January 20, 2007

Desperate Homebuilders Association ad: "If you continue to wait, you may never be able to afford to get into the housing market"


After the NAR's failed $40 Million campaign, the local Orlando builders decided to take matters in their own hands, with this soon-to-be-called-failed $1 Million ad buy and website of distortion.

Alas, the bubble bloggers don't have $1 Million or $40 Million to compete against these disinformation campaigns. But maybe one day we can do a swift-boat, someone mock up a print ad, let's run it in one paper, and then let the MSM do the $40 Million ad buy for us with all of their pack reporting on the ad.

Hmmm...

Anyone with design skills and a sense of humor send me your best bubble buster ad and I'll post.

Here's the homebuilders ad buy and hilarious Q&A:

Home Builders Media Blitz: $1 million, 6-week Campaign to Revive Sales in Metro Orlando

RISMEDIA, Jan. 22, 2007-The Home Builders Association of Metro Orlando kicked off a marketing campaign this week to encourage "fence sitters" that now really is a good time to buy a home in the Orlando area.

As a first-time buyer, should I wait until prices go lower to buy a home?

No.

If you continue to wait, you may never be able to afford to get into the housing market.

Even as home prices are currently moderating - or even falling in some areas - rents continue to climb.

If I wait to buy a new home, won't prices go down even lower?

Timing the market isn't a great idea.

All the market fundamentals show that now is a good time to buy

Is it better to wait until the economic picture is clearer so my house will appreciate?

No.

Isn't it better to "play it safe" and keep renting until things are more certain?

No.

The best way to "play it safe" is to actually buy a home.

Should I wait to sell my house until I can get the same price my neighbor sold their house for?

No.

It's always better to trade up in a buyer's market like the one we are in now. While the value of your house has fallen, the price of higher-end homes has also dropped.

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

.
.

that's a joke, right?

ntsteve said...

In the bottom right corner:
http://www.realopportunitycfl.com/opp_financial.php

If they claim real estate in "on the skids", shouldn't buyers see how far the market will slide? This market is on a downward slope, too much momentum to even close to being considered a buyers market....

Also, in the mortgage calculator where do you put the HOA fees, taxes and hurricqane insurance?

How buyers could save the housing market

With real estate on the skids, which matters more to potential buyers: declining mortgage rates or falling home prices?

Anonymous said...

Relawhore clerks are desperate for a commission.

keith said...

this should put things into perspective - the homebuilder ad, pets.com version:


As someone who doesn't own pets.com, should I wait until prices go lower to buy some?

No.


If you continue to wait, you may never be able to afford pets.com again.

Even as pets.com stock is falling, not owning pets.com could cost you money


If I wait to buy pets.com stock, won't prices go down even lower?

Timing the pets.com stock isn't a great idea.

All the market fundamentals show that now is a good time to buy pets.com stock


Is it better to wait until the economic picture is clearer to buy pets.com stock?

No.


Isn't it better to "play it safe" and keep out of pets.com stock until things are more certain?

No.

The best way to "play it safe" is to actually buy pets.com stock today!

Should I wait to sell my pets.com stock until I can get the same price my friend sold their pets.com stock for earlier?

No.

It's always better to trade up in a buyer's market like the one we are in now, and double down on your pets.com stock position.

Paul E. Math said...

From that website:

"There's a lot of noise in the real estate marketplace today; conflicting opinions, contradictory facts and private interests with private agendas to go with them.

This website has been created to serve only one interest - that of today's homebuyer. Here we will separate facts from opinions to help homebuyers take advantage of the special conditions that exist in the market today, and to make truly informed choices about buying a new home."

That's just an insult. To say "other people have private agendas but we don't, we've got your back" is just patently false. The website is pure self-interested sales collateral. You would have to be very gullible to believe otherwise. Which, obviously, is what the Homebuilders Association thinks homebuyers are. And perhaps they're right.

keith said...

the ads and website are disgusting. more lies and spin from the REIC.

Wonder if the MSM will call them out. Probably not, since they're paying the (advertising) bills

This made me want to puke though. It's our civic duty to attack this one hard.

Anonymous said...

Desperate Homebuilders Association ad: "If you continue to wait, you may never be able to afford to get into the housing market"


Most of us are waiting because we can't afford this market!

Anonymous said...

IS THE SKY BLUE?

No, buy a house.

IS WATER WET?

No, buy a damn house!

IS THE SUN HOT?

No, buy a jkdhfhasfhkjgkj house!!!!

IS ICE COLD?

Listen a$$hole, quit asking stupid questions and just buy a fshafhas sfhsguh ashfuhgfu house, for the love of god!!!!!!!

sk said...

Some great suggestions in here.

Here's is another - illustrate their "Timing isn't a great idea" message with counter visuals ofa batsman clean-bowled(no, wait, this is the USofA, lets try a batter swinging and missing), a muffed serve in tennis, the buy points on the way down of ENRON stock and so on.

-K

cool hand luke said...

Uh oh, “Rents continue to climb.” I better go call one of those crooked clerks right now!

“After six weeks of failing to lure more than a couple of dozen buyers, Mr. Franco and his partner, Jeff Blum, joined the builders of nearly 6,000 condominium units in the Washington metropolitan area who have decided in the last three months to recast their projects as rental apartment buildings.”

“They have a choice of how they want to lose it,” Mr. Murphy said of investors and condo developers. “Drip by drip or in one slap.”

Click Here

Anonymous said...

the ad says you shouldn't attempt to time the market

yet by urging people to buy now before they are priced out the ad is actually encouraging people to time the market

the whole ad kinda reminds me of that Kenny Rogers song, "Desperado"

Veronica Lodge said...

All the market fundamentals show that now is a good time to buy.

Market fundamentals!?!

What market fundamentals show that the last six year's annual double-digit appreciation of real estate is not based on bubble mania?

What market fundamentals show that buyers who can't afford to buy overpriced homes will ultimately benefit from taking out no money down, interest-only loans?

What market fundamentals show that real estate prices will continue to rise once the gimmicky loans dry up?

The market fundamentals show that the real estate market is played out and that prices have nowhere to go but down.

Danilo Bogdanovic said...

Here is one of the biggest lines of BS I have heard in a while:

"This website has been created to serve only one interest - that of today's homebuyer."

That is fundamentally impossible because the site is run by the Home Builders Association of Metro Orlando.

Do they really think people are that stupid? Anyone checking out that site should be insulted!

I also like this line:

"Investors drove prices to new heights in the first half of the decade, so they could flip purchases for profit"

Umm...the builders were the ones that set the prices and sold the homes to investors so they are primarily to blame, not the investors.

Unbelievable...

JAFO said...

Can you even get a homeowners insurance policy down there in Florida for your brand new, still overpriced stucco palace? Christ, I think the premiums are more than the mortgage payments now. Good Luck....

JAFO

Anonymous said...

All right. They've broken my resistance and answered all my questions.

Even though I wish Suzanne would have helped me research this, I'm heading out to buy a new house right now!!

oh, wait... American Idol just came on TV... cool!

Signed,
Dumbed Down, Media Fed, Ignorant Victimized American

Anonymous said...

Any lawyer types out there interested in filing a suit for false advertising? Several of those points could be candidates. Certainly in the securities markets they would be. False advertising is illegal in the automobile market; don't think the issue has come up in the home market yet.

bozonian said...

Be of good cheer.

I think it's pretty obvious that everyone who is, and was idiotic enough to buy a house after 2003 has done so already.

The entire reason for the "top" we are seeing is that all the stupid money has been harvested.

Since the builders keep building, there's nothing anyone can do to stop the upcoming price plummet in all the bubble markets.

Lower interest rates? They'd have to go to -10%. You'd have to PAY me to take your money to invest in an asset that will only lose value (a house).

Government bail out of overstretched homeowners? That will only demonstrate how bad it is to buy a house. Though it may save some home owners, it won't stop prices from going down.

It's over. The crash is inevitable and it's going to be worse that any of us are contemplating. Because by the time it's over, people will be so spooked about housing, they will stay away in droves. Prices will decline 70% in Los Angeles, New York, Boston and Miami.

Don't short the home builders. They can keep on cranking and still be profitable. However, the mortgage lenders who hold the mortgages that are going to default and the bonds that are made from these bad loans will also tank.

NEW New Century Financial has a PE of 4.6! That's a hated stock already and AHM isn't much better at 7.6. Next step, negative EPS. Asta la vista baby!

bozonian said...

Franky, I don't give a rat's ass about people getting ripped off due to their own greed, stupidity and gullibility.

As long as it leads to lower prices so I can upgrade into an appreciating asset.

It's about time the American consumer and government got the wake up call. Without production of value, living off debt can only last so long.

I have this feeling in my gut. It's the same one I had during the Tech Bubble. In the end, sanity and the laws of nature prevail over fantasy. We've been living in this cushioned little world with elves and wizards and "aroma therapy" for too long. Time to pay the piper.

Anonymous said...

cool hand luke said...
Uh oh, “Rents continue to climb.” I better go call one of those crooked clerks right now!
--------------------

I've rented 2 places from 2001-present. The only rent increase I got was a $5.00 inc in 2003.

Anonymous said...

If you don't own one or more homes by now, you've already been priced out. You might as well kill yourself now, bitter renters

Anonymous said...

KEITH:

I have been reading and posting to this blog for over 1 year.

I think its time to post that wave chart again and ask...

where are the homebuilders at?

I think this one just slid past the denial point.

Anonymous said...

Here is another realtor ad from Michael Saunders. She is probably the largest agency in the Sarasota, Florida area. I wouldn't be surprised if Leahrah is handing out money and talking points for these ads. I think we'll be seeing more this spring as they pull out all the stops to get sales going again. She has a blog so I think she would like to hear from all of you. http://tinyurl.com/33zf63

Anonymous said...

WTF are you idiots yapping about now? Median Orlando price in 12/06 was up 4.2% over 12/05.


Orlando's hot housing market lost much of its spark in the second half of 2006, though the year still wound up as the second-best on record for local existing-home sales.

The Orlando Regional Realtor Association reported Wednesday that 27,378 homes were sold last year through its members in the core Orlando market, down from the record 31,230 sold in 2005 but ahead of the 26,088 transactions in 2004.

Even as sales fell last year compared with 2005 -- they were down more than 12 percent -- the median price of the homes sold in 2006 continued to rise: The December median -- half the homes sold for less, half for more -- was up 4.2 percent to $250,000 compared with December a year ago.


http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orange/orl-mhomes1107jan11,0,2579076.story?coll=orl-news-headlines-orange

foxwoodlief said...

Moving back to Phoenix. I don't want to live in the burbs! Rent? Been looking for three weeks since my wife has to be back at her job by Feb 12th. Guess what, no bargains in rent unless I want to drive in from Buckeye, Queen Creek, Maricopa! The best rent I've seen is $1200 for a 1 bedroom co-op 17th floor with views and includes all utilities but then I looked at buying a 2 bedroom on that floor in 2002 and PITI and Utilities (inclued in HOA) was $1200 and now I get the privelege of a one bedroom and to rent? Small 2/1 houses in the Willow (1000 sqft) $1245 plus utilities. Most the homes in Central/east Phoenix? $1400-2500 to rent! When I lived in Phoenix my PITI wasn't that!

So please, don't tell me renting is cheaper. I'm going to end up paying more to rent in Phoenix that I pay PITI on my 3250 sq ft hillside home in Austin but the wife (and I've heard you guys bash them) wants to go back to her old job and her friends and the dry desert climate.

I don't believe in the tooth fairy and I don't believe I'll see 2002 prices again.

Anonymous said...

the realtroll says the orlando market is doing great. that must be why the homebuilders had to spend $1 million on a deceptive ad to lure the last suckers into buying a home. maybe the realtroll should start buying up some condos in orlando to flip.

it's strange how these realtrolls keep claiming the market is great, yet there's so much inventory. why don't the realtrolls buy up all the homes for sale? if a homeless guy can get loans to buy a dozen homes, the realtrolls should be able to buy at least half of that.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget the price numbers don't include the crazy incentives



A total of 276 existing condos changed hands in Orlando in
November for a 41 percent decrease over the 467 condos sold the previous
year. The market's median existing condo price was $171,800; a year ago, it
was $182,400 for a 6 percent decrease.

Shakster said...

It would take a few months of research,and study of construction,and financing to make yourself immune to any real estate/broker bubbles,and busts.

Shakster said...

BTW-Anyone buying a house from a major home builder should insist upon solar,and wind power along with tax credits tossed into the deal.Not only will you get the power systems for pennies,and super low to nill energy bills,you will also have the benefit of all the energy you need,or even want to waste,but also you will have the advantage of being able to sell for a higher price,and faster sale too.Make the builder throw it in for free ,IOW "shark their arses"Hey,Time for operation Shark-n flippers.

Anonymous said...

I rather like the myth that's been going around lately about how one might be priced out of the market forever. This only makes sense if you think that your economic peers are going to be getting substantially larger raises than you are in the future. Because those are the people with whom you will be competing to purchase housing. If your income roughly tracks theirs then you will be able to on average over the long haul afford the same kinds of places.

Anonymous said...

Foxwoodlief,

Check out Sun City West. My mother in law just rented a very nice 1400 sq ft townhome two blocks from the library and commercial center for 850/month. A few of these units are for sale with an asking price of 225K.

Anonymous said...

Foxwood,

Those rents are what the would like to GET. All those invesors are overleveraged. Either pick up some cheaper foreclosures (THEY ARE THERE) or lowball about 10 places and get one to bite!

Rents are lower, you just have to hit them with reality and get one to take it. If you hit 10, you will get a taker. Good Luck!

LauraVella said...

Fox said:"Moving back to Phoenix. I don't want to live in the burbs! Rent? Been looking for three weeks since my wife has to be back at her job by Feb 12th. Guess what, no bargains in rent unless I want to drive in from Buckeye, Queen Creek, Maricopa!"

Check out Craigs List Phoenix, there might be something reasonable-its a great website.

gt said...

"you may never be able to afford to get into the housing market"

so they are saying there soon will be NO more first-time homebuyers? wow that is a heck of an allegation!

realtroll said...

HURRY UP AND BUY BEFORE YOU ARE PRICED OUT FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!

foxwoodlief said...

Thanks Lauravella and Annonymous. I've been looking on Craigslist. Having lived in Phoenix twice for a total of sixteen years and my wife a total of twenty, we are pretty picky about where we want to live.

Phoenix is one of those cities that if you don't live in the right neighborhood the city, especially in the summer, can be hellish. There are a lot of scummy, not kept up areas. The REIC there isn't interested in creating a vibrant, livable city, only building cracker boxes and moving further out into the desert.

My wife's job is at 44th st/Thomas area and I may be working in Central Phoenix or out off Power road. I hate commuting but if I take a job out in Mesa the hours allow me to miss rush out out and back. I'd never live east of Papago Park and I really don't want to live west of 15th ave unless we both were working out west. All our friends live in Peoria or Goodyear and I like Litchfield Park (where we use to live) but not to drive into Phoenix to work.

So, putting in the parameters, even on Craigslist I haven't found that many great bargains in the areas I want, Willow, FQ Story, N Central, Arcadia. As I said, I don't want to pay $1300 and up to rent a small 1400 sq ft or smaller place.

I emailed a realtor on a house I saw for sale, in the Cherry Lynn historic district, ridiculous price at $234 a sq ft! They want $275,000 for a small 1100 sq ft house that I looked at a few years ago for $120,000 and thought expensive. I told him that here in Austin you can buy new, hillside lot, solid brick and rock construction with every upgrade for $110-140 a sq ft and Austin is a much nicer place to live. Haven't heard back yet.

So, I hope when I am out there face to face looking for a rental I'll see how much leverage there is. I have seen a couple of new condos downtown for $1300 that I know are at least $1,000 less than if I bought so maybe I'll have to go that route for now.

Thanks for your input.

David said...

Keith,

I stand with you in attacking this pathertic ad campaign. Home Builders Association of Metro Orlando Engages in Scare Tactics, Self Contradictions, and Lies To Sell Homes

http://tinyurl.com/2t7cka

David
Bubble Meter Blog

foxwoodlief said...

Well, our home in Austin has been on the MLS for less than 24 hours and we've had ten viewings today and one more scheduled at 5pm. I'm surprised. With January and all I thought, not going to be much traffic until March...that call this morning while I was still in bed saying they'd be here in 15 minutes! Then busy all day. At this rate I would think a contract within two or three weeks if not this week (three buyers need to move in quickly and can't wait for new but want new and this house is nine months old).

Even my realtor is shocked by the traffic for this time of year. We priced the house, not for what it is worth, not for what it would cost to replace, but what was below what the builders could compete with since they can't build this house and sell it at my price. I'll still get my down back, pay all my costs, taxes, etc, and still make 10% profit after all expenses for living here nine months. Couldn't have done that renting.

I bought when Austin was just coming out of a four year slump, the builder was motivated and gave me lots of upgrades and then found the lot I selected to cost more to develope than thought ($70,000) more because of site prep, blasting out the granite mountain side, landscaping, driveways, the redesign of the elevation, then put a custom builder's brick on the house by mistake (delivered to wrong site) costing another $8,000, etc. and I had only paid $105 a sq ft for the house. Cheap by Austin standards for a hillside semi-custom build. I'm priced $50,000 less than the builder spec home on the street on a 1/4 acre lot (I'm on a half acre) on a flat street (I'm on the hill) and where all the houses backyards look into each other (I'm completely private with hill country views).

Never overpay and you'll never loose money.

Anonymous said...

And you're giving that up to move back to that Phoenix Hell hole!! You have to be a sick puppy!!
Good Luck anyway !! You'll need it!!

Anonymous said...

"You may never be able to get into the housing market..."

"So, are they saying that soon there will be NO first time buyers?"

Yeah, I guess that's EXACTLY what they're saying.

Thanks for parsing realtor speak for us, gt.

Anonymous said...

Hurry up everyone. Go out and buy a house. I'm sure it'll look spectacular with all that new furniture. Sure it's Rent-a-Center Furniture, but nobody has to know that. Just sign on the line sucker.

What? You're worried about how we stated your income at triple what you're making. Don't worry. Before long your three kids will also be making minimum wage also. And even though you're an ER janitor, we're sure you'll be a doctor soon. So when's that lease up on your Escalade???

Anonymous said...

Why don't I see ads that promote rising Interests. Everybodys says, buy now, because of Low Interest Rates. But if they rise, that would force the Home Prices to get lower. The ideal situation would be to buy a home with a High Interest rate, and low Home Price. Because if you buy at a low Home Price, then you could always lower in the future when rates fall. By then you have equity, and a lower payment. Do they really think, that with High Interest rates and High Home Prices, that anyone would afford it? I live in Cali, and am waiting to buy my first home, but at 600K, who could afford a 5K payment?