Won't everyone be surprised that those unsustainable home price gains were 100% driven by fraud, deception and speculation?
50% up, 33% down and we're right back where we started folks... Oh, what a wild ride it will be...
February 16, 2007
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16 comments:
Jayman--good catch. Its a story that will be repeated in other parts of CA, AZ and FL. Love the comments--quite funny and it shows that people are increasingly on to the absurdity of the whole mess.....
great article...added my own comment
"Silent Spring 07" When zombie American Consumer/Homedebtors wake up and realize this was all just a fiction and that they are holding the bag on a debt that exceeds the true/empirical value of the asset used to secure it. WHY? To save the economy from post dot-com immediate implosion/depression, a decade's long housing implosion was created to spread the pain out in terms of time and market population (i.e. more people own homes than owned stock). Just don't sell for the next decade and you'll avoid the pain. If you have to sell, the do so pronto. Renting or foreclosure will be the only viable options.
back to 1990 prices.
Great picture reminds me of Aunt Ester from Sanford and Son.
I'm in the car business, and some guys can qualify to borrow 15,000 on a '72 pinto and some can't qualify to borrow loan value on a '04 Tahoe. It ultamaly always falls back on the individual borrower, on what there name is worth.But in any case if the if the asset doesn't exceed the loan value somebody eventally is gonna hurt.
In my little town of pop: 15,000, the only people buying these houses were the construction workers building them, now the work dried up, no houses are being built and everybody is rushing to sell their houses and move to where the jobs are. I predict in three years my town will be a ghost town with hundreds of abandand houses as all the contractors move back to where they came from.
5,000 on a '72 Pinto???
847 delinquency notices.......In a county of 3 million people
Yup the end is here.
"Anonymous said...
847 delinquency notices.......In a county of 3 million people
Yup the end is here."
Anon 16 07 9:56 has a good point. If the foreclosure rate were 100 times worse at, say, 84,700 it would stand out more, but still be under 3%. Even then over 97% of the people would still be keeping up with their payments!
Hardly a bust yet!
>>Hardly a bust yet! <<
"Yet" is the operative word.
It only takes one or two foreclosures in your neighbohood to dramatically lower your comps for resale. Throw in tightened lending standards, and you're fooked.
>>847 delinquency notices.......In a county of 3 million people<<
Yeah, and every home is occupied by one person and one person only. Put the joint down you dirty yuppie hippie.
the astounding amounts of trully "creative" fraud is really surprising even to someone like myself (thought I'd seen it all after seeing the loan/appraiser mess, etc.)
It makes me trully afraid to go anywhere near this market. I mean seriously, who knows how far it's got to fall to come clean?
No, there are not 3 million houses or people in Orange County. The estimated 2006 population is just over 1 million. There are only 361,000 housing units in OC. The national average is 67% homedebtorship. That comes out to 242,000 homedebtor families.
With an average of 847 notices of default per month, you would have 10,164 NODs for the entire year for the 242,000 homedebtors. That's a greater than 4% foreclosure rate. Then comes another 4% in 2008. Then another 4% in 2009. Now you have 12% of the OC homedebtors thrown out of their overpriced stucco boxes in three short years.
This doesn't take into account that the rate of NOD's filed is accelerating. By 2010, nearly every GF who bought in SoCal in 2003 or later will be kicked out or sell for a loss. The other option is to set up a cash kickback deal with an illegal alien if the banks are still stupid enough to give out 100% liar's loans.
What a wonderful thing.
Great reply fawked realtroll!!!
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