Anyone who disputes that home prices will crash harder and faster in Phoenix now, just as night follows day, or that massive REIC and trickle-down job loss won't occur, is either a fool, corrupt or both.
Developers took out 2,275 building permits for homes in December, a 55 percent drop from the same period the year before, according to the latest Phoenix Housing Market Letter released Monday by real estate analyst RL Brown.
New home sales also sagged last month, down 26.6 percent from December 2005. For 2006, there were 51,174 new home sales, a 10.9 percent drop from 2005. Also, builders took out 42,460 permits for homes, 33.2 percent fewer than the year prior.
“2006 activity will cause the industry to pause and recognize that housing in this market area has to be affordable,” Brown said. The dramatic run-up in prices during last year’s housing frenzy was not sustainable, he said. Home sellers will need to price homes according to today’s market or withdraw their listings, Brown said. Builders must also be more realistic if they plan on staying in business, he said.
And this from HousingDoom on January numbers which suck too:
Phoenix Home Sales- January Worst Month in Six Years
In spite of repeated assurances by David Lereah that "the worst is behind us," the Phoenix housing market continues it’s downward slide. One of our favorite agents gave us an unofficial "sneak peak" at January’s numbers:
ALL MLS- January 2007
Sold - 3,895
Active- 44,912
Under Contract- 7,027
According to historical MLS data provided by our friend- realtor Jonathan Dalton, this is the slowest January since 2001, and the first month since that time that sales fell below 4,000. Inventory however, has started to pick up again. 44,912 listings is slightly above December’s 44,247.
February 01, 2007
Arizona Housing Swann Dive: Permits down 55%, sales crash 26%. Now comes the massive job loss and crashing prices
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54 comments:
Permits are a leading indicator, but then what would you expect with a huge oversupply? Builders aren't that stupid and they've cut back on future projects. The real question is what will happen in the next six months to reduce unsold inventory? If the Fed can get the money out there, sales will kick in and we might avoid a big crash in residential. Low-end properties are still selling in a couple of weeks, it's the high-dollar homes that sit for months.
The other factor is commercial construction. Where I live it's going gangbusters so any workers idled by the housing slump are immediately picked up as subs on shopping center or office condo projects.
I guess it is ramen noodles and mac n cheese for the realtors this year.
Btw, nice Saguaro, must have been at least 250 YO when it bit it.
that's 11 month supply of inventory, right?
anyone know if the inventory number includes FSBOs?
Too bad there's no accurate source of real price information with incentives and cash back included
KEIF,
A 55% decline in permits is a good thing as far as future prices go. Why would you say now comes the crashing prices?
record high listings + record low sales = price declines no matter what REIC or MSM tell you
in Phoenix, add massive job loss as REIC supported economy tanks as they stop building homes
Meanwhile, 40,000+ unwanted homes are going up in 2007 to add fuel to the fire
I'm surprised permits haven't fallen to near zero. You'd have to be a fool to build in this environment
Yup, the Phoenix market is setting up for a perfect "Swann Dive"...
Here's a real homework assignment: Call a lender and see what the max LTV their willing to offer on a Phoenix home. Remember, as lenders bring back down payments and LTV declines, affordability plummits. And they'll probably want to verify your income-- how much will that shrink the buyer pool???
"Swann Dive"! I liked it so much I just changed the post title
bravo. Another HP term for the glossary
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:
PHOENIX TOXIC HOUSING REPORT or
"HOME OF THE TRAILER PARK BLUES"
starring Greg Swann and supported by a casts of thousands as listed below.
Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its own level.
Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly educated bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy money.This souless mix of carpet-bagging transients, budget seniors,tatooed misfits, real estate grifters, toothless white trash
tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population
center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic
congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry,
Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living
in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the
intelligence charts. The only reason to be here, (temporarily), is if you're making a decent income
(absolute min. 250k per yr). Anything less is not
worth it, as your health, mental well being and personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this
genetic cesspool of half-breeds.
As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, THERE".
KEIF,
I know the HP crowd disputes any data that doesn't conform to their story, but how about posting some data on Phoenix population growth. 45,000 people moved to Phoenix last year alone. Chandler and Gilbert added another 20,000.
Yeah yeah yeah. I know the response from HPers..all illegals. OK they're illegals. They buy homes too or at least rent.
Building 40,000 homes a year for that kind of population growth seems about right.
I like LA's "culture" better than Phoenix's. It rocks.
Regarding Phoenix (and Vegas) population growth - get ready for The Great Reversal, as people flee Phoenix and Vegas for cities who have jobs still.
Don't you get it? Phoenix and Vegas are fake towns, with no real companies to speak of, or real jobs. They're REIC towns. 40%+ of the entire Phoenix economy is tied to home building and selling.
Those days are over. Phoenix will enter its own great depression now.
And yes, don't forget about the millions of unemployed illegals who'll either leave the Phoenix economy and go home (Wal-Mart will never be the same) or start under-cutting other Phoenix jobs (good luck trying to find a non-Mexican at any fast food restaurant), or go on a crime spree to support their families.
Past population growth in this case (to support the REIC) will now lead to massive population contraction as the REIC goes belly-up
L.A. is a real city with real people compared to the Phoenix shithole.
Phoenix, has nothing but a severe case of envy and civic inferiority when it comes to other metropolitan areas, L.A. escpecially, because of the proximity.
KEIF,
The 5th largest city in the country doesn't go away because houses get a little expensive dude. Get a grip man, you're sounding crazy even for you.
Illegals aren't going anywhere either. Quite the opposite they are getting amnesty and the ability to bring in their entire family over legally too. Do you not watch the news at all? Amnesty is a done deal. And your fast food example is silly. Try finding a non-Mexican at a fast food restaurant in NY or LA...are those cities about to fall apart too?
As for Las Vegas, what you just said have been said about Las Vegas for the past 40 years, each time the prediction was wrong. Every decade there is a proclamation that it's over and every decade the population grows 20-30%.
Many small and medium bulders wil go bankrupt. The same goes for lenders.
Maybe 40,000 people moved to Phoenix. How many moved away or died? Being a retirement community, they need to keep boomers coming because of the high deathrates. Boomers won't be moving to Phoenix if they have to pay $400K for a house.
FYI - More people moved out of Florida than moved there in 2006. That's something the REIC doesn't like to publicize. How many of those who moved to Florida were really speculators who only claimed to have their main residence in Florida to save on taxes?
The bottom line is that trillions of dollars will be lost just like the tail end of the dotcom boom.
Back in 1998-2000, people gave up good jobs to become daytraders and everyone was a stock picking genius. From 2002-2005, people gave up good jobs to become RE investors. Everyone who bought property thought they were The Donald. The more things change.....but it's different this time.
Wet Chet - I'll take the corporate HQ's of New York, Chicago, Seattle, Houston, Dallas, St. Louis, Boston, DC, LA, SF etc over that pathetic back-office list anyday
Here's Phoenix's largest employers. Want a job at a grocery store or a call center? Move to Phoenix:
Rank 2005 Rank 2003 Company Employees Headquarters Business in Arizona Year Founded
1 1 Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 23,418 Bentonville, Ark. Discount stores 1962
2 3 Banner Health 15,950 Phoenix Health care 1911
3 7 Bashas' Inc. 13,595 Chandler Grocery stores 1932
4 2 Honeywell International Inc. 13,479 Morristown, NJ Aeorspace Mfg. 1952
5 8 Wells Fargo and Co. 12,259 San Francisco Financial services 1852
6 11 America West Airlines 11,904 Phoenix Airline 1981
7 4 Raytheon Co. 10,300 Waltham, MA Missile mfg. 1951
8 9 Kroger Co. 9,758 Cincinnati Grocery stores 1883
9 5 Intel Corp. 9,525 Santa Clara, CA Semiconductor mfg. 1968
10 6 Albertsons Inc. 9,500 Tolleson Grocery & drugstores 1989
10 18 Home Depot Inc. 9,500 Atlanta Home improvement 1978
12 15 JP Morgan Chase & Co. 8,460 New York Financial services 1799
13 10 Target Corp. 8,261 Minneapolis Discount retailer 1962
14 12 Safeway Inc. 7,546 Pleasanton, CA Grocery stores 1926
15 20 Walgreen Co. 7,100 Deerfield, IL Retail drugstores 1901
16 14 American Express Co. 7,086 New York Financial services 1850
17 16 Pinnacle West Capital Corp. 6,600 Phoenix Electric utility 1985
18 22 Apollo Group Inc. 6,360 Phoenix Educational services 1973
19 13 Qwest Communications Inc 5,800 Denver Telecommunications 1896
20 37 Marriott International 4,850 Bethesda, MD Hotels and resorts 1927
The unexpectedly rapid decline of the nation's housing market will mean an overall drop in construction spending next year, with spillover effects in areas such as job growth and real-estate development.
In a closely watched report expected to be released today, McGraw-Hill Construction will forecast the first decline in overall construction spending since 1991. The company says the value of new construction will decline 1% in 2007 to $668 billion, compared with an expected rise of 1% for 2006 and a 12% increase in 2005. McGraw-Hill said the anticipated decline was due mostly to a 5% fall in construction of single-family homes. But the overall drop also reflects a 3% slide in construction of stores and shopping centers, a component closely tied to population growth and home-building trends.
"Single-family housing has fallen more steeply than what we had anticipated and the correction is taking place faster," says Robert Murray, vice president at McGraw-Hill Construction, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. The industry "no longer has single-family housing to bolster total construction."
"We've already had the hard landing," Angelo Mozilo, chief executive officer of Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest home-mortgage lender, said in a conference call this week. Mr. Mozilo said he expects the mortgage market to "tread water" in 2007.
In the Phoenix area, construction accounts for 10% of salaried jobs, "and they are pretty good-paying jobs," says Jay Q. Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University. He sees the slowdown in the home-building sector being offset somewhat by strength in health care, schools, convention centers and highways. He cautions, however, that local governments that rely heavily on fees garnered from home builders could face fiscal crises. Several municipalities in his area, he says, are considering instituting or augmenting fees on commercial developers to make up for the projected shortfall.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/propertyreport/newsandtrends/20061030-frangos.html
The Great Reversal? Phoenix has been growing for 30-plus years. Short of an Ice Age sending everyone back to Chicago or a sudden upheaval causing California to become affordable (not to mention sane) it's not happening.
Some of you are so focused on real estate prices over the last couple of years that you've got no clue what existed before, much less what might happen.
Knowing people who work with folks going through corporate relocations, there are a helluva lot more people coming to Phoenix than leaving. Been that way since the early to mid-70s.
Maybe 40,000 people moved to Phoenix.
You can't be serious, can you? 45,000 NET population increase, ie including people who moved away or died.
And that was the city of Phoenix itself not including Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Cave Creek etc.
1) Construction is down 55% and housing sales have plummeted. So hundreds of thousands of jobs connected to homebuilding and home selling are going away in Phoenix (realtors, appraisers, mortgage brokers, lenders, builders, etc)
2) There are no Phoenix companies who'll hire hundreds of thousands of unemployed people, as well as the expected mass of people moving to Phoenix. Even Wal-Mart will be over-employed, and forced to cut labor.
3) Phoenix's call-center economy, which drove growth before the REIC took over, has also imploded - thank you India.
4) Corporate relocations are unattractive as Phoenix's #1 selling point - low cost of living - got thrown out of the window with the housing run-up
5) So do the math - people will have to move elsewhere in search of work. Phoenix is toast. Great town to play golf, go to the spa, mountain bike, but jobs? Adios.
The days of Phoenix growing are OVER. O.V.E.R. Phoenix is a company town, and the steel mill just closed down - the steel mill being the REIC. 40% of Phoenix jobs are directly at risk with the housing implosion, and likely another 10% to 20% ripple effect (dry cleaners, home depot salesmen, etc)
Real Estate drove Phoenix's expansion. The Great Real Estate Crash will drive Phoenix's depression.
It is what it is.
How are you calculating GROWTH? I'm curious, as a few friends of mine who are RE agents have purchased about 10 houses each that they planned on flipping. What they ALL have in common is that they LIED about the loan. They did not claim it as an investment property, they had other friends give information so that it looked like the house was being lived in. Thus they did not have to get an investor loan with 20% down, they could get a traditional loan with 0% down.
If growth is based off this then it it severely flawed.
Fact>>>
Largest private employer in state of Arizona: Wal-Mart Corp. with greatest concentration in metropolitan Phoenix.
Fact>>>
About half of U.S.Wal-Mart employees have dependents that are Medicaid beneficiaries.
Fact>>>
Wal-Mart profits directly subsidized by US taxpayers thru Medicaid benefits.
Fact>>>
Wal-Mart shoppers, a true reflection of American stupids. Buyers of Chinese crap, processed foodstuffs and corporate welfare stooges.
Word of the Day = PALOOKAVILLE.
Used by Marlon Brando in the classic film, On the Waterfront, as in: "all I got was a one way-ticket to PALOOKAVILLE".
Perfect description for Phoenix, AZ., world's biggest concetration of dead-enders, Wal-Mart groupies, real-estate chiselers, illiterate racist right-wing wackos and home to Greg "Palooka" Swann.
i have a love/hate relationship with phoenix. to the LA crowd that finds it so easy to trash, i have to laugh. live where you want, end of story. the truth is that the number one source of net migration to phoenix is from southern california (LA and SD) per the DMV. so there must be some draw.
regarding the housing crash, it is still a slow moving train wreck. and it will take years to be back to normal, whatever normal is.
and lastly, phoenix has the best job market in the country, 'nuff said. i normally agree with most of what keith says, but i strongly disagree that there is anything wrong with being a "back-office-city".
those back office jobs pay well and create no industrial pollution other than car exhausts from the millions of commuters. the supposed cache of HQ cities has more to do with their connections to other world-class cities than their relatively minor high-paid employee headcount.
phoenix will continue to grow, with the good, and with the trash.
thank you India.
I was waiting for someone to mention this. So on top of Mexicans, Jews, Bush, Walmart, Fox News and China, we can now add India to the list of scapegoats for all of this country's woes.
Anyone else?
A good friend of mine from college works for the government. He was in Denver for a few years. The path to higher positions as he tells it was limited in Denver for his field so he looked elsewhere and ended up in Phoenix.
He's been there about 6 months and likes it, so does his wife who is an accountant. Both of them are well educated and his wife is one of those I'd rather starve than buy food at Walmart types (she's from California, 'nuff said). She got a job almost the second they arrived. Neither of them have anything to do with housing. I visited a while back and went out with some of their new friends. Same kind of peopel as us, late 20s, college grads, professionals.
I'm entertaining the idea of moving there as well. I'm a consultant so I can live anywhere. The thought of 70 degrees in January does sound appealing and house prices are still quite reasonable compared to where I am now.
It seems like a lot of the Phoenix hate is from LA types who hate anything non-LA to begin with and have an especially big hard on for Phoenix for some reason. I'll bet most of them have never even stepped foot in Ariona. I've spent plenty of time in LA and would rather live in Alaska than anywhere near there. I don't care how close to the beach you are.
Phoenix is no different than Dallas or Atlanta. Huge sprawling metro where everyone is from somewhere else. That means a mix of the good, the bad and the ugly. I know it doesn't compare to LA where everyone is perfect and everyone drives a 500SL, but oh well, I think I could live.
geeski said:
"and lastly, phoenix has the best job market in the country, 'nuff said"
Are you kidding? Take it from someone wht truly knows:
Best job market in the country is NYC.
If you can't make it there, go to Phoenix and join the other third-stringers. also-rans and has- beens.
Its well known in the corporate and recruiting world that Phoenix employees and job prospectors are low-caliber mediocre performers.
As for the California influx,just tawdry underperforming refugees who can't cut it anymore in the top state of the country. Phoenix & Arizona is the perfect dumping ground for these plebeian losers and washouts.
Well, gee ... the REIC.
They're the ones who used their mind-melds to convince people that they actually wanted to buy a house.
I mean, if Lereah told you to jump off the nearest bridge, clearly you would do it. Right????
Phoenix is toast. Great town to play golf, go to the spa, mountain bike, but jobs? Adios.
QWEEFIE,
Phoenix metro is 3.8 mil
On hotjobs there are 7100 jobs for greater Phoenix of 3.8 million people. That is a ratio of 1 job per 535 residents
Compare that to other cities
Atlanta: 1 job per 462
Dallas: 1 job per 600
Miami: 1 job per 1011
Philly: 1 job per 644
Granted this is not the most scientific survey but still your assertion that there are no jobs is untrue.
Population Stats here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_by_population
"Jobs" in this case referred to "needs high school degree" or "must be US citizen" or "makes enough to afford a median house"
"Wal Mart Employee" is a job, but so is "Nuclear Engineer".
Yes, Phoenix has a lot of jobs. Call Center Employee. REIC pawn. Burger flipper. Hooker. But real cities have real jobs where people can afford real homes. Phoenix is not one of those cities by comparison.
12:12 anon - you're an idiot.
reference some data before you make silly-ass statements. CNN, Money, WSJ all predict Phoenix and Vegas (sadly) to have the best job growth.
And personal income expected to rise 7.3% for Phoenix, with job growth at 3.6% (revised down due to housing). NYC...who cares.
http://tinyurl.com/3bx7sv
I would imagine those predictions are now laughably worthless, now that the housing-supported economies of Vegas and Phoenix are imploding
QWEEFIE,
Which is it?
First you say
Phoenix is toast. Great town to play golf, go to the spa, mountain bike, but jobs? Adios.
then you say
Yes, Phoenix has a lot of jobs
Make up your mind already dude.
Suck it - hey I love NYC too, just don't want to live there in some walk up crap-hole that cost 4K per month to rent. I was surprised to see that the median family income (buying power) is almost twice as high in Phoenix as NYC. Go figure.
Phoenix, AZ
Population: 1,441,718
Compare Phoenix to Top 10 Best Places
Financial City stats
Median family income
(per year) $52,058
Family purchasing power
(annual, cost-of-living adjusted) $45,947
Sales tax 8.10%
State income tax rate
(highest bracket) 5.04%*
State income tax rate
(lowest bracket) 2.87%*
Auto insurance premiums
(Average for the state) $2,588
Job growth %
(2000-2005) 8.73%
Now for NYC
New York, NY
Best big cities rank: 10
Population: 8,143,200
Compare New York to Top 10 Best Places
Financial City stats
Median family income
(per year) $45,788
Family purchasing power
(annual, cost-of-living adjusted) $26,575
Sales tax 8.38% 6.55%
State income tax rate
(highest bracket) 6.85%*
State income tax rate
(lowest bracket) 4.00%*
Auto insurance premiums
(Average for the state) $3,165
Job growth %
(2000-2005) 4.82%
final thought - free country, live accordingly, whether NYC, LA, SF or anywhere else.
peace
Breaking News: See article that follows.
Eloy is appx. 150 miles of the US-Mexico border, so this appears like some Minutemen type white Anglo scum as per description and not Mexican coyote gangs. Lots of scum in AZ!
"Suspects sought in attack on undocumented immigrants"
Sarah Muench
The Arizona Republic
Feb. 1, 2007 02:29 PM
Authorities are searching for four men who attacked 12 undocumented immigrants, killed an Eloy man and shot a 12-year-old boy, Pinal County Sheriff's Office officials said.
Authorities say David Norris Jr. was driving a vehicle containing a 12 illegal immigrants Saturday in an Eloy farm field when four heavily armed men in a white full-size van began firing on them.
The four men were all wearing berets, camouflage pants and shirts, authorities said.
advertisement
During the attack, Norris, 46, was fatally shot and a 12-year-old boy was shot in the leg, authorities said. The boy was reported Wednesday to be in stable condition at University Medical Center in Tucson.
A possible third victim was also shot, but has not been found.
The four suspects were wearing military-style berets, one red and three black, and green camouflage pants and shirts, authorities said. They drove a white full-sized van.
Three of the suspects are described as White and one Hispanic, who spoke limited Spanish, authorities said.
Anyone with information can call the Pinal County Sheriff's Office Homicide Division at 1-800-358-4636 or 1-520-866-5105.
geski said:
"2:12 anon - you're an idiot.
reference some data before you make silly-ass statements. CNN, Money, WSJ all predict Phoenix and Vegas (sadly) to have the best job growth.
And personal income expected to rise 7.3% for Phoenix, with job growth at 3.6% (revised down due to housing). NYC...who cares.
http://tinyurl.com/3bx7sv"
-----------------------------------
Calling me an idiot just exposes your inability to accept facts, reality and as a prospective Phoenix job applicant.
Your Phoenix stats and opinions are worthy of Wal-Mart and Whattaburger
Human resource strategies.
Bottom line, no talented qualified and competitive employee/job seeker, chooses Phoenix as a career destination. The ones that do, see their gross error and exit quickly and others see it as a Siberia posting while paying dues and planning their escape.
A mediocre destination for mediocrities.
Having lived in AZ for almost 5 years on two seperate occassions I can vouch for the great standard of living and that there are jobs moving there. Even though there is a Democrat for a governor she is actively seeking companies to relocate to AZ. I met well educated Engineers, MBA's and doctorate educated people. Those who say it is white trash are stereotyping and yes there are that type in AZ, but they tend to be in the rural, downtown or older parts of AZ. Scottsdale, Chandler and Gilbert are all growing areas with safe neighborhoods, great schools and awesome parks and shopping areas. No graffiti, nice new freeways, a no nonsense Sherrif and a lot of other things that make it a better place to live than CA. The weather is the only negative, but it is a lot easier to walk inside the A/C than shovel your car out of snow.
Jobs in Phoenix.. the point is what happens in the near future. The Arizona Department of Economic Security (can't find the link) has predicted that starting in 2007, Phoenix net population will DECLINE until 2050!!
Ok, so much for population growth driving the economy.
Major investment banks (Morgan, for example) have calculated that 30 to 40 percent of Phoenix jobs are related to new home construction.
NOT home resales, NOT engineering, NOT officework. It doesn't matter what they pay. Those jobs will be getting scarce in the next few months.
It won't take much of a drop for Phoenix to experience unemployment above 10 percent. In 1982, as I recall when I lived there, unemployment peaked at 11 percent.
I still remember the headlines in 1982; every couple of weeks another company would announce, "Motorola lays off 1800", etc. Good times.
Oh, housing prices declined big time then, too... and net in migration slowed, but I can't recall how much.
Things are much worse today in Phoenix than they were in 1982.
According to the Wall Street Journal article referenced at theoildrum.com, Mexico will likely stop exporting oil to the US by the end of 2008. Their main oil field, Cantarell, is in severe decline.
Phoenix will of course have no problems. After all, look at all the smart land use decisions, and all the mass transit they have there.
I remember how well things went in Phoenix during the 1973 Arab oil embargo.
Boy, it was so easy to get around... that's just the kind of forward-looking city Phoenix is.
This year, or three years, Phoenix is done for.
And I speak as a man who owns property in the Phoenix downtown (inherited).
Benjamin
pure and simple economics.
45,000 people moved to Phoenix last year alone. Chandler and Gilbert added another 20,000.
----------
Not EVERY one of those 45,000 bodies amke enough to buy houses to sustain the crazy price levels.
fight the good fight Keith!!! You are doing God's work!
All those housing related jobs in
Phoenix are illegals...now maybe they will all just go home. Sounds good to me!
Small Hat in Scottsdale
Thanks annonymous. I agree with most of what you say. I'm always amazed at people's ignorance. I gues the negativity is just their nature since they apparently are unhappy with their lives. I've traveled a lot and have always been amazed at how content and happy so many people are living in shit holes with nothing around the world that would envy living in a place as "horrible" as Arizona. Guess it really is all in the attitude.
Having been in the AF and lived in Asia, Europe, Saudi, traveled in central and south America, the carribean, US/Canada, I can say that there are worst places to live. I have no problem with those who rent. I met many professionals who chose to rent instead of buy. Some friends of mine (nurse/engineer) rented for forty years in Phoenix and then bought a condo in 1995 in Scottsdale and said, "Wow, why didn't we do it sooner. If we had bought in 1950....the prices then" But the invested well, saved and so were no worse off.
I guess a lot of posters here have that typical American attitude that "Only America is worth living in and extend that to their select small communities like San Diego or such. Please, anyone who has traveled knows that there are many, many wonderful places to live that others would never consider living. My friends wife came from Italy and hated it there! Loves the Bay area and would NEVER consider returning to the Bellagio..I love that part of Italy.
So you are right. People get pre-concieved ideas, make their own out-come and then try to only use data that support their limited, bigoted view.
And as my wife always said, "If you are rich...everywhere is paradise and if you are poor...even Santa Barbara is hell!"
But still, permits down 55%, so what? Isn't that the point? To return to the mean? So are you saying getting back to normal is bad? A disaster? 2006 was still one of the four best years for sales in Phoenix's history. In the recession driven era they build 24,000 houses and the population was half. So now that it has doubled, wouldn't say 45,000 be considered the mean? And how will Arizona moving into the number one spot for growth affect that number? Once prices return to earth I imagine growth will resume.
Still, Keith just likes to egg people on about Phoenix because he hates it. I guess that means if he hated Santa Barbara we'd all have to be sheeple with him? I don't think we can ever really know what Keith really thinks. He probably rents out his dig he owned in Phoenix and plans on returning to it someday from London when his gig is up. He secretly loves it but knows to drive traffic he has to play the devil's advocate on a lot of issues.
Phoenix:
Pros:
Beautiful landscape
Great weather (except hot summer - get out)
Resorts
Golf
Nightlife
Restaurants
Women
Mountains
Transportation system
New and nice
Central airport
Against
Illegals
Terrible REIC dominated government
Horrible urban planning
Sprawl
Pollution
Strip mall culture
Cost of living (used to be cheap - no longer)
Fake people / Posers
Consumption / greed / over-retailed
REIC dominated
Lack of corporate hq's / fortune 500
Horrible schools / education system
Uneducated population
No ocean or beach
No center / urban core / pulse
Car culture
Lack of quality culture / arts
Oh, don't forget that the housing crash will forever change Phoenix. A growing city will contract, the economy is tanking, the state budget will be devastated, and hundreds of thousands of jobs will disappear
Keith said,
"Yes, Phoenix has a lot of jobs. Call Center Employee. REIC pawn. Burger flipper. Hooker. But real cities have real jobs where people can afford real homes. Phoenix is not one of those cities by comparison."
So what are real cities? How many jobs in say NY city are not related to say flipping burgers, service jobs, real estate, construction, government, etc? How is it different? Just because an elite ruling class like the Rockefellers might live there? And what do all the wall street types do but live paracistically off the workers?
How many cities have those "big employers" you dream about? Small business makes up most of America's jobs. You want big employers? You to China...there there are companies that employ 200,000 in one factory where the worker lives, breathes, dies, for 30 cents an hour. And we know what happens without small, diversified economies. Steel mill goes bust...entire community goes bust.
I had posted yesterday a question/response to the "real city" thing but it vanished. But back to that post, what makes Phoenix less real than LA? Miami? San Diego? Santa Barbara? San Francisco? Boise?
How are european cities any more real? Because inefficient Italian towns and cities which can't compete with europe let alone china and which look like museums are they less real than Vegas? Lots of european communities are dependant on farming, tourism, tourism, tourism. Venice is a ghost town by night, is it no longer a real town? And London? Because the "Queen" lives there and it is a financial center...and that means parasitical charging interest, skimming fees off investments, peoples stocks, pensions, derivatives, money changing, money laundering for corrupt Russians, drugs, prositution, tourism, etc.
How can you call any place that people live "not real" that would mean an illusion, a myth, invalidate all those who work, play, have lives, families, places of worship, culture, art, gardens, etc. Just because you have issues with Phoenix doesn't make it less real or that it will go away any time soon. Yes, great centers die and disappear, look at Babylon or Luxor, etc. But they still are real cities with real people with real problems and real assets.
Illegals
- Come on KEIF. This could be said about any city. You have never been to LA I take it.
Terrible REIC dominated government
- If you say so. But again, show me one city over 1 million people without a corrupt govt.
Horrible urban planning
- The city is a perfecr grid. You can never get lost. I'll take that over the nightmare that is Boston.
Sprawl
- Again, you've never been to LA or Atlanta or Dallas or Houston or well pretty much every city in the country built after 1850.
Pollution
- Hate to sound like a broken record but...LA
Strip mall culture
- Aside from NY and Boston I don't know of a city that doesn't
Cost of living (used to be cheap - no longer)
- Compared to NY, LA, SD it is still a bargain.
Fake people / Posers
- LA LA LA LA
Consumption / greed / over-retailed
REIC dominated
- Greed? Have you been to NY my friend? And since when is greed a bad thing?
Lack of corporate hq's / fortune 500
- So what? Fortune 500 companies employ less than 10% of people in the country.
Horrible schools / education system
- Oh please. Just like in every city, there are good and bad schools. Phoenix is no different. Good areas have good schools, bad areas have bad schools.
Uneducated population
- Compared to who? 15.07% of Phoenix has a college degree. NY's number is 15.82%. Chicago is at 15.5%. WOW!!! What a difference.
No ocean or beach
- I hate the beach. That is a plus for me. On the other hand 2 hrs away from ski resorts.
No center / urban core / pulse
- Not one big one, but Scottsdale and Tempe have their own little thing going.
Car culture
- LA LA LA LA
Lack of quality culture / arts
- LA has such wonderful culture.
Only losers, washouts and third-stringers live and choose Phoenix, the last desperate stop for lost Ameri-cun half-breed white trash.
I resent all the people who claim only looser live in Phoenix. There are losers everywhere, and winners. Most of the people I have ever know in Phoenix were hardworking, caring, descent, and yes, educated people. Your sterotyping is disgusting.
There are a lot of great musicians, artists, poets, authors, actors, professiors, scientists, doctors, nurses, professionals, teachers, fireman, policeman, clergy, white collar/blue collar, even illegals who are descent, hard working, sucessful, great human beings.
Get over it. If you hate Phoenix as a city, as a culture, as a state of mind, great. Find your bliss, live your life, love your neighbor where every you find a place to rest your head.
Just get over the need to denigrate people. Psychologists say those types do that to make themselves feel better about themselves. Stop hating yourself and you'll find the world a whole lot better of a place to live.
half a million at the phoenix open today 75 degrees temperature, drunken revelry in snotsdale, super bowl at the glendale stadium, in january at phoenix university, drunken revelry at the dog track!low class?
booring 1
as the old saying went,"take it downtown" or in phx, where? all the way to palm springs and alburqurque on broadway? or buckeye? or van buren?
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