February 26, 2007

Trust the "experts" - there was no housing bubble. It's different this time! All will be fine!


They all sounded so convincing at the time, didn't they HP'ers? The MSM sure thought so. Millions of Desperate Homedebtors sure hoped so. But alas, they were a parade of fools, some corrupt, some stupid, and all wrong.

First, you have the NAR's anti-bubble realtor spin instructions, which are still up on their website:

These downloadable 10-page reports show that the facts simply do not support the possibility of a housing bust -- not for these 135 markets and not for the nation

And The Corrupt David Lereah from January 2006:

"The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead."

Then there was the idiot MSN columninst Jim Jubak in June 2005 with this gem:

Why there is no housing bubble. The sky is not falling. Yes, home prices are sky-high, but we really don't have a housing bubble that is anywhere near bursting.

And of course, you have NAR-poodle Nicholas Retsinas at the corrupt Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies boldly proclaiming in 2002:

Bubbles, of course, do burst; but housing is not a bubble akin to tulips or to Enron or other corporate scandals. It is a concrete product -- a place where people live. And as anybody who has sold or bought a house can attest, it is not an easily fungible commodity.

And Dr. James Smith, the dimwitted and corrupt chief economist for the Society of Industrial and Office realtors, pontificated in April 2005:

There Is No Housing Bubble in the USA - There is no evidence of a housing “bubble” in the United States and housing demand should stay strong for years to come.

And finally, Donald Trump's little play thing Kendra Todd:

"You can't go anywhere without hearing people talk about "the real estate bubble." Such talk drives me to distraction, and I'll tell you why. It's because there is no real estate bubble. Bubbles are for bathtubs."

I hope Americans know a fraud, a liar and a con-man next time they see one. The housing bubble sure brought out the bunch of 'em. And some are still at it. But their day is done. It's over.

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

20 months since the "bubble" burst yet homes in Orange County still average $600K. I'm getting a little tired of waiting for this crash AL-QWEEFERINO

Anonymous said...

20 months since the "bubble" burst yet homes in Orange County still average $600K. I'm getting a little tired of waiting for this crash AL-QWEEFERINO


What an idiot! Got to b 'blowfly'!

Anonymous said...

Ha Ha Ha - Silver's up again!

The miners are doing great (GDX) and Hecla's up 3% just today. I'm getting rich on silver and so should you.

The credit explosion is now imploding. Keith may be living in London but he's right on the money.

Anonymous said...

I'd take a bubble bath with her mmmm hmmmm

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Anyone else getting tired of the word "expert", especially in the area of real estate?

The Thinker said...

Over the weekend I checked out these new construction townhouses by where I live (an hour out of New York City). They were asking $1,500,000 for these lovely track-houses in a small cluster right off a major road. The construction looked a little sloppy in places but all-in-all it was a very nice looking building.

Of course taxes and maintenance fees alone added up to $2,000 a month.

I don't understand, I really don't understand how attached housing off a major road can be worth so much money. What on earth am I missing?

It looked like they had sold a good number of these places even though many of the units weren't fully constructed yet.

We've all been sitting around patting ourselves on the back for predicting the burst of the housing bubble, but prices on the ground where I live are absolutely INSANE!

Any thoughts?

Bill From PVB said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

HOLY CRAP GOLD HITTING $688!

Anonymous said...

"any thoughts"

Here's one: Just because a few socialist blogs like HP have been telling you houses will cost 70% less in 2007 compared to 2005, doesn't make it so. Just because you really wish a $1.5M townhome will cost $200K won't make it so.

Anonymous said...

>>HOLY CRAP GOLD HITTING $688!<<

..and speculative open interest is at record levels. The 10 year bond hasn't moved while gold has gone through the roof, and they typically are highly correlated.

Gold bubble?

Frank said...

"20 months since the "bubble" burst yet homes in Orange County still average $600K. I'm getting a little tired of waiting for this crash"

Hmm ... that's odd ... I was just in Newport Coast looking last week, and houses that sold for $1.2 Million a year ago are now going for around $700,000. Are we talking about the same Orange County? LOL

Anonymous said...

>>Here's one: Just because a few socialist blogs like HP have been telling you houses will cost 70% less in 2007 compared to 2005, doesn't make it so. Just because you really wish a $1.5M townhome will cost $200K won't make it so.<<

That would be an 87% drop, but we appreciate your optimism.

Anonymous said...

Hmm ... that's odd ... I was just in Newport Coast looking last week, and houses that sold for $1.2 Million a year ago are now going for around $700,000. Are we talking about the same Orange County? LOL

Wow you renters are stupid. If you're going to make things up, make it somewhat believable, like $1.2M to $1.1M, maybe $1.0M. But 1.2M to $700K...LOL!!

Median price in Orange County is more or less the same today as it was a year ago.

Silly renters.

Anonymous said...

Right before I moved up to Los Angeles (Santa Monica) from Orange County (Newport Beach) I went to a Starbucks and no less then three guys in their 40s were wearing black t-shirts and camo cargo shorts. Orange County is the land of the over-leveraged metro-sexual wannabe.

Anonymous said...

Gold bubble?

WHAT? You mean the very same "experts" here talking about housing bubbles are buying into a gold bubble?

Nahh. Impossible. You must be a realwthore/MSM/Bu$hco troll.

decaffeinated said...

..and speculative open interest is at record levels. The 10 year bond hasn't moved while gold has gone through the roof, and they typically are highly correlated.

Gold bubble?


In my experience, the price of gold (POG) tracks US dollar index changes, and this index recently dropped below 84 (a very "large" move in a relatively short time).

One graph is here.

If the dollar index rises, it's pretty much a given that the POG will decrease. There are a lot of other factors that affect gold's US dollar price (short selling, central bank selling, etc.), but, IMO, changes in the USD index are almost 100% correlated with changes in the POG.

An in-depth analysis of the USD index and its (possible) future action is here.

Anonymous said...

"NAR-poodle Nicholas Retsinas"

Why do I fear Retsinas has in his spare time spent the last 20 years as a donor of sperm for fertility clinics from coast to coast?

Anonymous said...

Hmm ... that's odd ... I was just in Newport Coast looking last week, and houses that sold for $1.2 Million a year ago are now going for around $700,000. Are we talking about the same Orange County? LOL

February 26, 2007 11:37 PM

=============================

Now with credit contracting and mortgage fraud outted, the price statistics will drop dramatically.

Anonymous said...

gold bubble is not possible, they can't make any more of the stuff...like beachfront property it will go up always

Anonymous said...

DemoCrap morons will get crushed in So Fla and Californicate. Those Palm Beach cretins who couldn't use a butterfly ballot deserve to get steamrolled.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

I would really like to spank her little bottom.....because she's been soo bad!

Anonymous said...

We will have lot of cheap condos which once sold for 300-400 K...

64 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr Wheeling IL 60090 NOD Clark
65 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr Wheeling IL 60090 05-15-2006 LP Clark Christina $149,523
66 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr # G-21 Wheeling IL 60090 11-29-2006 LP Burkowski Mark
67 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr # G24 Wheeling IL 60090 01-08-2007 LP Pilch Pawel
68 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr Apt... Wheeling IL 60090 NOD Burkowski $212,951
69 Details 2 Plum Creek Dr Apt... Wheeling IL 60090 02-01-2007 LP Mikailin Olga
70 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr Apt... Wheeling IL 60090 NOD Mikailin
71 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr Apt... Wheeling IL 60090 NOD Radutny $144,743
72 Details Active - Plum Creek Dr Apt... Wheeling IL 60090 NOD Pilch $138,533
73 Details Inactive - Plum Creek Dr Apt... Wheeling IL 60090 NOD Gerstein $184,523

Pitsa

Shakster said...

HPr's seem to grasp that any asset can ,and likely will bubble.When Masses of dipshits start squealing about gold,like all the wannabes that bought Harleys,dot Coms,House Flippers,and The MSM touts it with shows titled "Flip That Bullion Coin",and Gold only goes up then I will sell 50% to the next sucker who read a book about getting filthy rich. A Few things to Ponder though.Is gold running out?Will it be more scarce?Why is it still vital,why do all the CB's hoard it,Why did the US Treasury re-classify it's rserves "Deep Storage",why does it continue to rise?,why the inverse correlation to the dollar?Why has it broken it's so called relationship with oil?Why do Warren Buffet,and Bill Gates Have mindboggling reserves of Silver?What happens when all the Flippers decide they want an ounce or two each?What is the next big gold strike,and how long to bring it to production?Where will the peak reach to?How long will the bear last afterwords?
If the FBs would have applied these questions to housing,there truly would be no bubble,but an orderly price appreciacion,and manageable supply of homes. Oh well.I think the fact that most people who buy gold are more sophisticated than FBs,and the fact that FB's have learned a hard won lesson in investing, should hold the appreciation of gold ,and silver into a more orderly rise,but the Bull market in PMs will last a very ,very long time.Happy investing,and yes that is a goddamned peice of investment advice.TooTaLoo Baby.

Frank said...

"Wow you renters are stupid. If you're going to make things up, make it somewhat believable, like $1.2M to $1.1M, maybe $1.0M. But 1.2M to $700K...LOL!!"

Here's an example: Look up 3 Calvados, Newport Coast, 92657. $1.2M to $700k in under 2 years. Look it up, Mr. Genius. Let me guess - you're the idiot homedebtor who is now stuck in one of those homes for the next 10 years, making payments that are double than they would be if you had bought now, and you're venting on the rest of us who have brains?

Frank said...

"Right before I moved up to Los Angeles (Santa Monica) from Orange County (Newport Beach) I went to a Starbucks and no less then three guys in their 40s were wearing black t-shirts and camo cargo shorts. Orange County is the land of the over-leveraged metro-sexual wannabe."

You really need to visit Scottdale, Arizona. It makes Orange County (and LA for that matter) look like the most normal, down-to-earth place in the world. In all fairness though OC has a lot of wannabe communities like AV, RSM, and Coto that are similar to Scottsdale.

Anonymous said...

Anyone notice that Blowjob hasn't shown his face here since the sub primes starting crashing?

Anonymous said...

My SLV stop triggered today when silver did that plunge and then bounced back.

I took some good profits but now I have withdrawal pains.

I need my silver back!

bozonian said...

The high house prices are supported by the last of the mortgages being written. There are always a certain percentage of stupid people who will take out a mortgage and default on the first payment. It's happening so don't think that's fantasy.

The salesmen and brokers are in control. They'll keep selling mortgages and getting their commission until this Titanic sinks beneath the waves. Everyone along the chain of loans is getting a cut to keep it all going. It's the Mortgage Backed Security holders who are going to be stuck holding the bag.

bozonian said...

In my area (San Bernardino, Riverside California) virtually EVERY sale per zillow.com is losing money if the house was bought in 2005.

The current sales are 15% lower than the purchase price in 2005

Here's the list. You can check these out for yourself. Welcome to the real world.

32947 Squirrel Ln, Arrowbear Park, CA 92308
01/02/2007: $227,000 15% loss
03/31/2006: $265,000
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=17404499

609 Karenken Pines Dr, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352
01/26/2007: $297,558 16% loss
02/11/2005: $352,000
10/08/2004: $299,000
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=17414847

214 S Fairway Dr, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352
01/19/2007: $494,490 15% loss
03/23/2006: $575,000
06/13/2005: $450,000
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=17414337

777 Fern Dr, Crestline, CA 92325
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=17418021
01/10/2007: $286,248 16%
10/03/2005: $339,000
05/07/2004: $220,000

33812 Salvia Ln, Murrieta, CA 92563
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=63095581
01/11/2007: $433,319
08/09/2005: $493,500

These are just a few samples. Anyone can check this out themselves on zillow.com

Also, here is a list from foreclosure.com. One guy has 21 houses in pre-forclosure.

http://tinyurl.com/33bxxn

It's all going down. Those are the facts. Pretty soon someone will be foreclosing on Blowfly's house and booting him out on his ass.

bozonian said...

Oh, and Orange County WILL be tanking also. It will be the hardest fall of all as that county has gone bankrupt before due to completely irresponsible spending. I see nothing has changed. Here are some houses already being sold at a loss.

Welcome to the real world.

161 Bloomfield Ln, Rancho Santa Margarita, CA 92688
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=51675660
01/19/2007: $535,000
03/30/2005: $552,000

Here's a nice 100,000 dollar loss.

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25612841
28426 Boda, Mission Viejo, CA 92692
01/04/2007: $621,115
01/26/2006: $720,000
06/05/1992: $227,000

Like I said, anyone can use zillow and verify this stuff. Right now the prices are retracing and undercutting 2005 prices. It's
going to get worse....

Sorry for the lack of tiny urls but there's just too many urls to post. Can't you widen the format of the message posts?

bozonian said...

Henry the VIIIth has the right idea about how to handle people who debase the country's currency:

Under Henry I, the quality of England’s silver coins fall dramatically. In 1124, the right hands of the mint masters were cut off causing a temporary improvement in the quality. Henry II reformed the English coinage in 1158 thereby restoring the prestige of English money which was maintained for the next three centuries.

Nice.

Anonymous said...

WhoTF is blowfly?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"any thoughts"

Here's one: Just because a few socialist blogs like HP have been telling you houses will cost 70% less in 2007 compared to 2005, doesn't make it so. Just because you really wish a $1.5M townhome will cost $200K won't make it so.

February 26, 2007 11:21 PM

Sorry, but I'm a housing bubble refugee and I can tell you first hand there is a prelude to ugliness out there. The townhome w/ a FMV of 412k which I had paid 385k for in 04 went for 350k in the fall of 06 because I could only find one buyer who was willing to pay anything at all. I was a change in circumstances seller, 20% down fixed with long term plans and lived in the unit, not flipper. I was undermined by all the parastic flippers who created a very unstable FMV pricing structure along with a ghost town of a community. Fortunately there are still several flippers in the plan trying to sell at the inflated prices their bretheren created and having their illusory profits eroded each month due to carrying costs and blind greed. So I get joy out of the fact that I have undermined them.

A friend of mine in the hyper bubble of NoVa got what is currently perceived as a good deal. Homedebtor had a toxic loan that had exploded and tried to sell his townhome at 630k. No bites for six months, several price cuts down 560k when my friend bought. We all still think he paid too much, but you've got to live somewhere too and his family had outgrown their old place.

I agree some folks here are extreme in their comments as to the upside and the downside on this bubble, but many are realistic and well grounded and they all indicate problems on the horizon.

To show that I am not biased toward the negative on this I completely agree with the other anon that is pro-bubble (bath that is):

Anonymous said...
I'd take a bubble bath with her mmmm hmmmm

February 26, 2007 9:15 PM

Frank said...

"Oh, and Orange County WILL be tanking also. It will be the hardest fall of all as that county has gone bankrupt before due to completely irresponsible spending. I see nothing has changed. Here are some houses already being sold at a loss."

If you really want to see an OC bloodbath, look up some Newport Coast properties. I just signed a lease on a house that was bought for $1.2M less than 2 years ago for $3,500/month!! It's now valued at around $700k (this is in the Sancerre development).

My girlfriend's cousin sold his house in Newport Coast about 18 months ago for $7.2 million and it's now valued at less than $5M.

OC will be a MAJOR bloodbath ... it already is, and still has nowhere to go but down.

Anonymous said...

blowfly says;


i'm busy doing gay porn!

Anonymous said...

Trump is all ego plain and simple!

All talk and attitude!

His brats have nothing but his name to ride on!

Recent mailer, Go to a Trump seminar...meet Ivanka!

He wipes his ass like everyone else!

Anonymous said...

I have Nothing against Trump, but he does not sign my paychecks or direct me in anyway!

He is one of the only people I have ever seen than will constantly tell you his worth!

I would love to somehow, someday meet him. All his blustering, leering glances, and Holier than thou act wouldn't as much as be a blip on my radar!

He's just entertaiment!!!

Anonymous said...

My girlfriend's cousin sold his house in Newport Coast about 18 months ago for $7.2 million and it's now valued at less than $5M.

LOL!! Oh man you renters. Like I said before, make your stories at least somewhat plausible. $7.2M to $5M eh? OK any addresses to check on zillow?
Dude you sound like the guy in 7th grade with the hot girlfriend in Canada that nobody's ever met.

Anonymous said...

EXPERT
verbal pronunciation
EX-SPURT

EX= former
SPURT= a brief spray of water, dribble, drip

EXPERT= a former drip
and anyone who listens to them is all wet.