HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

January 10, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Are you ready?

58 comments:

Anonymous said...: Ready as can be; January 10, 2007 1:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Looks like most of the market bears have thrown in the towel, victims of a global financial system that can apparently inflate without limits. The recent drop in key commodity prices is making the deflation crowd cheer with glee, but it's just a head fake IMO.

Then we have the HP crowd who, like the Y2K crazies, seem to believe they alone will prosper while everyone else dies in the street. HPers think that because they have a few shekels in the bank and no mortgage, the rest of the world will bow down and heap riches on them as they ascend to power and fame.

Nope, the rest of the world, those indebted, hedonous, consumption junkies will steal what you HPers have at the point of a gun (aka government edict) and in the end you will be worse off for your oddball stance because they will label you as a greedy hoarder. The wealthiest might even do prison time as an example to others.

The only way to avoid the madness is to move to a place where you can live in comfortable anonymity and pay cash for your daily needs. Those places are getting harder to find...; January 10, 2007 2:13 PM
Anonymous said...: What's the worry? I own my home free and clear. Debt free at 41 years old. I live in fly over country with 10 years of expenses saved in cash and "other things".

For those that didn't see a severe recession coming, you're a sheeple and didn't know it. The downturn started in 2004 at the peak of irrational real estate speculators. I started selling all of my investments and moved into cash and paid off all debt.; January 10, 2007 2:17 PM
Anonymous said...: I was told yesterday by a Realtor friend that since Jan. 1 they have seen a tremendous number of new home listings hitting the market. Example: her office will usually average 10 to 12 new listings per week. They had 23 last week! A lot of home sellers were sitting patiently waiting for the holidays to be over and buying season to start again. But will the buyers come?; January 10, 2007 2:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Fire? What fire? 24 and American Idol start next week! Now THAT'S going to be hot!!!; January 10, 2007 3:22 PM
Anonymous said...: In high school I remember every 2 or 3 weeks there was a flase alarm. Usually due to some poor kid who didn't study for the calculus test. A real fire never occured. However the flase alarms were always fun and exciting.

So by now let's see the false alarms we've had on HP recently:
- $1T to be dumped by China
(FALSE)
- Banks in New Jersey to shut
down causing a run on currency
(FALSE)
- hyperinflation coming
(FALSE unless you consider
plummeting oil, gold, silver
and copper hyperinflation
- 2006 stock market crash
(FALSE unless you consider a
gain of 14% a crash)
- Los Angeles 50% crash in home
prices predicted for 2006
(FALSE unless you consider
5% and 50% to be the same
thing)

and the list goes on and on

So the question is am I ready? For another series of false alarms, I sure am.; January 10, 2007 3:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Local inventory decline in Sacramento has stopped. The run up in inventory that will be exacerbated by those selling who can’t make their increased ARM payments is beginning. Really there is only one thing someone can say about 2007 ….

“Wake up … its time to die!”; January 10, 2007 3:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Copper down = check, stocks down = check, gold down = check (sorry Keith, buy my oil is down too) . . .MLS soaring again in Phoenix, SD, LV, etc. etc. . .housing prices in free-fall = check. . .can we say, "deflationary recession/depression?"; January 10, 2007 3:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Ready for what? To catch the falling knife/! NO WAY!!!; January 10, 2007 3:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Ready for what?; January 10, 2007 4:19 PM
Anonymous said...: YTD:

NASDAQ COMPOSITE: + 1.2%
GOLD: (4.8%)
SILVER: (5.3%)

If it's all the same with you Keith, I'll take my investment advice from someone who actually knows a thing or two about investing.; January 10, 2007 4:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Boring So boring that Keith is only letting people with his wrong view post. Sounds like North Korea. Nice touch; January 10, 2007 4:25 PM
Anonymous said...: 2007 !!!
Fannie's David Berson: Still haven't hit bottom in housing

Expect more disappointment on the home front this year. The worst is probably behind us. No more dramatic drops in sales. But that does not mean we have reached bottom. So says David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae. He tells John Wordock home sales and housing starts will fall a bit more this year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/playerfull.asp?siteid=yhoo&dist=yhooBB&guid=%7BA3DA389C%2DAB5F%2D4C0F%2D8B7A%2D56FF9F1197D0%7D; January 10, 2007 4:31 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/playerfull.asp?siteid=yhoo&dist=yhooBB&guid=%7BA3DA389C%2DAB5F%2D4C0F%2D8B7A%2D56FF9F1197D0%7D

2007
Fannie's David Berson: Still haven't hit bottom in housing

Expect more disappointment on the home front this year. The worst is probably behind us. No more dramatic drops in sales. But that does not mean we have reached bottom. So says David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae. He tells John Wordock home sales and housing starts will fall a bit more this year.; January 10, 2007 4:32 PM
Smart Grid blogger said...: 2007

Fannie's David Berson: Still haven't hit bottom in housing

Expect more disappointment on the home front this year. The worst is probably behind us. No more dramatic drops in sales. But that does not mean we have reached bottom. So says David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae. He tells John Wordock home sales and housing starts will fall a bit more this year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/playerfull.asp?siteid=yhoo&dist=yhooBB&guid=%7BA3DA389C%2DAB5F%2D4C0F%2D8B7A%2D56FF9F1197D0%7D; January 10, 2007 4:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Greg Swann is the devil. Buying a property with him was the worst mistake I ever made. I am way under water.; January 10, 2007 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Renting month-month, no debt, $150K plus in the bank. Just waiting to "save" someone from their mortgage.; January 10, 2007 4:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Can anyone suggest some accelerants?; January 10, 2007 5:23 PM
Anonymous said...: $150K in cash. So you're earning 1% in a checking account or maybe 4.5% in a CD.

I'm sorry, was that supposed to be a good situation? I guess it's a beauty in the eye of the beholder thing.

Whether you're a bull or a bear you can make money if you are right regardless of what the market does. By keeping your money in cash what you're saying is you don't have a clue or worse you're too scared to put your money where your mouth is.

So go on earn that 4.5% if it makes you feel good, but don't expect anyone to be impressed.; January 10, 2007 6:36 PM
Anonymous said...: SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET WILL BE NEXT TO TANK; January 10, 2007 6:51 PM
blogger said...: Only a fool would be earning 1% or 4.5% on their cash today

Check bankrate for the best rates. I'm at 5.3% savings and 5.75% 1.5 year CD via eloan, and 5.5% in my vanguard money markets; January 10, 2007 7:04 PM
Anonymous said...: WOW!!! 5.75% with eloan when inflation according to HPers is 10-15%.

Gee wizz.; January 10, 2007 7:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Are Fitch, Bloomberg and Macroeconomic Advisers all part of REIC?

January 9, 2007 7:10 a.m. EST
New York, NY (AHN)

The homebuilding industry in the U.S. is about to pick up later this year, say analysts. The housing demand appears to be on the rise and it could spur faster growth in the sector.

Economists at Bloomberg news say, housing will not add much to economic expansion before the end of the year - however, price cuts, incentives, and lower mortgage rates are likely to attract more buyers to the market.

"The worst of the drag on the economy from construction is behind us,'' says Chris Varvares, president of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers Llc.

Varvares says, growth should start to increase to an annual rate of more than 3 percent in the second quarter - that is in comparison to 2-1/4 percent in the present quarter.

This would, in turn, decrease pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.

"Investors are very forward-looking, and there's a sense among them that a change in momentum in the housing market is approaching,'' says Robert Curran, managing director at credit rating company Fitch Inc. in New York.; January 10, 2007 7:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Is the Economics Department at UNLV part of REIC?

January 08, 2007
By Phoebe Sweet
Las Vegas Sun

Southern Nevada's slumping residential real estate market will start recovering by year's end even as other markets nationwide continue to struggle, a local economist predicts.

Our quick rebound will be stoked by continued population and job growth, says Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV. The region will fare better than, for instance, California, where prices are even higher than in Nevada, and Michigan, which has lost hundreds of thousands of jobs since 2000, he said.

"The population growth rate is slowing down for Las Vegas, but it still remains above the national level. People are still moving from Michigan to Las Vegas. There are job openings," Schwer said. "The growth may slow, but generally speaking the tide is coming in, and growth creates demand."; January 10, 2007 7:27 PM
Anonymous said...: 2007 prediction:

Deflation in overvalued assets (RE, metals, energy)

Inflation in services and imported goods; January 10, 2007 8:08 PM
Anonymous said...: So does anyone still think that $600K for a 3000sf house in Bakersfield is a bargain? How about $800K for one in No Virginia? How about $500K for a 500sf studio condo in San Diego?; January 10, 2007 8:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Sigh...I guess I'll go look for more articles that "fit my worldview"; January 10, 2007 8:23 PM
Anonymous said...: i've had three good friends of mine quit good jobs in 2005 to sell houses. they all laughed at me and said i was stupid not to have. one just recently called me crying, wanting me to buy his car.; January 10, 2007 9:06 PM
Anonymous said...: 2007 prediction:

Deflation in overvalued assets (RE, metals, energy)Inflation in services and imported goods

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!; January 10, 2007 9:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Heard on the news that Virginia housing prices actually rose 3% last year.

Read in the paper that one new home builder reported a 6% drop in the price of its new homes in the fourth quarter 2006.

Read one home builder reported a double digit decrease in home delivery cancellations.

Is there yet a bubble? Am not sure, prices can not go down indefinately. I was expecting notepad computer prices to come down, but they remain high as people kept requiring the newer, faster, larger storage systems; with things like DVD burners, wireless, and other things you could not get before, loaded with the newer operating system.

The newer houses might have more bathrooms, newer energy efficient appliances, insulated windows, more outlets per linear foot of wall perimeter, and other neat features like the roof line does not sag in the middle from 70 years of gravity.; January 10, 2007 9:16 PM
Anonymous said...: with a low dollar inflation in imported goods...wow did you get a PhD from MIT to figure that out?; January 10, 2007 9:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Greg swann is totally incompetent. He will be eating noodle ramen here soon. Maybe him and mr casey serin will become friends.; January 10, 2007 9:27 PM
Anonymous said...: So does anyone still think that $600K for a 3000sf house in Bakersfield is a bargain? How about $800K for one in No Virginia? How about $500K for a 500sf studio condo in San Diego?

My father in law is a big car guy. He has a restored 1969 Camaro and 1964 Mustang. Bought both of them for nothing, did all the work restoring himself on the weekend. Both of these cars are worth in the $30Ks.

Are they worth it? No chance in hell I'd pay that much. I woudln't pay 1/5 of that since I think for $20K I can buy a new car that is much better for my needs. Doesn't mean he couldn't sell both of them in about 10 minutes if he wanted to.

Your question is quite ridiculous given the audience here. 90% of the readers of your question never thought those homes/condos were worth it to begin with. So why are you asking if they still think it?; January 10, 2007 9:30 PM
Joe said...: People are still moving from Michigan to Las Vegas. There are job openings

You're damn right. Dealers, cocktail waitress, janitors and pimps are easily making $100-200k per year. Thousands are moving there daily. Half the world's population will be living there by 2020. You better buy property now or else you'll be crowded out...; January 10, 2007 9:43 PM
Anonymous said...: KEITH,

why did you not post my comment that mortgage apps for new purchases today up16%????

This is really sad, you are censoring any thoughtful discussion except for one side of a story..

PS Im not a troll or realtor (I know thats a sin to you all) but hate to have a discussion without relevant facts

WILL YOU CENSOR THIS TOO? if so shame on you, (and the blog has lost ALL credibility).....

Thanks; January 10, 2007 10:04 PM
Anonymous said...: joe logic is jealous cuz a cocktail waitress in Las Vegas makes more than him.

Yes mr. smart guy dealers, cocktail waitresses make a lot of money here. Pimps and drug dealers too I'm sure.

But Mr. Smart Guy all those coktail waitresses and dealers need a doctor and a dentist and their kids need an education and they need fire and police protection and they need a lawyer when they sue their incompetent doctor/dentist. And then that lawyer also needs a doctor and a dentist and their kids need an education and they need fire/police protection. And you know all those pretty lights on all the pretty slot machines, someone needs to keep those running. People like software engineers and programmers and tech support. And oh yea someone needs to actually make the slot machines, you know those manufacturing jobs we keep hearing about.

You starting to catch on? It's not just cocktail waitresses moving here smart guy. It's a whole cross section of society.

Predicted Reply from joe:
Yeah yeah yeah but according to the department of blah blah blah the median wage in las vegas is $XYZ and that means nobody can afford a median home of $WHATEVER if you use the historical ratio of yadda yadda yadda.

Save it joe. Those numbers are meaningless. Las Vegas has been growing exponentially for 20+ years. Every year pessimists like you say this can't last. And every year another 50,000 more people show up and another 5000 room behemoth megaresort opens up.

I can't drive 1/2 a mile without running into some kind of construction be it homes, a new mall, a new interstate interchange, a new hotel, a new school, a new hospital, a new car dealership, a new office complex....just everywhere you go there is construction of something.

So go ahead joe, think what you will. I'll see you in 10 years when my overpriced home will have doubled yet again in price and you'll still be rentinng hoping the crash is just around the corner.; January 10, 2007 10:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith has not published some of my posts as well that offer a dissenting opinion.

You are no better than the NAR when you act like this Keith.; January 10, 2007 10:43 PM
blogger said...: last anon - when did you stop beating your wife?

get it?

can't prove a negative; January 10, 2007 11:08 PM
Anonymous said...: some highlights of the mortgage numbers:

volume of mortgage applications filed with major U.S. banks rose 16.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis last week compared to the week before

Seasonally adjusted as in you can't spin this as a January is 16.6% higher over slow Christmas week

Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 20.1% of applications, off from the prior week's 20.4% and the smallest share since July 2003.

See everyone, not everyone is getting negative option ARMs?

Last week's applications to refinance an existing mortgage increased 17.3% compared with the previous week. Refinancing applications are up about 28% compared with a year ago.

Broad based increase refis and new apps.; January 10, 2007 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Who's the idiot comparing rare collectible cars to crappy stucco homes being built by the millions?; January 10, 2007 11:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Anal_Cysts were also recommending a strong buy on Enron and WorldCom and Pet.com all the way into bankruptcy while the smartmoney was running away with bundles of cash.

If the Anal-Cysts know that a rebound is coming in 2007, then let them buy up all the condos in San Diego and Miami with pay-option ARMs.; January 11, 2007 12:00 AM
Anonymous said...: anon,

yes those numbers dont lead one to believe that going FORWARD things are deteriorating broadly- it goes both ways, when demand (as evidenced by mortgage applications and sales) were going down earlier in the year and supply increasing, market was due to soften...

now , its simply the reverse, supply decreasing in most areas, and demand increasing (no emotion here just following the numbers) so the market likely to stabilize nationwide on average from here, not deteriorate, it works both ways, thats all....; January 11, 2007 12:16 AM
Anonymous said...: "The population growth rate is slowing down for Las Vegas, but it still remains above the national level. People are still moving from Michigan to Las Vegas. There are job openings," Schwer said. "The growth may slow, but generally speaking the tide is coming in, and growth creates demand."
+++++++
Demand for incredibly overpriced housing? Don't think so. Take a look at median income for Las Vegas:

"The median income for a household in the city was $44,069, and the median income for a family was $50,465. Males had a median income of $35,511 versus $27,554 for females."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_Vegas,_Nevada

or try:

http://tinyurl.com/y73vbb; January 11, 2007 12:47 AM
Anonymous said...: "volume of mortgage applications filed with major U.S. banks rose 16.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis last week compared to the week before"

Don't be a dumbass. Seasonally adjusted can mean just about whatever the MBA wants it to mean. Also, it's pretty typical to see a large increase between end of New Years' and holidays though January 10th. Now let's see what those YOY figures look like for initial home purchases, eh?

Face it, housing is crashing and there is nothing that can stop it. 2007 will be a complete and total bloodbath. It matters not if people are refinancing - in fact it makes a lot of sense that people would be. They are trying to delay the inevitable foreclosure and squeeze whatever they can out to liquify their debt-laden situation because they know the house won't sell for enough money. And to suckers like you, this is a good thing. MUAHAHAHA!!!

Housing is tanking, that much is clear. Whether or not the fallout takes 3-4 years or 16 years like Japan depends upon a lot of this refi monkey business. It also depends upon how much of the consumer economy is tied to the house ATM machine and how much employment is tied to housing and how much savings people have. The more the sheeple in the mainstream media insist that the bottom is in and the more stories I hear about how RE won't crash, the more I'm convinced that my true contrarian postition is intact (housing will crash.); January 11, 2007 12:49 AM
foxwoodlief said...: I agree with annonymous when he made a list of HP predictions that all failed to materialize. When is Keith joining a fundamentalist church? His preaching will be a hit, Jesus is coming, Jesus is coming......Jesus is coming...soon!

The big quake is coming soon, the cat five hurricane...just wait...if we wait long enough, it will always come.

I sold most of my stocks in 2006 thinking the market would tank, guess I took a hit, not that I care, still made money after ten years of investing. Sold my house in 2005 (spring) miss part of the big run up in prices, don't care, still made more than I paid in 2002.

My pessimistic side says 2007 should suck, stocks, commodities, home values, currencies, but hey, was wrong in 2004,2005, 2006, probably will be wrong in 2007. No one can really time markets now can they? We can hope that we got out before the crest, but if we missed the wave? Oh well, life goes on.

People need to stop worrying about this stuff and just move forward with what is important and fight for it. If you want to rent, rent. If you want to buy. If you want to have kids, have kids. Just don't bitch about it afterwards or be envious because you found out having kids sucks or renting or the lack of flexibility if you own.

Now that I've been on sabbatical for almost a year I'm finding a lot of my priorities are shifting. Working definitely means less than it use to and so does the toys that working can buy. I am considering selling my current house, all my possessions, moving out into a small town with cheap houses and living the very simple life free of possessions.

The stress of worrying about money and losing what you worked hard for is silly. Life will always be someway. People can loose everything in a flash of an eye. Their health, their kids, their family, their life, their home. Tornado, hurricane, tidal wave, earthquake, fire (look at Suzanne Sommers), mudslide, flood, no one really has control. Let go....live with no regrets. Don't let "I only wish" be engraved on your tombstones.; January 11, 2007 1:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Yep, gold has been "plummeting", "cratering", "tanking", and "crashing" ever since I bought in at $400...; January 11, 2007 2:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Boy, this has been one of the best threads I've read on here in a while. A lot of good views! But, just let me weigh in for a minute.
First, let tell you that I sold the last of my houses in 06. I've also, been buying gold for the last two years. I'm telling you all this so you know what side I come down on.
None of us knows where this is all going, but, because we all read blogs like this, we all can sleep good at night, knowing that we are well informed, having sought out all the views on where this economy is going.; January 11, 2007 3:43 AM
Anonymous said...: California forclosures hit record quarter in Q4, 2006 spike to over 150,000, and not a single newpaper article. Why is nobody talking about defaults on median home price of $500,000? That's the $75 billion dollar question.; January 11, 2007 6:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Things are going great. That's why 5 mortgage lenders have gone bankrupt since November. Time to flip some condos in Florida. I see the cat's bouncing along just fine.; January 11, 2007 6:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Mortgage numbers have been trending down for 14 months and start going up for 2 weeks and the genuis declares all is well. Even Amazon stock had a few up days as it went from $450 to $32. A few GF's will save a few FB's this year on the long winding road down the mountain. A good time to buy would be 2001 prices. I will be looking for a REO from one of the morons who over-borrowed in 2004-2006. For now, I will continue to be a bitter renter paying $750/mo for a 2/2 townhouse with no property taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance or ridiculously high mortgage. Maybe I will buy the townhouse as a REO from my landlord's master when he can no longer afford the negative cashflow. HAHAHAHA

Just a question, housing bullshitters: if everyone who hasn't bought has been priced out forever, then why are the HB's building so many millions of new homes each year? I guess that was just another lie from the REIC to fleece the sheeple the past few years.; January 11, 2007 6:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Lets see, you bought in at $400 and your bitching because it's plummeting to current $611......cry me a river!; January 11, 2007 6:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:47:44 AM: Read Anon 10:37PM; January 11, 2007 3:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Bought at $400 went up to $750 and now is at $610...multiply that by 1000 and it is the story of most home owners in California; January 11, 2007 3:17 PM
Anonymous said...: You guys are amazing when it comes to spin.

Keith posts a story about 1 house whose owner lost 30% and you all giggle like little girls at who awful the entire market it.

Actual data comes out showing mortgage apps skyrocket and you brushit off as insignificant.

I have to admit while reading HP and other similar sites I was scared for a while. At first blush Keith and teh rest can be persuasive. However the more you read the more you realize it's all a Michael Moore movie.

Nothing Keith says is ever a lie so he can't be accused of lying. But he dimisses the opposing side completely and mocks anyone who proposes an alternative view. That's when you know he cannot be taken seriously.

I've also noticed a definite change in attitudes from the renters. You have become a lot more nasty in the past 2 months or so. I can understand why. After 18 months of predictions your mega housing crash turned out to be a minor correction. Then starting in Novemver the data coming out shows either a flat 2007 or a slight improvement. Median price of new homes up. Mortgage apps up. Daily articles quoting economists (of the non-NAR variety) saying the worst is over for housing.

It'll be fun to watch the spin going forward. My favorite part will be - I think - the first month when YOY median prices will be up. By the end of that week HPers will need new shoes after spinning so hard.; January 11, 2007 3:34 PM
Anonymous said...: After dropping by 20% last December, mortgage apps increase by 16% this year for two weeks and that's a skyrocket? It would have had to increase by 40% to cover last year's 20% loss. In reality, it made up less than half of last year's decrease. Prices are trending down or flat and that is all it will take to flush out the speculators and option ARMs. REO's will outnumber new houses.; January 11, 2007 6:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Who will buy all those resales and new houses since we bitter renters and non-speculators have all been priced out forever?

Will it be those rich baby boomers who have an average of $25K in their retirement accounts? Who will buy their current homes? Will it be the people who have been priced out forever?

It seems like there is a flaw in the REIC spin.; January 11, 2007 6:41 PM
Anonymous said...: I don't know who is priced out and who isn't. What I do know is last quarter 19,245 people bought a home in Las Vegas with a median price of $306,000.

And all this with a median income of who gives a fuck?; January 11, 2007 9:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 6:51-

Fear you're right about Seattle. Can already see the signs of its' crumbling.; January 12, 2007 3:30 AM

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January 10, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

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