HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - Open thread to talk about the epic housing ponzi scheme

January 12, 2007

BUBBLETALK - Open thread to talk about the epic housing ponzi scheme

Post good articles, pontificate away, have a good chat, keep it clean, do not feed the trolls

283 comments:

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Anonymous said...: pardon, your chance to be the bag holder and take it up the butt, sir!; January 09, 2007 7:10 AM
Anonymous said...: Okay, I'll bite.

As everyone knows, prices on luxury goods have soared in New York in the past 12 months as bankers (part. at Goldman-Sachs) have made obscene profits. Salaries and bonuses at the banks and investment houses would make many CEO's blush. This is the stock market bubble (and bond market bubble), and it too will fall ... with banks, even good banks, ruptured in its wake.

Be afraid ... your mutual investments are NOT safe. Root around for some info on "naked shorts" or FTD's (Failure To Deliver). Wall Street is fucked.

But today, they party.

-----------------------
HPers begin the spin.......NOW!!

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The decline in the Manhattan apartment market seems to have been over in a New York minute in contrast to the sluggish U.S. housing market, according to an influential property report released on Wednesday.

---------------------; January 09, 2007 1:33 PM
Anonymous said...: phoenix:

01/01: 48,213
01/03: 48,621
01/05: 49,348
01/06: 49,614
01/09: 49,954; January 10, 2007 2:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Almost 60% of all new home purchases in the past decade were made using more than 80% financing and at least 40% of the ten trillion in outstanding mortgage debt involved stated income-stated asset loans or 100% financing using option ARM loans – loans that don’t amortize but carry negative amortization clauses in the note.

Default rates doubled in 2005 from 2004 and again in 2006 from 2005. This trend will continue well into 2008 as foreclosures double and triple during the same period. A foreclosure in any neighborhood hurts the entire neighborhood and further depresses prices.

During the run up to the real estate bubble pop in 2006 there were very few foreclosures for two reasons: borrowers could lie on their loan applications and pull equity out before they ran into serious trouble, many who lost jobs and still had homes would borrow hundreds of thousands, get any old tax accountant to sign off on their self employed status, and refinance two or three times all while really not producing any valuable product that contributed to real gross domestic product growth.

Second, anyone who still had property equity during the run up, no matter how poor their credit, could either refinance or sell and still pull money off the closing table.

So why are we having a real estate depression in 2007?

1. Money that was being invested in mortgage backed securities is drying up

2. Securities that are backed by mortgages are suffering from fraudulent loan packages within their portfolios and it will take another two years to sort out the good from the bad and ugly.

3. Private equity funds which now manage over a trillion dollars in liquid investable cash are staying away from riskier investments in the mortgage industry and focusing on buy outs of publicly traded companies.

4. The largest Hedge Funds are avoiding investments in residential real estate related mortgages and their industry related stocks but are shorting them where timing is good, and putting more money into prospective merger special situations where the returns on average are greater than longer term investing strategies

5. Global Central Bankers and multi-national corporate financial controllers are investing more money into the bonds of the 27 member European Union and buying Euros while selling or shorting the US dollar.

6. Congress is less than a year away from forcing up the national debt ceiling, adding further inflation concerns to the Feds policy making open market committee, which will add more pressure to raise rates to prevent inflation from getting out of hand.

www.americanchronicle.com/
articles/viewArticle.asp?
articleID=18806; January 10, 2007 2:45 AM
Anonymous said...: US building permits in November fell to a nine-year low, while the number of homes completed and waiting to be sold rose to a record.

www.theaustralian.news.com.
au/story/0,20867,21036308-
643,00.html; January 10, 2007 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: SACRAMENTO -- As the new year begins thousands of local homeowners will find it difficult to shape up their finances because they will see their adjustable rate mortgage payments increase dramatically. “Imagine what people living paycheck-to-paycheck or on a fixed income are going to do when their mortgage payments jump by hundreds of dollars,” said Patrick McGilvray, J.D., President of www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, Sacramento's #1 Home Buyer. “We are a network of local real estate investors and short sale experts who help people who need to sell their homes faster than the traditional way of using a real estate agent. We help them avoid the risk of letting of their houses sit on the market for months.”

www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com predicts that thousands of Sacramento homeowners will be facing foreclosure in 2007 because of higher mortgage payments, declining home sale prices and longer times on the market due to a large inventory of homes for sale. This combination can make it difficult for sellers to sell their house if they are behind on their payments.

The forecast of declining home values is supported by many national and local experts such as Sacramento broker Mike Lyon, of Lyon Real Estate, who, in response to a question about area home values, said recently, “We still think there’s so many homes that prices are going to decline in most areas by 10%.”

sacramento.dbusinessnews.
com/shownews.php?type
_news=latest&newsid=102438; January 10, 2007 3:02 AM
Anonymous said...: The American people appear to be oblivious to the economic hurricane that is expected to touchdown in late 2007. That’s when $1 trillion in ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) will “reset” triggering a massive increase in foreclosures and plunging the country into a deep recession. If energy costs continue to rise at the same time or if the dollar loses more ground, we may be rooting around in the backyard garden plot looking for passed-over spuds and radishes.

The crisis is entirely the work of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, whose “cheap money” policy caused a speculative frenzy in the real estate market that sent home prices through the stratosphere.

www.dissidentvoice.org/
Jan07/Whitney09.htm; January 10, 2007 3:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Did 4th Qtr 2006 California foreclosure rate just beat 1st Qtr 1996?

4th Qtr 2006 91,292

Wow, Anon @3:37:57 AM

I think you are onto something. Is that some kind of record?; January 10, 2007 6:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Business week reporting that San Francisco and New York apartment rental rates climbed 10.5% and 8.6%, respectively last year. Doesn't that mean that the fundementals for underlying valuations of housing have IMPROVED dramatically in those "bubble cities"?

Hmmm..... these cities are expensive but clearly their foundations/valuations are improving even if prices don't drop. Funny thing is that many of the non bubble cities are not looking any better on this metric!

Maybe there is no bubble in NYC or SF after all. Maybe there is real underlying demand for living there over St Louis. that can't be....why would anyone pay so much more to live in Manhattan vs. oklahoma city? Isn't city living all the same?? What does New York have that Detroit doesn't?

I guess i'm more focused on this bubble thing than living life. maybe i should just buy and live where i want to? ....nah, i'm born to panic about bubbles with my friends on this site.

The good news is that when I'm old and grey I will be able to say that I never lived and paid crazy real estate prices in NYC, SF, LA, Paris, London etc. What a legacy I'll have!! thank you all; January 10, 2007 9:46 AM
Anonymous said...: OFFICIAL: "HOUSING BUBBLE HAS BURST"

Sez who ? Jim Cramer, our national stock booster, that's who. He said it on the "Steven Colbert Show" last night.

He was quite self-effacing in other ways too - "doesn't think his fame will last - its because the market has been kind recently".

-K; January 10, 2007 12:30 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Shocker.

Youtube video of how different Jewish Sects really feel about each other. Is there a secret rift between the Jews just as big as the split in the rest of the Middle East? Looks that way.

A real shocker, to me anyway. Who knew.

Just posting an interisting view, no opinion of it myself.; January 10, 2007 2:31 PM
Anonymous said...: You guys is allz worried about nuthin. I voted for the Democratz. They are gonna raize taxes on all the rych peeple and give me more money. So I'm gunna bee rich and afford a McMansion while still collecting welfare.

Thank you American voter!! And see you soon Mr and Mrs home owner, I'm moving in next door.; January 10, 2007 4:09 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Biney Breezes Florida. Developers just bought an ocean front trailer park from the trailer home owners. Each trailer sold for approx $800,000.00, depending on the location in the mobil home park.; January 10, 2007 5:10 PM
Anonymous said...: $800K for trailer homes....and HPers still think the housing market is going to crash 50%. At what point do you throw in the towel and say you were wrong?; January 10, 2007 6:47 PM
Anonymous said...: $800K for trailer homes....and HPers still think the housing market is going to crash 50%. At what point do you throw in the towel and say you were wrong?
+++++
It's strange you should make this comment. That trailer homes are selling at $800K just proves Keith's point. The housing market has become so unaffordable for the average person that a correction (as in a "crash") is inevitable....; January 10, 2007 7:22 PM
Anonymous said...: So Apple will sell a $600 phone that plays iTunes. A $600 phone, just what the world needed.

They will sell tens of million though and the never-ending story of people buying too overpriced crap they don't need on too easy credit continues.

How much will that phone really cost once the 19.99% APR of the credit card purchase is taken into effect? 800? $1200, $1500? Will it ever be paid off?

I shake my head in disbelief yet again.; January 10, 2007 8:33 PM
Anonymous said...: It's strange you should make this comment. That trailer homes are selling at $800K just proves Keith's point. The housing market has become so unaffordable for the average person that a correction (as in a "crash") is inevitable....

I thought the crash was well underway already. Make up your mind are we in a bubble or a crash.; January 10, 2007 9:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Hi all,

Keith now censors dissneting views,

I mentioned the latest mortgage purchase application numbers being (surprisingly ) up over 16% this morning (higher then a year ago)

and it was censored..

KEITH are you going to censor this too???

THen dont call this a discussion, but a diatribe without any alternate views, so anyone who doesnt agree the market is crashing going forward nationally will know not to bother posting, what a joke, ive lost respect for this blog..

thanks; January 10, 2007 10:08 PM
Anonymous said...: censorship, really sad Keith when you decide to censor a polite yet alternate opinion to your own

you need to be honest and let the board know you are doing this

I thought youd just censor profanity or racial slurs or whaterver, not dissent

come on dont you believe in free speech on an issue, or is this like the old KGB or something?????; January 10, 2007 10:11 PM
blogger said...: koo koo

koo koo

last anon - try hitting the "login and publish" button next time

koo koo

koo koo; January 10, 2007 10:28 PM
Anonymous said...: This is Keith's blog. He can censor anything we wants.; January 10, 2007 10:51 PM
Anonymous said...: anon 2:43am: what are those phoenix numbers?; January 10, 2007 10:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Trade gap narrows again in November
U.S. deficit of $58.2 billion is lowest since July 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's trade deficit narrowed again in November, adding support to the argument of some economists that the massive imbalance has finally peaked.

The trade gap narrowed by 1.0% to $58.2 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. November thus marked the third straight month with a lower deficit, bringing the U.S. trade gap to its lowest level since July 2005. Read full report.
In November, exports rose to a new record level while imports into the U.S. increased at a smaller pace.

The narrowing surprised Wall Street economists, who had expected the November trade deficit to widen to about $59.8 billion, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Meanwhile, the government slightly revised the October deficit, to $58.8 billion from $58.9 billion.
The improvement in the deficit will boost fourth-quarter gross domestic product, economists agree. The only debate is over the size of the impact on GDP.; January 10, 2007 11:33 PM
Anonymous said...: An interesting take on McMansions and I agree with. In order to get your kid into a good school, you need to live in an expensive area. Expensive areas by definition don't have cheap homes. So you stretch like a pretzel to afford the McMansion.

Sure you could rent in the ghetto for 1/4 the cost and then your kid could hang with Tyrone and Jose

I have no kids yet and I live in a so-so area. Not unsafe but judging from the parents I see the schools can't be all that good. Were I the parent of a 6 year old today I'd move to McMansion Estates in a heartbeat so my kid could go to school with Brie and Chad even if financially it might not be the best idea out there.; January 11, 2007 12:07 AM
Anonymous said...: keith ,

thanks for posting my comment

but no need fro name calling, thanks cna assure you im not koo koo, as you say...; January 11, 2007 12:09 AM
foxwoodlief said...: Nevada and Arizona and Florida and Texas, the four top states for population growth either by percentage or by actual numbers. How long to absorb that excess inventory? So their growth rates slow to more historic norms and that is a crash? Now when more people start moving out of those states than move in then maybe you will see massive price reversals, but even with a 40% correction in those states unless you bought in 2004-2006 I doubt you'll be left homeless.; January 11, 2007 1:52 AM
Anonymous said...: anon 2:43am: what are those phoenix numbers?

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/; January 11, 2007 2:33 AM
Anonymous said...: phoenix:
01/01: 48,213
01/03: 48,621
01/05: 49,348
01/06: 49,614
01/09: 49,954
01/10: 50,152; January 11, 2007 2:38 AM
Anonymous said...: This is p..ing me off! I live in North Bay Village Fl. In the building I rent there are many units for sale and few units have been sold lately. The "03"line sells depending on the floor anywhere from 375K to $350K (penthouse = 25 floor). Unit 1103 has been for sale since July of 2006 and started at 400k then dropped to $380 and than 339K in Novmeber. ONe month later on Dec 8 of 2006 the rate went up to 439K ! and 10 days later it is listed as pending sale for $439. This must be fraud, I am absolutely 100% certain and want to report it. I am sick and tired of prices of comps going up because of these criminals.
Anyone knows where I can report this?
This is for Miami. Oh and on realtor.com put in 33141 zip and the builing will show up; January 11, 2007 3:13 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: It's strange you should make this comment. That trailer homes are selling at $800K just proves Keith's point. The housing market has become so unaffordable for the average person that a correction (as in a "crash") is inevitable....
++++++++
Thank you. my point exactly.
iw; January 11, 2007 3:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Oops, meant from 275K NOT 375K to 350K with that view.
ML number is 1126745; January 11, 2007 3:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Fortune magazine's list of 10 housing markets ready for a fall:
Market

Stockton, Calif. -7.1 % 2007 -5.3 % 2008

Las Vegas -6.6 % 2007 -8.1 % 2008

Bakersfield, Calif. -5.5 % 2007 -6.6 % 2008

Santa Ana-Anaheim, Calif. -5.5 % 2007 -4.5 % 2008

Los Angeles-Long Beach -5.4 % 2007 -4.6 % 2008

Miami-Miami Beach -4.9 % 2007 -7.5 % 2008

Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. -4.8 % 2007 -0.8 % 2008

Oakland, Calif. -4.6 % 2007 -2.4 % 2008

Fresno, Calif. -4.6 % 2007 -4.3 % 2008

Fort Lauderdale, Fla. -4.3 % 2007 -4.3 % 2008

www.reviewjournal.com/
lvrj_home/2007/
Jan-10-Wed-2007/
business/11812632.html; January 11, 2007 3:49 AM
Anonymous said...: Making New Records Every Day.

10 days into the year and the National foreclosure is already at 135,384 homes.

http://www.foreclosure.com/; January 11, 2007 4:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Secured Funding Corporation

Dear Valued Customers,

Based upon market conditions and limited product availability, we are ceasing wholesale operations. We have stopped accepting new applications, and will have until the 12th of January to fund out the pipeline. We appreciate your patience as we undergo this transition.

Thank you for your support

https://
securedwholesale.com/; January 11, 2007 4:14 AM
Anonymous said...: 9 mortgage lenders down (that I know of). Mostly subprime, of course, but some are not dedicated subprime, interestingly.; January 11, 2007 4:35 AM
Anonymous said...: What does New York have that Detroit doesn't?

J-O-B-S, bro. Ask all those Ford employees........; January 11, 2007 6:17 AM
Anonymous said...: foxwoodlief said...
Nevada and Arizona and Florida and Texas, the four top states for population growth either by percentage or by actual numbers. How long to absorb that excess inventory?

Ya, just wait till all those Mexicans go back when there is no more work......; January 11, 2007 6:19 AM
Anonymous said...: Briney breezes, Fla. I think it was called? Developer offers Big bucks to trailer park residence. One double wide accepted $1.5 mil!!! Now they have two years to vamanos. Because the 'majority' accepted large offers 'All' have to leave!
300 unit Condo coplex to come, at 3mil a piece!
Nice tidy lil profit!; January 11, 2007 6:42 AM
Anonymous said...: What's this then? NYC market doing doing well.

Thursday, January 11, 2007
By ANTHONY MASSUCCI
BLOOMBERG NEWS
NEW YORK -- The regional New York housing market is faring better than other areas of the U.S., said Jason Bram, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

"The housing market, it seems to me, has held up pretty well so far" in the region, Bram told reporters at a briefing at the New York Fed on Wednesday.

The area's housing market may have outperformed by being less affected by "speculation," or buying homes for the purpose of investment rather than residence, he said, citing realtors.

Manhattan apartment prices rose 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the smallest gain in a decade, Miller Samuel Inc., the borough's largest appraiser, and Manhattan broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate, said Jan. 3. Sales of new and previously owned homes nationwide fell mid-year, while rising in November, reports showed last month.

"What has happened in the past year is Manhattan's co-op and condo market, like the nation's, has weakened a bit, but really not to the same extent as the nation's housing market," Bram said. "People want to live here and seem to be willing to pay."

The average sales price in the country's most expensive urban real estate market was $1.22 million in the three months ending Dec. 31, last week's report showed.

New York City's rental market is "quite strong," said Bram, who is responsible for the New York Fed's contribution to the beige book, a survey of business conditions in the central bank's 12 district banks that's prepared for each meeting on interest rates. The next beige book is scheduled for Jan. 17, ahead of the Jan. 30-31 policy meeting.; January 11, 2007 3:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Hmmm 7.1%, 6.6%, 5.5%, 5.4%....are these typos?

On HP I keep reading about 40-50% crashes in Nevada, Florida and California. These Fortune numbers can't possibly be right and must be a REIC conspiracy. If they are right then that means the 100% price gains made over the past 5 years will still be 75% gains at the end of 2008.

So renters, that $300K home that is now $600K will be $525K in 2 years. You coldn't afford to buy then or now and you won't be able to buy in the future. Get comfy in that apartment, you'll be there a long time.

-----------------------------------
Fortune magazine's list of 10 housing markets ready for a fall:
Market

Stockton, Calif. -7.1 % 2007 -5.3 % 2008

Las Vegas -6.6 % 2007 -8.1 % 2008

Bakersfield, Calif. -5.5 % 2007 -6.6 % 2008

Santa Ana-Anaheim, Calif. -5.5 % 2007 -4.5 % 2008

Los Angeles-Long Beach -5.4 % 2007 -4.6 % 2008

Miami-Miami Beach -4.9 % 2007 -7.5 % 2008

Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. -4.8 % 2007 -0.8 % 2008

Oakland, Calif. -4.6 % 2007 -2.4 % 2008

Fresno, Calif. -4.6 % 2007 -4.3 % 2008

Fort Lauderdale, Fla. -4.3 % 2007 -4.3 % 2008; January 11, 2007 3:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Today's evidence an economic meltdown is coming:

- NASDAQ up 2.6% YTD
- Jobless claims lowest since July
- oil at lowest price in 18 months

YESSIR the metdown is on its way; January 11, 2007 4:02 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: In my hotmail this morning from some RE Clerks that I did business with when I sold my home at peak in Oct 2005.
Reference to Downtown Orlando.
iw

Dear FMW,

Hope you had a good 2006, let's make 2007 great.

Have you heard the news that in the past 6 days the Board of Realtors reported over 300 listings that have gone pending, including 33 yesterday! It's been months since we've experienced that much activity.

If you are still interested in buying or selling real estate or know of anyone who is now is the time. Sylvia and I have changed companies. We are now with Exit Real Estate Professionals and I have also earned my Mortgage Broker license and I'm in full swing. Call me now for all of your real estate and financing needs.; January 11, 2007 4:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Guess I was wrong global warming really is happening after all.

Forecast for Las Vegas this weekend

Jan 12 Showers / Wind 43°/22°
Jan 13 Partly Cloudy 41°/19°
Jan 14 Sunny 45°/21°
Jan 15 Sunny 49°/24°

Global warming and 19 degrees in Las Vegas. Al Gore, you are one smart guy.; January 11, 2007 4:26 PM
bubblewatchuk said...: Good news for London prices.

Bank of England raised rates today.

http://thedebtisreal.blogspot.com/; January 11, 2007 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: fmw:
--------------------------
Sylvia and I ....are now with Exit Real Estate Professionals...
--------------------------
EXIT Real Estate ?

How totally apt! In the same vein, I seem to recall that EXIT was the updated name of the Voluntary Euthanasia society - and in researching this post, I see it has changed names yet again - gone from Hemlock, to VES, to EXIT to ERGO.

-K; January 11, 2007 7:13 PM
Anonymous said...: I would like to put all this knowledge wrt the housing market to good use, and I need help to distrubute the load of determining where to profit.

I've opened up an options account and plan to purchase puts on mortgage companies that are likely to get hit hard.

I'm based in California and am so far focusing on top sub-prime lenders such as Countrywide and Wells Fargo. But other companies may be better targets.

Is there anyone interested in getting together and putting some solid research together to figure out the best target? Please indicate your interest by starting your response with the word "Interested". If there is enough interest I will organize a blog or the like to share information and resources.

For example a Jan 2008 put option at $20 Countrywide is trading at $0.60. Do they have enough reserves to cover the likely loss coming?; January 11, 2007 11:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Casey's main guru Russ Whitney has some bizzare advice...; January 12, 2007 12:22 AM
Anonymous said...: I love to go through this upscale neighborhood in my black ninja costume and take sh*ts in their front yard fountains. There are places where you can't squat and not be seen so I have to dump it in private and then I just toss the steaming parcel into the fountain along with the paper wrapping.

These people are so pretentious.

They think it's dog poo until they find all the toilet paper in the water. Smells great, too. Especially after they come home from a long weekend at the vacation home.

Good thing I rent in this neighborhood.; January 12, 2007 12:57 AM
Anonymous said...: A total of 39,200 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. (November) That's down 8.3 percent from 42,750 for October and down 23.5 percent from a 51,250 for November 2005.

Last month's (November) sales made for the slowest November since 1998 when 37,928 homes were sold.

www.dqnews.com/
RRCA1206.shtm

Yet looking at the December inventory trend December is beginning to become a Seller Market because the inventory of new and resale house or condo for sale has gone down.

So one of two things has happened in December - either December total of new and resale houses and condos sold statewide in December gone up or Sellers who were testing the market took them off the market which caused the inventory to go down.

If the December sales figure for the bay area housing market is any indication of the December sales figure for the California housing market then the total sales in California should have gone down, and the inventory gone down because “Test the Market” sellers pulled out hoping for a better spring market.

“For buyers, the market looks to be tightening up. Inventory is now at its lowest level since last December. Prices took a tumble in December, but we expect them to firm up as the spring selling season begins.”

www.sanjoseproperty.com/
newsletter.html

In order words, this statement is telling the buyer that many “Test the Market” sellers took their houses off the market in December and will re-list them later. Most likely many of these “Test the Market” sellers will re-list their houses in March or April 2007. Therefore housing inventory has tightened in December.

However, if none of the fundamental that cause the housing market to slow down in 2006 have changed why should the sales figure pick up in March or April?

Many “Test the Market” sellers believe that many of the “RENTER” buyers are already priced out of the market and can not qualified for a traditional loan, so what will fundamentally change in March or April that should not be happening already in January to February?

What more likely will happen is that the “Test the Market” sellers who have pulling their house off the market will be replaced by an increasing number of foreclosure home owners who are becoming “Motivated” sellers.

These “Motivated” sellers will have to complete with the increasing inventory of new home that will hit the streets as motivated developers slowed down by winter weather will crunch construction timeline to bet the “Test the Market” sellers back to the market.

One thing is getting apparent many motivated sellers and developers beginning to realize that if the house price do not go down to tradition level then the pool of QUALIFIED BUYERS will become smaller and smaller.

“Test the Market” sellers will find more and more competition the later they place their homes back in the markets.

As sanjoseproperty said:

“For sellers, if you really want to sell your home, you need to entice offers and then negotiate them. Remember, in a market like this, your first offer is very often going to be your best offer. Work it.”; January 12, 2007 3:37 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Too funny.
iw; January 12, 2007 3:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Housing market pain not revealed by stats
Home sellers are crying but the data doesn't seem to reflect their woes.

An Indiana man writes to say he can't sell his house even asking less for it than he paid - four years ago.

A Duluth, Minnesota, reader writes, "The housing market is brutal, has been for months. Prices dropping at least $20,000, some as high as $60,000 just to get them sold. Most aren't selling even with the drop."

It's not just the Rust Belt.

A reader from northeastern Connecticut moved to Maine and can't find a buyer for his previous house even though all he's looking for is to sell for what he owes.

money.cnn.com/2007/01/11/
real_estate/
housing_pain_statistics/
index.htm?
section=money_mostpopular; January 12, 2007 5:05 AM
Anonymous said...: From:
http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com

Fitch Ratings downgrades 12 classes of MBS's: 7 of SAIL, 2 of SASCO, 2 of TERMIN and 1 of SARM.

And in all the fog (of war) of misleading, lying statistics, cherry-picked comparisons from the REIC about home sales, home prices, comes a survey from Karl Case of Case-Schiller Housing Index fame ( futures of which could be used for hedging against a real estate drop)..

He tracked 628 homes that were on the market from July to Nov in Boston suburbs. Fewer than 30% sold over that period. Even in a slow period, 70% would usually have sold over such a lengthy period.(Check www.itulip.com).

-K; January 12, 2007 5:05 AM
Anonymous said...: High-risk housing loans make investors nervous of ABX, says FT

The FT reports that the poor credit quality of 2006 vintage subprime mortgages came home to roose in the last few weeks of 2006. Delinquencies and foreclosures among high-risk borrowers increased at a dramatic rate, it says.

Traders say the problems have kept new investor money at bay, and dramatically weakened the ABX index, according to the article, which quotes Alex Pritchartt, an ABX trader at UBS saying: “Investors were really shocked in the fourth quarter at the speed of deterioration. So buyers are likely waiting to see the bottom before getting back in.”

http://www.creditflux.com/
digest/2007/01/11/
high+risk+housing+loans+
make+investors+nervous+of+
abx+says+ft.htm; January 12, 2007 5:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Banco Popular Closing Subprime Mortgage Business

Popular Inc., the parent of Banco Popular, announced yesterday that it will close down its subprime mortgage operations during the next three months. The bank will shut down wholesale, retail and call-center operations, according to papers filed with the government.

The closing will cost 627 employees their jobs and the bank about $39 million in charges. Employees will get 60 days notice and a severance package.

http://www.banknet360.com/
news/NewsAbstract.do?
na_id=6938&service_id=1&bi_
id=; January 12, 2007 5:35 AM
Anonymous said...: Popular Inc., the parent of Pleasanton-based E-Loan,

Popular, Puerto Rico's largest banking group, also said its U.S. consumer finance business will exit the wholesale non-prime mortgage business given the difficult operating environment.

phoenix.bizjournals.com/
sanfrancisco/stories/2007/
01/08/daily37.html

Popular Inc., which runs Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, plans to shut its wholesale non-prime mortgage origination business early in the current quarter along with the wholesale broker, retail and call-center units, said a federal filing today.

``Certainly, our performance has not been up to our standards,'' said Chief Executive Officer Richard Carrión in the filing, adding that the bank tried to improve results during 2006. ``Unfortunately those efforts proved to be insufficient.''

Late payments on sub-prime loans in the U.S. rose during the third quarter to 12.56 percent of the total, the most since the first quarter of 2003, the U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said. That's prompted an exodus from the business by banks including KeyCorp and National City Corp., which sold their sub- prime units. Others including Mortgage Lenders Network USA Inc., Ownit Mortgage Solutions Inc. and Sebring Capital Partners LP closed operations and cut staff as the loans soured.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601086&sid=
a7mNwCBjpvk4&refer=
latin_america

Will E-Loan be next?; January 12, 2007 5:49 AM
Anonymous said...: Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said on Thursday looser underwriting standards were partly responsible for recent rises in late mortgage payments and that lenders should tighten risk management practices.

Bies said regulators were seeing more instances of lenders combining nontraditional loans -- those that defer repayment of principal and sometimes of interest -- with "risk layering" practices, like not evaluating a borrower's ability to pay if interest rates rise.

She warned that lenders are at increasing risk of facing losses on those loans than in the past. A less buoyant housing market raises chances that marginal borrowers may get into trouble.

Bies noted that banking regulators had advised lenders last September to beware of the risks associated with nontraditional loans. She said supervisors "are concerned that current risk-management practices may not fully address the entire set of risks inherent in nontraditional mortgages -- risks that could be heightened by current market conditions."

today.reuters.com/news/
articleinvesting.aspx?
type=bondsNews&storyID=2007
-01-11T154831Z_01_
N11417091_RTRIDST_0_USA-
FED-BIES-UPDATE-2.XML; January 12, 2007 5:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Assessed value of many homes being reduced

Cycle of rapid appreciation has ended, according to new figures for Clark County

By Brian Wargo
Las Vegas Sun

Resale home price appreciation

Click here for a printable graphic.

Prompted by falling home prices, the Clark County assessor's office has reduced the assessed value of some homes by more than 10 percent.; January 12, 2007 5:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Yet looking at the December inventory trend December is beginning to become a Seller Market because the inventory of new and resale house or condo for sale has gone down.

sure thing guy; January 12, 2007 6:03 AM
stuckinthecity said...: bubblewatchuk said...
Good news for London prices.

Bank of England raised rates today.

http://thedebtisreal.blogspot.com/

Thursday, January 11, 2007 5:16:22 PM
-------------

Looking like the other way around here:

my blog; January 12, 2007 6:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Futures markets on Thursday, for the first time in months, no longer priced in a quarter-point cut in U.S. interest rates by the end of September. Futures were priced at a level reflecting an expectation the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will keep its federal funds target rate at 5.25 percent when it meets Jan. 30-31 and again in March.

"We still believe the best bet is for a steady policy stance through June at least, with better chances for a hike rather than a cut as the next move," said strategists at Action Economics.

today.reuters.com/news/
articlebusiness.aspx?
type=tnBusinessNews&storyID
=nN11460047&pageNumber=1&im
ageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=
BizArt-C1-ArticlePage1

Around November 2001 gas price drop below $1.00 per gallon in many cities. This drop in prices act as a raise in income for most low income wage earners.

When crude oil price dip in November 2001 it gave Alan Greenspan a chance to raise interest rate, Greenspan did not use that chance. Instead Greenspan continue to lower interest rate weakening USD which inflated crude oil price.

Today Crude oil price plunged below $52 a barrel. A raise in interest rate in January could strengthen the USD. This could lower crude oil price some more.; January 12, 2007 6:17 AM
Anonymous said...: What's Really Behind This Oil Price Crash?

Russian Bear Shuns OPEC, Pumps record barrels of Oil

So far, Russian kingpin Vladimir Putin hasn’t joined the OPEC cartel in cutting oil production, and instead, is pumping oil at full speed. Putin’s lack of cooperation on oil production is creating bitterness within the ranks of OPEC, and might explain why most members of the cartel are cheating on their quotas. Oil production in Russia increased 2.1% year-on-year to a near record 9.75 million BPD in December.

The last time Russia cooperated with OPEC to shore up oil prices was in December 2001, when US crude oil prices were trading at $18 per barrel. At that time, Moscow cut its output by 150,000 BPD, Mexico cut 100,000 BPD, Norway cut 200,000 BPD, and Oman cut its output by 40,000 BPD. OPEC slashed its output by a hefty 1.4 million BPD. So far, there is no such joint initiative on the table for 2007.

Ironically, the two biggest cheaters in OPEC were the two most vociferous price hawks, Iran and Venezuela. After pledging to cut its oil output by 176,000 BPD in December, Tehran left its oil output unchanged at 3.83 million BPD, while Caracas actually increased its oil output by 20,000 BPD last month, after pledging to reduce output by 138,000 BPD. Riyadh cheated by 80,000 BPD last month. It’s hard to believe OPEC will meet its pledge to cut oil output by 500,000 BPD in February, when the December agreements have not been fully kept.

energy.seekingalpha.com/
article/23936; January 12, 2007 6:24 AM
Anonymous said...: The Honorable George W. Bush
President of the United States
The White House
Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President:

The deliberate actions of Japanese officials to maintain an undervalued yen is not a new problem. In the past, Japan has utilized manipulative financial tools to intervene with currency markets. In dollar terms, the Japanese government spent more than $400 billion to keep the yen weak between 2000 and 2004. These actions resulted in a $3,000 to $7,000 per vehicle subsidy for their exports, giving them an unfair advantage against U.S. automakers. More recently, the Japanese government has instituted a more subtle approach to intervention by commenting when the yen rises to a certain level. The end result is just the same – manipulative trade practices that unfairly punish American manufacturers.

Sincerely,

U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
U.S. Senator Carl Levin (D-MI)

http://www.senate.gov/
~levin/newsroom/
release.cfm?id=257890

Japan's Finance Minister Koji Omi said the central bank should help sustain the economy's expansion even as it grapples with abnormally low interest rates.

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy should ``support economic growth,'' Omi said in an interview in London late yesterday. He added that rates ``are low if you look at them from a long-term perspective. I don't consider the present situation to be normal.''

Japanese government officials are concerned that an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan next week would stunt growth in the world's second-largest economy. Earlier yesterday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he expects the bank to make ``appropriate decisions.''

``The government probably considers that a rate increase is totally up to the Bank of Japan but that the bank should bear the entire responsibility should the economy deteriorate,'' said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management in Tokyo.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601080&sid=
aHcs9h11Co5M&refer=asia; January 12, 2007 6:41 AM
Anonymous said...: The state of Michigan is going to pay Ford Motor Company $300 million (£155m) in order to keep open six of Ford's factories in the state.

Michigan is paying Ford amounts to subsidies of ~$23,000 per worker.

This agreement could help safeguard up to 13,000 jobs in Michigan

www.digitaljournal.com/
article/88871/
Michigan_pays_Ford_not_
to_close_factories

U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow and U.S. Senator Carl Levin need to urge Congress to support a bill to sanction Japan if BOJ continue to manipulative the Yen by not raising interest rate.; January 12, 2007 7:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Layoffs in Smyth County’s home construction material manufacturing sector in November are blamed for the highest unemployment rate recorded since January 2005

http://www.smythnews.com/
servlet/Satellite?
pagename=SCN/MGArticle/SCN_
BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&ci
d=1149192610542&path=!home; January 12, 2007 7:44 AM
Anonymous said...: 84 Lumber Co., dealing with a slowdown in the overall housing market, laid off 25 to 30 people at its corporate headquarters last month.

Job cuts have been reported around the country over the past few months as those involved in new home construction have felt the combined force of higher interest rates, a slower-than-expected start in rebuilding hurricane-devastated regions and excess inventory of new homes

When the housing slowdown began last summer, the company decided not to fill positions whenever possible, said Nobers. By year-end, the supplier to the professional building market had trimmed about 100 positions from its 800-employee corporate headquarters, using a mix of attrition, personnel transfers and layoffs. The layoffs came in December.

http://www.heraldstandard.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17701193&BRD=2280&PAG=461&dept_id=468387&rfi=6; January 12, 2007 7:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Builders scale back home starts

Industry reports weakest quarter in two years

Local homebuilders have gotten the message about the housing slowdown, sharply cutting construction during the final months of 2006.

Sales of new homes in the fourth quarter also dropped about 4 percent compared with a year earlier.

"The builders have continued to back off starts," Mr. Wilson said. "Everybody is taking a good, hard look at the business.

Early spring is normally a boom time for residential builders. Don't be surprised if housing starts in the D-FW area are more restrained this year. That's because builders overdid it early in 2006. The problem is even worse on the West Coast and in Florida.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-nuhomes_12bus.ART0.State.Edition1.31054b2.html; January 12, 2007 8:02 AM
Anonymous said...: THIS SHOULD EXPLAIN SOME OF THE RECENT SELLS NUMBERS IN DECEMBER AS FORECLOSURE INCREASE SO DID THE SALES NUMBERS

You are not going to believe this! I live in Shasta County, California. The local newspaper, the Redding Record Searchlight publishes addresses and dollar amounts of sales each month. Their source is DataQuick.

On a lark, I decided to track foreclosures for their impact on sales. The Record Searchlight publishes "Notices of Trustees Sales" (potential foreclosures) in the legal section of the paper. When the lender gets the property back (foreclosure) a "Trustees Deed" is issued . I found FORECLOSURES being counted as SALES.

DataQuick does not distinguish "Deeds" (regular property transfer) from "Trustee Deeds" (foreclosure). These are counted together as sales. Yes, that is correct, FORECLOSURES, are counted as sales. For Shasta County 141 sales were reported for November, of those 12 were foreclosures [8.5%]. That means that in reality there were 129 sales.

Data Quick did not respond to my email. The Record Searchlight contacted DataQuick. Data Quick indicated their program,"Prospect Finder Farm Services", has NO function to distinguish Deeds from Trustees Deeds (foreclosures) and it would be expensive to fix this gross error.

Bottom Line: The inclusion of foreclosures means that ALL CALIFORNIA SALES ARE OVERSTATED BY DATA QUICK.

Here are a couple of foreclosure examples which you can check on zillow.com. Zillow is doing the same thing as DataQuick.

1025 Chardonnay Walk, Redding, CA 96001 shows sold $635,000 on 11/17/06. (Foreclosure currently on the market with Coldwell Banker for $520,000, listed as a lender owned property.)
6740 Southgate Drive, Redding, CA 96001 shows sold $249,474 on 11/13/06. (Foreclosure currently on the market with Bears Den Real Estate, listed as a lender owned property for $213,000).

This must also be happening in Nevada and Arizona.

http://housingdoom.com/; January 12, 2007 8:14 AM
Anonymous said...: anonymous 1-11 at 12:07 -

You wrote: "Sure you could rent in the ghetto for 1/4 the cost and then your kid could hang with Tyrone and Jose"

My kids spent the first 8-10 years of their lives around "Tyrone," including a "Tyrone" foster brother - OMG there was one in the house! - and they turned out fine. There are good people of every color even in inner city ghettoes.

You've got to supervise your children - not allow them to "hang with" people you don't approve of. Plus there's plenty of trouble in the rich neighborhoods. I wouldn't allow my kids to associate with most actors and actresses these days, or the likes of Paris Hilton. Sometimes money = trash.

Makes more sense to buy a house where you can afford to, and send them to private school, if it comes to that.; January 12, 2007 9:09 AM
Anonymous said...: DID SOMEBODY SAY RECESSION??

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A final burst of last-minute holiday gift shopping helped boost crucial December retail sales at chain stores, the government reported Thursday.

However, economists said last month's strength needs to be weighed against November's sales increases, which were revised lower in the latest report.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.9 percent last month, compared with a revised 0.6 percent increase in November. The government had originally reported a 1 percent gain in November retail sales.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com on average had forecast an increase of 0.7 percent for December.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts rose a much stronger-than-expected 1 percent last month compared with a revised 0.7 percent increase in November. Ex-auto sales in November were originally reported to have jumped 1.1 percent The forecast was for a 0.5 percent increase, according to Briefing.com.

Michael Niemira, retail economist with the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), said he had expected some revisions to November. "But taking November and December together, the two months still look strong because December's gains even out November's lowered revisions," he said.

"There was strength across the board last month. I think it shows that the consumer is still very much alive. I've maintained that income growth was the main storyline for 2006. Consumers feel they have money and they're spending it," Niemira said.; January 12, 2007 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Latest signs the economy is about to implode into a worldwide depression

- oil under $52, lowest in 2 years
- NASDAQ up 3.2% YTD
- 1% increase in December spending

YESSIR it's 1930 all over again!!!; January 12, 2007 5:07 PM
james dean said...: Housing WILL go down in price, why?

1) The affordability differential between bubble and non bubble markets is almost 100% greater than anytime in U.S. history; At the same time incomes are only 10%-15% lower in, say, North Carolina versus, say, New York City for most professional occupations.

2) Rates WILL rise and long term, rise alot to support our debt driven society; while this may adversely affect future affordablity for cash strapped borrowers, it will SURELY lower prices.

3) Higher taxes to support our debt driven society will reduce affordability ever further; the same is true of skyrocketing healthcare and education costs.

4) Affordability in bubble markets is already off the charts and built on ARMs, IO ARMs, Option ARMs; In afew years, noone will touch these creative loans.

5) Bubble sitters are leaving the bubble markets for greener pastures. See #1 above.

6) Global competition in service sectors will force payroll reductions, not good for high priced job markets. See #5.

7) Even in bubble markets, it is much cheaper to buy land at inflated prices and build the house at cost. RIGHT NOW, you can save 50% on your home in all but the most close in locations by doing this one simple thing. And get more land in the process. After 2008 (China's olympic year) the cost of raw materials will fall EVEN more.

#8) The small scale American farmer is dying off; land prices WILL be falling.

#9) Federal tax rates are lower per dollar of buying power in non-bubble markets. When people wake up to this, it will increase the speed of the middle class exodus.

#10) If something is not done about the creeping, "soon to swallow middle class" AMT (alternative minimum tax), people will be waking up FAST!

#11) Physcology is important; in our lifetime the overzealous physcology for housing will never be revisited.

#12) Quality of life matters and will matter ever more as time goes by; we have seen this generation after generation. After all, this is why some good paying trades cannot find workers anymore. People want desk jobs, people want to enjoy life. Comfort will be found in greener pastures, bluer skies, safer streets, and roads where the traffic moves at the posted speed limit. As for big city culture, that is increasing becoming digitized and location independent.; January 12, 2007 5:30 PM
stuckinthecity said...: Bies said regulators were seeing more instances of lenders combining nontraditional loans -- those that defer repayment of principal and sometimes of interest -- with "risk layering" practices, like not evaluating a borrower's ability to pay if interest rates rise.

======================
How else were the lower end of the ponzi scheme going to get in?; January 12, 2007 6:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Re 1930 all over again.....

No, It's probably like 1928-early
1929 all over again. 1930 was post
stock market crash, which hasn't
happened yet, and no one but a few
thought that would ever happen.

I like to say, how has your own
life been? Has nothing ever gone
awry, even when you were convinced
to the contrary?

My grandfather lost his farm before
1929, probably 1924 +/-, it was
foreclosed because of drought conditions. PKK; January 12, 2007 7:23 PM
Anonymous said...: DHI (DR HORTON) up 1.4% YTD

How's that oil treating you these days, down only 1.6% after today's gains.; January 12, 2007 7:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing in Chicago suburbs is getting crazy. I'd like to see a good 30% correction. Property taxes getting out of line too.

If your family gross income is 100k and your house payment + property taxes is any more than 1,500 a month, you will probably not have much left over after other bills and trying to save for kids college. If you live tight, you can have a $2,000 a month payment, but that is tight.

These houses in suburbs of Chicago are too big and too expensive for average families. These realtors have over sold how much people can truly afford.

I'd say the most the average family wants and have some sort of lifestyle is around 200-250k and that is darn near impossible to get in suburbs of Chicago with these cheap ass yet enormous houses they are building.; January 12, 2007 9:05 PM
Larry Roberts said...: I have to laugh when I read prices in other locales. $1,500 a month would not cover rent in Irvine on a 2/2 apartment. $2,000 a month will not get a 3/2 apartment. A starter home (tiny 1200SF 3/2) goes for over $600,000. If people in Chicago are having troubles, imagine how we are doing in Irvine, California.; January 12, 2007 11:39 PM
Anonymous said...: No, It's probably like 1928-early
1929 all over again.

Comparing today to the 20s is ridiculous. There was no welfare, no FDIC, no SEC, no Social Security.

If you haven't noticed we live in a socialist/quasi-communist country today. The government runs everything for the most part. A depression will not be allowed.; January 13, 2007 12:58 AM
Anonymous said...: 1500 a month for a 1 BD in Irvine? Talk about throwing $ away. You need to get off the 'I live in the OC' pretentious bandwagon, get yourself a Honda, commute 1 hour to work and get yourself a house in CHINO ..AKA CowTipping land!; January 13, 2007 1:59 AM
Anonymous said...: One out of every three home buyers in the first eight months of 2006 got some kind of pay-option mortgage -- that's up from one in five in 2005 and only eight out of a thousand in 2003.

Usually ARMs are referred to as 2/28, meaning payments are low for the first two years, and then increase by 40 or 50 per cent for the next 28 years. There is at least $1-trillion worth of option ARMs (41 per cent of the total outstanding) whose payments will increase in 2007, though I've seen estimates as high as $2-trillion.

Adding spice to the mix is that a staggering 45 per cent of these subprime loans required "low documentation," real estate parlance for don't ask, don't tell. ("You want a half-million-dollar loan to buy a house, have no down payment, and you haven't worked in five years? Okay, we didn't hear that last part. You're approved."). Fully 38 per cent of all subprime mortgages in 2006 were for 100 per cent of the price of the house.

In the third quarter of 2006, 12.5 per cent of all subprime loans were already delinquent on their payments after nine months. In the past month or so, seven subprime lenders have gone belly up. Perhaps a level of documentation greater than "low" would have been more appropriate?

Lenders don't want to keep these high-risk loans on their books, so it is not surprising that the majority of these mortgages are securitized, packaged and sold to investors. Naturally, there are all kinds of sophisticated hedges, derivatives and other methods for offloading this risk onto the credulous (see Harry's First Law of Capital Markets, "Make the Stupid Pay"), but none of them, as Don Coxe might say, have ever tried to shoot the rapids of a Triple Waterfall.

according to a recent study by the Center for Responsible Lending (a U.S. non-profit), one out of every five subprime mortgage loans made in the past two years will go into foreclosure. That would mean 1.1 million houses getting repossessed by banks, vaporizing $74.6-billion in homeowners' equity.

The banks will sell the repossessed properties as quickly as possible, driving house prices lower, triggering more foreclosures, putting more excess properties on the market, driving prices lower and, well, you get the idea -- a negative feedback loop, the mirror image of the one that built the bubble.

www.theglobeandmail.com/
servlet/story/LAC.20070112.
RKOZA12/TPStory/Business/
columnists; January 13, 2007 3:18 AM
Anonymous said...: US housing market - Subprime lending sector spiraling south !

ContiFinancial ... EquiCredit ... The Money Store ... Southern Pacific Funding. Maybe you've never heard of them, but they were the subprime mortgage lending stars of the mid-to-late 1990s.

They specialized in making loans to borrowers with bad credit, little or no down payments, and a host of other problems. Once they made loans, they'd sell them off to Wall Street firms and other investors, who would help package them together into bonds — a process known as “securitization.” The subprime lenders would use the proceeds to make additional mortgages, and the process would start all over again.

The gravy train seemed unstoppable. The subprime lenders made billions of dollars worth of loans. The Wall Street securitizers got crazy rich. Then, just like that, it all came crashing down.

The major reason: Gunslinging hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management imploded in 1998. As its market bets went south, the firm lost billions of dollars. That, in turn, brought the market for high-risk debt to a standstill.

Investors soured on risky home loans. As a result, the subprime lenders found themselves in a vicious cash crunch — unable to get the funding they needed to keep the mortgage “production lines” running.

Lenders started dropping like flies, either going bankrupt or selling themselves off to larger institutions. Thousands of employees lost their jobs in the process. Delinquencies, loan losses, and foreclosures surged.

What This Means for the Housing Market ... and You

The recent action in the subprime industry just underscores what I've been saying for a long time: The housing bust will stretch its tentacles into many related markets.

A lot of people — both homeowners and investors — are going to get hurt. And it has not yet run its course.

Indeed, the nasty fallout in the subprime lending industry could even exacerbate the housing downturn. After all, one force that prolonged the housing bubble was the rash of ridiculously easy lending. Now that subprime lenders are starting to go belly up, the ones left standing are tightening their guidelines.

That's going to make it harder for home buyers and marginal borrowers to qualify for loans. This could weigh on the real estate market as we close in on the key spring home shopping season.

You can see why I think it's too darn early to pile back into housing and lending shares. Wall Street has been talking itself hoarse that the “bottom is in” for these stocks. But if the subprime meltdown spreads, bottom fishers could get filleted.

www.marketoracle.co.uk/
Article216.html; January 13, 2007 3:39 AM
Anonymous said...: These houses in suburbs of Chicago are too big and too expensive for average families.

What a pompous ass you are to assume you know the right size for "average" families.; January 13, 2007 3:41 AM
Anonymous said...: A 280-unit Oceanside condominium complex from one of the county's most prolific condo converters has been taken over by its largest lender.

Developer Maisel-Presley agreed to hand the keys to the River Oaks project over to Bank of America last month after the bank initiated a foreclosure proceeding, according to court records. The bank lent $48 million on the project in July 2005. It is owed about $35 million.

www.signonsandiego.com/
news/business/20070111-
9999-1b11condo.html; January 13, 2007 3:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Los Angeles, CA and surrounding regions
50th Percentile (median) price and inventory data
click to see 25th 50th 75th percentile

Price: Inventory:
Last: (1/15/2007) $582,000 15,916
Prev: (1/12/2007) $583,000 15,876
Change: -1,000 (-0.2%) +40 (0.3%)
52wk Range: 580,000 - 627,000
11,689 - 20,391

1 month -7,900 (-1.3%) -1,846 (-10.4%)
3 months -17,900 (-3.0%) -4,382 (-21.6%)
6 months -37,900 (-6.1%) -2,623 (-14.1%)
12 months -17,950 (-3.0%) +4,445 (38.7%)

inventory numbers are for all properties in region.; January 16, 2007 9:13 PM