990 Snow Lily Ave
Galt, CA 95632
Total Loss: $125,168
Percent Loss: 23.6%
Asking Price: $405,800
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 2
Sq. feet:1998
Listing History:
Down 11.6% from $458,850 On 09-23
Down 8.8% from $445,085 On 10-21
Down 5.0% from $427,100 On 11-24
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2004-06-25 for $341,000
Sold on 2006-08-29 for $530,968
MLS# 60106931
Google Maps
January 09, 2007
Think home prices never crash? Check out Sacramento's "Flippers in Trouble". Oh, man, this is ending badly...
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18 comments:
Dude! Those stats are harsh.
How come Suzanne isn't picking up her cell?
Look for "RTC II--The Sequel" coming soon to a neighborhood near you, as the Feds gear up a massive response to the ensuing real estate bust.
For those old enough to remember "RTC I--Nightmare on Main Street", this federal agency was set up to provide for an orderly liquidation of the hundreds of billions in properties with which the banks and S&Ls were stuck in the late '80s/early '90s.
They did a great job of unloading worthless, uninhabitable properties (after dealing off all the GOOD stuff to their insider buddies) via auction to speculators.
This time, the numbers will be about 500 percent greater (my estimate: about $3 trillion or so in foreclosed/abandoned/unfinished properties), all funded by the taxpayer of course.
Look forward to it.
Galt is 20-30 miles south of sacramento. No way in hell its worth 1/2 of what sac comps are worth. This house would be a hard sell at under $100 a sqft. The rendering plants aren't quite the pay masters they used to be y'know.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
Typical hype. One house. One market. One desperate seller. For every example of a massive discount I'm sure HP readers can show examples for the opposite viewpoint.
As the annonymous said, Galt is not a major city. I don't discount that home values in California are dropping in the fringe areas, or in places like Las Vegas or Phoenix, but if I post a car bought at auction prices from a repo dealer does that reflect the cost of buying that car in the normal market place?
In my neighborhood here in Austin the new homes are selling for $100,000 more than they were selling for in June of 2005, does that mean all the homes in Austin have risen in price? NO, some have actually fallen depending on the area.
Still searching for those bargain homes in Phoenix and haven't found them yet. Been offered a management job in Mesa and not sure I want to move back to Phoenix but the opportunity is tempting for my career even though I love Austin now and know that returning to the Valley of the Sun would only be for one or two years since it isn't where I want to live forever.
Would I buy in Phoenix? At the right price but am realistic to know that I'll never pay 1995 prices to move back there even with a 30% correction.
Give us something to really chew on instead of hype.
This looks chewable to me. What's the debt on this property? Is this a potential renter with a mortgage?
Foxwoodlief,
Excellent analogy with the repo car.
I'll bet if you look hard enough you'll find a home in Galt that was sold in 2005 for 20% below market because of a nasty divorce, sudden death or something like that and was then sold again late last year for $70K more than previous purchase price. Does that mean Galt values are skyrocketing? No. It's an isolated example.
One off examples like this don't prove anything one way or the other.
Keith knows this but it's part of his game, let him play it.
Sacramento is FULL of flippers in hell. Did you not go to the website and see the facts?
Some of these look strange (or perhaps I am misunderstanding something). I found one home with the following info.
Last Prev Sale was on 11-3-2006 for $301,276. It says it is now listed at $208,900. Is is likely the flipper is giving up $90K after only two months? Why would they do that?
I was checking the MLS in my area, when I came accross a listing where the asking price was 400k more than comps in the area. I went to zillow and the zestimate was 350k lowere than the asking price. You know we have a problem when zillow comes in lower than the asking price. So I went back to the listing to check days on the market.......4 days as of yesterday. I wonder if this house was previously on the market and pulled off for the slow season and relisted at the fist of the year. Any how these people are so out of touch with reality. The home is in a working class neighborhood where the median income is around 50k, what type of ass thinks that they can ask more than any homes in the area and get it?
" Is is likely the flipper is giving up $90K after only two months? Why would they do that?"
You can't give up what you never had. It was all on paper.
Actually it's more likely the flipper has the $90K in his pocket instead of the house. OK perhaps not that drastic but cash back could offset things slightly. What gets me is that all these houses are still for sale, and have been for some time. I just sold a house in Auburn, and when Zillow said it was "worth" $545 I couldn't get an offer at $500. We *barely* sold at $475. Since then Zillow adjusted to $490, and I'd bet you couldn't get $450 today judging by MLS# 60101526. (Go to the Jan 6 FIT post, it's broken down into areas and has more listings.)
"One off examples like this don't prove anything one way or the other.
Keith knows this but it's part of his game, let him play it."
Like another poster said, why don't you take a nice long look at the site that Keith is referring to. There are literally hundreds of listings on the site that are underwater.
"Last Prev Sale was on 11-3-2006 for $301,276. It says it is now listed at $208,900. Is is likely the flipper is giving up $90K after only two months? Why would they do that?"
Some of these could be fishy. It could be that they got a huge cash back at close (even though that usually ends up being fraud) and the buyer thought they could get a better return somewhere else with the mortgage rate, or were going to use the money to acquire additional properties. But I agree with you...this seems very peculiar and it's hard to know what the person's motivation was to turn this around so quickly at such a low price. The only other thing I can think of was that the buyer purchased at too high of a price, realized after the transaction closed that the market was either going worse or that the buyer thinks it will get much, much worse, and is willing to take a big hit on the property because they've already made a bunch of money flipping properties over the past few years.
ANONYMOUS " looks strange"
Many times the "last sale" posted is actually the amount that the bank foreclosing on the property has on its books with some padding built in. It is not always a true market sale , especially when you see non rounded figures like in this case. That is always a tipoff.
In any case to deny that Sacramento values are currently taking a huge haircut is just plain putting your head in the sand. The rest of the huge bubble areas are following suit. All the bulls need to do is take someones income (real not stated) multiply that by 3.5 to 5 dependent on area and lifestyle and that is what home they can afford at that time. California is overpriced and either wages goe up dramatically or housing comes down - simple economics. Which is more likely? Or being that we are more and more becoming The People's Republic of Mexfornistan we can have multiple families / incomes in one SFR for the good of the Motherland!
still think the doggie is not worth more than 175,000 cash, even with markets ability to stay irrational longer than my solvency,already had to vote with my feet, a thing that may not still be posible?
The People's Republic of Mexfornistan we can have multiple families / incomes in one SFR for the good of the Motherland!
Why not? If 2 families pool their money and buy a house together, all the power to them. Asians have been doing this for decades.
Grandinqisitor said:
The homebuilder stocks have turned down. DR Horton comes out today and blows away expectations, on the down side.
COVERAGE REITERATED: DR Horton (DHI) reiterated by JMP Securities. Reiterated rating Mkt Outperform.
I agree this is going to be an interesting year.
DR Horton: We are getting cancelations like crazy. We are going to make less $$ in 2007.
JMP Securites: Buy Buy buy
This weirdness in the market you just could not make up!
Yes annonymous. I sure wish I could go out and get that super bargain basement price in the best location in the best cities in America...still waiting.
My wife worked for a BK attorney (represented the banks etc, not the debtor) and for 14 years could produce a list of houses, cars, boats, etc they took and sold for as low as six cents on the dollar. If I showed that list would it be a true reflection of what the average Phoenician paid for those items? Surely not.
If I ran up a list of properties bought in late 2004-late 2005 would all of them show a decline? Maybe most but there are places where prices are still higher today than in 2005 like parts of Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans (maybe not for long with the violence and another hurricane season getting near) to name a few. I'm sure others can list places they've seen small rises as well.
Kind of like employment too. In some towns some fields are in such high demand that they can't find workers and if I listed all those fields one might think moving to some podunk might be smart because look at all those jobs, but then that place still may have 6% unemployment in other fields so which is it, a bad labor market or a good one?
Depends on which end of the market you are on. Same with foreclosures, cars, boats, etc., numbers without context mean nothing. Even in Iraq we forget how many millions died in WWII and try to describe that conflict in apocalyptic terms.
There has to be a correction one way or the other but doom and gloom? For many who overpaid, yes, for the rest, life as usual.
I've never felt sorry for Californians and their mania to pay $1000 a sq ft for a shack. Neither do I feel sorry for someone who went out and paid $100 an ounce more for gold a few months back than they could today, or shorted a stock that went up, or bought a stock that went down. People invest thousands in cars that depreciate the moment they drive them off the lot and think nothing of throwing away $50-80,000 for two cars every five years and then cry if a house goes down $100,000?
Perspective please.....
Somebody made $180K on this thing before selling to the Greater Fool!
Gotta love it!
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