Housing prices are crashing and crashing hard. You just don't know it yet. "It's going to get bloody"

It should be obvious by now that the Commerce Department and NAR housing reports are laughable.

It should be quite clear that pricing data that doesn't include incentives and cash-back is bogus. And when you see new home sales numbers just dropping slightly, when they don't include the 40% - 50% cancellation rate, you should just laugh and laugh.

You're being lied to Americans, you're being taken for fools and suckers. If you want the truth, it's out there. You just have to look for it.

Here's an illuminating article in the WSJ for starters:

WSJ: Housing Glut Gives Buyers Upper Hand

A quarterly survey of housing conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas by The Wall Street Journal showed that the inventory of unsold homes at the end of 2006 was up substantially in nearly all of the markets from the already plentiful level of a year earlier. The biggest increases were in the metro areas of Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville, Fla.; Phoenix; and Portland, Ore.

The survey also includes recent pricing trends -- nearly all negative -- based on surveys of real-estate agents by Banc of America Securities in New York, a unit of Bank of America Corp., as well as data on late mortgage payments and job-creation prospects from Moody's Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa. Employment figures have a huge effect on housing demand.

"It's going to get bloody down here," Mr. McCabe says. He estimates that condo prices in Miami-Dade fell between 8% and 10% last year and will drop 20% in 2007. Eventually, he predicts, hedge funds and other investors will step in to buy surplus condos in bulk at huge discounts.

Mr. Dennehy estimates that condo prices have fallen at least 15% to 20% in the county over the past year, though it's hard to measure price changes because sellers often give incentives such as free upgrades or help with closing costs that aren't reflected in the price.

Mr. Otteau figures home prices fell an average of about 10% in New Jersey last year.

In Scottsdale, some sellers are cutting prices by 10% or more, says Dale Pavlicek, sales manager for the Coldwell Banker Residential office there. "There are a lot of vacant homes on the market," he says. Sellers who bought in the past year or two are barely breaking even or are coming to the closing table with money to pay off their mortgage and other costs, he adds.