1.39/gal before the bush TERROR NETWORK took-over our country.

$5.00 a gallon is not far away.

Please, let's impeach these sad clowns.

Markus Arelius said...

Median home price in Orange County, CA is $635,000! Up .8%.

http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1672826.php

No one is panicking here dude!
Oh, and a quick plug:

"Now is a great time to buy!"

Yeehaa!

And there is much rejoicing...

Anonymous said...

"Why is that? I rent a great place for 1/3 the cost of buying it. It gives me an extra $3000/month in cashflow, which I invest. The sheeple have turned into fools. Lose the 'must own' mentality man. It will cost you!"

Dude, you are so over-paying. I rent for 1/6 of what it costs to buy.

buy_high_sell_low said...

"$7 gas....ohhhh kayyy."

Why is $7 so unbelievable? That is little more than double where it is now. It has doubled in the last couple of years to > $3.


we will see $5 gas before we see $2 gas again.

Anonymous said...

Fear of a real estate collapse is beginning to gain ground in Boise, ID. People realize that the true value of their house is not worth half of what they paid (borrowed from a lender) for it. Boise will see a minimum of a 20% drop in prices in the next 2 years. Moreover, wages here are pathetic. The local economy is on the verge of collapse if their is even a tiny downturn in tech.

Anonymous said...

so there is no crash or panic anywhere according to the posters here. But it also seems like everywhere is behind the national trend and everywhere things are about to start crashing and lower prices are just around the corner.

This song is getting pretty old and pretty boring.

Anonymous said...

Gas just hit $3.26 a gallon today in West Michigan and I still earn 2001 wages!!

Well now the minimum wage is going up to $7.25 so you will be finally getting that raise. Loser.

Anonymous said...

Glendale AZ.

My neighbor across the street bought a new home about 8 months ago. He put the house up across the street on the market in September 2006 for 685K.

His realtor told him how fast this house would sell because of the neighborhood and the market conditions in Glendale.

He comes over 2 times a week to do the yard work and cleaning for the weekend open house on Saturday and Sunday. I have seen more of him recently, outside doing work than I ever saw him for the 3 years he lived in the house.

His new mortgage is higher than the old house, and he has two payments now.

He says he can't hold out much longer.

I see maybe one or two cars outside on the weekend all day for the open house.

He has dropped his price twice.

I think he has a long way to go before he will get an offer and most likely will have to drop the price below what he paid for it in 2003.

Either that or he could let the new house go and move back across the street.

Anonymous said...

I encourage everyone interested in a particular area: leave a note in the mailboxes of homes with 'for sale' signs asking if they are interested in renting the property.

The answers you receive will shock you....Be prepared to negotiate and force yourself to hold your tongue. "You paid what? and "Are you insane?" are definite no-nos. ENJOY!

Anonymous said...

michael said...

not in northern VA.

May 02, 2007 11:29 AM
--------
Exburbs are in fear mode.

Inner ring of suburbs & inside the beltway no fear to date.

Local paper called the Examiner had an excellent graphic showing that overall inventory is higher & sales are lower relative to last year. The divergence being greater in the exburbs. Some cracks of fear radiating into the inner ring/beltway areas but inside the beltway is solid, except for condos which are in the toilet everywhere.

SeattleMoose said...

Seattle....still in big-time denial and "we are special" full spin cycle.

Bob Reno said...

so there is no crash or panic anywhere according to the posters here. But it also seems like everywhere is behind the national trend and everywhere things are about to start crashing and lower prices are just around the corner.

This song is getting pretty old and pretty boring.


Why does anyone expect this to happen overnight like the stock market crash? This thing took several years to build up and it will take several years to unwind . . . unless, of course, gas hits $5 a gallon and people start panicking about not being able to sell. It only takes one person to yell "fire sale" in the neighborhood to start things going.

May 03, 2007 11:21 PM

Anonymous said...

Why does anyone expect this to happen overnight like the stock market crash

It has been 2 years now since the first calls of a crash started. 2 years is not overnight. Every month the calls are for next month or next quarter it will start. Then next month and next quarter come and nothing. So the calls then move for the quarter after that and so on.

The last housing crash was pretty swift. 1989 was the peak of prices. By 1991 prices had fallen big time. 2005 was the peak this time around and prices 2 years later are down barely.

6 months ago every bubble blog was predicting spring '07 would finally bring the great price collapse. Well here we are a few weeks away from summer '07 and prices have barely budged from winter '06. Let me guess fall '07 is the new target date right?

You can trot out all the numbers on foreclosures, drops in sales and poke all the fun you want at casey Serin. The only thing that matters is prices and prices are still high as hell with no sign of going down anytime soon.

kitchenstove said...

The FB's where I live know they got screwed. They used to walk around here with a superior attitude, but that's all gone, vanished. House prices here have dropped...a lot. Every block in this city, as far as the eye can see, has at least two or three homes on the market whether they be forclosures or FSBO homes. So now all I see is slumped shoulders and embarassed faces. I rent a home from a relative, always have and probably always will, so no slumped shoulders or twisted up face here.