Used home sales supposedly down again in December and for all 2006. But we'll never know how much really - NAR numbers after all, with the bogus price data too.
And The Corrupt (and how is this guy still employed?) David Lereah had some gems today!
"It appears we have established a bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR. "We are still vulnerable; we are not out of this yet."
"There was no bubble burst in 2006," Lereah said.
January 25, 2007
Home sales crash worst in 24 years. The Corrupt David Lereah says: "It appears we have established a bottom. There was no bubble burst in 2006"
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If there was no crash what have we reached the bottom of?
Laughable!
Off with his head!
Keith, put up a picture of Dr. Smith from the old Lost & Space series with his famous phrase "Ooooh the pain" even better if you can get a video clip of him saying that, don't you think?
Beazer reports a 55% loss in earnings and a 43% cancellation rate.
DR Horton reports a 65% loss in earnings.
WCI Communities managed the incredible feat of reporting more cancellations than new orders for the 4th quarter in Florida.
There's just a sampling of what I read this morning but there's no bursting bubble. Taking a 1/2 to 2/3 haircut in earnings is perfectly normal. I want some of what Lereah's smoking.
JAFO
Today's headlines:
Unemployment claims highest in 6 months
Mortgage Rates Increase (because OPEC is dumping t-bills)
Home sales down. . .(inventory in December down - but going back up FAST)
Foreclosures Up in California to alarming levels - some areas 200%
Phoenix MLS back to over 52,000.
Comment - the perfect storm is here for a March/April total meltdown. . .
It is funny how they denied denied denied up until the day that they could not deny any longer and at that point they turn around and say that the worst is over.
This is not a new strategy, they said the worst was over back in 1930 as well.
In this interview "Honest Dave" (may I call him that?) comments on how all speculators have left the market. Perhaps all of the speculators WOULD LIKE to leave the market, but the housing market is illiquid and most speculators are still in the process of listing and lowering in order to effect their exit.
Note to Honest Dave, to quote Al Gore, "You ain't seen nothing yet!"
Man, if that wasn't a bubble bursting, I'd hate to see what it'll look like when it does!
Existing Home Sales Plummet in 2006
of Existing Homes Plunge by Largest Amount in 17 Years
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes fell in December, closing out a year in which demand for homes slumped by the largest amount in 17 years.
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes were down 0.8 percent last month, a bigger decline than had been expected. For the year, sales fell by 8.4 percent, the biggest annual decline since 1989, when existing home sales fell by 14.8 percent.
The sales figure underscored the sharp contraction that is going on in the once high-flying housing market, which before last year had set sales records for five straight years.
Hey everybody! It's a GREAT time to buy!
http://tinyurl.com/yz33ym
How many times has he declared the bottom reached? How many bottoms exist in a bust?
Technically speaking, isn't Lereah correct? Didn't the bubble burst the latter part of 2005? So he's right - it wasn't 2006?
Hmmm so sales fell but a whole lot in 1981. the world did not end. Gold did not hit $1000. A great depression did not occur. And by the mid 80s housing was booming again.
Yet HPers think this time it's different. No, it's not.
lereah is just as stubborn as GWB, except that he (lereah) is "gay" lookin guy.
I would love to know, exactly what honest Dave is doing with his own money. If he thinks it's the bottom, then let's see him buy some property. I'm sure he does not have the balls.
Phoenix MLS back to over 52,000
Where do you get number from?
Did any of you advance past 8th grade? I swear, it's like reading middle schoolers here with the lack of analysis and critical thinking.
2006 sales fell from 2005. OK. Sure. But the part you leave out is that even with that drop it is still the 3rd highest ever.
ORLANDO, Fla., Jan. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- Florida's housing market mirrored the national trend in 2006.....By year's end, a total of 180,037 homes changed hands statewide for a 28 percent decrease compared to the 248,575 homes sold in 2005, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). At the same time....2006 also is expected to be the third highest sales year on record nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
Let me put in in terms you renters can understand. I have a business selling widgets. In 2001 I sell 1000 widgest. In 2002 I sell 1200. In 2003 i sell 1400. In 2004 I am up to 1900. In 2005 I am at 2000. Then in 2006, thing slow down and I am "ONLY" selling 1800 widgets.
In HPland I would be closing up shop even though my sales are up 80% over 5 years.
CRASH IN PHOENIX!! Well not really if you look at it historically and something unknown to HP..objectively
Arizona Business Gazette
Jan. 25, 2007 12:00 AM
For 2006, 67,035 sales were recorded compared with 110,835 sales for 2005 and 102,115 for 2004. Although the market slowed appreciably, 2006 was the fourth-best resale market year on record, falling between 2002 (62,625 sales) and 2003 (73,785 sales) numbers.
"The local resale housing market, since 1982, has been fairly stable, representing 7 percent of the single-family inventory, while the 2005 indicator stood at 11 percent," Butler said. "The 2006 housing market stands at 6 percent of inventory which is comparable to the housing markets of the mid-1990s."
David lereah is going to be hilary's little B@tch.How do you know when the two are lieing, their lips move.
In Naples, Florida the real estate association has decided not to report their statistics to the State association. They are unhappy with the numbers and want to be solely in control of reporting the numbers.
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2007/jan/20/realtors_board_wont_send_numbers_state/?print=1
Remember it is pronounced Luh Ruh, rhymes with duh!
Let them eat cake
Stocks Fall Sharply, Bond Yields Jump
Thursday January 25, 2:46 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Fall Sharply As Investors Look to Bond Market
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks pulled back sharply Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrials down more than 100 points, as investors grew concerned over a lackluster report on sales of existing homes.
Hey Widgetmaker!
So you sold 1800 widgets. But... since demand was so great, you bought machinery to make more widgets faster (using debt) and also bought options on raw materials.
Go ahead and liquidate!
More Lereah Liar:
Let’s be clear, though. The sky never did actually fall in 2006— or, to use that phrase that the media love, there were no “bubbles” bursting. But air did come out of some inflated balloons. According to our National Association of REALTORS® latest estimates for last year, existing home sales were down 8.2 percent from a year earlier. Similarly, new home sales were down 17.4 percent and housing starts were down 12.5 percent. Our nation’s housing sector suffered a contraction, inhibiting overall GDP growth.
http://www.realtor.org/reinsights.nsf/pages/economistcommentary?opendocument
To the widget salesman -
How many widget buyers purchased your widgets using questionable financing arrangements with long term contracts and derivatives formulas that most people don't understand?
Let me put it in terms that a widget saleman can understand.
Widgets are not houses and houses are not widgets. You are at the tip of the iceberg.
Is panic starting today?
3rd best year ever for real estate sales and you jokers say we're in a crash. Whatever.
LOL listening to the crash denier trolls in full screech and spin mode. Of course, since housing has bottomed, I don't know why they don't go out and buy more while the rest of us miss the bus. Maybe trolling for the REIC pays better than homedebtorship these days.
Sales crashed in 1989 too. 18 years later median home price nationally is double 1989's price.
Oh but I know, I know, this time it's different.
"3rd best year ever for real estate sales and you jokers say we're in a crash. Whatever."
Don't listen to HP'ers. I'd suggest you talk to anyone in the REIC. They're F'd and they know it.
You might also want to talk to the millions who bought in 2005 and 2006 and are now well on their way to foreclosure and bankruptcy.
Or talk to the tens of millions who did cash-out refi's against their phantom equity. Yup, they're F'd too.
Or maybe talk to the millions of illegal hispanic workers who are now out of work and angry.
Yup, lots of folks to talk to. Just do it.
Yes, I sold 1800 widgets in 2006, all with granite countertops and cash back financing. Once I made a $0.05 profit per widget, now I lose a penny per every widget I sell out of inventory. Yeah, business is great!
Anonymous said...
Did any of you advance past 8th grade? I swear, it's like reading middle schoolers here with the lack of analysis and critical thinking.
It's funny that Mr. Widget criticizes HPers and then goes on to make his idiotic statement.
In HPland I would be closing up shop even though my sales are up 80% over 5 years.
I guess Mr. Widget hasn't seen the news over the last six months. Mortgage brokers, realtors, appraisers and other members of the REIC ARE being forced out of business because of falling sales. Mr. Widget also hasn't seen the news regarding REIC investigations.
Thank you Mr. Widget for proving that HPers who never "advanced past the 8th grade" can thoroughly intellectually trounce widget (real estate) sales people.
Try 3rd best year ever for speculative sales which are now being foreclosed or cancelled.
Go ahead buy now before the prices go up!!!
Oppsie
Hey Widget man
Tell that to the abandoned house behind me and the 3 neighbors on my block who have been trying to sell since last april.
anon, said:
Let me put in in terms you renters can understand. I have a business selling widgets. In 2001 I sell 1000 widgets. In 2002 I sell 1200. In 2003 i sell 1400. In 2004 I am up to 1900. In 2005 I am at 2000. Then in 2006, thing slow down and I am "ONLY" selling 1800 widgets.
In HPland I would be closing up shop even though my sales are up 80% over 5 years.
Here is another possibility on viewing this..
in 2001 i bought a Widget for $100
in 2002 my neighbor sold his Widget for $200
in 2003 my other neighbor sold his Widget $300, now i'm thinking since the value of Widgets are increasing (who cares why) i can take out a $200 loan from the bank against my Widget (since its worth at least $300), everyone else on my street is thinking the same, the whole neighborhood is quitting their jobs and going into the Widget business, some are manufacturing them others are becoming widget dealers, Widget seminars everywhere, word has it if you dont get in now you may end up paying $10k a Widget, sub widget industries are being created by selling 'how to books' financing education.
by 2005 average price of Widgets are $650.. some sideliners are saying this must be some kind of bubble, it just does not make sense why the increase in value.
Oh. say the Widget dealers.. cant you see Money is cheap Foreigners are buying up every single Widget people are waiting in line outbidding each other before the Widget even hits the mold, this time its different.
By 2006 most people cant really afford Widgets anymore. But the Widget companies keep pumping out Widgets, their costs has increased several 100% due to material shortages, by 2007 there are Widgets on every old Farm Land, Apple Orchards, old run down neighborhoods, widgets widgets widgets everywhere.. but no one can afford them
Companies cant afford to drop the price and loose money, Widget dealers are claiming the reason no one is buying is cause things need to level out a little and by mid 2007 it should all get back to ‘normal’ and widgets will begin selling like hotcakes for a median price of $640.
But if things don’t pick up (cause people cant afford to pay more than $100) then what ?
Widgets will sit and just rust out for several years till the cycle begins again.
Hey widget maker.
Why should I buy your widgets? What’s the incentive? I've got thousands of other widgets to choose from.
Moreover, a lot of folks that bought widgets in the last few years cannot afford the payments on their widget any longer, thus adding to the inventory of widgets, and adding to the number of folks that will not be able to afford another widget any time soon.
Furthermore, with all the widgets you have on the market, you can’t afford to make any more widgets, so you must lay off some of your widget makers. Now that those widget makers are without jobs….they can no longer afford their own widget.
Even more, with being barley able to afford their widget, folks will stop going out and purchasing after-market widget cozies. The widget cozy maker sees a drop in cozy sales and decides to lay off a few widget cozy makers. Those widget cozy makers are now out of a job, how are they to afford their own widget?
Credit bubble chasing real estate.
Credit bubble chasing real estate.
If the unwashed masses had been going apesh*t over widgets for the past five to ten years and borrowed heavilly to purchase said widgets, with terms that many of them would have major problems adhering to, this blog would be called Widget Panic.
You are at the point just before the negative g force gets going and you get that tickly feeling in your stomach. Like when a small airplane breaks away from straight and level flight and begins a sudden descent.
Psssst... hey buddy pssssssttt.
Could I interest you in a slightly used widget, real cheap. I don't do that for everybody but I'll let you have one real cheap 'cause you look like a nice guy.
GOT GOLD
man did you you all miss the point of the widgets story. The more I read this blog the more I realize how utterly dense you people are.
Buy your widgets in Temecula, big scandal, apparently some people got involved with buying over 1 Billion in widgets, but borrowed 25% more than the they bought the widget for to make the payments widget payments on the other widgets.
One day they stopped making payments on the widgets, widgets everywhere. Widgets can't be refianced because the equity in the widgets has gone negative.
Can't get 100% financing on a widget, widget holder (bank is the owner) can't refinance, credit is tightening, holding the widgets cost to much.
Widgets are like tulips, when their in demand it's great, when speculation takes out fundamentals it's look out below.
I never seen this behavior before including the 1990's bubble.
Widgets are worth no more than 150k in most markets excluding the coast. 20% Down and 30 year financing being the norm.
Anonymous said...
Sales crashed in 1989 too. 18 years later median home price nationally is double 1989's price.
Oh but I know, I know, this time it's different.
Thursday, January 25, 2007 9:19:06 PM
------
The problem is that the doubling of median housing that you speak of just happened in the last 3-5 years in Metro DC/NoVa. Before the doubling, home prices actually took 15 years to recover from the last bubble bursting here in Metro DC/NoVa. Thus with a bubble of twice the scale of the last, presumably it will take twice as long ot recover front the burst barring other factors.
Is the "3rd best year on record" stat adjusted for population?
Anonymous said...
man did you you all miss the point of the widgets story. The more I read this blog the more I realize how utterly dense you people are.
Thursday, January 25, 2007 11:18:49 PM
-----
Conversely the same could be said for you. I think best not to judge but to wait and see how events unfold before deciding which widget scenario correlates best to the real estate bubble as it plays out.
Hey, if you buy my widget I will refund you 20k at closing, look at Craigs list and cherry pick. First call the ones who are claiming the need to sell because of a job transfer, than move onto the ones that claim they weren't flippers.
Can I assume these same sellers would of cut me a deal because I tell them I can't afford the list price? Would they say Steve, your a nice guy so we will sell you this house for what we bought it at back in 2002? Doubt it, lick your wounds and move on.
You'd think with this housing crash home builder stocks would be in the dumper. Yet YTD DHI is up 11% and 38% over the past 6 months.
And yes children I know DHI tanked the 1st half of last year. That predicted what is happening now and predicted very well. The 38% runup since then 11% rise is predicting what will be happening 6-9 months from now, meaning the worst is over renters.
See renters, stock prices are an indicator of the FUTURE not the past. 2006 was a shitty year for anyone involved in housing including builders. Looking forward Wall St. is giving a definite thumbs up for 2007.
Enjoy the 1 bed/1 bath apt renters, you'll be there anotehr 20 years.
@anon 11:18:49 PM:
'the fool or the fool who follows?
;-)
This cycle is just like the one in Florida that popped in 1926, but this time it's national in scope! google: 1926 florida real estate bust.
ROTFLMFAO, I hope you all got a chair to sit in when the music stops playing, 'cause it ain't gonna be pretty.
I'll do a 1926 post tomorrow - one of my all-time favorite crashes for sure!
Anonymous said...
You'd think with this housing crash home builder stocks would be in the dumper. Yet YTD DHI is up 11% and 38% over the past 6 months.
And yes children I know DHI tanked the 1st half of last year. That predicted what is happening now and predicted very well. The 38% runup since then 11% rise is predicting what will be happening 6-9 months from now, meaning the worst is over renters.
See renters, stock prices are an indicator of the FUTURE not the past. 2006 was a shitty year for anyone involved in housing including builders. Looking forward Wall St. is giving a definite thumbs up for 2007.
Enjoy the 1 bed/1 bath apt renters, you'll be there anotehr 20 years.
Thursday, January 25, 2007 11:29:03 PM
Wow, one stock doing half assed, what about all the other HB stocks? They seem to be sucking.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=DHI
Why buy now when prices are still bubbly? Would you pay $45K for a Ford Taurus that's worth $17K? So why pay $400K for a house that was worth $200K a few years ago? That house is 3 years older, so it should have come down in value, not up.
Just like a used car loses value with usage and time, so should a house.
I overpaid for a house. I thought I was cool. I guess I was wrong
It's a market miracle, home prices fail to fall ;-)
For all of 2006, sales fell 8.4% to 6.48 million, the third highest total ever, but the largest percentage decline since 1982.
For the year, median sales prices rose 1.1%.
"There was no bubble burst in 2006," Lereah said. "We know the speculative buyers left in 2006," he said.
anon said:
man did you you all miss the point of the widgets story. The more I read this blog the more I realize how utterly dense you people are.
---------------------------------
Would please be so kind and lower yourself to our utterly dense level and explain in greater detail what you really meant, i'm sure a genius like yourself knows how to talk to little people like us WPers
Anon 11:29:03, they may be up from the last 6 months, but these are YoY LOSSES for each builder :
DHI - -24.17%
CTX - -26.71%
PHM - -15.81%
KBH - -30.26%
NVR - -12.39%
TOL - -3.67%
RYL - -23.76%
They brought up the price by shedding costs (workers and land) and putting "fake" sales in the books (cancellation is WAY up). Stocks don't predict the housing market.
Today I saw 2 houses come BACK ON the market and a $25K price drop on another. Another 2 came online as well. People are going to start putting their houses up as spring arrives...hope the buyers are willing! LOL!
Oh, 2BR/2BA...mortgage would be twice as much as rent. Oh, then add taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Add this to a month-to-month rent...yeah, I feel terrible.
If the number of widgets sold decreases and you're still making widgets, doesnt the widget pyramid scheme collapse thereby crushing the last few widget buyers.
Sure, 2006 was the 3rd best year, 2007 will be the 4th best year, 2008, the 5th best year etc. For some reason the trolls on this board can't see the TREND, which is most definitely DOWN.
"2006 was a shitty year for anyone involved in housing including builders. Looking forward Wall St. is giving a definite thumbs up for 2007."
You are a total idiot. The stock market is a TERRIBLE indicator of future activity and doesn't predict anything. You should read Mish's blog for a complete breakdown of good, not so good, and bad future indicators. M' (prime) is a great indicator and it says "recession dead ahead". 10Yr to 3M yield curve is pretty good and it says "recession dead ahead." M2 is average and M3 is worthless. The stock market has no future predictive capabilities at all and is essentially random in this regard. It's more of a trailing indicator, if anything.
I don't have to remind you that the stock market will react negatively to the coming recession.
Thanks 11:46:24 PM for the link to the stock prices of DR Horton and most of the related homebuilders and home related companies.
Anon 11:29:03 PM, what are the prices of all the other companies predicting? What future were 1929 stock prices predicting? What future was the nasdaq predicting in 1999?
Enjoy renting that money from the bank, FB, you'll be doing it for another 20 years.
It appears the "all is well" posts are coming from just 1 person.
If you believe we've seen the bottom, then are you putting $ on that horse?
I shorted Lennar(LEN) yesterday at $53 and change and plan to sit on that short for awhile. The stock took a nice hit today following the release of Dec's. existing home sales and I fully expect such news to only get worse.
Between 1 and 1 1/2 trillion worth of adjustables due to reset this year. Even if interest rates hadn't have gone up recently, how many "owners" would be ready to make "real" payments? Unfortunately for them, rates have gone up, inventory has gone up, prices are dropping and hope is declining for Fed cuts anytime soon.
So, Mr/Mrs "all is well" please explain your position with something a little more substantial than this widget BS.
"See renters, stock prices are an indicator of the FUTURE not the past."
Sorry Skippy. That's just Goldman Sachs squeezing some shorts for easy money. Happens all the time. You're not invited. Next they'll shank it to finish off the other half of the tards who think the stock market has anything to do with fundamentals, including you.
To the person who wrote the long and involved widget analogy:
That was friggin' funny!
Sadly, it was also true.
Thoughtful and insightful as well.
Funny for the "bitter renters" like me!
Sadly true for the home/debt/slaves.
Thoughtful & insightful for us all!
Thanks for sharing!
As the head economist of the National Association of Widget Makers, or NAW as most people know us, I'd like to remind our 1.3 million dues paying member that it is once again time to cough up some annual membership bucks.
Yes, I do realize things have been a little tough on widget makers out in the field this year, but I'm going to spend $40 million dollars of widget bucks to reignite sales interest in 2007.
Stay tuned for our newest TV campaign theme "it's a great time to buy and sell widgets!"
Thanks for your continued support....
Bring back Jerry Ford and W.I.N.!!!
I'm also pleased to announce the formation of the Widget Listing Service, or WLS as it will be known in lawsuits. The WLS will be a closed, monopolistic classified service available only to members of National Association of Widget Makers (NAW) for the purpose of selling your widgets.
Each regional WLS will be independently owned to avoid implicating other WLS's should wrongdoing be detected.
These WLS's will be used to control all price data on widgets, and will report this bogus data to the press and the government. Neither of them will question the integrity of our numbers, because they're to lazy to count anything themselves.
Effective immediately, you will be a able to pay a fee and relist any widgets that you have for sale that have lingered on the market without buyers. We will also have built in security weaknesses in the software system that will allow you to change the serial numbers on widgets to further confuse customers.
Last, as soon as all widgets receive a sales contract, you should immediately change the retail widget price to match the contract sales price, so that we may continue to report that widgets are being sold for 100% of their average sales prices to list pricres.
Thanks for your support, and we're working hard to support you in the field.
Anonymous said...
"See renters, stock prices are an indicator of the FUTURE not the past. 2006 was a shitty year for anyone involved in housing including builders. Looking forward Wall St. is giving a definite thumbs up for 2007."
------------------------------------
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair
In the linked article below, David is quoted as saying, "With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing home market."
Make sure the link is all on one line.
http://money.excite.com/jsp/nw/
nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&feed=
ap&src=601§ion=news&news_id=
ap-d8mskf6g0&date=20070125&alias=
/alias/money/cm/nw
There's nothing wrong with a janitor buying a $750,000 house if he wants it. It's his American Dream, so you bitter jealous renters just leave these homeowners alone
At this point, I'd say that Baghdad Bob had an easier job than Dave Lereah.
I thought traders were supposed to be smart. There's a lot of people with very thick skulls that keep buying homebuilders and sub prime mortgage lenders that are keeping those stocks levitated.
>Yet YTD DHI is up 11% and >38% over the past 6 >months.
I see approximately 15 in DHI's future,just quickly eyeballing that chart. I'd give a more accurate number but don't want to waste my time on it. DHI is toast, regardless of the recent, and predictable, dead cat bounce.
Hey, wait a minute!
The Next Big Widget Thing is of course tulips. I already reserved a call option for three million tulips from Holland. You guys are so late. :) :) I am going to be soooo rich! Flower power!
He makes me want to vomit.
No seriously, I start heaving when I think of that bumbling fool.
"See renters, stock prices are an indicator of the FUTURE not the past. 2006 was a shitty year for anyone involved in housing including builders. Looking forward Wall St. is giving a definite thumbs up for 2007.
Enjoy the 1 bed/1 bath apt renters, you'll be there anotehr 20 years."
Stock prices today (speaking broadly - there are exceptions) speak to the idiocy of the masses and their inability to think independently or critically.
"See renters, stock prices are an indicator of the FUTURE not the past. 2006 was a shitty year for anyone involved in housing including builders. Looking forward Wall St. is giving a definite thumbs up for 2007.
Enjoy the 1 bed/1 bath apt renters, you'll be there anotehr 20 years."
Definite thumbs up??? Thumbs up the bunghole is more like it.
I guess the NASDAQ at 5250 in March 2000 was an indicator of the great things to come from 2000-2003.
How dare you all disparage widget man and the esteemed DL. After all this is the 3rd best year for home sales EVER!. You JBR's are now forever priced out! I'm going to run out and get me a payment option arm and get the most expensive house the lendors will let me buy! After it appreciates 15% a year for 3 years I'll be rich! Mabey I'll get 2, no 3, no 5 houses. I'm counting the days to retirement!
just kidding.
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