June 02, 2007

BUBBLETALK

BUBBLETALK - New thread to talk about the epic historic housing crash firmly underway. And anything else on your mind...

Keep it clean, use tinyurl, don't post full articles, and let me know what I missed. Oh, man, is this getting ugly now...

364 comments:

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Anonymous said...

THE FIRST RULE OF FIGHT CLUB IS DON'T TALK ABOUT FIGHT CLUB. Way to go REIC: more shattered dreams.

naplesnews.com
A party to fend off foreclosure
Desperate couple throw a please-help-us benefit in hopes of saving their San Carlos Park home

By Elizabeth Wright

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Not being able to pay the bills is rarely a cause for celebration.

But after a first try at home ownership landed a San Carlos Park couple in a deep financial bind, Amanda Stark, 30, and Bill Berry, 34, were willing to try anything to shave away at their debts — even partying.

They’re throwing a benefit bash this weekend in the yard of their two-story, yellow-painted home at 8496 Cypress Drive North, the home they’re fighting to keep. Starting at 1 p.m. Saturday, they’ll offer barbecue, burritos and live music to all comers.

Then they’ll pass the hat, again and again if they have to.

Everything they collect will help them hang onto their hopes of raising their 2-year-old son Patrick in a home they own in a neighborhood they love.

The route the family is taking — a please-help-us party — might be unusual, but the circumstances are not. A rapid runup in housing prices followed by a steep decline in the housing market and years of a financial climate in which risky loans became commonplace have led to record home-foreclosure levels across the country and in Southwest Florida.

The family’s most pressing worry right now is the $3,500 they owe Lee County in past-due property taxes. That debt could eventually force a sale of their home. They’re also struggling to keep up with $1,800 monthly mortgage payments.

“We’re just trying to do everything we can,” Berry said, be that a benefit party or the “4 sale” in their yard next to a memory-filled 1983 27-foot Fleetwood Tioga RV. “We’re not giving up.”

There’s no single reason this family is having a hard time. Name a problem in the local and national real estate market right now — from unconventional mortgages to the slowdown in new construction — and some part of their story reflects it.

They bought their 10-year-old home when prices were high in June 2006, eager to leave behind a rental in Cape Coral. They paid $241,000 for the 1,980 square-foot home, many times the $65,000 the property was worth a decade ago.

With that history of appreciation, Berry and Stark said, they never expected the value of a home so near a university and new development would decrease. The fact the home was appraised that summer for $40,000 more than what the seller took for it might have been a sign, but at the time, Stark said, “We thought we were getting a good deal.”

If they put their home on the market today, though, a real estate agent told them Friday, they’d likely face a $25,000 loss. And while mentioning the word foreclosure makes Berry visibly wince, it’s a gamble they’re taking as they put off selling in hopes the construction job market will turn around soon.

Things would be easier — maybe even fine — if only Berry still made up to $6,000 a week as a carpenter, working jobs at the Coconut Point mall and helping with rebuilding in Charlotte County after Hurricane Charley. These days, though, with the slowdown in new construction, a very good week for Berry would bring in half of that amount. Recently, he has only been able to find three or fours days worth of work in a week.

“And I’m no slouch,” Berry said. He’s at the point he half-wishes for a hurricane or two this season so the work would pick up, he said.

Stark is in the service industry as a restaurant manager in Naples. She doesn’t make enough to begin to carry the mortgage alone, though it’s in her name. That happened, the couple said, because they were told it would make the loan more likely to be approved.

The terms they borrowed under aren’t helping, either. It’s an 80-20 arrangement, a deal that allowed the couple to avoid a down payment, borrowing 80 percent of the purchase price at a higher-than-normal interest rate, then financing the rest through a second mortgage, sometimes called a piggyback loan. But it comes with an adjustable interest rate that will start taking their monthly payments even higher next summer.

Stark is still sorting through the particulars of her mortgage, but at the moment, it’s clear she owes more than the home is worth. In hindsight, she said, it was a risky deal, though it seemed all-so simple at the time.

Losing their home — either by selling at a loss now or through a forced sale later — is a real possibility, and it has Berry worried. He doesn’t know what they’d do, but they’d probably leave the state.

“There’s not a moment in the day, even when you’re sleeping, when you don’t think about it,” he said, watching his son play in the home’s living room Saturday afternoon. “I don’t cry about what’s going on. I cry about why I can’t fix it.”

The family knows of at least one other couple in the area who have fallen about six months behind in their mortgage payments, and the San Carlos Park neighborhood is full of “for sale by owner” and “for rent” signs. There are four such signs on their block.

Stark said she isn’t sure why they’re selling, but she has her suspicions.

“People don’t really talk about it,” she said. “I think the reason I’m more comfortable talking about all this and putting it out there is that I think I’m not alone. In fact, I know I’m not alone.”

In their frustration, Berry and Stark clipped out the listings of foreclosures and other forced sales in the county — both as evidence they’re not the only ones struggling and as motivation to avoid that result.

A calendar kept by the Lee County Clerk of Courts office shows that at least 35 foreclosure sales are set for the week ahead, between now and the couple’s party. Then there is the much longer list of sales for delinquent property taxes.

“I just don’t want to be on that list,” Berry said.

So they’ll just keep hoping, working, and going about their lives. This week, they’ll clean up their yard, clean out their RV and ask their friends and family to show up this weekend.

If nothing else, they said, it should be one great party.

Anonymous said...

Kuwait unpegs currency to US dollar


The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. Kosh

Anonymous said...

Are these the 'End Times' refered to in the Bible?

Wars and rumors of wars, increase in knowledge, lovers of self, lovers of money, right is wrong and wrong is right, arrogance, disrespectful youth.....shall i go on?

Anonymous said...

MESSY is the new NEAT!

Richard said...

Bill Clinton a Peak Oiler...'magin that...

"The modern world is completely unsustainable, because of climate change and because of resource depletion"....

"The world you will live in, just imagine this, there are 6 1/2 billion people on earth. By 2050, figure out how old you will be then. There will be 9 billion people on earth, almost all of them today are projected to live in countries that are unable to support them "today".

"Meanwhile we are running out of topsoil, trees, water ....even oil. Some of the most prominent petroleum experts believe that we will be out of recoverable oil in 40-50 years. The optimistic ones think 100 years. That's not very long in the history of civilization"

http://mailafriend.guide.real.com/index.html?link=rtsp%3a%2f%2fvideo.c-span.org%2f60days%2fap051907.rm

Comments start at 2:10

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Wow! ... but not surprising
considering how much the
US dollar has devaluated.

Anonymous said...
Kuwait unpegs currency to US dollar


The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. Kosh

Anonymous said...

Cut-rate or cut-throat?

By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER

May 20, 2007

When it came time for José Viesca, 26, to buy a home closer to his commercial loan job in Escondido, he didn't turn to Coldwell Banker, Century 21 or any of the other traditional real estate brokerages.


NADIA BOROWSKI SCOTT / Union-Tribune
Redfin agent Erik van Joosten (left) led José Viesca through a walkthrough of his newly purchased condo with developer representative Vena Taylor.
He turned to Redfin, a Seattle-based online brokerage whose sole San Diego agent, Erik van Joosten, works out of his Del Mar home.

“I'd definitely recommend him,” said Viesca, as he completed his morning walkthrough at Il Palio, a Carmel Mountain Ranch condo conversion project, and pocketed an $8,000 rebate. “I'd give him a '10.' It's a new way of doing things.”

Redfin is among a growing group of real estate companies that are upending the traditional way homes are bought and sold.

Using the Internet as their primary means of communications and lead generator, they offer cut-rate commissions or flat-fee payment structures.

Their clients do most of the legwork, from searching for a house to holding their own open houses.


Advertisement
And gone are the calendars, notepads, refrigerator magnets and bus stops plastered with agents' smiling faces.

“We are re-engineering the entire real estate transactional process, changing from the old to a new paradigm, and in the process of changing, there are births and it hurts,” said Stefan J.M. Swanepoel, an Orange County-based operator of real estate schools.

In his recently released 160-page book, “Swanepoel Trends Report 2007” (RIS Media, $129.95), he identified “paradigm shift” as this year's top real estate trend.

“Existing brokers still clinging to the traditional model – old compensation plans, large infrastructure and many physical locations – are very likely going to see their market share eroded,” he wrote. He identified Redfin as one of the leading innovative brokerage models emerging today.

Real estate agent Calvin Goad, who's operated in the “traditional” sense for more than 30 years, said his Re/Max Executives office in Rancho Peñasquitos and the standard 6 percent commission (split between listing and cooperating brokers) suit him and his clients just fine.

“It's strange,” Goad said. “People that will turn their home, their greatest asset, over to a new agent (working for a nontraditional brokerage) and let the new agent do it; they're not thinking straight.”

But a local businessman, who sold his house in Fairbanks Ranch last year and rented in La Jolla, said he trusted Brian Yui, founder of HouseRebate.com, to handle his $4.5 million purchase closing of a home in Rancho Santa Fe. He asked that his name not be used for privacy reasons.

“For me, the key was I tend to get very involved with the whole process,” he said, “and convinced myself that I would do a great deal of the research anyway, so I didn't need that value-added contributed from the broker. I needed someone to facilitate the transaction for me.”

The payoff: a $45,000 rebate from the commission paid to Yui.

Yui, who used to buy, remodel and sell homes, said he thought he could make as much or more money as a broker. But in 1999, at the peak of the stock-market boom, he came up with a twist.

“My idea was to be the Charles Schwab of real estate – provide low-cost services to consumers, work on higher volume and use the efficiencies of the Internet to reduce costs and pass them on to consumers,” he said.

Unlike Redfin, which expects clients to do their own searching and sellers to do most of their marketing, HouseRebate bills itself as a full-service brokerage. It saves its 35 agents time and money by providing them leads to potential buyers and sellers drawn from Internet inquiries.

Nathan Maselli, 25, joined HouseRebate in early 2006 and earned $60,000 the first year, even in the slowing market and even after rebating 25 percent of the commission to the buyers. He would have earned more at a traditional office but could not count on getting as many leads to potential clients.

“When it comes to listings or speaking to agents I'm working with,” Maselli said, “I've had people say, 'I hate how you do that. It ruins it for the rest of us.' Why not give something back to your client?”

Maselli's standard gift to clients: a copy of Yui's “Home Buying by the Experts.”

Jef Karchin, who opened his flat-fee, no-commission real estate business in 1991, encountered an even ruder reception when he was booed at a National Association of Realtors convention in Orlando in 2004.

“All of them were afraid that discount brokers were taking business away from them,” Karchin said, “and weren't providing the same service as they were.”

Bobbie Akert, who started flat-fee-oriented A la Carte Real Estate services eight years ago, said that while she does not feel blackballed by traditionalists, business has not grown as she predicted.

“My thinking was that when the market turned like it is now, my business would increase because people would be able to lower the price of their homes and get them sold,” Akert said. “But I found that they haven't done that yet. I kind of missed my mark a little bit. They're just as greedy as ever.”

Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said the latest survey of buyers and sellers showed that 83 percent used full-service agents last year, while 9 percent used limited-service agents and 8 percent needed only minimal service.

“In our opinion we will continue to experiment with the business model,” Molony said. “This has always been an entrepreneurial business.”

Sometimes the entrepreneurial spirit falters. Last month, Carlsbad-based ipayOne stopped taking listings and thanked customers for their business. Recently, the company reactivated its Web site and welcomed listings once again.

The company spent millions of dollars – including buying naming rights for the San Diego Sports Arena – to promote its concept of charging only 1 percent in sales commissions. But the arena's old name has now been reinstated.

Rob Adatto had a similar idea that he turned into Always One Percent Realty as an adjunct to his Cethron Property Management firm.

He charges sellers a 1 percent commission and recommends offering 2.5 percent to cooperating brokers. Buyers receive a rebate of all but 1 percentage point of the listing agent's commission paid by the seller. He can charge less than traditionalists, he said, because the run-up in prices has far outpaced the cost of doing business.

“I'm here to break the mold, here to make sure the world knows there's a better way to do it,” he said.

But Andrew E. Nelson, president of 93-year-old Willis Allen Real Estate Co., said the old mold still works for many buyers and sellers, even if the commissions are dropping and subject to more negotiation and adjustment than in the past.

“Buyers and sellers both look to the expertise of the traditional broker and they need that counseling,” Nelson said, while conceding the Internet-savvy, do-it-yourself younger buyers in mid-and lower-priced neighborhoods probably can get by with limited-service help.

Sonia Quiñonez used to work for a Century 21 office, which like Willis Allen charges traditional commissions. But after a year of no sales, she switched to ZipRealty, which offers rebates and provides leads to potential clients. Within a week, she had a list of prospects and within eight months, she closed four deals.

Steve Ozonian, chairman of the Help-U-Sell franchise chain and formerly CEO the Prudential real estate group and Realtor.com, said his lower commission and rebate programs are possible because agents do not have to spend money on self-promotion and image building.

“The consumer is more empowered and smarter than ever,” he added. “They're buying and selling real estate more frequently than they ever have been and I think that's making them question the old value proposition about a traditional 5.5 to 6 percent commission.”

Anonymous said...

Housing glut: From bad to worse
Some markets have seen a tripling of property listings since the housing market has cooled.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
May 17 2007: 6:45 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of homes for sale in major markets ballooned in April, according to a new industry report, adding further evidence that the U.S. housing slump is still trying to find a bottom.

In April, there were 743,367 existing house and condo properties listed for sale in the 18 major metro areas tracked by ZipRealty, a California-based real estate broker.

That was up 33 percent from a year earlier and 7.2 percent higher than in March.

Some of the markets ZipRealty covers suffered far bigger inventory expansions than the total jump. Los Angeles reported a 39.7 percent leap since April of 2006, Miami climbed 53.9 percent and Seattle soared 63.2 percent.
Strongest and weakest housing markets

The year-over-year stats only tell part of the story. Many of the areas covered had already experienced a significant sales slowdown and an expansion of the number of homes for sale well before April 2006.

The once remarkably hot Las Vegas metro market, for example, now has more than double the number of homes on the market - 26,243 compared with 13,238 - than it did in September 2005, when the local housing market was near its peak.

In Los Angeles, inventory has more than tripled since July 2005, as it has in Miami since October 2005. In Phoenix, there were 50,062 homes for sale during April, compared with 11,656 in July 2005, for more than a threefold jump.

The rise in existing home inventory has dampened builder confidence, already low from the fallout over poorly performing subprime loans. When inventories of new and existing homes expand, developers pare back on building.
Foreclosure rates sill soaring

The Census bureau reported Wednesday that housing starts rose in April, but building permits, which are often seen as a measure of builder's confidence in the market, sank a whopping 8.9 percent.

"Permits are a much better indicator of the state of the housing market than starts are," said Patrick Newport, an economist with Global Insight. "The margin of error in the permits data is much lower and it's not affected by weather. Housing start stats are like a drunken sailor; they really zig-zag."

ZipRealty's inventory data covers about 20 percent of the total U.S. real estate market, but since it has information from cities throughout every region, including most of the biggest metropolitan areas, it provides a picture for the nation as a whole.

One notable absence in the broker's survey is the largest metro area in the United States: New York.
Third straight quarter home prices drop

The Big Apple is a special case in real estate. Brokers in the city do not share information to the same degree - through multiple listing services - that they do in the rest of the United States, so data can be harder to compile there.

According to Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraiser and consultant in New York, inventory in the metro area is fairly steady. It has risen modestly in suburban areas but dropped in town.

With inventory low, prices have continued to increase in Manhattan, bucking the national trend.

Even so, an ongoing building and co-op conversion boom is adding massive numbers of units to the island's housing stock So far, demand has kept pace with the added supply.

"If demand takes a breath, though," said Miller, "you could see inventory pile up quickly."

Just like in many of the other U.S. markets. Top of page

Anonymous said...

Are US auto makers wrong to say Japan is manipulating the YEN?

Japanese stocks may advance after the yen weakened against the dollar, boosting the value of overseas sales for companies including Honda Motor Co.

Honda, Japan's No. 2 automaker, is forecasting an exchange rate of 115 yen per dollar for the current financial year. Sony Corp., the world's second-largest maker of consumer electronics, also foresees the same rate.

Should the yen remain weaker than forecasts exporters will realize exchange rate gains this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=
atyhkU89KF_c

Mr Nakagawa is arguably the most powerful man in Japanese politics after Shinzo Abe, prime minister. Toshihiko Fukui, governor of the Bank of Japan, had earlier said it was "possible to raise rates even when prices are falling".

"I would like the monetary authority to be well aware of the government's economic policy: we are aiming for ending deflation and achieving sustainable growth," Hidenao Nakagawa, secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic party, said on Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/
20070520/bs_ft/
fto052020071555496903

Hidenao Nakagawa, the LDP's secretary general and number two man after Abe, who concurrently serves as party president, went so far as to warn that the ruling coalition might consider revising the BOJ law to weaken the central bank's decision-making power. He said if the BOJ "cannot unify its judgment on the economy and policy targets to conform to those of the government, it will represent a major flaw in the legal system".

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/
Japan/IB22Dh02.html

Anonymous said...

The End of Times?

Don't go blaming this one on the Lord...

This was a stoopid idea, one right after another.

Low-budget life said...

Just stumbled across this interesting blog. All I can say is - please make it so! Please let there be a crash. Please let the central bankers and governments not have any further tricks to eeeelooongate the bubble anymore. The UK's is in even worse state through a mad housing bubble - couples with good incomes can't afford kids, we have a liquid economy based on nothing but debt-fuelled property speculation that's trebled or even quadrupled prices in a decade. If the US can get the ball rolling with a decent crash there's hope for us yet...

Anonymous said...

Geez, it would be nice if you people would provide tinyurl links to the articles, instead of copy'n'pasting 'em into your posts.

The Thinker said...

I am not "The Speller," I am "The Thinker."

Richard said...

"Geez, it would be nice if you people would provide tinyurl links to the articles, instead of copy'n'pasting 'em into your posts. "

Geez would be nice to have all posters with handles.

Oh well.

Anonymous said...

Questions Ron Paul Can Easily Answer That Will Make Other Politicians Squirm
_______

How many times have you voted to raise taxes?

How many times have you voted for an unbalanced budget?

How many times have you voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership?

How many times have you voted to raise congressional pay?

How many times have you taken a government-paid junket?

How many times have you voted to increase the power of the executive branch?

Did you vote for the Patriot Act?

Have you ever voted against regulating the Internet?

Did you vote for the Iraq war?

Do you participate in the lucrative congressional pension program?

_______

Dr. Paul's answer to every question above would be either "no" or "never", and almost every other politician's answer would be "yes" or "x (greater than zero) number of times"!!!

Anonymous said...

Oy! You gave Casey Serin money? WTF?

The Stinker said...

I am not "The Thinker", I am "The Narcissistic Asshole"

fmw said...

From exurbannation.blogspot.com
about Iamfacingforclosure.

IAFF HATERZ link below.
---------------------------


At 3:36 PM, Anonymous said...

You gotta love how Snowflake "accidentally" mis-typed the URL for Housing Panic. Keith's $50 sure went to good use.
--------------------
http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2007/05/
case-for-complicity.html#comments

Anonymous said...

hey keep the noise down will ya. national openhouse is on tv now.....people are on there bragging about how much their houses have increased in value since they bought them.........cool.....

Anonymous said...

Flippers are done.
Home equity and credit cards tapped out.
Home projects put off due to adjusting mortgage rates.
New construtction dropping off a cliff.

Home Depot and Lowes lowered outlook for 07' and crap #s for 1st Qtr - surprise not..

Blaming the housing market and bad weather. I guess the weather was not so bad in 2004 - 2006.

I am glad. The home improvement stores are not so crowded now on the weekends. Good or bad weather.

Anonymous said...

I think these people may qualify for Stupidest Couple of the Year Award:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/22/magazines/moneymag/retirement_interrupted.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007052212

Keyser Soze said...

Keith - you might consider covering that IndyMac short.

Anonymous said...

Was at 2 Home Depots and a Lowes this past weekend- the parking lot a Lowes was surprisingly busy, the 2 Home Depots not busy at all. This is in NOVA (Alexandria area)

Anonymous said...

Check out the below story from CNN - A retired couple in Dayonta put all their eggs in investment property that they cannot unload. After all that, they still belive in real estate as an investment.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/22/magazines/moneymag/retirement_interrupted.moneymag/index.htm?cnn=yes

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul getting mainstream GOP support in California: http://www.ronpaul2008.typepad.com/

Anonymous said...

Let it go, here's a Money article which depicts well how Baby Boomers behave. Amazing, this couple was making more than $200k and ended up broke trying to flip properties in Florida to retire earlier. Check their Balance Sheet on the right column for the usuals: leased Mercedes, credit-card payments of $6k / month, financed vacation home, no savings, $1k /month for groceries and eating out. It's a Baby Boomer classic.

http://tinyurl.com/353uts

Anonymous said...

“Surging defaults on subprime mortgages, which cater to borrowers with poor credit histories, and more than two dozen collapsing lenders are exacerbating the already precarious U.S. housing market.”

“Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo said depreciating home values are the main culprit.”

“‘The cause of the problem that we have today is decreasing values. That’s the cause of the problem, because we didn’t have delinquencies and foreclosures when values were going up,’ he said at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference.”

“‘First-time home buyers were begging us to make them loans because they thought home values were going up significantly, and so they put a lot of pressure on us to make them loans,’ he said.”

*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*#*

spontaneous combustion would be too good for Angelo.

housing hater said...

WSJ article about the ridiculous way people budget and mortgage the future.

http://tinyurl.com/29joue

Anonymous said...

Japanese asset price bubble

They talk about a "second bubble" and a "new Japan boom" centered around the new money in Roppongi (Hirusu zoku, Tokyo midtown, all that trendy bling bling) but I just don't see it happening. My prognosis: slow and gentle decay.

I have lots of theories about this but they aren't "politically correct" so I will hold my tongue

Perhaps one theories is the challenge of power.

As with the changing of the guards from the Zaibatsu to the Keiretsu in the past half century.

Who will emerge as the new guard of Japan? Will the Keiretsu go down without a fight?

Are new generation of families that came up the rank from the technological boom going to succeed in pushing out the Keiretsu or will they fell like Takafumi Horie of Livedoor?

Why Japan needs a changing of the old guard

IN his glory days as a flashy, high-living, internet entrepreneur, Takafumi Horie struck fear and loathing into Japan's business establishment by staging audacious stock market manoeuvres and corporate raids that briefly made him a national hero.

Today, the former head of Livedoor is fighting to remain a free man. The reason, he told the Financial Times last week, is that the establishment is taking its revenge. Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?

Livedoor is in ruins, as is Horie's reputation as self-styled standard-bearer of a bold new breed of Japanese capitalism. A verdict will be handed down soon in his trial on charges of falsifying corporate accounts and violating securities laws. If found guilty, he could face five years in prison.

Horie is a discredited figure and his attempts to blame his downfall entirely on the system are clearly self-serving. Yet he has a point. Well before he was accused of breaking the law, members of Japan's business elite had already condemned him as a pariah. In their eyes, his biggest sin was daring to challenge vested interests and the status quo. Doing so was worse than impudent - it threatened the existing order.

Yet a shake-up of the order is exactly what Japan needs. In spite of the brutal economic restructuring imposed by a decade of deflation, a tenacious yearning to cling to the old ways persists. Networks of keiretsu cross-shareholdings may have been unwound. Foreigners may own a quarter of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Rules-based market supervision may be eroding tribalistic ties. But Japan's clubbish old guard is still not prepared to change its ways easily.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.
au/story/0,20867,20963469-36375,
00.html

The Keiretsu is still in charge and the are still pulling the strings, just ask the Minister of Finance.

Japan MoF`s Omi says it is up to the BoJ to decide interest rates. Adding that forex rates should be decided under the market mechanism but should reflect fundamentals.

http://www.forexnews.com/in/
default.asp?f=I20070510-
080726.mgn

Perhaps MoF`s Omi really meant that BOJ need to watch the fundamental interest of the Keiretsu.

Anonymous said...

4PM Pay No Attention to My Hooves
Realtor: Want a cookie?
Investor: Nah, I can't -- it's not kosher.
Realtor: Sure it is.
Investor: No, I can't. I'm Jewish. I gotta abide by the law.
Realtor: Come on, it's just one cookie.

Cleveland, Ohio

Overheard by: Amused assistant

http://www.overheardintheoffice.com/

Anonymous said...

Did one of you (near Irvine, CA) do this to this real estate agent's golf cart?

RE agent dies after golf cart plunges off cliff

Anonymous said...

4PM Pay No Attention to My Hooves
Realtor: Want a cookie?
Investor: Nah, I can't -- it's not kosher.
Realtor: Sure it is.
Investor: No, I can't. I'm Jewish. I gotta abide by the law.
Realtor: Come on, it's just one cookie.

Cleveland, Ohio

Overheard by: Amused assistant

http://www.overheardintheoffice.com/

Cactus Dave said...

4PM Pay No Attention to My Hooves
Realtor: Want a cookie?
Investor: Nah, I can't -- it's not kosher.
Realtor: Sure it is.
Investor: No, I can't. I'm Jewish. I gotta abide by the law.
Realtor: Come on, it's just one cookie.

Cleveland, Ohio

Overheard by: Amused assistant

http://www.overheardintheoffice.com/

Anonymous said...

Even though I knew what was coming, seeing the particular details play out feels surreal.

My parents live in a very wealthy area which is being forever changed by defaults. It seems even the very comfortably off got caught up in the craziness. I feel so sad.

Anonymous said...

mozilo at countrywide continues to dump stock........oh heck , nothing to see here, folks, move along please.......

Anonymous said...

I am glad. The home improvement stores are not so crowded now on the weekends. Good or bad weather.

heck the home despot by me , a lot of times, has more employees in it than customers........suits me ok......everyone asking you , can we help you sir? nice......but not for their bottom line, i would think...

Anonymous said...

New Today! Paulson Now Sees “Major Housing Correction”

http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=194

Excerpt features Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson discussing his assessment of the housing decline and his outlook for the future. Paulson suggests that the US has experienced a “major” housing correction that was inevitable after years of historic gains. “That correction has now been significant, we think it is near the bottom, it will take a while to work its way through the system.” Unfortunately, Paulson only reiterates the same guidance he offered last year prior to the housing market taking another major leg down.

Originally aired on: 5/21/2007 on New Hour

Running Time: 1 minutes 29 seconds

Anonymous said...

The U.S. is in decline! Time to "punch out". What's happening here is like a "bad nightmare". With George W. Bush as Michael Myers!

Anonymous said...

21-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
21-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.64 per share. $1,869,440
18-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
18-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.14 per share. $2,879,800
16-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
14-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
14-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.26 per share. $2,818,200
10-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
10-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.68 per share. $2,847,600
8-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
8-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.78 per share. $2,714,600
7-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
7-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.48 per share. $1,770,079
4-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
4-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.03 per share. $1,749,380
2-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
2-May-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.54 per share. $2,627,800
30-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
30-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.45 per share. $1,768,700
27-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
27-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.35 per share. $2,684,500
23-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
23-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.33 per share. $2,613,100
20-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
20-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.84 per share. $1,740,640
18-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
18-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.25 per share. $2,607,500
16-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $10.89 per share. $500,940
16-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $34.93 per share. $1,606,780
13-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 - $10.89 per share. $471,0002
13-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $33.60 per share. $1,545,600
11-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
11-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $33.46 per share. $2,342,200
4-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
4-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $33.33 per share. $2,333,100
2-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 152,766 Direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share. N/A
2-Apr-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
30-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
30-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $33.83 per share. $1,556,180
23-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
23-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $36.40 per share. $1,674,400
20-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $35.34 per share. $2,473,800
15-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
15-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $35.63 per share. $1,638,980
12-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
12-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $35 per share. $2,450,000
8-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
8-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.47 per share. $2,622,900
6-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
6-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $36.32 per share. $1,670,720
5-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
5-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $35.19 per share. $2,463,300
2-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
2-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.18 per share. $1,710,280
1-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
1-Mar-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.10 per share. $2,597,000
28-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
28-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.91 per share. $1,743,859
22-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.45 per share. $2,831,500
21-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
21-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.77 per share. $1,875,420
21-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
15-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
15-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.88 per share. $2,931,600
12-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
12-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.19 per share. $2,883,300
9-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
9-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $43.69 per share. $2,009,740
8-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
8-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $43.47 per share. $3,042,900
5-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $441,600
5-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 46,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $44.61 per share. $2,052,060
2-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
2-Feb-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $44.52 per share. $3,116,400
26-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $220,800
26-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.40 per share. $929,200
24-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
24-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.65 per share. $2,915,500
22-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $220,800
22-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.27 per share. $949,210
19-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
19-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.24 per share. $2,886,800
18-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $220,800
18-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.35 per share. $928,050
11-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $220,800
11-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $42.18 per share. $970,140
10-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
10-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $42.12 per share. $2,948,400
8-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
8-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $42.05 per share. $2,943,500
5-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $220,800
5-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 23,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $42.37 per share. $974,509
4-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
4-Jan-07 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $42.22 per share. $2,955,400
18-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
18-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.66 per share. $2,916,199
15-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
15-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.46 per share. $2,902,200
11-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
11-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.06 per share. $2,804,200
8-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
8-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $39.93 per share. $2,795,100
4-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
4-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 25,000 Indirect Automatic Sale at $39.99 per share. $999,750
4-Dec-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $39.98 per share. $2,798,600
29-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 25,000 Indirect Automatic Sale at $39.88 per share. $997,000
21-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 47,999 Direct Automatic Sale at $39.79 per share. $1,909,880
20-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
20-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.20 per share. $2,814,000
16-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 48,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.65 per share. $1,951,200
13-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
13-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.13 per share. $2,809,100
10-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
10-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.93 per share. $2,725,100
6-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
6-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 93,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.46 - $38.84 per share. $3,594,0002
1-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 70,000 Direct Option Exercise at $9.60 per share. $672,000
1-Nov-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 93,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.31 - $38.34 per share. $3,564,0002
8-Jun-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 6,805 Direct Option Exercise at $14.69 per share. $99,965
25-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,792 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $85,793
25-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,792 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.75 per share. $558,398
24-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.86 per share. $560,062
24-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $85,799
23-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Automatic Sale at $38.26 per share. $565,980
23-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $85,799
22-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Automatic Sale at $39 per share. $576,927
22-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $85,799
19-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Automatic Sale at $39.75 per share. $588,021
19-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 14,793 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $85,799
18-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.47 per share. $2,124,675
18-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500
15-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.62 per share. $2,185,050
15-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500
12-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $41.45 per share. $2,176,125
12-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500
8-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $42.82 per share. $2,248,050
8-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500
5-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.60 per share. $2,131,500
5-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500
1-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $40.54 per share. $2,128,350
1-May-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500
24-Apr-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Automatic Sale at $37.42 per share. $1,964,550
24-Apr-06 MOZILO ANGELO R
Officer 52,500 Direct Option Exercise at $5.80 per share. $304,500

Anonymous said...

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/22/magazines/moneymag/retirement_interrupted.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007052212

Check out these tards. LOL.

Anonymous said...

"http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/22/magazines/moneymag/retirement_interrupted.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007052212

Check out these tards. LOL. "

Complete dumbass! It's hard to believe someone like this actually made a six-figure salary.

Guy Daley said...

Zales the big jewelry retailer has a loss for the last quarter. They are blaming it on cost of fuel.

What happened to blaming it on the weather?

Well we know Americans are too stupid to cut back on driving. They won't figure out that they need to do something different until there credit cards are maxed out if they aren't already.

Is it true most Americans are like the frog in the pot of water?

Anonymous said...

$1500 a month for 180 months at 6% adds up to a loan value of $177,775. If I were to do ~20% down payment, that means I can get a $225,000 home. That means I need to walk into the closing with about $47,000 cash for down payment, plus $2000 for an inspection, plus closing costs of about $6000. That's $55,000 of cash to buy in.

Dude where the hell do you live that an inspection costs $2000 and you have $6000 closing costs on a $225K home?

A inspection should be no more than $350 and on a $225K home closing costs of $2000 would be high.

Anonymous said...

They are not retards. They are victims in need of a federal bailout.

Duh

Anonymous said...

If its a secular bear market in real estate the prices will go down or stagnate for an average average 17 years before they start to rise again. but the taxes will increase every year on the evaluation most likely the highest given and not be adjustable lower unless the property is sold, as i remember in N.Y

Guy Daley said...

Haha, Schadenfreude big time.

Entire state of Michigan, gas prices are $3.60 - $3.72.

You know, the state where they make gas guzzlers and have no concern for the future. The state that can only look ahead a year, maybe two at a time.

You know whats really ironic is whenever a big company or government has a big title open, they always have to do a nationwide search that costs Tens of thousands of dollars and to find what? another idiot that can only look ahead one or two years max? Ford, GM and Chrysler don't deserve to wash Toyota and Honda's underwear. Ford and GM, dinosaurs trying to compete with the present.

Americans, too dumb to see past the beer and/or cigarette at the end of there arm. Well, maybe a little further, but no further than the wide screen TV, that's a fact.

Example: More people call in for American idol by many factors than call in protesting the new immigration backstabbing bill.

Anonymous said...

Tinker Alert, superheated fuel burns five times more efficiently.. something about coils around radiators into combustion chambers??, sounds like equivalentcy to 80 cents a gallon??????????

westwest888 said...

http://tinyurl.com/2ylaww

This time around, Jeremy Grantham, well-known skeptic, who has called a few bear markets correctly in his career, has written to his clients that we are in the middle of a bubble of historic proportions. "Everything is in bubble territory," he says. "Everything. The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets."

Yikes.

Richard said...

The OIL GRAB continues...

http://www.alertnet .org/thenews/ newsdesk/ L23607496. htm

Nine U.S. warships enter Gulf for training
23 May 2007 04:19:12 GMT
Source: Reuters

MANAMA, May 23 (Reuters) - Nine U.S. military ships, including two
aircraft carriers, passed through the Straights of Hormuz on
Wednesday, the largest number of U.S. military vessels to enter the
Gulf since 2003, the U.S. military said.

It said the ships were entering the area for training.

westwest888 said...

Dude where the hell do you live that an inspection costs $2000 and you have $6000 closing costs on a $225K home?

A inspection should be no more than $350 and on a $225K home closing costs of $2000 would be high.


To get a licensed engineer to come to your house it's $1000-$3000. To get the lawyers and whoever else at your closing, it's always $5k or more.

I live in Washington, DC.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Keith, Milan 2 X 1 Liverpool. Milan is the European champion. No wonder, with Kaka and Dida playing. Kaka is the best player in the world.

Anonymous said...

If you liked the story about that couple of screwed flippers in Daytona, you will love this story about Americans deep into credit trouble. Unbelievable stuff. Get to know your FB neighboors:

http://tinyurl.com/3y6vfa

Anonymous said...

Well, it's official: Greenspan is Paulson's bubble deflater. It's pathetic because they create bubbles and then come to deflate them with announcements.

Guy Daley said...

I'm well aware I shouldn't be feeding the trolls, but where there is one 'tard there are generally others so...

To the amazing, indefatigible 'tard that keeps trumpeting the DOWs new highs:

The DOW is comprised of 30 stocks and only 30 stocks. Lo and behold 'tard, there are tons of poorly performing stocks, namely retail. Since your head is up the DOWs ass never to see the light of the real world I'll help illustrate and point out more CLUES which are EVERYWHERE if you bothered to open your eyes.

Everybody knows about Home Depots and Lowes difficulties but here is some upscale pain. Dillards got a dose of consumer recessionism.

Dillard's Profit Falls on First Sales Drop in 2 Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aH25CAf0K2ps&refer=us

The stock declined the most in almost eight months.

The ripples hit the pond on that one as retail did quite poorly yesterday. Wow, its amazing what happens when the Housing ATM spigot is turned off.

WILL YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THE CLUES IF THEY ARE SHOVED IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE?!!

If anybody else is willing to extrapolate from this, we don't need millions and millions of illegals as there is a recession heading this way, the storm clouds are forming and it should be JOBS FOR CITIZENS FIRST!!!!

P.S. Check out the amazing amount of construction labor available on Phoenix Craigslist and the construction tools for sale.

Guy Daley said...

More delicious clues:

Toll Brothers

Toll Brothers said second-quarter profit tumbled 79 percent to 22 cents a share, missing analyst estimates.

I expect them to start losing money in two more quarters.

Here is a spectacular retail clue. FL = Foot locker. Foot locker you exclaim? So What?!

I'll tell you so what.

As of February 3, 2007, the company operated 3,942 stores in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.

I guess 3942 stores is pretty unimportant at least for the DOW trumpeting 'tard.

Athletic shoe and apparel retailer Foot Locker reported a 71% drop in net income Wednesday on markdowns at U.S. stores and lower same-store sales. Q1 net income fell to $17 million ($0.11/share) from $59 million ($0.38) a year ago. Same-store sales dropped 5.1%.

Now if the tard can stop looking at the DOW for a couple of seconds, he just might notice a trend. NOT!!

Guy Daley said...

Another fascinating clue, this time concerning the price of fuel. From CRAIGLIST again:

1997 Ford Ranger XLT-MUST SELL THIS WEEK - $4500

MUST SELL TO BUY FUEL FOR THE GAS GUZZLER I USE FOR WORK!

My goodness; how the long commute for the "good school district" home buyers must be suffering right now. Don't ever let anybody tell you children aren't expensive. (unless your an illegal immigrant of course, taxpayers have deep pockets)

Crashdiver said...

Found this at SeekingAlpha and it truly is the best site out there!


Web Site of the Day

http://boomerang.osgcorp.com/osg-hardtack/

OSG Boomerang Technology- Hardtack is not just another market tracker site. Started by Robert Wade and his co-workers at the OSG Corp., (an IT outfit), the site tracks cities around the country according to census data, median house prices; as of one hour ago or one month ago (with the price change); or national market leaders by region and state—and lots more.

OSG Boomerang also offers charts on national inventory rates by range of price and by category (single family homes, condos, etc.), and tables on price range change, properties sold—even which region people were most interested in on the site.

Which is all well and good, but the BEST part of this site is the 'Google Earth' type maps which let you zoom in on a specific area and get all the info you need about that particular area. If you type in say, Black Eagle, Montana, you'll get a satellite photo view of the area as well as an icon indicating when the info for that area was updated last. (May 22nd, for those of you interested in Black Eagle, Montana…)

Informative, and very cool.

Anonymous said...

Home Sales Soar by Record Level
AP - Sales of new homes surged in April by the biggest amount in 14 years, but the median price of a new home dropped by the largest amount on record. The mixed signals left no clear picture of whether the worst of the nation's housing slump is over.


So tell us how much you lost on your shorts

Guy Daley said...

Clue:

Northern B.C. town surprised by mill closure: mayor

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2007/05/23/canfor.html

Would it surprise anybody to know that the mill management blames it on quote:

Canfor said the cutbacks are due to a market downturn spurred by falling housing starts in the United States.

The company's interim president and CEO, James Shepard, said Tuesday he had been directed by the company's board to cut costs "and position the company to weather this market downturn, which is the worst this industry has seen in decades."

Guy Daley said...

Home Electricity Rates going up 11.5% in Las Vegas starting June 1.

Can you say more homeowner stress?

That on top of gas on top of adjusting ARMs, exploding grocery prices, etc, etc. Watch the toy list on Craiglist Vegas for lots of bargains.

P.S. Inflation is under control, Suzanne said so....I mean our government said so.

Anonymous said...

Home Electricity Rates going up 11.5% in Las Vegas starting June 1.

That is nothing electrcity rates are going up 50% in maryland.That is right five zero percent.

Richard said...

"Home Electricity Rates going up 11.5% in Las Vegas starting June 1.

That is nothing electrcity rates are going up 50% in maryland.That is right five zero percent. "

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

May want to read up on Richard Duncan's Olduvai Cliff Theory.

2008-2001 lights out.

Have a nice die off.

westwest888 said...

http://tinyurl.com/2lwtgu

American Express will let you put your mortgage payment on your credit card now. Don't worry though - they ONLY lend to affluent consumers. You know, people who currently or once had a job.

steven edward streight said...

bohica is bend over here it comes again

ha ha, first heard that from Vanilla Bean on WFMU in the 80s, when my band Camouflage Danse played there...

Anonymous said...

What? No RuPaul is the new Jesus post today?

shtove said...

Does this really say anything about Dick Cheney?
http://tinyurl.com/2auffq
There's no way this man would have anything to do with repulsive, immoral people.

dcbubble.blogspot said...

Washington DC recorded the greatest jump in foreclosure filing activity during April 2007 with a 42 percent increase over last month.

Oh wait. There were 58 foreclosures in DC in April. 58. That was quite a jump.

http://dcbubble.blogspot.com/2007/05/another-reason-dc-housing-remains.html

burn baby burn said...

Holly Shit

I am sitting here watching Charley Rose and Lee Iacocca just spoke the truth. He Said he felt that Dick Cheney is the "De facto President" "I think he runs the country I can not prove it but that is what I think". I mean we all knew this but Lee Iacocca spoke the truth. He was talking about his new book where have all the real leaders gone?

I have always said it is like when you were a kid and you would sit on your dads lap and he would work the pedals and "you would get to drive the car". I have always thought that is how W got where he is, that and the Peter Principle.

Cheney was always a wink and a nod that no f ing way would we let this stupid, alcoholic (once one always one), coke head (see note after alcoholic ) run the country.

dcbubble.blogspot said...

WashExam headline says it all: "National, local housing market data mixed, but District shows recovery signs."

http://dcbubble.blogspot.com/2007/05/washexam-dc-real-estate-market.html

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Dick Cheney is the "De facto President"
----------------
Yep. Darth Cheney is the "Seat of the Power Grab". Old news on line, but good for them.

Anonymous said...

Oh, love that "progress".


Yes, Virginia, Generation X really is fucked


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- American men in their 30s are earning less than their father's generation did, challenging a long-held belief that each generation will be better off than the one that preceded it, according to a new study published Friday.

The report, the first in an ongoing 18-month study on economic mobility in the United States, also revealed that the income growth of the median American household is declining.

The study was produced by a handful of politically diverse think tanks including the Pew Charitable Trusts, the American Enterprise Institute, the Brookings Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the Urban Institute. It looked at income levels of American men in their 30s, which can be a good indicator of lifetime income.


Relying on Census Bureau figures, the study's authors found that after adjusting for inflation, men in their 30s in 2004 had a median income of about $35,000 per year, for a 12 percent drop compared with $40,000 per year for men in the same age group in 1974.


That's right. Since 1974, almost THIRTY YEARS AGO, average wages for men in center of earnings life are DOWN, quite a bit.

And yet the stock market is at all time highs? And we are supposed to be happy?

Stop drinking the Republican-DINO propaganda moonshine.

Is that fact true for?

a) Europe (certainly not)
b) Russia (no)
c) Australia (no)
d) China (hell no)
e) Canada (probably not)

US has exported out high-wage jobs and is importing poverty. All to make our CEOs and hypermoney class the most wasteful and inefficient and richest in the world.

And then they have the chutzpah to accuse the rest of US for "class warfare"?

This is fucking Dunkirk for the middle class.

Anonymous said...

Making less than dad did
Report reveals that American men in their 30s earn less than their fathers did, as family income growth decelerates.
By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
May 25 2007: 6:52 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- American men in their 30s are earning less than their father's generation did, challenging a long-held belief that each generation will be better off than the one that preceded it, according to a new study published Friday.

The report, the first in an ongoing 18-month study on economic mobility in the United States, also revealed that the income growth of the median American household is declining.

The study was produced by a handful of politically diverse think tanks including the Pew Charitable Trusts, the American Enterprise Institute, the Brookings Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the Urban Institute. It looked at income levels of American men in their 30s, which can be a good indicator of lifetime income.

Gen Xer's: Are you better off than your parents?
Relying on Census Bureau figures, the study's authors found that after adjusting for inflation, men in their 30s in 2004 had a median income of about $35,000 per year, for a 12 percent drop compared with $40,000 per year for men in the same age group in 1974.

That stood in stark contrast to men in their 30s in 1994, who earned 5 percent more than their fathers did.

Similarly, American families, which experienced a 32 percent increase in income levels between 1964 and 1994, saw household income growth slow to 9 percent between 1974 and 2004, according to the report.

"There is clearly some story here that [U.S.] productivity gains are not trickling down to the median family," said John Morton, a co-author of the study and the managing director of economic policy initiatives at the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Even as male incomes have declined and household income growth has slowed, the nation's productivity has remained robust. While the two once kept pace with each other, U.S. productivity has quickly outpaced income growth since the mid-1970s, according to the report.

The study's authors, who plan to examine relative mobility, or the ability of Americans to move up or or down in social strata, said their report shows the canonical belief in an American meritocracy may be unraveling.

"The expectation that each generation will do better than their parents has become a fundamental part of what we call 'The American Dream,'" said Morton. "But this new analysis suggests this bedrock belief may be shifting under our feet."

Anonymous said...

Mansions may face resale obstacles
By Jay MacDonald • Bankrate.com


Are McMansions McOver?

Opinions vary, even among the experts.

If recent trends are any indication, however, the bigger-is-better approach to residential real estate may already be giving way to a more reasoned levelheadedness, both in home buying and building.

No, don't expect a return to that less-is-more, small-is-beautiful aesthetic from the Age of Aquarius; there is absolutely nothing austere going on here. Rather, call it a redefinition or right-sizing of what we consider luxury living that has more to do with architectural scale, energy efficiency and creating livable space than with gross square footage.

Like some real estate equivalent of the SUV, McMansions have been the object of scorn and ridicule since they started elbowing their way onto the suburban landscape in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Loosely defined as a house between 5,000 and 10,000 square feet with soaring grandiose entryways and multicar garages, often jammed onto an undersized lot, McMansions quickly went from ostentatious status symbol to something even the Joneses didn't want to keep up with.

"I think a lot of people who could well afford a McMansion today would find it embarrassing on aesthetic, environmental and political grounds, rather like movie stars who could afford a Hummer but choose instead to drive a Prius," says architect James Gauer, author of "The New American Dream: Living Well in Small Homes."

Shifting winds
As a historic confluence of factors -- boomer inheritances, the post-2000 tech stock collapse, superlow interest rates, the mortgage lending explosion -- drove America on a cattle stampede to invest in real estate, more and larger forces -- including energy costs, higher interest rates, the mortgage lending implosion and demographic shifts -- have now slowed the market to a surly teenager's stroll.

The housing times, they are a' changin' -- again. If during the past couple of years you bought a much larger home than you needed, primarily for investment purposes, you might want to cover your eyes now.

"I firmly believe that when the housing market slows, you'll see a short-term drop in the demand for large homes. But in the longer run, it's going to be even more challenging to sell these because the average household size of the boomers is going to go down as the last kids leave," says Thomas Lawler, a housing consultant based in Vienna, Va. "Builders will respond by reducing the number of those homes they build, but you can't turn that on a dime."

Meaning the inventory of McMansions is likely to grow. And grow. And grow. Could we one day see a landscape with large white elephants lingering on the market?

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

A Must See graph.
The on coming train cometh.
http://www.belowthecrowd.com/photos/ackman.jpg

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Keep reading the news (like this blog, which has more truthfull content) and you'll see soon that this "recovery" is just another lie.

dcbubble.blogspot said...
WashExam headline says it all: "National, local housing market data mixed, but District shows recovery signs."

http://dcbubble.blogspot.com/2007/05/washexam-dc-real-estate-market.html

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

I have some advice for you -- SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN.

The longer you wait, the more houses are going to be dumped on the market, and the harder it will be for you to get close to your asking price.



Want2Bubblesit said...
I need some feedback. Here in Southern California, my neighbor just sold his house for about 10 under asking price. I am now thinking of cashing in and bubblesitting. Now I know some of you will say 'you missed your chance, the peak is long gone' but again, my neighbor just sold his!....would you guys try to sell the house so late in the game if you were me? Theres gotta be some more suckers out there.

Anonymous said...

From Herb Greenberg's Market Blog:

May 23, 2007
Builders Laugh at Paulson?

Recent comments by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson that the housing slump is largely contained apparently didn't get lost on builders. As the story goes, CSFB analyst Ivy Zelman told her company's sales force today that builders attending the Builder 100 Conference in San Diego laughed when the comments were mentioned as if Paulson didn't know what he was talking about. How did I hear? From a legitimate and well-regarded trader who heard it directly from his Credit Suisse broker after Zelman reportedly broadcast the story on the Credit Suisse Squawk Box. Zelman hasn't returned my call.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

I have to commend you in sending Fox that letter - more of us are now waking up to what's *really* going on here, and it's forums like these where the truth is steadly getting out to the masses.

Ron Paul makes too much sense, and that's why he's being censured.

Fox, CNN, MSN, ect... they are all not worth a hill of beans.

Anonymous said...
This debate is bullshit!

Here is the email I sent to FOX

You should give Ron Paul his money back. How dare you ignore him!

Your moderators should be ashamed for trying to attack and trap him.
He did even say that he believes 911 happened for revenge, he said the attackers said that and then the idiot Goler, twists what he said and then let Rudy attack him. The joke is on you and rudy though because Dr. Paul was right!

You cornered DR. Paul with questions that the MSM tries to call conspiracy theory, but you let all those other clowns fumble around with what Dr. Paul is really known for and what he kicked their butts with in LA, and that is strict constitutionality and fiscal responsibility.

You Suck Fox

Anonymous said...

" K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

I have some advice for you -- SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN."

Thanks for the tip K.W. One more..have you or anyone else on this blog heard of selling a home by auction? Not foreclosure govt auction but just an auction. A realt-whore came to my house and tried to pitch this method to sell my home in this crappy market. She said it creates a sense of urgency and people end up overbidding because they think they are getting a good deal. Basically they stick a giant sign in front of home saying 'for sale by auction', they advertise like crazy and they have 2 preview days. The day of the auction, only serious bidders that have deposited 1-15k can participate. The risky part is they would want the seller to start the bidding at around 40 below what other houses have sold for to entice bidders. What's to say O get only get 1 bidder that day? I would have to sell and would be shit out of luck. Any comments?

Anonymous said...

should i beleive that rising inventory will lower prices if i consider that the nasdaq and dow lost 60-90 % of its value in 2000-2003 and that the majority? of investors had their money there, and a lot less money to keep the houses that they had then and would? have tried to sell them, thus increasing inventorys, yet the sale prices skyrocketed...on the value of cheap borrowed money? not the house value???

Anonymous said...

Job Market's Strength May Have Been Overstated

As the nation's economic growth has slowed over the past year, the labor market has remained robust, and the jobless rate is hovering near a six-year low.

But some economists believe the true employment picture may be less rosy, amid new signs official data may have overstated job growth.

Those signs are particularly stark in the home-building industry, which has been hurt by the slump in the housing market. Housing starts in April fell 33% from their recent peak in January 2006.

Yet, the number of residential construction jobs has dropped by only about 3% over the same period.

http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB117996499341212776.html?mod=
home_whats_news_us

The establishment survey showed the economy adding 180,000 jobs in March, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.4 percent. Upward revisions of 30,000 to the prior two months data bring average job growth over the last three months to 152,000.

The job growth was heavily concentrated in the construction (56,000), retail trade (35,900), and education and health sectors (54,000), which together accounted for almost the entire 157,000 increase in private sector employment. The jump in construction employment was a bounce back from a reported loss of 61,000 jobs in February. The January employment numbers were inflated by unusually good weather; construction employment now stands 29,000 above its December level.

Over the last year, construction has managed to add 21,000 jobs as the growth in non-residential construction has more than offset the decline in residential construction. However, the real story is the fact that employment in residential construction is down by only 3.0 percent over the last year, even though construction is down by almost 20 percent. Either productivity in the sector is crashing or, more likely, the data are not reflecting real employment trends. There are many undocumented workers in this sector. It is possible that they did not show up on payrolls during the boom and therefore their lost jobs are not appearing in the data in the downturn.

http://www.cepr.net/
index.php?option=com_content&task
=view&id=1113&Itemid=185

Anonymous said...

also the wage statistics seem "doctored", not that that could be bad, if health "care" is the third highest cause of death, or maybe xenophobes might think about all our new doctors with the equivalent of third grade educations, compared to the U.S's system of educational dumbing down at huge expenses to property rights.

Anonymous said...

"Ron Paul makes too much sense, and that's why he's being censured.

Fox, CNN, MSN, ect... they are all not worth a hill of beans."

Bill Maher had Ron Paul on the last two of his HBO programs, including the last of the season. As a matter of fact, Ron had a huge reception from the audience and long ovation. Bill Maher said that Ron Paul is his new hero, and that no other guest had such a positive reception from his audience.

Go Ron!

Anonymous said...

Check out what they say on http://www.4chapter.com about the Bubble!

W.C. Varones said...

The brighter side of the housing bubble:

It encourages homeowners to find creative ways to express their frustration.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

The best advice I can give you is
make your decision based on your gut-level feeling, not by what other (mostly unqualified) people would tell you to do.

Perhaps someone on this forum more qualified can provide you some really solid advice - an approach you can take which is too your best interest.

Anonymous said...
" K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

I have some advice for you -- SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN."

Thanks for the tip K.W. One more..have you or anyone else on this blog heard of selling a home by auction? Not foreclosure govt auction but just an auction. A realt-whore came to my house and tried to pitch this method to sell my home in this crappy market. She said it creates a sense of urgency and people end up overbidding because they think they are getting a good deal. Basically they stick a giant sign in front of home saying 'for sale by auction', they advertise like crazy and they have 2 preview days. The day of the auction, only serious bidders that have deposited 1-15k can participate. The risky part is they would want the seller to start the bidding at around 40 below what other houses have sold for to entice bidders. What's to say O get only get 1 bidder that day? I would have to sell and would be shit out of luck. Any comments?

Bay Area "Bitter Renter" said...

So much blame levelled at the subprime market for this current housing fiasco, when in reality it was 'flipper fever' with all that entailed e.g. inflated appraisals.

But housing is just flat out unaffordable and no-one wants to pay those inflated prices. Do people honestly believe that their property values will go up and up with no end in sight? And that wages are keeping up? So reminiscent of the pyramid schemes many years ago, where the last ones in lost several thousand dollars.
My local newspaper - the San Jose Mercury -- doesn't report anything negative, or at least spins it in such a way that everything is somewhat rosy in the Bay Area. Interesting times we live in...........

Kevin said...

San Diego Union tribune, article on front page of home section, below the fold

http://tinyurl.com/3e4rf3

Foreclosure viewpoint: It'll get worse

By ROGER SHOWLEY
May 27, 2007


NELVIN C. CEPEDA / Union-Tribune
Rob Gertz, a graduating senior at UCSD, explored the default and foreclosure market in his urban studies and planning class.
Economists from Wall Street to the Federal Reserve are scratching their heads trying to parse the future of housing in light of worsening default and foreclosure rates.

But they might have saved themselves some trouble if they had consulted Robert Gertz, a 21-year-old senior at the University of California San Diego.


For his urban studies and planning thesis, he examined the trends in San Diego County, considered by many to be the bellwether of the nation's housing markets, and predicted doom.

Ted said...

And so it begins...

Man uses pigs to trash his own house after foreclosure.

Ted said...

There's also video of the "pig house"

http://www.kgw.com/video/video-index.html?nvid=147328

Based on comments during the video, it sounds like he put a full 20% down on the house in 2002.

Anonymous said...

Wow, what a productive computer! Without the government's computer to estimate and create jobs, the payroll data for April would actually have shown a loss of 229,000 jobs, not a gain of 88,000. [88,000 - 317,000 = 229,000 Jobs Lost]. Except for the magic job-creating CES Net Birth/Death Model computer, the payroll survey and the household survey would be pointing in the same direction.

Where is employment going? American factories have shed thousands and thousands of jobs, and new factories (or existing ones) are moving to Asia where labor is cheaper. If you thought this trend was over, pick up the newspaper tomorrow and read about all of the big corporate mergers and private equity firms buying public companies. Yes, this buyout activity pushes stock prices up at first, but don't be fooled. These private equity deals and mergers usually mean that the buyer has only two things in mind: 1) to cut competition and raise prices; and 2) to slash the number of employees, gut healthcare benefits, and rob the pension plans. Is it simply my imagination or are mass layoffs and worker buyouts on the rise? I firmly believe that the stock market is up only because of easy money, stock buy-backs, and the leveraging away of our country's future.

The job picture does not look bright. The average homeowner can no longer refinance their mortgage and take additional cash out. Moreover, falling employment and wages may partially explain why consumer credit spiked up in March as incomes have not kept up with inflation and the credit card is being used to buy food and basics. Sluggish retail sales indicate the consumer is finally tapped out, and that does not bode well for corporate growth and hiring plans.

I'll leave it up to you to decide. Do you really believe the job losses last month of 468,000 in the broadly-based household employment survey, or do you believe the payroll survey computer model that created 317,000 jobs? Do you believe the economy is strong and getting stronger, or do your believe that the housing bust is for real. The fate of the dollar, and your stock market portfolio, is hanging in the balance!

http://www.safehaven.com/
article-7629.htm

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

You couldn't have said it any better.

Although company restructuring can be good at times, it is done today primarily for the huge profits that are made by the few, at the expense of putting masses of people out into the unemployment lines.

What are the long-term effects of all this going to be on the next generations?

I think the answer to that is becoming clearer by the day.


Anonymous said...
Wow, what a productive computer! Without the government's computer to estimate and create jobs, the payroll data for April would actually have shown a loss of 229,000 jobs, not a gain of 88,000. [88,000 - 317,000 = 229,000 Jobs Lost]. Except for the magic job-creating CES Net Birth/Death Model computer, the payroll survey and the household survey would be pointing in the same direction.

Where is employment going? American factories have shed thousands and thousands of jobs, and new factories (or existing ones) are moving to Asia where labor is cheaper. If you thought this trend was over, pick up the newspaper tomorrow and read about all of the big corporate mergers and private equity firms buying public companies. Yes, this buyout activity pushes stock prices up at first, but don't be fooled. These private equity deals and mergers usually mean that the buyer has only two things in mind: 1) to cut competition and raise prices; and 2) to slash the number of employees, gut healthcare benefits, and rob the pension plans. Is it simply my imagination or are mass layoffs and worker buyouts on the rise? I firmly believe that the stock market is up only because of easy money, stock buy-backs, and the leveraging away of our country's future.

The job picture does not look bright. The average homeowner can no longer refinance their mortgage and take additional cash out. Moreover, falling employment and wages may partially explain why consumer credit spiked up in March as incomes have not kept up with inflation and the credit card is being used to buy food and basics. Sluggish retail sales indicate the consumer is finally tapped out, and that does not bode well for corporate growth and hiring plans.

I'll leave it up to you to decide. Do you really believe the job losses last month of 468,000 in the broadly-based household employment survey, or do you believe the payroll survey computer model that created 317,000 jobs? Do you believe the economy is strong and getting stronger, or do your believe that the housing bust is for real. The fate of the dollar, and your stock market portfolio, is hanging in the balance!

http://www.safehaven.com/
article-7629.htm

Anonymous said...

Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences?

http://boards.prudentbear.com/
bbs_read.asp?mid=515581&tid=
515581&fid=1&start=1&sr=1&sb
=1&snsa=A#M515581

Anonymous said...

As home foreclosures began soaring early this year, Nancy Burns of the Moorpark Redevelopment Agency was told to figure out how many homeowners in her city were in trouble.

The answer, she discovered, was 10.

Or 30.

Or maybe more than 100.

"I have no clue," Burns said.

She's far from being the only one who's bewildered. The federal government compiles reams of data on home buyers and owners, but it doesn't track how or why people lose their homes. Neither do most state or local governments.

A growing number of private outfits are stepping into this void. But the resulting data often are at odds, making it difficult to get a handle on the true dimensions of the problem.

The conflicting numbers are adding an acrimonious edge to the discussion. The dispute gets particularly heated over the figures from RealtyTrac, an Irvine firm that has become perhaps the most widely cited authority in the field.

RealtyTrac's numbers tend to top all other figures because the company counts every step in the foreclosure process — the notice of default, the auction, the house reverting to the lender — separately. One house might be tallied several times as a foreclosure.

This is highly misleading, the company's critics say. A Colorado housing official recently called RealtyTrac's numbers "ridiculous and irresponsible." The Mortgage Bankers Assn. chastised Congress for depending on the company's data. RealtyTrac's competitors are becoming increasingly vocal about what they see as its overstatements but are sometimes arguing among themselves as well.

"No one is measuring the truth," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. "This is a problem when formulating policy."

Zandi takes issue not only with RealtyTrac for numbers he says are too high but also with DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla, Calif.-based research company frequently cited in The Times, for numbers he says are too low. DataQuick and RealtyTrac draw their numbers directly from filings in county recorders' offices.

After four years of boom, the market in California last year definitely turned queasy. But RealtyTrac's numbers show a full-fledged crisis, with 142,429 foreclosure filings — one for every 86 households in the state, the company said in a February new release.

DataQuick reported less than a tenth of that total: 12,672 foreclosures.

"The RealtyTrac data is overstated, but no way there were only 13,000 foreclosures," Zandi said.

His own data, based on a random sample of 5% of the consumer credit files assembled by data collection firm Equifax Inc., show 56,747 first-mortgage loan defaults in California last year.

Zandi acknowledges that the actual number of foreclosures is probably a little less than this figure, because some defaulting owners manage to save themselves, but says he stands by it as a more accurate representation of reality in the state than anyone else's numbers.

John Karevoll, chief analyst for DataQuick, said Zandi, like RealtyTrac, was miscounting.

"You tell Mark Zandi we will go toe to toe with them, address by address, foreclosure by foreclosure. My numbers are right. I know they're right," Karevoll said.


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
business/local/
la-fi-foreclose28may28,
0,1856022.story?coll=
sfla-business-headlines

Anonymous said...

If John Karevoll want to go Toe to Toe on
his data shouldn't he check his own work first?

In first Quarter 2007, John Karevoll said Defaults
peaked in first quarter 1996 at 61,541.

http://www.dqnews.com/
RRFor0407.shtm

But in first Quarter 1996, John Karevoll said Defaults
for first quarter 1996 was at 44,686

http://www.dqnews.com/
AA1996FOR04.shtm

Anonymous said...

The real down turn is going to start soon, so don't be under any falling houses! Check out this link-

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/graphs/graph_trend.asp?web=brm

This will further drive down prices!

Anonymous said...

Strong data boosts chance of BOJ rate hike

The yen rallied from a three-month low against the dollar on Tuesday after upbeat data further stoked expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the coming months.

A drop in Japan's jobless rate to a nine-year low in April and consumer spending figures that beat market forecasts in the same month sent the two-year bond yield to a 10-year high and prompted investors to buy the yen.

Many market players expect the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points to a 12-year high of 0.75 percent as soon as August.

"BOJ rate hike expectations are intensifying," said Tomoko Fujii, senior economist and strategist at Bank of America. "The market is pricing in an earlier-than-expected rate rise."

Following Tuesday's strong data, market participants expected the BOJ to lift rates.

http://africa.reuters.com/business
/news/usnBAN922446.html

Anonymous said...

``This is what the BOJ has been waiting for,'' said Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist at Bank of America N.A. in Tokyo. ``We've been expecting a September rate hike, but the most recent data suggest a growing chance of an August move.''

Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a nine-year low in April and consumer spending increased for a fourth month, suggesting the economy is resilient enough to withstand higher interest rates.

The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent from 4 percent, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for the number to stay unchanged for a fifth month. Household spending rose 1.1 percent, the bureau said, exceeding the 0.2 percent expectation.

Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said more demand for workers should drive wages higher, spurring consumer spending. The yen rose and bonds fell on speculation wage growth will help fuel inflation, enabling the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate, the lowest among major economies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
aQTSGbbCj0DE&refer=home

Anonymous said...

Just saw a relatively nice one-story (2 BR?)brick Cape Cod in a quiet neighborhood near a park. $385,000. I'd guess pre-bubble it was less than half that, nice though it is. Sat on the market for over a month. Still no price relief around here (Riverdale, MD outside Washington DC).

foxwoodlief said...

Been out every weekend since Febuary looking for a bargain in Phoenix...guess what? NOT! Even the builders are offering no REAL incentives or value. Yes, I did look at a new home in the west valley they lowered $200,000 and offered 6% in closing costs but you know what? Not a bargain. Why? Because that same house in 2002 was $265,000. The special price? $575,000 and the home was another 20 minutes further out of the valley. I also doubt that anyone bought at those inflated $750,000 and up prices as the subdivision was under construction in 2005/2006 and they bought the land at least in 2004 to get it ready to build on so they are still making a killing with their DISCOUNTS.

Everything is still at elast 30% too high and some 50% too high. No one is blinking unless they have to and even foreclosures are not bargains. Homes are still selling. One of our friends is moving to Houston and sold thier house on the west side for full asking price in one week in Estrella mountain ranch. They were shocked as some of their neighbors have been for sell for months without any showings. I think they sold because they had a lot of upgrades and a pool and a private lot and were asking what their neighbors were with just basic features. Still, they made $200,000 since they bought in 2004.

The market is so schizophrenic I have given up trying to understand it after four years. My parent's live in Los Gatos and their house has risen in value another $75,000 and homes in their area are still selling within two weeks while other homes on the east side lanquish at half the price. Of course it is always about location now isn't it?

I wish I could be positive since I want prices to revert to the mean but I'm getting cynical after waiting for four years and after selling most of my homes in the spring of 2005 I still can't replace them for what I sold them for!

Anonymous said...

Finally someone comes forward to expose the FED and the NAR for the bunch of dunces or liars that they are.

Check it out...

http://www.realestateconsulting.com/usanalysis/usanalysis200705.html?ref=patrick.net

Anonymous said...

Midwest small city, if the newspaper is accurate:

House sells for 297K from one bank to another, next line -

House sells for 199K from second bank to married couple.

Tally - two sales, and effect on median price and average price is only part of what it should be.

Anonymous said...

Housing Bubble Humor! You all could use some laughs
HOUSE PRICE CRASH

Spitting Image puppets Madness sing about the housing prices crash in a spoof version of Our House

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t8YTvdYXws

Anonymous said...

Kieth:

Here's a great one about a DC family with 6 kids, two row houses and two vacation homes that are now crying because there is no money in the atm.

http://tinyurl.com/yslb5x

wild76er said...

Now picture the final courtroom scene of the movie, where Tom Cruise is questioning Jack Nicholson on the stand.


Only this time, it’s an underwriter questioning a loan officer.

SALES: "You want answers?"

UW: "I think we are entitled to them!"

SALES: "You want answers?"

UW: (YELLING): "I want the truth!"

SALES: (YELLING): "You can't handle the truth!!!"

SALES: (Continuing): Son, we live in a world that requires loans. And
the loans must be brought in by people with elite skills. People who thrive on cold-calling, rejection and false promises. Who's going to find it? You? You, Mr. Operations? We have a greater responsibility than you can
possibly fathom.

You scoff at sales divisions and you curse our lucrative incentives,
commissions and bonus plans. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what we know: that while the cost of business results are excessive, it drives in the loans.

And my very existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, drives REVENUE! You don't want to know the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at staff meetings......you want me on that sales
call.You NEED me on that sales call.

We use words like discount points, yield spread, fixed rates and
purchase agreements. We use these words as the backbone of a life
spent negotiating with brokers. You use them as a punch line!

I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to people who rise and sleep under the very blanket of revenue I provide and then question the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just say "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise I suggest you pick
up the phone and make a sales call. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.
....

UW: "Did you overstate the income?"

SALES: "I did the job I was hired to do."

UW: (YELLING): "Did you overstate the income?"

SALES: (YELLING): "You're Goddamn right I did!!!!”

Placer County, California housing market watcher said...

http://www.kcra.com/station/13408528/detail.html

Are we about to hit new lows? Our fearless HP-blog-owner predicted things were going to get ugly. The above link points to what may be an ex-owner squatting in his foreclosed home with electricity/gas cut off and city posting signs to vacate premises, while "someone" continues to tear down the "notice to vacate" sign and occupy the house, but not answer the door? Neighbors are freaked out enough to call local news station for help! Makes one wonder what else is going to happen as the housing market continues to head South?

Roseville, California - a suburb 17 miles NE of the capital, Sacramento. Prices were run up about 100% between 2001-2005. Now with 2007 Rents ($100/ft) and incomes ($50k/yr if you're lucky) don't support the current asking & selling prices. Lots of land to continue building on West of city as it continues to annex. The new home builder's lower prices will likely continue to put downward pressure on reseller's prices. Incentives apparently weren't working as well for builders as they would have liked, so now they are actually lowering prices... a little. I'll report back when prices return to planet Earth.

Anonymous said...

Can anyone recommend a realtwhore in the North Phoenix/Tatum Ranch area who is worthy of a commission? Brett Barry and Greg Swann are not options.

Anonymous said...

What's wrong with Northern Virgina? We are barely in Panic mode out here!

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Builder's profit margins will continue to decrease as selling prices go lower and lower.

They are really in a fix along with the rest of the housing supply chain.

Are we about to hit new lows? Our fearless HP-blog-owner predicted things were going to get ugly. The above link points to what may be an ex-owner squatting in his foreclosed home with electricity/gas cut off and city posting signs to vacate premises, while "someone" continues to tear down the "notice to vacate" sign and occupy the house, but not answer the door? Neighbors are freaked out enough to call local news station for help! Makes one wonder what else is going to happen as the housing market continues to head South?

Roseville, California - a suburb 17 miles NE of the capital, Sacramento. Prices were run up about 100% between 2001-2005. Now with 2007 Rents ($100/ft) and incomes ($50k/yr if you're lucky) don't support the current asking & selling prices. Lots of land to continue building on West of city as it continues to annex. The new home builder's lower prices will likely continue to put downward pressure on reseller's prices. Incentives apparently weren't working as well for builders as they would have liked, so now they are actually lowering prices... a little. I'll report back when prices return to planet Earth.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8VFwgtdQ9FM&refer=home

Anonymous said...

Japanese Sold Net Y445.5B Of Foreign Bonds Last Week.

Japanese investors turned net sellers of foreign bonds last week, reflecting a rise in U.S. Treasurys yields, Ministry of Finance data showed Thursday.

Domestic investors sold Y445.5 billion on a net basis in the week of May 20-26, after net purchasing Y195.1 billion the previous week, the MOF's weekly portfolio flows data showed.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasurys broke above 4.8% that week, near this year's high of 4.9%, amid decreased expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In tandem, the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 1.720% on May 25, the highest since Feb. 21 when the BOJ raised its key policy rate to 0.5%.

Japanese investors bought Y42.9 billion of foreign stocks, after net selling Y18.4 billion in the prior week.

Meanwhile, foreign investors bought a net Y64.1 billion of Japanese bonds, following the previous week's net buying of Y314.1 billion. They also bought a net Y261.3 billion of Japanese stocks, up from Y217.3 billion of net purchases.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/
forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId
=af47e3e2-249f-442a-8c20-
2d1457863840

Anonymous said...

Here's a great one about a DC family with 6 kids, two row houses and two vacation homes that are now crying because there is no money in the atm.

From the article comes this statement: "For now, though, they're planning to hunker down until the housing market picks up."

IOW -- they are assuming the housing market will go back to what it was doing the last five years, and if and when it does they will go back to their old wreckless spending habbits. Americans never learn.

Anonymous said...

Mortgage Fraud have risen from over 3,515 in FY 2000 to over 28,000 in FY 2006, representing estimated losses of about one billion dollars. It is important to note that this likely represents only the tip of the iceberg, as SARs are only required to be filed by federally-regulated institutions.

In order to increase resources in th fight, MBA has submitted written requests to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees advocating for $31.25 million over a five year period in dedicated funding for the FBI and the department of Justice to combat mortgage fraud.

Mortgage Asset Research Institute nation for mortgage fraud index

Top 10 for 2006 All Originations

Florida
California
Michigan
Georgia
Utah
New York
Illinois
Minnesota
Colorado
Nevada

Top 10 for 2006 by Subprime Originations

Florida
Utah
Michigan
Minnesota
Georgia
Arizona
Indiana
New York
Ohio
Colorado

Fraud Classification for 2006

Applications
Tax/Financial Statements
Verifications of Deposit
Appraisals/Valuations
Verifications of Employment
Escrow/Closing Documents
Credit Reports

Subprime Loans Early Payment Defaults

Jackson, MI
Enid, OK
Kankakee, IL
Oakland, CA
Detroit, MI
Jackson, MS
Fitchburg-Leominster, MA
Stockton-Lodi, CA
Brockton, MA
New Bedford, MA

http://www.mari-inc.com/pdfs/
mba/MBA9thCaseRpt.pdf

Anonymous said...

Subprime Fiasco Exposes Manipulation by Mortgage Brokerages

Making the Pitch

Afghani says sales pitches typically focused on what a borrower could do with all of that money rather than on fees buried in paperwork or annual interest rates as high as 10.5 percent at the time, at least 2 percentage points more than the rates that banks charge people with good credit.

Sold to Wall Street

However brokers snared customers, lenders in California typically sold the loans to big banks or Wall Street firms. Under U.S. law, investors who buy mortgages or securities backed by them are typically not susceptible to lawsuits alleging fraud on the part of brokers.

Such protection partly explains why the U.S. mortgage-backed- securities market has ballooned. The market more than tripled since 2000; $2.4 trillion of MBSs were issued last year, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York. Last year was the first time more than half of the securities issued were backed by subprime and other nonconforming loans, according to the trade group.

``The market is driven by volume and passing along the risks associated with it,'' says Paul Leonard, director of the California office of the Center for Responsible Lending, a Durham, North Carolina- based consumer advocacy group. ``With the appetite of the secondary market, neither brokers nor originators had much accountability.''

Down the Chain

Lenders push sales of subprime loans as far down the chain as possible to vast networks of brokers. While independent brokers account for about half of all mortgage originations, they handle as much as 70 percent of subprime originations, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

Lawsuits Mount

Even before the bottom fell out of the subprime market, NovaStar and other lenders were defending themselves against lawsuits that accused the companies of using independent brokers and branch salesmen to exploit borrowers with high-cost loans.

Blaming Brokers

Like many subprime lenders, NovaStar spread its tentacles by tapping into a broad base of mortgage brokers and so-called net branches. A net branch enables an independent broker to set up shop under NovaStar's or some other company's banner with little upfront investment, much less a state license, and quickly begin brokering loans to kick upstream to the parent.

NovaStar made great use of the technique: By the end of 2004, it had expanded its number of branches to 432 from four at the beginning of 2000.

Competitive Advantage

``The branches represent a competitive advantage for NovaStar as we seek greater market share,'' the company said in its 2003 annual report.

Several lawsuits filed against NovaStar paint a more sinister picture. They claim the company played fast and loose with state licensing requirements in an effort to make results look better than they might have without the aid of the branch loan sales.

Inflammatory Allegations

The same employee said that on other occasions, the company would temporarily deposit $5,000 in the bank account of a potential borrower to inflate his or her assets. NovaStar would either take the money back or increase the loan fees, according to the lawsuit filed by co-counsel Milberg Weiss & Bershad LLP of New York.

Regulatory Patchwork

In California, which accounts for about 40 percent of subprime borrowing in the U.S., no one even knows how many people are originating loans, according to an October 2006 report by the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. That's because while the state licenses individual mortgage brokers, anyone can work for a big lender under the umbrella of a single corporate license. The group estimated that a minimum of 600,000 people were peddling loans in the state last year.

``In other words, the corporation can hire a loan originator right off the street and have them originating loans that day without any education, licensing or individual accountability,'' the report said.

California Law

``That's the way the law is in California,'' says Mark Leyes, director of communications of the state's Department of Corporations. ``We license the entity. They can have people working for them who are not licensed by us.''

Such loose regulatory oversight, combined with California's frenzied real estate market, helped make the state a natural destination for the subprime business.

Internet Trolling

Secured Funding's success was fueled by sales leads generated by millions of pieces of direct mail and Internet trolling, Afghani and other former salesmen say. Typical of the direct mail was a credit card offer. When potential customers called to activate the card, they were instead hooked up with a Secured Funding account executive such as Afghani.

Afghani describes chaotic office scenes that recall ``Boiler Room,'' a 2000 movie about stock brokers at a Long Island wire house.

Lakers and Limos

As sales boomed in early 2006, limos would pull up at the office to take salesmen to Los Angeles Lakers basketball games, Pike recalls. The parking lot was so clogged with luxury cars that employees had to valet-park or board a shuttle bus to get to the office.

Watching Salesmen

Charlyn Cooper, a former Secured underwriter, says she kept an electric scooter in her trunk to travel as far as a mile from her car to the office. ``They all used to laugh at me,'' says Cooper, who was dismissed in October. ``They had a van that would come by and pick you up from your car, but the van was always full.''

Cooper's job was to rein in the salespeople and make sure paperwork was legitimate so Secured Funding could sell its loans upstream. She says Secured Funding unloaded most of the loans on HSBC Holdings Plc's HSBC Finance unit, which has been racked by the subprime blowup.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=
a8VFwgtdQ9FM

Anonymous said...

Mortgage investors dealing with the fallout of the subprime crisis are facing an old nemesis: rising Treasury yields.

As a result, the Treasury market faces increased selling pressure as mortgage investors, who typically use U.S. government bonds or interest rate derivatives to hedge against effects of changing mortgage rates, are instead selling Treasuries to counter the impact of higher rates on their mortgage investment.

The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds serves as the benchmark for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Last week, mortgage investors pared their Treasuries positions as the yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds seemed poised to hit 5 percent, a level not seen since last summer.

"There'll be pressure to sell more as yields head up," said Richard Gordon, fixed-income market strategist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. "This low volatility environment has left some of these players unhedged."

A sharp rise in Treasury yields hurts the returns on the $10 trillion worth of residential mortgage loans and securities outstanding because rising Treasury yields result in higher mortgage rates and make refinancing less attractive for homeowners.

http://today.reuters.com/news/
articlenews.aspx?type=reuters
Edge&storyID=2007-05-
30T213555Z_01_N30421693_
RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-BONDS-
MORTGAGES.xml&WTmodLoc=
NewsHome_R4_reutersEdge-1

Gurpreet said...

intersting

Anonymous said...

So what is the use of purchasing a home for your family when both the husband and wife have to work two jobs to keep it. You will never be able to see your kids.

Nation of mortgage slaves among Britain's young couples

Massive mortgages are turning a generation of young couples into wage slaves, it has been claimed.

A report warned that the spiralling price of housing means Britain is in danger of becoming the "grossly divided" society of have and have-nots not seen since Victorian times.

First-time buyers who manage to make it on to the property ladder and parents with young families are like "bonded labourers" tied to their jobs.

The bleak report by academics - called On The Treadmill - says "super-size" loans are pushing soaring numbers of parents to desert their children in order to work long hours.

Many are taking on second jobs to pay a mortgage which could be up to seven times' bigger than their salary.

The report, from the universities of Aberdeen and Loughborough, claims many young couples are being turned into "bonded labourers" by their mortgage.

"For these young homeowners, the burden of mortgage debt will place great stress on those who have families.

"Both debt-harassed parents are forced to work increasingly long hours to meet the payments.

"Little time will be left for family life and little disposable income with which to enjoy it."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/
live/articles/news/
news.html?in_article_id=
458487&in_page_id=1770

Iamfacingforeclosure is dead! said...

IamFacingForeclosure.com is over. It will never return.

Anonymous said...

Somewhat off topic, but I saw a site in Minyanville today called alexa.com. This site allows you to track web traffic for most web sites going back to 2002. You can see the page views, website rank by traffic, etc. I suggest you try it out with realtor.com. Anyone thinking the big turnaround in housing is right around the corner will be shocked by the total collapse in web traffic the site is experiencing. Try the 3 year tab and look at page views and web ranking. Total meltdown. I offer this tidbit as a little piece of info that may be useful.

Doktaire said...

Yes, it is true, Casey Serin has pulled down his blog, thus confirming he is an bona fide fool, it was his only monetizable asset. I get the feeling this has been motivated by his wife.

Anonymous said...

Can anyone recommend a realtwhore in the North Phoenix/Tatum Ranch area who is worthy of a commission?
_____
Wayne and Sam Cockerel.

Sam is the son, Wayne is the dad. Honest, responsive, nice guys. Wayne has 30+ in Phx area real estate and thought I was smart when I sold in 2005 and then rented.

These guys will actually WORK to earn the commission.

Anonymous said...

Here is a good chart on ARM resets to come.


http://www.belowthecrowd.com/photos/ackman.jpg?ref=patrick.net

burn baby burn said...

I think we just entered stagflation. GDP at .8%. Dell just announced more layoffs and the mergers continue. It reminds me of the story on the Titanic the band played on as the peoples feet got wet.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/2g6x82

i always find it interesting how the home builder's stocks always seem to move in tandum......hmmm....coincidence? i don't think so....

Anonymous said...

did i just read that halliburton is building detention camps in the U.S, and, something about them being an arabian company???, or has iran bought it lately, or iraqi oils??

Anonymous said...

"Greed and Fear" and "The path of less resistance" are the fundamental rules of economics.

Buying dysfunctional subprime companies are a risky proposition, but when private equity, hedge funds and investment banks are using yen carry trade to borrow money at a lower interest rate that money is most at risk due to currency fluctuation.

Unless these speculators can minimize their risk with an investment strategy that can bring in higher yields to counter the currency fluctuation risk, these speculators could get into a negative return on investment.

Understanding the risk involved should the reporters of following article below be making the statement - what are smart money doing or should they be making the statement - what are taking greater risk doing to the money of smart people?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/
06/01/business/01subprime.html?ex
=1181275200&en=647674675be11e0e&ei
=5040&partner=MOREOVERNEWS

In many parts of the country, there is a glut of unsold homes. Defaults and foreclosures are rising, putting further pressure on home prices and mortgage lending. Some housing industry officials worry that the new infusion of capital may refuel aggressive and risky lending to people with poor credit, known as subprime borrowers, delaying a much needed winnowing of the business.

Those dark clouds do not faze the new money in subprime. Among those making the biggest bets is Cerberus Capital Management, which first made its name investing in distressed debt.

The subprime mortgage business is in tatters: loan volume is plummeting, defaults are rising and some of the biggest lenders have cut back or shut down.

So what is the smart money — private equity, hedge funds and investment banks — doing?

They are swooping in and taking over those battered businesses, seeing opportunity amid the wreckage.

“There is a lot of money pent up,” said Steve Probst, national sales manager with Fairway Independent Mortgage, a lender based in Sun Prairie, Wis. “And a lot of people are betting that the market will snap back quickly.”

Anonymous said...

Do "Greed and Fear" and "The path of less resistance" mean any investment strategy is fair game as long as you could find a big enough fool to play.

Banks asked Hedge Funds to take a bet that during a period of say six months a certain pool of bad loans will default.

Then these Banks take a small portion of the Hedge Funds money to give to the people within that pool bad loans to cover their loans for the six months period so that pool of bad loans won't default.

Sounds like a win win situation for the Banks and Politicians, but too bad for the Hedge Funds who got played for a fool.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/
18968061/

Hedge funds are attacking bank decisions that help delinquent US mortgage borrowers remain in their homes in a move that pits some of the country's richest people against its least well-off.

The dispute centres on derivatives contracts that pay money to investors when bonds backed by subprime mortgage loans – extended to people with past credit problems – run into trouble. The $1,200bn (€890bn) US subprime mortgage bond market has been hit recently by rapidly growing defaults, and hedge funds have profited from the crisis by buying such derivatives.

Some hedge funds say they are concerned that banks that both sell the derivatives contracts and handle mortgage payments could be involved in a form of market manipulation.

The fundsfear that banks are making concessions on the underlying mortgages to avoid making good on derivatives contracts that pay off in cases of default.

The controversy pits hedge fund interests against those of stretched US mortgage borrowers and politicians who want to help them keep their homes, underscoring the political dilemmas created by the growth of the mortgage bond market

Anonymous said...

Banks wary of subprime mortgage market "head fake"

Newfound stability in the $600 billion market for subprime mortgage-backed securities doesn't have anyone jumping for joy.

Prices on mortgages of the riskiest borrowers have improved a little in recent weeks in a respite from the pummeling they took from investors in the four months through March.

The earlier slump in prices followed unexpectedly sharp increases in delinquencies which surprised lenders and investors who underestimated the impact of the cooling housing market.

But executives from the nation's biggest lenders and their Wall Street partners this week were unsure about the state of the market, even though prices on new loans with sounder underwritings have climbed, investors are showing greater interest, and the drama over a widely watched derivative index has subsided.

"Is this a head-fake? That's what worries me," Thomas Neary, an executive vice president for capital markets at Wells Fargo & Co.'s (WFC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) home mortgage unit said on a Mortgage Bankers Association panel. Capital markets units pool loans and sell them to Wall Street firms that package them into bonds.

Yield premiums on "BBB-" rated bonds, some of the riskiest segments of subprime securities, have narrowed about 250 basis points in the last two weeks to about 450 basis points over the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, according to Credit Suisse. Lower spreads mean investors are demanding less yield to compensate them for potential defaults.

The yield spread on the ABX-HE 06-2 "BBB-" index, that began a free-fall in January, was 1,042 basis points this week, down from 1,446 points in February, after widening from 215 points last fall.

http://today.reuters.com/news/
articlenews.aspx?type=
reutersEdge&storyID=
2007-05-25T224838Z_
01_N25476305_RTRUKOC_
0_US-USA-SUBPRIME-MARKETS
.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsHome_R4
_reutersEdge-5

Anonymous said...

The FDIC's data for the recent quarter could provide support for critics who maintain regulators did not act quickly enough.

In a sign of possible growing problems, the banking industry added $9.2 billion to its loan loss reserves in the recent quarter, up from $6.2 billion in last year's first quarter.

FDIC said that the banking industry's had largest year-over-year decline in quarterly profits since 2001's first quarter, when the U.S. economy was in a recession.

The FDIC cited the housing slump, unfavorable interest rate conditions, slower growth in the economy and higher levels of problem loans as the main reasons for the recent quarter's decline.

The industry's net interest margin fell to 3.32 percent in this year's first quarter from 3.46 percent in last year's first quarter. The measure is the difference between the average interest rate banks earn on loans and other assets and the average they pay for deposits and other liabilities.

Banking's ratio of non-current loans to total loans shot up to .83 of a percent on March 31, from .71 of a percent on March 31, 2006. Non-current loans are those 90 days or more delinquent, those no longer accruing interest and real estate owned.

http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/
eastbay/othercities/southflorida
/stories/2007/05/28/daily21.html?b
=1180324800^1470771

Anonymous said...

Cheap money and incredibly flexible loan programs offered by many lenders sparked overbuilding by lenders, a flip-and-run mindset for speculators and unrealistic expectations for first-time homebuyers blinded by the low payments of a short-term loan. While the equity gained by rising home prices can cover many ill-conceived loan mistakes, a flat or sinking market only compounds those lending problems.

Think about it. When a buyer can get 100 percent financing on an investment property with stated income and a lousy credit score, it becomes a road map for trouble, especially in a flat market.

Trying to sell a home in a neighborhood where nobody is buying can be an extremely trying time for a seller. Foreclosures are on the rise, fueled by subprime loans that never should have been made and overeager investors betting on dreams of continued double-digit appreciation. Sadly, we are now feeling the results of too much credit chasing poor or borderline borrowers.

Yet people who default on their homes still need a place to live, and many of them are well-meaning consumers who hold down decent jobs. While they have shown they are not able to pay the huge monthly payments that come with high-interest-rate loans, they are capable of paying a fair monthly housing expense.

“The residential rental market in places like Denver has been very strong because there have been so many foreclosures,” Dimercurio said. “Indianapolis also has been in a foreclosure mess, and everybody is starting to understand how deep the problems are in Detroit.

“But anybody who wants to buy a property in addition to their primary residence really needs to go back to basics. The value of a piece of real estate must be based on the net income it can produce. If it’s sustainable with a modest, yet realistic, down payment, then it becomes a viable candidate for investment.”

http://akron.com/20070531/
wsl42.asp

Anonymous said...

Rogue Hedge Funds

http://www.businessjive.com/
nss/darkside.html

Overstock.com chief executive Patrick Byrne will get his day in court after all, unless California’s top court stops him. Cue the Star Wars theme song.

On Wednesday, a California appeals court agreed with a lower court that Overstock’s libel suit against Gradient Analytics should go forward, rejecting the Phoenix research firm’s claims of free speech as a defense against Overstock’s charges that it helped hedge funds drive down the shares of the Salt Lake City Internet retailer by issuing faulty research reports.

http://www.forbes.com/business/
2007/05/30/overstock-gradient-
suit-markets-cx_lm_0530markets35.
html

Anonymous said...

BOJ is saying of allot words, but comes July is the BOJ willing to back up their words with action?

Damage from excessive moves in stock or other asset prices in one country can easily spread to other economies, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said.

``Asset prices, in particular stock prices, are closely correlated both globally and regionally,'' Fukui said at an East Asian monetary policy conference in Tokyo today, two hours before China's stock market slumped.

``Fukui's point is that asset bubbles in one nation can easily blow up other economies as global integration increases,''

Policy makers will need to minimize the side effects of East Asia's integration into the global economy, Fukui said.

``It will be a challenge to reap maximum benefits from deepening economic and financial integration while minimizing costs that could possibly arise,'' he said.

``Asset prices tend to overshoot economic fundamentals from time to time, causing excessive volatility, which could in turn negatively affect the developments in the real economy,'' Fukui said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601101&sid=
alH9UEuwkS0E&refer=japan

Anonymous said...

did i just read that halliburton is building detention camps in the U.S



yep, i wonder who those camps are for? who are they for really? i think they are for us......

Anonymous said...

The whole world is one big "head-fake"

Include here: our representative government, the business community, most religions, the educational establishment, most forms of progress, you name it.

The reason: while not limited to material gain, the reason can be summarized as greed and vanity.

Until these things change (NEVER IS MOST LIKELY), the world will be one big mess of never ending hustle with little in real, lasting, positive, egalitarian results.

Sorry to burst your bubble. But the bubble is bigger than all of us. It has it's own lifeforce in the symbiosis of us all. Find you own joy in life, work if you need money, but don't think you are "making a difference" or "making things better". Most of us are part of the machine.

The only real solution to tune in/turn on/drop out, have an inner revolution if you will. This has always been the case. Turn off the news, stop voting, stop buying... like I said most likely, NEVER.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

did i just read that halliburton is building detention camps in the U.S
__________________
That rumor, or a version of it has been on the WWW since the 90's.
I hope you so not beleive it.
sheesh

Anonymous said...

Anyone ever wonder why the Japanese bond investors are pulling out of the US treasury and Mortgage Back Security market?

Ever wonder why the Subprime Loan Implosion suddenly corrected itself.

Now you know why.

Its one big SCAM after another.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/
2007/06/01/4904/hedge-funds-have
-a-rethink-on-us-subprime/

The finger pointing continues in the fallout from US subprime. Now hedge funds are attacking bank decisions that help delinquent US mortgage borrowers remain in their homes, reports the FT on Friday.

A group of more than 25 funds has asked the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the derivatives industry body, to act on their concerns that banks that both sell derivatives that pay out when loans hit problems, and handle mortgage payments could be making concessions to avoid making good on the contracts.

The concerns centre on loan modifications that are used to help borrowers keep up with payments. Analysts say that in these cases 40 per cent of the loans fall back into arrears within a year - but the changes do not trigger write-downs on the bonds, which would in turn lead to payment to purchases of credit-insurance derivatives.

Anonymous said...

SCAM with no risk for the Banks

Now the banks are rubbing the
Subprime loan SCAM on Mortgage Back Security investors faces and telling the MBS Investors that the Subprime loan Implosion was a dud so here is another chance for MBS Investors to buy back the Subprime Loans that the MBS Investor sold in Feberaury.

Anyone want to take a guess why the Average Age of new MBS securities is for three months?

It probably has nothing to do with the period of a default derivatives contracts that other Hedge Funds are buying.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps
/news?pid=20601009&sid=
a1LyleeQ7qgU&refer=bond

HSBC Holdings Plc plans to sell bonds backed by some of the last subprime mortgages made by bankrupt New Century Financial Corp., once its biggest rival in the business.

The $1 billion of home loans made by Irvine, California- based New Century that HSBC plans to package and sell as securities on June 5 have an average age of about three months

Anonymous said...

Thank You Bank of Japan for the last two liquidity cycles.

BOJ do you remember the Tech Bubble and the Subprime Bubble, no can't recall.

Well speculators are currently saying thank you BOJ for the next liquidity cycle in the Stock Market

http://online.barrons.com/
google_login.html?url=
http%3A%2F%2Fonline.barrons.com
%2Farticle%2FSB118013691099915277
.html%3Fmod%3Dgooglenews_barrons

From Subprime to Ridiculous in
Bank Loans

THE GREAT, GLOBAL BULL MARKET in stocks rests heavily on the booming credit markets. But there are increasing worries about the soundness of that foundation.

Never has credit been made available on such advantageous terms to private borrowers, who are using it to pay for mammoth private-equity transactions, leveraged buyouts, mergers and acquisitions, or merely to repurchase shares.

Perhaps with one exception: The private sector has been showered with credit in such profusion and without discrimination among borrowers once before -- in subprime mortgages. We're just now seeing the downside of the boom-and-bust cycle from these previously unimagined excesses.

Anonymous said...

It seems Axel Weber stands out as the only true independent member of the European Central Bank.

Reading in between the lines this message is about the default derivatives contracts SCAM that is taking place currently in the US and it is addressed to members of the G7

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601085&sid=
a5bFZLDyqOVA

ECB's Weber Says Hedge Funds Should Accept More Regulations

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said hedge funds should accept increased oversight by regulators to head off a potentially tougher crackdown in the event of a collapse that disrupts financial markets.

``In such a situation it would be not possible, and very difficult, for the industry to develop its own, consistent solutions,'' Weber told a conference today in Athens. ``There's a danger that the quality of solutions that would have to be developed under extreme time pressure could fall very much short of expectations of all parties involved.''

Anonymous said...

US ask world who should be the next IMF cheif, certainly not someone that Henry Paulson can not control or is for Hedge Funds regulations

http://news.yahoo.com/s/
bloomberg/20070519/
pl_bloomberg/
avajpcezorq_1

The U.S. is asking Canada and other countries about who should replace Paul Wolfowitz as the World Bank's president, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said.

The G-8 statement today said the global hedge-fund industry ``should review and enhance existing sound-practices benchmarks'' for hedge-fund managers to limit risks of ``systemic'' crises in financial markets. The ministers also ``reaffirmed the need to be vigilant'' on hedge funds.

Ex-managing director and chairman of the company's International Advisors department for Goldman Sachs, Robert Bruce Zoellick is nominated for World Bank chief.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Robert_Zoellick

Dan Bartlett, a member of President George W. Bush's Texas inner circle suddenly resigned to go find a job in the private sector.

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/
international/ticker/detail/
Top_Bush_aide_Dan_
Bartlett_resigns.html?
siteSect=143&sid=
7884289&cKey=
1180716166000

If you were an ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs like Treasury Henry Paulson who would you pick to replace Paul Wolfowitz?

Finance Minister Koji Omi backs Robert Zoellick.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/
070601/kyodo/d8pfn18o1.html

Denver Dood said...

Fix This House TV show fraud....

http://tinyurl.com/2qxnql

LMAO!

cobra2411 said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070601/ap_en_tv/house_flipper_investigation

Did you catch this one on yahoo?

'Flip This House' star accused of fraud

ATLANTA - On an episode of A&E's popular reality series "Flip This House," Atlanta businessman Sam Leccima sits in front of a run-down house and calls buying and selling real estate his passion.

Now authorities and legal filings claim that Leccima's true passion was a series of scams that included faking the home renovations shown on the cable TV show and claiming to have sold houses he never owned.

-=snip=-

Who here is surprised at this?

Not me...

Mioshi said...

There is no housing bubble!! The truth is home sales have slowed down because everyone is nervous because of the many foreclosures that are going on all around them.. It is not only Adjustable Rate Mortgages that balloon after a few years which have people going into foreclosure but the massive amount of layoffs that have been going on around the country.. My dad has been the victim of a layoff which cost over 30,000 people their jobs just a few months ago. And the company he is with now is getting to layoff 40,000 people next week! It is not a housing bubble that has burst it is the fact that the majority of people can no longer afford homes like they used to.. Interest rates are still at a record low and if you are buying this is actually a great time to buy.. If there is anyone reading this is who is interested in purchasing a home and likewise if there is anyone reading this who may be going into foreclosure visit my website http://www.metrohomerealty.com and send me an email or give a call, I am in Minnesota but even if you do not live in my state I can refer you to a real estate professional in your area who can help you..

Bubble Sitter in Sac said...

Renters at Risk! Here's one potential downside to bubblesitting--

http://www.kcra.com/news/13416428/detail.html

Beware bubblesitters: A renter's lease can be ended abruptly (30 days's notice in Calif) if the house that you're renting is foreclosed upon. To help mitigate this problem for us bubblesitters who rent, my suggestion would be to try to find out from Zillow and county tax assessor records if the house that you're planning on renting is at risk to default based on the date the owner purchased it. I would assume that any home purchased during the runup, let's say after 2001 or so but especially near the height of market in 2005, could possibly put a renter at risk of being evicted due to a foreclosure.

Anonymous said...

7% By the end of the year!!! Ouch!!!

Mortgage rate rise pressures housing recovery
Continued rate increases may discourage home buyers, pushing back recovery forecasts.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
May 31 2007: 12:44 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mortgage rates went up again this past week, putting more pressure on a weak housing market and further dimming prospects for a quick recovery.

Low rates helped create and sustain the last housing boom. And rates remained manageable over the past two years as the market fell, buoying prices and enabling the bubble to deflate gradually rather than with a sharp pop.

But now, rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, which have floated in a narrow range of 6.14 percent to 6.34 percent all year, have begun a steady rise. Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), expects them to top out near 7 percent by the end of the year.

Rising rates, among other factors, have caused the MBA and the National Association of Realtors to push back their forecasts for a home-price recovery. Both groups are now looking to early 2008, compared with a previous outlook for mid-2007.

On Thursday, Freddie Mac (Charts, Fortune 500), the government-sponsored buyer of mortgage loans, reported that the interest rate on the average 30-year fixed had moved up to 6.42 percent, the survey's highest level since August, 2006.

Investors seem to be betting against any quick housing market recovery
Mortgage rates are based on the yields of 10-year Treasury notes, which have also risen substantially this month, as strong global stock market returns have lured investors away from bonds, lowering their prices.

Robust economic growth outside of the housing market with healthy consumer and improving business spending has added to strong interest rate increases, according to a statement from Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.

When interest rates rise, they add to the size of a borrower's monthly mortgage payment. Rates had been at 6.16 percent as recently as May 3. The 0.26 percent increase since then represents a jump of $30 a month on a $200,000 loan.

Buyers look carefully at monthly payments to gauge a home's affordability. Higher monthly costs can limit the amount they can offer for a home.

And if rates do go as high as 7 percent, that could have a substantial impact on buying patterns, according to Keith Gumbinger of financial publisher HSH Associates, which tracks the mortgage industry.

"It would make it more likely that [buyers] would sit on the sidelines," he said. "That would put downward pressure on housing prices."

Fed: Risks to the economy lessen
Industry experts have been looking to the Federal Reserve to see where mortgage rates are headed. So far, however, the Fed appears to be sitting tight.

"The Fed is probably set for the next 12 months," said Michael Marriott, managing director of Credit Suisse, before a session to discuss the state of the mortgage lending industry at the MBA's National Secondary Market Conference & Expo in New York last week.

According to Marriott, however, the worse the housing market gets, the more likely the Fed will begin aggressively cutting rates.

DCView said...

Prices have been slow to crash here in DC/Northern Virginia also. People still believe that because the government is here and there are so many jobs the housing market is protected. Some of the asking prices are even up which is odd although some are down (but slowly people are pathetically knocking off $5,000 or $10,000 at a time). I am frustrated as my husband and I are both in our early 30’s and should be first time home buyers by now. I am not interested in a condo…we want kids and are beyond that sort of lifestyle now. A backyard with grass would be nice as we like cookouts. However, we aren’t willing to pay $3,000.00 for a mortgage/taxes/hoa fees etc. per month for a townhouse (and not even a luxury one at that as these run even higher). I am hoping that we aren’t forced to rent another 2 years but it is looking that we might have to.

I am also curious if the housing market and fed rates are at all tied to the current Bush administration. Will we see sudden price drops in Jan 09 when he finally leaves office? Is the administration keeping this thing going and leaving the mess for the next administration? Its looking that way.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/yuwlom


insider trading , stock market......insiders getting out......but cramer says it is going to 14000........hmmm......do the figures lie? nope.....

get out of the market now , if you can.....

Anonymous said...

haha...Is this mioshi for real? Must be a joke. Let me get this straight, there are no jobs but it's a great time to buy. Ask you father to buy a couple flips since it's a great time to buy. Also, while you are at it, ask your father and his laid-off friends how they feel about voting for Bush twice. Nice economy, huh?

Sorry to tell you Mioshi, but you are next. I heard Wal-Mart (China) and McDonalds are hiring. You can always contact the Bush and his Republican pals to ask for a job.

Guy Daley said...

Signs of the times!! Usually you see the new car with the house on an expensive house, but try this one.

http://grandrapids.craigslist.org/rfs/342591660.html

Opportunity knocks only once.
Purchase this one-of-a kind, very custom, 1830 sq ft - 3BR/2BA contemporary, builder's model home, far below market value (appraised at $213,000) and pick the color for your NEW Toyota Yaris (34 mpg city/39 mpg hwy). 1.25 acre, heavily treed, cul-de-sac, totally private lot w/way too many features to list. Only 25 minutes north of Grand Rapids. For more information and photos visit www.AppleGateHomes.com or call 616-299-5551.


WE have trolltards saying the economy is flourishing because they just read the headlines from the media shills. I think even they would have to say Michigan is excluded from the "boom". But what is the next state we have to exclude and after that? The "official" unemployment rate is one of the most laughable non-statistics that government has been able to conjure. Our government is DISEASED and its going to take its citizens down with it.

belchorama said...

Mioshi said:

"It is not a housing bubble that has burst it is the fact that the majority of people can no longer afford homes like they used to"

-----------------------------

Really. Employment hasn't tanked, wages haven't tanked, home prices have gone up around 100% over the last 5 years in many locales, so "the fact that the majority of people can no longer afford homes like they used to" doesn't indicate a bubble? The fact that sales have slowed to a crawl, foreclosures have gone through the roof, and prices have begun to fall nationally doesn't indicate that it's begun to burst? What precisely do you think is meant by "bubble" and "burst"? Maybe you should save your wisdom for the Bloodhound Blog, your capacity for reasoning would be appreciated there.

belchorama said...

How about a game of fill-in-the-blank?

You would have to be dumber than ______ to consider buying a house at market prices in ______ right now.

I'll go with "a box full of hair" and "Phoenix". Bet you can't ace me.

No wait. "Pat Buchanan", and "Boise".

Guy Daley said...

just got an email back from the guy selling his home near Grand Rapids MI, this is what he said, "I just returned from Big Sky, MT after being there 8 mos. It's way worse here than anyone can imagine. I've been advertising for 1 month and not one call. Unemployment is double or triple what they are saying."

Let thanks Bush, his associates and the media shills for pushing an extra 20 million illegals on us when we are in the midst of a recession.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Right on. :)

As the selling price of over-inflated and growing housing inventory continues to drop, would-be flippers will enter the game - only to find that prices will continue to drop.

Anonymous said...
haha...Is this mioshi for real? Must be a joke. Let me get this straight, there are no jobs but it's a great time to buy. Ask you father to buy a couple flips since it's a great time to buy. Also, while you are at it, ask your father and his laid-off friends how they feel about voting for Bush twice. Nice economy, huh?

Sorry to tell you Mioshi, but you are next. I heard Wal-Mart (China) and McDonalds are hiring. You can always contact the Bush and his Republican pals to ask for a job.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

I have one question for you?
Why do you feel you should be a first-time home owner?

It's that very thought that the realty business used to sucker couples into a mortgage they couldn't afford.

There is nothing to be ashamed of because you rent - hey - you're smarter then many, and you should be congratulating yourself.

We have entered a recessionary period, and as job growth declines (despite the forged statistics you may read or here people spew out), you'll be in a *far* better position then those paying growing mortgage fees on an ever-depreciating asset.

DCView said...
Prices have been slow to crash here in DC/Northern Virginia also. People still believe that because the government is here and there are so many jobs the housing market is protected. Some of the asking prices are even up which is odd although some are down (but slowly people are pathetically knocking off $5,000 or $10,000 at a time). I am frustrated as my husband and I are both in our early 30’s and should be first time home buyers by now. I am not interested in a condo…we want kids and are beyond that sort of lifestyle now. A backyard with grass would be nice as we like cookouts. However, we aren’t willing to pay $3,000.00 for a mortgage/taxes/hoa fees etc. per month for a townhouse (and not even a luxury one at that as these run even higher). I am hoping that we aren’t forced to rent another 2 years but it is looking that we might have to.

I am also curious if the housing market and fed rates are at all tied to the current Bush administration. Will we see sudden price drops in Jan 09 when he finally leaves office? Is the administration keeping this thing going and leaving the mess for the next administration? Its looking that way.

Anonymous said...

What are the odds? A day before the Democratic debate, law enforcement busts "a terrorism plot" to explode JFK's Airport fuel tanks. Sure Karl Rove, we believe it...NOT! As usual, the mastermind terrorists are a bunch on Muslims nobody's, from the "terrorism hot stop Guiana". The White House or Giuliani couldn't come up with anything less convincing than this pile of crap? Wow, Bush ratings are going to go up and Giuliani is going to save us all. And the sheeple believes it.

People, don't believe a word that comes out of DHS, White House, or MSM. If they really wanted to protect us from terrorism threats (another tool to take advantage of the sheeple), this administration wouldn't leave that Mexican border totally open for so many years or wouldn't be working so hard to give citizenship to 20 million strangers with obscure backgrounds that cannot be checked accurately.

First they framed those pizza delivery nobody's as the "terror cell" (wow, Tom Clancy will write a book about this "organized and dangerous cell of pizza delivery drivers!) who was going to invade the Army facility. Since nobody believed in that one either, the White House or Giuliani's dark groups are trying to come up with something more theatrical to frighten the sheeple to death, like exploding the JFK Airport, which experts already confirmed (and laughed about it) that it would be very unlikely that those tanks or the entire pipe network could explode on this manner.

By looking at these desperate attempts from the White House or other dark groups who want to elect Giuliani, makes us think of which extreme measures they are willing apply if by 2008 Ron Paul or any democrat is ahead on the polls. Are they going to create once again another 9-11? Very possible.

Don't believe in any of this.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Forclosdures will increase that much more rapidly now, adding more homes to the ever-increasing supply of homes on the market.

Not pretty, but inevitable considering how over-valued
everything was.

Anonymous said...
7% By the end of the year!!! Ouch!!!

Mortgage rate rise pressures housing recovery
Continued rate increases may discourage home buyers, pushing back recovery forecasts.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
May 31 2007: 12:44 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mortgage rates went up again this past week, putting more pressure on a weak housing market and further dimming prospects for a quick recovery.

Low rates helped create and sustain the last housing boom. And rates remained manageable over the past two years as the market fell, buoying prices and enabling the bubble to deflate gradually rather than with a sharp pop.

But now, rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, which have floated in a narrow range of 6.14 percent to 6.34 percent all year, have begun a steady rise. Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), expects them to top out near 7 percent by the end of the year.

Rising rates, among other factors, have caused the MBA and the National Association of Realtors to push back their forecasts for a home-price recovery. Both groups are now looking to early 2008, compared with a previous outlook for mid-2007.

On Thursday, Freddie Mac (Charts, Fortune 500), the government-sponsored buyer of mortgage loans, reported that the interest rate on the average 30-year fixed had moved up to 6.42 percent, the survey's highest level since August, 2006.

Investors seem to be betting against any quick housing market recovery
Mortgage rates are based on the yields of 10-year Treasury notes, which have also risen substantially this month, as strong global stock market returns have lured investors away from bonds, lowering their prices.

Robust economic growth outside of the housing market with healthy consumer and improving business spending has added to strong interest rate increases, according to a statement from Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.

When interest rates rise, they add to the size of a borrower's monthly mortgage payment. Rates had been at 6.16 percent as recently as May 3. The 0.26 percent increase since then represents a jump of $30 a month on a $200,000 loan.

Buyers look carefully at monthly payments to gauge a home's affordability. Higher monthly costs can limit the amount they can offer for a home.

And if rates do go as high as 7 percent, that could have a substantial impact on buying patterns, according to Keith Gumbinger of financial publisher HSH Associates, which tracks the mortgage industry.

"It would make it more likely that [buyers] would sit on the sidelines," he said. "That would put downward pressure on housing prices."

Fed: Risks to the economy lessen
Industry experts have been looking to the Federal Reserve to see where mortgage rates are headed. So far, however, the Fed appears to be sitting tight.

"The Fed is probably set for the next 12 months," said Michael Marriott, managing director of Credit Suisse, before a session to discuss the state of the mortgage lending industry at the MBA's National Secondary Market Conference & Expo in New York last week.

According to Marriott, however, the worse the housing market gets, the more likely the Fed will begin aggressively cutting rates.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Very good point.

Unlike a home debter, renters have the opportunity to move much more easily.

There is something else to consider here, many home debters depend on renters to pay a good chunk of their mortgage cost.

With renters moving out, home debters are going to be in an even bigger mess.

Bubble Sitter in Sac said...
Renters at Risk! Here's one potential downside to bubblesitting--

http://www.kcra.com/news/13416428/detail.html

Beware bubblesitters: A renter's lease can be ended abruptly (30 days's notice in Calif) if the house that you're renting is foreclosed upon. To help mitigate this problem for us bubblesitters who rent, my suggestion would be to try to find out from Zillow and county tax assessor records if the house that you're planning on renting is at risk to default based on the date the owner purchased it. I would assume that any home purchased during the runup, let's say after 2001 or so but especially near the height of market in 2005, could possibly put a renter at risk of being evicted due to a foreclosure.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Mioshi ...

You just defined what happens *after* a bubble bursts.

Even with jobs, most people cannot afford the houses they are in; the
problem is now even worse though because of the layoffs you have mentioned occuring across the country.

We're systematically being transformed into a 3rd-world country, where only the top 1%
can live comfortably.

That is a fact - no need to read
doctored stats from "experts" on how good everything is going - it's a huge lie.

Our governing elite do not care because this crisis won't hit their pocket books for quite sometime - and the middle-class will have to bear the brunt of
the problem with ever increasing taxation.

I can't imagine how hard it must be to be laid off now in these times.

In order to save this country
from completely sinking, so much needs to be set right...

Housing prices *must* drop rapidly.

Out-sourcing of jobs must be minimized, and elimited where possible.

Job security must increase for the majority.

Health-care and school tuition costs must decrease significantly.

...And the list goes on-and-on.

Sadly, our administration is doing a fantastic job of quickly sinking this country.

Mioshi said...
There is no housing bubble!! The truth is home sales have slowed down because everyone is nervous because of the many foreclosures that are going on all around them.. It is not only Adjustable Rate Mortgages that balloon after a few years which have people going into foreclosure but the massive amount of layoffs that have been going on around the country.. My dad has been the victim of a layoff which cost over 30,000 people their jobs just a few months ago. And the company he is with now is getting to layoff 40,000 people next week! It is not a housing bubble that has burst it is the fact that the majority of people can no longer afford homes like they used to.. Interest rates are still at a record low and if you are buying this is actually a great time to buy.. If there is anyone reading this is who is interested in purchasing a home and likewise if there is anyone reading this who may be going into foreclosure visit my website http://www.metrohomerealty.com and send me an email or give a call, I am in Minnesota but even if you do not live in my state I can refer you to a real estate professional in your area who can help you..

Anonymous said...

"I have one question for you?
Why do you feel you should be a first-time home owner?

It's that very thought that the realty business used to sucker couples into a mortgage they couldn't afford."

Good point. DeBeers has manipulated the sheeple into buying a diamond ring for engagement. Same marketing principle that ends up creating peer and family pressure to buy homes and diamonds, otherwise you are considered a loser. There are people who go into debt to have the white wedding + expensive diamond ring, just to get divorced a few years later. Sorry, hommie don't play that!

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

I think we're now seeing a re-definition of what it means to be a "loser".

Personally, I believe this country
is quickly becoming a lost cause, so if we're "winner" here, what's the real benefit?

Anonymous said...
"I have one question for you?
Why do you feel you should be a first-time home owner?

It's that very thought that the realty business used to sucker couples into a mortgage they couldn't afford."

Good point. DeBeers has manipulated the sheeple into buying a diamond ring for engagement. Same marketing principle that ends up creating peer and family pressure to buy homes and diamonds, otherwise you are considered a loser. There are people who go into debt to have the white wedding + expensive diamond ring, just to get divorced a few years later. Sorry, hommie don't play that!

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

We once had pride as a country in creating goods and services - creating something of worth, and long-lasting value.

Now, we believe in speculative thinking, making something out of nothing - with little or no effort.

It works for awhile with clever deceptive marketing - until people catch on - and then things come crashing down hard.

Many of those in the realty business - who are now laid off - have little skills for anything else, which can pay them a decent wage.

The key is decent sustainable wages, which are not happening in this country for the majority of US citizens who are dispraportionally paying the brunt of taxes.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Why buy now when it will be cheaper tommorrow?

Heck ... why buy at all ... it's such a mess, and will continue to be so for quite sometime.

Guy Daley said...
Signs of the times!! Usually you see the new car with the house on an expensive house, but try this one.

http://grandrapids.craigslist.org/rfs/342591660.html

Opportunity knocks only once.
Purchase this one-of-a kind, very custom, 1830 sq ft - 3BR/2BA contemporary, builder's model home, far below market value (appraised at $213,000) and pick the color for your NEW Toyota Yaris (34 mpg city/39 mpg hwy). 1.25 acre, heavily treed, cul-de-sac, totally private lot w/way too many features to list. Only 25 minutes north of Grand Rapids. For more information and photos visit www.AppleGateHomes.com or call 616-299-5551.

K.W, - Southern Ca. said...

These company mergers and break-ups - translating to massive unemployments for the masses - will continue to grow, as assets depreciate across our economy.

It'a a vicious cycle which ends when there's nothing left to gobble-up.

burn baby burn said...
I think we just entered stagflation. GDP at .8%. Dell just announced more layoffs and the mergers continue. It reminds me of the story on the Titanic the band played on as the peoples feet got wet.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

No job ... no money ... no website.

Doktaire said...
Yes, it is true, Casey Serin has pulled down his blog, thus confirming he is an bona fide fool, it was his only monetizable asset. I get the feeling this has been motivated by his wife.

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