And whatever else is on your mind...
Keep it clean, post interesting links (use tinyurl.com), don't feed the trolls, have a good chat
January 01, 2007
BUBBLETALK: Open thread to talk about the housing ponzi scheme
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
308 comments:
1 – 200 of 308 Newer› Newest»It's all about the derivative bubble!!! How much longer will the market continue to go "double or nothin'" before someone demands their derivative be paid?!?!?!?
http://tinyurl.com/vls3h
10 Myths—and 10 Truths—about Atheism
By Sam Harris
December 24, 2006
The Los Angeles Times
SEVERAL POLLS indicate that the term "atheism" has acquired such an
extraordinary stigma in the United States that being an atheist is
now a perfect impediment to a career in politics (in a way that being
black, Muslim or homosexual is not). According to a recent Newsweek
poll, only 37% of Americans would vote for an otherwise qualified
atheist for president.
Atheists are often imagined to be intolerant, immoral, depressed,
blind to the beauty of nature and dogmatically closed to evidence of
the supernatural.
Even John Locke, one of the great patriarchs of the Enlightenment,
believed that atheism was "not at all to be tolerated" because, he
said, "promises, covenants and oaths, which are the bonds of human
societies, can have no hold upon an atheist."
On average how much of a discount do you get buying foreclosure. So let's say house A sold for $300K. House B next to it goes into foreclosure. How much will B go for at auction on average?
Is it $200K or is it $290K?
Katrina Fraud Likely to Balloon Past $1B
Monday December 25, 12:53 pm ET
By Hope Yen, Associated Press Writer
Tally for Hurricane Katrina Waste, Fraud Will Balloon Past $1 Billion, Federal Auditors Say
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Already at $1 billion, the tally for Hurricane Katrina waste will balloon next year as investigators shift their attention from fraudulent aid to the lucrative government contracts awarded with little competition.
Several of the contracts were hastily given to politically connected firms in the aftermath of the 2005 storm and were extended without warning months later. Critics say the arrangements promote waste and unfairly hurt small companies.
Great video about shady lending practices leading to suicide. Expect to see a lot of this in the coming year.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2076501893662501756&q=bbc+duration%3Along
thanks last anon - I watched that bbc special awhile ago and am glad to see it picked up on google - i just posted a thread of its own
The great thing about Republicans is that they have speed the destruction of the USA far beyond what a bunch of rich ragheads could even dream of.
For the past decade the USA has been lowest on the list of nations for almost all measures of standard of living (education, crime, polution, family, equality, justice, ...) except for jobs & money.
Now the US dollar about to crash and move into line with the rest of the country at the bottom of the heap.
My new years resolution is to conserve, spend less and save 10% of my income.
If all of us can stop the spending madness and start conserving we can put China back in there place, put the middle east back on camels, knock WalMart down a notch.
We are mortgaging our country to China and many other countries. This is our last chance.
The crashing of the housing market is only a symptom of a much bigger problem.
We Americans have to wake up!!!
This blog is quite a window into the xenophobia, chauvinism and outright racism that plagues it. On that basis I'd say, there is zero chance of recovery for the USofA.
Thank god for the Godfather of Soul (RIP) to continually remind me of another window into the nation's soul. Here's a sample:
------------------
....
....
Living in America - eye to eye, station to station
Living in America - hand to hand, across the nation
Living in America - got to have a celebration
Rock my soul
Smokestack, fatback, many miles of railroad track
All night radio, keep on runnin' through your rock 'n' roll soul
All night diners keep you awake, hey, on black coffee and a hard roll
You might have to walk the fine line, you might take the hard line
But everybody's working overtime
(chorus)
I live in America, help me out, but I live in America, wait a minute
You might not be looking for the promised land, but you might find it anyway
.....
--------------------------
http://www.funky-stuff.com/jamesbrown/Lyrics/LivingInAmerica.htm
-K
Really? According to whom? The United Nations? The UN that allows Lybia and Sudan on the Human Rights Commission? Sure I trust the "studies".
I do wonder though if the rest of the world is so wonderful why there are 20 million illegals in the US. I also wonder why there are 1 million legal immigrants into the USA every year as well. You'd think it would be the other way around.
"For the past decade the USA has been lowest on the list of nations for almost all measures of standard of living (education, crime, polution, family, equality, justice, ...) except for jobs & money."
You should have been saving 10% all along. Why haven't you? Is it China's fault? Since my very first full time paycheck, I have put away 10-15% of my income. Nobody on a blog had to tell me this, it is quite sad you are only discovering this now.
Put China back in there (or I think you mean their) place? Another xenophobic, protectionist moron amongst us. You probably drive an American car too which just shows your stupidity in addition to your awful grammar.
"My new years resolution is to conserve, spend less and save 10% of my income.
If all of us can stop the spending madness and start conserving we can put China back in there place, put the middle east back on camels, knock WalMart down a notch."
Equality? Riiiight no equality in the US. No affirmative action.
Justice? Riiight no justice in the USA. Everyone is sent straight to the firing squad with no trial.
Education? riiight nobody gets a free K-12 education in the US. Not even the children on illegal immigrants.
Crime? Yup I recall in Paris reading that people don't even lock their doors anymore. The young Muslim men don't burn cars there either.
Family? I have no idea how you even measure that.
Moron.
"For the past decade the USA has been lowest on the list of nations for almost all measures of standard of living (education, crime, polution, family, equality, justice, ...) except for jobs & money."
I have a feeling on Jan 4th as soon as the Democrats take over the USA will jump to the top of this list, literally overnight.
"For the past decade the USA has been lowest on the list of nations for almost all measures of standard of living (education, crime, polution, family, equality, justice, ...) except for jobs & money."
You know, something is pretty obvious. I was wondering why with all the bubble talk, house prices aren't falling significantly anywhere.
The easy answer is "THEY CANNOT FALL". Why? Because to sell underneath the mortgage value you have to do a short sale, which is a big hassle and most banks won't approve it in most instances, and not for significant $ amounts.
So most people are NOT going to short sell. They are going to stick with it as long as they can, even if it means eventual foreclosure.
So the bubble isn't going to 'pop'. It's going to HOVER ... hover ... hover ...
There is not going to be any bubble pop.
tell that to the people in sacramento, oc, phoenix, boston, dc, orlando, miami, naples, etc where prices have already fallen
bad theory
tinyurl suck! How about
www.georgewbushisafukinevildoerworstpresidentbankrobberinhistory.com
The easy answer is "THEY CANNOT FALL". Why? Because to sell underneath the mortgage value you have to do a short sale, which is a big hassle and most banks won't approve it in most instances, and not for significant $ amounts.
Well, why is your hypothetical guy selling anyway? ARM dislocating? Got fired? Divorce? Sickness in family? Some people will have to sell, and they will do whatever they have to.
Besides, you are ignoring that some current prices are high because some greedy fvcks are trying to make their first million. There are many places in Chicago, where a flipper will buy a house for 300,000 throw some paint around and list at 450,000+. It's unrealistic and unsustainable.
most banks won't approve it in most instances
By your own bad logic, in SOME cases SOME banks will approve it, thus lowering housing prices.
The Denver area is accelerating.
http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_4890161
But when she came to the loan closing, a surprise awaited her. No one was in the room except a stranger from the title company. And after Pedrego signed a first mortgage loan, the agent produced a second mortgage. They totaled 64 percent of the single mother's take-home pay.
--------------
Hey you got to get in right? Remember: no bubble, no pop, no price drops. Nothing.
so lets see another 50 years of average appreciation in 4 years, and not callit a bubble, lets call it a dollar problem
the convience of cashless transactions? plastic!
Don't you know it is the fault of poor illegals who don't vote? It could never be the responsibility of the rich and powerful folk who run the country.
Carmen Pedrego said the builder assured her she could own a brand-new home for no more than her monthly rent.
But when she came to the loan closing, a surprise awaited her. No one was in the room except a stranger from the title company. And after Pedrego signed a first mortgage loan, the agent produced a second mortgage. They totaled 64 percent of the single mother's take-home pay.
Because she had already signed one contract, "I felt trapped, like I couldn't get out of it any more," Pedrego said. She signed the second and made two mortgage payments, she said, then filed for bankruptcy. This year, she became one of 11 homeowners in a small Greeley neighborhood who have lost new houses in foreclosure sales.
http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_4890161
Plunging prices
Foreclosure and real estate records show the prices of his Gateway Lakes houses plunged $50,000 or more after the original buyer lost them.
Pedrego's house, for one, sold for $63,000 less than the $239,000 she paid for it last year.
Strodtman said that happened because "the banks are dumping them" and some foreclosed houses "are trashed."
Zeller, the builder advertising homes in Spanish to buyers with poor credit and no Social Security numbers, said he does not speak Spanish and did not understand what the sign said.
Lenders can approve applicants without a Social Security number, but "that sign will come down," he said.
http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_4890161
You probably drive an American car too which just shows your stupidity in addition to your awful grammar
-------------
More BS from Chauncy, the neocon republican eyes wide shut speech.
You probably drive an American car too which just shows your stupidity in addition to your awful grammar
-------------
More BS from Chauncy, the neocon republican eyes wide shut speech.
Tuesday, December 26, 2006 2:09:51 PM
So how does driving an American car qualify one as being stupid? What kind of comment is that to make? Are you even an American? Part of the big problem in this country is American companies have forgotten their American idenity, for example Ford. Ford actual paid a $5/a day wage which was thought to be outrageous for the times (1920's), becuase he knew that if his workers could not buy his product he would be out of business. Now all big US compainies are in race to the bottome to outsource their workers hoping they will somehow capitalize on the 'Chinese market', like the average person in China could even afford a Chevrolet.
So how does one develop such self-hatred of America and the American auto-makers? Does driving a Honda or a Toyota make one morally superior. Are you aware of the fact than many of the Japanese automaker that you lionize committed war crimes, and were part of the Imperial Japanese war machine, or are you just another historically ignorant politically correct dolt, who hates his own country. And belives that only Ford and GM committed war crimes becuase of their overseas holdings in Europe during World War II. Speak up!
While those who bought at the top are the worst off. The overwhelming number of home owners bought their homes some time ago. While many of these people may have taken out second mortgages or refinanced their equity away to make lower monthly payments, it cannot be denied that there are a lot of home owners out there who have positive equity. When it comes time for these people to sell, they will not owe more on their house than it is worth.
I believe I am starting to see and hear more and more advertising in relation to foreclosures, and debt consolidation. From NJ/NY.
What do you call broke retirees?
(And believe me, there will be A LOT of 'em)
Ans: LOYAL DEMOCRATS.
Have a nice day!
Sovereign Society's Offshore A-Letter info@sovereignsociety.com
Sent : Tuesday, December 26, 2006 8:20 AM
World Travelers: Ye Be Warned
These days, the potential world traveler needs to be cautious.
Having to be "politically correct," often means traveling using a national passport that keeps the bearer as far away as possible from international controversy. It may be a fact of your political life that your home nation's passport may provide you little or no safety margin, but another nation's passport will.
Some countries are more popular and accepted in the world than others. Some countries are respected in some parts of the world, despised in others. Some countries are universally condemned and ostracized. Whichever categories your nation happens to fall into at the moment is likely to reflect on your fate when you present your passport bearing the official stamp of your government. Travel in many parts of the world using a U.S. passport can make you an instant target for criminal or terrorist groups. If your government is out of world favor at the moment, your passport could be confiscated, revoked or suspended at will, as happened to citizens of the Republic of South Africa during the apartheid years.
It's a fact of international political life that citizens of certain countries, the U.S. among them, at times find travel abroad more difficult. For many reasons, some countries impose strict visa requirements each time a foreign national wants to enter their country. It's their way of keeping out troublemakers and other supposed "undesirables."
Even a citizen whose passport usually allows easy international access can find a visa denied due to temporary travel restrictions during trade sanctions or political disturbances. And even if you finally do obtain a desired visa, it can take weeks of procedural delays.
Holding second citizenship and a passport issued by a small, peaceful, non-controversial country can save your life when traveling in times of political unrest, civil war, and in other delicate situations abroad. For good reasons, countless thousands of international businessmen, and others active worldwide, consider an alternative passport as their best life insurance.
In an unsettled, ever-changing world, acquiring a second citizenship can be a wise decision, an investment in your future. Your second citizenship is a choice for life, which can act as a protective shield extended to your spouse and children as well. Moreover, there is usually no need to surrender or change your present nationality while you enjoy the benefits of your second passport.
ERIKA NOLAN, Executive Director
P.S. Welcome to Sneak Peek Week! Each day this week, we're giving you a special glimpse at our favorite books and reports. The section above first appeared in Bob Bauman's The Complete Guide to Offshore Residency, Dual Citizenship and Second Passports, also known as "The Passport Book." Click here if you like to know more about this in house favorite.
Mercedes Benz built the ovens, according to a Jewish friend of mine.
So, I guess you can attach cars to wars. The US uses Hummers in Iraq. Do you own one?
I like my little toyota, but only because it is a better machine.
First off I think we should no longer hide under the Anonymous tag, my name is Greg, and I will gladly and openly express my views without hiding behind anonymity. I am glad that you like your Toyota, I would not try to deprive you of your choice of being able to have one. However, I think that your choice should not be ‘free’ and there should be cost associated with making it. Japan, has manipulated its currency and has done so for a long period of time to continue to maintain its trade advantage and to continue it’s economic growth, which is based mostly on exports. Similarly, the other East Asian countries, such as South Korea, and China have adopted this model of currency manipulation and export driven economic growth. How is it that tariff got to be such a dirty word, when for long period of time tariffs were the sole source of revenue to fund this Republic.
How much longer do you think the US will be able to sustain our massive trade deficits? On the subject of deficits it is not a coincidence that the federal deficit has spiraled as our trade debt has increased, in particular since imports do not pay a dime towards Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or any of the other major programs. Of course those very same costs are factored into the price of a Chevy or Ford, that we “Stupid People” buy and drive. But I guess what does any of that matter when you can have, “Oh what a feeling, Toyota!”. Enjoy your Toyota. I am sure that Toyota will open up enough plants here in the US to replace all of the jobs that are disappearing as the Big 3 go belly up. After all since we are in the “New Economy” and the information age why does it matter where things are made, after all we are all enjoying the fruits of NAFTA and the grand prosperity it has brought us. I seem to recall that one of the arguments for NAFTA was that it would bring greater prosperity to Mexico and consequently curb illegal immigration, I guess the Mexicans didn’t get the memo.
Massachusetts posted the worst housing numbers in fifteen years, according to a report released today.
A must see for everyone !!!
housing bubble video
Decide to buy or not to buy a house with a falling price!!!
anonymous at 6:24 -
We live in the Katrina Zone. There was an enormous amount of fraud, at all levels - overpriced contracts, layers and layers of subcontractors, people lying about what they lost so the govt would pay them, etc. It is mind-boggling and sobering.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB116709766539059338-lMyQjAxMDE2NjI3NjAyOTY3Wj.html
Regarding Katrina fraud, thats why some people stop giving. It's a slap in the face. Its hard today to think that ANY charity form is 100% legitimate. There is always some form fraud. Its probably better to simply hand your money to a homeless guy on the street knowing that they will get all of the money you give them. Without regard to what they will use the money for.
Now this is reality
http://tinyurl.com/y4vjqj
The S&P/Case-Shiller index report is just out. It doesn't look good.
Some of the worst housing numbers since 1997. I've provided stats for each of the 20 MSAs in the index.
Just in case anybody is wondering what was posted in Russian above in the post: Tuesday, December 26, 2006 2:33:58 PM, it is just spam about increasing traffic to your business’ website.
Without wanting to paint any one group of people with the same brush, I will say that having spent a significant amount of time in Russia and having known many Russians, I would not recommend doing business with any of them.
----------
And for any guys out there who are interested in meeting Russian women via the Internet, please be careful. You will need to increase the sensitivity of your BS detector. There are a LOT of scams going on right now.
If you are corresponding with one, no matter how sincere she sounds, if she ever asks you for money then run like hell in the opposite direction because you are going to be ripped off.
Another warning sign is if she is impossible to contact via telephone - everyone in Russia has access to a telephone these days. The usual pattern is that the woman comes across as though she is quickly falling in love with you, calling you dear, darling, etc. soon after you begin correspondence with one another. Then there is a sudden crisis which she begs you to bail her out of, or she says that she needs money to pay the visa fee so that she can come to the US to meet you.
Having given this warning, I will say that there are some very happy American guys who have found a kind & beautiful Russian wife (who persevered through years of immigration BS) - I know a few. BTW, not one of these women so much as asked for a dime before they came here.
Just a warning.
Now...back to housing.
-Mammoth
What 2007 will be known as: "The year of the auction."
Well that, and a whole lot of realtors returning to juco to study astrology & cosmotology...
Congratulations Partick! Saw your interview in today's WSJ. Regular reader hardly ever post; nonetheless, keep up the good work.
Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed region contracts in Dec. The entire index goes -ve to -6 from +7. All 8 of the individual indexes, like shipments, backlog and even workweek, employees and wages showed a decline in Dec. Table is is : http://tinyurl.com/sltwm
The Texas region also showed similar declines in manufacturing activity in Dec. to -5.2 from 8.6 in Nov. (http://tinyurl.com/y6eh2s)
It was bleak in EVERY measure, all 15 of them just like Richmond, including workweek, wages and employment.
With employment showing signs of rolling over, in 2 of the 12 regions at that, that's the last prop for the housing market kicked out.
Curiously, I was watching CNBC waiting for the numbers to be headlined, the usual shills rolled out to discount the numbers, the lone bear/realist to valiantly point out the seriousness, the obligatory general derision...
They just totally ignored it - both reports! I had to check the economic calendar to see if I got the schedule wrong and then go to the actual Fed websites to get the numbers. Amazing ! I truly wonder if the MSM is either some sort of mania, trance, perhaps they see this sorry state of affairs better than I do but are scared sh*tless, for their jobs and are abandoning wholesale the responsibilities of the 4th Estate.
It was the same with the credulous way CNBC reported today's hype on retail sales - to report ShopTrackers numbers(which are based on measured of mall FOOT traffic, nary a cash till in sight ) without ANY qualification - Amazing.
-K
Compared to the previous month
December November October 3-Month
Average
Manufacturing Index* -6 7 -2 0
Shipments -4 6 -7 -2
Volume of new orders -8 6 -1 -1
Backlog of orders -16 -11 -13 -14
Capacity utilization -11 1 5 -2
Vendor lead time -1 2 0 0
Number of employees -5 10 4 3
Average workweek -8 1 -1 -3
Wages 8 10 10 9
Hilarious! Just saw this Tom Brokaw show on illegal immigration. They profile Gould construction company in Colorado. Of all things, they point out the slow down as a result of tougher immigration controls in Colorado! As if these people can afford it all for pennies on the dollar. What a puff piece for the new immigration bill.
Realtwhore plan A: Talk UP the housing ponzi scheme to get as many suckers in the bubble as possible.
Now that they've run out of greater fools, have no work and lots of time...
Realtwhore plan B: gang up and troll the blogs to talk DOWN the popping bubble and keep as many suckers in the bubble as possible.
anonymous at 8:09 -
New Orleans is a hole surrounded by water into which we'll pour money. It'll never end. Although there are some funny and ironic moments in that debacle. I read a lot of conservative blogs, where people frequently bash the poor. Yet they think we need to aid the rich down there - people who could have purchased enough insurance but chose not to. I'm getting to the point where I think we should let the market solve it all, no aid for anybody. Not quite there yet.
People who would never consider burglarizing somebody's house think nothing of inflating government contracts or lying to the govt to get money. It's "okay" to rip off the government, as though it's a bottomless well of money. There was enough Katrina crookedness to keep the Dept of Justice/FBI busy for years. The present agents' kids will still be working on Katrina fraud.
Regarding the housing ponzi scheme, my dad, who isn't an economist btw, thinks what we're going to see is frozen wages and inflation of the price of everything but housing. It's gonna be real bad news. People need to live well below their means. Maybe we're both alarmists, but better safe than sorry.
The Dark Side of the Housing Market that real estate professionals rather you do not see or hear about.
A crew of nine movers swarms over a Lakewood townhome, quickly clearing out three floors and piling the contents in the alley.
Luke Beuthel, a field inspector with a property management company called Mercury Alliance, opens drawers in the kitchen one by one, snapping digital photos to show they are empty.
Nearby, locksmith Bill Grasmick hurries to replace a deadbolt on the front door.
In under an hour, the house is emptied and physical control gained by Wells Fargo, holder of the delinquent mortgage.
"There is no packing involved," says mover Art Fields, owner of Pueblo-based Creative Homes LLC. "This is one-way: easy and quick."
Meanwhile, the couple who had been living in the house glumly load their 3-year-old son and some belongings into a blue hatchback. They say they'll spend the night in a hotel, then regroup and plan their next move
http://www.denverpost.com/
business/ci_4900525
I Love Broadband over PowerLine said...
A must see for everyone !!!
housing bubble video
Decide to buy or not to buy a house with a falling price!!!
Tuesday, December 26, 2006 5:29:06 PM
-----------------------
Everything is for sale!
kill saddam, in the name of law and order and justice, for his killings in the name of law and order and justice?
Renters gloat over housing slump
For Patrick Killelea, however, this year has been one long victory lap. Killelea, a 41-year-old software engineer, has long preached that it makes more economic sense to rent than buy homes. He recalls shouting "Wow!" when he heard about September's 9.7 percent drop in prices of new homes.
"I didn't want to gloat," he says. "But then again, maybe I did."
http://www.azcentral.com/
business/articles/
1226wsj-renters26-ON.html
The slump in the housing market across Massachusetts has dragged into December.
A report by a Boston firm that tracks real estate data shows a 13.5 percent drop in single-family homes sales in November, compared with the same month a year ago.
The Warren Group also says the median price of a single-family home in the Commonwealth fell 6.5 percent last month, to $315,000.
The median price has now dropped in eight of the last nine months, and is down more than 13 percent from its historic peak in June of last year.
http://cbs4boston.com/local
/local_story_360114424.html
China will take advantage of its massive foreign exchange reserves to expand its stock of strategic resources such as oil and minerals, state media reported Wednesday, citing a top economic official.
Vice Prime Minister Zeng Peiyan told leaders of the national legislature that the government plans to step up exploration for key resources such as oil, gas and coal. It also intends to use the opportunity afforded by the country's more than $1 trillion in foreign reserves to improve strategic resource bases, the state-run newspaper China Business News and other reports said.
http://www.businessweek.com
/ap/financialnews/
D8M8VSIG0.htm
China, the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, reduced purchases of U.S. bonds 1.7 percent in the first 10 months of the year, according to Treasury Department data. Central bankers in Venezuela, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will invest less of their reserves in dollar assets.
``This is significant as China, like a number of Asian central banks, is a big holder of U.S. Treasuries,'' said Kornelius Purps, a fixed-income strategist in Milan at Unicredit Markets & Investment Banking, a unit of Italy's biggest bank. ``This will weigh on U.S. government bonds.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?
pid=20601109&sid=aXHTEA9U8n
yE&refer=home
The Bush administration’s objectives in Turkmenistan are the exact opposite of Putin's. The Bush team wants to build a pipeline under the Caspian Sea to pump natural gas reserves to the West through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and out the Mediterranean corridor or down through Bush’s “new colony” in Afghanistan through Pakistan to the coast.
If the Bush plan goes forward it would be a major setback to Gazprom which depends on Turkmenistan’s gas to supply Ukraine and Europe.
As Stratford says, “Without those shipments, Russian state energy firm Gazprom would find it impossible to satisfy both domestic Russian natural gas demand and fulfill its export contracts to Europe and Turkey.”
The administration’s plan would also sabotage Niyazov’s prior commitments to China which has signed contracts for a pipeline to bring natural gas through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
China’s future depends heavily on Turkmenistan.
According to Alex Nicholson of the AP, “Niyazov promised to pipe 30 billion cubic meters of gas beginning January 2009. [China] also won an invitation last month to tap the giant Iolotan fields, which the late president declared, contained 7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas -- or more than even Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves.”
“Seven trillion cubic meters of natural gas”?
No wonder the Bush administration is paving the way for intervention.
http://onlinejournal.com/
artman/publish/
article_1565.shtml
It seems like every time China is threatening to diversify out of US treasury, China is upset about something.
So does anyone have any information on China April 2006 gas pipeline deal with Turkmenistan -Afghanistan-Pakistan?
Does China's proposal for an energy-pipeline grid for Central Asia and connecting it with Xinjiang means cooperation with Iran in the Caspian region and a gas deals with Uzbekistan?
Can the commissioning of an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to China happen all within a year, if so does this mean that Iran treat to sell gas or oil in Euro can be realized
"If it wasn't FHA, it would be fraud," said John Head, a Denver lawyer who represents victims of mortgage-fraud schemes.
On a house listed for $100,000, for instance, "the buyer in essence gets into a $106,000 house," said Jami McGinnis, a Pinnacle Mortgage underwriter who works on FHA loans in Colorado. "You're giving these people 100 percent financing with no recourse and a mortgage based on an inflated price."
http://www.denverpost.com/foreclosures/ci_4228048
Turner's SEC experience "is that bankers have been able to get away with murder before auditors call them on it."
These days, they get away with murder by recording as revenue vast sums that they are entitled to, but haven't yet collected. In their first months or years, option ARMs let homebuyers pick how much they want to pay on their mortgages from within a specific range. Many choose the minimum payment. Lenders, meanwhile, book the maximum payment as revenue, artificially inflating their financial positions to attract investors.
According to Business Week magazine, three of the country's big mortgage lenders - Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual and Golden West - counted nearly $1.5 billion in "net deferred interest" as revenue in fiscal 2006.
If borrowers default on those loans, the lenders will never see the money. Still, Turner said, accounting rules let companies "record as interest income that you think you probably will collect." So for the time being, executives can pocket bonuses, then bail before the crunch comes.
That, I now understand, is the guiding principle in the increasingly ugly business of mortgage lending.
I was lucky. The real trick as the housing market collapses under its own greed and suspension of disbelief is to leave someone else holding the bag.
http://www.denverpost.com/foreclosures/ci_4740861
So who's more Jerry Springer?
Jerry Springer or the U.S. dollar?!?
Just MSM lies I know. Let the HP spin begin. I'll start you off with a few
1. Well yeah but I vet all those new homes were bought with 50 year neagtive option ARMs
2. Probably skewed numbers due to Wall St. bonuses.
3. Only 1 month, means nothing.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New home sales and prices both showed surprising strength in November, according to a government report Wednesday.
New homes sold at an annual pace of 1.05 million, up from the revised annual rate of 1.01 million in October. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast that home sales would rebound to a 1.02 million pace.
The median average home price came in at $251,700 in November, up from the $248,500 level in October.
Had you bouught DHI in the summer you'd be up 35%, glad I did.
Had you bough TOL in the summer you'd be up 45%, glad I did.
How's that money market or CD you have all your money in treating you? Enjoying that 4% yield?
Oh wait you all bought gold in the summer at $650, how's that treating you these days?
Spin #4:
I guess there were no cancellations in October then.
"Did you notice Yahoo Finance touting the New home sales numbers for Nov! I’ll wait a few fays for the revisions. The REIC Vampires always count contracts as done deals, I guess they have forgotten the 40% canc rate."
- S&P500 up 14%+ YTD.
- new home sales and prices up in Nov.
- mortgage rates at 6%
- inflation under 3%
- unemployment at 4.4%
- online sales up 25% YOY
Yup 1931 all over again I tell ya.
China will take advantage of its massive foreign exchange reserves to expand its stock of strategic resources such as oil and minerals, state media reported Wednesday, citing a top economic official.
Vice Prime Minister Zeng Peiyan told leaders of the national legislature that the government plans to step up exploration for key resources such as oil, gas and coal. It also intends to use the opportunity afforded by the country's more than $1 trillion in foreign reserves to improve strategic resource bases, the state-run newspaper China Business News and other reports said.
++++++++
Wow, when I posted this from Rueters, two weeks ago, I was attacked as a Nazi raciest?
WTF
Just sayin.
Good post!
Is that $1 trillion of foreign reserves all dollars?
I know it sounds like it but could that $1 trillion be for example $500 billion dollas and $500 billion Euros (400 billion Euros) but it's all converted to dollars when discussing totals?
You are kidding right? Anyone who drives an American car is not stupid, they are utterly and completely out of their fucking minds.
Aside from taxi comanies, police departments and rental car agencies does anyone actually buy American cars anymore?
"So how does driving an American car qualify one as being stupid?"
Hi FMW,
Your post is a reminder of how China's government is looking out for China's future.
Why isn't America's government looking out for America's future?
Just wondering...
Follow the money!
War crimes? Imperial Japan? WTF are you talking about dude? You wanna start living in the 21st century or relive the 1940s?
Driving a Honda or Toyota doesn't make me superior or politically correct. I just like driving a reliable car that doesn't lose 50% of its value in a year. You are the dolt for buying a GM or Ford fully knowing you are buying a piece of garbage and still buying it because it's MADE IN THE USA.
Doofus.
"Does driving a Honda or a Toyota make one morally superior. Are you aware of the fact than many of the Japanese automaker that you lionize committed war crimes, and were part of the Imperial Japanese war machine, or are you just another historically ignorant politically correct dolt, who hates his own country. And belives that only Ford and GM committed war crimes becuase of their overseas holdings in Europe during World War II. Speak up!"
Dear Mammoth,
They are looking out for their elite personal and families future, not the American Citizens future, imo. I totally agree with you, and I think it is too late.
Hope I am wrong.
iw
Re: MONTHLY New Home Sales Report - US Commerce Dept.
http://tinyurl.com/bp7jt
Re: WEEKLY MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS Report - Mortgage Bankers Assocation - http://tinyurl.com/y6548c
People have to stop reading the news reports - I'm finding more and more that they are utter crap - its not at all difficult to get the original report nowadays, cf above. So...
Yup, the new Home Sales report which got all the attention and caused a tidy rise in the equity indexes so far shows a rise of 3.4% Nov. sales over Oct. But the margin of error is +/- 12.9%, that is within stat. precision the number is between -9.5 and +16.3%.
The census bureau themselves say that if the range contains zero - the number is statistically insignificant - meaning its uncertain. More bluntly, the number is GARBAGE.
The YOY number, -15.3 ( +/- 13.1)
is down AND is statistically significant.
Meantime, the MBA mortgage apps number which got little attention shows a WonW decline of 14.2%, with refis down 18% and the purchase apps down 10.6%. You can look up the YoY yourselves:-).
Who are you gonna believe - the original report + your lying eyes or the news organization reports. I'd love to know who writes the news copy - if its some underling, why take out the +/- ranges ? if its somebody savvy its more sinister. If its getting spoonfed, its deliriction of duty. I'd ask for my money back.. O yeah, its on the net and its free !
-K
mammoth & flyingmonkeywarrior -
Why aren't they looking out for the citizens?
Because we are all taught to believe that here in the U.S., anyone who tries can make it. Thereby we can let ourselves off the hook and ignore the poor or those who don't "make it." It's their fault, you see. Blame the victim - because we would never be so stupid as to be that victim. You see this attitude wrt crime, too.
So the name of the game is grab all you can, pay your help as little as the law requires even if it's a nonliving wage, bend the law every which way. An action may be legal, but at the same time immoral and wrong.
Humans are by nature acquisitive. IMO it's an instinct that goes back to the hunter-gatherer days; it was necessary for survival to grab, gather, collect. The downside of that is greed, against which we pass laws, like the laws against child labor, wage and hour laws, work safety, etc.
Greed has fueled the bubble. It was marginally legal, but sure as hell immoral.
We are moving toward as much self-sufficiency/off the grid as possible. We need to do that anyway due to rising costs of everything and my wages stagnating for several years, but we'll be prepared if the shit hits the fan. Small comfort :-/.
I owned a GMC Yukon. Loved to drive the truck but man talk about unreliable. At 5500 miles the A/C blower ws replaced. At 17,000 miles a new transmission was needed. The power windows stopped working at about 20,000. At 25,000 the fuel pump had to be replaced. I don't think I ever went more than 5000 miles without something having to be fixed. After 2 years I had enough and got rid of it and took a big hit on it.
On the other hand I now drive a Lexus. It has 60,000 miles and the only things that have broken were the passenger seat heater stopped working at around 35,000 and at around 50,000 the sunroof started making a really nasty noise when opening and so it had to be resealed. That's it in 4 years / 60K miles. Engine/transmission are as smooth today as the day I drove it off the lot.
I love my country as much as anyone but not enough to drive an American made vehicle.
December issue of Lowball! If you are in the NY Metro area, this is one you shouldn’t miss!
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/12/27/lowball-december-2006/
Mammoth and FMW, China is looking out for China's future because China does'nt have a blood-lusting cabal of jewish neo-cohens running their government.
I can't believe I just heard a real estate agent (didn't hear name) on KNX radio in Los Angeles just say that new home sales is nothing to get excited about. He stated that the inventory of homes for sale is way to excessive.
Are some really starting to get it???
What is this new movie coming out called "Supersize Me"? Is it about excessive credit card debt?
That should be interesting if that movie hits the media in the spring when houses are really tanking.
To the psychic DHI and TOL 'buyer' - if you had bought those stocks a year ago you'd have lost 50% or more
Like housing, timing is everything
Idiot
Keith,
You are a bafoon. Of couse timing is everything. You timed the housing market right didn't you? How is that any different than me timing it right with housing stocks?
You wanker.
What I don't understand is why anyone would buy a house with an incentive (car, trip etc) added to the sale price. Anyone doing this is including the incentive in the price of the house which increases property taxes, property insurance etc...
new movive coming out called Supersize Me? WTF? Did you just go back in time 2 years? That movie came out in 2004 and had nothing to do with housing.
You guys are really starting to lose it. Was it the new home sales report this morning?
Sorry for the confusion apparantly there is a sequel to Super Size Me called Raw For Thirty Days. To be released in the spring.
"Pair buying Laci Peterson home for $350K"
"The current owner, Gerry Roberts, bought the 1949 bungalow-style house last year for $390,000 and has been trying to sell it for five months. His lender threatened to foreclose on him earlier this month before the couple made their offer Dec. 19, Olson said."
Yahoo
Sign of the time - another mortgage company goes out of business thanks to 'market conditions.'
Well Lost Cause, you beat me to it. I was just going to post this article.
Even the notorious home of Scott and Laci sold for less than it did previously.
"Crasey Nires" lol
Re lostcause
----------------------------
Laci Peterson house bought at 390K, sold at 350K
....
....
---------------------------
This made the scrolling news on the Cramer show too..
Hey, ignoring carrying costs, buy costs, but adding the realtors 4-way total cut of 5% == 17,500 they just lost 57 grand..
Forget all the dry statistical stuff, THIS ought to get the attention of the hoi polloi and the great unwashed alike.
So long as it gets their attention.
-K
I receive new listings from my realtor and it's been slow. Today the trend reversed noticably. I didn't expect this until next month.
Coconutz!
The dollar dropped the most in more than a week against the euro after the United Arab Emirates said it's planning to diversify 8 percent of its foreign-exchange reserves to euros from dollars within 6 or 9 months or by September.
After the U.S. currency slumped this year the Gulf state is among oil producers including Iran, Venezuela and Indonesia, looking to shift their currency reserves into euros or sell their oil, which is currently priced in dollars, in the 12-nation currency.
The euro and the yen each rose 0.4% on the greenback, with the euro at $1.3152 and the dollar at 118.63 yen.
China, Russia, Italy Switzerland, Sweden, Qatar, and New Zealand are also diversifying away from the dollar.
Evidence that diversification is the recognition of the vulnerability of the dollar over the coming year.
IT'S STILL ALL ABOUT THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS!!!
WAKE UP BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!!!!
"So how does driving an American car qualify one as being stupid?"
Wednesday, December 27, 2006 4:57:55 PM
---------------
Purchasing an inferior product, when you damn well know that there is a better product on the market for same price, qualifies one as stupid.
Anonymous said...
What I don't understand is why anyone would buy a house with an incentive (car, trip etc) added to the sale price. Anyone doing this is including the incentive in the price of the house which increases property taxes, property insurance etc...
Wednesday, December 27, 2006 11:48:32 PM
--------------
Accepting incentives is a fool's idea. Why would you take an incentive whose value depreciates much more quickly than the house you just bought?
A new car? Lost 1/4 value the moment you take it off the lot. And the homedebtor probably doesn't know he has to pay the tax on it.
A vacation?? Lost 100% value the moment you get back home! Sure you'll always have the memories, but I'd rather have a lower monthly bill for the next 30 years!
Go ahead and spout off your opinion anonymous and stuckinthecity. You cannot state one solid FACT to back up your claim of the alleged superiority of Japanese cars. All that you have stated is just opinion or ancedotes, and various claims about the superiority of a product. Until you can provide test data of various performance characteristics such as braking, acceleration, handling, ergonomics/human factors, I could care less about your hyperbole.
Convenient of both of you to just ignore arguments regarding the trade deficit. Do you think it is coincidence that the federal debt has spiraled as the trade debt has grown after all no tariffs or taxes are levied on IMPORTS. A large segment of the trade deficit is related to automobiles. What ever, it is apparent to me that trying to have a discussion with either of you is just a waste of my time.
I am done with this web-site. I will be proud to be a "stupid doofus" driving my American car, which has not caused me any problems.
To everyone else, I would like to wish you a Happy New Year, and good fortune in 2007. If this housing bubble triggers a financial crisis, hopefully we as Americans can pull together, it is our greatest strength. There is much wisdom in Ben Franklin's words, "United we stand, divided we fall."
-Greg
http://tinyurl.com/yejbl2
http://tinyurl.com/yypnuk
craig, what kind of car do you drive? what year/make/model?
oops, i mean greg, what year/make/model of american car do you drive?
http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/moneymasters/vj_mm122806&partner=yahootix
http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/moneymasters/vj_mm122806&partner=yahootix
greg said;
I drive a cute pink volkwagen rabbit!
I thought this was appropriate:
As James Altucher reports on his daily blog watch on TheStreet.com, the sale of domain names remains a very big business. This year, Diamonds.com went for $7.5 million, Vodka.com for $3 million, and Cameras.com for $1.5 million. According to DNJournal’s list of the top sales in 2006, the 23rd biggest sale, going for $242,400, was Mortage.com. Not Mortgage.com, mind you, but Mortage. As Altucher notes, “people can’t spell mortgage, but they are still getting loans.” This should cheer Altucher himself; his latest website is Stockpickr.com.
Anon who loves the American Car,
Dude you are reliving the 1980s when the paranoia was about Japan taking over. Remember the days of UAW goons intimidating customers are Toyota dealers or my favorite, when the goons would set up a Toyota in front of a GM dealership and for $5 you go to take a sledgehammer to it?
Well my friend, those days are gone. Hating Japanese cars is so 25 years ago. The new paranoia is all about the evil Chinese. Get with the times huh?
Just to chime in. (:
http://tinyurl.com/y27hja
2007 Toyota Scion Xa, five star crash ratings front and side inpact, five door cargo or large passanger car.
39 mpg.
Paid for.
(:
Greggie,
Can you spot the pattern here?
From Consumer Reports:
Top 3 Reliable Small Cars:
Honda Fit
Toyota Yaris
Honda Civic Hybrid
Top 3 Reliable Family Sedans:
Honda Accord Hybrid
Toyota Prius
Honda Accord
Top 3 Reliable Large Cars:
Lexus ES350
Lincoln Zephyr
Hyundai Azera
Top Reliable Luxury Car:
2006 Lexus LS
Top 3 Reliable Sporty Cars:
Lexus SC
Toyota Camry Solara
Subaru Impreza WRX
Top 3 Reliable Wagon/Minivan:
Pontiac Vibe (Toyota Matrix with a Pontiac badge)
Scion xB
Toyota Matrix
Top 3 Reliable Small SUV:
Toyota FJ Cruiser
Honda Element
2006 Honda CR-V
Top 3 Reliable Midsized SUV:
Toyota Highlander Hybrid
Toyota 4Runner
Toyota Highlander
Top 3 reliable Large SUV:
Toyota Land Cruiser
Lexus LX
Toyota Sequoia
Top 3 Reliable Pickups:
Subaru Baja
Toyota Tundra
Toyota Tacoma
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration continues to dog Toyota over a recall involving 157,000 Tundra Access Cab pickups sold between 2003 and 2005. The vehicles in question violate a 2002 NHTSA rule that requires vehicles with air bag shut off switches to have special latches in the front seats for child safety seats, which these trucks don't. Toyota asked for an exemption from the rule and was denied, at which point it decided to issue a recall to disable the air bag shut off switches and affix a new warning label that recommended parents place child safety seats in the back seat. Toyota went this way because engineering new child safety seat latches for the front passenger seat of the Tundra would be extremely expensive and difficult.
The NHTSA decided that disabling the airbag shut off switch would confuse owners, so now Toyota is forced to start over. This time the automaker will be sending a letter to all affected Tundra owners that explains the problem and urges owners to put children in the back seat. The letter will also inform owners that if they want new child safety seat latches in the front seats, they can request them from Toyota, which will retrofit fit them as soon as it figures out how to.
FMW,
My neighbor's 17 year old daughter drives one of those.
Private Sector: Perceptions aside, GM, Ford can stand proud
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
By Roger Simmermaker
Ford and General Motors have taken turns besting the Toyota Camry in quality surveys for the past two years, but if you talk to many Americans -- especially the ones who would never consider supporting home-based auto companies -- you'd never know it.
Last year, the Chevrolet Impala beat the Camry in initial quality, according to J.D. Power & Associates. And Consumer Reports just announced that both the Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan scored higher than both the Camry and the Honda Accord this year.
After the announcement, Ford's Director of Global Quality Debbe Yeager, referring to the struggle American companies have had overcoming the perceived and seemingly untarnishable reputation of their foreign rivals, commented: "It's a perception gap."
Even as GM and Ford have accumulated award after award on vehicle quality, you'd almost never know about such quality gains made by American companies.
The re's also the mythical perception that foreign automakers produce the most fuel efficient cars and that Detroit only makes gas-guzzlers when the truth is that all automakers -- including Toyota, Honda and Hyundai-Kia alike -- have allowed fuel economy to slide in the past 20 years since they all now sell bigger trucks and more SUVs.
Perhaps the biggest perception problem is that American automobile companies GM and Ford -- Chrysler is now German-owned -- squander all their money on plants overseas and foreign automakers build their factories in the United States. Foreign car lovers will surely point to Kia's plans to build its first-ever U.S. plant in Georgia, but they probably won't mention that they received $400 million in tax giveaways to do it, which translates into $160,000 per job.
Among the many benefits for the foreign-owned company, your tax dollars are going to be used for road improvements surrounding the complex, complete with flower beds and other beautification features. Hey, as long as we're going to allow states to bid for private jobs with our public tax dollars, we might as well make it look good, right?
And the foreign car lovers will probably also not tell you (or maybe they just don't know or don't want you to know) that GM and Ford pour more money into existing American facilities than foreign automakers spend on new plants, usually with little or no tax breaks. GM has already spent more than $500 million upgrading two transmission plants this year, and has spent nearly a billion dollars over the last decade, for example, for facility upgrades in Texas.
And what do GM and Ford get for making their existing plants more efficient? It isn't tax breaks. Instead, they get accusations of not being "competitive" enough! Maybe here I should also mention that the average domestic parts content for Kia is 3 percent, while the average domestic parts content of Ford and GM is 78 percent and 74 percent, respectively. This means that buying a U.S.-assembled (or even foreign-assembled, for that matter) GM or Ford supports more American jobs than a U.S.-assembled car or truck with a foreign nameplate.
Fortunately for our benefit, the United States remains the overall global leader in research and development, and a big reason for that is that American automakers. According to the Level Field Institute, U.S. car companies invest $16 billion in research and development annually, outpacing any other industry one could name.
Admittedly, the Level Field Institute counts German-owned DaimlerChrysler as an American automaker, so Ford and GM's combined R&D contribution to America is closer to around $12 billion. But who's counting, right? Certainly not the American auto-bashing media.
Japanese companies do employ 3,600 American workers in R&D, but that still leaves the foreign competition behind in the dust staring at American rear bumpers -- 3,600 sounds like a big number until you realize that 65,000 Americans work in R&D facilities in the state of Michigan alone. In fact, two of the top four R&D spending companies in America as reported by the Wall Street Journal are -- you guessed it -- Ford and GM. The other two are also American companies: Pfizer and Microsoft.
Ford has recently made headlines as the American automaker with the most challenges to its future, but these challenges certainly are not because they "aren't making cars people want to buy." Toyota did outsell Ford in July, but since then, Ford has reclaimed the No. 2 spot.
GM has the highest market share, increasing over 2 percentage points from a year ago, so it apparently can't be accused of not making cars people want to buy either. Ford sales also are up in Europe, and Ford doubled its sales in China, where GM has the highest market share of any automaker.
GM also reported a 3.9 percent rise in August vehicle sales despite high gas prices and a supposedly slowing economy. And even though Toyota reported record sales that month, it couldn't match the non-record setting sales volume of Ford. GM's sales rose 17 percent in October from the year-ago month and Ford sales rose 8 percent the same period.
And for all the talk about the lack of fuel efficiency of American automakers, it seems three-fourths of all automakers failed to meet Europe's improved fuel-efficiency standards intended to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. Japanese and German automakers topped the list of the study's worst performers, but according to an environmental group's study, GM's Opel division and Ford both "come out well."
In closing, I'll leave some encouraging numbers for those of us who actually like to root for and support the home team. The J.D. Power 2006 Vehicle Dependability Survey reports that Mercury, Buick and Cadillac (in that order) grabbed the No. 2, 3 and 4 spots to beat Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW and everyone else (except Lexus) in having the least number of problems per 100 vehicles.
Perhaps someday the American media will give GM and Ford the credit they deserve. And once they do, perception among the majority of the American public will rightfully change. GM and Ford aren't only doing what they should to make gains in the American market to deserve American consumer loyalty; they're also doing what they should to make gains in the markets of China, Europe and across most of the rest of the globe.
Anaon,
That article is the biggest load of shit. When I traveled a lot I rented cars all the time. I can't count the number of times I'd get into brand new Impalas or Malibus with less than 1000 miles on them and the things would be making weird noises, steerling would be off, check engine lights on etc. I remember a Taurus at DFW very well. Got in, started the car, drove to the booth where you show the paperwork and it died right there on me. The attendants had to push it out of the way while I went to get a new car.
I know rental cars get abused but they don't get abused during 500 miles to the point where they're falling apart.
The cars are garbage plain and simple.
Is Toyota made in the USA?
Heard it was.
Lots of Toyotas are made in the US along with Hondas, BMWs, Mercedes, Nissans, Mitsubishis. The issue isn't where the car is built, the issue is who builds it.
All foreign plants in the US are non-union. All GM, Ford, Chrysler and union.
Ding, Ding, Ding!!! I think we've figured out the problem!! I'll buy an American made Toyota in a heartbeat. But I'd rather eat shredded glass than buy a GM/Ford/Chrysler made by UAW.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2003-09-16-cr_x.htm
More than 40% of car shoppers use Consumer Reports for information, and in some segments — minivans, for example — nearly 60% of buyers use the magazine, according CNW Marketing/Research. That makes Consumer Reports the biggest single source of information car buyers use.
Ohhhh, you can read a magazine and have someone else make a decision for you. Guess you cannot make up your own mind, maybe you do not even have one, or you are just a lemming incapable of doing your own research. Consumer reports says buy a Toyota it must be good. The idea that maybe Consumer Reports might have institutional bias against the US automakers probably never enters your feeble brain.
Also, for the idiots talking about retaining value, what kind of fool purchases an auto based on resale value? Cars are not investment vehicles, duh! I guess you must be the shills who got suckered into a Preowned Lexus...I mean USED car. But hey, at least by buying foreign they have all of the neat commericals and you had Lexus to remember holiday with a big red bow.
If you operate under the principle of buy, drive until it disintegrates at 200K miles, repeat process, you have no worries.
BTW - what kind of a profession is marketing - take someone elses idea/product then sell it. Brillant, you uncreative parasite, yet another net drain on mankind right up there with the lawyers. Of course marketers are the same ones that have people like the other moron saying, but they make Toyotas here. How quaint of an argument. How much of the part content is domestic, and what is the net benefit, to the overall US economy dollar for dollar between domestic and foreign? Is that why you are in marketing you afraid of numbers?
As for the article too bad you cannot stand some truth in your little kumbya we are the world, American companies are bad especially the auto industry and BIG OIL. After all it is BIG OIL that feeds the evil SUVs made and driven by the 'Stupid People', and it is the American automakers that make the biggest SUVs. We are morally self superior for we drive efficient products made in Japan that get better gas mileage, or have hybrid engines.
I don't know. Ask Keith. He's in Marketing, aren't you Keith?
"BTW - what kind of a profession is marketing "
Gee, the unions they are evil. Obviously just in place so lazy people can get maximum dollars for not working. How dare some blue collar type get paid $30/hr.
Of course we forget about things like forty hour work week. Having weekends off. Nice national Holidays like "Labor Day".
Nah. Who would want stupid unions when market principles should decide all... After all if the market decides all we can all work 24/7 for $0.02 an hour. Sounds good to me. After all Consumer Reports said, let the market decide so that the CONSUMER can have the maximum number of choices.
As usual a wingnut who speaks without any facts. If you must know Mr. I'm So Smart, my very first new car was a 2000 Honda Accord made in Ohio. It was 82% US/Canadian content. Yes that's right 82% you ignorant tool.
"Of course marketers are the same ones that have people like the other moron saying, but they make Toyotas here. How quaint of an argument. How much of the part content is domestic, and what is the net benefit, to the overall US economy dollar for dollar between domestic and foreign? Is that why you are in marketing you afraid of numbers?"
Unions are great.....at desroying industries. First steel. Then auto. Now airlines. The only unions with any power left are government worker and teacher unions. Unfortunately those "industry" will never be destroyed.
"After all it is BIG OIL that feeds the evil SUVs made and driven by the 'Stupid People', "
Would it make you feel better if oil companies were small? Is it the "BIG" that bothers you or the "OIL"?
Regarding US vs. Japanese cars -
We've got an '89 Ford Ranger and a '92 Toyota Previa.
The Toyota has nearly 150k miles on it and rarely breaks. When it does, the parts cost a fortune.
The Ranger also rarely breaks down. When it does the parts are about half to two-thirds the price of the Previa's.
I'm selling the Previa.
anon at 5:38 -
"After all if the market decides all we can all work 24/7 for $0.02 an hour."
LOL!
Those dang anti-greed laws (minimum wage, etc.) got in the way of the rich getting richer. So they shut down the factories and took manufacturing overseas, started foreign sweatshops since they can't abuse Americans to the extent they want. JMO.
Living the good life eh, with 14 and 18 year old vehicles. But I know, I know they're paid off.
"We've got an '89 Ford Ranger and a '92 Toyota Previa."
In case anybody wondered why the REIC WSJ would publish an article on the housing bubble, don't worry. Today on page A3, there's a big article titled "End of Housing Slump Seems to Be Drawing Near". It's got great statements like "Despite some continued uncertainty, economists view the recent data as an early indication that the worst of the housing market's downturn may be over."
(Translation- Some real estate industry supported economists believe the recent data shows that the massive hemmoraging hole in the housing bubble has lost its initial momentum and is now going to be a slow bleed-out for the next five years.)
anon 6:13 -
Everything's paid off including the house.
My former foster kid, who grew up in grinding, horrid, hungry poverty, says we're not poor, we just don't have much money ;-).
A car is a transportation machine. It doesn't have to look good, be shiny-new, or have a lot of bells and whistles. Just run reliably.
I don't buy cars to impress other people. Keeping up with the Joneses and all that is what got a lot of people into trouble lately, isn't it? Got to take out that big loan and get a McMansion, take out an equity loan and put a Hummer in the driveway, all-new furniture, blah blah blah.
"To the '89 Ranger / '92 Previa guy,
Your post is symptomatic of many posts here. You berate the "stupid American" consumer for buying too much. And you take great pride in pointing out your lack of spending and spartan living conditions - hence the 20 year old cars and apartment rentals in lieu of McMansion and BMWs in the driveway.
The running thesis throughout is that the Mcmansion/BMW is only being purchased because of a) a woman making the man buy or b)the man showing off his "wealth" or keeping up with the Joneses.
Yes you are right. Your '89 Ranger will get you from point a to point b. And your 1 bedroom apartmet will provide adequate shelter for you. But is that all there is in life, basic transportation and basic shelter?
If that is the case, do you have cable TV? Free antenna reception will do. Do you have high-speed internet? Why pay $40 a month when you can get dialup for $10 or better yet got to the library and use it for free? Do you ever go to the movies? Why pay $10 for entertainment when you can get it for free on TV? Ever go to a football game? Why when you can see the same game for free on TV?
You guys are the reverse of the people you hate but you act the same way. "Stupid American" shows off his McMansion the same way you show off your 1 bedroom. "Stupid American" brags about his BMW, you brag about your 20 year old car. You're both looking for some sense of satisfaction and acceptance from your peers.
How about living somewhere in the middle instead? I drive a nice car but nothing outrageously priced. I own a nice home but I didn't get in way over my head.
Every now and then I will buy on impulse, items that make no sense financially. 6 months ago a guy in my neighborhhod was selling his 1976 Porsche. I took it for a spin, loved it and wrote the guy a check. Financially sound? No. That money could be earning 6% a year in a CD. I also recently bought new golf clubs that cost an outrageous amount. Again I could have bought a full set from Walmart for 1/10 the price and the difference could be earning 6% too. But to mee the enjoyment of the Porsche and the clubs is worth the 6% I lose.
Great blog I wish I had come across it sooner. Now if you really want to spread the truth I suggest you do some on MSN MONEY BOARDS where a lot of folks think there is no bubble or are in denial. Then you have the idots at cnbc taking the nov. house numbers and spinning away like realestate is ok after one month.
of course, anyone who doesn't think real estate will crash 60% is an idiot....right you are sir.
According to a poll, on the list of New Year’s resolutions for 2007 are:
1. Striking a better balance between work and play
2. More exercise
3. Avoiding disastrous relationships
4. Go on a diet
5. Cut down or quit smoking
Didn’t see paying down debt or spending conservatively on there. Well, there is always the hope that consumers will add these to next year’s list for 2008...
-Mammoth
Has Housing Bottomed In the US?
Data and Fifth Grade Math Says NO
by Jas Jain
"In the meanwhile, the 3,000,000 empty housing units added since 2002 will swell to 4,000,000 by the end of 2007 due to what is in the pipeline already (this, of course, is in addition to the 9,500,000 empty units at the beginning of 2002). This will bring the Total Vacant Units, Year Round, to 13.5-14 million by the end of 2007, or beginning of 2008. God help all those who need to sell homes and those who are heavily leveraged." Click Here
"In the meanwhile"?
WTF? Who talks like this?
Anon 5:27:30 wrote:
“If you operate under the principle of buy, drive until it disintegrates at 200K miles, repeat process, you have no worries”
--------------------
I drove my 1967 Pontiac LeMans from 1978 to 1991, when it was clobbered from behind when it had ~320,000 miles on the odometer.
Since the American car manufacturers were able to build a car this sturdy in the mid-‘60’s, why wouldn’t they do this in the 1980’s and 1990’s?
The fact is since they didn’t, while Toyota and Honda did build cars this durable, the perception today is that American car manufacturers are not capable of making a long-lasting vehicle.
Perhaps they can; however, old perceptions die hard, and this is what GM and Ford are now up against.
This past week i read about an '89 Saab that had passed the 1 million mile mark.
In 1990 Saab was bought by GM.
Today Saabs are at the bottom of reliability scores.
It's too bad because I have owned Saabs and they were great. Today, I wouldn't touch one.
Same can be said about Volvo after Ford bought it.
"I drove my 1967 Pontiac LeMans from 1978 to 1991, when it was clobbered from behind when it had ~320,000 miles on the odometer. Since the American car manufacturers were able to build a car this sturdy in the mid-‘60’s, why wouldn’t they do this in the 1980’s and 1990’s?"
To anonymous at 6:52 -
I'm the Ranger & Previa guy.
I hate to see people get into trouble and suffer by confusing their needs and their wants. Your point is well made, & I don't expect anyone to live completely without some "wants" or pleasures. You won't see me screaming about people buying cookies with food stamps.
There's been a lot of rampant mindless consumerism and greed contributing to the housing bubble.
I have lots of respect for well-off people who live fiscally conservative lives. I know several such families, like the one I acquired the Ranger from, just this past spring. They bought it new and drove it until they didn't need it any more, and they're rich as Croesus. Living conservatively is one reason why, I betcha, because they weren't born rich. There is a lot to learn there IMO.
If my philosophy rubs off on anybody and helps prevent their financial catastrophe, or means they can save more money for a rainy day, that'd be great! And sure, some of that philosophy has developed because of our income [shrug]. Living well on less means that you acquire a whole set of skills - yes, they are skills.
If the sh*t hits the fan, either with the U.S. economy or your family's economy, those skills end up being quite useful.
Regarding used cars, there's something incredibly ironic about being environmentally responsible and separating trash to recycle it, yet tossing a perfectly good older car and buying new every few years. To imply there's something embarassing about driving older cars... Just makes me think you've bought into the visible-indication-of-success thang. I don't need to prove anything to anybody. If you'd snub me in my 17yo truck, well, I suspect I'm not missing out.
We don't rent, we own.
Sign 'o the times: ABN AMRO is cutting 900 jobs in North America, including its mortgage division. These are the folks behind mortgage.com.
'89 Ranger,
I'd never snub anyone for the car they drive. I think you missed my point entirely. Did you not read that I am the owner of a 30 year old car myself?
I'd also never judge someone because they own an '07 M5. You and the rest of the HP set on the other hand would complete with child like comments about his wife making him buy it or that he refied his McMansion to buy it.
If you want to drive a 20 year old truck, good for you. But don't make yourself out to be some kind of martyr or hero, you're not. You simply have a different outlook on life and different priorities. I think it's ridiculous to spend $5 on a cup of coffee at Strabucks, but I'm not going to call the millions that do stupid for indulging in a little guilty pleasure.
My point was that it's quite self-centered to assume your way of life is far and above superior to everyone else's.
And how much are you really saving vs. owning a new one? The repair bills for such an old truck must be up there I'd imagine. When I was in college my roommate had a Ranger, an '86 I think (this was mid 90s) and that thing was falling apart already.
I know the "l" word is a 4 letter word here but for $200 a month you could lease a brand new compact truck. You'd own a new truck with 2007 technology/safety features and be covered by a full warranty for about the price that you are paying in repairs.
anonymous 9:09 -
I'm not bragging. When I was a kid we didn't toss out and replace a useful item just because a newer, fancier one was available - even though we could afford to. That was a philosophy that seemed commoner then, even among the well-off. What happened to it?
The old Ranger has been reliable. I put a rebuilt starter in it a couple months ago, less than $50. That and oil changes has been it since April.
I only need liability ins., big savings. I don't need to take it to the dealer for oil changes to keep it under warranty. As far as safety goes, I'm an old biker so [shrug].
Cost of repairs? I could drop a rebuilt engine or trans into it for 1/4 or less the cost of a new small truck - and still be driving it in a few years when that new truck's warranty expired. $200 a month and full-coverage ins. would buy every other part under my hood and then some in a year's time.
No, it isn't for everyone. But if our exp. might help someone save who hasn't looked at it this way before, great. I was "converted" about 20 years ago by a friend and never looked back.
How 'bout you f@cktards shut the hell up about your goddamn cars and talk about the housing bubble. You wanna talk cars, start another blog.
oh oh, someone is cranky...must be that 3% increase in sales that is actually a dcrease in sales in HP wingnut land but even the wingnuts can't spin this one away fully
looks like another 10 years of renting the studio basement apartment boys...but that's cool you'll be in your early 50s by then, completely bald and weigh 360 lbs...I'm sure you'll attract women by the boatload
O.k., Keith, looks like it’s finally time to give us gearheads our own thread here.
Parallels between automobiles and housing:
1. Price declines & incentives in housing; price declines & incentives to get you to buy a vehicle.
2. The housing slump is affecting lumber & appliance suppliers; a similar slump in auto sales will also affect sales of their parts & components.
3. Decline in sales = increase in inventory - works for both housing & motor vehicles.
4. Figures on housing sales & prices being manipulated; gas & diesel prices are also being manipulated. (Remember how fuel prices dropped before the Nov. elections and then started increasing again right afterwards?)
Let the HP spin begin....
Oh wait 0.6% increase actually is actually a 70% decrease if you compare it to 4:33pm on October 14th, 2004
More MSM lies.
-----------------------------------
Disgorge! said...
US home resales increased 0.6 percent in November, industry data showed, suggesting the slumping property market is stabilizing.
KWEEFSTER! YOUR TINY LITTLE WORLD IS FALLING APART!
Notice also how this report came out at 10am EST and not one of these HP wingnuts mentioned it all day.
But a report comes out at 10:00 that says Casey Serin took a shit and at 10:00:30 there are already 14 posts about it here.
An appropriate song for the housing bubble bloggers....
na na na na
na na na na
hey hey hey
gooood byeeeee
na na na na
na na na na
hey hey hey
gooood byeeee
WTF Ford died? I didn't read about it on HP therefore it didn't really happen.
anonymous 11:27 -
Talking about how to save money in hard times - or in anticipation of same - is directly related to the housing bubble.
To mix my natural phenomena, lol, I'm afraid this bubble bursting is gonna snowball. If it does and we end up with another Great Depression kinda situation, oh my goodness. It'll negatively impact everybody who isn't among the wealthiest, even those who've put money aside.
I'm not looking forward to it. I fear it, and I hope I'm wrong.
Sounds like we have some folks on this board who bought a home before reading HP.
It's not to late to sell before the housing bubble pops!!!! Then you too can celebrate with us renters.
Anonymous said...
Unions are great.....at destroying industries. First steel. Then auto. Now airlines. The only unions with any power left are government worker and teacher unions. Unfortunately those "industry" will never be destroyed.
The only unions left, gov workers and teachers, are the worst unfortunately. The former produces no product, unless you count incompetence and red tape.
The latter cranks out useless garbage in the form of dumb as hell kids that have no chance to be anything in life but spoiled, selfish, brain dead sheeple.
Just like the old union dominated companies, except that this time the company (government) has unlimited funds (taxes,) no competition, and the product can't be GIVEN AWAY at any price.
I feel sorry as hell for people who overextended themselves when they bought crazily overpriced homes. Yeah, they were dumb, maybe unsophisticated, should've gotten advice before they did it. All that. But it's gonna be a real tough lesson.
0.6% increase in resales boyz
In HP LAND:
See no increase
Hear no increase
Speak no increase
http://www.breitbart.com/news/
2006/12/28/061228152253.vnuo4564.html
Lots of wasted words on the blog thus far...
Derivatives are used today to hedge risk. There is presently $370 trillion in existence and they are growing at a 25%+ rate per year. Major banks, Bank of America, Chase, Citicorp, Wachovia, etc. are all heavily into them. If a problem develops there they will look to the Feds for a bailout. What's the entire net worth of the U.S.? Can it cover a down payment on $370 trillion? How could something so serious receive so little attention???
Housing bubble? That's kids play! Derivatives bubble? Now that's what everyone should be talking about...
Covering $370+ trillion in derivatives leads to hyperinflation. Where $1 becomes $1,000 or more...
http://tinyurl.com/yn72nc
Looks like the slowing housing market is having an effect on illegal border crossings. Either that, or the Border Patrol has gotten a lot more lax. Or both.
Still not thinking about derivatives? Here's an excerpt from a recent excellent post by Michael Shedlock, quoting a message from John Succo at Minyanville to Ben Stein:
"The simplest (and best) refutation to date of the silly notion that there is some kind of "Global Savings Glut" came today from Professor John Succo on Minyanville. In Response to Ben Stein, Professor Succo had this to say.
Dear Mr. Stein,
I have been running a hedge fund for almost seven years now and prior ran derivative trading at several wall-street firms. My fund trades derivative instruments with our $1.5 billion in capital.
In addressing your first assertion, that hedge funds make their money on positive carry, I would say that you are partially right. There are most likely many hedge funds borrowing low and lending high in “safe” investments, but the key word is “safe”. There are many likely scenarios where these safe investments would turn toxic quickly. It is not only hedge funds that are speculating in this way; you can say the same thing of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
I disagree for the most part on your thoughts of where this cheap money is coming from: It is not coming from a high savings rate from Asian investors but from the creation of credit by all central banks.
The Federal Reserve creates credit through its open market operations like REPOS and coupon passes. If the Fed wants to inject liquidity (credit) into the system, they simply call up large broker dealers and buy some of their bonds with credit they create out of thin air (this expands their balance sheet). The dealer then passes this credit on to “the market” by making loans to mortgage companies or margin accounts or whatever. Because each layer of lender is only required to keep marginal capital on hand, a $1 billion REPO done by the Fed eventually creates as much as $100 billion in new credit to the consumer.
That credit creates the liquidity for additional consumption in the U.S., but these days we are buying our stuff from China (other countries too but we will just say China to make it easy). When a Chinese company receives dollars in trade, this normally would drive up U.S. interest rates: the company goes to the central bank of China to exchange Yuan for dollars; the central bank of China would normally sell those dollars into the currency market for Yuan thus driving up U.S. interest rates. But in our world of today these dollars are being sterilized: the central bank of China prints the Yuan to give to the company and takes the dollars and buys U.S. securities.
It is not the excess savings of Chinese investors that are buying U.S. securities. It is central banks creating credit themselves to buy those securities. The tick data that measure foreign inflows of money does not distinguish between private investors and central banks going through brokers to buy U.S. securities. We believe that as much as 90% of foreign money buying U.S. securities (not just Treasury bonds, but corporate bonds, mortgages, and yes, stocks) is not private investment, but central banks.
In order for other central banks like China’s to print the Yuan necessary, they too must create credit. Public debt in Asian countries is expanding as a result and creating worries: this is why Thailand came out essentially raising margin requirements to reduce speculation that is occurring as a result. Notice how they were quickly slapped down by their trading partners who do not want to rock the boat at this time.
This situation is very unstable in the long run. The Federal Reserves’ balance sheet this year alone has expanded by $30 billion in this way and created $3.5 trillion of new credit in the U.S. Public debt around the world is growing exponentially and total debt in the U.S. now stands at nearly 3.6 times GDP (1929 was 2.8 times).
My hedge fund’s position is the opposite of the carry trade you mention. There is coming (timing is unclear where it may be tomorrow or may be years away) a massive correction in debt and derivatives whose magnitude is only growing with time.
I invite you to visit and spend a few hours with me to discuss in depth hedge funds, their role and growth, and specific positioning and risk control we employ.
Best Regards,
John Succo
Key Points
There is not really a savings glut in China.
What people mistake for a savings glut is in reality a process in which the Chinese Central Bank prints Renminbi in exchange for US dollars and then has to figure out what to do with those excess dollars.
In the long run the situation is very unstable.
There is nothing "safe" about the massive carry trades in play.
Public debt around the world is growing exponentially and total debt in the U.S. now stands at nearly 3.6 times GDP (1929 was 2.8 times).
A massive correction in debt and derivatives whose magnitude keeps on growing with time is coming. Timing the event is difficult to predict.
A tip of the hat and thanks to both Professor Succo and Minyanville for exposing the myth of the global savings glut in a simple, easy to understand manner.
Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/"
MSNBC
Vote: Is worst over for housing?
Get your opinion heard !!!!!
--------------------
RE: corvinus:
illegal crossings across Rio Grande
That's a 44 percent decrease
locally.
-------------------
Excellent point. With the risk of total loss of capital, entrepreneurs in illegal activities are much more attuned to market signals about future rates of return than their fat cat, government PROTECTED NOT HARASSED oligopolist brethren.
Data about their investment decisions is a hell of a leading
economic indicator.
I monitor the price of street, A grade, heroin myself. Its about a quarter a hit wholesale, $2 a hit retail (those markups, even accounting for the supply chain losses, are damn predatory ) at the moment.. Way down..It has collapsed recently:
http://tinyurl.com/vuygm
From $10 in 1975 in real terms to a quarter a hit! I didn't believe I'd see it in my lifetime(which is substantially longer than the target consumer's active participation in the market).
DEFLATION ANYONE ?
-K
Dear I Love Broadband over PowerLine,
Good post. I voted. I was surprised at the 60 percent range number of people that think housing prices are still flat or going down. I thought we were in the minority.
You are in the minority. Most sane people think 5, 10% down. You wingnuts think 50, 60%.
"Good post. I voted. I was surprised at the 60 percent range number of people that think housing prices are still flat or going down. I thought we were in the minority."
Off a mortgage brokers website, another snowflake falling on Chicken Little's head - Any bets on this turning into a blizzard.
This is a conforming ( NOT a subprime ) product line that's at issue:
--------------------------------
Brokers Beware! MLN Cancelled Refi's Today with NO NOTICE
Just got a call from my title agent that Mortgage Lenders Network (Conforming) has cancelled ALL REFIS for today, 12/29.
This came in a few hours before our closing for today. Not to mention the fact that they told this to our TITLE AGENT and didn't bother to call our office. We've been on hold with MLN for more than 90 minutes now and no one has picked up.
I heard in NMN that their alt-a division had some buyback issues with a jumbo loan product (and a VP walked) and apparently conforming had issues with funding earlier this week. I wonder if there's an issue with their lines?
In all honesty, prior to this they've been pretty good to work with (albeit, very understaffed). I just can't believe that they ignore their brokers like this.
Anyone else have a story from them today?
by XXXXXXXXXXX ( inserted by SK) December 29, 2006
-------------------------------
Other contributors there state similar experiences with this lender.
-SK
I think it's going to be a slow bleed over the next 3 years to a 50% price loss.
People will cling to hope for the next 9 months, then when all hope for recovery is gone, they will cling to their property just to have a place to live, pissing their future down the drain as they pour their incoming into a moldy, depressing investment that keeps losing value.
Sure they know prices will eventually go up, their only hope, yet if they thought it through they'd realize if they hadn't bought, they'd have saved a hell of a lot of money in other investments or cash, and STILL have been able to buy that house when it was cheap, i.e. 50% off. In other words, for a typical L.A. house, 400,000 dollars. 400,000 dollars pissed away is astronomical for most people. Especially when both husband and wife are working their asses off for 6000 month income, all for nothing, gone, years of life wasted. All because wifey needed that house NOW.
I wonder what sort of stress will be on a person who looks across the street and sees the same house they are paying $5000/mo mortgage for, go into foreclosure and get bought for $2500/mo mortgage?
Measuring crack and heroin in dollars? Bad stats. Everyone knows you must measure those commodities in blow jobs.
Immigration to the U.S. as a measure of the standard of living?
I used to think that too, but places' reputations far outlive the facts.
Tourists still come to see Hollywood. It's been the sewer of L.A. for 30 years or more now but people still think they are going to see a movie star on the street.
God you're a moron if you can't distinguish between tourism and immigration.
--------------------------------
Immigration to the U.S. as a measure of the standard of living?
Tourists still come to see Hollywood. It's been the sewer of L.A. for 30 years or more now but people still think they are going to see a movie star on the street.
The USA has a negative net worth now. It dipped below zero a couple of weeks ago, and now is around - $771 billion USD.
Total assets of USA: $43.2 trillion USD on December 31, 2006(144,000 per capita in total assets)
Total liabilities of USA: $45 trillion USD on December 31, 2006(includes public, private, and household debts)
In a month from now, we have a net worth of around -1.5 trillion USD. Interesting, no?
Great, the U.S. has a negative net worth AND $370 trillion plus in derivatives obligations residing with U.S. firms...
The housing bubble is nothing compared to the derivative bubble!!!
we all will be mining the highway rock to build fiefdom castles for the foreign corp bigshits that will own them, if things continue, seems the national resourses pirating has become a case of turnabout is fair play, like any other banana republic, without the fruit
Turnabout is where its at alright.
I read "Origins of the Federal Reserve" by Murray Rothbard recently:
http://www.mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae2_3_1.pdf
It describes the global dollarization process and the resulting ruin we visited upon Puerto Rico, Philipines, Mexico, Panama during the first decade of the 20th century.
What goes round comes round I guess, even if it IS 100 years later.
I'd love to be able to say, hey don't blame us, go dig up that Aldrich, JP Morgan, Rockefeller and hang them from the nearest lamppost.
No such luck - sins of the forefathers do get visited upon future generations.
-K
Oil and Gas Features
Climate change and Russian gas
By Stefan Nicola Dec 23, 2006, 0:53 GMT
BERLIN, Germany (UPI) -- As much as half of Russia`s natural gas reserves are in danger because of climate change, experts say.
Russia, the world`s largest natural gas exporter with some 30 percent of proven global reserves, handles the majority of imports to Europe; in Germany, more than 30 percent of all gas used stems from fields in Siberia.
In 2006, Russia`s record as a reliable supplier was questioned after a price row with Ukraine. The row, during which Russia temporarily shut off Ukrainian supplies, has worried politicians in Western Europe about the future of Europe`s supplies.
But besides politics, a whole other problem could threaten Europe`s gas imports -- climate change. Russia`s gas fields lie below a several-hundred-feet deep layer of permanently frozen ground -- permafrost. In western Siberia, entire pipeline systems are relying on the solidity of the year-round ice.
Over the past 30 years, however, the mean temperature in western Siberia rose by 5.4 degrees, resulting in gradual melting of the ground. As that process is releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases (such as methane), the melting even speeds up climate change.
Russian and British scientists have monitored temperatures and have warned officials that already tapped-in gas field infrastructure in western Siberia and the exploitation of future fields on the Yamal peninsula and eastern Siberia are threatened. The existing pipeline infrastructure would sink in the marsh, and even worse could happen: 'The high-pressure oil and gas pipelines can explode,' Roland Goetz, energy expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told United Press International. 'Roughly half of all Russian fields are affected,'
The melting of the permafrost then would likely lead to a soaring of energy prices. All the existing infrastructure -- such as production facilities, pipelines, tanks, work housing and roads -- would have to be adapted to accommodate the softer ground, and such comprehensive construction work is very costly. In parts of Siberia, where production is planned to start in the course of the coming years, initial production costs would significantly rise. 'Building and producing on the much softer ground is more expensive,' Goetz said, costs that are naturally handed over to the consumer.
The Russian environment monitoring agency, Roshydromet, earlier this year published a report called 'Strategic prediction for the period of up to 2010-2015 of climate change expected in Russia and its impact on sectors of the Russian national economy,' in which the agency warns of the dangers of permafrost melting to the Russian energy sector, which makes up a major part of the country`s economy and in recent years has transformed the country into an energy superpower.
In Moscow, however, officials have not showed any signs of concern yet.
'While there are many reports on permafrost melting coming out of Alaska, in Russia, this still is a taboo topic,' Goetz said, referencing the policy of silence from the Kremlin when it comes to the issue.
The year 2007, when climate change will be on the agenda of the Group of Eight summit in Heiligendamm, Germany, could be a decisive year for climate protection; Russia won`t be able to reverse the trend of rising greenhouse gases alone; the country itself is expected to emit more greenhouse gases as domestic energy consumption rises.
'A worldwide effort is needed to contain global warming,' Goetz said. 'This is by far the world`s greatest problem, and, unlike energy supply problems, there comes a moment when you can`t control climate change anymore.'
For Russia, missing that moment could be costly.
(Comments to energy@upi.com)
Copyright 2006 by United Press International
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/energywatch/oilandgas/features/article_1236072.php/
Climate_change_and_Russian_gas
New Rural Sales Pitch: Work Outside D.C.'s Fallout Zone
By Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 26, 2006; Page A01
Winchester and its neighbors along Interstate 81 in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley have much to recommend themselves to potential employers, including a low cost of living, access to a major highway and views of the nearby Blue Ridge Mountains.
More recently, though, the area has been successfully trumpeting another attribute: It is just outside the "blast zone."
Development is booming along Interstate 81 near Winchester, Va., as federal agencies move to relocate offices.
Development is booming along Interstate 81 near Winchester, Va., as federal agencies move to relocate offices. (By Scott Mason For The Washington Post)
In a little-noticed migration with implications for both greater Washington and the valley, several federal agencies, including the FBI, are relocating operations to the I-81 corridor. Helping drive the shift is the government's emphasis on security in a post-Sept. 11 world, which turns Winchester's location 75 miles from Washington into a geographic ideal. It is far enough from the capital to escape the fallout of a nuclear explosion -- a distance often estimated at 50 miles -- but still close enough so that employees can get to the District relatively easily when they need to.
"There's a certain distance they need to be out from the strike zone -- and Winchester is outside of that," said Jim Deskins, economic redevelopment chief for the 26,000-person city.
The moves represent a level of dispersal even beyond other recently announced federal moves, including the military's planned relocation of 22,000 jobs from the District and inner suburbs to Fort Belvoir in southern Fairfax County and the FBI's relocation of its Northern Virginia field office from Tysons Corner to Manassas. Local officials and planners have criticized those moves, saying they will worsen sprawl and traffic congestion by moving jobs away from downtown and mass transit.
Whether the moves to the I-81 corridor raise similar concerns is a matter of debate. Federal officials argue that the valley is not only more secure, it's preferable for planning and budget reasons. The cost of land and labor are lower in the valley, and with workers moving into the fringes of Northern Virginia and even West Virginia in search of affordable homes, moving operations to a place such as Winchester could mean shorter commutes for many. That, in turn, could mean lower turnover and a more productive workforce.
Leading the shift is the FBI, which chose Winchester over other towns of similar distance from the District as the site for a big centralized archive that by 2009 will employ at least 1,200 people, many of them now working in Washington and Baltimore. Some employees already are working in a temporary facility outside Winchester, a nondescript building that used to hold a printing firm and is now studded with security cameras and bollards.
FEMA has chosen a farm just outside town for an operations center that will employ 700 people. Local officials say this would include positions moved from Mount Weather, the government's hilltop emergency center on the border of Loudoun and Clarke counties, so that that facility could be devoted to national security instead of natural disasters.
Real estate brokers working in Winchester say that FEMA is looking for additional space for its accounting department and that the Department of Homeland Security is looking for space around Harrisonburg, farther south along I-81. Activity is also picking up north along the corridor. Outside Martinsburg, W.Va., the Coast Guard is building a new National Maritime Center, a 200-person office now in Arlington. In Washington County, Md., near Hagerstown, the government is redeveloping the vacant Fort Ritchie to house unnamed intelligence agencies.
Advocates of "smart growth" say relocating the jobs to the valley may not worsen sprawl and traffic in the D.C. metro area, but they argue that it will cause sprawl within the Shenandoah Valley, particularly since the new facilities are being built outside town, on and around the apple orchards that used to surround Winchester. They warn that the growth could threaten the rolling Piedmont that acts as a buffer between development in Northern Virginia and the I-81 corridor.
Of most concern, the advocates say, is that the federal dispersal is occurring with next to no public discussion. No one has yet made a case for whether it's really necessary to send agencies that far, said Stewart Schwartz, director of the D.C.-based Coalition for Smarter Growth. If it is simply a matter of finding more affordable land, agencies could expand in Prince George's County, where there is much available room adjacent to Metro stations, he said.
full story:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/25/AR2006122500637.html?nav=most_emailed
More on this pocket Real Estate Boom
iw
This much is certain: The shift already is having a marked impact on the valley. Real estate agents and developers are buying up land along the half-dozen highways that ring Winchester in anticipation of the contractor jobs and other activity that will likely trail the federal jobs.
Development is booming along Interstate 81 near Winchester, Va., as federal agencies move to relocate offices.
Development is booming along Interstate 81 near Winchester, Va., as federal agencies move to relocate offices. (By Scott Mason For The Washington Post)
Next to the site of the FEMA operations center is a parcel on which Tysons Corner-based NV Commercial is building a large shopping center. Land prices are rising farther out, near one of three possible sites for the FBI campus, up the road from the Oak Grove Restaurant where singer Patsy Cline, a Winchester native, used to stop for lunch.
"A facility like this can be a market maker. Anyone in the development industry is going to be interested in that," said Joshua Gurland, a Bethesda-based real estate broker who has spent the past six months working deals around Winchester. "There's a buzz. If people aren't interested yet themselves, they're interested in finding out why other people are."
The price of the typical home on Martha's Vineyard fell for the first time in six years in 2006, as buyers left the market and sales figures dropped by nearly 30 per cent.
The median price for properties was down to around $690,000 in the third quarter of 2006, a fall of almost six per cent compared with a year earlier when the median price was around $732,000.
http://www.mvgazette.com/
news/2006/12/29/
real_estate.php
Home prices fall for third month in metropolitan areas
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in October for a third month, according to a private survey.
Slower gains in home values are limiting the amount that homeowners can borrow against their equity, one source of growth in consumer spending. Richard Fisher, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said last week that the "sharp correction" in housing may not be over.
ttp://www.wsjournal.com/
servlet/Satellite?
pagename=WSJ%2FMGArticle%
2FWSJ_BasicArticle&c=MGArti
cle&cid=1149192358074&path=
!business!areabusiness!
&s=1037645507705
Factoring out sales incentives offered by most home builders, new home prices would probably be down by double digits
Median prices for new homes in Las Vegas continue to rise in November, but at least one analyst believes incentives are keeping those prices high.
The median price of a new home in Las Vegas was $335,850 in November, up 11.4 percent from $301,519 in the same month a year ago, housing analyst Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research said Wednesday. He counted 2,829 new home sales, compared with 3,680 a year ago.
ww.reedconstructiondata.com
/index.asp?
layout=articleXml&xmlId=551
521718
Money and Management
A Bankruptcy Boom Cometh
Hannah Clark, 12.22.06, 10:00 AM ET
Too much capital plus too little due diligence adds up to a bankruptcy boom in the making.
And who could forget the housing market? While everyone knows the sector is softening, there’s still another shoe to drop, Sunshine says.
While developers aren’t starting a lot of new projects, they are finishing those they started in the last 12 months. New buildings take 12 to 24 months to finish, Sunshine says. Since the housing boom started weakening in the last year, builders--and their suppliers--have a few more months before contracts dry up.
"The day before a hurricane, life's great,” Sunshine says. “The weather's always wonderful. We think that sector is potentially in the path of a hurricane."
http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/21/leadership-bankruptcy-money-lead-ceo-cx_hc_
1222bankruptcy.html
At historical low interest rate why are we hearing things like seller financing?
HOME buyers in a stagnating real estate market are starting to hear a term not bandied about since the days of high interest rates: seller financing.
“carry back financing”
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/
12/31/realestate/31mort.htm
l?
ex=1325221200&en=cdf8a0b345
b05c00&ei=5088&partner=rssn
yt&emc=rss
Housing Bears May Just Have It Right for 2007
David Rosenberg, the chief economist for North America at Merrill Lynch & Co. Rosenberg's contention is that when you take a close look at homes for sale, including those being completed and those under construction, the glut in supply seems likely to get worse, not better.
According to Mauldin, even the current projection of housing sales may be overstated and thus the existing supply of homes greater than what is reported in the official data. The reason is that the Census Bureau, one of the Commerce Department's statistical agencies, fails to account for cancellations in home sales contracts. Cancellations ran as high as 40 percent for some major homebuilding firms last quarter.
ttp://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?
pid=20601039&sid=aEMGTIycjg
H4&refer=home
When will BOJ raise rate?
Housing starts in Japan rose 4.0 pct year-on-year to 115,392 in November, marking the fourth straight monthly gain, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said.
The increase was unexpected as economists in a Nihon Keizai Shimbun poll predicted an annual decline of 0.1 pct in housing starts last month following a 2.2 pct rise in October.
http://www.forextv.com/FT/
AFX/ShowStory.jsp?
seq=196612
Foreclosures nationwide were up 43% from a year ago in the third quarter of 2006. Here are the rankings for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas.
Where does your city rank?
http://realestate.msn.com/
Buying/Article2.aspx?cp-
documentid=1349839
Homeowners Cut Prices, Drawing Some Buyers Back
The sales rate for previously owned homes rose in November for the second straight month, an industry group said yesterday, as homeowners eager to unload their properties in a crowded market cut their prices.
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/
12/29/business/29econ.html
In Maine, the median price of an existing single-family home was $185,000, a 3.9 percent drop from the November 2005 price of $192,500, the Maine Realtors said.
Nationally, the median price was down 3.6 percent to $217,200.
http://www.boston.com/news/
local/maine/articles/2006/1
2/29/double_digit_drop_
recorded_in_maine_real_
estate_sales/
Sales of previously owned homes in Greater Cincinnati plunged 13.5 percent in November, the Cincinnati Area Board of Realtors said Thursday.
Realtors reported that 1,708 homes were sold for an average price of $173,593 in November, compared with 1,975 homes and an average price of $183,212 in November 2005.
Northern Kentucky reported a similar drop Wednesday. The number of used homes sold in November fell 2.6 percent to 494. Figures for Southeast Indiana were not available Thursday.
On a year-to-date basis, the sales comparisons aren't as bad: down 2.6 percent in Northern Kentucky, down 5 percent in Greater Cincinnati.
"That's not bad compared to many parts of the country, such as California and Florida, where sales are off more than twice that amount,"
ttp://news.enquirer.com/
apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20061229/BIZ01/
612290337/1076
The better-than-expected showing for both new and existing home sales could be signaling that this year's severe slide in housing is starting to bottom out, analysts said.
However, they cautioned not to expect a sharp rebound. Rather, they said they look for prices to continue falling for several more months as sellers are forced to trim their asking prices more in the face of near-record levels of unsold homes.
ttp://customwire.ap.org/
dynamic/stories/E/ECONOMY?
SITE=NDBIS&SECTION=HOME&TEM
PLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2006-
12-28-13-40-28
The biggest uncertainty facing everyone from Bernanke on down remains the U.S. consumer and his or her relationship to declining home prices
While most economists are predicting a soft landing, many also continue to wince at rising mortgage defaults.
New estimates from the Center for Responsible Lending predict that 2.2 million Americans who took out riskier subprime loans in recent years may face foreclosure.
ttp://www.investors.com/
editorial/IBDArticles.asp?
artsec=16&issue=20061229
The surge in euro zone M3 money supply growth to its fastest rate since February 1990 points to another interest rate increase early next year, economists said.
http://www.fxstreet.com/
news/forex-
news/article.aspx?
StoryId=fea71fda-93df-4b97-b150-713c527201a5
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST
The entries in the mortgage brokers blogs are detailed enough to persuade me that MORTGAGE LENDING NETWORK aka MLN has closed its doors.
Its another sub-prime lender( it did have 20% conforming loans), been around since 2002 in fact, its goal was to do $16 billion of business in 2006. It was one of the "biggies" in the biz. For example, OWNIT, that closed recently was #11 at only $2 billion.
They closed for the usual reasons. Mortgages sold onwards went delinquent so they were returned to sender,MLN in this case.
At some point a really big guy, Ameriquest is my hot guess, is going to fail and the shock of THAT will be heard round the world.
-K
all i ever wanted was to buy a house. a garage, basement, back yard. like my dad and his dad before him, nobody really gave it much thought, you just did it as a matter of course. it required financial sacrifice, not finacial suicide. i sit here today employed, debt free and with a 20% down payment and yet i dont buy.
i refuse to pay double what it cost 5 years ago. my pay has not doubled nor has my rent. i will remain with my capital and see who can hold out the longest. i know i will win.
Great post Debt!
Watch tax receipts take a dive next year... even The Laffer Curve isn't immune to pump-and-dumps.
Ameriquest Mortgage Co. and Argent Mortgage Co., could be next to go.
http://www.banknet360.com/
news/NewsAbstract.do?
na_id=6494&service_id=1&bi_
id=
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then this man standing at the door step of his foreclosure home is a reminder of what is about to come for many homeowners in 2007
Jefferson County sheriff's official Dave Swanson, left, supervises and the evicted homeowner watches as movers clear a Lakewood home's contents and pile them in the alley this month. In less than a hour, the house is emptied, the deadbolt changed and physical control gained by the mortgage holder.
Homeowners are not eating ROMEN Noodles, the resourceful who tries to cheat the government are getting caught.
Trevia L. Johnson, 25, of Crown Point; Charlotte F. Garcia, 32, of Gary; and Stephanie A. Sanchez, 24, of Hammond, each face a sentence of two to eight years if convicted of the Class C felony charges.
Johnson, of the 1400 block of West 94th Place, is accused of receiving a total of $7,526 in food stamps, Medicaid and cash between September 2005 and June 2006, based on Johnson's application that her husband was absent from the home.
Property records indicate the man purchased the home and lives there with his wife and children. Several vehicles were registered in his name, including a Chevrolet pickup and a Cadillac Escalade, and court records state he earned $68,864 in 2005.
Johnson is to be held without bond because she has a forgery case pending.
Garcia, of the 5600 block of West 24th Avenue, received $35,382 in welfare benefits, including food stamps, Medicaid and cash between February 2003 and March 2006. Part of the basis for eligibility was Garcia's claim that her husband was absent from the home and she didn't earn enough money.
An investigation by Sharon Kahoe with the Indiana Family and Social Services Administration showed Garcia owns her current home and her previous home and that her husband lived with her in both homes.
"ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST
The entries in the mortgage brokers blogs are detailed enough to persuade me that MORTGAGE LENDING NETWORK aka MLN has closed its doors.
Its another sub-prime lender( it did have 20% conforming loans), been around since 2002 in fact, its goal was to do $16 billion of business in 2006. It was one of the "biggies" in the biz. For example, OWNIT, that closed recently was #11 at only $2 billion.
They closed for the usual reasons. Mortgages sold onwards went delinquent so they were returned to sender,MLN in this case.
At some point a really big guy, Ameriquest is my hot guess, is going to fail and the shock of THAT will be heard round the world."
Who's got the story on this one? heard the rumor, but havent seen it hit the news yet.
All I know is my NEW Mortgage Company (just bought my home loan)
IS
both a Mortgage Company and a Collections Company.
Go figure.
Smart Merger/acquisition I reckon.
THE CRASH CONTINUES!!!
-------------------------------------
The median price of a new home in Las Vegas was $335,850 in November, up 11.4 percent from $301,519 in the same month a year ago, housing analyst Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research said Wednesday. He counted 2,829 new home sales, compared with 3,680 a year ago.
Time for the 200th post?
Well, it's still all about the derivatives market!!!
Fact!
Don't let all the 'Blustering' fool you.....honica jewinski is of Jewish heritage!
-------------------
re fmv:
both a Mortgage Company and a Collections Company.
-------------------
Yup. Collections companies, and collections support software companies, pawn shop companies, bail bond companies, pay-day loans, auction houses are good stocks to go long on over the next few years IMO.
I won't post the stock symbols as that looks like pump ( and dump).
-K
What I learned on HP today:
1. There is hyperfinflation everywhere you look. At the same time everyone's rent is the same it was in 2000.
2. Raw materials are increasing fast. Yet homes - which last I checked were made with raw materials - will fall in price.
3. Potential buyers aren't really buyers, just lookers. This time of the year is so boring for everyone, that they have nothing else to do with their days than go look at houses they have no intention of buying.
4. Saddam Hussein's execution should be mourned today. A great leader, a visionary was wrongly executed.
5. Phoenix is hot and therefore the housing market is bound to crash. Las Vegas being nearly as hot will also crash. 5 million people in the two cities have been living there for years thinking 115 summers were cool, yet in 2007 they will all realize HOLY SHIT IT'S HOT IN THE DESERT, I"M LEAVING!!
hussein a visionary?
Get out of the sun!
Hussein got less than he deserved!
Property owners face losing their properties through a tax sale if they don't pay their taxes. The county then collects the tax owed through the tax sale.
"We collect every penny of real estate property tax," county Treasurer Todd Hershey said.
As of June 30 - the end of fiscal year 2006 - there were 118 outstanding residential accounts that owed $121,741 in property taxes, Hershey said.
About 5,100 property owners have not paid their taxes so far this year, but there still is time to pay before final legal notices go out March 1, Hershey said.
There are about 56,500 residential accounts in the county, he said.
Washington County anticipates receiving a little more than $87 million in real estate tax revenues in fiscal year 2007, according to the budget.
http://www.herald-mail.com/
?module=displaystory
&story_id=155270&format=
html
Boulder County reports most foreclosures in nearly 20 years
County officials say there were 790 home foreclosures this year - the highest number in nearly 20 years.
The county's foreclosure record was set in 1988 with 1,080.
Most of the foreclosures stem from loans that require little or no down payment and occur in areas with soft housing markets.
Public trustees' offices in the seven-county Denver metropolitan area say there were nearly 17,800 foreclosures by the end of November - slightly higher than the record levels seen in 1988.
http://www.9news.com/
acm_news.aspx?
OSGNAME=KUSA&IKOBJECTID=d4c
924f3-0abe-421a-00ce-
ab13a8ab5ebc&TEMPLATEID=0c7
6dce6-ac1f-02d8-0047-
c589c01ca7bf
In July 2004, Hicksville Building Loan and Savings Bank lent Christopher and Kayla Rasor $700,000 to buy 23 properties, according to court documents. An agreed judgment filed in September stated the Rasors still owed $662,118 in principal on the loan; interest, late fees, taxes and rehab on the properties pushed the total amount owed to $1,003,022. The default judgment against the Rasors also calls for them to pay $26,824 for the bank’s attorney fees.
On Jan. 23, the properties will be sold at a sheriff’s sale in an attempt to fulfill the judgment. The sale is scheduled for 2 p.m. at the Allen County sheriff’s office.
According to court documents, the Rasors declared bankruptcy in October 2005, but the federal court exempted the properties from the bankruptcy estate.
This foreclosure is the latest in a series of court cases involving Hicksville Bank and large numbers of foreclosures. Earlier this year, the bank filed suit against several local appraisers, alleging they inflated property values and hurt the bank financially when those loans defaulted.
http://www.fortwayne.com/
mld/fortwayne/news/local/
16349464.htm
Oh he was a bad guy? But Keith says he shouldn't have been executed. Me so confuse!!
--------------------
hussein a visionary?
Get out of the sun!
As usual the numbers by themselves mean nothing. I wouldn't expect HPers to mention it, but here you go.
1990 Boulder Population: 225,000
.48% ratio
2005 Boulder Population: 280,000
.27% ratio
So the story should read "adjusted for population growth the number of foreclosures as a percentage of the population is 56% as high as it was in 1988.
------------------------------------
County officials say there were 790 home foreclosures this year - the highest number in nearly 20 years.
The county's foreclosure record was set in 1988 with 1,080.
MILWAUKEE - There's been a dramatic increase in foreclosure lawsuits in the Milwaukee area.
Court records show that more than 5,000 area households might lose their homes in current foreclosures. That's a one-third increase on last year.
Credit counselors told the Journal Sentinel that a number of factors affect the amount of foreclosures that are happening. Those include interest rates climbing for adjustable rate mortgages
http://www.todaystmj4.com/_
content/news/topstories/
story_6314.asp
Post a Comment