What else do Americans need to see in terms of proof for them to come to the awareness and understanding that housing from 2001 to 2005 was caught up in a massive, historic and unsustainable mania, one that is now swiftly, firmly, predictably and unequivocally crashing?
Mania,
then
Panic,
then
Crash.
February 14, 2007
HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day
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26 comments:
Ohhhh hohoho ...
There was bubble prior to 2001 baby ...
In some areas 97 was the pre bubble year, others 97-02 bubble deflated and slowly blew itself up again ... you betcha ... 97 and earlier atleast some parts (Bay area especially)
Also I think all the jobs in BA have gone to India and China. We'll never see them again, ever.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
Sorry, Keith but the sheeple will have to see much, much more and for far, far longer than they have to date before they will accept that real estate is a cyclical, boom-and-bust proposition. Until the following is played out:
1. Five to ten million homes are sitting unoccupied, rotting in the elements
2. Two trillion dollars in mortgage payments are defaulted upon.
3 Five million sheeps are thrown out of the McMansion that they THOUGHT they "owned"
4. The banking system is crippled
5. The MBS industry is decimated and no MBS investor will even look at a deal that doesn't have 20% down and a 10% interest rate
6. The government has tried everything in their playbook, including "foreclosure/debt moratoriums", dropping interest rates to zero, passing "The Homedebtor Anti-Terror Sheeple Act of 2008/9" that allows the sheeps to refi into government-backed, fixed-rate loans
7. Five years or more of falling house prices
8. The entire economy suffering, unemployment at 10%
9. A complete credit revulsion whereby sheeps will be too terrified to borrow even on their Capital One card and lenders will be even more terrified to lend
10 A stock market crash similar to 2000-2002...
...then, and only then (and again AFTER five or more years AND after the feds have exhausted all avenues) will the sheeps even begin to underestand that real estate (and stocks) don't "always go up". Until then, look for wave after wave of specualtors trying to catch the falling knives on home flips and the sheeps all huddling together on Yahoo chat boards trying to comfort each other that the NAR will save the day.
BRING ON WAR WITH IRAN!!! nothin else says cya like wag the dog.
Check out the foreclosures!
http://bubbletracking.
blogspot.com/
What are you talking about, the media says everything is good? You just want me not to buy a house, well I'm going to buy the biggest house in CA and flip it - just because others say it can't be done.
Tried to talk to a friend that had a house. then bought a new one, that needs work, before he sold his old one. I told him to dump the old one. He wasn't listening to me.
Clinton pulled that wag the dog crap!
Why shouldn't Bush!
Mortgage money is still too easy to get. We will not see the true panic
until almost no one can get a fixed
rate loan without 20% down. Too many
of the option-ARM people are still
able to refinance or sell at this point.
A slap in the face from someone they look up to and admire and who also lived through the great depression.
A kind of "open your f'ing eyes you f'ing morons" moment.
Remember that large portions of the country did not participate in the bubble. So there are areas, like Omaha, that are overbuilt, but pricing is in line with fundamentals.
http://www.foreclosurepulse.com/
Nationwide foreclosures continued to increase in number as of January. This was the highest number of foreclosures since the inception of the foreclosure index two years ago. The trustee sale section of the classifieds of my local paper seemed to be thickening.
Double digit housing appreciation with low wage/salary increases led to a scenario of houses becoming worth less as households had to cope with higher interest rates in a post housing boom time period.
This week the t-bill sold at its highest rate in three years. Higher t-bill - interest rates = higher interest rates of indexed mortgages = less amount of home one might afford on the same salary = potential for housing panic.....
I recall in the Vietnam war China and Russia supplied Hanoi with weapons and supplies for the duration. We avoided direct confrontations with them, had to leave the war as the South Vietnamese government of Saigon was infiltrated by politicians hoarding money and communist spies. The countryside was booby trapped and infiltrated. The man was a fieldworker by day and terrorist by night. The communists were brutal and those areas yet suffered government repression to this day, yet in the abscense of violent blood shed and threat they have opened up some to capitalism may consider further reforms.
I was having dinner last night at Fat Lorenzo's, near the intersection of 77 and 62, which is just south of minneapolis and "real estate" folks were debating what "housing fraud" was.
Apparently, they've heard that people around the area will be going to jail in a few months for giving away cars, etc... Interestingly enough, people are calling them and asking for perks and they have to keep saying now.....
So, the reality IS starting to set in...
There couldn't be enough clues on hand and yet Wall Street is still doing the victory dance. It celebrates for the least little reason. Yesterday 100 points because Alcoa might merge and today because Bernanke said everything is wonderful. I don't know, seems like we have bubble transference again. From housing back to the stock market. Because obviously sub prime going belly up, domestic auto industry crashing and a hundredd other sordid details, these things just don't MATTER. When WILL THEY MATTER?!!!!!
Hot off the Unemployment press:
Masco plans to cut 8,000 workers by end of first quarter
PrintDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Laura Mandaro
Last Update: 3:03 PM ET Feb 14, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)-- Cabinet maker Masco Corp. (MAS : Masco Corporation
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 31.56-0.25-0.79%
2:51pm 02/14/2007
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MAS31.56, -0.25, -0.8%) plans to have reduced its headcount by 8,000 workers, or over 16% of its U.S. workforce, by the end of the first quarter, said CEO Richard Manoogian. He was speaking in a Wednesday conference call with investors to discuss the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, where it reported a loss. Manoogian said severance and other costs from the firings will contribute to lower first-quarter earnings. Masco said earnings may decline 50% or more from earnings of 50 cents a share posted in the year-earlier quarter. Shares in Masco were recently down 23 cents a share to $31.58.
guy daily, this kinda backs up what you just wrote,
http://tinyurl.com/36vux2
and
http://tinyurl.com/yqln5s
It's like the sheep are getting led to slaughter.
sawry, guy daley, I spelt yer nayme rong.
No "proof" will ever suffice. This is a nation crippled in the subtle nuiances of elementary math.
Not to mention ignorance of science. See: 'intelligent design'
The things you mention don't matter because dumb ass baby boomers keep pouring their 401K money into the stock game. All those payroll deductions keep rolling in for the casino. While the bosses skim off the top. Ever meet a baby boomer who did not like to gamble, I know, they call it investing. Just as they were left holding the bag when the "new economy" Nasdaq crashed, and then rushed to the Dow, only for that to crash a few years later. Now, its time to teach them a lesson that they do not "own" 3 houses. And just when as a group they go to get Wall Streets Casino money, that will bust too. Can someone please bring back the greatest generation because I am so tired of fat, suv driving, viagra taking, know it all, gambling, common stock crazy, don't know they are old yet boomers. Oh, and save the Ad Homin arguments. I'm a rich xer in the top 10%
hahaha, Butch, your remark below was too funny, right on.
"The Homedebtor Anti-Terror Sheeple Act of 2008/9"
The agents of disinformation and deception (Fed, Wall Street, BusinessWeek, Time, Fox, Forbes, etc) are hard at work, bringing the hood over the head of the sheep. Everything is soooooo rosy in America!!!
"Michael said...
Mortgage money is still too easy to get. We will not see the true panic
until almost no one can get a fixed
rate loan without 20% down. Too many
of the option-ARM people are still
able to refinance or sell at this point.
February 14, 2007 4:42 PM
"
Welcome to the 40 - 50 year mortages Im seeing today.
Next stop 100 year mortgages!
(ie. Generation mortgages just like JAPAN)
A sure sign of an ailing industry is when the industry has to change the formulas to reflect better statistics.
DataQuick revises its entire housing history
Most noteworthy in this month's DataQuick report is the fact that the market tracker has revamped its home-sales math, resulting in a totally revised O.C. housing recordbook. (It's a statewide revision.)
The changes include a broader definition of a home sale and a new way to calculate the median price. Figures back to 1988 were revamped. All told, DataQuick's remodeling didn't change its O.C. median price calculation much, with the revised prices 0.8% lower since '88 than the old numbers. More liberal acceptance of unorthodox sales bumped up sales volumes by an average of 9.1%.
Says John Karevoll of DataQuick: "We've been using the same methodology for almost two decades. In that time, DataQuick has enhanced the database significantly, and gone national. We can do things now that we couldn't back when we started. These changes will take advantage of improvements, and synchronize the California numbers with what we're doing outside the state."
Here's a breakdown of how the monthly median prices and volume counts changed:
Slice Price Volume
Resale Houses 0.4% 7.6%
Resale Condos -0.2% 9.4%
Newly Built* -0.6% 15.3%
All Combined -0.8% 9.1%
* Includes single-family homes, condos and converted apartments
Among the highlights of the data revisions, dug up by your blogger and The Register's Jeff Collins:
• The record median price for an Orange County residence is now $642,500 in June 2006, instead of $646,000.
• O.C.’s median home price has now been continuously above the $600,000 mark since May 2005.
• O.C. monthly home sales have now failed to keep pace with previous year's totals for 16 months. Previous data put the losing streak at 15 months.
• Peak appreciation in the recent run-up was 32.5 percent annualized in May 2004, instead of 36.4 percent.
bull; The 1990s slump still looks ugly. Revised data says it took 83 months for home prices to regain their peak median selling price (1995-2001) after a 16% price drop. Old data put the downturn at 84 months and a 17% drop, peak to valley.
• However, that era's sales slump got a new bottom. Previously, 1992 was that downturn's slowest selling year. Revised data shows it was 1995.
Every smart person knows that humans cam efrom monkey, which came from fish which came from bacteria which came from living proteinoids which appeared out of thin air - that doesn't take a miracle at all. Life always pops out of thin air
GM and DCX are at two year highs. F is barely down from 2 year highs
Its going to take something much more sever/systemic for average self absorbed/ignorant American to realize we have a problem, i.e. it will have to bit them all directly and personally. Americans are not into being proactive, doing their homework/research and reaching conclusions based upon independent thought. They want it either all done for them and served on a silver platter (this is why NAR & the MSM can get away with all their lies) OR it must bit the on the face & a$$ hard and painfully by which time of course it will be too late, but that is the American way.
scientist said...
"Every smart person knows that humans cam efrom monkey, which came from fish which came from bacteria which came from living proteinoids which appeared out of thin air - that doesn't take a miracle at all. Life always pops out of thin air"
----------------
(premise: scientist was being sarcastic)
Me & the Mrs. were having a conversation on the way home from A Night at the Museum last night, discussing the farse of "evolution."
I can disprove evolution from a monkey (at least to my satisfaction) with one word:
tail
As useful as a monkey's tail is, even without living in trees anymore, there's no way we would have "evolved" without it.
As for the big bang theory, allow me to re-phrase more simply:
First there was nothing.
Then it exploded.
And that is why Godless public schools will continue to mass produce consumers and laborers.
Only problem is they don't have the balance anymore. Lots to consume in America, but not so much labor needed... unless you are willing to move to China or India and work cheap.
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