April 21, 2007

Nah, home prices aren't in freefall. Nah, there's no housing crash underway. Pssst... someone tell that to Lennar!




Hat-tip to Housingdoom (again) for this one. One word folks: FIRESALE!

Man, wanna have some fun? Run around to new home communities and ask for 50% off the original price. At least you'll get a nice counter offer. But obviously don't buy unless you can rent the place out for positive cash flow. Do that math with the builder on that one too...

Oh, for extra credit fun, go knock on doors in these new home communities and let the neighbors know how far their homes have fallen in value since they bought. Let 'em know the builder is conducting a historic firesale that will destroy the comps for years to come.

You might want to bring protection.

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why are builders building more homes?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Why are builders building more homes?

April 21, 2007 1:31 PM
-----------

Because that is what they do. If they don't build homes what else can they do? They just have to accept a lower profit margin, trim costs to be competitive with all the re-sale inventory out there. The profit margins were huge so they have lots of cash to burn as a cushion during lean times. I hate to sound like a realtwhore but if you want a NEW home its a great time to buy!!

Anonymous said...

Keith,

I posted a comment on craigslist Rants and Raves regarding home prices in Las Vegas. Just quoting an article in a local business newsletter saying new home prices fell 10% between December and March.

Post was flagged in less than an hour. The REIC is out in full force trying to keep info away from people.

unomyname said...

Why do people buy plasma TV's? Why do professional sports players make so much money? Who is John Galt?

John M said...

OT (way, OT): David Lereah has just published a Random House Book! (hat tip edhopper at Ben's Bits). And thanks for the plug :-)

Anonymous said...

Dive, dive, dive!!!

Anonymous said...

Oh, for extra credit fun, go knock on doors in these new home communities and let the neighbors know how far their homes have fallen in value since they bought. Let 'em know the builder is conducting a historic firesale that will destroy the comps for years to come.

Only problem is someone else will do the same to you, two years in the future, when the prices have fallen even further!

Anonymous said...

Why are builders building more homes?

What would you have a homebuilder make: sandwiches? Making homes is what they do. ;)

David in JAX said...

Man, wanna have some fun? Run around to new home communities and ask for 50% off the original price. At least you'll get a nice counter offer.

It's not unheard of to get an existing inventory home for 50% off asking in Florida. A lot of the new communities have had over half of their homes for sale for over a year. Builders will do just about anything to sell a home right now. But, these new homes in new zero lot line communities will probably be worth even less in a few years.

Anonymous said...

you that a fire sale, discounts ONLY up to $172,000, ba hum bug!!! Try this one on for size:

Olympia Pre-Designed Homes

Ready to Go? We Can Put You Into a Home You'll Love Right Now!

Savings up to $275,000!


http://www.mintofla.com/oly_quick.html

Anonymous said...

Think those "incentives" are showing up in the "official" home sales prices?

Anonymous said...

Think those "incentives" are showing up in the "official" home sales prices?

No, and the practice of incentivizing as an alternative to changing prices is pissing off the lenders (and subjecting the builders to scrutiny by the regulators), as it's illegal.

Lost Cause said...

Why would I put any cash down on any of these places, when a builder can file for bankruptcy any day and I would probably never see my cash again?

zoiks said...

Many Americans will be beggin the HBs to stop building homes in the coming years. I wouldn't be surprised if some Congress Critter introduces a bill to put a moratorium on homebuilding while the glut is worked down.

Joe Builder said...

Builders have HUGE bonds with municipalities that they'll lose if they don't build the subdivision, plus all kinds of potential legal/lawsuit problems. It's cheaper for them to build and then get the bonds back even if the houses never sell.

winner said...

I just won a bidding war for a condo in San Fran. HAHA You bitter renters will be priced out forever

stuck in So Pa said...

"What would you have a homebuilder make: sandwiches? Making homes is what they do. ;)"

Great comeback! LMAO! The only development in my neck of the woods is going gung-ho. It only took the developers about 20 years to get to this point, so they can hardly stop now. These are very large, expensive homes (for this area), quality construction, attractive area, all the bells, whistles, and incentives. It looks however that they are either rented out, for rent, or sitting empty. Drive thru after the construction workers leave and it looks like a ghost town, even though EVERYTHING has a sold sign out front.

Builders gotta build; you can't stop the Queen Mary on a dime!

Oh yea, and if you are going to knock on doors in America and laughingly tell people that their comps have tanked, BETTER WEAR BODY ARMOR!

sweet potatoe said...

Why aren’t home prices coming down yet?
I don’t mean the 3 - 7% ya'll talking about here.
Were is the Lennar $99K special?
with no down payments or interest till 2020, like furniture or cars etc.

Do any of you know what it really cost Lennar or Toll bros. to build a house including the land?

I mean if say Toll bros. was to begin giving away $500K houses for cost
How much would that be? $100K? $200K?

Anonymous said...

Clearly I'm your best choice for a mortgage loan since I'm hot. Come on in and fill out the papers. You can even excuse yourself to use the bathroom after we chat for a while.

http://www.housing-boom.com/2007/03/mortgage-broker-hottie.html

Anonymous said...

Looks like nobody pays any attention to your bullshit HP. Keep renting losers.



By David Streitfeld
Los Angeles Times

Americans are worried about the economy and believe a recession is looming, but their faith in real estate remains fierce, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

Nearly a third of those polled predicted values in their neighborhood would increase in the next six months. Only 16 percent anticipated a decrease. The rest said values would hold steady.

Anonymous said...

Carson City, NV 2007 sales

January - 31 sales; median $274,000

February - 32 sales; median $272,000

March - 28 sales; median $274,500

You were saying something about a crash....

Anonymous said...

has anyone confirmed if the "was" price was ever an actual sales price?

Joe Logic said...

Looks like nobody pays any attention to your bullshit HP. Keep renting losers... (quoting)
"their faith in real estate remains fierce, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll."


You're coming at us quoting a sheeple LA times poll??? Who's the loser here? You realtrolls must be so used to the stench of your own bullshit that you can't smell it anymore.

bickerer said...

Looks like nobody pays any attention to your bullshit HP. Keep renting losers.

>...their faith in real estate remains fierce...



Denial, definitely denial.

I think someone put this more eloquently on a previous post, but imitation is flattery.

simisteve said...

Nearly a third of those polled predicted values in their neighborhood would increase in the next six months. Only 16 percent anticipated a decrease. The rest said values would hold steady.

When was this written? 06/06? Whats it matter anyway, they are all just sheeple/j6pk/hoodwinked/minorities.
Go away troll... Maybe you could chase down a CBS News van and give them your "expert opinion" and tell them to ignore the "Facts"...

Anonymous said...

Bragging about winning a bidding war on a "condo"? Too much.

Let me guess 1000 sq. feet for 700K?

Meanwhile foreclosure rates in CA are going through the roof...will triple the record 1996 rate based on March foreclosure rate.

But that won't affect you. Nothing will affect real estate prices where you live. It's different there.

Genesis said...

You can have all the faith you want.

Lots of people have faith in Santa Claus too. If he actually comes down my Chimney this Christmas eve, I'll eat my Wall Street Journal and post the video on YouTube.

foxwoodlief said...

Been awhile checking this site, nothing has changed. Been waiting for three years now for the melt down and still frustrated that they prices are not budging enough. Went out today to Las Sendas and no bargains there. They were offering $25,000 incentives...wow, not much on a 1500 sq ft house for $425,000! No upgrades and no yard! So where is the bargain, you'd have to spend more than $25,000 to make that cracker box even livable!

Lots of homes for sale in Metro Phoenix. Many have sold and at twice the price I'd even consider paying. We earn healthy incomes and there is no way I'd pay $300,000 for a small box let alone a 3,000 sq ft home with all the bells and whistles.

And my conservative friends are loosing their marbles and plunging in and buying!!!!! One of my friends just paid $825,000 for a small house in Pacific Grove and he is one of the most conservative friends I have. He lived 6 years in a small efficiency saving money after he sold his house in Phoenix and I thought he'd never again buy and then out of the blue buys this place thinking if he doesn't now he'll never be able to buy having watched prices go up and up and his rent cost as well (he paid $1600 a month for a garage apartment in Monterey).

I refuse to buy here in Phoenix when homes I wouldn't LIVE IN sell for more than my home in Austin that is three times the size and quality on a 1/2 acre lot. We had thought we'd sell since our jobs will keep us here for a few years and we dont' want to rent our home out but now we think we'd be nuts to sell it.

I do believe judgement day is coming and that eventually something has to give but when and how? I'm beginning to think they government plans on stagnation in prices for several years and inflate homeowners out of their debts rather than see prices fall and tax revenue with it.

With all the homes for sale here you'd think people would yield but NOT. One guy at the hospital I work with has two jobs. I asked why and he said he bought a house as an investment two years ago and tried to sell it for a year and it didn't sell so he rents it out at a loss and works two jobs to make up the difference because "I won't give it away."

THe stand off continues.

Anonymous said...

Prices are simply not going to go down in any market where income growth is strong, or where demand to live there is high, or where land constraints are there, or some mix of these factors. Thats why prices are either stable or still going up in NYC, SF, LA. The weakest markets are and will be places where these factors are lacking, such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida. But the carnage has been the greatest so far in Detroit - where there was no bubble at all, and other parts of industrial midwest. In Detroit, in inflation adjusted terms, prices are down about 50% from 5 years ago. Why are they building in Houston? Center of the USA energy industry - good place to make a lot of money right now. People are going to lose their shirts in Florida. People in the Bay area will still make money on housing, even though prices are roughly triple or more compared to non-waterfront Florida property. Why? Google et al v. golf course maintenance workers, hotel maids, and nursing homes bedpan aides.

Anonymous said...

I bet everyine here believes that the dollar is going to continue to fall. Probably a bunch of gold bugs.

If the dollar is going to fall, why would I not want to own hard assets, such as a house, and owe lots of money on it, paid back in depreciating dollars? If we have inflation, as a declining dollar would indicate, now is a great time to buy a house.

We just have a temporary inventory glut. It will be gone in a year or two. The mother of all buying opportunities for housing in many cities should be the end of 2007 / beginning of 2008.

As an aside, I own a condo that I rent out with no mortgage. I tried to get a HELOC using one of those online referral services. Was contacted by citibank, countrywide, and a regional mortgage lender. I need to do stated because I dont file income tax returns, but my credit score is high 700s. Countrywide and the regional would not do the deal. Only citi would. The guy from countrywide said that they would have done this deal 3 months ago.

Anonymous said...

Ha! You're kidding, right?

Because in a prior L.A. Times poll, the people they surveyed thought it was reasonable for their homes to continue double-digit appreciation for the next 10 years! Apparently they've never taken a course in economics to understand how impossible THAT would be.

BTW, I found the article you pulled that line from. Love how you quoted only the part you liked. ;) Here's the stuff you left out.

Americans are worried about the economy and believe that a recession is looming, but their faith in real estate remains fierce, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

Nearly a third of those polled predicted home values in their neighborhood would increase in the next six months. Only 16% anticipated a decrease. The rest said values would hold steady.

Call it foolish faith or bold optimism, the forecast is at odds with the downward trend of home prices.

The National Assn. of Realtors recently reported that prices fell 2.7% in the last three months of 2006. Many economists expect real estate to have a rough ride this year, partly because of rising mortgage loan defaults.


God, even the super-duper cheerleaders (the NAR) are admitting the jig is up, and people are so drunk off the kool-aid they can't accept they've been duped...

Anonymous said...

What does a survey on house price expectations show other than that house price appreciation is taken as a given. That has been a central point of this board.

I remember there was a survey taken before the nasdaq plunge which said people expect their stocks to go up 25% a year for the next 10 years, on average. Didn't work out that way. But if everyone was bullish, how could stocks have fallen so far?

Anonymous said...

"Looks like nobody pays any attention to your bullshit HP. Keep renting losers.



By David Streitfeld
Los Angeles Times

Americans are worried about the economy and believe a recession is looming, but their faith in real estate remains fierce, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

Nearly a third of those polled predicted values in their neighborhood would increase in the next six months. Only 16 percent anticipated a decrease. The rest said values would hold steady."

Doesn't mean shit, butt breath. If you had an I.Q. above 85 you'd know that peoples perceptions on economic issues don't reflect reality.

Go back to flipping burgers now, loser.

Anonymous said...

California home prices to weaken further: Goldman
Countrywide could be hurt by exposure to Golden State, bank says
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:21 PM ET Apr 20, 2007


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Investment bank Goldman Sachs is increasingly concerned about the health of California's real estate market and reckons mortgage giant Countrywide Financial could be harder hit than other lenders because of its big exposure to the state.
Countrywide shares slipped 2.5% to $37.28 on Friday, leaving them down more than 11% so far this year.
Mortgage delinquencies jumped 46% in California last year, vs. a 5% increase nationally, Goldman said in a note to clients late Thursday.
Delinquencies on prime and subprime adjustable-rate mortgages in California soared by 78% and 60% respectively, vs. 33% and 24% across the U.S., the bank added, citing recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Median California home prices are still creeping up, and the state's strong employment trends should support the real estate market. But Goldman is worried that surging prices in the state in recent years weren't driven by traditional factors such as strong employment and income growth. Instead, the bank reckons an increase in ARM mortgages offered to borrowers who were already stretching to buy high-priced homes fueled the boom.
Now that lenders are cutting back some of these types of loans and regulators are beginning to crack down, California home prices could begin falling later this year, especially in high-price cities and towns, Goldman said.
"Many metros in California have home prices that are not justified by the underlying fundamentals," Goldman analysts James Fotheringham, Daniel Zimmerman and Monica Gabel, wrote in their note to investors. "Instead house price trends have been driven by the availability of subprime and non-traditional credit."
Originations of subprime mortgages, which are offered to poorer borrowers with blemished credit records, could drop 30% to 50% in 2007 and this contraction in the availability of credit will hit California's real estate market harder than elsewhere, the analysts said.
Ten of the top 12 metropolitan areas for subprime mortgages last year were in California, with Stockton topping the list. More than 40% of home loans in that town, nestled in the state's central valley east of San Francisco, were subprime in 2006, the analysts noted.
With fewer subprime loans available and more delinquencies likely, California home prices will probably weaken further in 2007, the analysts said.
That's not good news for Countrywide (CFC : Countrywide Financial Corp
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4:01pm 04/20/2007

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CFC37.36, -0.86, -2.3%) . Almost half of the company's $71.8 billion mortgage portfolio and more than a quarter of its home loan servicing business is from California, the Goldman analysts noted.
Countrywide has also offered a lot of option ARMs. These types of mortgages let borrowers pay less than the interest they owe on the loan each month, for a certain period of time. If borrowers chose this option, the size of their loan grows and when they finally have to start paying off the principal, the monthly payments can increase a lot.
Mortgages offered to prime borrowers (people with high credit scores and less debt) haven't experienced large increases in delinquencies. But option ARMs are one of the few types of "prime" home loans that have begun to deteriorate, Goldman said.
About 46% of the principal from Countrywide's mortgage portfolio is from option ARMs, and many of these loans were probably originated in California, Goldman noted, adding that this is a "risky combination."
Countrywide will likely have to set aside more money to cover loan losses and that will cut into profits, the analysts said. They cut their earnings forecasts for the lender by 3% in 2007 and 2008 and by 4% in 2009.
The analysts also reduced their price target to $32 from $33 and reiterated their sell recommendation.
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco

Anonymous said...

Woo Hoo!

I just paid 1.6 million for a 900 sqft house built in 1932 (A Classic) in beautiful downtown Culver City.

Since the housing prices have gone up most of the gangs have even left.

Haha! See you later you bitter, loser renters! I'm movin' on up!

Anonymous said...

For the Carson City isn't crashing troll:

In Business Las Vegas reports from Nevada. “The price of new homes has tumbled nearly 10 percent this year, the inventory of existing homes has reached an all-time high and bank repossessions accounted for a greater percentage of existing home sales in Las Vegas, according to the March housing statistics. The median price of new homes sold in March was $308,471, down nearly 10 percent from $341,990 in December.”

Anonymous said...

I guess Suzanne didn't research this one

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

For the Carson City isn't crashing troll:

In Business Las Vegas reports from Nevada. “The price of new homes has tumbled nearly 10 percent this year, the inventory of existing homes has reached an all-time high and bank repossessions accounted for a greater percentage of existing home sales in Las Vegas, according to the March housing statistics. The median price of new homes sold in March was $308,471, down nearly 10 percent from $341,990 in December.”


Uhm you do realize Carson City and Las Vegas are about 450 miles apart right dipshit?

Anonymous said...

Jobs are plentiful - so what if you make 9 dollars a hour, losers, buy the damn house, this is a ownership society after all.

Anonymous said...

$9 an hour is about right for the HP crowd and renters in general. No wonder you're all so bitter these days, I'd be bitter too if I made that kind of money.

Anonymous said...

interesting article in FinancialSense.com this week on Sydneys housing prices, in university section, and the economic realms

Anonymous said...

The dollar is falling and will continue to fall, you moronic realtroll. What would stop it from falling? Is it our budget deficit? How about our trade deficit? Maybe because of China dumping their dollar reserves. The world has figured out that there are many other more stable currencies and commodities they could hold that are not falling in value like the dollar. If you have such faith in the dollar, you should go on the FOREX and make a big bet on the US dollar - that's if you have anything left after paying the minimum on the teaser rate option ARM for your Bob Troll McMansion

Anonymous said...

"Uhm you do realize Carson City and Las Vegas are about 450 miles apart right dipshit? "

Another angry racist flipper.

Anonymous said...

The HOA in the housing development that I rent just sent out fliers last week informing the homeowners that they cannot keep up their For Sale signs up for too long. Right now, there are about 10 homes for sale and a few for rent in this development of about 150 homes. Over the winter a few other homes sold, but the newly listed ones, nothing moving thus far-not even a single Contract Pending sign in the last month.