What's after Code Red by the way? I think we should prepare ourselves for that too...
Someone please check in on Greg Swann and make sure he's OK, and has enough ramen noodles to make it through the housing crash winter.
February 07, 2007
HOUSINGPANIC DECLARES HOUSING PONZI SCHEME CRASH CODE RED. REPEAT - CODE RED. CRASH FIRMLY UNDERWAY. FULL STOP.
Posted by blogger at 2/07/2007
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35 comments:
You say that every day.
Not that I think you're wrong, necessarily.
It is taking a long time for prices to really fall though. Very annoying.
code red and ramen noodles. Not that I don't love your site but can we please get some new cliches for the F'd RE industry? I think this the 5th time I have seen these terms in a title. Yawn.
RE is a very SLOOOOOOW market people, not like the quick in and outs of the DOW.
Just because is has not "crashed" yet in your backyard, it will, nobody is safe. no area is safe, regardless of what you or the locals say.
the corruption is so wide and so deep it will take over a year or more before the bottom is in.
Code Orange and Spam maybe will make you happy?
The Speculation of a Lifetime
The Daily Reckoning
London, England
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
What is going on? Why doesn't it pop? We have our 'Crash Alert' flag
flying from The Daily Reckoning flagpole. But no one even bothers to
look
up.
We thought about it last night...pausing only for prayer and alcohol.
What
we were looking for was an answer to the age-old question: Why are so
many
people so stupid? When we watch TV or read the news, we find views that
would make an imbecile blush with embarrassment...numbers that would
make
a sober man gasp for air.
What bread do these people eat? What air do they breathe? Why are they
allowed out in public?
And yet, when we meet them, we discover that they drive cars...they
have
jobs...they manage their own checkbooks. How is it possible? We have
always wondered.
And we think we have found the answer.
The Inverse Square Law: Useful intelligence decreases by the square of
the
distance from the facts.
Like gravity.
If a person issues too many I.O.U.s, lenders catch on quickly and cut
him
off. When a bank issues too many notes, word gets around. Depositors
get
jumpy. Then, they take out their money...and the bank fails. This used
to
happen all the time before the Federal Reserve System was set up.
Likewise, if a country spent more than it could afford, gradually, if
not
immediately, people holding the nation's currency would begin to sweat.
Then, they would sell the currency for others, or for gold. Interest
rates
would rise...and the problem would correct itself - either gracefully
or
calamitously.
But now with this new imperial money, un-backed by anything but faith,
people are so far from the facts, they don't know what to make of it.
Can
the United States go broke? If it could, how come it hasn't? None of us
has any idea how many dollars walk the earth...nor how much each one
should be worth. The banker in Japan...the hotel owner in Paris...the
speculator in Madrid - they are all fools.
But do yourself a favor, dear reader - look up. Incline your head
towards
the top of our Daily Reckoning mast. There, you will find our 'Crash
Alert' flag still flying proudly, and singularly. We may not be right
about this today or tomorrow...or even for many months. But we will be
right about it eventually...and importantly.
Code red lol. Man, I just wish prices would quit GOING UP where I live.
"the corruption is so wide and so deep it will take over a year or more before the bottom is in."
You wish. Try about 3-4 years minimum. I wish it wasn't so, but the length and severity of a housing bust is proportional to the length and size of the preceding boom, and this was the mother of all RE booms. 'Nuff said.
"Man, I just wish prices would quit GOING UP where I live."
This must not be in the US then. All US areas are seeing substantial price reductions, regardless of what the Realtwhores say. Also, don't look at median prices as these are skewed when volume drops off in the mid price range. This is a lengthy discussion and I doubt it would do much good to try and explain median price calculations to you.
Go ask an agent or some other RE professional that you TRUST, what the market is actually doing price-wise and I'm sure you'll find it's been going down.
Keep in mind that when people are financially at means end, there is always some extra room due to credit and other options. It is simply a matter of time though. Those who spent more than their incomes will allow will hit the wall sooner or later.
We are still a year or two away from CODE RED. I think we are just at "elevated" now. Housing is still selling for top dollar, even if the market is not growing as fast as it has.
Oh man this spin is getting out of hand. Now median prices are not to be trusted. Oh OK. So we can't trust median prices and we can't trust average prices. We can't trust NAR data. We can't trust zillow data. We can't trust FED data.
So my question is this: if all these numbers are not trusworthy, how do you know there's a crash happening?
Anon 1111, I've bought and sold a few houses in my day. I've also written a few thousand mortgage loans. Just sold one house (primary residence) that I bought in June of 05 for a net of $28,000 more than I paid for it. Yes, I realise most of the multi-cult infested cities are dropping like rocks but..... That's just not the case here, I've been waiting for this moment since 2003, oh no, oh no....
See the Florida article below and tell me thats not code red!
"Housing is still selling for top dollar, even if the market is not growing as fast as it has."
You hit it on the head. Here in SoCal: houses still selling top dollar and ones not are selling for just under asking price. Its just the appreciation is no longer there and its taking longer. As long as lenders are willing to hand a toxic loan to ignorant uneducated buyers, there will be a sale. I know this is not what we wanted to hear but its the truth :-(
One vote for code plaid.
Prices are coming down in Anaheim, Ca, by 15-20%. I'm seeing wishing prices drop from high/mid-600s to low 500s now in the type of house I'm looking for. One house in my neighborhood was reduced in price by $60K yesterday. It'll get there, but it's taking a lot of patience.
Florida seaside condos: Code red
west coast: code red
jew york: ?
massajewsets: ?
jew haven CT: ?
I'm not saying there are'nt a lot of places getting hit hard, all I'm saying is SW Missouri is not one of them.
Code Red my ass. You shit for brains renters, that is what your ass will look like when I'm done kicking it for being such freaking imbeciles. There is no housing crash! It's a fantasy of dirt poor, squalid and jealous wanking renters living in dilapidated, dirty and dishevelled rental pigpen shacks. Most of them aren't even renters they sit at home on moma's sofa jerking off.
honika - SW Missouri? you mean people actually live there? No wonder your an inbred racist fool. Prices going up there because your all a lot dumber than us east and west coasters.
Honica, would you please stop with the antisemitic banter.
yea it isnt quite code red right now. ziprealty's (new?) feature that emails you updates on homes in your "my homes" list is constantly emailing be about status changes...they're going from 'active' to 'inactive'. kinda pissing me off.
though i only put homes in the 'my homes' that i think are well priced (for now anyway) and in good locations, so maybe that is why they are off the market in a week, but still, not a good sign here, NoVa
Someone please check in on Greg Swann and make sure he's OK, and has enough ramen noodles to make it through the housing crash winter.
==================
LOL LOL LOL
TOO FUNNY!
I still pleasure myself to Armageddon.
I wish Iran would start a war. The news is boring again.
I think its turning to code red. One thing I noticed recently is that Yahoo, SFGate, and RGJ.com all had "Real Estate" right on top and easy to find. Now, its buried in the text and hard to spot at first glance.
Houses for sale here in Reno are in price limbo. Some sellers have taken their listings off the market and are trying to rent them out, (one up the street from us did just that) and the others are waiting for that "Spring Bounce" time when they think the buyers will come out in full force.
Prices are frozen hard like last years meal. And when it thaws, they arent going to like what they see.
"honika - SW Missouri? you mean people actually live there? No wonder your an inbred racist fool. Prices going up there because your all a lot dumber than us east and west coasters."
Yes anon, SW Missouri. Nothing but inbred racists as far as the eye can see here...... There's no reason to visit, you may as well let us stupid bastards contend with with the low crime, low pollution, low cost of living, ect.
Hell, making what I make, I'll be lucky to make it through the winter.
I'm not an American but I live in a country that has experienced a real estate bubble recently. I'll give you all a big tip. Go invest your money in the stock market. It's about to boom as the money that once went into real estate now goes into the stock market.
All renting is all bad alla time.
Ya stoopids.
I just hope we don't have to start marking the outside of homes with the number of collapsed, exhausted,cashed out borrowers inside unable to sell or refi there homes.
Let me load up now on consumer stocks!
People don't you see any uptick is nothing more than a dead cat bounce! This ship is sinking, stop rearraging the deck chairs and get in the lifeboat!
It will go into the bond market, not the stock market.
NEW, a mortgage lender just lost 16% of its stock value in after hours trading after reporting "sub prime default" woes
http://tinyurl.com/28w9ab
Everything is happening exactly as we predicted. It's happening slowly but at some point it will probably speed up as the holdouts who finally get that they are going to lose everything pull out of real estate related stock and/or sell their houses for whatever they can get.
Basically there is a crushing weight and a lot of people are holding it up. Once a few more abandon the effort, the remaining will be unable to support the load and KABOOM.
the money is pouring into foreign equities now especially china which is becoming a massive bubble
watch for government intervention there to try to stop it somehow
We know a crash is happening because multiple mortgage lenders have gone out of business in the last few months.
For those claiming CA prices keep going up (if there are actually any left like that)
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20070207_californiafall.htm
Not claiming prices are going up but...houses are still selling for asking price in some parts of SoCal! The general population here is still stupid about the bubble. Still think prices will keep going up. It's a lost cause folks. The people that are not that ignorant, unfortunately a very small minority :-(
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