A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
I just rewatched Fight Club yesterday... best philosophy lesson disguised as a movie ever.Finding HP was like finding a book full of notes on the future that were all true... about one year in advance. HP gave me a sense of calm certainty that that gnawing sense in me that something wasn't right in the world financial markets... was right. I listened to it, and bought nothing... I rent, and have steadily stockpiled cash, and will continue to do so until things sort themselves out, and I can buy a house with an actual down payment, for an actual. reasonable price.Thanks Keith.Kudos, and keep up the good work.We're just getting started now.... oh and for a preview of the next financial debacle that will dovetail with the housing collapse check out Bloomberg's expose about the massive deliberate electronic stock conterfeiting fraud going on every day called: Phantom Shares... it's on you tube. Buckle up.
Yes, it let me know I was not crazy to think house prices were wacked, and that people were pretending to be wealthy while borrowing to finance a lifestyle. So yes it has, along with the other Bubble Blogs that popped up around the same time.
In Keith we trust!
Yes, my wife and me were out looking at houses in Feb 2006 and first could not believe what crap was for sale for 400,000 in Gainesville FL. But what caught us was that no one else was looking at homes. In early 2002 when we bought our current home(20% down and only 128,000 when our friends were buying 250,000)we had to bid against 6 other people in the driveway. This made me pause and I started research on the web to find out what was going on. From the first google I hit this blog and we never purhased that larger home (crap box).I have turned 20 or 30 people to this site and have stopped many people from purchasing homes and they have thanked me.
Reading HP has made me really question my spending habits and acquisitiveness. This blog is responsible for my giving more to charity than I ever have in the past.
It's made me afriad to leave the house, and I've had to up my meds because of this site. I am going to see the doc for a HP-ectomy, then I will be happy agian.
03/17/07 "ICH" -- -- The stock market is about to crash. The only question is whether it will quickly drop down the elevator shaft or follow the jerky flight-path of a man pushed down a stairwell. Either way, the outcome will be the same; stocks will nose-dive, the dollar will plummet, and the bruised US economy will be splattered on the canvas like George Foreman in Rumble in the Jungle. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17338.htm
It has helped me go from Prozac, to Valium, to Thorazine...all in a months time..TH.......AN........K........YOU....H.......P
Well, I do ask people to stop calling me Tyler Durden. I prefer to be known as Keyser Soze.Oh and of course I haven't got myself buried in a house payment. The wife was pushing that direction as I started to get bloggy. So in a strange twist of fate I have traded identities with characters of popular fiction and remained a happy, ecstatic renter!
The first rule of HP.........don't talk about HP!
no, but I chose to stay put based on patrick.net's blog.
80 percent of portfolio in cash now. 20 Gold and gold stocks.Will it be inflation or deflation? If it's inflation I could miss out on the blowoff windfalls.Real estate where I live is still rising 10%+ per year (isolated late bubble).
I'd be in debt up to my eyeballs if I hadn't read this blog and others. I know too many fools in their late 20's early 30's in Washington that are!Thanks HPDC Belway Girl
Stopped me from buying an overpriced piece of sh*t house. Because after all, housing prices never come down.
I met Richard, Borka, Mort, Butch and Anonopussys.Love HP.
No.I have actually been wating for the other shoe to drop for about 8 or 9 years (since before 911 if you believe). And believe it or not... this crash ain't the other shoe.As bad as this crash may become... in the end it is still an economic disaster and not a physical one. People still have to eat... and even though they're poor - as long as they have access to food, they will somehow survive.No... the other shoe to drop... and one to which most people are completely oblivious about - is peak oil. This would actually be a 'physical' disaster where growing food would no longer be an option since both the tractors and fertilizer plants run on the stuff.With decreasing amounts of oil (ie it gets more expensive) food will also become more scarce. I can just imagine food rotting in the warehouses as people starve to death because they can't afford to buy food which has become exhorbitantly expensive because of expensive oil. Following this, most farmers will declare bankruptcy because they can't afford the diesel for their farm equipment.Yes... I've heard the arguments, and there are ways to get out of the mess. But it usually involves converting the country into a fascist state where people's lives are overwhelmingly controlled by the state. (Can you name me ONE poor third world country - which can't afford oil - that has a functioning and thriving democracy?) In the end - you are still looking at a decrease in population (through more children dying at births or older people dying because of lack of services) and a greatly lowered standard of living. Those who can will head for greener pastures.The question is... how much faith do you have in your fellow man? If this is how they acted when there was a bunch of loose credit running around in the system... what will they become when they can't afford to fill up their car anymore?IBPS The LAST shoe to drop will be electricity. Though I'm NOT expecting this one to happen, but let's just say... if the lights go out... so do we.Peak oil will decimate the population of most advanced countries. Loss of electrical power will anihilate them.
Keith, you are great. I read for my daily laughs. Was "freaked out" from 2003 to 2005 as watched my house value go thru the roof. Knew it was unstainable and sold fall 2005. Didn't find you an other RE bloggers till 11/06. It was a breath of fresh air connecting to "my people". You have also contributed to my education. (Did not know the criminal lending industry was passing out loans like halloween candy.) I live in the far north of CA amongst a vast sea of clueless, happy talk, right wing idiots. Keep up the good work!
I have found this blog to be a mix a socialist loonies, Y2K survivalists that never got their chance and some good info sprinkled in...Marky Mark
The FBs Rules for Housing PanicRule #1: FBs do not talk about Housing Panic.Rule #2: FBs do NOT talk about Housing Panic!Rule #3: If you are a FB and this is your first time to Housing Panic...you're going to get your ass kicked!PS Best F***ing movie of the 90s!!
Not at all. But, in my case, HP is preaching to the choir. Doesn't mean it's not a good blog.
I seemed to be alone, with no debts and money in the bank. And nobody else could see the train wreck right around the bend in the tracks. Then I found HP.
This blog changed my life, it turned me from a loser to a winner! I thought I was a loser because everyone else had fancy houses, cars, etc. and I had a bunch of money in the bank and an old car and a low-paying job (working at home, I'm an artist, my own boss) and absolutely no debt and a pack of cool dogs.Wow!!! And the good company I'm in here! It's great!! Thanks! Everytime I get the urge to buy a house, I just come here and hang out for awhile.
Personally, I am now seeing more of the movie "Gremlins" reflected in American Society. They've been overfed after they should have been put to bed because of their endearing pleadings to thier handlers and soon, many will become lumpy and bumpy and not too cute.Smug Bastard
In summer of 2005, I picked up a copy of The Economist that was in the lobby of an accounting firm I was interviewing at fresh out of college.There was an article about the impending housing crash. At the time, it seemed absurd to me that something like that would happen, but there was a nagging voice in the back of my mind "what if it's right??" I knew I didn't want to be trapped in the current house I "owned" in the current city and neighborhood I was living in, and in fall of 2005 my husband and I put our house for sale so we could get out while it was still possible and trade up in a couple of years. It took our house 6 long months to sell (when we origially bought the house in 2002, it had been on the market for 1 month and had received multiple offers).My husband and I have been renting and stashing cash for the past year, and plan to buy a house later this year if we can get approved for a mortgage- we're not subprime or Alt-A, but who knows how hard it will be for even the good guys to get loans in a few months...If the loan falls through, I'm ok with that. We'll continue to hoard cash (but probrably move to a nicer, safer, apartment)until we have no debt, enough for 20% down, all new furniture, and some money leftover for safety. With the money I'm saving by renting, I figure it will take another year.
It has certainly changed mine. I knew something wasn't right between 2003-2005 here in Tampa Bay, and this is one of the first blogs I found with google. I was looking for others that supported my theory, and I found more that I ever thought I would.It felt good to know I wasn't crazy, and that prices weren't sustainable; thank you Keith!-Dragasoni-
"and the bruised US economy will be splattered on the canvas like George Foreman in Rumble in the Jungle."You don't call that a fight do you?It was a bleedin circus, nothing more!! Don Kings 1st foray into the fight game, I say no more.George was got at, ever see the pasting "Smokin Joe" got from Foreman and he whupped Ali's arse.For all the Ali fans out there, get back to me when he (Ali) brings out his grill!!
how has HP changed my life?By validating what I have felt about our society for many years but had to keep my mouth shut or else I would get the "Stop being so negative" statement.Our society sucks. Our world isn't much better.I'm glad to be a member of Dignitas and will probably take advantage of their service in the near future.
Yeah. It has made me more cynical and twisted. Coming here for the shcadenfreude. I don't get it. I am not a bitter renter or an F'd borrower. I have a SoCal pre-bubble home, nice, close to work, over 300k equity...but I still come here to read the stories about realt-whore troll bashing and angry home debtors or renters.
Yes, I've been moisturizing my skin more often.
"Yeah. It has made me more cynical and twisted."We were all already cynical and twisted before arrival; now we have an outlet.
but I still come here to read the stories about realt-whore troll bashing and angry home debtors or renters. March 20, 2007 6:55 PMcouponcutter said... Yes, I've been moisturizing my skin more often. ________________LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!
By far the most insightful posy from an ANON I have read here.And yes the electricity will go down.Read Richard Duncan's Olduvai Cliff theory...got till 2008-2012*****************************************PS The LAST shoe to drop will be electricity. Though I'm NOT expecting this one to happen, but let's just say... if the lights go out... so do we.Peak oil will decimate the population of most advanced countries. Loss of electrical power will anihilate them.
Yes it has changed my life!I realize there are alot more Assholes out there...i.e. honica and blowfly!
Hi from NZ. Have been watching your market since August via these blogs- Patrick,HP etc. Waiting to see if we get blown away as well. Can't get a lot in my suburb for much under NZ$850K. So saving cash and waiting, and watching.If i hadn't found all this stuff i would have bought and had a hefty mortgage. So HAPPILY renting with the family for the moment
Growing up in the 70s/80s we were all promised a nuclear war. We were cheated!Now will have the Housepocalypse Now and it WILL NOT BE DENIED!Unlike nuclear war there ARE winners in a housepocalypse.
Yes. I am even more bitter, cynical and skeptical than ever before. No one talks to me anymore and my dog ran away. And reading Richard's posts makes me want to open my wrists.JAFO
Sometimes, when I come at night to all the catalogues, and all the things I bought from those catalogues, it makes me want to shoot lighter fluid through my keyhole and torch my own condo -- and I don't live in a condo.colonel kurtzking of the bitter renters
By far the most insightful posy from an ANON I have read here.Thank you Richard.Like I said... I was looking at this problem since before 911. When I saw websites being valued at a billion dollars - I just knew something was not right!And... I've been debating this issue with my friend (who is actually more pessimistic than you are :-) for quite a number of years.The loss of electricity is a no brainer. The control structures (government, army, police, firemen, etc.) wouldn't even be able to communicate with one another - or with the citizenry. If the power is not turned on within a week - this communication breakdown alone is enough to spark major upheavels and revolution. Considering that most cities only have 4 days worth of food supplies, a week is enough for people to start revolting just to find food.So... it's quite useless to examine electricity's effects. Let's just say that if the power doesn't come on in 24 hours - head for the hills.As for oil... that's a different story. Rationing can be introduced, controls will still be in place, and you will initially see a very quick change to a facist state. The key of course is people's stomachs. If people start getting hungry... the police and army will be overrun faster than the bulls of Pamplona. (If 1% of the population of the US turns against the police - they would outnumber the police 100 to 1). In the extreme case where 10% of the population feels their government is unresponsive - the revolution is a done deal. Essentially any control by the government in these areas would cease to exist.The big factor is how smart the PTB will be when the time comes. People really won't care about fascism as long as their bellies are full and they 'feel' safe. How do you think Hitler came to power?As for this housing crash... yes, 'some' people will go hungry. Many will become homeless. And alot might end up in jail. But it's not the end of the world - just the end of another cycle.IB
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