His column looks straight from HP today (come on Seth - at least give us a link) but nice to see the knives come out against The Corrupt David Lereah...
Quick Take: Housing's Biggest Cheerleader Moves
By Seth Jayson
By Seth Jayson
I've written over and over again about the housing-market pumping in which National Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah has engaged. His ability to make bad predictions was, to my mind, only surpassed by the magnitude of his bombast, or perhaps his ill timing.
This is a guy who looked at dwindling numbers from the likes of Hovnanian Enterprises and KB Home, saw subprimes melt down at New Century Financial, watched Alt-A get worse for the likes of Indymac and Motley Fool Income Investor pick Washington Mutual, yet consistently told the press that all was well.
I still have no idea how self-respecting business journalists anywhere could have parroted his biased misinformation for so long.
For those of us who simultaneously looked forward to and loathed his monthly trade-group propaganda, today is a day of mixed emotions. Apparently, Lereah is moving on to Move.
Move runs Internet real estate sites, something I think is a pretty bad business to be in, unless you're The Google and can throw something together that just might up-end the entire apple cart.
According to an NAR press release, Lereah will be in charge of a new venture. Note to self: Look at Move and get ready to short.
11 comments:
Keith,
Your rock! You are are true ally in the campaign to discredit David Lereah. Thank you for your support. :-)
David
David Lereah Watch
P.S. If you are ever in Washington, DC I will buy you a beer.
Checking out Google news, I see only 22 articles mentioning his departure. So it looks like everything is fine. Go back to buying your homes.
Miffed minds think alike, I guess. I actually hadn't seen your entry on this before I wrote, though I do read the blog and, of course, have steered people your way in the past. Shorting Lereah seems to be a smart move, given his dismal record.
Thanks for keeping us all up to date with this blog. It's a great piece of work that ought to be footnoted in all the texts that cover this latest bubble.
Sj
is it due to weather again ?
US Pending Home Sales Drop To Lowest Point In Four Years
Dow Jones Newswires - May 01, 2007 10:03 AM ET
By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A forecasting tool for sales of previously owned homes fell in March, showing effects of subprime mortgage market troubles.
The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of existing homes decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9% to 104.3 in March from February's 109.7, the industry group said Tuesday.
The NAR said the level was the lowest since a reading of 103.5 in March 2003.
The index, based on signed contracts for used homes, was 10.5% below its level of 116.5 in March 2006.
"Although the weather improved in March, we're starting to see the effects of a decline in subprime lending and tighter lending standards," NAR chief economist David Lereah said.
By region, the index showed a 4.9% decline in the Northeast in March from February - and a 14.0% decrease since March 2006. The index decreased 6.9% in the Midwest - but was down 9.5% in the 12-month span. The South saw a 7.1% drop - and a 10.6% fall in the past year.
The index for the West rose by 1.6% - but was 8.6% lower since March 2006.
Lereah said home sales will be relatively sluggish in the second quarter, but a modest uptrend should resume during the second half of this year.
"We're fortunate to have a positive economic backdrop now with job growth and low mortgage interest rates to provide opportunities for buyers who've been on the sidelines or were unable to get into the market during the boom, especially with inventories favoring buyers," he said.
The NAR's pending home sales index was designed to try measuring which way the housing market is going in the future. It is based on pending sales of existing homes, including single-family homes and condominiums. A home sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction hasn't closed. Pending sales typically close within one or two months of signing.
U.S. existing-home sales took the biggest tumble in 18 years during March as poor weather struck demand, the NAR said last week. Home resales fell to a 6.12 million annual rate, an 8.4% decrease from February's revised 6.68 million annual pace.
Search for "david lereah" on http://youtube.com
if the link below gets cut off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPnA1cnewLA
Movie suggestion for the coming downfall.
Just watched a movie called:
'Enron, The Smartest Guys in the Room'
Amazing, just amazing to see how everyone involved (lawyers, investment bankers, and auditing accountants) just looked the other way while getting $1million per week paychecks when Enron was nothing but a giant energy trading ponzi scheme.
That was one company that had a major melt down and knocked a couple billion dollars off the market.
What kind of craziness will we see 5-years from now, after the dust settles in the housing market?!?!??!
I’m looking forward to the documentary showing David preaching in one scene and then 5 seconds later the feds marching him off to jail in a $1000 suit and hand cuffs.
Nah nah nah naahhh, Nah nah nahh naaahhh, hey hey heyyyy, good bye.... :)
And don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out...
David Lereah,
A man who never saw a bottom he didn't like...
Haggis
The only reason people listen to and believe guys like Lereah is due to their own greed. As a wise investor knows, almost always whenever the general public is talking about and/or doing the "can't miss" investment opportunity (margin stock buys, flipping houses, etc.) it's high time to get out as quickly as possible before the major crash.
I just looked at Move.com for the first time. It's the REIC's response to disintermediation: misinformation. There are 'great' links on the site that all funnel the user inexorably toward one arm or another of the REIC. And, of course, all the text is sales material dressed as impartial, objective wisdom.
In short, it's the perfect place for a pathological, soulless liar like our good friend The Corrupt David Lereah.
Lereah is one reason why I still believe in Satan, and I know why you bloggers made his mom cry. She knew you guys were telling the truth about her cad of a son. I bet her condos and ocean-front properties depreciated too. I hope whatever he got paid to tell all his lies was worth it...but I can't think of anything worth that cost.
As for the media, they'll report all kinds of false news as long as it's "good" news. Bad news they hold back on. Especially if it might cause a scare. I still think it's because of Y2K. Lol, probably the politics passed down by the network and station owners too.
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