January 12, 2007

Some terribly ugly housing news from Phoenix Arizona as investors flee like cockroaches

Sales off 40%, prices tumbling as the Ponzi Scheme ends, investors scrambling for their lives, foreclosures mounting, desperation and panic setting in.

Yup, that's sure one healthy housing market! Greg Swann researched it!

Like here in Britain, people in Phoenix were buying homes regardless of the fundamentals simply because they were betting on future price appreciation. Once that became dubious, the rush for the exits was swift and brutal. As it will be here in Britain eventually.

Here's the latest ASU housing report. Bravo for some refreshing housing honesty from ASU and Jay Butler. Must not be getting the big REIC checks like Harvard's Corrupt Joint Center for Housing Studies.

The rapid growth of sales activity and prices of the last few years has been due largely to the ever-increasing involvement of investors in the market.

Thus, the slowdown in the investor market can be a relevant reason for the overall market slowdown and the increase in trouble properties.

Many investors have found it increasingly difficult to rent and are trying to sell their homes before they lose them to foreclosure or to sell them to lock in any appreciation.

Another source of trouble properties are those households, in anticipation of continued appreciation, that bought more home than they could afford and probably used non-traditional financing to acquire it.

Thus, confronting financial issues, these households are trying to sell in order to obtain some appreciation and/or to avoid foreclosure.

"Thus, many of the market issues of 2006 and potentially 2007 can be attributed to individuals, trying to secure their futures, who got emotionally involved through believing in constant success and appreciation," said Butler.

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

They should move to Las Vegas, I hear ditchdiggers make like $89,000/yr!

Uncertain Buyer said...

Keep the information flowing. Looks like some Realtors are saying the Housing Bubble is over because traffic to HB sites is slowing. If It Bleeds It Leads - The Death of Bad News?

There is a Housing Correction starting in Canada and the Blogs here are just getting started.

Anonymous said...

Kona Report

When California and Arizona sneeze, Hawaii catches cold. Vacationing here on the Big Island - I will try to take some photos of the literally thousands of "for sale" signs here - it seems that every vacation home of "mainlanders" is for sale. . .the locals at restaurants here tell me that business is WAY off for January - the usually busy season (by the way it was 82F here in Kona today). . .living the good life because I am renting for $1500 a month!!! . . .Hawaii will be the next disaster zone. . .they were late to the party, but will be hurt anyway, because "growth" is about the only business around here - and tourism.

Anonymous said...

The funniest part is that the "investors" not only own shoddily-built crapboxes - they're shoddily-built crapboxes in Phoenix. Ha ha ha ha ha. Enjoy the dirt view with that 100k haircut.

Anonymous said...

Is Greg Swann still saying everything is great or is he saying "would you like fries with that"...

Anonymous said...

I'm willing to bet if you go research all of Jay Butler's quotes for the last 5 years that he reads like David Lereah...

Anonymous said...

Said: "If it leads it bleeds"

That's a bogus article, because it only tracks sites that have installed "their" html tracking code onto their pages...

Anonymous said...

"They should move to Las Vegas, I hear ditchdiggers make like $89,000/yr!"

Define ditch diggers?
A good friend of mine used to make $100k a year digging ditches 20 years ago.
He invoiced by the yard, and used to dig by hand where you couldn't get a machine in, ie cables in the ground or area too small for a machine.

Anonymous said...

all that and yet prices have fallen....a whole....4%!!!

WOW!!

Anonymous said...

Greg swann has found a new job. He is the fellow at kmart who turns the blue light on and off.

Anonymous said...

I thought I saw Greg Swann down on Van Buren offering his services for $25

Guy's gotta make a living somehow

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Greg Swann, anyone else notice his listings are starting to look a little familiar??

What ever happened to the hottest market in the country?? I thought it was a great time to buy AND sell!

Swann's losing his shirt if not this year then next. His most prominent listing will be his own home.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its own level. Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly educated bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living. This souless mix of transients, budget seniors, real estate grifters, white trash tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population center that masquarades as a metropolis but is really one big cow town. A bleak landscape with terrible weather and bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate food,and dumbed down citizenry, Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator of American cities.
As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"there is no there, there".

Paige Turner said...

Regarding: "anticipation of continued appreciation."

This is the problem with all bubble markets: People rush in to buy the fad item because prices are going up. Fundamentals don't matter during the buying frenzy.

Unfortunately, it's never "different this time." The laws of physics always win in the end.

Goodbye Phoenix!

Anonymous said...

They should move to Las Vegas, I hear ditchdiggers make like $89,000/yr!

Close. I don't know about ditchdiggers, but the guy who holds the "SLOW" sign at a construction sight makes $36.14 ($72K a year) in Las Vegas. Here are some other pay rates.

A journeyman bricklayer will now get $36.23 an hour in Clark County. Journeyman carpenters will get $42.57 in Clark County. Iron workers will get $49.49 in Clark. The base hourly wage for a flagman is $36.14 in Clark.

http://tinyurl.com/yglvgv

County Prosecutors are among the highest paid in the country at $112,000.
http://tinyurl.com/ykkbck

Average salary for a fireman is $100,000K in Las Vegas. Some make $200,000 with overtime.
http://tinyurl.com/yec9yf

Some dealers make $100K. The average is $70K.
http://tinyurl.com/yzuntf

Valets? Not quite $100K but $60-$70K for parking cars...not too shabby and most of it is tax free. Plus of course the "extras" like referal money from strip clubs and hookers which don't show up in BLS "median income" statistics.
http://tinyurl.com/y8wxet

What about the nurses in Las Vegas? Pay in the top 25% of the countr y at $56,800 a year compared to $49,000 nationally.
http://www.nvnurses.com/

Yup nothing but $8 an hour jobs in this town. Nobody could possibly affod to own a home here.

Anonymous said...

even with 100k off on prices say 350,000 not 450,000 who the hell is gonna buy these houses theres way more houses than people even at 200,000 i still dont know who would buy

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Butler is a SHILL for the REIC. He is now chaninging his tune a bit - but he was calling bottom after bottom..

Anonymous said...

Read the first paragraph --- With 4620 sales recorded in December... this is the lowest level of activity for 2006 and the lowest for December since 4785 were recorded in 2000.

Am I the only one that thinks that 4620 is lower than 4785?

Anonymous said...

If you want to check Jay Butler's reports over time, they are here:

http://www.poly.asu.edu/news/

You have to read through the list- you will find them around the 10th of every month.

I wasn't happy with Butler in his December report. His numbers look much rosier than usual as he decided to use ANNUAL numbers instead of MONTHLY, (end of year and all of that) The month of December was down 2% (he used the annual number, which is up) - but you have to do your own math, he doesn't mention it.

Anonymous said...

f the pay scale there will shift as competition for jobs sets in. I can't believe nurses make only 50K there. Here in LA most that I know make $100K.

Any source other than "someone I know"?

Anonymous said...

I dislike Las Vegas and so do most of my friends. I have future plans to avoid it, as do most of my friends.

As a Las Vegas resident I thank you and your friends.

Anonymous said...

PHX, LV, used to be fun American WEST towns to live in. That has not been the case since the early 1980s. They have 110% gone to sh't in the last 15 years.

the sh't transformation was gradual at first but acheived parabolic momemntum much like nasdaq chart during Dotcoms.

Anonymous said...

Las Vegas, the Geograhy of Nowhere=
aimless disconnected inhabitants who don't know who who their grandparents are,(many never even met mommy or daddy), think eating at Olive garden is gourmet dining ,that buying clothes at Target is fashionable and working in casinos/related is a "career".
Undisputably THE destination for losers and half-breeds who can't make it elsewhere in search of "home".

Anonymous said...

From the theme article -

"Lee says developers are offering condos in the region at 20 percent below appraisal value. Redbrick expects the discount to grow to 40 percent because developers lose money every day they own a property."

- THIS STATEMENT IS PROOF that appraisals are FRAUD. Any true appraisal would take into consideration existing market conditions (such as the current price developers are dumping at) and therefor reflex a true market price. THEREFORE the above statement is proof that appraisers focus only the rear-view mirror and are a SHAM!!!

foxwoodlief said...

Those statistics on nurses don't reflect real pay. I'm sure if you throw in the nurses working in doctor's offices, nursing homes, schools, etc the pay is reduced to that average but in hospitals and with shift differentials and overtime and bonuses for working extra days I'm sure most nurses that want to work more than 3 days a week earn over $100,000 like the nurses I worked with in Phoenix.

Anonymous said...

Valets? Not quite $100K but $60-$70K for parking cars...not too shabby and most of it is tax free. Plus of course the "extras" like referal money from strip clubs and hookers which don't show up in BLS "median income" statistics.
http://tinyurl.com/y8wxet


See? Exactly! No problem in LV...

Anonymous said...

market issues of 2006 and possibly 2007....meaning 2008 will be OK?

Anonymous said...

In LA:

Nurses are at $95K at the higher percentiles (75% surveyed).

http://swz.salary.com/salarywizard/layoutscripts/swzl_localrangebell.asp?r=salswz_swzmatbll_psr&jobcode=HC07000028&jobtitle=Head+Nurse&narrowdesc=Healthcare+%2D%2D+Nursing&zipcode=90005&metrocode=98&wsrcode=SW2&yearsofexp=&geo=Los+Angeles%2C+CA&narrowcode=HC05

http://swz.salary.com/salarywizard/layoutscripts/swzl_localrangebell.asp?r=salswz_swzmatbll_psr&jobcode=HC07000008&jobtitle=Nurse+Practitioner&narrowdesc=Healthcare+%2D%2D+Nursing&zipcode=90005&metrocode=98&wsrcode=SW2&yearsofexp=&geo=Los+Angeles%2C+CA&narrowcode=HC05

But if you're good at taking chemistry exams, opt for pharmacy...

http://swz.salary.com/salarywizard/layoutscripts/swzl_localrangebell.asp?r=salswz_swzmatbll_psr&jobcode=HC07000011&jobtitle=Druggist&narrowdesc=Healthcare+%2D%2D+Practitioners&zipcode=90005&metrocode=98&wsrcode=SW2&yearsofexp=&geo=Los+Angeles%2C+CA&narrowcode=HC03

nearly a 100% of the profession in LA is earning a low six figure salary so it's not an unreasonable ascertain that ancilliary health care practioners are doing ok, relative to the cost of living increases during the past decade.

Anonymous said...

What kind of crack are you people smoking with $100K a year nurses in Los Angeles?

from Salary.com

Los Angeles Staff RN:
25th percentile is $60K
75th percentile is $71K

Las Vegas Staff RN:
25th: $56,931
75th: $67,411

Compare the median house value in LA ($487K) vs LV ($306K) and nurse is much better off in Las Vegas than L.A.

Do you people just make this up as you go along? $100K nurses...sure and I'll bet they're married to $180K a year bus drivers.

Anonymous said...

sounds like anon only likes the friendly confines of "real" cities like San Francisco and New York...must have something to do with the bath houses I suspect.

Yes you are right, a big lack of bath houses in PHX and LAS. Sorry.

Anonymous said...

Kona Report Part II

In answer to the Kohala Coast - yes, we are going up there tonight to the New Tommy Bahama's Cafe - great food - at least the one in Maui. . .the Kohala Coast doesn't seem to have many for sale signs, but then again, it is a controlled area, and likely the management wouldn't allow so many signs. We were in the coffee belt today - upper highway 180, and lots of for sale signs up there too, but not as many as south of Kona town. . .Actually, the locals have mixed emotions about the housing prices - they would prefer them to be lower so their children don't have to move to the mainland to afford to live. . .but it was nice thinking that the "little grass shack" was worth 500K a few months ago.

Anonymous said...

Nice try, but the average casino dealer does not work at a luxury resort like the Wynn or Bellagio. They likely make $35K/yr working at the Stratosphere, Gold Coast or Palace Station and blow half of it gambling, which doesn't leave much for housing.

Anonymous said...

How many county prosecutors are there in Las Vegas? Maybe a few dozen? The maximum pay is $112K, likely after 30 years of service.

The average valet does not work at a luxury resort. Even those who do, make only $50K.

Your own links are disproving your propaganda

Anonymous said...

trapped in AZ said...

That was real funny trapped, I got a good belly laugh (GBL). You write real good.

Viva La Bubble!!!

Too bad price changes take so long. The best I can hope for is that rents will remain reasonable and that jobs will not be outsourced by the corporatocracy.

If and when fundamentals allow I will buy...IF I am able to find a decent job!
Viva La Bubble!!!

Anonymous said...

FOXWOODLIEF

Is that you, you wasted damned soul? Are you the same Foxwoodlief that has made outrageous anti-semitic comments on other blogs? If not...my sincerest apologies. If so, you have been sussed!

Anonymous said...

Those cockroaches remind me of my old dorm room. Nostalgia trip.

Anonymous said...

I have a PhD in chemistry and make $63K. What's wrong with this picture?

Anonymous said...

It's been a few days now since the Phoenix numbers were released, and has anybody noticed -- Not one word from Swann on his blog.

Guess not even HE could spin this disaster.

foxwoodlief said...

Annonymous, the same old Foxwoodlief, and no, never made antisemtic remarks in my life. If you recall, I came from a line of converted jews several generations removed.

I'm the one who lived in Phoenix, moved to Austin, work in the medical field..not a nurse as some many months ago assumed, work in Radiology, has taken a one year sabbatical and now may be moving back to Phoenix. My wife's employer there made her an offer she couldn't refuse. She gets her five weeks vacation back, her senority, a ten thousand dollar raise, and a four day work week. She is a paralegal, so even though I prefer to stay here in beautiful Austin, I interview on monday for two positions.

We'll rent at first to get settled (maybe a seven month lease) and will buy when we find a bargain in central phoenix.

Living in Austin for nine months helps clarify the differences in Phoenix and Austin. They both have their positives and negatives. Quality of life is higher in Austin, the ability to earn a good living is higher in Phoenix. That is due to size. Austin is a small town and there are three main medical employers in town and a hand full of law firms compared to Phoenix so in our fields, not high tech, our opportunities are much better in Phoenix.

A friend Tucson asked why and I told him that there are over 11 hospitals in central Phoenix alone not counting imaging centers etc. Within fifteen miles of my house in Austin there are four and if you go forty-five miles out there are maybe nine. For every five openings here in my field there are twenty in Phoenix.

I will miss the hill country, the water, the trees, the wildlife, the lakes, the waterfalls, the rivers, the proximity to other large cities like Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Corpus Christi, the gulf beaches and the central location to travel. I won't miss the bad roads, the high property taxes (I actually had three letters to the editor printed here about that), and allergies. I will miss the diverse weather and not having to wear sunglasses everyday.

I like central Phoenix, I love the mountains, desert vegetation, the grid design of the city, the cleanliness, the newness, the lack of humidity.

I'll probably rent my home here out here for the tax deduction while I'm a renter in Phoenix. If Texas ever really reforms their regressive tax policies toward property and one's ability to pay via income tax I may consider retiring here but living here has shown me that as long as you are working and have a good paying job life can be good here, but retire, become unemployed, and those property taxes will kill you. And don't say renter's are better off...they do have more freedom to leave but those higher costs are passed on via higher rents.

I've decided I'd rather pay $200,000 more for an equivelant home in Phoenix than the ridiculous 3% property tax on a $400,000 house here. Taxes here are three times what they are in Arizona.

Two things I learned here: People move here for the quality of life. They leave because of the taxes. (Right TXCHICK?) Second, Articles tell you that Austin is one of the top ten places to live but doesn't tell you that it is near the bottom as a place to make a living.

Still, if my wife hadn't taken her job back in Phoenix we'd stay here and fight for tax reform and as long as we both worked would be less an issue but we want to retire someday and not have all our assests eaten up by property taxes.

Does that clarify who I am? I think once before I read an annonymous post I was a racist and was startled but have never seen anyone post in my name hateful things here yet. I learned from Keith about fake posters using other's ids and how to figure that one out.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its own level. Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly educated bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living. This souless mix of transients, budget seniors,tatooed misfits,real estate grifters,toothless white trash tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry, Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the intelligence charts. The only reason to be here (temporarily), is if you're making a decent income (absolute min. 250k per yr). Anything less is not worth it, as your health, mental well being and personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this genetic cesspool of half-breeds.
As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, there".

Anonymous said...

If you don't like it then leave!

Wait, maybe you would, if you could sell your stucco box! :)

foxwoodlief said...

Trapped in AZ, yes, parts of Phoenix metro are "soul-less" but there are many redeeming attributes. Hiking Camelback, Piestewa peak, North Mountain park, South Mountain park, spring in the desert...especially if we get a good wildflower season, hiking the superstitions, the drive up to the lakes, the desert botanical gardens...and some really nice, central Phoenix neighborhoods like North Central, Arcadia, Biltmore, the historic districts and then a lot of awful areas too.

Still, we are professionals and earn really good money and there are lots of jobs in our fields in Phoenix that pay as competively as California. Of course I'd have prefered to remain in Austin but you have to go where the wife wants to go. She liked her job and came to Austin for me so I guess I have to go back to Phoenix for her.

We have lived a total of 20 years in Phoenix. She loves the desert and the desert climate. I personally like tropics...Florida, but hey, each to their own right?

We don't plan on retiring for another fifteen years so it isn't like we'll stay there most likely since it will be way to big for us by then, is too big now, still, for a couple more years it is a perfectly fine place to live as long as you live in a nice area.

I've traveled extensively and I have to say if I can't live in parts of Europe then it doesn't really matter where I live (and work) in the USA. Lots of pretty places but very few that I feel a spiritual link to as a place to live. Still searching for the connection that so many people seem to get from a place.

Still, I won't buy in Phoenix unless the fundamentals make sense.

Anonymous said...

The sky is falling! It's the end of the world! It's the big bad wolf!!
Denver is down 1%!!
Honolulu down 1.8%!!
Miami down 4.6%!!
Las Vegas -2.95%!!

http://www.housing-watch.com/home.aspx?d=180

My retirement portfolio moves that much in ONE DAY. All you chicken littles need to get a life.

Anonymous said...

wow,

What a crock of bull.I live in California and it would cost me three times as much to own a home here than it would to rent so i am renting .A recent trip to arizona and i learned that i could buy a duplex and rent it out and imediately have a possitive cash flow. I guess thats one of the reasons arizona is now the fastest growing state in the u.s. the other might just be jobs