April 12, 2007

FLASH: NAR finally admits housing prices to fall. Related story: Hell freezes over

The Corrupt David Lereah and NAR were confirmed today as liars for all to see. And HP and the bubble blogs are confirmed today (by the NAR) as beacons of truth.

God, I have no idea how TCDL keeps his job. And I have no idea why anyone in the MSM would give that man or the NAR any credence ever again. Nice to see Motley Fool and DavidLereahWatch both hit TCDL good today too... At least someone's awake.

Liars I say. Bald face, corrupt, discredited liars.

Realtors group: Median home prices will decline for first time in 4 decades

WASHINGTON -- The National Association of Realtors on Wednesday said it expects the national median price for existing homes to drop this year for the first time since the trade group began keeping records in the late 1960s.

The group also lowered its 2007 sales forecast for new and existing homes. Tighter lending standards and the continued fallout from the subprime mortgage market are to blame, NAR spokesman Walter Molony said in an interview.


anonymous wimp said...

Yes, but as has been related on other blogs....the NAR "corrected" downward their sales for 2006, so that the Year over Year drop into early 2007 wouldn't seem so steep.
Time will get them. You can fudge 2%. Not so easy 40%.

Heh heh ;)

Hugh Jorgan said...

Watch the weasels back-step so they don't end up getting sued. Dia-lereah is just as bad as the phonies that hyped the dot-coms. We'll all see him testifying before congress at some stage.

keith said...

here's hp'er seth jayson at motley fool today:

House Price Drop? That's Unpossible!
By Seth Jayson
April 12, 2007
You just know the housing situation has gotten bad if the six-percenters at the National Association of Realtors finally feel the need to reveal the awful truth: Prices are going to fall. The latest verbiage from the world's most vocal housing-bubble cheerleader, NAR economist David Lereah, actually predicts that home prices will drop by 0.7 % in 2007.

Of course, you wouldn't know that to read the headline, which, as usual, paints the fantasy that everything is always good for housing. In other words, it's exactly what you'd expect from a guy who's been shilling housing not only in press releases for his trade group, but in misguided books like the wonderfully timed (from 2005) Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?, the failed broadside against the skeptics Why the Housing Boom Will Not Bust (from 2006), and the still later "oops-I-better-tweak-my-lousy-thesis" response, All Real Estate is Local. (By the way, this blog post tells a tale of Lereah's real estate investment prowess these days.)

Even the NAR's mealy-mouthed admission on falling prices isn't particularly gutsy or insightful. Prices have been dropping for a while, even though the official accounting techniques for home sales don't net out the ludicrous subsidies that sellers have been throwing in for months.

The briefest look at results from D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) would have told you where housing was headed. And the credit crunch -- real and feared -- that's whaling on lenders like Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), IndyMac (NYSE: NDE), Impac (NYSE: IMH), Fremont General (NYSE: FMT), and others is both long overdue and well-deserved.

So, while you're giggling at Lereah and the NAR, keep your eye on the industry response to the mess and the media wake-up call. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the cheerleaders at the Mortgage Bankers Association are crying foul and spending millions to fight back against a "torrent of unfair press and counterproductive policy responses ... "

Can't argue with them on the dumb policy. Bleeding-heart lawmakers are already signing up to reinflate the bubble through various means of flouting the markets' impending return to equilibrium. But the MBA is way off base to cry about the press.

Fools, what bubbles up must eventually come down. It would just be nice if Lereah, the mortgage bankers, and the rest of the crowd would recognize the monster they've made and make real amends. But don't bet on it. Their paychecks depend on the myth of housing as an investment, rather than a sound living choice if purchased at the right price.


Anonymous said...

CYA CYA CYA.These dix know what their doing.I suggest HPers look into fleecing stup id sheep too.Then rub it in.Pouring salt into the wounds of Americans is the only way to wake them.The next thread on the Bailout is the Governments attempt to putting the sheep to sleep,lest they get in touch with their inner piranha.

Anonymous said...

Message to David Lee RAY

G_ F_CK Y_ _RS_LF.


Anonymous said...

"Dia-lereah is just as bad as the phonies that hyped the dot-coms"

Lereah actually wrote a book and hyped the dot coms.


PO'ed said...

Let's see where the NAR is, in terms of running through the (5) stages of grief:

1) Denial? Check. Been there, done that.

2) Anger (directed at the HB bloggers, who dared to speak about the King's New Clothes, or lack thereof)? Check.

3) Bargaining? Check.

4) Depression? Check.

5) Acceptance? Finally. The first step to dealing with a problem is admitting you have one.

But perhaps you haven't seen David "Ponzi Scheme" Lereah's comments to a group of developers in Florida today?


Here's the relevant portion:

But before that happens, Central Florida has to emerge from the current real estate slump, which most likely won't end until 2008, said Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

"It's not good right now," he said. And it hasn't been good for the past 18 months.

"In August 2005 we peaked," Lereah said. "That was the end of the boom. We just went down from there. And speculators got caught with their financial pants down."

Last year, Florida's residential real estate went into a recession.

Now the market is beginning to bottom out.

"Prices got too high," Lereah said of the 2005 market. "They shouldn't have gotten that high in the first place."

And it has taken sellers nearly a year to realize the market isn't in their favor, he said. "But we are headed in the right direction.

"(The outlook) is very positive for the future," he said. "It is all about the local economy. The fundamentals for a good market are still here."

Huh? Is he saying that the "boom" actually "busted", despite the fact the title of his last book touted that this "boom" WON'T go bust? Did he say that speculators got caught with their pants down?

How quickly we forget about the title of Lereah's prior book from 2005:

“Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade - And How to Profit From Them."

FWIW, the publishers recently retitled Lereah's book to avoid inducing cognitive dissonance in potential buyers at Barnes and Noble, as well as laughing fits on the floor! The book has now been re-titled:

“Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust - And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market.”

Isn't it amazing that the former title became so completely wrong, so completely off-track within a matter of months, that the title had to be changed?

Note how the guarantees of performance and timing (“investments WILL CLIMB through the end of the decade”) have been replaced with vague prophecies of how the boom won't go bust (and what exactly constitutes a bust, per Leheah? Is Florida not in a "bust"?).

Talk about MAJOR league back-pedalling, needing to eat a HUGE plate of humble pie, as if no one would remember his prior predictions?! Why are these statements not in the headlines of the NAR's home page? Oh, yeah: not good for sales, I guess.... For according to the NAR, now is ALWAYS a good time to buy and sell!

Even more astonishing is Lehreah's claim that "prices shouldn't have gone up that high"! As if it isn't clear that Lereah's own cheerleading MIGHT have played more than a teensie-weensie role in helping that occur in the first place! He must REALLY be scared of a market collapse, knowing that he'll be the poster child of the 2007 Real Estate Crash, right next to Casey Serin's stoopid face!

Davie, dude, you should be quite proud: you've accomplished EXACTLY what you and the NAR (and the Mortgage Brokers Association) set out to do: make LOTS of commissions for your rank-and-file members. What better way to get those hefty 6% commissions for members than to encourage prices sky-high? Remember: that 3 bd/2 ba house transaction earns TWICE the commission when it's sold for $500k vs $250k. Hey, that's a no-brainer. So you and yours did it, in a classic "I'm gettin' mine, and screw the rest of ya'" fashion.

Good job, you succeeded in running the market into the ground for personal gain, even though you damaged the market (remember that old concept of "consumer confidence"?) with the use of crooked practices and toxic mortgages, etc, that it'll remain toxic for decades to come.

Like all idiotic businessmen who don't understand the concept of building relationships with their ccustomers, he's focused only on the short-term gain, the quick and easy get-rich-quick scheme, and managed to kill the goose that laid the golden egg (as well as our economy)...

So here's to the likes of David "Ponzi" Lereah, scampering off with the profits and capital gains, while leaving pain and wreckage in the aftermath for others to clean up. Kudos, as even Kenneth Lay couldn't have done a better job.

Holy_Lawyer_Batman said...

Let's get the lawsuits going for corrupt data. Misleading statements, and Lying!

Anonymous said...

NAR's goal is sales. In saying prices are falling they want sellers to cut prices and not hold out for top dollar, thus increasing sales. They couldn't care less who makes and who loses money, as long as they (and their agents) continue to receive those commision checks

Kitchensink said...

That's good stuff Po'ed. Your piece was a great.

Anonymous said...

we need space to exclusively rip on CAsey serin.

that pos scumbag needs to got jail.

that filthy degenerate scumbag.


now he wants to write a book about his crimes.

he needs to write it from a jail cell.

how come, on his stupid blog... there are all these bleeding hearted losers, cheering him on and saying nice things.

i tried to post this to him:

F.O.D. F Off and Die

area 51 said...

But Keith you missed the subtitle:

"NAR officials said the historic price erosion for existing homes is due in large part to "a distortion in the data from the geographic shift in the composition of sales."

So, hmmm, guess they'll just fix that little nagging problem:

"Mr. Molony said the distortion is so significant that the NAR is working on an adjusted median price to better reflect what's actually happening in most of the country."

AWESOME, just FUDGE the data to make the prices always go up. These guys are friggen geniuses!


SeattleMoose said...

Don't worry...a quick retraction is already in the works.

beaver muncher said...

Who's ass did they pull thier numbers from, casey serin?
Prices here in arizona are already off 20-30%, so where do they come up with this .7%? The numbers are all lies people.Look around and tell me whatt you see.You do not have to be genius to figure out the ponzi scheme is over.

a.creampuff said...

For what it's worth - he's going gray.

Anonymous said...

Take the prices 25% down from todays tags and we are on the way to be ok IMO.


Anonymous said...

Prices here in arizona are already off 20-30%,

Show me 5 sales on zillow where this is the case. I love how you numbnuts accuse the NAR of making up numbers and then turn around with this 30% drop fantasy of yours.

Take a second and listen to yourself. You are saying that a home that sold in 2005 for $500,000 can be bought today for $350,000. Show me proof of this.

I don't think even qweefmeister believes you.

cow_tipping said...

Q: Hey, what do you call a realtor who tells people about the closing appointment he has leter in the day ???
A: A show off.
Alternate answer.
A: A liar.

Cow_tipping said...

Anonymous said...
Prices here in arizona are already off 20-30%,

Show me 5 sales on zillow where this is the case. I love how you numbnuts accuse the NAR of making up numbers and then turn around with this 30% drop fantasy of yours.

Take a second and listen to yourself. You are saying that a home that sold in 2005 for $500,000 can be bought today for $350,000. Show me proof of this.

I don't think even qweefmeister believes you.

I dont quite know about AZ, but here it is for Sacramento

Anonymous said...

guy across the street in phoenix asked 700,000 took 500,000 me, id not thought it was worth 135,000, ill be glad to sell at 500,000 or two years back prices, if there was someplace to go where my 20 years of orchid plantings were accessible, guess id wind up paying tax on 500,000 in value for 20 years and again sell for 185,000 as id been done for before

ramen ronin said...

Hi Everyone !
Gee, I hate to bother you guys, but I seem to have misplace 2.2 million dollars. If any of you guys happen to see it lying around, could you get it back to me?
Much Appreciated.

Its all Good