HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

January 12, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

How much would it suck to try to sell your home in this market today?

35 comments:

Anonymous said...: Let me put in my 2 cents worth. I purchased and remodeled a home in 2004 totaling 350,000. Sell price in summer of 2006 was 475,000 which i netted 450,000 after RE com. with interest rates going to about 6 3/8 vs. 5 5/8 in 2004. For me to put the same down payment down and keep the same monthly payment I can only afford a 425,000 house so i really just lost 50,000 grand on paper. Unless there is wild appreciation year to year with interest rates decreasing nobody can afford to move to many times. So i'm renting until somebody looses some equity they thought they had. which seems to be happening pretty fast in my area.; January 12, 2007 1:32 PM
Anonymous said...: I think that Real Estate is similar to a Whole Life Insurance policy. Yes there is residual value when compared to term life but it is still a bad invesment. Same thing can be said about comparing a Home Debtor to a Rener.

I also think that Rock n Roll has run its course in the anals of popular culture. Indeed it has proven to be closer to a Jingle than it has been to poetry.

Reading the 1-800 Safe Auto Jingle at a poetry reading is really no different than reading the lyrics from Pink Floyd or the Doors. Pop Culture thinks it is different and its just funny how people will believe and follow.

Buying Real Estate with no money down and using an exotic mortgage is no different than telling a landlord that you want to pay him not only the rent he is asking but also the property taxes, insurance and the maintenance cost in return for a lease that is titled mortgage. Pop culture (CNBC and the like) say its different and can be pretty convicing that debt = ownership. Its just funny that people are quick to believe.

tombaschi; January 12, 2007 2:12 PM
Anonymous said...: With that much vacant land? Donald Trump turned his unsold lots into "The finest driving range in America!"

But why stop there? Herd buffalo and get the ag reduced tax rates many areas have.; January 12, 2007 2:44 PM
Anonymous said...: It is a bitch to sell righ now for sure.If you are a good investor you should be thinking of buying in a little bit.You should have sold into the housing bubble and now wait and start adding to you real estate portfolio in the near future.You will never be able to pick the bottom of this mess but be patient.Real estate will return, it is not the end of the world.Money is flowing back into stocks and eventually will come back to real estate when it looks completely dead.Be smart and you will become very wealthy.; January 12, 2007 3:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone feeling Donald is under a bit of pressure as real estate melts down?; January 12, 2007 3:02 PM
Dr Housing Bubble said...: Depends where you are selling and what is your price-point. If you are in a stable market and price it right, the property should move. However, as investors leave bubbleland they are leaving brand new subdivisions as ghost towns since rents will not cover investor’s carrying cost; the definition of investor hell. In addition, the reason we are seeing a spike in inventory is certified douche bag sellers are thinking they will get peak bubble prices but folks haven’t reminded them that the party ended yesterday. They’ll get the memo soon.

Dr. Housing Bubble; January 12, 2007 4:28 PM
foxwoodlief said...: I agree with Dr Housing Bubble. Even in bubble areas good properties are still moving. And as far as Phoenix goes...every place should be so good. They sold only 69,000 houses as of Nov 2006 for the year. I'd say that isn't a bust. How many areas sell that many homes? Maybe not as good as the 110,000 in 2005 but the fourth best year on record...so much for ground zero. So how long before the excess inventory is absorbed?

I would be fine if I needed to sell here in Austin since the replacement cost of my home is $100,000 higher than I paid for the house. I could sell for lower than the builder with incentives and a premium hillside 1/2 acre lot and the semi-custom remodel and elevation changes that make the home almost custom.

Still looking at job offers in Phoenix and can say in all the areas I want to live the prices have not significantly come down and even with the discounts are higher than they were in the spring of 2005. Still waiting to buy at a major discount!; January 12, 2007 5:41 PM
Anonymous said...: how much would it suck if you were a "pre-construction" buyer here:

To be cautious, home builder Centex Homes has taken the Oakmont properties off the market and said it plans to clean up the site.

Arsenic, lead found at village site

Click-2-Listen
By Dwayne Robinson
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Friday, January 12, 2007

WELLINGTON — Oakmont Estates' beginnings were much like the rest of this village - rows of crops and canals filled in and paved over for the steam engine of development.

Except at Oakmont its developers have discovered unsafe amounts of arsenic and lead, which could pose health hazards to its future residents.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/pbcwest/content/local_news/epaper/2007/01/12/w1c_arsenic_0112.html; January 12, 2007 5:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Here in zip 81503 houses under $500K are selling like hotcakes. More expensive digs are selling slower, but there is no evidence of a crash as prices keep rising.

We bought our property in '02 for $215K and we could sell it tomorrow for $400K with multiple offers. All you HPers looking for a big crash are going to have to wait a little longer. Remember that little visit to China last month by Fed Chrm. Bernanke and Treas. Sec. Paulson? Seems they cut a deal that allows the Chinese to recycle USDs back into our equities markets. Now you know why Wall Street types are so damn bullish about 2007. The only downside is the chinks will own our sorry asses in ten years or so, but hey until then, toga! toga! toga!; January 12, 2007 6:31 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Out today, more people are moving out of Florida than into the Sunshine State. Negative population growth for Florida does not bode well for the PTB, but I am not mad about it.
A Florida Native; January 12, 2007 9:31 PM
Anonymous said...: The only native Floridians are Indians. So maybe you will be happy when all the jobs leave the state and you can get back to living in your teepees!!; January 12, 2007 10:59 PM
Anonymous said...: "More expensive digs are selling slower, but there is no evidence of a crash as prices keep rising."

Here is some evidence of your misplaced theory you bigoted racist.

http://www.oc-fliptrack.com/2006/09/cardboard-box-chateaux.html; January 12, 2007 11:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey, I think Greg Swann is after that listing!; January 12, 2007 11:06 PM
Anonymous said...: I say at least the roaches in Phoenix and Vegas will be well suited. I heard roaches prefer granite counter-tops on a 5-1 Basis.; January 12, 2007 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: "Bigoted racist"? That makes as much sense as calling someone a stupid idiot. At least make your insults cogent. This is after all HP, and Keith has standards to uphold.

And BTW, your link doesn't work either.; January 12, 2007 11:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey how'd you get that picture of my house?; January 12, 2007 11:52 PM
David in JAX said...: Out today, more people are moving out of Florida than into the Sunshine State. Negative population growth for Florida does not bode well for the PTB, but I am not mad about it.
A Florida Native

Can you post this link. As a Floridian, I'm interested in seeing these numbers. I know this has been true for the last two years, but I don't have a recent article to quote.; January 12, 2007 11:59 PM
David in JAX said...: I say at least the roaches in Phoenix and Vegas will be well suited. I heard roaches prefer granite counter-tops on a 5-1 Basis.

Apparently, granite counter tops, light cabinets and stainless steel appliances are no longer considered fashionable for kitchens. It's going to be hell selling all of this dead inventory of new houses with kitchens that are already considered dated.; January 13, 2007 12:03 AM
Anonymous said...: granite counter tops, light cabinets and stainless steel appliances are no longer considered fashionable for kitchens.

This is funny coming from HP where a 12 year old car is considered "new". You fools woulnd't know fashionable or trendy if it bit you in the eyeball.; January 13, 2007 12:26 AM
Anonymous said...: The Chinese are "allowed" to recycle dollars into equity markets?

They need no "allowance" to do that. Anyone can buy stocks, even foreigners.

So apparently that wasn't "the deal".

And they'd be taking money out of bonds to do that if they did.; January 13, 2007 2:08 AM
Chris said...: Is that Richard's house in the photo? The conspiracy theorist with the ammo piled high in his living room? (Just kidding Richard.)

David in jax, the article is mentioned in Ben's Housing Bubble blog (thehousingbubbleblog.com).; January 13, 2007 2:28 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: The only native Floridians are Indians
================

Cherokee/English/Irish/Florida Born; January 13, 2007 2:32 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: never lived in a teepee, however.; January 13, 2007 2:32 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Population Growth In Florida Declines
Skip directly to the full story.

By CHRIS ECHEGARAY The Tampa Tribune

Published: Dec 22, 2006

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TAMPA - When school districts dramatically missed enrollment projections last month, it was a harbinger of a U.S. census report out today.

Florida dropped from the top spot for total population growth this year to No. 2. Texas was the fastest-growing state in the union from July 2005 to July 2006.

The addition of 321,697 people, though, stayed in line with the state's longtime trend, University of Florida demographer Stefan Rayer said. Florida's population increased an average of more than 300,000 people annually for the past three decades.

"The spike in this decade has to do with the booming housing market," Rayer said. "That's a good chunk of it. The other reason is jobs and the local economy."

Florida added 404,000 people from July 2004 to July 2005. The U.S. Census Bureau releases a report on state growth for that period each December.

Rayer said there are three components when looking at population growth or lulls: international migration, births and deaths. "Those are good indicators," he said.

An early indicator that Florida growth fell off in 2005-06 was school enrollment for the 2006-07 year. School officials projected 2.7 million students but were short more than 48,000. Most Florida counties saw enrollment growth stop. Experts theorized that housing and insurance were getting too expensive for families with children.

Florida has 18.1 million people and is listed fourth in total population behind, in order, California, Texas and New York. According to the Office of Economic Research, which forecasts trends for the Florida Legislature, the state's population will be 26.4 million by 2030.

"It just shows there are a lot more people moving in to the state than moving out," state demographer Pam Schenker said.

Other highlights from the census report include:

•Louisiana's population was down nearly 220,000 from last year's report.

•The South accounts for 36 percent of the nation's total population.

•The Northeast grew by 62,000 people, compared with the South at 1.5 million.

•Arizona surpassed Nevada as the fastest-growing state by percentage with about a 4 percent increase in its population.
CENSUS TOP 5

The five fastest states in total population growth for July 2005-July 2006.

1. Texas: 579,275

2. Florida: 321,697

3. California: 303,402

4. Georgia: 231,388

5. Arizona: 213,311

Source: Census.gov

http://tinyurl.com/y4vb4y; January 13, 2007 2:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Where is this house? It looks like a lovely neighborhood...
no neighbors!

How much is it? It's my dream.; January 13, 2007 4:04 AM
Anonymous said...: I'd never live in a neighborhood that would not let me poop in the front yard!; January 13, 2007 4:05 AM
David in JAX said...: chris g said...
David in jax, the article is mentioned in Ben's Housing Bubble blog.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
Population Growth In Florida Declines
Skip directly to the full story.

Thank You!; January 13, 2007 1:28 PM
David in JAX said...: Anonymous said...
granite counter tops, light cabinets and stainless steel appliances are no longer considered fashionable for kitchens.

This is funny coming from HP where a 12 year old car is considered "new". You fools woulnd't know fashionable or trendy if it bit you in the eyeball.

And your basis for this statement is...

My wife is a university librarian in an architecture / interior design library. If you pick up a 2007 periodical on interior design, you will see that dark granite, light cabinets and stainless steel appliances are out. Light marble / light engineered stone, all white cabinets, and white or colored enamel coated appliances are in.; January 13, 2007 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...: "The Chinese are "allowed" to recycle dollars into equity markets?
They need no "allowance" to do that. Anyone can buy stocks, even foreigners. So apparently that wasn't "the deal"."

Not if the purchase generates a controlling interest, look at the SEC rules. Paulson and Benanke weren't talking about in-duh-vidual Chinese investors with e*Trade accounts. No, this means the Chinese don't even have to use a condom anymore...; January 13, 2007 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: My wife is a university librarian

A renter married to a librarian. You must have been one bad ass mother effer in a previous lifet to deserce this hell.; January 13, 2007 3:57 PM
Anonymous said...: "Anyone feeling Donald is under a bit of pressure as real estate melts down? "

Of course he is!!!! That's why he's shifting the sheeps attention from real estate to Rosie's FAT ASS!; January 13, 2007 3:58 PM
Anonymous said...: Wonder what the #s would be if you excluded illegal aliens? I know in Georgia there are an estimated 500,000 illegals alone.
-------------------------------------
1. Texas: 579,275

2. Florida: 321,697

3. California: 303,402

4. Georgia: 231,388

5. Arizona: 213,311; January 13, 2007 3:59 PM
David in JAX said...: Anonymous said...
My wife is a university librarian

A renter married to a librarian. You must have been one bad ass mother effer in a previous lifet to deserce this hell.

WOW. The RE Trolls are bitter today. You must be losing your ass in the RE market right now to be angry at librarians of all people. Did you begin to hate librarians when you flunked out of college? Or was it high school? Haha. Idiot.; January 13, 2007 9:19 PM
Anonymous said...: 213,000 illegals in Arizona?

Bull....maybe in Maricopa co. But there are many more than that!!!!; January 14, 2007 2:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Thers no panic in the UK.
Check out my site, we offer discounted properties as well as help in building property portfolios. Also we have a new service we just started we can completely package a property deal for you, where we can provide tenants, manage property and guaratee property rentals. All you have do is provide the deposit.
www.mbenetwork.co.uk
Any feedback most welcome. Thanks; January 18, 2007 1:47 PM

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January 12, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

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