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January 21, 2007
BUBBLETALK - Open thread to talk about the housing collapse
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 205 of 205I live in Lawrence, KS which the mid-point between Kansas City and the Capitol, Topeka. It's a 1/2 hour commute to either city from here. We still have quite a bit of construction going on here in Lawrence and people are still buying homes. Construction has slowed some and prices are not rising as quickly as they have in the past 4 years but we have not seen a price reversal yet.
One of the things that has kept our prices high is the inflow of buyers from the Kansas City area.
US Census data shows that in 2000 Kansas City had a population of 146,866 and in 2003 it fell to 145,757 a decline of almost 1000 just within the city limits.
On the other hand Lawrence shows a different picture...
In 2000 the data shows Lawrence with a population of 80,098 and in 2003 we had a population of 82,120 an increase of more then 2000...
Topeka has also shed some of its population to us with a decline of almost 400 residence between 2000 and 2003... (122,377 to 122,008 in 2003)
Lawrence seems to be in a sweet spot between two dwindling metropolises, other US cities might also enjoy population shedding from similar larger cites and are places to keep your eye on for price resilience if the bubble were to blow.
Tanya
HTTP://www.TanyaKulaga.com
Price increases YOY when sales are off by factors of 25% indicate absurdity in the prices, and the inevitabilty of a large fall in the prices. This is familiar to any grocery shopper who has seen a "sale" sign. Drop price, increase unit sales. Unit sales down, drop price.
OPEC nations are unloading Treasuries at the fastest pace in more than three years as crude oil prices tumble, sending bond yields higher.
Exporters including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, sold 9.4 percent, or $10.1 billion, of their U.S. government debt securities in the three months ended in November, according to Treasury Department data. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last sold Treasuries for three straight months in June 2003.
Oil producers have surpassed Asian central banks as the largest pool of global savings, accumulating an estimated $500 billion in 2006 alone, according to research by Pacific Investment Management Co. The sales during those three months mark a reversal because OPEC countries have boosted their holdings of U.S. government bonds by 70 percent to $97 billion in the past 17 months, Treasury data show.
``There will be a significant sell-off,'' Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate and economics professor at Columbia University in New York, said in an interview. ``Medium-term and long-term yields will go up.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=
aqnC4ssoiBFc&refer=home
Maybe many in this buisness should spend some time in community service working in those shelters over the next few years to give back from the evil they have done.
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I think this is a great idea. Why let them sit in jail, taking up space and using up taxpayer money? Put them to work in community service and force them to work jobs in addition to their sentences in order to support themselves!
This article says China is planning to diversify its reserves of which 70% is held in U.S. Treasuries.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/07448d3e-a985
-11db-9185-0000779e2340.html
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